Assessing the risk of potentially invasive plant species in central Europe

A risk assessment system was developed to assess the invasion potential of new environmental weeds in central Europe. A pre-evaluation step excludes species that are officially controlled, widespread, or intended for use in protected cultures only. Species eligible for risk assessment are classified into three categories (high risk, further observation required, low risk) by rating them according to various biogeographical and ecological aspects. The rating system was validated by testing 47 well-known invasive plant species of temperate Europe and 193 exotic plants which have failed to establish themselves in Switzerland. The overall accuracy was 65%. Accuracy of correctly predicting invasive species was 77%, while accuracy of correctly predicting non-invasive species was 62%. The proposed risk assessment protocol should be understood as a first attempt for a European country and needs modifications. These can only be achieved by applying the system in practice.     

Outlier detection methods are still effective even using virtual species created with the probabilistic approach

Liu et al. (Journal of Biogeography, 2018, 45 :164–176) presented an approach to detect outliers in species distribution data by developing virtual species created using the threshold approach. Meynard et al. (Journal of biogeography, 2019, 46 :2141–2144) raised concerns about this approach stating that ‘using a probabilistic approach … may significantly change results’. Here we provide a new series of simulations using the two approaches and demonstrate that the outlier detection approach based on pseudo species distribution models was still effective when using the probabilistic approach, although the detection rate was lower than when using the threshold approach.     

Using prior information to build probabilistic invasive species risk assessments

Understanding why some introduced species become naturalized and invasive whereas others do not is a major focus of invasion ecology. Invasive species risk assessments address this same question, but are not typically based on the results from recent ecological studies. Applying results from the ecological literature to risk assessment is difficult, in part because there are no general explanations of invasion likelihood across taxa. Most ecological studies are also specific to a particular region and it is unclear whether outcomes in one region will necessarily apply to another. Here we show how a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework can make better use of ecological studies for applied risk assessments. We focus on three key opportunities afforded by these models: (1) the ability to leverage information from one region to form prior expectations for other regions about which little is known, (2) the ability to quantify uncertainty of predictions, and (3) flexibility to incorporate within-group heterogeneities in probabilities of naturalization. We illustrate these principles using a case study where we predict the probability of plant taxa naturalizing in New Zealand and Australia, showing how prior information can be particularly valuable when data are limited. As more studies document invasion patterns around the world, a framework that can formally incorporate prior information will help link the accumulating data on species introductions to risk assessments.     

Age and growth of two newly established invasive populations of Tilapia mariae in northern Australia

Sagittal otoliths were used to age the samples of Tilapia mariae collected from a coastal river and an impoundment. Validation of sagittae checks was achieved using both quantitative marginal increment analysis and by tetracycline marking of the otoliths of fish kept in tanks and in a farm dam. The annulus pattern on the otoliths was generally clear and their formation appeared to be temperature related and largely completed in the Austral spring around September and October. Male T. mariae grow faster and larger than females and the maximum ages of fish from the coastal river and impoundment was 9+ and 4+ years, respectively. Past fish surveys and the absence of older age classes in the impoundment population would suggest that this population was only very recently established.     

Estimating the growth of a newly established moose population using reproductive value

Estimating the population growth rate and environmental stochasticity of long-lived species is difficult because annual variation in population size is influenced by temporal autocorrelations caused by fluctuations in the age-structure. Here we use the dynamics of the reproductive value to estimate the long-term growth rate s and the environmental variance of a moose population that recently colonized the island of Vega in northern Norway. We show that the population growth rate was high (ŝ=0.26). The major stochastic influences on the population dynamics were due to demographic stochasticity, whereas the environmental variance was not significantly different from 0. This supports the suggestion that population growth rates of polytocous ungulates are high, and that demographic stochasticity must be assessed when estimating the growth of small ungulate populations.     

