Correlated patterns of variation in phenology and seed production in populations of two annual grasses along an aridity gradient

I applied a comparative approach to reveal correlated patterns of variation in phenology and seed production in four populations of two annual grasses Hordeum spontaneum and Avena sterilis, sampled in the same environments distributed along an aridity gradient in Israel. The steep aridity gradient in Israel represents two parallel clines of environmental productivity (annual rainfall) and predictability (variation in amount and timing of annual rainfall) that is likely to induce similar responses in natural plant populations distributed along the gradient, if (1) selection is strong, (2) species share the same ecological niche, and (3) there is genetic variation for ecologically important traits. I found in plants of both species (1) ultimate advance in onset of flowering, and (2) more but smaller seeds, with increasing aridity. The broad sense heritabilities of onset of flowering, seed size and seed yield in both species were very high, moderate and low, respectively. It appears that the observed adaptive complex of traits have evolved in both species in response to this specific array of environments.     

Flowering time plasticity in Arabidopsis thaliana: a reanalysis of Westerman & Lawrence (1970)

Environmental variation in temperature can have dramatic effects on plant morphology, phenology, and fitness, and for this reason it is important to understand the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature. We investigated constraints on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in response to a temperature gradient in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana by applying modern analytical tools to the classic data of Westerman & Lawrence (1970). We found significant evidence for two types of constraints. First, we detected numerous significant genetic correlations between plastic responses to temperature and the mean value of a trait across all environments, which differed qualitatively in pattern between the set of ecotypes and the set of mutant lines in the original sample. Secondly, we detected significant costs of flowering time plasticity in two of the three experimental environments, and a net pattern of selection against flowering time plasticity in the experiment overall. Thus, when explored with contemporary methods, the prescient work of Westerman & Lawrence (1970) provides new insights about evolutionary constraints on the evolution of plasticity.     

Variation in the degree and costs of adaptive phenotypic plasticity among Rana temporaria populations

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in the form of capacity to accelerate development as a response to pond drying risk is known from many amphibian species. However, very little is known about factors that might constrain the evolution of this type of plasticity, and few studies have explored to what degree plasticity might be constrained by trade-offs dictated by adaptation to different environmental conditions. We compared the ability of southern and northern Scandinavian common frog (Rana temporaria) larvae originating from 10 different populations to accelerate their development in response to simulated pond drying risk and the resulting costs in metamorphic size in a factorial laboratory experiment. We found that (i) northern larvae developed faster than the southern larvae in all treatments, (ii) a capacity to accelerate the response was present in all five southern and all five northern populations tested, but that the magnitude of the response was much larger (and less variable) in the southern than in the northern populations, and that (iii) significant plasticity costs in metamorphic size were present in the southern populations, the plastic genotypes having smaller metamorphic size in the absence of desiccation risk, but no evidence for plasticity costs was found in the northern populations. We suggest that the weaker response to pond drying risk in the northern populations is due to stronger selection on large metamorphic size as compared with southern populations. In other words, seasonal time constraints that have selected the northern larvae to be fast growing and developing, may also constrain their innate ability for adaptive phenotypic plasticity.     

Environmental effects on the detection of adaptation

Detecting adaptation involves comparing the performance of populations evolving in different environments. This detection may be confounded by effects due to the environment experienced by organisms prior to the test. We tested whether such confounding effects occur, using spider-mite selection lines on two novel hosts and one ancestral host, after 15 generations of selection. Mites were either sampled directly from the selection lines or subjected to a common juvenile or to a common maternal environment, mimicking the most frequent environmental manipulations. These environments strongly affected all life-history traits. Moreover, the detection of adaptation and correlated responses on the ancestral host was inconsistent among environments in almost 20% of the cases. Indeed, we did not detect responses unambiguously for any life-history trait. This inconsistency was due to differential environmental effects on lines from different selection regimes. Therefore, the detection of adaptation requires a careful control of these environmental effects.     

Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties?

