Age Trajectories of Mortality from All Diseases in the Six Most Populated Countries of the South America During the Last Decades

Age trajectories of total mortality represent an irreplaceable source of information about aging. In principle, age affects mortality from all diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes. External causes (accidents) are excluded here from all causes, and the resultant category “all-diseases” is tested as a helpful tool to better understand the relationship between mortality and age. Age trajectories of all-diseases mortality are studied in the six most populated countries of the South America during 1996–2010. The numbers of deaths for specific causes of death are extracted from the database of WHO, where the ICD-10 revision is used. The all-diseases mortality shows a strong minimum, which is hidden in total mortality. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories of all-diseases mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fits the mortality decreases up to minimum value in all six countries. All previous models describing mortality decline after birth are discussed. Theoretical relationships are derived between the parameter in the first model and standard mortality indicators: Infant mortality, Neonatal mortality, and Postneonatal mortality. The Gompertz model extended with a small positive quadratic element fit the age trajectories of all-diseases mortality after the age of 10 years.     

Age, growth, maturity, and mortality of the Alaska skate, Bathyraja parmifera, in the eastern Bering Sea

The Alaska skate, Bathyraja parmifera, is the most abundant species of skate on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, accounting for over 90% of total skate biomass. However, little is known regarding the life history of this species despite its common occurrence as bycatch in several Bering Sea fisheries. This is the first study to focus on the age and growth of B. parmifera. From 2003 to 2005, more than one thousand specimens were collected by fisheries observers and on scientific groundfish surveys. Annual banding patterns in more than 500 thin sections of vertebral centra were examined for age determination. Caudal thorns were tested as a potentially non-lethal ageing structure. Annual band pair deposition was verified through edge and marginal increment analyses. A three-parameter von Bertalanffy growth function and a Gompertz growth function were fit to observed length-at-age data. Both models provided significant fits, although the Gompertz function best described the overall pattern of growth in both males and females, based upon statistical criteria and parameter estimates. Age and size at 50% maturity were 9 years and 92 cm TL for males and 10 years and 93 cm TL for females. The maximum observed ages for males and females were 15 years and 17 years, respectively. Estimates of natural mortality (M) ranged from 0.14 to 0.28, and were based on published relationships between M and longevity, age at maturity, and the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient. Due to these life history characteristics and a lack of long-term species-specific stock data, a conservative management approach would be appropriate for B. parmifera.     

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow,Russia

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality–temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to −10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13–30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3–1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.     

Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal

The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7–3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6–2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4–4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1–6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3–14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people?≥?75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7–5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4–5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6–6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1–13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3–18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.     

Age-specific mortality rates of reproducing and non-reproducing males of Drosophila melanogaster

The proximate and evolutionary causes of the levelling of mortality rates at late ages, observed in several species, remain obscure. To investigate the causes of mortality levelling late in life in Drosophila melanogaster, we examined the effect of reproduction on mortality patterns, by conducting population cage experiments with a total of more than 45,000 individuals. Several different genotypes of reproducing and non-reproducing males from F(1) crosses among isogenic lines were studied. Our results suggest that significant mortality levelling can occur even in non-reproducing males, but that reproduction also significantly affects mortality patterns. The results show that mortality levelling is strongly affected by the Gompertz initial mortality rate and exponential rate of increase parameters, probably through the effects of heterogeneity in mortality risks.     

Models for estimating empirical Gompertz mortality: With an application to evolution of the Gompertzian slope

Using data from the human mortality database (HMD), and five different modeling approaches, we estimate Gompertz mortality parameters for 7,704 life tables. To gauge model fit, we predict life expectancy at age 40 from these parameters, and compare predicted to empirical values. Across a diversity of human populations, and both sexes, the overall best way to estimate Gompertz parameters is weighted least squares, although Poisson regression performs better in 996 cases for males and 1,027 cases for females, out of 3,852 populations per sex. We recommend against using unweighted least squares unless death counts (to use as weights or to allow Poisson estimation) are unavailable. We also recommend fitting to logged death rates. Over time in human populations, the Gompertz slope parameter has increased, indicating a more severe increase in mortality rates as age goes up. However, it is well-known that the two parameters of the Gompertz model are very tightly (and negatively) correlated. When the slope goes up, the level goes down, and, overall, mortality rates are decreasing over time. An analysis of Gompertz parameters for all of the HMD countries shows a distinct pattern for males in the formerly socialist economies of Europe.     

