HOW IS THE RATE OF CLIMATIC‐NICHE EVOLUTION RELATED TO CLIMATIC‐NICHE BREADTH?

The rate of climatic‐niche evolution is important to many research areas in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology, including responses of species to global climate change, spread of invasive species, speciation, biogeography, and patterns of species richness. Previous studies have implied that clades with higher rates of climatic‐niche evolution among species should have species with narrower niche breadths, but there is also evidence suggesting the opposite pattern. However, the relationships between rate and breadth have not been explicitly analyzed. Here, we examine the relationships between the rate of climatic‐niche evolution and climatic‐niche breadth using phylogenetic and climatic data for 250 species in the salamander family Plethodontidae, a group showing considerable variation in both rates of climatic‐niche evolution and climatic‐niche breadths. Contrary to some expectations, we find no general relationship between climatic‐niche breadth and the rate of climatic‐niche evolution. Climatic‐niche breadths for some ecologically important climatic variables considered separately (temperature seasonality and annual precipitation) do show significant relationships with the rate of climatic‐niche evolution, but rates are faster in clades in which species have broader (not narrower) niche breadths. In summary, our results show that narrower niche breadths are not necessarily associated with faster rates of niche evolution.     

HOW DOES POLLEN VERSUS SEED DISPERSAL AFFECT NICHE EVOLUTION?

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen.     

DOES RECOMBINATION CONSTRAIN NEUTRAL DIVERGENCE AMONG BACTERIAL TAXA?

A coalescence model for predicting the fate of neutral divergence among closely related taxa distinguishable as separate DNA sequence clusters is presented here. The model simulates iteratively the positive feedback between sequence divergence and sexual isolation among taxa, where increases in sequence divergence result in reduced recombination, and reduced recombination results in increased sequence divergence. Iteration of this feedback is continued until sequence divergence either converges on a steady state or reaches a runaway process. The eventual outcome of sequence divergence was shown to depend on four estimable population-genetic parameters: the expected intrataxon sequence diversity, the baseline rate of intertaxon recombination, the sensitivity of the recombination rate to sequence divergence, and the neutral mutation rate. The model can be used to determine whether neutral divergence among actual taxa is destined to stop at an equilibrium level, or whether neutral divergence will reach a runaway process. Application of the model to the group of taxa containing Bacillus subtilis and its closest relatives showed these taxa to be on a trajectory of unbounded neutral divergence from one another.     

ESTIMATING DIVERSIFICATION RATES: HOW USEFUL ARE DIVERGENCE TIMES?

The dynamics of species diversification rates are a key component of macroevolutionary patterns. Although not absolutely necessary, the use of divergence times inferred from sequence data has led to development of more powerful methods for inferring diversification rates. However, it is unclear what impact uncertainty in age estimates have on diversification rate inferences. Here, we quantify these effects using both Bayesian and frequentist methodology. Through simulation, we demonstrate that adding sequence data results in more precise estimates of internal node ages, but a reasonable approximation of these node ages is often sufficient to approach the theoretical minimum variance in speciation rate estimates. We also find that even crude estimates of divergence times increase the power of tests of diversification rate differences between sister clades. Finally, because Bayesian and frequentist methods provided similar assessments of error, novel Bayesian approaches may provide a useful framework for tests of diversification rates in more complex contexts than are addressed here.     

DOES NICHE CONSERVATISM PROMOTE SPECIATION? A CASE STUDY IN NORTH AMERICAN SALAMANDERS

Recent speciation research has generally focused on how lineages that originate in allopatry evolve intrinsic reproductive isolation, or how ecological divergence promotes nonallopatric speciation. However, the ecological basis of allopatric isolation, which underlies the most common geographic mode of speciation, remains poorly understood and largely unstudied. Here, we explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that promote speciation in Desmognathus and Plethodon salamanders from temperate eastern North America. Based on published molecular phylogenetic estimates and the degree of geographic range overlap among extant species, we find strong evidence for a role for geographic isolation in speciation. We then examine the relationship between climatic variation and speciation in 16 sister-taxon pairs using geographic information system maps of climatic variables, new methods for modeling species' potential geographic distributions, and data on geographic patterns of genetic variation. In contrast to recent studies in tropical montane regions, we found no evidence for parapatric speciation along climatic gradients. Instead, many montane sister taxa in the Appalachian Highlands inhabit similar climatic niches and seemingly are allopatric because they are unable to tolerate the climatic conditions in the intervening lowlands. This temporal and spatial-ecological pattern suggests that niche conservatism, rather than niche divergence, plays the primary role in promoting allopatric speciation and montane endemism in this species-rich group of vertebrates. Our results demonstrate that even the relatively subtle climatic differences between montane and lowland habitats in eastern North America may play a key role in the origin of new species.     

