Failed refutations: further comments on parsimony and likelihood methods and their relationship to Popper's degree of corroboration

Kluge's (2001, Syst. Biol. 50:322-330) continued arguments that phylogenetic methods based on the statistical principle of likelihood are incompatible with the philosophy of science described by Karl Popper are based on false premises related to Kluge's misrepresentations of Popper's philosophy. Contrary to Kluge's conjectures, likelihood methods are not inherently verificationist; they do not treat every instance of a hypothesis as confirmation of that hypothesis. The historical nature of phylogeny does not preclude phylogenetic hypotheses from being evaluated using the probability of evidence. The low absolute probabilities of hypotheses are irrelevant to the correct interpretation of Popper's concept termed degree of corroboration, which is defined entirely in terms of relative probabilities. Popper did not advocate minimizing background knowledge; in any case, the background knowledge of both parsimony and likelihood methods consists of the general assumption of descent with modification and additional assumptions that are deterministic, concerning which tree is considered most highly corroborated. Although parsimony methods do not assume (in the sense of entailing) that homoplasy is rare, they do assume (in the sense of requiring to obtain a correct phylogenetic inference) certain things about patterns of homoplasy. Both parsimony and likelihood methods assume (in the sense of implying by the manner in which they operate) various things about evolutionary processes, although violation of those assumptions does not always cause the methods to yield incorrect phylogenetic inferences. Test severity is increased by sampling additional relevant characters rather than by character reanalysis, although either interpretation is compatible with the use of phylogenetic likelihood methods. Neither parsimony nor likelihood methods assess test severity (critical evidence) when used to identify a most highly corroborated tree(s) based on a single method or model and a single body of data; however, both classes of methods can be used to perform severe tests. The assumption of descent with modification is insufficient background knowledge to justify cladistic parsimony as a method for assessing degree of corroboration. Invoking equivalency between parsimony methods and likelihood models that assume no common mechanism emphasizes the necessity of additional assumptions, at least some of which are probabilistic in nature. Incongruent characters do not qualify as falsifiers of phylogenetic hypotheses except under extremely unrealistic evolutionary models; therefore, justifications of parsimony methods as falsificationist based on the idea that they minimize the ad hoc dismissal of falsifiers are questionable. Probabilistic concepts such as degree of corroboration and likelihood provide a more appropriate framework for understanding how phylogenetics conforms with Popper's philosophy of science. Likelihood ratio tests do not assume what is at issue but instead are methods for testing hypotheses according to an accepted standard of statistical significance and for incorporating considerations about test severity. These tests are fundamentally similar to Popper's degree of corroboration in being based on the relationship between the probability of the evidence e in the presence versus absence of the hypothesis h, i.e., between p(e|hb) and p(e|b), where b is the background knowledge. Both parsimony and likelihood methods are inductive in that their inferences (particular trees) contain more information than (and therefore do not follow necessarily from) the observations upon which they are based; however, both are deductive in that their conclusions (tree lengths and likelihoods) follow necessarily from their premises (particular trees, observed character state distributions, and evolutionary models). For these and other reasons, phylogenetic likelihood methods are highly compatible with Karl Popper's philosophy of science and offer several advantages over parsimony methods in this context.     

Comparison of phylogenetic signal between male genitalia and non-genital characters in insect systematics

It is generally accepted that male genitalia evolve more rapidly and divergently relative to non-genital traits due to sexual selection, but there is little quantitative comparison of the pattern of evolution between these character sets. Moreover, despite the fact that genitalia are still among the most widely used characters in insect systematics, there is an idea that the rate of evolution is too rapid for genital characters to be useful in forming clades. Based on standard measures of fit used in cladistic analyses, we compare levels of homoplasy and synapomorphy between genital and non-genital characters of published data sets and demonstrate that phylogenetic signal between these two character sets is statistically similar. This pattern is found consistently across different insect orders at different taxonomic hierarchical levels. We argue that the fact that male genitalia are under sexual selection and thus diverge rapidly does not necessarily equate with the lack of phylogenetic signal, because characters that evolve by descent with modification make appropriate characters for a phylogenetic analysis, regardless of the rate of evolution. We conclude that male genitalia are a composite character consisting of different components diverging separately, which make them ideal characters for phylogenetic analyses, providing information for resolving varying levels of hierarchy.
© The Willi Hennig Society 2009.     

