Dynamic habitat suitability modelling reveals rapid poleward distribution shift in a mobile apex predator

Many taxa are undergoing distribution shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, detecting a climate signal in mobile species is difficult due to their wide‐ranging, patchy distributions, often driven by natural climate variability. For example, difficulties associated with assessing pelagic fish distributions have rendered fisheries management ill‐equipped to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, leaving pelagic species and ecosystems vulnerable. Here, we demonstrate the value of citizen science data for modelling the dynamic habitat suitability of a mobile pelagic predator (black marlin, Istiompax indica) within the south‐west Pacific Ocean. The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of our occurrence data set (n = 18 717), collected at high resolution (~1.85 km²), enabled identification of suitable habitat at monthly time steps over a 16‐year period (1998–2013). We identified considerable monthly, seasonal and interannual variability in the extent and distribution of suitable habitat, predominately driven by chlorophyll a and sea surface height. Interannual variability correlated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with suitable habitat extending up to ~300 km further south during La Nina events. Despite the strong influence of ENSO, our model revealed a rapid poleward shift in the geometric mean of black marlin habitat, occurring at 88.2 km decade^?1. By incorporating multiple environmental factors at monthly time steps, we were able to demonstrate a rapid distribution shift in a mobile pelagic species. Our findings suggest that the rapid velocity of climate change in the south‐west Pacific Ocean is likely affecting mobile pelagic species, indicating that they may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.     

Evidence of artificial habitat use by a recovering marine predator in southern California

The giant sea bass Stereolepis gigas Ayres 1859 (GSB) is a critically endangered top marine predator in California. Since protection in 1982 and 1994, the population has appeared to increase, and individuals within a growing population may expand their ranges to new habitats to reduce intraspecific competition and increase foraging opportunities. In 2016–2018, two GSB tagged with acoustic transmitters were detected at artificial reefs for periods of up to 3 months during October–March, and one individual travelled 53 km from an offshore island to mainland California in 56 h. Artificial reefs may provide important foraging opportunities for these protected marine predators as they recover from exploitation.     

The effects of seed availability on habitat use by a specialist seed predator

Space-use patterns of seed predators are strongly affected by spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of different tree seeds, their major food source. However, most studies have measured relationships between overall food availability and space use, and there are few cases where effects of different food resources have been explored. We studied the effects of two food resources, Norway spruce and silver fir seeds, on space and habitat use in red squirrel in a subalpine conifer forest from 2000 to 2006. Fir seeds disperse in the autumn of the year they are produced, spruce the following spring. We estimated spruce and fir seed availability within individual home ranges and monitored home-range size using radiotelemetry. Males had larger home ranges than females and the sexes responded differently to variation in food and density. Spruce seed availability negatively affected home-range and core-area sizes of males in spring–summer. Space use was not affected by fir seed availability. Squirrels positively selected spruce for foraging and spruce was always preferred over fir. Our results showed that spruce, but not fir, affected space and habitat use of squirrels, suggesting they do not behaviourally respond to early seed dispersal in fir.     

Predation risk predicts use of a novel habitat

Predator–prey interactions are often highly co‐evolved, with selection over time for prey with morphological and behavioral traits that minimize predation risk. Consequently, in many environments prey choose among potential habitats according to their refuge value. It is unclear, however, when presented with new habitats, if prey are able to evaluate the predation risk of these relative to familiar habitats and utilize these in accordance with their value. We tested whether, along the east coast of the USA, native mud crabs Panopeus herbstii utilize the non‐native alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla according to its relative refuge value. Experiments examining predation by blue crabs Callinectes sapidus on mud crabs revealed that the non‐native alga had an intermediate refuge value relative to native oysters, which were the most protective, and unvegetated sediment, which was the least. In subsequent choice experiments, mud crabs selected oysters over alga over unvegetated sediment, in accordance with habitat refuge values. Further, in field experiments, the use of Gracilaria by mud crabs was inversely related to the proximity of the alga to the preferred habitat type, oysters, and was reduced by the presence of a blue crab predator. Consequently, mud crabs are utilizing the non‐native alga Gracilaria in accordance with its intermediate refuge value. The relative refuge value of non‐native vs native habitat‐forming species may provide a baseline expectation against which to measure the speed of learning and opportunism in the response of native prey to novel protective habitats.     

