Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique,a Proposed Methodology,and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming

Prospective environmental assessment of emerging technology is necessary in order to inform designers of beneficial changes early in a technology's development, and policy makers looking to fund projects and nudge manufacturers toward the most sustainable application of a technology. Existing analyses often have shortcomings such as failing to consider the environmental impacts in all stages of a product's life cycle; implicitly assuming that the emerging technology will be cost‐effective wherever it is technically viable; and assuming optimistic application scenarios that discontinue long‐established trends in human behavior. In this article, we propose a new approach, complementary to the prospective and anticipatory life cycle assessment literature, addressing the above concerns and attempting to make sense of the large uncertainties inherent in such analyses by using distributions to model all the inputs. The paper focuses on emerging manufacturing technologies, such as incremental sheet forming (ISF), but the issues examined are also applicable to new end‐use products, such as autonomous vehicles. This paper makes use of approaches (such as Bass modeling and product cannibalization considerations) familiar to those in the business community who anticipate market diffusion of a new technology and the effect on existing technology sales. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by estimating the potential environmental impacts in the U.S. car industry by 2030 of an emerging double‐sided ISF process. Energy and cost models of ISF and drawing are used to estimate potential mean savings of around 100 TJ_primary and 60 million U.S. dollars per year by 2030.     

The Role of Scale and Technology Maturity in Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies: A Case Study on Carbon Nanotubes

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been applied for assessing emerging technologies, where large‐scale production data are generally lacking. This study introduces a standardized scheme for technology and manufacturing readiness levels to contextualize a technology's development stage. We applied the scheme to a carbon nanotube (CNT) LCA and found that, regardless of synthesis technique, CNT manufacturing will become less energy intensive with increased levels of readiness. We examined the influence of production volume on LCA results using primary data from a commercial CNT manufacturer with approximately 100 grams per day production volume and engineering design of a scaled‐up process with 1 tonne per day production capacity. The results show that scaling up could reduce 84% to 94% of its cradle‐to‐gate impacts, mainly as a result of the recycling of feedstock that becomes economically viable only beyond certain minimum production volume. This study shows that LCAs on emerging technologies based on immature data should be interpreted in conjunction with their technology and manufacturing readiness levels and reinforces the need of standardizing and communicating information on these readiness levels and scale of production in life cycle inventory practices.     

Flexibility in manufacturing and services: achievements, insights and challenges

The concept of flexibility has attracted considerable interest in the last 25 years in the context of manufacturing. This paper develops a framework for thinking about flexibility in the context of making decisions about the design and operation of systems in either manufacturing or service environments. Three different aspects of flexibility are defined: prior flexibility, state flexibility and action flexibility, and the issues in the measurement of flexibility are discussed. The use of flexibility ideas by industry in manufacturing and services is reviewed and key contributions to the academic literature are summarized. Major issues and insights arising from a focus on flexibility are discussed. The paper concludes with some challenges for future research.     

Aligning demand and supply flexibility in custom product co-design

Flexibility of supply and demand is essential for successful implementation of a mass customization strategy that delivers sustained competitive advantage. Supply flexibility, i.e., a choice of alternative products designed to perform the same basic function, is made possible by the range of capabilities available in flexible and agile manufacturing systems and in supply chains. Demand flexibility is derived from the degree to which a customer is willing to compromise on product features or performance levels in order to meet budgetary (reflected in price) or schedule (reflected in delivery) constraints. Flexibility of both supply and demand can have significant strategic and financial value if they are properly aligned. However, customers are mostly unaware of mapping of demand flexibility on to supply flexibility and its impact on production cost and time. Recent advances in information technology have made it possible to co-design a product that involves customer on one end and the manufacturer on the other. This creates an aura and an opportunity where a middle ground between the supply and demand flexibility can be explored and a “deal” can be struck where both parties settle for a product that is beneficial to both through a negotiated settlement. In this paper, we develop a framework for such negotiations. The customer requirements are treated as a range of negotiable options instead of a set of fixed inputs. Demand and supply for customization is then matched by aligning the flexibility of manufacturing systems with customers’ requirement options. Based on this framework, a negotiation scheme is developed to assist customers and manufacturers in exploring and utilizing demand and supply flexibility information in co-design. The negotiation scheme is formulated using goal programming. Finally, an interactive problem-solving procedure is developed and implemented with an illustrative example.     

