Historical surveys reveal a long‐term decline in muskrat populations

The muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) is an iconic species in Canada, valued for both its fur and its integral role in wetland ecosystems, and widely regarded for its perseverance. However, the resilience of this semiaquatic mammal seems to be in question now as increasing evidence points to widespread population declines. Recent analyses of harvest data across North America suggest a reduction in their numbers, but this has not been widely corroborated by population surveys. In this study we replicated historic muskrat house count surveys at two large Great Lakes coastal wetlands and present confirmation that declines in muskrat harvest correspond to actual declines in muskrat abundance. At the Point Pelee National Park marsh and the Matchedash Bay‐Gray Marsh wetland we found that mean muskrat house counts declined by 93% and 91% respectively between historic surveys 40–50 yrs ago and contemporary surveys over the past 7 yrs. The factors responsible for these dramatic declines remain unclear but there may be a relationship with changes in the habitat quality of these wetlands that have occurred over the same time frame. Not only is the loss of muskrats an issue for the resulting loss of the wetland ecosystem services they provide, but it may be an indication of broader marsh ecosystem degradation. As such, a scarcity of muskrats should be considered a red flag for the state of biodiversity in our wetlands. Continued surveys and ongoing research are needed to shed more light on the current status of muskrat populations and their marsh habitats across their native range.     

Intermediate disturbances are a key driver of long‐term tree demography across old‐growth temperate forests

Disentangling the relative influence of background versus disturbance related mortality on forest demography is crucial for understanding long‐term dynamics and predicting the influence of global change on forests. Quantifying the rates and drivers of tree demography requires direct observations of tree populations over multiple decades, yet such studies are rare in old‐growth forest, particularly in the temperate zone of Europe. We use multi‐decade (1980–2020) monitoring of permanent plots, including observations of mode of mortality and disturbance events, to quantify rates and drivers of tree demography across a network of old‐growth remnants in temperate mountain forests of Slovenia. Annual rates of mortality and recruitment varied markedly among sites and over time; census intervals that captured intermediate severity canopy disturbances caused subtle peaks in annual mortality (e.g., >2%/year), while rates of background mortality in non‐disturbed intervals averaged about 1%/year. Roughly half of the trees died from modes of mortality associated with disturbance (i.e., uprooting or snapped‐alive). Results of a Bayesian multilevel model indicate that beech (Fagus sylvatica) had a higher likelihood of disturbance related mortality compared to fir (Abies alba), which mainly died standing, and there was a notable increase in the odds of disturbance mortality with increasing diameter for all species. Annual recruitment rates were consistently low at sites (<0.5%) that lacked evidence of disturbance, but often exceeded 3% on sites with higher levels of past canopy mortality. Recruitment was dominated by beech on sites with more diffuse background mortality, while the less shade tolerant maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) recruited following known disturbance events. Our study highlights the important role of stand‐scale, partial canopy disturbance for long‐term forest demography. These results suggest that subtle climate‐driven changes in the regime of intermediate severity disturbances could have an important influence on future forest dynamics and warrant attention.     

Competition dynamics in long‐term propagations of Schizosaccharomyces pombe strain communities

Experimental evolution studies with microorganisms such as bacteria and yeast have been an increasingly important and powerful tool to draw long‐term inferences of how microbes interact. However, while several strains of the same species often exist in natural environments, many ecology and evolution studies in microbes are typically performed with isogenic populations of bacteria or yeast. In the present study, we firstly perform a genotypic and phenotypic characterization of two laboratory and eight natural strains of the yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe. We then propagated, in a rich resource environment, yeast communities of 2, 3, 4, and 5 strains for hundreds of generations and asked which fitness‐related phenotypes—maximum growth rate or relative competitive fitness—would better predict the outcome of a focal strain during the propagations. While the strain''s growth rates would wrongly predict long‐term coexistence, pairwise competitive fitness with a focal strain qualitatively predicted the success or extinction of the focal strain by a simple multigenotype population genetics model, given the initial community composition. Interestingly, we have also measured the competitive fitness of the ancestral and evolved communities by the end of the experiment (≈370 generations) and observed frequent maladaptation to the abiotic environment in communities with more than three members. Overall, our results aid establishing pairwise competitive fitness as good qualitative measurement of long‐term community composition but also reveal a complex adaptive scenario when trying to predict the evolutionary outcome of those communities.     