A Review on Cladistics

The theoretical bases and approaches of cladistics and some specific problems that, directly or indirectly, rely on cladistic analysis for their revolution, are outlined and discussed. Seven sections comprise this paper: a ) the philosophical foundation of cladistics; b) the theoretical tenets of cladistics; c) the operational procedure of cladisties; d) three schools of classification; e) cladistics and biogeography; f) cladistics and hybrid recognition; and g) is cladistic systematics a scientific theory ? Considerations of scientific methodology involve philosophical questions. From this point, Popper'falsificationism serves a good foundation. Popper emphasizes that all scientific knowledge is hypothetical-deductive, consisting of general statements (theories) that can never be confirmed or verified but only falsified. The theories, that can be tested most effectively, are preferable. Cladistics, aiming at generating accurately expressed and strictly testable systematic hypotheses, is well compatible with this requirement. The principles central to the cladistic theory and methodology are: the Principle of Synapomorphy; the Principle of Strict Monophyly; and the Principle of Strict Parsimony. The first requires forming nested groups by nesting statements about shared evolutionary novelties (synapomorphy) postulated from observed similarities and is the primary one. The second is mainly methodological, subject to modification and compromise. The principle of strict parsimony specifies the most preferable hypothesis (namely the one exhibiting the most congruence in the synapomorphy pattern). The operational procedure that might be followed in formulating and testing hypotheses of the synapomorphy pattern (the cladogram itself) consists of five steps. The erections of monophyletic groups, to a greater or lesser extent, rely on the hypothesis of the previous systematic studies and is the starting point for cladistic analysis. Character analysis, which focuses on character distribution and determination of the polarities, decides the reconstructed phylogeny. A detailed discussion on the methodological principles for identifying transformation sequence is presented. Many algorithms have been designated to infer the cladogram, and are basically of parsimony techniques and Compatibility techiques. The thus yielded cladograms, with their expected pattern of congruent synapomorphies, are tests of a particular hypothesis of synapomorphy and reciprocally synapomorphies are tests of cladistic hypothesis (cladogram). Such reciprocity is a strong stimulus to profound understanding on phylogenetic process and phyletic relationships. The cladogram and the Linnaean classification have the identical logic structure and the set-membership of the two can be made isomorphic. There are three principal approaches to biological classification : cladistics, phenetics and evolutionary classification. Cladistics is the determination of the branching pattern of evolution, and in the context of classification, the development of nested sets based on cladograms. Phenetics is the classification by overall similarities, without regard to evolutionary considerations. Evolutionary classification attempts to consider all meaningful aspects of phylogeny and to use these for making a classification. The last approach has been done intuitively, without explicit methods. An enumeration of their differences and a discussion on their relative merits are presented. Three theoretical approaches have been proposed for interpreting biogeographical history: the phylogenetic theory of biogeography, classical evolutionary biogeography and vicariance biogeography. The former two show some similarities in that they usually look upon biogeography in terms of centers of origin and dispersal from the centers. But the first puts a strong emphasis on the construction of hypotheses about the phylogenetic relationships of the organisms in question and the subsequent inference of their geographic relationships; the second advocates a theory which does not have a precise deductive link with phylogenetic construction and often results in wildly narratative-type hypotheses. The vicariance approach de-emphasizes the concepts of centers of origin and dispersal and attempts to analyse distribution patterns in terms of subdivision (vicariance) of ancestral biotas. The development of the theory of plate tectonics and its universal acceptance enormously stimulate biogeographers to look at the world's continents and oceans from a mobilist point, which, along with the establishment of the rigorous tool of the phylogenetic analysis (cladistics), profoundly reshapes the above three theories. Hybridization and polyploidy are outstanding features of many plant groups. But hybridization, or reticulate evolution, is inconsistent with the basic concepts of cladistics which is an ever-branching pattern. Cladists have suggested several approaches. One of them analyses all the taxa by a standard cladistic procedure and closely examines the cladograms for polytomies and character conflicts that may indicate possible hybrids. Such generated hypothesis of hybridization can be corroborated or falsified by other forms of data, such as distribution, polyploidy, karyotype and pollen fertility. There are three criteria to justify a theory to be scientific: a) whether it is a theory composed of hypotheses strictly falsifiable; b) whether it has predictive effect; and c) whether it has a explanatory value. Cladistic systematics aims at generating cladograms, which are hypotheses of the nested pattern of synapomorphy, phylogenetic process and phyletic relationships, susceptible to testing by postulated synapomorphies. The predictive effect of systematics relies on the acceptance of hypotheses of congruence about the correlation of characters, which has been well founded. For non-systematic biologists, phylogenetic classification can be used as axiom to form a preliminary and fundamental explanation.     