The possibility of predator avoidance by Lake Michigan zooplankton

Low densities of Diaptomus ashlandi, Diacyclops thomasi, and Daphnia galeata mendotae were measured at depths where Mysis relicta formed nighttime aggregations. Calculations suggest that mysid predation can not account for the rarity of prey animals at these depths, which further suggests that the prey avoided the mysids. Unlike D. galeata mendotae, Daphnia pulicaria was common in mysid aggregations. The somewhat larger size of D. pulicaria may reduce its vulnerability to mysid predation, and consequently may explain the vertical distribution differences between the two congeners. Vertical distributions of Limnocalanus macrurus and copepod nauplii showed no obvious relationships to the mysid distributions. These were the only two taxa with distributions that were correlated with chlorophyll a concentrations. All crustacean taxa were rare in the epilimnion at night when sonar recorded a dense fish school.     

Versatility in habitat use by a top aquatic predator, Esox lucius L.

The habitat selected by northern pike, Esox lucius , a solitary top aquatic predator, was evaluated using radio location and ultrasonic telemetry. These predators moved extensively throughout the lake and exhibited a distinct preference for shallow vegetated areas close to shore. Selection of habitat was significantly influenced by meteorological factors. On windy days pike chose habitats which were further from shore, but not necessarily deeper, than those chosen on calm days. On sunny days pike moved into habitats that were close to shore and relatively shallow. Habitat selection of pike was not significantly influenced by rain. Northern pike exhibited a much greater versatility in the range of habitats they utilized than was previously believed. We propose that such versatility is an important feature of the behaviour of top predators.     

A functional response model of a predator population foraging in a patchy habitat

1. Functional response models (e.g. Holling's disc equation) that do not take the spatial distributions of prey and predators into account are likely to produce biased estimates of predation rates. 2. To investigate the consequences of ignoring prey distribution and predator aggregation, a general analytical model of a predator population occupying a patchy environment with a single species of prey is developed. 3. The model includes the density and the spatial distribution of the prey population, the aggregative response of the predators and their mutual interference. 4. The model provides explicit solutions to a number of scenarios that can be independently combined: the prey has an even, random or clumped distribution, and the predators show a convex, sigmoid, linear or no aggregative response. 5. The model is parameterized with data from an acarine predator-prey system consisting of Phytoseiulus persimis and Tetranychus urticae inhabiting greenhouse cucumbers. 6. The model fits empirical data quite well and much better than if prey and predators were assumed to be evenly distributed among patches, or if the predators were distributed independently of the prey. 7. The analyses show that if the predators do not show an aggregative response it will always be an advantage to the prey to adopt a patchy distribution. On the other hand, if the predators are capable of responding to the distribution of prey, then it will be an advantage to the prey to be evenly distributed when its density is low and switch to a more patchy distribution when its density increases. The effect of mutual interference is negligible unless predator density is very high. 8. The model shows that prey patchiness and predator aggregation in combination can change the functional response at the population level from type II to type III, indicating that these factors may contribute to stabilization of predator-prey dynamics.     

Oviposition habitat selection for a predator refuge and food source in a mosquito

Abstract.  1. The influence of filamentous algae on oviposition habitat selection by the mosquito Anopheles pseudopunctipennis and the consequences of oviposition decisions on the diet, development, body size, and survival of offspring were examined.
2. A natural population of An. pseudopunctipennis in Chiapas, Mexico, oviposited almost exclusively in containers with filamentous algae. Algae represented 47% of the gut contents of mosquito larvae sampled from the natural population. Mosquito larvae fed on an exclusive diet of algae developed as quickly and achieved the same adult body size (wing length) as their conspecifics fed on a standard laboratory diet.
3. Multiple regression of survival of mosquito larvae on percentage surface area cover of algae (0–99%) and the density of predatory fish (zero to four fish per container) was best described by a second-order polynomial model. Increasing fish densities resulted in a reduction in mosquito survival in all algal treatments. The highest incidence of survival was observed at intermediate (66%) algal cover in all treatments.
4. The presence of fish significantly extended larval development times whereas algal cover had no significant effect. The presence of fish resulted in emergence of smaller adults due to reduced feeding opportunities and predator avoidance behaviour. Algal cover also affected mosquito wing length but differently at each fish density.
5. Oviposition habitat selection improves survival in the presence of predators and feeding opportunities for An. pseudopunctipennis larvae.     

