Why apply ecological laws to epidemiology?

Using ecological laws, or rules, is a useful strategy for epidemiological observations. The application of Taylor's power law to epidemiology and evolutionary ecology of parasites is exemplified here. Taylor's power law takes the form of s2=amb, where s2 is the variance in population abundance, m is the mean abundance of the population, a represents a constant parameter and b represents an index of spatial heterogeneity. Although Taylor's power law reflects the aggregation of parasite (or pathogen) individuals among host population, the values of b could reflect regulation processes in host-parasite systems. Illustrations are given showing how b value is linked to various epidemiological situations: pathogen emergence, the impact of vaccination or the level of host immune defence.     

Bacterial genomes in epidemiology—present and future

Sequence data are well established in the reconstruction of the phylogenetic and demographic scenarios that have given rise to outbreaks of viral pathogens. The application of similar methods to bacteria has been hindered in the main by the lack of high-resolution nucleotide sequence data from quality samples. Developing and already available genomic methods have greatly increased the amount of data that can be used to characterize an isolate and its relationship to others. However, differences in sequencing platforms and data analysis mean that these enhanced data come with a cost in terms of portability: results from one laboratory may not be directly comparable with those from another. Moreover, genomic data for many bacteria bear the mark of a history including extensive recombination, which has the potential to greatly confound phylogenetic and coalescent analyses. Here, we discuss the exacting requirements of genomic epidemiology, and means by which the distorting signal of recombination can be minimized to permit the leverage of growing datasets of genomic data from bacterial pathogens.     

Can there be a "cultural epidemiology"?

A brief excursion through the history of social medicine suggests that, at least in principle, epidemiology and anthropology are natural allies in the study of disease in human populations. In practice, however, this alliance has been limited and remains problematic. This article examines the possibilities for interdisciplinary research, taking cancer epidemiology as a case in point. I argue, on the basis of participant-observation over a period of nearly two years in the epidemiology department of a medical research institute in Catalonia (Spain), that bioscientific uses of the concept of culture have led, disappointingly, to its reification as "beliefs" and its incorporation into the naturalist epistemology of Western institutional medicine. The unfortunate consequence is the medicalization of culture understood as "difference," which often stands in for social class.     

Theriogenology and developments in epidemiology: future opportunities?

The concepts and methods of the different branches of epidemiology, particularly clinical epidemiology, have much to offer the discipline of theriogenology. As with theriogenology, epidemiologic methods evolve when technological innovation enables new approaches to old problems. The recent emergence, from clinical epidemiology, of the evidence-based medicine paradigm in human medicine, and the associated developments of systematic reviews and meta-analysis, present new opportunities for collaboration and synergy between the two disciplines.     

Molecular epidemiology: new rules for new tools?

Molecular epidemiology combines biological markers and epidemiological observations in the study of the environmental and genetic determinants of cancer and other diseases. The potential advantages associated with biomarkers are manifold and include: (a) increased sensitivity and specificity to carcinogenic exposures; (b) more precise evaluation of the interplay between genetic and environmental determinants of cancer; (c) earlier detection of carcinogenic effects of exposure; (d) characterization of disease subtypes-etiologies patterns; (e) evaluation of primary prevention measures. These, in turn, may translate into better tools for etiologic research, individual risk assessment, and, ultimately, primary and secondary prevention. An area that has not received sufficient attention concerns the validation of these biomarkers as surrogate endpoints for cancer risk. Validation of a candidate biomarker's surrogacy is the demonstration that it possesses the properties required for its use as a substitute for a true endpoint. The principles underlying the validation process underwent remarkable developments and discussion in therapeutic research. However, the challenges posed by the application of these principles to epidemiological research, where the basic tool for this validation (i.e., the randomized study) is seldom possible, have not been thoroughly explored. The validation process of surrogacy must be applied rigorously to intermediate biomarkers of cancer risk before using them as risk predictors at the individual as well as at the population level.     

