1999‒2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒流行特征和气象变量的研究

目的 分析1999‒2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒（typhoid and paratyphoid fever,TPF）地方病区域流行特征和气象变量的关系,为TPF监测控制和危险因素评价提供科学依据。方法 采用描述流行病学方法和自主研发计算机软件建立中国疾病预防控制信息系统红塔区TPF病例分布与流行特征数据库,用Pearson相关分析和多元线性逐步回归分析研究TPF发病和气象变量关系。结果 1999‒2015年报告TPF病例数为8 398例,1999、2015年分别报告23、44例。1999‒2015年期间每年3~5月、6~10月、11月~次年2月分别为发病上升期（月均增长率63.8%）、高峰期（月均降低率2.0%）和下降期（月均降低率25.7%）,每年度病例数都呈现3月~10月季节性升高和11月~次年2月季节性降低;2000年8月至2010年12月每月病例数都大于8例,2000‒2002、2004‒2005、2005‒2007、2007‒2008、2008‒2010年出现五个高强度流行峰,峰期范围是12～24个月,周期范围是11～40个月;2001、2004、2006、2007、2009年五个高峰年度6~10月病例数范围分别为86～217、67～215、125～216、97～131、63～95例;1999、2000、2002、2003、2005、2008、2010、2015年八个低峰年度6月~10月病例数范围分别为1～3、1～17、32～60、30～43、46～55、43～78、22～61、2～11例。单因素分析TPF月平均发病率与月平均降雨量（r=0.825,P<0.01）、月平均气温（r=0.797,P<0.01）和月平均相对湿度（r=0.706,P<0.05）呈正相关;经多元逐步回归分析建立TPF月平均发病率（Y）与月平均降雨量（X）的拟合模型方程Y=4.563+0.051X。结论 红塔区TPF发病呈现季节性升高与降低、周期性流行、长期趋势特点;发病率与降雨量、气温、相对湿度呈正相关;传染源积累、重污染源形成、暴露人群增加驱动着流行特征与气象变量关系;相应规律、机制、政策、评估有助TPF的监测控制。     

Conflict and post-conflict behavior in a small group of chimpanzees

Chimpanzee research plays a central role in the discussions of conflict negotiation. Reconciliation, or the attraction and affiliation of former opponents following conflict, has been proposed as a central element of conflict negotiation in chimpanzees and various other taxa. In an attempt to expand the database of chimpanzee conflict resolution, conflict and post-conflict behavior were recorded for a small group of socially housed chimpanzees at the Chimpanzee and Human Communication Institute, at Central Washington University. Data were collected over six 6-week periods between 1997 and 2000, for a total of 840 hours of observation, resulting in a substantial post-conflict (PC) and matched control (MC) data set. The data demonstrate this group’s tendencies to maintain visual contact and closer proximity after conflicts. Dyadic corrected conciliatory tendencies ranged between 0 – 37.5% and averaged 17.25% across all dyads. Individual corrected conciliatory tendencies ranged between 5.8 and 32%. The results of this study combined with recent publications on captive and free-ranging chimpanzee post-conflict behavior suggest that variation in post-conflict behavior may be important to our understanding of chimpanzee conflict negotiation, and may also have implications for the design and management of captive chimpanzee enclosures and social groups, respectively.     

Examining complexities of forest cover change during armed conflict on Nicaragua’s Atlantic Coast

The effects of armed conflict on biodiversity are an emerging concern in conservation due in part to the occurrence of war in biodiversity hotspots, though few studies have addressed it. We investigate this topic by examining changes in forest cover on the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua from 1978 to 1993, a period covering their civil war. We predict an increase in forest cover between pre- and post-conflict periods as residents abandoned agriculture plots and migrated from conflict areas. We used a remote sensing approach to detect changes in forest cover area and fragmentation at two study sites. Results confirmed that in the first 5–7 years of the conflict, reforestation was greater than deforestation, but in the latter years of the conflict deforested land almost doubled that which was reforested. Although some forest loss was due to Category 4 Hurricane Joan, several conflict-related factors were partially responsible for these results, such as mass human migration and land reform. Understanding how and why forest cover changes during periods of conflict can help conservationists protect resources both during war and in the tumultuous period following the cessation of violence when nascent governments lack the power to effectively govern and community institutions are fractured by war. In areas where the livelihoods of people are directly dependent on local resources, anticipating ecological and social impacts can help improve future conservation efforts.     

