Knowing your enemies: Integrating molecular and ecological methods to assess the impact of arthropod predators on crop pests

The importance of natural enemies as the foundation of integrated pest management (IPM) is widely accepted, but few studies conduct the manipulative field experiments necessary to directly quantify their impact on pest populations in this context. This is particularly true for predators. Studying arthropod predator–prey interactions is inherently difficult: prey items are often completely consumed, individual predator–prey interactions are ephemeral (rendering their detection difficult) and the typically fluid or soft‐bodied meals cannot be easily identified visually within predator guts. Serological techniques have long been used in arthropod predator gut‐contents analysis, and current enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) are highly specific and sensitive. Recently, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods for gut‐contents analysis have developed rapidly and they now dominate the diagnostic methods used for gut‐contents analysis in field‐based research. This work has identified trophic linkages within food webs, determined predator diet breadth and preference, demonstrated the importance of cannibalism and intraguild predation within and between certain taxa, and confirmed the benefits (predator persistence) and potential disadvantages (reduced feeding on pest species) of the availability of alternative nonpest prey. Despite considerable efforts to calibrate gut‐contents assays, these methods remain qualitative. Available techniques for predator gut‐contents analysis can provide rapid, accurate, cost‐effective identification of predation events. As such, they perfectly compliment the ecological methods developed to directly assess predator impacts on prey populations but which are imperfect at identifying the key predators. These diagnostic methods for gut‐contents analysis are underexploited in agricultural research and they are almost never applied in unison with the critical field experiments to measure predator impact. This paper stresses the need for a combined approach and suggests a framework that would make this possible, so that appropriate natural enemies can be targeted in conservation biological control.     

Insectivorous bats selectively source moths and eat mostly pest insects on dryland and irrigated cotton farms

Insectivorous bats are efficient predators of pest arthropods in agroecosystems. This pest control service has been estimated to be worth billions of dollars to agriculture globally. However, few studies have explicitly investigated the composition and abundance of dietary prey items consumed or assessed the ratio of pest and beneficial arthropods, making it difficult to evaluate the quality of the pest control service provided. In this study, we used metabarcoding to identify the prey items eaten by insectivorous bats over the cotton‐growing season in an intensive cropping region in northern New South Wales, Australia. We found that seven species of insectivorous bat (n = 58) consumed 728 prey species, 13 of which represented around 50% of total prey abundance consumed. Importantly, the identified prey items included major arthropod pests, comprising 65% of prey relative abundance and 13% of prey species recorded. Significant cotton pests such as Helicoverpa punctigera (Australian bollworm) and Achyra affinitalis (cotton webspinner) were detected in at least 76% of bat fecal samples, with Teleogryllus oceanicus (field crickets), Helicoverpa armigera (cotton bollworm), and Crocidosema plebejana (cotton tipworm) detected in 55% of bat fecal samples. Our results indicate that insectivorous bats are selective predators that exploit a narrow selection of preferred pest taxa and potentially play an important role in controlling lepidopteran pests on cotton farms. Our study provides crucial information for farmers to determine the service or disservice provided by insectivorous bats in relation to crops, for on‐farm decision making.     

Death feigning as an adaptive anti‐predator behaviour: Further evidence for its evolution from artificial selection and natural populations

Death feigning is considered to be an adaptive antipredator behaviour. Previous studies on Tribolium castaneum have shown that prey which death feign have a fitness advantage over those that do not when using a jumping spider as the predator. Whether these effects are repeatable across species or whether they can be seen in nature is, however, unknown. Therefore, the present study involved two experiments: (a) divergent artificial selection for the duration of death feigning using a related species T. freemani as prey and a predatory bug as predator, demonstrating that previous results are repeatable across both prey and predator species, and (b) comparison of the death‐feigning duration of T. castaneum populations collected from field sites with and without predatory bugs. In the first experiment, T. freemani adults from established selection regimes with longer durations of death feigning had higher survival rates and longer latency to being preyed on when they were placed with predatory bugs than the adults from regimes selected for shorter durations of death feigning. As a result, the adaptive significance of death‐feigning behaviour was demonstrated in another prey–predator system. In the second experiment, wild T. castaneum beetles from populations with predators feigned death longer than wild beetles from predator‐free populations. Combining the results from these two experiments with those from previous studies provided strong evidence that predators drive the evolution of longer death feigning.     