Growth and mortality of larval Myctophum affine (Myctophidae,Teleostei)

The growth and mortality rates of Myctophum affine larvae were analysed based on samples collected during the austral summer and winter of 2002 from south‐eastern Brazilian waters. The larvae ranged in size from 2·75 to 14·00 mm standard length (L_S). Daily increment counts from 82 sagittal otoliths showed that the age of M. affine ranged from 2 to 28 days. Three models were applied to estimate the growth rate: linear regression, exponential model and Laird–Gompertz model. The exponential model best fitted the data, and L₀ values from exponential and Laird–Gompertz models were close to the smallest larva reported in the literature (c. 2·5 mm L_S). The average growth rate (0·33 mm day^?1) was intermediate among lanternfishes. The mortality rate (12%) during the larval period was below average compared with other marine fish species but similar to some epipelagic fishes that occur in the area.     

Life equations for the senescence process

The Gompertz law of mortality quantitatively describes the mortality rate of humans and almost all multicellular animals. However, its underlying kinetic mechanism is unclear. The Gompertz law cannot explain the mortality plateau at advanced ages and cannot give an explicit relationship between temperature and mortality. In this study a reaction kinetics model with a time dependent rate coefficient is proposed to describe the survival and senescence processes. A temperature-dependent mortality function was derived. The new mortality function becomes the Gompertz mortality function with the same relationship of parameters prescribed by the Strehler–Mildvan correlation when age is smaller than a characteristic value δ, and reaches the mortality plateau when age is greater than δ. A closed-form analytical expression for describing the relationship of average lifespan with temperature and other equations are derived from the new mortality function. The derived equations can be used to estimate the limit of average lifespan, predict the maximal longevity, calculate the temperature coefficient of lifespan, and explain the tendency of the survival curve. This prediction is consistent with the most recently reported mortality trajectories for single-year birth cohorts. This study suggests that the senescence process results from the imbalance between damaging energy and protecting energy for the critical chemical substance in the body. The rate of senescence of the organism increases while the protecting energy decreases. The mortality plateau is reached when the protecting energy decreases to its minimal levels. The decreasing rate of the protecting energy is temperature-dependent. This study is exploring the connection between the biochemical mechanism and demography.     

The age-related dynamics of mortality and the Gompertz-Makeham law

Using the statistics of mortality of Caucasian population of 48 states of the USA (1969-1971) it was demonstrated that the real age dynamics of human mortality may differ significantly both from the Gompertz law and from the Gompertz-Makeham law. Using of the Gompertz-Makeham formula leads to appearance of negative A value in 77 cases out of 96. This makes it difficult to interpret this parameter as a "background" component of mortality. Using of the Gompertz formula in different age groups leads uncoordinated changes in alpha and R0 values in every state. Hence, it is impossible to plot geographically stable characters for Gompertz parameters alpha for subsequent epidemiological analysis. The "aging rate", estimated by parameter is not stable throughout the life span of 30-92 years, but changes with certain pattern.     

Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality,and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’

In 1825, the actuary Benjamin Gompertz read a paper, ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’, to the Royal Society in which he showed that over much of the adult human lifespan, age-specific mortality rates increased in an exponential manner. Gompertz''s work played an important role in shaping the emerging statistical science that underpins the pricing of life insurance and annuities. Latterly, as the subject of ageing itself became the focus of scientific study, the Gompertz model provided a powerful stimulus to examine the patterns of death across the life course not only in humans but also in a wide range of other organisms. The idea that the Gompertz model might constitute a fundamental ‘law of mortality’ has given way to the recognition that other patterns exist, not only across the species range but also in advanced old age. Nevertheless, Gompertz''s way of representing the function expressive of the pattern of much of adult mortality retains considerable relevance for studying the factors that influence the intrinsic biology of ageing. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.     

Age‐specific mortality analysis of the dry forest kissing bug,Rhodnius neglectus

Age‐specific mortality patterns can be very different across insects with different life histories. Some holometabolous insects (like mosquitoes, fruit flies) show a pattern where mortality rate decelerates at older ages, whereas other holometabolous insects (bruchid beetles) and hemimetabolous insects (cotton stainers, milkweed bugs, and kissing bugs) show an age‐specific mortality pattern that increases through all ages. Kissing bugs are strictly hematophagous and are vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi Chagas, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease. Here, we tested whether cohort data from the dry forest kissing bug, Rhodnius neglectus Lent (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), supports an increase of mortality rate that decelerates with age. We analyzed the age‐specific mortality pattern of a cohort of 250 individuals of R. neglectus. We used a suite of seven models with different degrees of complexity, to model age‐dependent forms of change in mortality rate increase in R. neglectus in the laboratory. We used the Akaike model selection criterion to choose between models that consider absence or presence of mortality deceleration. Five of the seven models (logistic, Gavrilovs, Gompertz, DeMoivre, and exponential) showed a statistically significant fit to the mortality rate. Weak late‐age mortality deceleration in R. neglectus was supported by the best fit (logistic model), and this result is consistent with predictions of the disposable soma theory of senescence.     

Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models

The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ≥10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value = 3.85 × 10^?6). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value  ? 10^?12), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential.     

External gamma radiation and mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the German WISMUT uranium miners cohort study, 1946–2008

It is currently unclear whether exposure of the heart and vascular system, at lifetime accumulated dose levels relevant to the general public (<500 mGy), is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, data from the German WISMUT cohort of uranium miners were investigated for evidence of a relationship between external gamma radiation and death from cardiovascular diseases. The cohort comprises 58,982 former employees of the Wismut company. There were 9,039 recorded deaths from cardiovascular diseases during the follow-up period from 1946 to 2008. Exposures to external gamma radiation were estimated using a detailed job-exposure matrix. The exposures were based on expert ratings for the period 1946–1954 and measurements thereafter. The excess relative risk (ERR) per unit of cumulative gamma dose was obtained with internal Poisson regression using a linear ERR model with baseline stratification by age and calendar year. The mean cumulative gamma dose was 47 mSv for exposed miners (86 %), with a maximum of 909 mSv. No evidence for an increase in risk with increasing cumulative dose was found for mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (ERR/Sv = ?0.13; 95 % confidence interval (CI): ?0.38; 0.12) and ischemic heart diseases (n = 4,613; ERR/Sv = ?0.03; 95 % CI: ?0.38, 0.32). However, a statistically insignificant increase (n = 2,073; ERR/Sv = 0.44; 95 % CI: ?0.16, 1.04) for mortality from cerebrovascular diseases was observed. Data on smoking, diabetes, and overweight are available for subgroups of the cohort, indicating no major correlation with cumulative gamma radiation. Confounding by these factors or other risk factors, however, cannot be excluded. In conclusion, the results provide weak evidence for an increased risk of death due to gamma radiation only for cerebrovascular diseases.     

Enhancement and modeling of microparticle-added <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhizopus oryzae</Emphasis> lactic acid production

Lactic acid has a wide industrial application area and can be produced by fungal strains. However, excessive bulk growth form of fungi during the fermentations is a major problem, which limits the fermentation performance. Microparticles are excellent tools to prevent bulk fungal growth and provide homogenized fermentation broth to increase uniformity and the prediction performance of the models. Therefore, in this study, addition of aluminum oxide and talcum microparticles into fermentations was evaluated to enhance the production of lactic acid by Rhizopus oryzae. The results showed that the bulk fungal growth was prevented and the lactic acid concentration increased from 6.02 to 13.88 and 24.01 g/L, when 15 g/L of aluminum oxide or 10 g/L of talcum was used, respectively, in the shake-flask fermentations. Additionally, substrate concentration, pH, and agitation were optimized in the bioreactors using response surface methodology, and optimum values were determined as 126 g/L of glucose, 6.22 pH, and 387 rpm, respectively. Under these conditions, lactic acid production further increased to 75.1 ± 1.5 g/L with 10 g/L of talcum addition. Also, lactic acid production and glucose consumption in the batch fermentation were successfully modeled with modified Gompertz model and modified logistic model. RMSE and MAE values for lactic acid production were calculated as 2.279 and 1.498 for the modified Gompertz model; 3.6 and 4.056 for the modified logistic model. Additionally, modified logistic model predicted glucose consumption with ?2.088 MAE and 2.868 RMSE, whereas these values were calculated as 2.035 and 3.946 for the modified Gompertz model.     

Chronic low-dose exposure in the Techa River Cohort: risk of mortality from circulatory diseases

The aim of the present study was to analyze the mortality from circulatory diseases for about 30,000 members of the Techa River cohort over the period 1950–2003, and to investigate how these rates depend on radiation doses. This population received both external and internal exposures from ⁹⁰Sr, ⁸⁹Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and other uranium fission products as a result of waterborne releases from the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The analysis included individualized estimates of the total (external plus internal) absorbed dose in muscle calculated based on the Techa River Dosimetry System 2009. The cohort-average dose to muscle tissue was 35 mGy, and the maximum dose was 510 mGy. Between 1950 and 2003, 7,595 deaths from circulatory diseases were registered among cohort members with 901,563 person years at risk. Mortality rates in the cohort were analyzed using a simple parametric excess relative risk (ERR) model. For all circulatory diseases, the estimated excess relative risk per 100 mGy with a 15-year lag period was 3.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.2–7.5 %, and for ischemic heart disease it was 5.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.1–11.9 %. A linear ERR model provided the best fit. Analyses with a lag period shorter than 15 years from the beginning of exposure did not reveal any significant risk of mortality from either all circulatory diseases or ischemic heart disease. There was no evidence of an increased mortality risk from cerebrovascular disease (p > 0.5). These results should be regarded as preliminary, since they will be updated after adjustment for smoking and alcohol consumption.     

