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1.
Objective To determine whether any increase in the incidence of breast cancer in women detected by mammography is compensated for by a drop in the incidence after age 69, years when women are no longer invited for screening.Design Population based cohort study of incidence of breast cancer during the introduction of nationwide screening programmes.Setting Norway and Sweden.Participants All women aged above 30 years (1.4 and 2.9 million, respectively, in 2000).Main outcome measures Changes in age specific incidence rates of invasive breast cancer associated with the introduction of the screening programmes.Results As a result of screening the recorded incidence of breast cancer in women aged 50-69 years increased by 54% in Norway and 45% in Sweden. There was no corresponding decline in incidence after the age of 69 years.Conclusions Without screening one third of all invasive breast cancers in the age group 50-69 years would not have been detected in the patients'' lifetime. This level of overdiagnosis is larger than previously reported.  相似文献   

2.
Haukka J  Byrnes G  Boniol M  Autier P 《PloS one》2011,6(9):e22422

Background

Incidence-based mortality modelling comparing the risk of breast cancer death in screened and unscreened women in nine Swedish counties has suggested a 39% risk reduction in women 40 to 69 years old after introduction of mammography screening in the 1980s and 1990s.

Objective

We evaluated changes in breast cancer mortality in the same nine Swedish counties using a model approach based on official Swedish breast cancer mortality statistics, robust to effects of over-diagnosis and treatment changes. Using mortality data from the NordCan database from 1974 until 2003, we estimated the change in breast cancer mortality before and after introduction of mammography screening in at least the 13 years that followed screening start.

Results

Breast mortality decreased by 16% (95% CI: 9 to 22%) in women 40 to 69, and by 11% (95% CI: 2 to 20%) in women 40 to 79 years of age.

Discussion

Without individual data it is impossible to completely separate the effects of improved treatment and health service organisation from that of screening, which would bias our results in favour of screening. There will also be some contamination of post-screening mortality from breast cancer diagnosed prior to screening, beyond our attempts to adjust for delayed benefit. This would bias against screening. However, our estimates from publicly available data suggest considerably lower benefits than estimates based on comparison of screened versus non-screened women.  相似文献   

3.
BackgroundMammography screening programs (MSPs) aim to detect early-stage breast cancers in order to decrease the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and to reduce breast cancer mortality. We analyzed the time trends of advanced-stage breast cancer incidence rates in the target population before and after implementation of the MSP in a region of northwestern Germany.MethodsThe MSP in the Münster district started in October 2005. A total of 13,874 women with an incident invasive breast cancer (BC) was identified by the population-based epidemiological cancer registry between 2000 and 2013 in the target group 50–69 years. Multiple imputation methods were used to replace missing data on tumor stages (10.4%). The incidence rates for early-stage (UICC I) and advanced-stage (UICC II+) BC were determined, and Poisson regression analyses were performed to assess trends over time.ResultsThe incidence rates for UICC I breast cancers increased during the step-up introduction of the MSP and remained elevated thereafter. By contrast, after increasing from 2006 to 2008, the incidence rates of UICC II+ breast cancers decreased to levels below the pre-screening period. Significantly decreasing UICC II+ incidence rates were limited to the age group 55–69 years and reached levels that were significantly lower than incidence rates in the pre-screening period.DiscussionThe incidence rates of advanced-stage breast cancers decreased in the age groups from 55 years to the upper age limit for screening eligibility, but not in the adjacent age groups. The findings are consistent with MSP lead time effects and seem to indicate that the MSP lowers advanced-stage breast cancer rates in the target population.  相似文献   