Aphid cards – Useful model for assessing predation rates or bias prone nonsense?

Predation on pest organisms is an essential ecosystem function supporting yields in modern agriculture. However, assessing predation rates is intricate, and they can rarely be linked directly to predator densities or functions. We tested whether sentinel prey aphid cards are useful tools to assess predation rates in the field. Therefore, we looked at aphid cards of different sizes on the ground level as well as within the vegetation. Additionally, by trapping ground-dwelling predators, we examined whether obtained predation rates could be linked to predator densities and traits. Predation rates recorded with aphid cards were independent of aphid card size. However, predation rates on the ground level were three times higher than within the vegetation. We found both predatory carabid activity densities as well as community weighted mean body size to be good predictors for predation rates. Predation rates obtained from aphid cards are stable over card type and related to predator assemblages. Aphid cards, therefore, are a useful, efficient method for rapidly assessing the ecosystem function predation. Their use might especially be recommended for assessments on the ground level and when time and resource limitations rule out more elaborate sentinel prey methods using exclosures with living prey animals.     

Predator impacts on stream benthic prey

The impact that predators have on benthic, macroinvertebrate prey density in streams is unclear. While some studies show a strong effect of predators on prey density, others show little or no effect. Two factors appear to influence the detection of predator impact on prey density in streams. First, many field studies have small sample sizes and thus might be unable to detect treatment effects. Second, streams contain two broad classes of predators, invertebrates and vertebrates, which might have different impacts on prey density for a variety of reasons, including availability of refuge for prey and prey emigration responses to the two types of predators. In addition, predatory vertebrates have more complex prey communities than predatory invertebrates; this complexity might reduce the impact that predatory vertebrates have on prey because of indirect effects. I conducted a meta-analysis on the results of field studies that manipulate predator density in enclosures to determine (1) if predators have a significant impact on benthic prey density in streams, (2) if the impacts that predatory invertebrates and vertebrates have differ, and (3) if predatory vertebrates have different impacts on predatory prey versus herbivorous prey. The results of the meta-analysis suggest that on average predators have a significant negative effect on prey density, predatory invertebrates have a significantly stronger impact than predatory vertebrates, and predatory vertebrates do not differ in their impact on predatory versus herbivorous invertebrate prey. Three methodological variables (mesh size of enclosures, size of enclosures, and experimental duration) were examined to determine if cross correlations exist that may explain the differences in impact between predatory invertebrates and vertebrates. No correlation exists between mesh size and predator impact. Over all predators, no correlation exists between experimental duration and predator impact; however, within predatory invertebrates a correlation does exist between these variables. Also, a correlation was found between enclosure size and predator impact. This correlation potentially explains the difference in impact between predatory invertebrates and predatory vertebrates. Results of the meta-analysis suggest two important areas for future research: (1) manipulate both types of predators within the same system, and (2) examine their impacts on the same spatial scale.     

Two common invertebrate predators show varying predation responses to different types of sentinel prey

Sentinel prey (an artificially manipulated patch of prey) are widely used to assess the level of predation provided by natural enemies in agricultural systems. Whilst a number of different methodologies are currently in use, little is known about how arthropod predators respond to artificially manipulated sentinel prey in comparison with predation on free‐living prey populations. We assessed how attack rates on immobilized (aphids stuck to cards) and artificial (plasticine lepidopteran larvae mimics) sentinel prey differed to predation on free‐moving live prey (aphids). Predation was assessed in response to density of the common invertebrate predators, a foliar‐active ladybird Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and a ground‐active beetle Pterostichus madidus (Coleoptera: Carabidae). Significant increases in attack rates were found for the immobilized and artificial prey between the low and high predator density treatments. However, an increased predator density did not significantly reduce numbers of free‐living live aphids included in the mesocosms in addition to the alternate prey. We also found no signs of predation on the artificial prey by the predator H. axyridis. These findings suggest that if our assessment of predation had been based solely on the foliar artificial prey, then no increase in predation would have been found in response to increased predator density. Our results demonstrate that predators differentially respond to sentinel prey items which could affect the level of predation recorded where target pest species are not being used.     

