There Is No Need To Be Normal: Generalized Linear Models of Natural Variation

Both ecological field studies and attempts to extrapolate from laboratory experiments to natural populations generally encounter the high degree of natural variability and chaotic behavior that typify natural ecosystems. Regardless of this variability and non-normal distribution, most statistical models of natural systems use normal error which assumes independence between the variance and mean. However, environmental data are often random or clustered and are better described by probability distributions which have more realistic variance to mean relationships. Until recently statistical software packages modeled only with normal error and researchers had to assume approximate normality on the original or transformed scale of measurement and had to live with the consequences of often incorrectly assuming independence between the variance and mean. Recent developments in statistical software allow researchers to use generalized linear models (GLMs) and analysis can now proceed with probability distributions from the exponential family which more realistically describe natural conditions: binomial (even distribution with variance less than mean), Poisson (random distribution with variance equal mean), negative binomial (clustered distribution with variance greater than mean). GLMs fit parameters on the original scale of measurement and eliminate the need for obfuscating transformations, reduce bias for proportions with unequal sample size, and provide realistic estimates of variance which can increase power of tests. Because GLMs permit modeling according to the non-normal behavior of natural systems and obviate the need for normality assumptions, they will likely become a widely used tool for analyzing toxicity data. To demonstrate the broad-scale utility of GLMs, we present several examples where the use of GLMs improved the statistical power of field and laboratory studies to document the rapid ecological recovery of Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill.     

Current Demographics Suggest Future Energy Supplies Will Be Inadequate to Slow Human Population Growth

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9–10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.     

The Charlson Comorbidity Index Can Be Used Prospectively to Identify Patients Who Will Incur High Future Costs

Background

Reducing health care costs requires the ability to identify patients most likely to incur high costs. Our objective was to evaluate the ability of the Charlson comorbidity score to predict the individuals who would incur high costs in the subsequent year and to contrast its predictive ability with other commonly used predictors.

Methods

We contrasted the prior year Charlson comorbidity index, costs, Diagnostic Cost Group (DCG) and hospitalization as predictors of subsequent year costs from claims data of fund that provides comprehensive health benefits to a large union of health care workers. Total costs in the subsequent year was the principal outcome.

Results

Of the 181,764 predominantly Black and Latino beneficiaries, 70% were adults (mean age 45.7 years; 62% women). As the comorbidity index increased, total yearly costs increased significantly (P<.001). At lower comorbidity, the costs were similar across different chronic diseases. Using regression to predict total costs, top 5^th and 10^th percentile of costs, the comorbidity index, prior costs and DCG achieved almost identical explained variance in both adults and children.

Conclusions and Relevance

The comorbidity index predicted health costs in the subsequent year, performing as well as prior cost and DCG in identifying those in the top 5% or 10%. The comorbidity index can be used prospectively to identify patients who are likely to incur high costs.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01761253","term_id":"NCT01761253"}}NCT01761253     

Everyone Will Be Jealous For That Mutika

In this paper I describe a phenomenon I refer to by its Aboriginal English name — ‘humbugging’ — in a western Arnhem Land Aboriginal settlement. By discussing the focal object in this phenomenon — the ‘mutika’ (car)¹ — I argue that a most interesting process of de-commoditization is occurring in this settlement. I use examples of humbugging to illustrate how the car in this community has tremendous symbolic as well as practical significance. I use. in particular, the work of Douglas and Isherwood (1979) and Appadurai et al. (1986), and argue that their ‘social life of things’ theoretical framework is appropriate for interpreting the importance of the ‘mutika’. I also suggest, however, that this framework needs to be re-thought in order to incorporate the challenge which de-commoditization presents to it.     

In the Beginning,There Was Protein Phosphorylation

The importance of reversible protein phosphorylation to cellular regulation cannot be overstated. In eukaryotic cells, protein kinase/phosphatase signaling pathways regulate a staggering number of cellular processes, including cell proliferation, cell death (apoptosis, necroptosis, necrosis), metabolism (at both the cellular and organismal levels), behavior and neurological function, development, and pathogen resistance. Although protein phosphorylation as a mode of eukaryotic cell regulation is familiar to most biochemists, many are less familiar with protein kinase/phosphatase signaling networks that function in prokaryotes. In this thematic minireview series, we present four minireviews that cover the important field of prokaryotic protein phosphorylation.     

Threat Diversity Will Erode Mammalian Phylogenetic Diversity in the Near Future

To reduce the accelerating rate of phylogenetic diversity loss, many studies have searched for mechanisms that could explain why certain species are at risk, whereas others are not. In particular, it has been demonstrated that species might be affected by both extrinsic threat factors as well as intrinsic biological traits that could render a species more sensitive to extinction; here, we focus on extrinsic factors. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature developed a new classification of threat types, including climate change, urbanization, pollution, agriculture and aquaculture, and harvesting/hunting. We have used this new classification to analyze two main factors that could explain the expected future loss of mammalian phylogenetic diversity: 1. differences in the type of threats that affect mammals and 2. differences in the number of major threats that accumulate for a single species. Our results showed that Cetartiodactyla, Diprotodontia, Monotremata, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea could lose a high proportion of their current phylogenetic diversity in the coming decades. In contrast, Chiroptera, Didelphimorphia, and Rodentia could lose less phylogenetic diversity than expected if extinctions were random. Some mammalian clades, including Marsupiala, Chiroptera, and a subclade of Primates, are affected by particular threat types, most likely due solely to their geographic locations and associations with particular habitats. However, regardless of the geography, habitat, and taxon considered, it is not the threat type, but the threat diversity that determines the extinction risk for species and clades. Thus, some mammals might be randomly located in areas subjected to a large diversity of threats; they might also accumulate detrimental traits that render them sensitive to different threats, which is a characteristic that could be associated with large body size. Any action reducing threat diversity is expected to have a significant impact on future mammalian phylogeny.     