4.
OBJECTIVE--To find out if breast carcinomas diagnosed in the 1980s differ from those diagnosed a few decades ago. DESIGN--Retrospective comparative cohort study. SETTING--City of Turku, south western Finland. PATIENTS--439 patients with breast carcinoma diagnosed in 1945-65 with a median follow up of 27 years (95% of all those histologically diagnosed in Turku); and 370 patients with breast carcinoma diagnosed in 1980-4 with a median follow up of 6 years (94% of all those histologically diagnosed in Turku). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Breast cancer incidence, mortality from breast cancer, age at diagnosis, stage of cancer, seven histological factors, DNA ploidy. RESULTS--Age adjusted incidence of breast cancer increased from 30.8/100,000 person years in 1953-7 to 62.2/100,000 in 1983-7; mortality in breast cancer increased from 16.7 to 17.2/100,000 person years. Survival of patients with stages II to IV (but not with stage I) improved. The mean age at diagnosis increased from 55.5 years in 1945-55 to 62.5 years in 1980-4 (p less than 0.0001); the proportion of patients with T0-1 carcinomas increased from 13% to 41% (p less than 0.0001) and with pN0 carcinomas from 43% to 55% (p = 0.003) from 1945-65 to 1980-4. There was no change in histological type or DNA ploidy of breast cancer, but in the 1980-4 cohort carcinomas were more often well differentiated, had lower mitotic counts and less nuclear pleomorphism, more often had a well defined tumour margin, and had less tumour necrosis. There was, however, no difference between the two cohorts in these histological characteristics except for tumour necrosis when they were compared in a multivariate log linear model at a given size of primary tumour. CONCLUSION--Improved survival with breast cancer can at least partially be explained by detection of increased numbers of small carcinomas with favourable histological characteristics.  相似文献   

5.
Objectives To investigate trends in the incidence of acute pancreatitis resulting in admission to hospital, and mortality after admission, from 1963 to 1998.Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for acute pancreatitis, linked to data from death certificates.Setting Southern England.Subjects 5312 people admitted to hospital with acute pancreatitis.Main outcome measures Incidence rates for admission to hospital, case fatality rates at 0-29 and 30-364 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.Results The incidence of acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital increased from 1963-98: age standardised incidence rates were 4.9 per 100 000 population in 1963-74, 7.7 in 1975-86, and 9.8 in 1987-98. Age standardised case fatality rates within 30 days of admission were 14.2% in 1963-74, 7.6% in 1975-86, and 6.7% in 1987-98. From 1975-98, standardised mortality ratios at 30 days were 30 in men and 31 in women (compared with the general population of equivalent age in the same period = 1), and they remained significantly increased until month 5 for men and month 6 for women.Conclusions Incidence rates for acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital rose in both men and women from 1963 to 1998, particularly among younger age groups. This probably reflects, at least in part, an increase in alcoholic pancreatitis. Mortality after admission has not declined since the 1970s. This presumably reflects the fact that no major innovations in the treatment of acute pancreatitis have been introduced. Pancreatitis remains a disease with a poor prognosis during the acute phase.  相似文献   

6.
A. A. Starreveld  G. B. Hill  L. B. Brown  M. Koch 《CMAJ》1981,125(10):1105-1109
The rates of registration of cases of in-situ and invasive cancer of the cervix in Alberta have fallen for women aged 35 and over since the introduction of screening in the early 1960s, as predicted by theory and described in Finland. However, for women aged 15 to 34 years of age the predicted pattern was followed only initially: the registration rate for in-situ and probably also invasive cancer increased after 1973. This could be due to an actual increase in the incidence of in-situ cancer of the cervix among younger women, as might be expected from the epidemiologic aspects of the disease, but it might also be due to increased recruitment of younger women to the screening program.  相似文献   

7.
A screening programme to detect preinvasive carcinoma of the cervix was started in British Columbia in 1949. Since 1970 the number of women who have been screened at least once has been maintained at about 85% of the population at risk. More than 500 000 cervical smears are being examined each year in the central laboratory. There has been an appreciable increase in the number of cases and rates of carcinoma in situ seen since 1970, particularly in women between 20 and 30 years of age. Since the programme started over 26 000 cases of squamous carcinoma in situ have been detected and treated. The incidence of clinically invasive squamous carcinoma of the cervix has fallen by 78% during the period under review, and mortality from squamous carcinoma of the cervix has fallen by 72%. A colposcopy programme, introduced throughout British Columbia over the past 12 years, has been important in reducing the problems of managing preinvasive lesions, particularly in younger women.It is concluded that the reduction in morbidity and mortality from invasive squamous cancer of the cervix in British Columbia over the past 30 years is directly attributable to the province wide screening programme and that a large potential increase in invasive cervical cancer rates among younger women is being prevented.  相似文献   

