The Potential of Medical Abortion to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Africa: What Benefits for Tanzania and Ethiopia?

Background

Unsafe abortion is estimated to account for 13% of maternal mortality globally. Medical abortion is a safe alternative.

Methods

By estimating mortality risks for unsafe and medical abortion and childbirth for Tanzania and Ethiopia, we modelled changes in maternal mortality that are achievable if unsafe abortion were replaced by medical abortion. We selected Ethiopia and Tanzania because of their high maternal mortality ratios (MMRatios) and contrasting situations regarding health care provision and abortion legislation. We focused on misoprostol-only regimens due to the drug''s low cost and accessibility. We included the impact of medical abortion on women who would otherwise choose unsafe abortion and on women with unwanted/mistimed pregnancies who would otherwise carry to term.

Results

Thousands of lives could be saved each year in each country by implementing medical abortion using misoprostol (2122 in Tanzania and 2551 in Ethiopia assuming coverage equals family planning services levels: 56% for Tanzania, 31% for Ethiopia). Changes in MMRatios would be less pronounced because the intervention would also affect national birth rates.

Conclusions

This is the first analysis of impact of medical abortion provision which takes into account additional potential users other than those currently using unsafe abortion. Thousands of women''s lives could be saved, but this may not be reflected in as substantial changes in MMRatios because of medical abortion''s demographic impact. Therefore policy makers must be aware of the inability of some traditional measures of maternal mortality to detect the real benefits offered by such an intervention.     

Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing Referral Strategies among Tuberculosis Patients in India

Background

Indian guidelines recommend routine referral for HIV testing of all tuberculosis (TB) patients in the nine states with the highest HIV prevalence, and selective referral for testing elsewhere. We assessed the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV testing referral strategies among TB patients in India.

Methods and Findings

We utilized a computer model of HIV and TB disease to project outcomes for patients with active TB in India. We compared life expectancy, cost, and cost-effectiveness for three HIV testing referral strategies: 1) selective referral for HIV testing of those with increased HIV risk, 2) routine referral of patients in the nine highest HIV prevalence states with selective referral elsewhere (current standard), and 3) routine referral of all patients for HIV testing. TB-related data were from the World Health Organization. HIV prevalence among TB patients was 9.0% in the highest prevalence states, 2.9% in the other states, and 4.9% overall. The selective referral strategy, beginning from age 33.50 years, had a projected discounted life expectancy of 16.88 years and a mean lifetime HIV/TB treatment cost of US$100. The current standard increased mean life expectancy to 16.90 years with additional per-person cost of US$10; the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$650/year of life saved (YLS) compared to selective referral. Routine referral of all patients for HIV testing increased life expectancy to 16.91 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$730/YLS compared to the current standard. For HIV-infected patients cured of TB, receiving antiretroviral therapy increased survival from 4.71 to 13.87 years. Results were most sensitive to the HIV prevalence and the cost of second-line antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions

Referral of all patients with active TB in India for HIV testing will be both effective and cost-effective. While effective implementation of this strategy would require investment, routine, voluntary HIV testing of TB patients in India should be recommended.     

Scaling Up Family Planning to Reduce Maternal and Child Mortality: The Potential Costs and Benefits of Modern Contraceptive Use in South Africa

Introduction

Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa.

Methods

The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030.

Results

If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers.

Conclusion

Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing Loss to Follow-up in HIV Treatment Programs: A C?te d'Ivoire Appraisal

Background

Data from HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings show extensive rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) ranging from 5% to 40% within 6 mo of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Our objective was to project the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent LTFU from HIV care in West Africa.

Methods and Findings

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International model to project the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of LTFU-prevention programs from a payer perspective. These programs include components such as eliminating ART co-payments, eliminating charges to patients for opportunistic infection-related drugs, improving personnel training, and providing meals and reimbursing for transportation for participants. The efficacies and costs of these interventions were extensively varied in sensitivity analyses. We used World Health Organization criteria of <3× gross domestic product per capita (3× GDP per capita = US$2,823 for Côte d''Ivoire) as a plausible threshold for “cost-effectiveness.” The main results are based on a reported 18% 1-y LTFU rate. With full retention in care, projected per-person discounted life expectancy starting from age 37 y was 144.7 mo (12.1 y). Survival losses from LTFU within 1 y of ART initiation ranged from 73.9 to 80.7 mo. The intervention costing US$22/person/year (e.g., eliminating ART co-payment) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 12%. An intervention costing US$77/person/year (inclusive of all the components described above) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 41%.