Tinea cruris epidemiology (São Paulo,Brazil)

In order to determine the epidemiology of tinea cruris in São Paulo, Brazil, an investigation was carried out from April 95 to March 1997. A total of 2000 individuals were studied, of whom 105 were suspected of having tinea cruris infection. Direct microscopy and/or culture were positive in 66 [62.8%] of the cases. Erythematous-scale plaques and erythematous-liquenificated plaques were the most frequently found clinicaltypes. T. rubrum was the prevalent dermatophyte in 90% of the cases, followed by T. tonsurans (6%) and T. mentagrophytes (4%).     

Stochastic environmental fluctuations drive epidemiology in experimental host–parasite metapopulations

Environmental fluctuations are important for parasite spread and persistence. However, the effects of the spatial and temporal structure of environmental fluctuations on host–parasite dynamics are not well understood. Temporal fluctuations can be random but positively autocorrelated, such that the environment is similar to the recent past (red noise), or random and uncorrelated with the past (white noise). We imposed red or white temporal temperature fluctuations on experimental metapopulations of Paramecium caudatum, experiencing an epidemic of the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Metapopulations (two subpopulations linked by migration) experienced fluctuations between stressful (5°C) and permissive (23°C) conditions following red or white temporal sequences. Spatial variation in temperature fluctuations was implemented by exposing subpopulations to the same (synchronous temperatures) or different (asynchronous temperatures) temporal sequences. Red noise, compared with white noise, enhanced parasite persistence. Despite this, red noise coupled with asynchronous temperatures allowed infected host populations to maintain sizes equivalent to uninfected populations. It is likely that this occurs because subpopulations in permissive conditions rescue declining subpopulations in stressful conditions. We show how patterns of temporal and spatial environmental fluctuations can impact parasite spread and host population abundance. We conclude that accurate prediction of parasite epidemics may require realistic models of environmental noise.     

Molecular epidemiology of ��-thalassemia in Pakistan: Far reaching implications

BACKGROUND:

β -Thalassaemia, an autosomal recessive hemoglobinopathy, is one of the commonest genetically transmitted disorders throughout the world. Collective measures including carrier identification, genetic counseling and prenatal diagnosis are required for preventing β-thalassemia.

Aim:

To achieve this objective, Identification of the spectrum of genetic mutations, especially for various ethnic backgrounds in Pakistan. Therefore, we designed a cross sectional prospective study to identify the frequency of various gene mutations in different ethnic groups of Pakistan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

Over a 5-year period, DNA from 648 blood samples {including specimens of chorionic villus sampling (CVS)} were analyzed for the twelve most common β-thalassemia mutations found in the Pakistani population by a Multiplex amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS). Each sample was analyzed for the mutation as well as the normal gene, appropriate with negative and positive controls, and reagent blanks.

RESULTS:

Out of 648 samples mutations were identified in 640 (98.75%) samples by multiplex ARMS. 8 common β-thalassemia mutations were identified in 8 different ethnic groups accounting for 93.9% of the β-thalasemia alleles.

CONCLUSIONS:

Based on the outcome of this study a cost effective proposal is formulated for detection of β-thalassemia mutations.     

What can epidemiology tell us about risks at low doses?

Puskin, J. S. What Can Epidemiology Tell Us about Risks at Low Doses? Radiat. Res. 169, 122-124 (2008). Limitations on statistical power preclude direct detection and quantification of radiogenic cancer risks at very low (environmental) levels of low-LET radiation through epidemiological studies. Given this limitation and our incomplete understanding of cellular processes leading to radiation carcinogenesis, an "effective threshold" in the dose range of interest for radiation protection cannot yet be ruled out. Ongoing epidemiological studies of chronically exposed individuals receiving very low daily doses of radiation can be used, however, together with radiobiological data, to critically test whether such a threshold is plausible.     

Does malaria epidemiology project Cameroon as ‘Africa in miniature’?