8.
OBJECTIVES--To determine the incidence of oral cancer in Scotland between 1960 and 1989 and oral cancer mortality from 1911 to 1989. SETTING--Data were obtained on oral cancer incidence from the information and statistics division of the Common Services Agency of the Scottish Health Service and mortality data from the office of the registrar general for Scotland. RESULTS--Mortality from intraoral cancers in Scotland substantially declined throughout this century until the mid-1970s. This trend, however, was then reversed, and fourfold increases in incidence were observed in younger age groups after 1960. Death rates in these younger age groups increased to levels previously recorded in the 1940s. These increases seemed to be cohort based and may therefore continue into the future. CONCLUSIONS--Reasons for increasing rates among younger age groups are speculative and rely on combining knowledge about risk factors and available ecological data. Though increases in incidence at younger ages do not result in a large change in the number of cases diagnosed, possible similar increases continuing into older ages, when oral cancer is more common, will correspond to a much larger increase in the actual number of cases. Given that such a large attributable risk is associated with tobacco and alcohol, however, these increases may be preventable.  相似文献   

9.
Screening has proved effective for only two cancer sites, the breast and the cervix uteri. Only for these, therefore, should screening be a part of routine clinical practice. The degree to which screening is effective depends on whether appropriate groups are screened. For cancer of the breast, current evidence justifies mammographic screening every two years only from the age of 50, continuing at least to the age of 70. The place of breast self-examination and physical examination of the breasts is under investigation, but these procedures should probably be used in all women after the age of 40. For cancer of the cervix, nearly maximal efficacy is obtained by screening sexually active women every three years from the age of 25 to 60. Older women who have not been screened regularly should be screened. Other screening techniques to detect cancers, such as the rectal examination, sigmoidoscopy, and fecal occult blood tests for colorectal cancer, are still experimental. Organizational and other difficulties will prevent screening programs from making a major contribution to reducing overall cancer mortality by the year 2000. If organizational problems can be overcome, however, screening may control invasive cancer of the cervix and make a major contribution in reducing breast cancer mortality in the future.  相似文献   

10.
Background: The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening, with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. Materials and Methods: The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US [1]. Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Results: Twenty-year forecasts indicate an overall decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline appears to be steeper among white women aged 55–73 and black women aged 60–84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating there is no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years. Conclusion: White women have smooth and consistent patterns in breast cancer mortality rates for all age-groups whereas the mortality rates for black women are much more variable. The projections suggest, for some age groups, black American women may not benefit equally from the overall decline in breast cancer mortality in the United States.  相似文献   

11.
BackgroundPopulation trends in PSA testing and prostate cancer incidence do not perfectly correspond. We aimed to better understand relationships between trends in PSA testing, prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Australia and factors that influence them.MethodsWe calculated and described standardised time trends in PSA tests, prostate biopsies, treatment of benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH) and prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Australia in men aged 45–74, 75–84, and 85 + years.ResultsPSA testing increased from its introduction in 1989 to a peak in 2008 before declining in men aged 45–84 years. Prostate biopsies and cancer incidence fell from 1995 to 2000 in parallel with decrease in trans-urethral resections of the prostate (TURP) and, latterly, changes in pharmaceutical management of BPH. After 2000, changes in biopsies and incidence paralleled changes in PSA screening in men 45–84 years, while in men ≥85 years biopsy rates stabilised, and incidence fell. Prostate cancer mortality in men aged 45–74 years remained low throughout. Mortality in men 75–84 years gradually increased until mid 1990s, then gradually decreased. Mortality in men ≥ 85 years increased until mid 1990s, then stabilised.ConclusionAge specific prostate cancer incidence largely mirrors PSA testing rates. Most deviation from this pattern may be explained by less use of TURP in management of BPH and consequent less incidental cancer detection in TURP tissue specimens. Mortality from prostate cancer initially rose and then fell below what it was when PSA testing began. Its initial rise and fall may be explained by a possible initial tendency to over-attribute deaths of uncertain cause in older men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer to prostate cancer. Decreases in mortality rates were many fold smaller than the increases in incidence, suggesting substantial overdiagnosis of prostate cancer after introduction of PSA testing.  相似文献   