Dropping to escape: a review of an under‐appreciated antipredator defence

Dropping is a common antipredator defence that enables rapid escape from a perceived threat. However, despite its immediate effectiveness in predator–prey encounters (and against other dangers such as a parasitoid or an aggressive conspecific), it remains an under‐appreciated defence strategy in the scientific literature. Dropping has been recorded in a wide range of taxa, from primates to lizards, but has been studied most commonly in insects. Insects have been found to utilise dropping in response to both biotic and abiotic stimuli, sometimes dependent on mechanical or chemical cues. Whatever the trigger for dropping, the decision to drop by prey will present a range of inter‐related costs and benefits to the individual and so there will be subtle complexities in the trade‐offs surrounding this defensive behaviour. In predatory encounters, dropping by prey will also impose varying costs and benefits on the predator – or predators – involved in the system. There may be important trade‐offs involved in the decision made by predators regarding whether to pursue prey or not, but the predator perspective on dropping has been less explored at present. Beyond its function as an escape tactic, dropping has also been suggested to be an important precursor to flight in insects and further study could greatly improve understanding of its evolutionary importance. Dropping in insects could also prove of significant practical importance if an improved understanding can be applied to integrated pest‐management strategies. Currently the non‐consumptive effects of predators on their prey are under‐appreciated in biological control and it may be that the dropping behaviour of many pest species could be exploited via management practices to improve crop protection. Overall, this review aims to provide a comprehensive synthesis of the current literature on dropping and to raise awareness of this fascinating and widespread behaviour. It also seeks to offer some novel hypotheses and highlight key avenues for future research.     

Do native predators benefit from non‐native prey?

Despite knowledge on invasive species’ predatory effects, we know little of their influence as prey. Non‐native prey should have a neutral to positive effect on native predators by supplementing the prey base. However, if non‐native prey displace native prey, then an invader's net influence should depend on both its abundance and value relative to native prey. We conducted a meta‐analysis to quantify the effect of non‐native prey on native predator populations. Relative to native prey, non‐native prey similarly or negatively affect native predators, but only when studies employed a substitutive design that examined the effects of each prey species in isolation from other prey. When native predators had access to non‐native and native prey simultaneously, predator abundance increased significantly relative to pre‐invasion abundance. Although non‐native prey may have a lower per capita value than native prey, they seem to benefit native predators by serving as a supplemental prey resource.     

Field spray abdominal gland secretions of rove beetles: Effects on the pest abundance and arthropod community

Alternative environmentally friendly methods for pest control are in high demand because of the environmental impacts of pesticides. Notably, predator-released kairomone is a natural compound released by natural enemies, which mediates non-consumptive effects between natural enemies and prey. However, this novel pest control agent is underutilized relative to pesticides and natural enemies. Additionally, the effects of spraying predator kairomone on the number and diversity of arthropods in fields and whether this method is environmental-friendly are poorly understood. In the present study, a predator kairomone, rove beetle (Paederus fuscipes Curtis) abdominal gland secretion (AGS), was sprayed in rice fields to investigate whether AGS can suppress pest populations or will affect the fields’ arthropod communities. After AGS spraying, the abundance of arthropods decreased throughout the first 12-d period, including arthropod pests such as hemipterans (small brown planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus (Fallén), brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), and leafhoppers), and lepidopterans (rice leaf folder, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenée). The abundance of arthropod predators was not affected, except for predatory spiders, which decreased, and rove beetles (P. fuscipes), which increased. In the terms of arthropod diversity, neither pests nor their natural enemies were changed by AGS application. This work highlights that predator kairomone can temporarily suppress pest populations in fields but has no adverse effects on arthropod diversity; thus, this approach is environmentally friendly and can be used in real-world applications. Broadly, present studies suggest that the application of predator kairomone may have synergistic or cumulative effects on pest suppression.     