Psychophysiological differentiation of musical effects by the degree of minute-rhythmic coupling

Psychophysiologic effect of music on the synchronization status were diagnosed by means of different coordination analyses in significant correlation with subjective judgments to aesthetic-emotional experience of various music genres. By the "Bolero" of Ravel and "symphony in C major" of Mozart the minute-rhythmic coupling degree (fraction of the frequency synchronizations of the modulating oscillations of neurovegetative functions in a definite frequency range), which was calculated by means of autocorrelation, is increased significantly to silents intervals and decreased by the oratorium "Dies Irae" of Penderecki. So in the fronto-cortico limbic emotion system music experience correlates with functional changes of the neurophysiologic state and measured consecutive variations in neurovegetative dynamic of coordination.     

Lake bathymetry and species occurrence predict the distribution of a lacustrine apex predator

This study examined the abiotic and biotic characteristics of ecosystems that allow expression of a life history called ferox trout, the colloquial name given to brown trout Salmo trutta adopting a piscivorous life history strategy, an apex predator in post‐glacial lakes in northern Europe. One hundred and ninety‐two lakes in Scotland show evidence of currently, or historically, supporting ferox S. trutta; their presence was predicted in logistic models by larger and deeper lakes with a large catchment that also support populations of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus.     

Role of food source and predator avoidance in habitat specialization by an octocoral-associated amphipod

Small marine invertebrates often use sessile organisms as microhabitats, which can provide food sources and/or serve as refuges from predators. Because of the availability of external food items such as epibionts and detritus in the marine environment, these invertebrates may not depend on the sessile organisms as sole food sources. In this study, I hypothesized that habitat specialization by a marine invertebrate is determined by factors other than food. Results of field surveys off the coast of the Izu Peninsula, on the eastern coast of Japan, showed that, with few exceptions, the distribution of the amphipod Incisocalliope symbioticus was restricted to the octocoral Melithaea flabellifera. When presented with several habitat options, I. symbioticus selected M. flabellifera most frequently, although some individuals chose the octocoral Acabaria japonica. The selection was proximately determined by water-borne cues from M. flabellifera that appear to be unrelated to the octocoral as a food source, since the amphipod preferred detritus to the octocoral. As a chemical refuge, M. flabellifera had an allelopathic effect that deterred fish predation on the exposed epifauna. With regard to octocoral habitat in the study area, I. symbioticus may be restricted to M. flabellifera because this was the only abundant octocoral consistently occurring in shallow water (≤10 m), where predation is intensive. The relationship between I. symbioticus and M. flabellifera was commensal and was ultimately driven by the value of M. flabellifera as a chemical refuge from predation, rather than its food value. This study supports the idea that protection from predators, rather than food utilization, can promote ecological specialization.     

Interactions between habitat heterogeneity and food affect reproductive output in a top predator

1. Habitat heterogeneity has important repercussions for species abundance, demography and life-history patterns. While habitat effects have been more thoroughly studied in top-down situations (e.g. in association with predation), their role in bottom-up situations (e.g. in association with food abundance) has been less explored and the underlying mechanism(s) behind the ecological patterns have not commonly been identified. 2. With material from 1993 to 2003, we test the hypothesis that the reproduction of Finnish northern goshawks Accipiter gentilis (L.) is bottom-up limited by habitat composition, especially in situations where the density of their main prey (grouse) is low. Special emphasis was placed on identifying the mechanism(s) behind potential habitat effects. 3. While laying date and large-scale variation in the main prey density (but not habitat composition) were related to the number of eggs goshawks laid, small-scale differences in alternative prey density between different territories later influenced how many young were fledged via the mechanism of habitat-dependent partial-brood loss. As a result of this mechanism, a difference in nestling condition also arose between goshawk territories with differing habitat compositions. 4. As the relative proportions of different landscape elements in a given landscape is a function of large-scale differences in geomorphology and land use, this means that the reproductive performance of goshawks as averaged over larger scales can be understood correctly only in respect to the fact that habitat gradients differ across landscapes. 5. In addition to being one of the first papers identifying the mechanism of partial brood loss as being primarily responsible for the habitat-specific differences in the production of young, this study further illustrates the need to identify small-scale mechanisms to correctly understand the large-scale patterns of reproductive performance in territorial species. The repercussions of the observed habitat effect for local population development are discussed.     