First assessment of the population structure of the Asiatic wild ass in Mongolia

The Mongolian Gobi is the most important stronghold of the Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus), housing >?75% of the remaining global population. However, even in this remote refuge, poaching and changes in land use are challenging the species’ conservation. Whereas progress has been made in monitoring population size, little data are available on population structure and dynamics. To fill this gap, we determined the age and sex of 440 skulls collected in two regions of the Mongolian Gobi. Foals and yearlings were underrepresented in our skull sample with 3 and 7.3% only, but the rest of the age pyramid was well balanced. The mean age was 7.7 years, the maximum age 29 years, and the sex ratio was not different from even. Mortality risk analysis revealed low annual mortality rates of about 15% in the most productive age classes of 5–10 years, followed by a slow increase with age until about 17 years and a likely faster increase thereafter. As the large majority of carcasses suggested a poaching-related mortality which appears random, our dataset provides the first insight into the structure of the largest remaining Asiatic wild ass population and can be used as a benchmark for future monitoring and population viability modeling.     

A comparative analysis of senescence in adult damselflies and dragonflies (Odonata)

Any population whose members are subject to extrinsic mortality should exhibit an increase in mortality with age. Nevertheless, the prevailing opinion is that populations of adult damselflies and dragonflies do not exhibit such senescence. Here, we challenge this contention by fitting a range of demographic models to the data on which these earlier conclusions were based. We show that a model with an exponential increase in age-related mortality (Gompertz) generally provides a more parsimonious fit than alternative models including age-independent mortality, indicating that many odonates do indeed senesce. Controlling for phylogeny, a comparison of the daily mortality of 35 odonate species indicates that although male and female mortalities are positively correlated, mortality tends to be higher in males of those species that exhibit territoriality. Hence, we show for the first time that territoriality may impose a survivorship cost on males, once the underlying phylogenetic relationships are accounted for.     

Estimating the rate of increase for the finless porpoise with special attention to predictions for the Inland Sea population in Japan

The finless porpoise Neophocaena asiaeorientalis inhabits coastal waters and rivers in East Asia and is exposed to various human activities. This species is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to a reduction in abundance. Although human-induced mortality can be a threat to porpoise populations, future anthropogenic impacts have not been quantitatively evaluated due to lack of demographic information. Adequate future population projections are needed to form the basis for conservation measures before the population declines to critical levels. We conducted a population viability analysis for the population of finless porpoise in the Inland Sea, Japan using a Leslie matrix model composed of age-specific survival and fertility rates. We described the uncertainty in the annual rate of increase (λ) for the finless porpoise using randomly sampled estimates of survival rate for other cetaceans with similar life histories. Plausible median estimates of λ ranged from 1.041 (age at first reproduction [AFR] = 7) to 1.056 (AFR = 5). Future population changes and extinction probabilities were predicted after combining these estimates with a predicted human-induced mortality rate (M) and available abundance estimates. The extinction probability after 100 years was 0 %. However, the probability of the quasi-extinction (<100 individuals) was as high as 79.0 % after 100 years. The results also suggest that the persistence of the finless porpoise population could be achieved with a small effort to reduce anthropogenic mortality.     

Genetic determinants of mortality. Can findings from genome-wide association studies explain variation in human mortality?

Twin studies have estimated the heritability of longevity to be approximately 20–30 %. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed a large number of determinants of morbidity, but so far, no new polymorphisms have been discovered to be associated with longevity per se in GWAS. We aim to determine whether the genetic architecture of mortality can be explained by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with common traits and diseases related to mortality. By extensive quality control of published GWAS we created a genetic score from 707 common SNPs associated with 125 diseases or risk factors related with overall mortality. We prospectively studied the association of the genetic score with: (1) time-to-death; (2) incidence of the first of nine major diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, diabetes, dementia, lung, breast, colon and prostate cancers) in two population-based cohorts of Dutch and Swedish individuals (N = 15,039; age range 47–99 years). During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (max 22.2 years), we observed 4,318 deaths and 2,132 incident disease events. The genetic score was significantly associated with time-to-death [hazard ratio (HR) per added risk allele = 1.003, P value = 0.006; HR 4th vs. 1st quartile = 1.103]. The association between the genetic score and incidence of major diseases was stronger (HR per added risk allele = 1.004, P value = 0.002; HR 4th vs. 1st quartile = 1.160). Associations were stronger for individuals dying at older ages. Our findings are compatible with the view of mortality as a complex and highly polygenetic trait, not easily explainable by common genetic variants related to diseases and physiological traits.