Notonomus gravis (Chaudoir) (Coleoptera: Carabidae) predation of Deroceras reticulatum Müller (Gastropoda: Agriolimacidae), an example of fortuitous biological control

The increasing use of pesticides in broad-acre cropping in South eastern Australia is suspected to have reduced native carabid beetle populations which fortuitously control potential pest populations. Slugs are increasingly becoming an establishment pest of canola, which is often attributed to stubble retention introduced to arable farming systems. Exclusion enclosures were employed to test the effect of the native carabid Notonomus gravis on the exotic pest slug Deroceras reticulatum. The native predatory species limited D. reticulatum populations and this was further supported by a negative field association between the predator and slug numbers. However, while N. gravis contributed to control of slug populations, enclosure experiments suggest that slug damage was not reduced below economic thresholds by this predator alone. Although N. gravis provides a “lying in wait” pest control option for slugs, multiple predators and environmental interactions need to be considered in developing robust integrated pest management guidelines.     

Experimental evolution of a microbial predator's ability to find prey

Foraging theory seeks to explain how the distribution and abundance of prey influence the evolution of predatory behaviour, including the allocation of effort to searching for prey and handling them after they are found. While experiments have shown that many predators alter their behaviour phenotypically within individual lifetimes, few have examined the actual evolution of predatory behaviour in light of this theory. Here, we test the effects of prey density on the evolution of a predator's searching and handling behaviours using a bacterial predator, Myxococcus xanthus. Sixteen predator populations evolved for almost a year on agar surfaces containing patches of Escherichia coli prey at low or high density. Improvements in searching rate were significantly greater in those predators that evolved at low prey density. Handling performance also improved in some predator populations, but prey density did not significantly affect the magnitude of these gains. As the predators evolved greater foraging proficiency, their capacity diminished to produce fruiting bodies that enable them to survive prolonged periods of starvation. More generally, these results demonstrate that predators evolve behaviours that reflect at least some of the opportunities and limitations imposed by the distribution and abundance of their prey.     

Combining lacewings and parasitoids for biological control of foxglove aphids in sweet pepper

The role of natural enemy diversity in biological pest control has been debated in many studies, and understanding how interactions amongst predators and parasitoids affect herbivore populations is crucial for pest management. In this study, we assessed the individual and combined use of two species of natural enemies, the parasitoid Aphidius ervi Haliday, and the predatory brown lacewing Micromus variegatus (Fabricius), on their shared prey, the foxglove aphid, Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach), on sweet pepper. We hypothesized that the presence of intraguild predation (IGP) and predator facilitation (through induced aphid dropping behaviour) might have both negative and positive effects on aphid control, respectively. Our greenhouse trial showed that overall, the greatest suppression of aphids occurred in the treatment with both the parasitoid and the lacewing. While the combination of lacewings and parasitoids significantly increased aphid control compared to the use of parasitoids alone, the effect was not significantly different to the treatment with only predators, although there was a clear trend of enhanced suppression. Thus, the combined effects of both species of natural enemies were between additive and non‐additive, suggesting that the combination is neither positive nor negative for aphid control. High levels of IGP, as proven in the laboratory, were probably compensated for by the strong aphid suppression provided by the lacewings, whether or not supplemented with some level of predator facilitation. For aphid management over a longer time scale, it might still be useful to combine lacewings and parasitoids to ensure stable and resilient aphid control.     

Predation and searching efficiency of a ladybird beetle, Coccinella septempunctata Linnaeus in laboratory environment

The predation and searching efficiency of fourth instar of predatory C. septempunctata at various densities of mustard aphid, Lipaphis erysimi (Kaltenbach) and predator was investigated under laboratory conditions. The feeding rate of predatory stage decreased at increased prey- and predator densities. Highest percent (92.80%) prey consumption was observed at initial prey density and lowest percent (40.86%) prey consumption at highest prey density by the fourth instar, though the total prey consumption increased with increase in either prey- or predator densities. Similarly, the individual prey consumption was also highest at initial predator density and lowest at highest predator density owing to the mutual interference between the predators at higher densities. The area of discovery (searching efficiency) also decreased with increase in prey- and predator densities. Handling time of predator was highest at lower prey densities, which decreased with increased prey densities. The highest percentage of prey consumption at the prey density of 50 revealed that 1:50 predator-prey ratio was the best to reduce the pest population.     