Cameroon, a west-central African country with a ~20 million population, is commonly regarded as ‘Africa in miniature’ due to the extensive biological and cultural diversities of whole Africa being present in a single-country setting. This country is inhabited by ancestral human lineages in unique eco-climatic conditions and diverse topography. Over 90% Cameroonians are at risk of malaria infection, and ~41% have at least one episode of malaria each year. Historically, the rate of malaria infection in Cameroon has fluctuated over the years; the number of cases was about 2 million in 2010 and 2011. The Cameroonian malaria control programme faces an uphill task due to high prevalence of multidrug-resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant malaria vectors. Above all, continued human migration from the rural to urban areas as well as population exchange with adjoining countries, high rate of ecological instabilities caused by deforestation, poor housing, lack of proper sanitation and drainage system might have resulted in the recent increase in incidences of malaria and other vector-borne diseases in Cameroon. The available data on eco-environmental variability and intricate malaria epidemiology in Cameroon reflect the situation in the whole of Africa, and warrant the need for in-depth study by using modern surveillance tools for meaningful basic understanding of the malaria triangle (host-parasite-vector-environment).     

The epidemiology of shigellosis (bacillary dysentery) on Curaçao

Summary In the island of Curaçao Shigellosis is the most common notifiable contagious disease.The causative agents areSh. paradysenteriae, Sh. sonnei andSh. ambigua.After rainfall epidemic outbreaks may be expected.     

Detail in network models of epidemiology: are we there yet?

Network models of infectious disease epidemiology can potentially provide insight into how to tailor control strategies for specific regions, but only if the network adequately reflects the structure of the region's contact network. Typically, the network is produced by models that incorporate details about human interactions. Each detail added renders the models more complicated and more difficult to calibrate, but also more faithful to the actual contact network structure. We propose a statistical test to determine when sufficient detail has been added to the models and demonstrate its application to the models used to create a synthetic population and contact network for the USA.     

Genetic epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis: what to expect from Latin America?

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic and systemic autoimmune disease characterized by inflammation and destruction of the synovial joints. It affects approximately 0.5% of the Latin-American population and is three times more common in women than in men. Evidence of familial aggregation (lambdas=2-17) was the first indication of a genetic susceptibility to disease. As in other autoimmune diseases, it has a complex genetic basis. Results from whole-genome scans indicate that the HLA region contains a significant and consistent set of linked loci. However, HLA accounts for only one-third of the genetic susceptibility of disease, indicating that non-HLA genes are also involved in the disease susceptibility. In Latin-America, association with HLA-DRB1*0404 and TNF -308A alleles has been uniformly established; however, many other candidate genes remain to be studied. The identification of genetic factors conferring susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis will contribute to the knowledge of the pathogenic mechanisms, ability to predict its occurrence, the development of diagnostic tools, prognosis, and treatment. The genetic epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis is herein reviewed; a set of recommendations is provided for the design, analysis and interpretation of genetic association studies in the context of Latin-American populations.     

How can the complex epidemiology of malaria in India impact its elimination?

Malaria is a human health hazard in the tropical and subtropical zones of the globe and is poised to be eliminated by the year 2030. Despite a decrease in incidence in the past two decades, many endemic countries, including India, report cases regularly. The epidemiology of malaria in India is unique owing to several features of the Plasmodium parasites, Anopheles vectors, ecoepidemiological situations conducive to disease transmission, and susceptible humans living in rural and forested areas. Limitations in public health reach, and poor health-seeking behaviour of vulnerable populations living in hard-to-reach areas, add to the problem. We bring all of these factors together in a comprehensive framework and opine that, in spite of complexities, targeted elimination of malaria in India is achievable with planned programmatic approaches.     

Descriptive epidemiology of cancer of unknown primary in South Korea, 1999–2017

BackgroundCancers of unknown primary (CUPs) are tumors found after metastasizing from unidentified primary sites; these tumors generally have unknown treatment strategies, expected treatment results, and prognosis. We assessed the epidemiological characteristics of CUPs in Korea.MethodsWe extracted records for 1999 through 2017 from the Korea Central Cancer Registry using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (10th revision) codes for CUP as defined by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Age-standardized rates and relative survival rates were calculated.ResultsThe CUPs constituted 2.1 % of the total number of cancer registrations in 1999, declining to 0.7 % in 2017. The incidence rate decreased for both sexes (5.35 to 2.20 for men, 3.15 to 1.77 for women). Patients aged 80 years and older had the highest incidence rate at 40.2, and 86.3 % of CUPs occurred in those 50 years of age or older. The cases of retroperitoneum and peritoneum sites increased over time. Cases diagnosed by microscopic methods and death certification only were 62.3 % and 7.9 %, respectively. The malignant neoplasm of the retroperitoneum and peritoneum and unknown primary site had the highest and lowest survival rates, respectively. The 5-year relative survival rate increased over time from 14.2 % (1999–2002) to 27.3 % (2013–2017).ConclusionsOur analysis of data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry found decreasing rates of CUP, although with consistent disparities by patient age and sex. Advancements in diagnostic technology may be decreasing the number of CUP diagnoses. Expanding the amount of information recorded in the registry may further improve diagnostic accuracy.     