Strongest Evidence: Maximum Apparent Phylogenetic Signal as a New Cladistic Optimality Criterion

A new method for phylogenetic inference, Strongest Evidence (SE), is described. In this method, a character's support for a phylogenetic hypothesis, its apparent phylogenetic signal, is greatest when the amount of implied homoplasy is most remarkably small given background knowledge alone. Because evolutionary rates are not assumed to be slow, background expectations for character length can be derived through modeling complete dissociation between branching pattern and character state assignments. As in unweighted parsimony, SE holds that fewer required evolutionary steps in a character indicates stronger support for a tree. However, in SE, the relationship between steps and support differs by unlabeled tree topology and character state distribution. Strongest evidence is contrasted in detail with both unweighted parsimony and Goloboff's method of implied weights. An iterative process is suggested for incrementally resolving a phylogenetic hypothesis while conducting cladistic analyses at increasingly local levels.     

The use of hierarchies as organizational models in systematics

A hierarchy is an abstract organizational model of inter-level relationships among entities. When isomorphic with nature, hierarchies are useful for organizing and manipulating our knowledge. Hierarchies have been used in biological systematics to represent several distinct, but interrelated, facets of the evolution of life with different organizational properties, and these distinctions have been confused by the rubric 'the hierarchy of life'. Evolution, as descent with modification, is inherently dualistic. The organizational structure of a hierarchy can be used to represent dualistic properties as inter-level relationships. Cladistics is monistic, with a singular focus on patterns of descent. Descent has conceptual priority over modification, but the organizational relationship is not exclusive. 'Cladistic classification' is an oxymoron because cladistics lacks the class concepts needed to construct a classification, a point recognized by those who suggest abandoning Linnaean classification in favour of a newly devised monophyletic systematization. Cladistic analysis of descent can be supplemented with an analysis of modification that provides the class concepts needed to construct an evolutionary/phylogenetic classification. When a strong monophyletic pattern of modification is detected (in addition to its monophyletic pattern of descent), the criterion of subsequent modification provides the basis for formally recognizing a certain monophyletic group at a given rank, as opposed to a group that is one node more inclusive or one node less. The criterion of subsequent modification also permits detection of strong paraphyletic patterns of modification, when they exist. By setting standards of evidence needed to recognize paraphyletic groups, one concomitandy strengthens the basis for formally recognizing selective monophyletic groups.     

Avian higher-level phylogeny: well-supported clades and what we can learn from a phylogenetic analysis of 2954 morphological characters

It has been shown that increased character sampling betters the accuracy of phylogenetic reconstructions in the case of molecular data. A recently published analysis of avian higher-level phylogenetics based on 2954 morphological characters now provides an empirical example to test whether this is also true in the case of morphological characters. Several clades are discussed which are supported by multiple analyses of mutually independent molecular data (sequences of nuclear genes on different chromosomes and mitochondrial genes) as well as morphological apomorphies, but did not result from parsimony analysis of the large morphological data set. Incorrect character scorings in that analysis notwithstanding, it is concluded that in the case of morphological data, increased character sampling does not necessarily better the accuracy of a phylogenetic reconstruction. Because morphological characters usually have a strongly varying complexity, many simple and homoplastic characters may overrule fewer ones of greater phylogenetic significance in large data sets, thus producing a low ratio of phylogenetic signal to 'noise' in the data.     