Conclusions

Interventions that prevent LTFU in resource-limited settings would substantially improve survival and would be cost-effective by international criteria with efficacy of at least 12%–41%, depending on the cost of intervention, based on a reported 18% cumulative incidence of LTFU at 1 y after ART initiation. The commitment to start ART and treat HIV in these settings should include interventions to prevent LTFU. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The influence of distance and level of care on delivery place in rural Zambia: a study of linked national data in a geographic information system

Background

Maternal and perinatal mortality could be reduced if all women delivered in settings where skilled attendants could provide emergency obstetric care (EmOC) if complications arise. Research on determinants of skilled attendance at delivery has focussed on household and individual factors, neglecting the influence of the health service environment, in part due to a lack of suitable data. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of distance to care and level of care on women''s use of health facilities for delivery in rural Zambia, and to compare their population impact to that of other important determinants.

Methods and Findings

Using a geographic information system (GIS), we linked national household data from the Zambian Demographic and Health Survey 2007 with national facility data from the Zambian Health Facility Census 2005 and calculated straight-line distances. Health facilities were classified by whether they provided comprehensive EmOC (CEmOC), basic EmOC (BEmOC), or limited or substandard services. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the influence of distance to care and level of care on place of delivery (facility or home) for 3,682 rural births, controlling for a wide range of confounders. Only a third of rural Zambian births occurred at a health facility, and half of all births were to mothers living more than 25 km from a facility of BEmOC standard or better. As distance to the closest health facility doubled, the odds of facility delivery decreased by 29% (95% CI, 14%–40%). Independently, each step increase in level of care led to 26% higher odds of facility delivery (95% CI, 7%–48%). The population impact of poor geographic access to EmOC was at least of similar magnitude as that of low maternal education, household poverty, or lack of female autonomy.

Conclusions

Lack of geographic access to emergency obstetric care is a key factor explaining why most rural deliveries in Zambia still occur at home without skilled care. Addressing geographic and quality barriers is crucial to increase service use and to lower maternal and perinatal mortality. Linking datasets using GIS has great potential for future research and can help overcome the neglect of health system factors in research and policy. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

A Multifaceted Intervention to Improve the Quality of Care of Children in District Hospitals in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale.

Methods and Findings

Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider''s perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26–67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67–47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19–2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A “what-if” analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3.

Conclusion

Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Costs associated with low birth weight in a rural area of Southern Mozambique

Background

Low Birth Weight (LBW) is prevalent in low-income countries. Even though the economic evaluation of interventions to reduce this burden is essential to guide health policies, data on costs associated with LBW are scarce. This study aims to estimate the costs to the health system and to the household and the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) arising from infant deaths associated with LBW in Southern Mozambique.

Methods and Findings

Costs incurred by the households were collected through exit surveys. Health system costs were gathered from data obtained onsite and from published information. DALYs due to death of LBW babies were based on local estimates of prevalence of LBW (12%), very low birth weight (VLBW) (1%) and of case fatality rates compared to non-LBW weight babies [for LBW (12%) and VLBW (80%)]. Costs associated with LBW excess morbidity were calculated on the incremental number of hospital admissions in LBW babies compared to non-LBW weight babies. Direct and indirect household costs for routine health care were 24.12 US$ (CI 95% 21.51; 26.26). An increase in birth weight of 100 grams would lead to a 53% decrease in these costs. Direct and indirect household costs for hospital admissions were 8.50 US$ (CI 95% 6.33; 10.72). Of the 3,322 live births that occurred in one year in the study area, health system costs associated to LBW (routine health care and excess morbidity) and DALYs were 169,957.61 US$ (CI 95% 144,900.00; 195,500.00) and 2,746.06, respectively.

Conclusions

This first cost evaluation of LBW in a low-income country shows that reducing the prevalence of LBW would translate into important cost savings to the health system and the household. These results are of relevance for similar settings and should serve to promote interventions aimed at improving maternal care.     

Quality of Obstetric Referral Services in India's JSY Cash Transfer Programme for Institutional Births: A Study from Madhya Pradesh Province

Background

India launched JSY cash transfer programme to increase access to emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC) by incentivising in-facility births. This increased in-facility births from 30%in 2005 to 73% in 2012 however, decline in maternal mortality follows a secular trend. Dysfunctional referral services can contribute to poor programme impact on outcomes. We hence describe inter- facility referrals and study quality of referral services in JSY.