Models for capacity acquisition decisions considering operational costs

In this article, we study a capacity acquisition problem by considering technology choice and operational factors in a stochastic environment. The motivation for our work comes from developments in modern flexible technologies and a problem encountered in a real industrial setting. We study the impact of operational factors such as setup times, demand patterns, and inventory/back order costs on the decisions of capacity acquisition and technology choice. We consider three alternatives in capacity and technology decisions: (i) a flexible system, (ii) a dedicated system, and (iii) a combination of these two systems. For each system, we develop a model that integrates investment decisions and operational decisions to determine an optimal amount of capacity to purchase and the time and the types of parts to produce. The objective is to minimize the capacity acquisition cost at the beginning of the planning horizon and the total expected operational costs over an infinite planning horizon. To solve the problem in this article, a solution procedure is proposed. Managerial insights are also derived from extensive computational results.     

3D-Printed Drugs for Children—Are We Ready Yet?

The first medicine manufactured by three-dimensional (3D) printing was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The advantages of printing as a manufacturing route enabling more flexibility regarding the dose, and enlarging individual treatment options, have been demonstrated. There is a particular need for flexible drug delivery solutions when it comes to children. Printing as a new pharmaceutical manufacturing technology brings manufacturing closer to the patient and can easily be adjusted to the required dosing scheme, offering more flexibility for treatments. Printing of medicine may therefore become the manufacturing route of choice to provide tailored and potentially on-demand treatments for patients with individual needs. This paper intends to summarize and discuss the state of the art, the crucial aspects which should be taken into account, and the still-open questions, in order to make 3D printing a suitable manufacturing route for pediatric drugs.     

Fully integrated downstream process to enable next-generation manufacturing

Next-generation manufacturing (NGM) has evolved over the past decade to a point where large biopharmaceutical organizations are making large investments in the technology and considering implementation in clinical and commercial processes. There are many well-considered reasons to implement NGM. For the most part, organizations will not fund NGM unless the implementation benefits the funding organization by providing reduced costs, reduced time, or additional needed capabilities. Productivity improvements gained from continuous purification are shown in this work, which used a new system that fully integrates and automates several downstream unit operations of a biopharmaceutical process to provide flexibility and easy implementation of NGM. The equipment and automation needed to support NGM can be complicated and expensive. Biopharmaceutical Process Development considered two options as follows: (1) design its own NGM system or (2) buy a prebuilt system. PAK BioSolutions offers a turn-key automated and integrated system that can operate up to four continuous purification stages simultaneously, while maintaining a small footprint in the manufacturing plant. The system provides significant cost benefits (~10× lower) compared with the alternative—integration of many different pieces of equipment through a Distributed Control System that would require significant engineering time for design, automation, and integration. Integrated and Continuous Biomanufacturing can lead to significant reductions in facility size, reduced manufacturing costs, and enhanced product quality when compared with the traditional batch mode of operation. The system uses new automation strategies that robustly link unit operations. We present the optimized process fit, sterility and bioburden control strategy, and automation features (such as pH feedback control and in-line detergent addition), which enabled continuous operation of a 14-day end-to-end monoclonal antibody purification process at the clinical manufacturing scale.     

Incorporating costs in LCA

The goal of LCA is to identify the environmental impacts resulting from a product, process, or activity. While LCA is useful for evaluating environmental attributes, it stops short of providing information that business managers routinely utilize for decision-making — i.e., dollars. Thus, decisions regarding the processes used for manufacturing products and the materials comprising those products can be enhanced by weaving cost and environmental information into the decision-making process. Various approaches have been used during the past decade to supplement environmental information with cost information. One of these tools is environmental accounting, the identification, analysis, reporting, and use of environmental information, including environmental cost data. Environmental cost accounting provides information necessary for identifying the true costs of products and processes and for evaluating opportunities to minimize those costs. As demonstrated through two case studies, many companies are incorporating environmental cost information into their accounting systems to prioritize investments in new technologies and products.     