Parsimony, likelihood, and simplicity

The latest charge against parsimony in phylogenetic inference is that it involves estimating too many parameters. The charge is derived from the fact that, when each character is allowed a branch length vector of its own (instead of the homogeneous branch lengths assumed in current likelihood models), the results for likelihood and parsimony are identical. Parsimony, however, can also be derived from simpler models, involving fewer parameters. Therefore, parsimony provides (as many authors had argued before) the simplest explanation of the data, or the most realistic, depending on one's views. If (as argued by likelihoodists) phylogenetic inference is to use the simplest model that provides sufficient explanation of the data, the starting point of phylogenetic analyses should be parsimony, not maximum likelihood. If the addition of new parameters (which increase the likelihood) to a parsimony estimation is seen as desirable, this may lead to a preference for results based on current likelihood models. If the addition of parameters is continued, however, the results will eventually come back to the same place where they had started, since allowing each character a branch length of its own also produces parsimony. Parsimony can be justified by very different types of models—either very complex or very simple. This suggests that parsimony does have a unique place among methods of phylogenetic estimation.     

Strongest Evidence Revisited

In response to comments by J. S. Farris (2000, Cladistics 16, 403–410) on the strongest evidence (SE) approach to phylogenetic analysis, I examine the concepts on which it is founded and reevaluate its merits. SE's null model of signal absence in characters is not treated as background knowledge, but as a reference point for evaluating a data set's phylogenetic signal in a tree-specific manner. In simulation tests, the SE methods perform reasonably well; although parsimony is generally more accurate and less biased than SE, SE is distinctly more accurate in some circumstances. Simulations further indicate that jackknifing is often beneficial in both SE and parsimony analyses. Iterative fixation of splits shows promise as an auxiliary procedure for SE and other methods that weight according to apparent homoplasy.     

Parsimony-based test for identifying changes in evolutionary trends for quantitative characters: implications for the origin of the amniotic egg

The origin of the amniotic egg was a major event in vertebrate evolution and is thought to have contributed to the spectacular evolutionary radiation of amniotes. We test one of the most popular scenarios proposed by Carroll in 1970 to explain the origin of the amniotic egg using a novel method based on an asymmetric version of linear parsimony (aka Wagner parsimony) for identifying the most parsimonious split of a tree into two parts between which the evolution of the character is allowed to differ. The new method evaluates the cost of splitting a phylogenetic tree at a given node as the integral, over all pairs of asymmetry parameters, of the most parsimonious costs that can be achieved by using the first parameter on the subtree pending from this node and the second parameter elsewhere. By testing all the nodes, we then obtain the most parsimonious split of a tree with regard to the character values at its tips. Among the nine trees and two characters tested, our method yields a total of 517 parsimonious trend changes in Permo-Carboniferous stegocephalians, a single one of which occurs in a part of the tree (among stem-amniotes) where Carroll's scenario predicts that there should have been distinct changes in body size evolutionary trends. This refutes the scenario because the amniote stem does not appear to have elevated rates of evolutionary trend shifts. Our nodal body size estimates offer less discriminating power, but they likewise fail to find strong support for Carroll's scenario.     

Parsimony, simplicity and what actually happened

The role of a parsimony principle is unclear in most methods which have been claimed to be valid for the reconstruction of tionary kinship. There appear to be two reasons for this: first, the role of parsimony is generally uncertain in scientific method; second, the majority of methods proposed transform data and order them, but are not appropriate to the reconstruction of phyto Commitment to a probabilistic model of tionary processes seems to be the essential component which may enable us justifiably to estimate phylo An example is provided which emphasizes the importance of knowledge about the nature of the process before undertaking estimation of the pattern of kinship.     