Immediate and long-term management of gunshot wounds to the lower face

The steadily increasing level of urban violence and attempted suicides in the recent past has resulted in large numbers of gunshot injuries to the face from small-caliber weapons. Our experience with 35 consecutive cases of civilian gunshot wounds involving primarily the lower face is presented. Initial management included securing of the airway, control of bleeding, and treatment of coexisting injuries. After clinical and radiologic evaluation and conservative debridement of all devitalized tissues, the mandibular fractures were reduced and stabilized appropriately. Large bony defects were treated by stabilization of the mandibular segments followed by secondary bone grafting. Intraoral soft tissues were then repaired with local mucosal flaps or tongue flaps when necessary. Finally, the soft tissues were repaired by primary closure or local flaps. Distant flaps were used only as a secondary procedure. Our results are presented, the differences between civilian and military injuries are discussed, and the principles of gunshot ballistics are described. We conclude that most of these wounds can be treated in a relatively conservative manner immediately after the injury with good functional and cosmetic results.     

Trends in Malaria in Odisha,India—An Analysis of the 2003–2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program

Background

Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state.

Methods

Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003–2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003–2013 and 2014–2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003–2007) and post-intensification (2009–2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state.

Results

The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003–2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009–2013 as compared to that in 2003–2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017.

Conclusion

The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped improve its malaria situation in recent years. These successful measures need to be sustained and perhaps intensified further for eliminating malaria from Odisha.     

口腔颌面部爆炸伤的研究现状

口腔颌面部爆炸伤是指由致伤物爆炸所造成的口腔颌面部组织损伤,两种主要致伤因素是冲击波和高速破片,较一般火器伤而言,爆炸伤的致伤机制及致伤特点都有不同之处。对爆炸伤害的物理机制和病理生理反应方面研究有助于改进防护及改善治疗策略。本文在简述口腔颌面部爆炸伤的致伤因素和损伤特点的基础上,着重综述了动物模型和有限元模型的研究方法及结果,旨在为以后的模型研究提供思路和参考。     

Post-Conflict Affiliation in Barbary Macaques is Influenced by Conflict Characteristics and Relationship Quality, but Does Not Diminish Short-Term Renewed Aggression

Many group living primates have evolved mechanisms to repair their social relationships after conflicts ('reconciliation'). We analysed the post-conflict behaviour of female Barbary macaques, Macaca sylvanus , living in the enclosure 'La Forêt des Singes' at Rocamadour, France. Based on a sample of 914 conflicts, we investigated whether relationship (kinship, rank, affiliation, support and sex) and conflict characteristics (conflict intensity, context and duration) affected the quality and frequency of affiliative post-conflict interactions. Thirty-two per cent of all conflicts were followed by post-conflict affiliation. Rates of socio-positive interactions and support were better predictors of post-conflict affiliation than kinship or rank. Short conflicts were followed by post-conflict affiliation relatively more frequently, after a shorter latency, but only briefly, and such interactions were initiated by both parties equally frequently. The majority of affiliative post-conflict interactions occurred immediately after the end of the conflict. In sum, female Barbary macaques invest more in post-conflict affiliation with valuable partners, and they modulate their post-conflict behaviour in relation to conflict characteristics. Remarkably, affiliative post-conflict interactions increased the short-term probability of renewed aggression by the former aggressor to 16% compared with 9% for conflicts that were not followed by affiliative behaviour. Such renewed aggression after post-conflict affiliation occurred particularly frequently among females and after conflicts over food, suggesting that post-conflict affiliation sometimes falsely lures the former victim to stay in the vicinity, even at the risk of receiving renewed aggression.     