Flexible versus dedicated technology: A capacity expansion model

Over the past two decades, flexible manufacturing systems have been adopted in a variety of industries. Shorter product lives have necessitated acquiring flexible facilities. Further, the economies of scope that can be derived from producing products with different seasonality have made flexible facilities attractive. At the same time, dedicated facilities (such as transfer lines) have not disappeared because they offer economies of scale beneficial in high volume manufacturing environments. Hence, when producing a wide variety of products with different seasonality and demand growth rates, firms need to consider both economies of scale and economies of scope in deciding whether to acquire capacity of flexible or dedicated technology or both. In this paper, we consider the problem of making capacity acquisition decisions, when there is a choice of flexible and dedicated technologies available in a deterministic multi-product manufacturing environment with demand assumed to be nondeclining over time. We present a novel formulation of the problem and show the equivalence of the formulation to the uncapacitated plant location formulation. This enables us to use a very efficient solution procedure (Erlenkotter 1978) to solve even large problems optimally. We then present the results of an extensive computational study performed to evaluate the impact of key problem parameters on the proportion of flexible and dedicated capacity acquired. An interesting result of the study is that the proportion of flexible capacity acquired decreases with increasing scale economies. We also find that investment in flexible technology is significant even when it is relatively more expensive than dedicated technology.     

What value do computers provide to NHS hospitals?

As the NHS spends around pond 220 million a year on information technology for use by acute hospitals that are hard pressed for resources, it is reasonable to ask what value is provided. A review of rigorous scientific evidence for the value of information technology to NHS hospitals found that published evidence is scarce and far from conclusive. Information technology in NHS hospitals needs further assessment so that future decisions on such necessary and important investments are based on clear, well documented experience and research.     

The Information Technology Productivity Paradox Revisited: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation in the Manufacturing Sector

The lack of empirical support for the positive economic impact of information technology (IT) has been called the IT productivity paradox. Even though output measurement problems have often been held responsible for the paradox, we conjecture that modeling limitations in production-economics-based studies and input measurement also might have contributed to the paucity of systematic evidence regarding the impact of IT. We take the position that output measurement is slightly less problematic in manufacturing than in the service sector and that there is sound a priori rationale to expect substantial productivity gains from IT investments in manufacturing and production management. We revisit the IT productivity paradox to highlight some potential limitations of earlier research and obtain empirical support for these conjectures. We apply a theoretical framework involving explicit modeling of a strategic business unit's (SBU)1 input choices to a secondary data set in the manufacturing sector. A widely cited study by Loveman (1994) with the same dataset showed that the marginal contribution of IT to productivity was negative. However, our analysis reveals a significant positive impact of IT investment on SBU output. We show that Loveman's negative results can be attributed to the deflator used for the IT capital. Further, modeling issues such as a firm's choice of inputs like IT, non-IT, and labor lead to major differences in the IT productivity estimates. The question as to whether firms actually achieved economic benefits from IT investments in the past decade has been raised in the literature, and our results provide evidence of sizable productivity gains by large successful corporations in the manufacturing sector during the same time period.     

The impact of eHealth on the quality and safety of health care: a systematic overview

Background

There is considerable international interest in exploiting the potential of digital solutions to enhance the quality and safety of health care. Implementations of transformative eHealth technologies are underway globally, often at very considerable cost. In order to assess the impact of eHealth solutions on the quality and safety of health care, and to inform policy decisions on eHealth deployments, we undertook a systematic review of systematic reviews assessing the effectiveness and consequences of various eHealth technologies on the quality and safety of care.

Methods and Findings

We developed novel search strategies, conceptual maps of health care quality, safety, and eHealth interventions, and then systematically identified, scrutinised, and synthesised the systematic review literature. Major biomedical databases were searched to identify systematic reviews published between 1997 and 2010. Related theoretical, methodological, and technical material was also reviewed. We identified 53 systematic reviews that focused on assessing the impact of eHealth interventions on the quality and/or safety of health care and 55 supplementary systematic reviews providing relevant supportive information. This systematic review literature was found to be generally of substandard quality with regards to methodology, reporting, and utility. We thematically categorised eHealth technologies into three main areas: (1) storing, managing, and transmission of data; (2) clinical decision support; and (3) facilitating care from a distance. We found that despite support from policymakers, there was relatively little empirical evidence to substantiate many of the claims made in relation to these technologies. Whether the success of those relatively few solutions identified to improve quality and safety would continue if these were deployed beyond the contexts in which they were originally developed, has yet to be established. Importantly, best practice guidelines in effective development and deployment strategies are lacking.