Immunohistochemical characteristics of chicken spleen ellipsoids using newly established monoclonal antibodies

Ellipsoids, the extra-vasculature sites surrounding penicilliary capillaries of the chicken spleen, play critical roles in the immune response and also in the clearance of pathogens or other particles. The meshwork of ellipsoids is formed by fibroblastic reticular cells. To characterize ellipsoidal reticular cells, a series of monoclonal antibodies against the chicken spleen have been developed. Of these antibodies, CSA-1 antibody reacts with fibroblastic reticular cells in ellipsoids and with endothelial cells. The reticular nature of positive cells in ellipsoids is indicated by immuno-electron microscopy, and by double-staining with anti-heat-shock protein 47 kDa (hsp47) antibody. The reaction of CSA-1 with reticular cells is limited in ellipsoids; CSA-1 does not react with reticular cells in other lymphoid organs. These findings indicate that ellipsoidal reticular cells share the antigen with endothelial cells. Ontogenic studies reveal that, on embryonic day 18, the development of ellipsoids is completed, penicilliary capillaries become fenestrated, and CSA-1 expression in ellipsoids begins. These findings suggest that CSA-1 is expressed on the cell surface of ellipsoidal reticular cells once they are exposed to blood flow.     

Reticulate evolution in the natural range of the invasive wetland tree species Melaleuca quinquenervia

The Melaleuca leucadendra complex (broad-leaf paperbarks; Myrtaceae) is a dominant component of the tropical and sub-tropical biota of Australia, particularly in wetlands of high conservation significance. In Florida and other parts of the Americas, however, one member of the group (Melaleuca quinquenervia) is a serious ecological and economic weed. Understanding the relationships and evolution of the group is integral to both conservation and biocontrol efforts. Although the complex is currently considered to include up to 14 species, there has been some concern over taxonomic boundaries within the complex because most species are circumscribed only by combinations of characters, each of which also occurs in other species. Here, DNA sequence data derived from the chloroplast and two nuclear regions are used to explore the relationships of M. quinquenervia. We find little evidence for clear species boundaries within the M. leucadendra complex in general, with regional sharing of chloroplast haplotypes across morphologically defined taxa, indicating asymmetrical introgression or retention of ancestral haplotypes (lineage sorting). Phylogenies were further confounded by the recovery of multiple copies of both nuclear regions sequenced (ITS and rpb2) from many individuals. There was no clear evidence of polyploidy or pseudogenes, but multiple duplications of rpb2 could not be ruled out. Parsimony networks of the nuclear ITS region show some clustering of haplotypes by morphospecies but there is also evidence of both hybridisation and recombination. Signals of introgression were also evident in rpb2, supporting an hypothesis of recent or ongoing gene flow between M. quinquenervia and other members of the M. leucadendra complex. Both relaxed and fixed molecular-clock dating estimate the introgression to have occurred sometime within the past seven million years (95% CI: 0.7-18). The New Caledonian population of M. quinquenervia appears to have been established by dispersal from Australia during this period. M. quinquenervia is found to have alleles closely related to multiple different morphotaxa within the M. leucadendra complex, suggesting considerable past introgression into this taxon from some other members of the M. leucadendra complex, and this has implications for biocontrol efforts. The M. leucadendra complex appears to reflect early to intermediate stages of speciation, possibly driven by different ecologies.     

Multiple dispersal vectors drive range expansion in an invasive marine species

The establishment and subsequent spread of invasive species is widely recognized as one of the most threatening processes contributing to global biodiversity loss. This is especially true for marine and estuarine ecosystems, which have experienced significant increases in the number of invasive species with the increase in global maritime trade. Understanding the rate and mechanisms of range expansion is therefore of significant interest to ecologists and conservation managers alike. Using a combination of population genetic surveys, environmental DNA (eDNA) plankton sampling and hydrodynamic modelling, we examined the patterns of introduction of the predatory Northern Pacific seastar (Asterias amurensis) and pathways of secondary spread within southeast Australia. Genetic surveys across the invasive range reveal some genetic divergence between the two main invasive regions and no evidence of ongoing gene flow, a pattern that is consistent with the establishment of the second invasive region via a human‐mediated translocation event. In contrast, hydrodynamic modelling combined with eDNA plankton sampling demonstrated that the establishment of range expansion populations within a region is consistent with natural larval dispersal and recruitment. Our results suggest that both anthropogenic and natural dispersal vectors have played an important role in the range expansion of this species in Australia. The multiple modes of spread combined with high levels of fecundity and a long larval duration in A. amurensis suggests it is likely to continue its range expansion and significantly impact Australian marine ecosystems.     