The role of prey taxis in biological control: a spatial theoretical model

We study a reaction-diffusion-advection model for the dynamics of populations under biological control. A control agent is assumed to be a predator species that has the ability to perceive the heterogeneity of pest distribution. The advection term represents the predator density movement according to a basic prey taxis assumption: acceleration of predators is proportional to the prey density gradient. The prey population reproduces logistically, and the local population interactions follow the Holling Type II trophic function. On the scale of the population, our spatially explicit approach subdivides the predation process into random movement represented by diffusion, directed movement described by prey taxis, local prey encounters, and consumption modeled by the trophic function. Thus, our model allows studying the effects of large-scale predator spatial activity on population dynamics. We show under which conditions spatial patterns are generated by prey taxis and how this affects the predator ability to maintain the pest population below some economic threshold. In particular, intermediate taxis activity can stabilize predator-pest populations at a very low level of pest density, ensuring successful biological control. However, very intensive prey taxis destroys the stability, leading to chaotic dynamics with pronounced outbreaks of pest density.     

Prey Responses to Predator's Sounds: A Review and Empirical Study

Many animals assess their risk of predation by listening to and evaluating predators' vocalizations. We reviewed the literature to draw generalizations about predator discrimination abilities, the retention of these abilities over evolutionary time, and the potential underlying proximate mechanisms responsible for discrimination. Broadly, we found that some prey possess an ability to respond to a predator after having been evolutionarily isolated from a specific predator (i.e., predators are allopatric) and that some prey are predisposed to respond to certain types of predators that they coevolved with but without having ecological experience. However, these types of studies are lacking, and relatively, few studies have examined predator discrimination abilities in ungulates. To begin addressing these knowledge gaps, we performed field experiments on Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in which we investigated the ability of deer to discriminate among familiar predators [coyotes (Canis latrans) and mountain lions (Puma concolor)] and an evolutionary relevant predator with which deer have had no recent exposure [locally extinct wolves (Canis lupus)]. We found that Mule deer respond to and discriminate among predators based on predator vocalizations and have retained an ability to respond to wolves that have been extinct from the study area since the early 20th century. Previous playback studies have shown that responses vary among human‐habituated and non‐habituated populations and differ according to human proximity. Deer greater than 0.5 km from human residences allocated more time to heightened responses both before and after stimulus playback. Our findings may help predict how prey–predator interactions may change as a result of the recovering wolf population with a basis in ecological and evolutionary experience in predator discrimination and desensitization.     

Host-parasitoid spatial ecology: a plea for a landscape-level synthesis

A growing body of literature points to a large-scale research approach as essential for understanding population and community ecology. Many of our advances regarding the spatial ecology of predators and prey can be attributed to research with insect parasitoids and their hosts. In this review, we focus on the progress that has been made in the study of the movement and population dynamics of hosts and their parasitoids in heterogeneous landscapes, and how this research approach may be beneficial to pest management programs. To date, few studies have quantified prey and predator rates and ranges of dispersal and population dynamics at the patch level--the minimum of information needed to characterize population structure. From host-parasitoid studies with sufficient data, it is clear that the spatial scale of dispersal can differ significantly between a prey and its predators, local prey extinctions can be attributed to predators and predator extinction risk at the patch level often exceeds that of the prey. It is also evident that populations can be organized as a single, highly connected (patchy) population or as semi-independent extinction-prone local populations that collectively form a persistent metapopulation. A prey and its predators can also differ in population structure. At the landscape level, agricultural studies indicate that predator effects on its prey often spill over between the crop and surrounding area (matrix) and can depend strongly on landscape structure (e.g. the proportion of suitable habitat) at scales extending well beyond the crop margins. In light of existing empirical data, predator-prey models are typically spatially unrealistic, lacking important details on boundary responses and movement behaviour within and among patches. The tools exist for conducting empirical and theoretical research at the landscape level and we hope that this review calls attention to fertile areas for future exploration.     

Current status and future perspectives on natural enemies for pest control in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