Diversity in the weapons of sexual selection: horn evolution in the beetle genus Onthophagus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)

Both ornaments and weapons of sexual selection frequently exhibit prolific interspecific diversity of form. Yet, most studies of this diversity have focused on ornaments involved with female mate choice, rather than on the weapons of male competition. With few exceptions, the mechanisms of divergence in weapon morphology remain largely unexplored. Here, we characterize the evolutionary radiation of one type of weapon: beetle horns. We use partial sequences from four nuclear and three mitochondrial genes to develop a phylogenetic hypothesis for a worldwide sample of 48 species from the dung beetle genus Onthophagus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). We then use these data to test for multiple evolutionary origins of horns and to characterize the evolutionary radiation of horns. Although our limited sampling of one of the world's most species-rich genera almost certainly underestimates the number of evolutionary events, our phylogeny reveals prolific evolutionary lability of these exaggerated sexually selected weapons (more than 25 separate gains and losses of five different horn types). We discuss these results in the context of the natural history of these beetles and explore ways that sexual selection and ecology may have interacted to generate this extraordinary diversity of weapon morphology.     

Possible relationship of cranial traumatic injuries with violence in the south‐east Iberian Peninsula from the Neolithic to the Bronze Age

The main aim of this study was to analyze the presence and distribution of cranial trauma, as possible evidence of violence, in remains from the Neolithic to Bronze Age from the SE Iberian Peninsula. The sample contains skulls, crania, and cranial vaults belonging to 410 prehistoric individuals. We also studied 267 crania from medieval and modern times for comparative purposes. All lesions in the prehistoric crania are healed and none of them can be attributed to a specific weapon. In all studied populations, injuries were more frequent in adults than in subadults and also in males than in females, denoting a sexual division in the risk of suffering accidents or intentional violence. According to the archeological record, the development of societies in the SE Iberian Peninsula during these periods must have entailed an increase in conflict. However, a high frequency of cranial traumatic injuries was observed in the Neolithic series, theoretically a less conflictive time, and the lowest frequency was in crania from the 3rd millennium B.C. (Copper Age), which is characterized by the archeologists as a period of increasing violence. The relatively large size and the high rate of injuries in Neolithic crania and the practice of cannibalism are strongly suggestive of episodes of interpersonal or intergroup conflict. The number and distribution of injuries in Bronze Age is consistent with the increase in violence at that time described by most archeologists. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Males that drop a sexually selected weapon grow larger testes

Costly sexually selected weapons are predicted to trade off with postcopulatory traits, such as testes. Although weapons can be important for achieving access to females, individuals of some species can permanently drop (i.e. autotomize) their weapons, without regeneration, to escape danger. We capitalized on this natural behavior to experimentally address whether the loss of a sexually selected weapon leads to increased testes investment in the leaf‐footed cactus bug, Narnia femorata Stål (Hemiptera: Coreidae). In a second experiment, we measured offspring production for males that lost a weapon during development. As predicted, males that dropped a hind limb during development grew significantly larger testes than the control treatments. Hind‐limb autotomy did not result in the enlargement of other nearby traits. Our results are the first to experimentally demonstrate that males compensate for natural weapon loss by investing more in testes. In a second experiment we found that females paired with males that lost a hind limb had 40% lower egg hatching success than females paired with intact males, perhaps because of lower mating receptivity to males with a lost limb. Importantly, in those cases where viable offspring were produced, males missing a hind limb produced 42% more offspring than males with intact limbs. These results suggest that the loss of a hind‐limb weapon can, in some cases, lead to greater fertilization success.     

Harder,better, faster,stronger: Weapon size is more sexually dimorphic than weapon biomechanical components in two freshwater anomuran species