Assessment of spatial habitat heterogeneity by coupling data-driven habitat suitability models with a 2D hydrodynamic model in small-scale streams

Habitat assessment considering habitat quality and quantity is a key approach in conservation and restoration works for biodiversity and ecosystems. In this regard, application of hydrodynamic model for modeling instream habitat conditions and machine learning (ML) methods for modeling habitat suitability of a target species can contribute to better modeling practices in ecohydraulics. Despite the importance of small streams for aquatic ecosystems, previous studies in ecohydraulics have been conducted mainly in medium to large rivers, often disregarding small-scale streams such as agricultural canals. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the applicability of a coupled use of ML and a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model for assessing spatial habitat heterogeneity in small-scale agricultural canals in Japan. Using abundance data of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), four ML methods, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), classification and regression trees (CARTs), random forests (RF) and support vector machines (SVMs), were applied to develop habitat suitability models considering water depth and flow velocity. A 2D hydrodynamic model was developed based on field surveys in two types of agricultural canals, namely earthen and concrete-lined canals. Information entropy was used for assessing the spatial heterogeneity of instream habitat conditions. As a result, the hydrodynamic models could model instream habitat conditions in a reasonable accuracy. Despite the differences in accuracies in habitat modeling, the four ML methods illustrated similar habitat suitability information for Japanese medaka. The coupled ecohydraulics modeling approach could quantify habitat quality and its spatial heterogeneity, based on which the differences between the earthen and concrete-lined canals were quantitatively assessed. This study demonstrated the applicability of ML-based habitat suitability evaluation and a 2D hydrodynamic model for modeling the spatial distribution of habitat suitability and assessing its spatial heterogeneity. Further study, assessing the spatial heterogeneity in various types of flows including natural/artificial and small/large streams, can contribute to establish quantitative criteria for an ecologically sound habitat and improved ecofriendly construction works in small-scale rivers and streams.     

Integrating individual habitat choices and regional distribution of a biodiversity indicator and top predator

Aim Habitat selection studies have mainly focused on behavioural choices of individuals or on the habitat‐related regional distribution of a population, with little integration of the two approaches. This is despite the fact that traditional biogeography theory sees the geographical distribution of a species as the collective outcome of the adaptive habitat choices of individuals. Here, we integrate individual habitat choices with regional distribution through a bottom‐up Geographical Information System (GIS)‐based approach, by using a 9‐year data set on a large avian predator, the eagle owl (Bubo bubo L.). We further examine the potential population level and biodiversity consequences of this approach. Location The study was conducted in the Trento Region (central‐eastern Italian Alps) and in six other areas of the nearby Lombardia Region in the central Alps. Methods We used stepwise logistic regression to build a habitat suitability model discriminating between eagle owl territories and an equal number of random locations. The model was applied to the whole Trento region by means of a GIS so as to predict suitable habitat patches. The predicted regional distribution (presence–absence in 10‐km grid quadrats) was then compared with the observed one. Furthermore, we compared estimates of biodiversity in quadrats with and without eagle owls, so as to test whether the presence of this top predator may signal macro‐areas of high biodiversity. Results The logistic habitat suitability model showed that, compared with a random distribution, eagle owls selected low‐elevation breeding sites with high availability of prey‐rich habitats in their surroundings. Breeding performance increased with the availability of prey‐rich habitats, confirming the adaptiveness of the detected habitat choices. We applied the habitat suitability model to the 6200 km² study region by means of a GIS and found a close fit between the observed and predicted regional distribution. Furthermore, population abundance was positively related to the availability of habitat defined as suitable by the above analyses. Finally, high biodiversity levels were associated with owl presence and with the amount of suitable owl habitat, demonstrating that modelling habitat suitability of a properly chosen indicator species may provide key conservation information at the wider ecosystem level. Main conclusions Our bottom‐up modelling approach may increase the conservation‐value of habitat selection models, by (1) predicting local and regional distribution, (2) estimating regional population size, (3) stimulating further hypothesis testing, (4) forecasting the population effects of future habitat loss and degradation and (5) aiding in the identification and prioritization of high‐biodiversity areas.     