Post‐fire carbon dynamics in the tropical peat swamp forests of Brunei reveal long‐term elevated CH4 flux

Tropical peatlands hold about 15%–19% of the global peat carbon (C) pool of which 77% is stored in the peat swamp forests (PSFs) of Southeast Asia. Nonetheless, these PSFs have been drained, exploited for timber and land for agriculture, leading to frequent fires in the region. The physico‐chemical characteristics of peat, as well as the hydrology of PSFs are affected after a fire, during which the ecosystem can act as a C source for decades, as C emissions to the atmosphere exceed photosynthesis. In this work, we studied the longer‐term impact of fires on C cycling in tropical PSFs, hence we quantified the magnitude and patterns of C loss (CO₂, CH₄ and dissolved organic carbon) and soil‐water quality characteristics in an intact and a degraded burnt PSF in Brunei Darussalam affected by seven fires over the last 40 years. We used natural tracers such as ¹⁴C to investigate the age and sources of C contributing to ecosystem respiration (R_eco) and CH₄, while we continuously monitored soil temperature and water table (WT) level from June 2017 to January 2019. Our results showed a major difference in the physico‐chemical parameters, which in turn affected C dynamics, especially CH₄. Methane effluxes were higher in fire‐affected areas (7.8 ± 2.2 mg CH₄ m^?2 hr^?1) compared to the intact PSF (4.0 ± 2.0 mg CH₄ m^?2 hr^?1) due to prolonged higher WT and more optimal methanogenesis conditions. On the other hand, we did not find significant differences in R_eco between burnt (432 ± 83 mg CO₂ m^?2 hr^?1) and intact PSF (359 ± 76 mg CO₂ m^?2 hr^?1). Radiocarbon analysis showed overall no significant difference between intact and burnt PSF with a modern signature for both CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes implying a microbial preference for the more labile C fraction in the peat matrix.     

Non‐zero‐sum neutrality test for the tropical rain forest community using long‐term between‐census data

For community ecologists, “neutral or not?” is a fundamental question, and thus, rejecting neutrality is an important first step before investigating the deterministic processes underlying community dynamics. Hubbell''s neutral model is an important contribution to the exploration of community dynamics, both technically and philosophically. However, the neutrality tests for this model are limited by a lack of statistical power, partly because the zero‐sum assumption of the model is unrealistic. In this study, we developed a neutrality test for local communities that implements non‐zero‐sum community dynamics and determines the number of new species (N _sp) between observations. For the non‐zero‐sum neutrality test, the model distributed the expected N _sp, as calculated by extensive simulations, which allowed us to investigate the neutrality of the observed community by comparing the observed N _sp with distributions of the expected N _sp derived from the simulations. For this comparison, we developed a new “non‐zero‐sum N _sp test,” which we validated by running multiple neutral simulations using different parameter settings. We found that the non‐zero‐sum N _sp test rejected neutrality at a near‐significance level, which justified the validity of our approach. For an empirical test, the non‐zero‐sum N _sp test was applied to real tropical tree communities in Panama and Malaysia. The non‐zero‐sum N _sp test rejected neutrality in both communities when the observation interval was long and N _sp was large. Hence, the non‐zero‐sum N _sp test is an effective way to examine neutrality and has reasonable statistical power to reject the neutral model, especially when the observed N _sp is large. This unique and simple approach is statistically powerful, even though it only employs two temporal sequences of community data. Thus, this test can be easily applied to existing datasets. In addition, application of the test will provide significant benefits for detecting changing biodiversity under climate change and anthropogenic disturbance.     

Rethinking long‐term vegetation dynamics: multiple glacial refugia and local expansion of a species complex

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics.     