Conclusions

There is a large gap between the postulated and empirically demonstrated benefits of eHealth technologies. In addition, there is a lack of robust research on the risks of implementing these technologies and their cost-effectiveness has yet to be demonstrated, despite being frequently promoted by policymakers and “techno-enthusiasts” as if this was a given. In the light of the paucity of evidence in relation to improvements in patient outcomes, as well as the lack of evidence on their cost-effectiveness, it is vital that future eHealth technologies are evaluated against a comprehensive set of measures, ideally throughout all stages of the technology''s life cycle. Such evaluation should be characterised by careful attention to socio-technical factors to maximise the likelihood of successful implementation and adoption. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Information-Based Manufacturing with the Web

Manufacturing has been evolving over the years as different needs and technologies arise. This paper describes an emerging manufacturing technology driven by information systems, the global network infrastructure, and new business models driven by the availability of real-time information. Information-based manufacturing concerns using the right information to know what products to make, when to make them, and then making them the best possible. This becomes more complicated when a number of products, facilities, markets, and companies are involved. More than just information is needed. Connectivity, ability to coordinate and integrate, and implementation strategy all are important. Information systems provide the infrastructure to carry out these objectives. Because of the need for an effective information infrastructure, the Internet has the potential to further enhance information-based manufacturing. Information-based manufacturing can be efficient only when the underlying supply-chain network is run efficiently, for the supply chain provides the infrastructure for directing all the activities from receiving raw materials to the delivery of final products. This paper illustrates how the Web technology can help coordinate the supply-chain activities in manufacturing. It also illustrates the relationships between product types, supply-chain structures, information-sharing, coordination, and the Web.     

Contrast influences female attraction to performance-based sexual signals in a songbird

Animals do not make decisions in a bubble but often refer to previous experience when discriminating between options. Contrast effects occur when the value of a stimulus affects the response to another value of the stimulus, and the changes in value and response are in the same direction. Although contrast effects appear irrational, they could benefit decision makers when there is spatial or temporal variation and autocorrelation in the value of stimuli that elicit decisions. Here, we examined whether contrasts influence female evaluation of male performance-based sexual signals. We exposed female Lincoln''s sparrows (Melospiza lincolnii) to one week of songs that we had experimentally reduced or elevated in performance, followed by a novel song of intermediate performance. We found that high-performance songs were more attractive to females than low-performance songs. Moreover, the intermediate songs were more attractive following exposure to low- than to high-performance songs. These results indicate that contrast can influence evaluation of performance-based sexual stimuli. By examining contrast effects in the ecologically relevant context of mate choice for performance, we can better understand both the adaptive value of comparative evaluation as well as the mechanisms that underlie variation in mate choice and sexual selection.     

An approach to real-time flexible scheduling

Two types of flexibility are important in manufacturing scheduling in general and in real-time scheduling in particular. The first is flexibility with respect to the criteria that can be considered in the scheduling decisions. The second is flexibility with respect to the trade-off between decision quality and computational burden: that is, the ability to arrive at a solution that makes maximum use of theavailable computational capacity and computation time. This paper describes a procedure which meets the above requirements. The procedure is justified using a theoretical analysis based on probability. Experimental results of the procedure's performance are also presented. The results show that random selection (which is used in the procedure) can play a useful role in the real-time scheduling problem.     

Keeping up with the Joneses: Interpersonal Prediction Errors and the Correlation of Behavior in a Tandem Sequential Choice Task

In many settings, copying, learning from or assigning value to group behavior is rational because such behavior can often act as a proxy for valuable returns. However, such herd behavior can also be pathologically misleading by coaxing individuals into behaviors that are otherwise irrational and it may be one source of the irrational behaviors underlying market bubbles and crashes. Using a two-person tandem investment game, we sought to examine the neural and behavioral responses of herd instincts in situations stripped of the incentive to be influenced by the choices of one''s partner. We show that the investments of the two subjects correlate over time if they are made aware of their partner''s choices even though these choices have no impact on either player''s earnings. We computed an “interpersonal prediction error”, the difference between the investment decisions of the two subjects after each choice. BOLD responses in the striatum, implicated in valuation and action selection, were highly correlated with this interpersonal prediction error. The revelation of the partner''s investment occurred after all useful information about the market had already been revealed. This effect was confirmed in two separate experiments where the impact of the time of revelation of the partner''s choice was tested at 2 seconds and 6 seconds after a subject''s choice; however, the effect was absent in a control condition with a computer partner. These findings strongly support the existence of mechanisms that drive correlated behavior even in contexts where there is no explicit advantage to do so.     