Inhibition between invasives: a newly introduced predator moderates the impacts of a previously established invasive predator

1. With continued globalization, species are being transported and introduced into novel habitats at an accelerating rate. Interactions between invasive species may provide important mechanisms that moderate their impacts on native species. 2. The European green crab Carcinus maenas is an aggressive predator that was introduced to the east coast of North America in the mid-1800 s and is capable of rapid consumption of bivalve prey. A newer invasive predator, the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus, was first discovered on the Atlantic coast in the 1980s, and now inhabits many of the same regions as C. maenas within the Gulf of Maine. Using a series of field and laboratory investigations, we examined the consequences of interactions between these predators. 3. Density patterns of these two species at different spatial scales are consistent with negative interactions. As a result of these interactions, C. maenas alters its diet to consume fewer mussels, its preferred prey, in the presence of H. sanguineus. Decreased mussel consumption in turn leads to lower growth rates for C. maenas, with potential detrimental effects on C. maenas populations. 4. Rather than an invasional meltdown, this study demonstrates that, within the Gulf of Maine, this new invasive predator can moderate the impacts of the older invasive predator.     

Exploring larval phenology as predictor for range expansion in an invasive species

Predicting range expansion of invasive species is one of the key challenges in ecology. We modelled the phenological window for successful larval release and development (WLR) in order to predict poleward expansion of the invasive crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus along the Atlantic coast of North America and north Europe. WLR quantifies the number of opportunities (in days) when larval release leads to a successful completion of the larval phase; WLR depends on the effects of temperature on the duration of larval development and survival. Successful larval development is a necessary requirement for the establishment of self-persistent local populations. WLR was computed from a mechanistic model, based on in situ temperature time series and a laboratory–calibrated curve predicting duration of larval development from temperature. As a validation step, we checked that model predictions of the time of larval settlement matched observations from the field for our local population (Helgoland, North Sea). We then applied our model to the North American shores because larvae from our European population showed, in the laboratory, similar responses to temperature to those of a North American population. WLR correctly predicted the northern distribution limit in North American shores, where the poleward expansion of H. sanguineus appear to have stalled (as of 2015). For north Europe, where H. sanguineus is a recent invader, WLR predicted ample room for poleward expansion towards NE England and S Norway. We also explored the importance of year-to-year variation in temperature for WLR and potential expansion: variations in WLR highlighted the role of heat waves as likely promoters of recruitment subsidising sink populations located at the distribution limits. Overall, phenological windows may be used as a part of a warning system enabling more targeted programs for monitoring.     

Assessing population increase as a possible outcome to management of invasive species

Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when reduced intraspecific pressures increase juvenile survival or maturation rates, leading to increased population size. Overcompensation in response to eradication efforts could derail management efforts, so it would be beneficial to evaluate the likelihood of overcompensation prior to removal. We conducted a series of experiments to examine the potential for overcompensation of a non-native population of the European green crab, Carcinus maenas, which was being removed in Bodega Harbor, California. First, we examined the impact of adults on juvenile survival by measuring adult cannibalism on juveniles in the presence and absence of alternative prey, and the survival of tethered juveniles at varying adult densities. Second, we examined how adult presence affected juvenile short-term foraging and growth rates. Although adult presence reduced juvenile short-term foraging, we detected only minimal cannibalism and found no evidence that adults greatly reduce juvenile growth or survivorship. These results suggest that overcompensation is not likely to occur in this population in response to removal. We assessed this prediction using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with our conclusion from the experiments. This experimental approach which focuses on an organism’s population biology provides a tool to assess capacity for assessing the capacity for overcompensation in management strategies for invasive species.     

The infinitesimal, the deterministic, and the probabilistic: Alternate container inspection policies in invasive species management

Recently, Batabyal and Nijkamp (2005, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 19: 340–347) have shown that in an inspection cycle, regardless of whether the inspection policy choice is made on the basis of an optimization exercise or on the basis of a rule of thumb, the “container policy” dominates the “temporal policy” because the former results in lower long run expected net cost (LRENC) from inspections. In this paper, we continue this line of inquiry and analyze container policies in three scenarios. In the first scenario the time taken to conduct inspections is negligible. In the second scenario, this inspection time is deterministic and in the third scenario this inspection time is stochastic. Specifically, we compare and contrast the LRENC and the optimal container policy in each of these three scenarios.      