Evidence of low within‐pair genetic relatedness in a relict population of Thorn‐tailed Rayadito despite long‐term isolation

Investigating whether mating patterns are biased in relation to kinship in isolated populations can provide a better understanding of the occurrence of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in wild populations. Here, we report on the genetic relatedness (r) among breeding pairs in a relict population of Thorn‐tailed Rayadito (Aphrastura spinicauda) in north‐central Chile that has experienced a long‐term history of isolation. We used simulations based on 8 years of data to assess whether mating is random with respect to relatedness. We found that mean and median population values of pair relatedness tended to be lower than randomly generated values, suggesting that mating is not random with respect to kinship. We hypothesize that female‐biased dispersal is the main mechanism reducing the likelihood of mating among kin, and that the proportion of related pairs (i.e., r > 0.125) in the study population (25%) would presumably be higher in the absence of sex‐biased dispersal. The occurrence of other mechanisms such as extra‐pair copulations, delayed breeding, and active inbreeding avoidance through kin discrimination cannot be dismissed and require further study.     

Testing the Wiegand–Milton model: A long‐term experiment to understand mechanisms driving vegetation dynamics in arid shrublands

The Wiegand and Milton (1996) simulation model predicts that vegetation dynamics in arid shrublands are characterized by event‐driven stochasticity (weather events), and demographic inertia (persistence of a species in a community) that lead to a lagged response in vegetation compositional change. Slow plant growth is one of the mechanisms driving slow vegetation change. We test this model at the same location (Tierberg Long‐term Ecological Research site) on which the model was based. Three dwarf shrub species, differing in palatability, were tracked over 25 years (1988–2014) at two levels of the past herbivory (pre‐1960) and three levels of the present herbivory (post‐1988). In the period between 1960 and 1988, all sites were grazed at the recommended agricultural stocking rate. For each species, plant density and a number of size attributes (basal diameter, height, canopy area) were surveyed. Analyses using a two‐way Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) took initial starting size into consideration. As the model predicted, event‐driven stochasticity (rainfall) resulted in an increase in density of the smaller size classes following a single large recruitment event across all grazing regimes for the palatable and unpalatable species. Size‐class distribution curve types remained unchanged illustrating that population demography remains unaffected for long periods and responses are slow (lagged response). Slow plant growth was evident in that there were no changes in height, canopy area, or density under present grazing regimes over the 25‐year period. Palatable species had a reduced canopy area and density compared to unpalatable species. Our findings provide empirical evidence supporting the predictions of the Wiegand and Milton (1996) model, notably event‐driven stochasticity, demographic inertia, and a lagged response in vegetation change in arid shrublands. In addition, our results support the model assumption of the significance of slow growth in long‐lived plant species and the influence of grazing regime.     

gB co‐immunization with GP96 enhances pulmonary‐resident CD8 T cells and exerts a long‐term defence against MCMV pneumonitis

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection in the respiratory tract leads to pneumonitis in immunocompromised hosts without available vaccine. Considering cytomegalovirus (CMV) mainly invades through the respiratory tract, CMV‐specific pulmonary mucosal vaccine development that provides a long‐lasting protection against CMV challenge gains our attention. In this study, N‐terminal domain of GP96 (GP96‐NT) was used as a mucosal adjuvant to enhance the induction of pulmonary‐resident CD8 T cells elicited by MCMV glycoprotein B (gB) vaccine. Mice were intranasally co‐immunized with 50 μg pgB and equal amount of pGP96‐NT vaccine 4 times at 2‐week intervals, and then i.n. challenged with MCMV at 16 weeks after the last immunization. Compared with pgB immunization alone, co‐immunization with pgB/pGP96‐NT enhanced a long‐lasting protection against MCMV pneumonitis by significantly improved pneumonitis pathology, enhanced bodyweight, reduced viral burdens and increased survival rate. Moreover, the increased CD8 T cells were observed in lung but not spleen from pgB/pGP96‐NT co‐immunized mice. The increments of pulmonary CD8 T cells might be mainly due to non‐circulating pulmonary‐resident CD8 T‐cell subset expansion but not circulating CD8 T‐cell populations that home to inflammation site upon MCMV challenge. Finally, the deterioration of MCMV pneumonitis by depletion of pulmonary site‐specific CD8 T cells in mice that were pgB/pGP96‐NT co‐immunization might be a clue to interpret the non‐circulating pulmonary‐resident CD8 T subset expansion. These data might uncover a promising long‐lasting prophylactic vaccine strategy against MCMV‐induced pneumonitis.     