Extreme climate, especially temperature, can severely reduce wheat yield. As global warming has already begun to increase mean temperature and the occurrence of extreme temperatures, it has become urgent to accelerate the 5–20 year process of breeding for new wheat varieties, to adapt to future climate. We analyzed the patterns of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt based on 50 years of historical records (1960–2009) for 2864 weather stations. Flowering dates of three contrasting‐maturity wheat varieties were simulated for a wide range of sowing dates in 22 locations for ‘current’ climate (1960–2009) and eight future scenarios (high and low CO₂ emission, dry and wet precipitation scenarios, in 2030 and 2050). The results highlighted the substantial spatial variability of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt in current and future climates. As both ‘last frost’ and ‘first heat’ events would occur earlier in the season, the ‘target’ sowing and flowering windows (defined as risk less than 10% for frost (<0 °C) and less than 30% for heat (>35 °C) around flowering) would be shifted earlier by up to 2 and 1 month(s), respectively, in 2050. A short‐season variety would require a shift in target sowing window 2‐fold greater than long‐ and medium‐season varieties by 2050 (8 vs. 4 days on average across locations and scenarios, respectively), but would suffer a lesser decrease in the length of the vegetative period (4 vs. 7 days). Overall, warmer winters would shorten the wheat season by up to 6 weeks, especially during preflowering. This faster crop cycle is associated with a reduced time for resource acquisition, and potential yield loss. As far as favourable rain and modern equipment would allow, early sowing and longer season varieties (i.e. in current climate) would be the best strategies to adapt to future climates.     

A three‐component system incorporating Ppd‐D1, copy number variation at Ppd‐B1, and numerous small‐effect quantitative trait loci facilitates adaptation of heading time in winter wheat cultivars of worldwide origin

The broad adaptability of heading time has contributed to the global success of wheat in a diverse array of climatic conditions. Here, we investigated the genetic architecture underlying heading time in a large panel of 1,110 winter wheat cultivars of worldwide origin. Genome‐wide association mapping, in combination with the analysis of major phenology loci, revealed a three‐component system that facilitates the adaptation of heading time in winter wheat. The photoperiod sensitivity locus Ppd‐D1 was found to account for almost half of the genotypic variance in this panel and can advance or delay heading by many days. In addition, copy number variation at Ppd‐B1 was the second most important source of variation in heading, explaining 8.3% of the genotypic variance. Results from association mapping and genomic prediction indicated that the remaining variation is attributed to numerous small‐effect quantitative trait loci that facilitate fine‐tuning of heading to the local climatic conditions. Collectively, our results underpin the importance of the two Ppd‐1 loci for the adaptation of heading time in winter wheat and illustrate how the three components have been exploited for wheat breeding globally.     

Natural variation in Arabidopsis lyrata vernalization requirement conferred by a FRIGIDA indel polymorphism

Species share homologous genes to a large extent, but it isnot yet known to what degree the same loci have been targetsfor natural selection in different species. Natural variationin flowering time is determined to a large degree by 2 genes,FLOWERING LOCUS C and FRIGIDA, in Arabidopsis thaliana. Here,we examine whether FRIGIDA has a role in differences in floweringtime between and within natural populations of Arabidopsis lyrata,a close outcrossing perennial relative of A. thaliana. We found2 FRIGIDA sequence variants producing potentially functionalproteins but with a length difference of 14 amino acids. Thesevariants conferred a 15-day difference in flowering time inan association experiment in 2 Scandinavian populations. Thedifference in flowering time between alleles was confirmed withtransformation to A. thaliana. Because the north European late-floweringpopulations harbor both late- and early sequence variants atintermediate frequencies and the late-flowering variant is mostfrequent in the southern early flowering European population,other genetic factors must be responsible for the floweringtime differences between the populations. The length polymorphismoccurs at high frequencies also in several North American populations.The occurrence of functional variants at intermediate frequenciesin several populations suggests that the variation may be maintainedby balancing selection. This is in contrast to A. thaliana,where independent loss-of-function mutations at the FRIGIDAgene are responsible for differences between populations andlocal adaptation.     

Plasticity genes and plasticity costs: a new approach using an Arabidopsis recombinant inbred population

Earlier flowering is triggered by vernalization in some but not all Arabidopsis ecotypes, often reflecting allelic variation at the FRIGIDA (FRI) locus. Using a recombinant inbred (RI) population polymorphic at FRI, we examined fitness consequences of variation for plasticity. Flowering and fitness were scored for 68 RI genotypes following full and partial vernalization treatments. Within-environment and mixed-model anovas estimated variance components for a genotype effect and a G x E term, respectively. Selection analyses examined whether delayed bolting increases fitness; a plasticity costs analysis asked whether increased plasticity lowers fitness. We also explored whether trait QTL had environment-specific effects, colocated in the immediate vicinity of FRI, or overlapped with fitness QTL. Selection may favor fri alleles and constitutive early flowering, especially in conditions that only partially vernalize plants. Plasticity costs, detected only after partial vernalization and only marginally significant, were nonetheless consistent with FRI-FLC function. We discuss how information about QTL with environment-specific effects, fitness QTL, and knowledge about plasticity genes can improve interpretation of selection or plasticity cost analyses.