12.
Background: Implementation of mammography screening and advances in breast cancer treatment are considered as main reasons for the decline in breast cancer mortality observed in many industrialized countries during the past two decades. The purpose of this study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of trends in breast cancer incidence, mortality and survival by age and stage in Germany. Methods: Data from the population based Saarland Cancer Registry including patients diagnosed with breast cancer from 1972 to 2007 were used. Period analysis methods were employed to calculate 5-year relative survival and its trends. Results: Mortality started to decline during the 1990s, and a previous increase in incidence levelled off in the early 21st century. Overall age-standardized 5-year relative survival of invasive breast cancer steadily increased during the past three decades to 83% in 2004–2008. This increase was mostly due to an increase in survival for patients with localized cancers and locally or regionally spread tumours (increase of age-standardized 5-year relative survival from 92% to 98% and from 65% to 80%, respectively, between 1992 and 2008), whereas age-standardized 5-year relative survival essentially remained unchanged at levels close to 21% in patients with metastasized cancer. For women aged 70 years or older 5-year relative survival and its increase over time were inferior compared to younger patients. Conclusions: The observed trends in population based survival suggest that advances in treatment of early breast cancer have substantially contributed to the gain in prognosis. The poor prognosis of metastasized breast cancer patients and the increasing age gradient in 5-year relative survival call for enhanced efforts for early detection and more rigorous treatment of elderly patients.  相似文献   

13.
BackgroundThis study examined age distributions and age-specific incidence of screened cancers by Aboriginal status in New South Wales (NSW) to consider the appropriateness of screening target age ranges.MethodsThe NSW Cancer Registry identified invasive (female) breast, cervical and bowel cancers in people diagnosed in 2001–2014.ResultsAboriginal people were younger at diagnosis with higher proportions of breast and bowel cancers diagnosed before the screening target age range (<50 years) compared with non-Aboriginal people (30.6% vs. 22.8%, and 17.3% vs. 7.3%, respectively). Age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were lower/similar for breast and bowel cancers in younger and higher in older Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. All age-specific cervical cancer IRRs were higher for Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal people.ConclusionAlthough higher proportions of breast and colorectal cancers were diagnosed before screening commencement age in Aboriginal people, this does not necessarily indicate a need for earlier screening commencement. Other aspects needing consideration include benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.  相似文献   

14.
BackgroundGeographical disparities in breast cancer incidence and outcomes are reported worldwide. Women of African descent show lower incidence, higher mortality rates and earlier age of onset. We analyzed data from the cancer registry of Guadeloupe for the period 2008–2013.MethodsWe describe breast cancer characteristics by molecular subtype, as well as estimated observed and net survival. We used Cox proportional hazard models to determine associations between cancer subtypes and death rate, adjusted for variables of interest.ResultsOverall, 1275 cases were recorded with a mean age at diagnosis of 57(±14) years. World standardized incidence and mortality were respectively 71.9/100,000 and 14.1/100,000 person-years. Age-specific incidence rates were comparable to European and US populations below the age of 45, and higher in Guadeloupean women aged between 45 and 55 years. Overall, 65.1% of patients were hormone receptor (HR)+ and 20.1% were HR-. Triple negative breast cancers (TNBC) accounted for 14% of all cases, and were more frequent in patients under 40 (21.6% vs. 13.4%, p = 0.02). Five-year net survival was 84.9% [81.4-88.6]. It was higher for HR+/Her2+ and HR+/Her2- subtypes, and lower for HR-/Her2+ and TNBC patients.ConclusionWe found high age-specific incidence rates of breast cancer in women aged 45 to 55 years, which warrants further investigation in our population. However, this population of mainly African descent had good overall survival rates, and data according to subtypes are consistent with those reported internationally. These results may suggest that poorer survival in other African descent populations may not be an inherent feature of the disease but may be amenable to improvement.  相似文献   