Cryptic population structure in a large,mobile mammalian predator: the Scandinavian lynx

The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) is an example of a species that has gone through a severe bottleneck, leading to near extinction in Scandinavia around 1930-- a pattern shared with several other large carnivorous mammals. Here we extend previous genetic analyses of northern European lynx, confirming that lynx from the Scandinavian Peninsula represent a distinct clade differing clearly from European conspecifics. Furthermore, and despite a recent bottleneck and subsequent range expansion, we detect marked genetic differentiation within Scandinavia. This differentiation is largely manifested as a north-south gradient, with a linear increase in the quantity FST/(1 - FST). Aided by computer simulations we find that this pattern is unlikely to have arisen by random genetic drift in the short time since lynx started to expand in the 1950s, suggesting that the spatial structure may predate the bottleneck. Individual-based analyses indicate that, instead of a continuous gradient, Scandinavian lynx may be structured into three more or less distinct groups, possibly corresponding to northern, central and southern subpopulations. The presence of such structuring was unknown previously and was unexpected from general considerations on the mobility of the species, historical data and the absence of geographical barriers. Our study demonstrates how molecular markers may be used to detect cryptic population structure, invisible using traditional methods.     

Oviposition habitat selection by mosquitoes in response to predator (Notonecta maculata) density

Abstract.  Some species of mosquitoes can detect the presence of predatory notonectid bugs and avoid oviposition in predator pools. The oviposition response of two mosquito species, Culiseta longiareolata Macquart and Culex laticinctus Edwards (Diptera: Culicidae), to a range of densities of the predator, Notonecta maculata Fabricius (Heteroptera: Notonectidae), was tested here. Densities of 0, 1, 2 or 4 Notonecta were established in 30-L artificial pools. Both mosquito species oviposited less in predator pools, but the response was unrelated to predator density, whereas vulnerability of Culiseta immatures to predation was density-dependent. Thus, although mosquitoes can detect Notonecta at any density within the range tested, they may be unable to discriminate among predator densities. The avoidance of predator pools by Culiseta , as well as its vulnerability to predation, occurred to a lesser degree than in earlier studies. This may have been due to the mitigating effects of components of the biotic community.     

Behavioral response of a mobile marine predator to environmental variables differs across ecoregions

Animal movement and habitat selection are in part a response to landscape heterogeneity. Many studies of movement and habitat selection necessarily use environmental covariates that are readily available over large‐scales, which are assumed representative of functional habitat features such as resource availability. For widely distributed species, response to such covariates may not be consistent across ecosystems, as response to any specific covariate is driven by its biological relevance within the context of each ecosystem. Thus, the study of any widely distributed species within a limited geographic region may provide inferences that are not widely generalizable. Our goal was to evaluate the response of a marine predator to a suite of environmental covariates across a wide ecological gradient. We identified two behavioral states (resident and transient) in the movements of shortfin mako sharks Isurus oxyrinchus tracked via satellite telemetry in two regions of the western North Atlantic Ocean: the tropical Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico marginal sea (CGM), and the temperate waters of the open western Atlantic Ocean (OWA). We compared patterns of resident behavior between regions, and modeled relationships between oceanographic variables and resident behavior. We tracked 39 sharks during 2013–2015. Resident behavior was associated with shallow, continental shelf and slope waters in both regions. In the OWA resident behavior was associated with low sea surface temperature and high primary productivity, however, sharks exhibited no response to either variable in the CGM. There was a negative relationship between sea‐surface height gradient (a proxy for oceanic fronts) and resident behavior in the OWA, and a positive relationship in the CGM. Our observations likely reflect shark responses to regional variability in factors responsible for the distribution and availability of prey. Our study illustrates the importance of studying widely distributed species in a consistent manner over large spatial scales.