DOES VARIATION IN SELECTION IMPOSED BY BEARS DRIVE DIVERGENCE AMONG POPULATIONS IN THE SIZE AND SHAPE OF SOCKEYE SALMON?

Few studies have determined whether formal estimates of selection explain patterns of trait divergence among populations, yet this is one approach for evaluating whether the populations are in equilibria. If adaptive divergence is complete, directional selection should be absent and stabilizing selection should prevail. We estimated natural selection, due to bear predation, acting on the body size and shape of male salmon in three breeding populations that experience differing predation regimes. Our approach was to (1) estimate selection acting within each population on each trait based on an empirical estimate of reproductive activity, (2) test for trait divergence among populations, and (3) test whether selection coefficients were correlated with trait divergence among populations. Stabilizing selection was never significant, indicating that these populations have yet to attain equilibria. Directional selection varied among populations in a manner consistent with trait divergence, indicating ongoing population differentiation. Specifically, the rank order of the creeks in terms of patterns of selection paralleled the rank order in terms of size and shape. The shortest and least deep-bodied males had the highest reproductive activity in the creek with the most intense predation and longer and deeper-bodied males were favored in the creeks with lower predation risk.     

DOES GENE FLOW CONSTRAIN ADAPTIVE DIVERGENCE OR VICE VERSA? A TEST USING ECOMORPHOLOGY AND SEXUAL ISOLATION IN TIMEMA CRISTINAE WALKING‐STICKS

Population differentiation often reflects a balance between divergent natural selection and the opportunity for homogenizing gene flow to erode the effects of selection. However, during ecological speciation, trait divergence results in reproductive isolation and becomes a cause, rather than a consequence, of reductions in gene flow. To assess both the causes and the reproductive consequences of morphological differentiation, we examined morphological divergence and sexual isolation among 17 populations of Timema cristinae walking-sticks. Individuals from populations adapted to using Adenostoma as a host plant tended to exhibit smaller overall body size, wide heads, and short legs relative to individuals using Ceonothus as a host. However, there was also significant variation in morphology among populations within host-plant species. Mean trait values for each single population could be reliably predicted based upon host-plant used and the potential for homogenizing gene flow, inferred from the size of the neighboring population using the alternate host and mitochondrial DNA estimates of gene flow. Morphology did not influence the probability of copulation in between-population mating trials. Thus, morphological divergence is facilitated by reductions in gene flow, but does not cause reductions in gene flow via the evolution of sexual isolation. Combined with rearing data indicating that size and shape have a partial genetic basis, evidence for parallel origins of the host-associated forms, and inferences from functional morphology, these results indicate that morphological divergence in T. cristinae reflects a balance between the effects of host-specific natural selection and gene flow. Our findings illustrate how data on mating preferences can help determine the causal associations between trait divergence and levels of gene flow.     

HOW MUCH OF THE VARIATION IN ADAPTIVE DIVERGENCE CAN BE EXPLAINED BY GENE FLOW? AN EVALUATION USING LAKE‐STREAM STICKLEBACK PAIRS

Abstract How much of the variation in adaptive divergence can be explained by gene flow? The answer to this question should objectively reveal whether gene flow generally places a substantial constraint on evolutionary diversification. We studied multiple independent lake‐stream population pairs of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus acu‐leatus). For each pair, we quantified adaptive divergence based on morphological traits that have a genetic basis and are subject to divergent selection. We then estimated gene flow based on variation at five unlinked microsatellite loci. We found a consistent and significant pattern for morphological divergence to be positively correlated with genetic divergence and negatively correlated with gene flow. Statistical significance and the amount of variation explained varied within and among traits: 36.1–74.1% for body depth and 11.8–51.7% for gill raker number. Variation within each trait was the result of differences among methods for estimating genetic divergence and gene flow. Variation among traits likely reflects different strengths of divergent selection. We conclude that gene flow has a substantial effect on adaptive divergence in nature but that the magnitude of this effect varies among traits. An alternative explanation is that cause and effect are reversed: adaptive divergence is instead constraining gene flow. This effect seems relatively unimportant for our system because genetic divergence and gene flow were not correlated with ecologically relevant habitat features of lakes (surface area) or streams (width, depth, flow, canopy openness).