15.
In Croatia, there are about 355 incident cases and about 100 deaths from cervical cancer every year. The aim of this study is to present the trends of cervical cancer incidence and mortality and to propose preventive strategies for cervical cancer in Croatia. Age-standardised and age-specific cervical cancer incidence rates were calculated for the period 1985-2004. For cervical cancer mortality data, the WHO Mortality Database was used. After an early decrease of cervical cancer incidence and mortality following the introduction of opportunistic screening in Croatia, no further decrease has been observed since the 1990s. An increase in incidence over the last 20 years was observed in the age-groups 40-44 and 45-49 years. To reduce cervical cancer rates, an organised cervical cancer screening programme is essential. In addition, HPV vaccination should be introduced in the school vaccination programme to achieve further reductions in cervical cancer incidence in the future.  相似文献   

16.
Cancer incidence rates are presented for the Calabar Cancer Registry, a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) covering the population of two Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Calabar the capital of Cross-River State, Nigeria. (375,196 inhabitants in 2006). During the period 2009–2013, a total of 719 new cases were registered comprising 320 men (an age standardised incidence rate (ASR) of 78.8 per 100,000) and 399 women (ASR of 86.9 per 100,000).Breast and cervical cancers account for 60.4% of all cancers in women, with breast cancer (ASR 35 per 100,000) almost twice as common as cervix cancer (ASR 21 per 100,000) and occurring in rather younger women. Prostate cancer was the most common cancer in men (ASR 50.8 per 100,000).Hodgkin’s lymphoma was common in both sexes, and there were moderate numbers of HIV-related cancers recorded (Kaposi sarcoma, non Hodgkin lymphoma, and squamous cell carcinomas of conjunctiva).  相似文献   

17.
OBJECTIVES: To investigate the recent fall in mortality from breast cancer in England and Wales, and to determine the relative contributions of improvements in treatment and earlier detection of tumours. DESIGN: Retrospective study of all women with breast cancer registered by the East Anglian cancer registry and diagnosed between 1982 and 1989. SUBJECTS: 3965 patients diagnosed 1982-5 compared with 4665 patients diagnosed 1986-9, in three age groups 0-49, 50-64, > or = 65 years, with information on stage at diagnosis and survival. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three year relative survival rates by time period, age group, and stage; relative hazard ratios for each time period and age group derived from Cox''s proportional hazards model, adjusted for single year of age and stage. RESULTS: Survival improved in the later time period, although there was little stage specific improvement. The proportion of early stage tumours increased especially in the 50-64 year age group, and adjustment for stage accounted for over half of the improvement in survival in women aged under 65 years. CONCLUSION: Over half of the drop in mortality in women aged under 65 years seems to be attributable to earlier detection of tumours, which has been observed since the mid-1980s. This could have resulted from an increase in breast awareness predating the start of the breast screening programme.  相似文献   