Phylogenetic inference using discrete characters: performance of ordered and unordered parsimony and of three‐item statements

The cladistic literature does not always specify the kind of multistate character treatment that is applied for an analysis. Characters can be treated either as unordered transformation series or as rooted [three‐item analysis (3ia)] or unrooted state trees (ordered characters). We aimed to measure the impact of these character treatments on phylogenetic inference. Discrete characters can be represented either as rows or columns in matrices (e.g. for parsimony) or as hierarchies for 3ia. In the present study, we use simulated and empirical examples to assess the relative merits of each method considering both the character treatment and representation. We measure two parameters (resolving power and artefactual resolution) using a new tree comparison metric, ITRI (inter‐tree retention index). Our results suggest that the hierarchical character representation not only results (with our simulation settings) in the greatest resolving power, but also in the highest artefactual resolution. Our empirical examples provide equivocal results. Parsimony unordered states yield less resolving power and more artefactual resolutions than parsimony ordered states, both with our simulated and empirical data. Relationships between three operational taxonomic units (OTUs), irrespective of their relationships with other OTUs, are called three‐item statements (3is). We compare the intersection tree (which reconstructs a single tree from all of the common 3is of source trees) with the traditional strict consensus and show that the intersection tree retains more of the information contained in the source trees. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 110 , 914–930.     

Towards an inclusive philosophy for phylogenetic inference

We defend and expand on our earlier proposal for an inclusive philosophical framework for phylogenetics, based on an interpretation of Popperian corroboration that is decoupled from the popular falsificationist interpretation of Popperian philosophy. Any phylogenetic inference method can provide Popperian "evidence" or "test statements" based on the method's goodness-of-fit values for different tree hypotheses. Corroboration, or the severity of that test, requires that the evidence is improbable without the hypothesis, given only background knowledge that includes elements of chance. This framework contrasts with attempted Popperian justifications for cladistic parsimony--in which evidence is the data, background knowledge is restricted to descent with modification, and "corroboration," as a by-product of nonfalsification, is to be measured by cladistic parsimony. Recognition that cladistic "corroboration" reflects only goodness-of-fit, not corroboration/severity, makes it clear that standard cladistic prohibitions, such as restrictions on the evolutionary models to be included in "background knowledge," have no philosophical status. The capacity to assess Popperian corroboration neither justifies nor excludes any phylogenetic method, but it does provide a framework in phylogenetics for learning from errors--cases where apparent good evidence is probable even without the hypothesis. We explore these issues in the context of corroboration assessments applied to likelihood methods and to a new form of parsimony. These different forms of evidence and corroboration assessment point also to a new way to combine evidence--not at the level of overall fit, but at the level of overall corroboration/severity. We conclude that progress in an inclusive phylogenetics will be well served by the rejection of cladistic philosophy.     

Analysis on the reconstruction accuracy of the Fitch method for inferring ancestral states

Background  

As one of the most widely used parsimony methods for ancestral reconstruction, the Fitch method minimizes the total number of hypothetical substitutions along all branches of a tree to explain the evolution of a character. Due to the extensive usage of this method, it has become a scientific endeavor in recent years to study the reconstruction accuracies of the Fitch method. However, most studies are restricted to 2-state evolutionary models and a study for higher-state models is needed since DNA sequences take the format of 4-state series and protein sequences even have 20 states.     