A rapid technique for assessing the suitability of areas for invasive species applied to New Zealand's rivers

Early responses to incursions of non‐indigenous species (NIS) into new areas include modelling and surveillance to define the organisms’ potential and actual distributions. For well‐studied invasive species, predictive models can be developed based on quantitative data describing environmental tolerances. In late 2004, an invasive freshwater diatom Didymosphenia geminata, an NIS for which we had no such quantitative data, was detected in a New Zealand river. We describe a procedure used to rapidly develop a classification of suitability for all New Zealand's rivers, based on two sources of information. First, from a review of the limited available literature and unpublished data, we determined that temperature, hydrological and substrate stability, light availability, and water pH were the most important environmental gradients determining D. geminata's broad‐scale distribution and capacity for establishing and forming blooms in rivers. The second information source was a GIS‐based river network developed for a national classification of New Zealand's rivers, with associated data describing environmental characteristics of each section of the network. We used six variables that were available for every section of the network as surrogates for the environmental gradients that determine suitability. We then determined the environmental distance of all the river sections in the network from our assessment of the optimal conditions conducive to D. geminata blooms. The analysis suggested that > 70% of New Zealand's river sections (stream order > 3) fell into the two highest suitability categories (on a five‐point scale). At the time of writing, D. geminata had spread to 12 catchments, all of which were within these two categories. The technique is applicable in initial responses to incursions of NIS where quantitative information is limited, and makes optimal use of available qualitative information. Our assessment contributed to evaluations of the potential ecological, social, and economic impacts of D. geminata and is currently being used to stratify site selection for ongoing surveillance.     

Modeling the spread of invasive species using dynamic network models

Spread dynamics of biological invasions are influenced by both the availability and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat. As such, invasive spread can be considered to occur across a network of nodes, representing patches of suitable habitat, with linkages representing the potential for movement between habitat patches. While static network models can provide valuable insight into the potential framework of nodes and linkages across which spread could occur, they offer little information on the actual spatiotemporal dynamics of range expansion processes. Here, we explore the development and application of dynamic network models (DNMs) to model the spread of invasive species. DNMs accommodate temporal dynamics in the utilization of nodes and the connections between them and can flexibly perform simulations at the spatial scales of observational data. As case studies, we develop DNMs to simulate the spread of a generalist forest pathogen and the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand). We highlight the utility of DNMs for identifying habitat patches that contribute most to spread across the landscape and for visualizing emergent spread dynamics. While currently underutilized in ecology as compared to static network models, DNMs are potentially applicable to numerous research and management questions relevant to biological invasions and the more general phenomena of range expansion.     

Modeling future range expansion and management strategies for an invasive squirrel species

Successful management of an invasive species requires in depth knowledge of the invader, the invaded ecosystem, and their interactions. The complexity of the species-system interactions can be reduced and represented in ecological models for better comprehension. In this study, a spatially explicit population model was created using the RAMAS software package to simulate the past and future invasion dynamics of the eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in the fragmented habitat in case study areas in Ireland. This invasive squirrel species causes economic damage by bark stripping forest crops and is associated with the decline of its native congener (S. vulgaris). Three combinations of demographic and dispersal parameters, which best matched the distribution of the species shortly after introduction, were used to simulate invasion dynamics. Future population expansion was modeled under scenarios of no control and two different management strategies: fatal culls and immunocontraceptive vaccination programmes. In the absence of control, the grey squirrel range is predicted to expand to the south and southwest of Ireland endangering internationally important habitats, vulnerable forest crops, and the native red squirrel. The model revealed that region-wide intensive and coordinated culls would have the greatest impact on grey squirrel populations. Control strategies consisting solely of immunocontraceptive vaccines, often preferred by public interest groups, are predicted to be less effective. Complete eradication of the grey squirrel from Ireland is not economically feasible and strategic evidence-based management is required to limit further range expansion. Ecological models can be used to choose between informed management strategies based on predicted outcomes.