18.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of screening for breast cancer as a public health policy. DESIGN: Follow up in 1987-92 of Finnish women invited to join the screening programme in 1987-9 and of the control women (balanced by age and matched by municipality of residence), who were not invited to the service screening. SETTING: Finland. SUBJECTS: Of the Finnish women born in 1927-39, 89893 women invited for screening and 68862 controls were followed; 1584 breast cancers were diagnosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rate ratio of deaths from breast cancer among the women invited for screening to deaths among those not invited. RESULTS: There were 385 deaths from breast cancer, of which 127 were among the 1584 incident cases in 1987-92. The rate ratio of death was 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.53 to 1.09). The effect was larger and significant (0.56; 0.33 to 0.95) among women aged under 56 years at entry. 20 cancers were prevented (one death prevented per 10000 screens). CONCLUSIONS: A breast screening programme can achieve a similar effect on mortality as achieved by the trials for breast cancer screening. However, it may be difficult to justify a screening programme as a public health policy on the basis of the mortality reduction only. Whether to run a screening programme as a public health policy also depends on its effects on the quality of life of the target population and what the resources would be used for if screening was not done. Given all the different dimensions in the effect, mammography based breast screening is probably justifiable as a public health policy.  相似文献   

19.
Z Mah  H Bryant 《CMAJ》1992,146(12):2167-2174
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are age-related differences in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer and whether the differences reflect the age-specific Canadian recommendations on breast cancer screening. DESIGN: Telephone survey. SETTING: Two cities and five towns and their surrounding areas in Alberta. PARTICIPANTS: The age-specific, randomly selected sample comprised 1284 women aged 40 to 75 years who did not have breast cancer. Of the 1741 eligible women who were contacted, 1350 (78%) agreed to participate; 66 were excluded because of age ineligibility or a history of breast cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Frequency of knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer, by age group. RESULTS: Knowledge of breast cancer risk factors was generally low and decreased with age. Few women were aware of the Canadian recommendations on breast self-examination, physical examination of the breasts by a health care practitioner and mammographic screening. Older women believed they were less susceptible to breast cancer than younger women and were less likely to have positive attitudes toward screening. Self-examination was performed 9 to 15 times per year by 424 women (33%), and 810 (63%) had been examined by a health care professional in the past year. Although 664 (52%) had undergone mammography, the proportion decreased with age after age 59. The main barriers to mammography were lack of physician referral and the woman''s belief that the procedure is unnecessary if she is healthy. CONCLUSIONS: Education is needed to increase breast cancer knowledge, promote the Canadian recommendations for early detection of breast cancer and decrease negative beliefs about the disease. Changes in the behaviour of women and physicians are needed to increase the use of breast self-examination, clinical breast examination by a health care professional and mammographic screening. Reaching women in the upper range (60 to 69 years) of the target group for mammographic screening should be a focus in promoting early detection of breast cancer.  相似文献   

20.
Introduction: Cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary are responsible for 30% of the cancer deaths in Spanish women. In recent decades, Spain has experienced important socioeconomic transformations, which may have affected mortality trends. We present the current situation of mortality in Spain due to cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary, as well as trends over 1980–2006. Methods: Data on population and deaths due to cancers of the breast, uterus and ovary were obtained from records of the National Statistics Institute. Overall and age-specific changes in mortality of these tumors were studied using change-point Poisson regression models. Results: Breast cancer was responsible for more than 140,000 deaths of females in 1980–2006. Trend analysis of breast cancer mortality of women of all ages showed that rates increased 2.9% annually until 1992 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5, 3.3). After 1992, mortality declined steadily at a rate of ?2.1% per year (95% CI = ?2.4, ?1.8). The number of deaths due to cancers of the uterus was 49,287 between the years 1980 and 2006. Uterine cancer mortality registered a steady decrease of ?1.9% every year since 1980 (95% CI = ?2.1, ?1.8). Ovarian cancer caused 36,157 deaths during the same period, with rates in women older than 50 years more than ten-fold those of younger women. Trend analysis showed a sharp increase of mortality up to 1998 (4.4% annually; 95% CI = 3.9, 4.8) followed by a stabilization. Conclusion: The downturn observed in mortality for these tumors mainly reflects improved survival as a result of earlier diagnosis and better cancer treatments. Cancer management is moving in the right direction in Spain.  相似文献   

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