The effect of cytokines on bactericidal activity of murine neutrophils

Abstract A range of recombinant cytokines have now been shown to modify aspects of the phenotype and function of human and murine neutrophils. However, few reports describe modification of the bactericidal activity of neutrophils. We therefore examined the recombinant murine cytokines tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α, 10–1000 ng ml⁻¹) and granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF, 10–1000 U ml⁻¹) for their ability to increase the bacterial killing capacity of murine neutrophils. Neutrophils from either bone marrow (fresh or cultured), or peritoneal exudates, or abscesses, were pre-incubated with either cytokine for 30–60 min and the killing of Proteus mirabilis, Escherichia coli , or Bacteriodes fragilis was examined in the presence or absence of serum over a 90 min period. Only for one combination was a small but significantly enhanced level of bacterial killing observed, the phagocytic killing of P. mirabilis by peritoneal exudate neutrophils in the presence of GM-CSF and serum. With this exception there was no enhancement of bacterial killing for the range of combinations of neutrophils and bacterial species tested. In contrast, at the concentrations tested for effect on bactericidal activity, TNF-α and GM-CSF were able to significantly upregulate CR3(but not FcγRII) expression on mouse neutrophils. There results indicate that upregulation of CR3 as an index of neutrophil activation does not necessarily correlate with increased bactericidal activity.     

Problematic character coding methods in morphology and their effects

The effects of different coding practices in morphological phylogenetic analysis are well documented. In many cases, we can determine that certain practices can be regarded as undesirable and should be avoided. Certain coding practices do not correctly translate the expected information to the cladistic algorithm. It may go unnoticed that expressions of character information in character lists, which may be entirely logical to any reader, do not necessarily reflect the mathematics employed by a phylogenetic algorithm. Despite a wealth of literature on coding procedures and documentation of these issues, problematic character coding practices are still common. A review is provided of different coding and character formulation practices, particularly relating to multistate character information that may either: (1) lead to a failure to capture grouping information implied in the character list; (2) cause problematic weighting or spuriously high certainty in particular optimizations; and (3) impose congruence artificially, by linking more than one variable character to a particular state. Each of these is reviewed and presented with a hypothetical example. Recommendations for avoiding these pitfalls are described in light of how parsimony algorithms work with character data. Character lists must be drawn up not only to present character variation logically, but also with consideration for how computer algorithms implement cladistic logic. The widespread use of problematic character coding procedures may account for some of the perceived problems with morphological data. Therefore, an exploration of the effects of these methods and standardization of methods should be a goal for the very near future. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 489–498.     

A Fundamental Problem with Amino-Acid-Sequence Characters for Phylogenetic Analyses

Protein-coding genes may be analyzed in phylogenetic analyses using nucleotide-sequence characters and/or amino-acid-sequence characters. Although amino-acid-sequence characters "correct" for saturation (parallelism), amino-acid-sequence characters are subject to convergence and ignore phylogenetically informative variation. When all nucleotide-sequence characters have a consistency index of 1, characters coded using the amino acid sequence may have a consistency index of less than 1. The reason for this is that most amino acids are specified by more than one codon. If two different codons that both code for the same amino acid are derived independent of one another in divergent lineages, nucleotide-sequence characters may not be homoplasious when amino-acid-sequence characters may be homoplasious. Not only may amino-acid-sequence characters support groupings that are not supported by nucleotide-sequence characters, they may support contradictory groupings. Because this convergence is a problem of character delimitation, it affects the results of all tree-construction methods (maximum likelihood, neighbor joining, parsimony, etc.). In effect, coding amino-acid-sequence characters instead of nucleotide-sequence characters putatively corrects for saturation and definitely causes a convergence problem. An empirical example from the Mhc locus is given.     

Effects of data incompleteness on the relative performance of parsimony and Bayesian approaches in a supermatrix phylogenetic reconstruction of Mustelidae and Procyonidae (Carnivora)

Missing data are commonly thought to impede a resolved or accurate reconstruction of phylogenetic relationships, and probabilistic analysis techniques are increasingly viewed as less vulnerable to the negative effects of data incompleteness than parsimony analyses. We test both assumptions empirically by conducting parsimony and Bayesian analyses on an approximately 1.5 × 10⁶‐cell (27 965 characters × 52 species) mustelid–procyonid molecular supermatrix with 62.7% missing entries. Contrary to the first assumption, phylogenetic relationships inferred from our analyses are fully (Bayesian) or almost fully (parsimony) resolved topologically with mostly strong support and also largely in accord with prior molecular estimations of mustelid and procyonid phylogeny derived with parsimony, Bayesian, and other probabilistic analysis techniques from smaller but complete or nearly complete data sets. Contrary to the second assumption, we found no compelling evidence in support of a relationship between the inferior performance of parsimony and taxon incompleteness (i.e. the proportion of missing character data for a taxon), although we found evidence for a connection between the inferior performance of parsimony and character incompleteness (i.e. no overlap in character data between some taxa). The relatively good performance of our analyses may be related to the large number of sampled characters, so that most taxa (even highly incomplete ones) are represented by a sufficient number of characters allowing both approaches to resolve their relationships. © The Willi Hennig Society 2009.     