Methods and Results

Women accessing intra natal care (n = 1182) at facilities (reporting >10 deliveries/month, n = 96) were interviewed in a 5 day cross sectional survey in 3 districts of Madhya Pradesh province. A nested matched case control study (n = 68 pairs) was performed to study association between maternal referral and adverse birth outcomes. There were 111 (9.4%) in referrals and 69 (5.8%) out referrals. Secondary level facilities sent most referrals and 40% were for conditions expected to be treated at this level. There were 36 adverse birth outcomes (intra partum and in-facility deaths). After matching for type of complication and place of delivery, conditional logistic regression model showed maternal referral at term delivery was associated with higher odds of adverse birth outcomes (OR- 2.6, 95% CI: 1.0–6.6 p = 0.04). Maternal death record review (April 10–March 12) was conducted at the CEmOC facility in one district. Spatial analysis of transfer time from sending to the receiving CEmOC facility among in-facility maternal deaths was conducted in ArcGIS10 applying two hours (equated to 100 Km) as desired transfer time. There were 124 maternal deaths, 55 of which were among mothers referred in. Buffer analysis revealed 98% mothers were referred from <2 hours. Median time between arrival and death was 6.75 hours.

Conclusions

High odds of adverse birth outcomes associated with maternal referral and high maternal deaths despite spatial access to referral care indicate poor quality of referral services.     

The Effect of Changing Patterns of Obstetric Care in Scotland (1980–2004) on Rates of Preterm Birth and Its Neonatal Consequences: Perinatal Database Study

Background

Rates of preterm birth are rising worldwide. Studies from the United States and Latin America suggest that much of this rise relates to increased rates of medically indicated preterm birth. In contrast, European and Australian data suggest that increases in spontaneous preterm labour also play a role. We aimed, in a population-based database of 5 million people, to determine the temporal trends and obstetric antecedents of singleton preterm birth and its associated neonatal mortality and morbidity for the period 1980–2004.

Methods and Findings

There were 1.49 million births in Scotland over the study period, of which 5.8% were preterm. We found a percentage increase in crude rates of both spontaneous preterm birth per 1,000 singleton births (10.7%, p<0.01) and medically indicated preterm births (41.2%, p<0.01), which persisted when adjusted for maternal age at delivery. The greater proportion of spontaneous preterm births meant that the absolute increase in rates of preterm birth in each category were similar. Of specific maternal complications, essential and pregnancy-induced hypertension, pre-eclampsia, and placenta praevia played a decreasing role in preterm birth over the study period, with gestational and pre-existing diabetes playing an increasing role. There was a decline in stillbirth, neonatal, and extended perinatal mortality associated with preterm birth at all gestation over the study period but an increase in the rate of prolonged hospital stay for the neonate. Neonatal mortality improved in all subgroups, regardless of obstetric antecedent of preterm birth or gestational age. In the 28 wk and greater gestational groups we found a reduction in stillbirths and extended perinatal mortality for medically induced but not spontaneous preterm births (in the absence of maternal complications) although at the expense of a longer stay in neonatal intensive care. This improvement in stillbirth and neonatal mortality supports the decision making behind the 34% increase in elective/induced preterm birth in these women. Although improvements in neonatal outcomes overall are welcome, preterm birth still accounts for over 66% of singleton stillbirths, 65% of singleton neonatal deaths, and 67% of infants whose stay in the neonatal unit is “prolonged,” suggesting this condition remains a significant contributor to perinatal mortality and morbidity.

Conclusions

In our population, increases in spontaneous and medically induced preterm births have made equal contributions to the rising rate of preterm birth. Despite improvements in related perinatal mortality, preterm birth remains a major obstetric and neonatal problem, and its frequency is increasing. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Scaling up diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions: a Lives Saved Tool analysis

Background

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Although the evidence for individual diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions is solid, the effect a comprehensive scale-up effort would have on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated.

Methods and Findings

We use the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential lives saved if two scale-up scenarios for key diarrhea interventions (oral rehydration salts [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery, rotavirus vaccine, vitamin A supplementation, basic water, sanitation, hygiene, and breastfeeding) were implemented in the 68 high child mortality countries. We also conduct a simple costing exercise to estimate cost per capita and total costs for each scale-up scenario. Under the ambitious (feasible improvement in coverage of all interventions) and universal (assumes near 100% coverage of all interventions) scale-up scenarios, we demonstrate that diarrhea mortality can be reduced by 78% and 92%, respectively. With universal coverage nearly 5 million diarrheal deaths could be averted during the 5-year scale-up period for an additional cost of US$12.5 billion invested across 68 priority countries for individual-level prevention and treatment interventions, and an additional US$84.8 billion would be required for the addition of all water and sanitation interventions.