Sexual selection influences the evolution of morphological traits that increase the likelihood of monopolizing scarce resources. When such traits are used during contests, they are termed weapons. Given that resources are typically linked to monopolizing mating partners, theory expects only males to bear weapons. In some species, however, females also bear weapons, although typically smaller than male weapons. Understanding why females bear smaller weapons can thus help us understand the selective pressures behind weapon evolution. However, most of our knowledge comes from studies on weapon size, while the biomechanics of weapons, such as the size of the muscles, efficiency, and shape are seldom studied. Our goal was to test if the theoretical expectations for weapon size sexual dimorphism also occur for weapon biomechanics using two aeglid crab species. Males of both species had larger claws which were also stronger than female claws. Male claws were also more efficient than females' claws (although we used only one species in this analysis). For weapon shape, though, only one species differed in the mean claw shape. Regarding scaling differences, in both species, male claws had higher size scaling than females, while only one species had a higher shape scaling. However, male weapons did not have higher scaling regarding strength and efficiency than females. Thus, males apparently allocate more resources in weapons than females, but once allocated, muscle and efficiency follow a similar developmental pathway in both sexes. Taken together, our results show that sexual dimorphism in weapons involves more than differences in size. Shape differences are especially intriguing because we cannot fully understand its causes. Yet, we highlight that such subtle differences can only be detected by measuring and analysing weapon shape and biomechanical components. Only then we might better understand how weapons are forged.     

Hospital admission for acute pancreatitis in an English population, 1963-98: database study of incidence and mortality

Objectives To investigate trends in the incidence of acute pancreatitis resulting in admission to hospital, and mortality after admission, from 1963 to 1998.Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for acute pancreatitis, linked to data from death certificates.Setting Southern England.Subjects 5312 people admitted to hospital with acute pancreatitis.Main outcome measures Incidence rates for admission to hospital, case fatality rates at 0-29 and 30-364 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.Results The incidence of acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital increased from 1963-98: age standardised incidence rates were 4.9 per 100 000 population in 1963-74, 7.7 in 1975-86, and 9.8 in 1987-98. Age standardised case fatality rates within 30 days of admission were 14.2% in 1963-74, 7.6% in 1975-86, and 6.7% in 1987-98. From 1975-98, standardised mortality ratios at 30 days were 30 in men and 31 in women (compared with the general population of equivalent age in the same period = 1), and they remained significantly increased until month 5 for men and month 6 for women.Conclusions Incidence rates for acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital rose in both men and women from 1963 to 1998, particularly among younger age groups. This probably reflects, at least in part, an increase in alcoholic pancreatitis. Mortality after admission has not declined since the 1970s. This presumably reflects the fact that no major innovations in the treatment of acute pancreatitis have been introduced. Pancreatitis remains a disease with a poor prognosis during the acute phase.     

Late Pliocene vegetation and climate of Zhangcun region,Shanxi, North China

To understand the Neogene climatic changes in eastern Asia and evaluate the intercontinental climatic differences, we have quantitatively reconstructed the vegetation successions and climatic changes in the late Pliocene Zhangcun area based on the palynological data and explored the regional climatic differences between central Europe and eastern Asia. The late Pliocene palynological assemblage of Zhangcun, Shanxi was composed of 63 palynomorphs, belonging to 50 families, covering angiosperms (90.2%), gymnosperms (9.7%), ferns (0.09%), and other elements (0.02%). Four periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. In period 1, a needle‐ and broad‐leaved mixed forest prevailed with a cool and dry climate. Period 2 was characterized by an expansion of forest with a warmer and wetter climate. The number of conifers increased and that of herbs decreased in period 3, and the climate became cool and dry. In period 4, the forest was dominated by conifers and reflecting a cooler climate. The data of seven climatic parameters in general and four periods estimated by the Coexistence Approach suggested that (1) The late Pliocene temperatures and precipitations were higher than today. (2) The Neogene climate of both Central Europe and North China exhibited a general cooling and drying trend although the mean annual temperature dropped by ca. 1 °C in North China, vs. ca. 7 °C in Central Europe from the middle Miocene to the late Pliocene. (3) The decline of the mean maximum monthly precipitation might signal a weakening of the summer monsoon. (4) The decline of both the mean coldest monthly temperature and the mean minimum monthly precipitation might be linked to the strengthening of the winter monsoon in eastern Asia. (5) The rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau strengthened the climatic cooling and drying during the late Pliocene of the Zhangcun region.     

Do reproductive characteristics of the species explain differences in the investment in weapon size present in males?