Corroboration versus "Strongest Evidence"

Background knowledge comprises accepted (well-corroborated) theories and results. Such theories are taken to be true for the purpose of interpreting evidence when assessing the corroboration of a hypothesis currently in question. Accordingly, background knowledge does not properly include rejected theories, false assumptions, or null models. In particular, regarding a model of random character distribution as "background knowledge" would rule out corroboration of phylogenetic hypotheses, since it would make character data irrelevant to inferring phylogeny. The presence of homoplasy is not grounds for treating characters as if they were randomly distributed, since characters can show strong phylogenetic structure even when they show homoplasy. This means that clique (compatibility) analysis is unjustified, since that method depends crucially on the assumption that characters showing any homoplasy at all are unrelated to phylogeny. Although likelihood does not measure corroboration, corroboration is closely connected to likelihood: for given evidence and background, the most likely trees are also best corroborated. Most parsimonious trees are best corroborated; the apparent clash between parsimony and likelihood is an artifact of the use of unrealistic models in most "maximum likelihood" methods.     

Reconstruction of adaptive radiation in insular habitats using integrated biogeographic information

Aim To develop an analytical method for accurately reconstructing the biogeographic events associated with adaptive radiation in a system of insular habitats. Location An idealized, two-dimensional model system of insular habitats is based on the altitudinally stratified vegetation zones on the island-like mountains of eastern Africa. Methods The model system is treated as a two-dimensional array of insular habitats, and adaptive radiation is treated as a ‘space-filling’ process according to six premises based on uniformitarian principles. Previous approaches to this class of problems have used (1) Hennig's progression rule, (2) optimization of biogeographic character states, and (3) reasoned argumentation with an intuitive synthesis of information. The strengths and limitations of these previous approaches are evaluated. Results A closed analytical method is presented that accurately reconstructs biogeographic events. This methodological approach integrates atomized information back up to the appropriate level of biological organization and has general applicability to phylogenetic analysis. Main conclusions In a truly evolutionary approach to phylogenetic systematics and biogeography, the initial analysis of the pattern of descent should be complemented with a subsequent analysis of the pattern of modification. The method presented here offers one approach to analysing the pattern of modification, which in this case constitutes biogeographic movement.     

Loss of phylogenetic information in chorion gene families of Bombyx mori gene conversion

The silkmoth chorion has provided a stimulating model for the study of evolution and developmental regulation of gene families. Previous attempts at inferring relationships among chorion sequences have been based on pairwise comparisons of overall similarity, a potentially problematic approach. To remedy this, we identified the alignable regions of low sequence variability and then analyzed this restricted database by parsimony and neighbor-joining methods. At the deepest level, the chorion sequence tree is split into two branches, called "alpha" and "beta." Within each branch, early- and late-expressing genes each constitute monophyletic groups, while the situation with middle-expressing genes remains uncertain. The HcB gene family appears to be the most basal beta-branch group, but this conclusion is qualified because the effect of gene conversion on branching order is unknown. Previous studies by Eickbush and colleagues have strongly suggested that ErA, HcA, and HcB families undergo gene conversion within a gene family, whereas the ErB family does not. The occurrence of conversion correlates with a particular tree structure; namely, branch lengths are much greater at the base of the family than at higher internodes and terminal branches. These observations raise the possibility that chorion gene families are defined by gene conversion events (reticulate evolution) rather than by descent with modification (synapomorphy).