In Taiwan, the agricultural policy, ‘Reduce the consumption of pesticide to half in the next 10 years’, was launched in 2017. Pesticide application, which results in contamination of food by chemical residues, pest resistance, and other adverse ecological effects, is a growing public and environmental concern. Pest control by natural predators is, thus, the best alternative. Biological control methods implemented based on insights obtained from studies on pest behaviour, rearing, and various crop management modes, increase the possibility of controlling pests in modern organic agricultural systems. More than a decade has passed since the first introduction of a predatory insect in Taiwan for pest control (in the 1990s). Predatory and parasitic natural enemies, including lacewing, predatory stink bugs, Orius, and parasitic wasps, were initially used for controlling thrips, aphids, spider mites, whiteflies, and lepidopteran pests. At present, there exists a wide range of integrated pest management (IPM) methods incorporating other non-chemical, biological, and agricultural methods. However, recently, there has been an increase in research and development on the utilisation of natural enemies of insects and the associated food safety issues. Mass production and release, storage, and handling techniques of insect predators and parasitoids have been successful in recent years. The final goal of present day research is to develop natural enemy products and provide an IPM-based model to farmers for using natural enemies in agricultural production systems, thereby reducing pesticide application and ensuring food security.     

Amphipod (Gammarus minus) responses to predators and predator impact on amphipod density

Recent theoretical work suggests that predator impact on local prey density will be the result of interactions between prey emigration responses to predators and predator consumption of prey. Whether prey increase or decrease their movement rates in response to predators will greatly influence the impact that predators have on prey density. In stream systems the type of predator, benthic versus water-column, is expected to influence whether prey increase or decrease their movement rates. Experiments were conducted to examine the response of amphipods (Gammarus minus) to benthic and water-column predators and to examine the interplay between amphipod response to predators and predator consumption of prey in determining prey density. Amphipods did not respond to nor were they consumed by the benthic predator. Thus, this predator had no impact on amphipod density. In contrast, amphipods did respond to two species of water-column predators (the predatory fish bluegills, Lepomis macrochirus, and striped shiners, Luxilus chrysocephalus) by decreasing their activity rates. This response led to similar positive effects on amphipod density at night by both species of predatory fish. However, striped shiners did not consume many amphipods, suggesting their impact on the whole amphipod “population” was zero. In contrast, bluegills consumed a significant number of amphipods, and thus had a negative impact on the amphipod “population”. These results lend support to theoretical work which suggests that prey behavioral responses to predators can mask the true impact that predators have on prey populations when experiments are conducted at small scales. Received: 21 March 1997 / Accepted: 15 December 1997     

Natural born killers: an invasive amphipod is predatory throughout its life-history

Introduced predators can have profound impacts on prey populations, with subsequent ramifications throughout entire ecosystems. However, studies of predator–prey interaction strengths in community and food-web analyses focus on adults or use average body sizes. This ignores ontogenetic changes, or lack thereof, in predatory capabilities over the life-histories of predators. Additionally, large individual predators might not be physically capable of consuming very small prey individuals. Both situations are important to resolve, as native prey may or may not therefore experience ontogenetic or size refuges from invasive predators. Here, we find that the freshwater amphipod invader, Gammarus pulex, is predatory throughout its development from juvenile through to adult. All size classes collected in the field had a common prey, nymphs of the mayfly Baetis rhodani, in their guts. In an experiment with predator, prey and experimental arenas scaled for body size, G. pulex juveniles and adults consumed B. rhodani in all size-matched categories. In a second experiment, the largest G. pulex individuals were able to prey on the smallest B. rhodani. Thus, the prey do not benefit from any ontogenetic or size refuge from the predator. This corroborates with the known negative population abundance relationships between this invasive predator and its native prey species. Understanding and predicting invasive predator impacts will be best served when interactions among all life-history stages of predator and prey are considered.     

Ecological effects of invasive alien species on native communities,with particular emphasis on the interactions between aphids and ladybirds

The ecological effects of introduced species on native organisms can sometimes, but not always be significant. The risks associated with invasive alien pests are difficult to quantify. This paper concentrates on the ecological effects of invasive insect predators that feed on pest insects, because the former may potentially affect the biological control of the latter. The literature indicates that invasive predatory insects generally are resistant to changes in environmental conditions, long-lived and voracious with a high reproductive rate, high dispersal ability, able to spread very rapidly across landscapes and exhibit phenotypic plasticity. Their colonization of patches of prey may induce native predators to leave, but the evidence that invaders negatively affect the abundance of the native species is scarce and not persuasive. Insect predators do not substantially affect the abundance of their prey, if the ratio of generation time of the predator to that of the prey is large (the generation time ratio hypothesis), therefore the effect of an invasion by long-lived alien predators on systems consisting of long-lived native predators and short-lived prey on the abundance of the prey is hard to detect.