Sexually selected traits, such as male weapons, are highly variable in shape and size across species. However, little is known about the mechanisms that may govern this variation. Because males with greater investment in weapon size tend to win more fights, but also pay higher costs related to weapon development and maintenance, larger weapons should be expected only in species in which victory in male–male fights generate reproductive benefits that outweigh investment costs. Here, we hypothesized that the reproductive characteristics that increase the chances of winners to access females or to fertilize eggs will favor the evolution of larger weapons. To evaluate this hypothesis, we conducted a meta-analysis using arthropods as model organisms. To measure investment in weapon size, we gathered both Pearson correlation coefficient and the standardized (but non centralized) slope values for the relationship between weapon size and body size. We found that none of the reproductive characteristics we investigated was related to male weapon size. Thus, it seems that greater certainty of accessing a female or fertilizing female eggs with a victory does not modulate the investment in male weapon size. Perhaps the cost–benefit ratio between weapon size investment and reproductive success is not the main factor driving the variation in weapon size.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.     

Aggression and Reconciliation in Cebus capucinus

Most data relating to aggressive and conciliatory behaviors are from Old World primates. We recorded agonistic interactions and post-conflict behaviors in a group of 12 white-faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus). After a conflict, we followed the aggressee as the focal individual during a 10-min postconflict period. We also conducted matched-control observations on the same individual. Conflicts involving physical contact were significantly bidirectional, and conflicts without physical contact were preferably unidirectional. Reconciliation was not be demonstrated at the group level. However, reconciliation occurred in kin and non-kin male/female dyads: their conciliatory tendencies were 48.1% and 21.2%, respectively. White-faced capuchins reconciled mainly during the first minutes after the end of the conflict. In kin and non-kin male/female dyads, selective attraction occurred, and aggressors were more likely to initiate affiliative contacts than aggressees. Hold-bottom and mount while emitting loud vocalizations were the most characteristic behaviors of reconciliation. Possible links may exist between aggressive and conciliatory patterns and other social variables.     

Weapon performance drives weapon evolution

Many sexually selected traits function as weapons, and these weapons can be incredibly diverse. However, the factors underlying weapon diversity among species remain poorly understood, and a fundamental hypothesis to explain this diversity remains untested. Although weapons can serve multiple functions, an undeniably important function is their role in fights. Thus, a crucial hypothesis is that weapon diversification is driven by the evolution of weapon modifications that provide an advantage in combat (e.g. causing more damage). Here, we test this fighting-advantage hypothesis using data from 17 species of coreid bugs. We utilize the fact that male–male combat in coreids often results in detectable damage, allowing us to link different weapon morphologies to different levels of damage among species. We find that certain weapon morphologies inflict much more damage than others, strongly supporting the fighting-advantage hypothesis. Moreover, very different weapon morphologies can inflict similarly severe amounts of damage, leading to a weapon performance landscape with multiple performance peaks. This multi-peak pattern could potentially drive different lineages towards divergent weapon forms, further increasing weapon diversity among species. Overall, our results may help explain how sexually selected weapons have evolved into the diversity of forms seen today.     

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990–2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark–recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised ≥1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (λ) estimated from average vital rates was λ_a = 1.072 with λ_i = 1.288 during colony increase and λ_d = 0.921 (Δλ = 0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Patterns of reconciliation among captive gelada baboons (Theropithecus gelada): A brief report

Animals that live in groups are frequently exposed to conflict situations and must in some way maintain group cohesion. One mechanism that appears to restore social relationships after they have been disrupted by conflict isreconciliation. This study investigated reconciliatory behavior in the gelada baboon,Theropithecus gelada. The subjects were 11 adult geladas, housed in a large outdoor enclosure at the Bronx Zoo/Wildlife Conservation Park, New York. Five-minute focal animal samples following spontaneous aggression were compared with 5-min matched-control samples. The results of this study were: (1) geladas reunited in a friendly way after aggression; (2) former opponents were attracted to one another rather than dispersed from one another after a conflict; (3) most post-conflict reunions occurred within the first 2 min of the post-conflict period; and (4) geladas do not have any specific types of behavior associated with post-conflict reunions as do chimpanzees and macaques. The results of this study support the hypothesis that gelada baboons reconcile after aggression.