Can Sophie's Choice Be Adequately Captured by Cold Computation of Minimizing Losses? An fMRI Study of Vital Loss Decisions

The vast majority of decision-making research is performed under the assumption of the value maximizing principle. This principle implies that when making decisions, individuals try to optimize outcomes on the basis of cold mathematical equations. However, decisions are emotion-laden rather than cool and analytic when they tap into life-threatening considerations. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), this study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying vital loss decisions. Participants were asked to make a forced choice between two losses across three conditions: both losses are trivial (trivial-trivial), both losses are vital (vital-vital), or one loss is trivial and the other is vital (vital-trivial). Our results revealed that the amygdala was more active and correlated positively with self-reported negative emotion associated with choice during vital-vital loss decisions, when compared to trivial-trivial loss decisions. The rostral anterior cingulate cortex was also more active and correlated positively with self-reported difficulty of choice during vital-vital loss decisions. Compared to the activity observed during trivial-trivial loss decisions, the orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum were more active and correlated positively with self-reported positive emotion of choice during vital-trivial loss decisions. Our findings suggest that vital loss decisions involve emotions and cannot be adequately captured by cold computation of minimizing losses. This research will shed light on how people make vital loss decisions.     

Developing a Hybrid Programmable Logic Controller Platform for a Flexible Manufacturing System

In this article, we present the design and implementation of a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) control platform based on a programmable logic controller (PLC) and a personal computer (PC)-based visual man-machine interface (MMI) and data acquisition (DAS) unit. The key aspect of an FMS is its flexibility to adapt to changes in a demanding process operation. The PLC provides feasible solutions to FMS applications, using PC-based MMI/DAS, whereby PLCs are optimized for executing rapid sequential control strategies. PCs running MMI/DAS front-ends make intuitive operation interfaces, full of powerful graphics and reporting tools. Information from the PC can be distributed through a company's local area network or web using client-server technologies. Currently, with the convergence of underlying microprocessor technology and software programming techniques, many users find that PLCs provide a cost-effective solution to real-time control in small- to medium-sized process plants, especially when combined with supervisory PCs using hybrid systems. The major work of this article demonstrates that PLCs are responsive to rapid and repetitious control tasks, using PCs that present the flow of information automation and accept operator instructions, thereby providing the user a tool to modify and monitor the process as the requirements change.     

Direct and Indirect Effects of Product Mix Characteristics on Capacity Management Decisions and Operating Performance

Studies of the performance effects of product mix complexity typically treat plant capacity utilization and machine scheduling (for example, setup frequency) as exogenous factors associated with technology choices, economies of scale, and the level of market demand. However, capacity utilization and machine scheduling also reflect tactical operating decisions taken by local managers to maximize short-run performance. If managers rationally anticipate a negative relation between performance and product mix complexity, we expect tactical operating decisions to be used to mitigate performance degradation. Previous empirical studies that ignore this simultaneity provide an incomplete assessment of the performance effects of product mix complexity. This paper uses path analysis to examine the combined impact of product mix on capacity management decisions and operating performance in three textile manufacturing plants. The results support the hypothesis that product mix acts through capacity management decisions to reduce performance from the level implied by direct effects alone. The evidence also supports the behavioral proposition that managers use capacity management decisions strategically—creating production slack when product mix is anticipated to most affect performance. However, although managers use discretionary capacity management intensively when the product mix is composed of complex, heterogeneous products, they are unable or unwilling to use these decisions to fully offset the performance impact of product mix.     

Mesenchymal stromal cell therapy: progress in manufacturing and assessments of potency

Mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) therapies have been pursued for a broad spectrum of indications but mixed reports on clinical efficacy have given rise to some degree of skepticism regarding the effectiveness of this approach. However, recent reports of successful clinical outcomes and regulatory approvals for graft-versus-host disease, Crohn's disease and critical limb ischemia have prompted a shift in this perspective. With hundreds of clinical trials involving MSCs currently underway and an increasing demand for large-scale manufacturing protocols, there is a critical need to develop standards that can be applied to processing methods and to establish consensus assays for both MSC processing control and MSC product release. Reference materials and validated, uniformly applied tests for quality control of MSC products are needed. Here, we review recent developments in MSC manufacturing technologies, release testing and potency assays. We conclude that, although MSCs hold considerable promise clinically, economies of scale have yet to be achieved although numerous bioreactor technologies for scalable production of MSCs exist. Additionally, rigorous disease-specific product testing and comprehensive understanding of mechanisms of action, which are linked to relevant process and product release potency assays, will be required to ensure that these therapies continue to be successful.