Rising Midlife Obesity Will Worsen Future Prevalence of Dementia

Background

Midlife body weight status has been found to affect late life dementia outcomes. A cohort projections model was developed to assess the impact of midlife body mass index (BMI) profile on dementia in older Australians.

Methods

A baseline projection using age-sex specific dementia prevalence rates was constructed and the results of scenarios that took account of midlife BMI were compared with those from population ageing only.

Results

This modelling predicts that if the rising trend in midlife obesity and declining trend in midlife normal weight in Australia are to be taken into account in projecting future numbers of Australians with dementia then the number of people aged 65 or more years with dementia, by 2050, would be 14% higher than that expected from demographic ageing only. If midlife obesity prevalence was decreased to 20% and normal weight increased to 40% over the period of 2015–2025, then dementia cases among persons aged 65–69 years would be lower by about 10% in 2050 compared with the “doing nothing to stop current trends in obesity” projection.

Conclusion

The rising tide of obesity in Australian adults will increase the dementia epidemic expected in future years.     

Plant Genome Complexity May Be a Factor Limiting In Situ the Transfer of Transgenic Plant Genes to the Phytopathogen Ralstonia solanacearum

The development of natural competence by bacteria in situ is considered one of the main factors limiting transformation-mediated gene exchanges in the environment. Ralstonia solanacearum is a plant pathogen that is also a naturally transformable bacterium that can develop the competence state during infection of its host. We have attempted to determine whether this bacterium could become the recipient of plant genes. We initially demonstrated that plant DNA was released close to the infecting bacteria. We constructed and tested various combinations of transgenic plants and recipient bacteria to show that the effectiveness of such transfers was directly related to the ratio of the complexity of the plant genome to the number of copies of the transgene.     

There is No Somatic Meiosis in Embryogenic Leaves of Cichorium

Several papers dealing with carrot cell cultures describe meiosis-likedivisions and haploid cells prior to somatic embryogenesis.We have studied the first division in embryogenic mesophyllcells of a diploidCichorium intybus L. and of a tetraploid hybridC.intybus L.xC. endivia L. which undergo direct somatic embryogenesisfrom single cells when leaf fragments are placed in a liquidagitated inductive medium (modified MS with 1x10^-7M NAA and2.5x10^-6M 2-iP), in darkness, at 35°C. MicrosporogenesisinC. intybus provided aspects of meiosis for comparison. Inleaves incubated in inductive conditions, DAPI staining of nucleishowed normal mitosis on days 3–6; about 0.6% cells inprophase had undergone spontaneous endoreduplication leadingto a tetraploid somatic embryo. Immunocytochemistry of tubulinrevealed the constant presence of a preprophase band, as ina normal mitosis. The first pluricellular somatic embryos becamevisible on day 5 of culture. Flow cytometric determination ofnuclear DNA on days 4, 5 and 6 did not show any peak correspondingto the 1C DNA level for the diploid plant or to the 2C DNA levelfor the tetraploid. Instead there was a weak but constant peakat the 4C and 8C levels. We conclude that inCichorium leaves,the first division of somatic embryogenesis is a normal mitosis,with a small shift to endoreduplication. In our opinion, somaticmeiosis is not a prerequisite during direct somatic embryogenesis. Cichorium ; chicory; somatic embryogenesis; cell division; flow cytometry; tubulin     

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature.     

How the Electronic Health Record Will Change the Future of Health Care

Genetic testing is expected to play a critical role in patient care in the near future. Advances in genomic research have the potential to impact medicine in very tangible and direct ways, from carrier screening to disease diagnosis and prognosis to targeted treatments and personalized medicine. However, numerous barriers to widespread adoption of genetic testing continue to exist, and health information technology will be a critical means of addressing these challenges. Electronic health records (EHRs) are a digital replacement for the traditional paper-based patient chart designed to improve the quality of patient care. EHRs have become increasingly essential to managing the wealth of existing clinical information that now includes genetic information extracted from the patient genome. The EHR is capable of changing health care in the future by transforming the way physicians use genomic information in the practice of medicine.     

阿尔泰山山前不存在连续的水平草原带

长期以来,在我国部分地植物学工作者中存在一种观念,认为我国的草原带分东西两段,东段从松辽平原开始,向西经内蒙古高原到黄土高原,面积辽阔,是我国草原的主要部分;西段分布于新疆阿尔泰山山前,面积较小,仅一狭带。直到最近,在建国三十年来植被研究的总结性巨著《中国植被》(1980)中,也将温带草原区域分为东部草原亚区域     

There Is No Joy like Malicious Joy: Schadenfreude in Young Children

Human emotions are strongly shaped by the tendency to compare the relative state of oneself to others. Although social comparison based emotions such as jealousy and schadenfreude (pleasure in the other misfortune) are important social emotions, little is known about their developmental origins. To examine if schadenfreude develops as a response to inequity aversion, we assessed the reactions of children to the termination of unequal and equal triadic situations. We demonstrate that children as early as 24 months show signs of schadenfreude following the termination of an unequal situation. Although both conditions involved the same amount of gains, the children displayed greater positive expressions following the disruption of the unequal as compared to the equal condition, indicating that inequity aversion can be observed earlier than reported before. These results support an early evolutionary origin of inequity aversion and indicate that schadenfreude has evolved as a response to unfairness.