Arid vegetation in disequilibrium with livestock grazing: Evidence from long‐term exclosures

In recent decades, the conventional equilibrium paradigm for explaining rangeland vegetation dynamics has been challenged. Proponents of an alternative non‐equilibrium paradigm argue that in variable rangeland environments, external climatic events are critical to vegetation dynamics and there is little opportunity for plant–herbivore interactions to reach equilibrium. Understanding which paradigm more effectively describes an ecosystem has important consequences for management. In particular, some authors have argued that a focus on reducing stocking rates in non‐equilibrium systems may be futile, and management should be opportunistic in response to unpredictable rainfall events. We measured herbaceous biomass and plant species richness and abundance at five 14‐year exclosures on Innamincka Regional Reserve. Four were situated in the dunefields land system, and one on the Cooper Creek floodplain. We did not detect any significant differences between grazed and ungrazed treatments in total species richness or abundance, life form richness or abundance, or herbaceous biomass. Only one species, Portulaca oleracea, showed differences in abundance between treatments at more than one site, but the direction of these differences was not consistent. These results suggest that the non‐equilibrium paradigm more accurately describes vegetation dynamics in the dunefields and floodplains of north‐eastern South Australia. It is possible that some species had been lost from the study area prior to the establishment of the exclosures, thereby precluding recovery with protection from grazing; however, a regional analysis of the flora reveals little evidence of this. We argue that the dominance of ephemeral species confers resilience by limiting the development of strong feedbacks between grazing intensity and vegetation dynamics. Current grazing practices seem consistent with the conservation of plant species diversity across the dunefields and floodplains. Future studies should focus on the impacts of cattle grazing on areas of the landscape dominated by palatable perennials, as well as the small number of rare and potentially grazing‐sensitive species identified.     

CDK4/6 inhibitors induce replication stress to cause long‐term cell cycle withdrawal

CDK4/6 inhibitors arrest the cell cycle in G1‐phase. They are approved to treat breast cancer and are also undergoing clinical trials against a range of other tumour types. To facilitate these efforts, it is important to understand why a cytostatic arrest in G1 causes long‐lasting effects on tumour growth. Here, we demonstrate that a prolonged G1 arrest following CDK4/6 inhibition downregulates replisome components and impairs origin licencing. Upon release from that arrest, many cells fail to complete DNA replication and exit the cell cycle in a p53‐dependent manner. If cells fail to withdraw from the cell cycle following DNA replication problems, they enter mitosis and missegregate chromosomes causing excessive DNA damage, which further limits their proliferative potential. These effects are observed in a range of tumour types, including breast cancer, implying that genotoxic stress is a common outcome of CDK4/6 inhibition. This unanticipated ability of CDK4/6 inhibitors to induce DNA damage now provides a rationale to better predict responsive tumour types and effective combination therapies, as demonstrated by the fact that CDK4/6 inhibition induces sensitivity to chemotherapeutics that also cause replication stress.     

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long‐term avian studies

1. Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.
2. Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird''s (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life‐history traits.
3. We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.
4. We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

     

Distance‐dependent seedling mortality and long‐term spacing dynamics in a neotropical forest community

Negative distance dependence (NDisD), or reduced recruitment near adult conspecifics, is thought to explain the astounding diversity of tropical forests. While many studies show greater mortality at near vs. far distances from adults, these studies do not seek to track changes in the peak seedling curve over time, thus limiting our ability to link NDisD to coexistence. Using census data collected over 12 years from central Panama in conjunction with spatial mark‐connection functions, we show evidence for NDisD for many species, and find that the peak seedling curve shifts away from conspecific adults over time. We find wide variation in the strength of NDisD, which was correlated with seed size and canopy position, but other life‐history traits showed no relationship with variation in NDisD mortality. Our results document shifts in peak seedling densities over time, thus providing evidence for the hypothesized spacing mechanism necessary for diversity maintenance in tropical forests.