Dissecting the epidemiology of a trinucleotide repeat disease – example of FRDA in Finland

Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is associated with the expansion of a GAA trinucleotide repeat in the first intron of the frataxin (X25) gene. Worldwide it is considered to be the most common form of hereditary ataxia, but it is infrequently encountered in Finland. We have performed the first epidemiological study on the frequency of FRDA in Finland by combining results from a nationwide clinical survey and a molecular carrier testing study. Haplotype analysis was performed for the Finnish FRDA patients and the distribution of frataxin gene GAA repeats was analyzed in controls. In the general population of Finland, the carrier frequency was only 1 in 500, corresponding to a birth incidence of 1 in 10(6). In the more sparsely populated Northern Finland the carrier frequency was five times higher and also four out of the seven Finnish FRDA patients originated from this region. Haplotype analysis revealed the major universal risk haplotype in all the investigated patients. Alleles in the uppermost end of the normal variation (28-36 GAA) were totally missing in the Finnish population. The relative enrichment of the FRDA mutation in the north probably dates back to the internal migration movement and inhabitation of northern Finland in the 1500s. Breaking down the epidemiology of FRDA into clinical and molecular components brings along the possibility of providing more reliable and population-based genetic counseling and recurrence risk estimations.     

Mortality trajectory analysis reveals the drivers of sex-specific epidemiology in natural wildlife–disease interactions

In animal populations, males are commonly more susceptible to disease-induced mortality than females. However, three competing mechanisms can cause this sex bias: weak males may simultaneously be more prone to exposure to infection and mortality; being ‘male’ may be an imperfect proxy for the underlying driver of disease-induced mortality; or males may experience increased severity of disease-induced effects compared with females. Here, we infer the drivers of sex-specific epidemiology by decomposing fixed mortality rates into mortality trajectories and comparing their parameters. We applied Bayesian survival trajectory analysis to a 22-year longitudinal study of a population of badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB). At the point of infection, infected male and female badgers had equal mortality risk, refuting the hypothesis that acquisition of infection occurs in males with coincidentally high mortality. Males and females exhibited similar levels of heterogeneity in mortality risk, refuting the hypothesis that maleness is only a proxy for disease susceptibility. Instead, sex differences were caused by a more rapid increase in male mortality rates following infection. Males are indeed more susceptible to bTB, probably due to immunological differences between the sexes. We recommend this mortality trajectory approach for the study of infection in animal populations.     

Interpreting the epidemiology and natural history of bacterial vaginosis: are we still confused?

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a common cause of vaginitis and increases women's risk of pelvic inflammatory disease, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and risk of STD/HIV acquisition. The etiology of BV is unclear, though it is believed to involve loss of vaginal hydrogen peroxide-producing lactobacilli and acquisition of complex bacterial communities that include many fastidious BV-associated bacteria (BVAB) that have recently been detected using PCR methods. Treatment failure (persistence) is common, and may be facilitated by unprotected sex. Potential contributions to BV and BV persistence include (1) sexual partners as a reservoir for BVAB; (2) specific sexual practices, including male partners' condom use; and (3) the composition of the vaginal microbiota involved in BV. Specific BVAB in the Clostridiales order may predict BV persistence when detected pre-treatment, and have been detected in men whose female partners have BV. BVAB may be associated with unprotected sexual behavior and failure of BV to resolve in women, supporting the hypothesis that BVAB colonization of male genitalia may serve as a reservoir for re-infection of female partners. Moreover, specific sexual practices may favor vaginal colonization with certain BVAB that have been associated with persistence. This review provides background on BV, and discusses the epidemiologic and microbiologic data to support a role for acquisition of BVAB and how this process might differ among subsets of women.