Conclusion

Using currently available interventions, we demonstrate that with improved coverage, diarrheal deaths can be drastically reduced. If delivery strategy bottlenecks can be overcome and the international community can collectively deliver on the key strategies outlined in these scenarios, we will be one step closer to achieving success for the United Nations'' Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) by 2015. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

An appraisal of the maternal mortality decline in Nepal

Background

A decline in the national maternal mortality ratio in Nepal has been observed from surveys conducted between 1996 and 2008. This paper aims to assess the plausibility of the decline and to identify drivers of change.

Methods

National and sub-national trends in mortality data were investigated using existing demographic and health surveys and maternal mortality and morbidity surveys. Potential drivers of the variation in maternal mortality between districts were identified by regressing district-level indicators from the Nepal demographic health surveys against maternal mortality estimates.

Results

A statistically significant decline of the maternal mortality ratio from 539 maternal deaths to 281 per 100,000 (95% CI 91,507) live births between 1993 and 2003 was demonstrated. The sub-national changes are of similar magnitude and direction to those observed nationally, and in the terai region (plains) the differences are statistically significant with a reduction of 361 per 100,000 live births (95% CI 36,686) during the same time period.The reduction in fertility, changes in education and wealth, improvements in components of the human development index, gender empowerment and anaemia each explained more than 10% of the district variation in maternal mortality. A number of limitations in each of the data sources used were identified. Of these, the most important relate to the underestimation of numbers of deaths.

Conclusion

It is likely that there has been a decline in Nepal''s maternal mortality since 1993. This is good news for the country''s sustained commitments in this area. Conclusions on the magnitude, pattern of the change and drivers of the decline are constrained by lack of data. We recommend close tracking of maternal mortality and its determinants in Nepal, attention to the communication of future estimates, and various options for bridging data gaps.     

Cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy in southern Mozambique

Background

Malaria in pregnancy is a public health problem for endemic countries. Economic evaluations of malaria preventive strategies in pregnancy are needed to guide health policies.

Methods and Findings

This analysis was carried out in the context of a trial of malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP), where both intervention groups received an insecticide treated net through the antenatal clinic (ANC) in Mozambique. The cost-effectiveness of IPTp-SP on maternal clinical malaria and neonatal survival was estimated. Correlation and threshold analyses were undertaken to assess the main factors affecting the economic outcomes and the cut-off values beyond which the intervention is no longer cost-effective. In 2007 US$, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for maternal malaria was 41.46 US$ (95% CI 20.5, 96.7) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. The ICER per DALY averted due to the reduction in neonatal mortality was 1.08 US$ (95% CI 0.43, 3.48). The ICER including both the effect on the mother and on the newborn was 1.02 US$ (95% CI 0.42, 3.21) per DALY averted. Efficacy was the main factor affecting the economic evaluation of IPTp-SP. The intervention remained cost-effective with an increase in drug cost per dose up to 11 times in the case of maternal malaria and 183 times in the case of neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

IPTp-SP was highly cost-effective for both prevention of maternal malaria and reduction of neonatal mortality in Mozambique. These findings are likely to hold for other settings where IPTp-SP is implemented through ANC visits. The intervention remained cost-effective even with a significant increase in drug and other intervention costs. Improvements in the protective efficacy of the intervention would increase its cost-effectiveness. Provision of IPTp with a more effective, although more expensive drug than SP may still remain a cost-effective public health measure to prevent malaria in pregnancy.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00209781","term_id":"NCT00209781"}}NCT00209781     

Cost-effectiveness of early versus standard antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected adults in Haiti

Background

In a randomized clinical trial of early versus standard antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected adults with a CD4 cell count between 200 and 350 cells/mm³ in Haiti, early ART decreased mortality by 75%. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of early versus standard ART in this trial.

Methods and Findings

Trial data included use of ART and other medications, laboratory tests, outpatient visits, radiographic studies, procedures, and hospital services. Medication, laboratory, radiograph, labor, and overhead costs were from the study clinic, and hospital and procedure costs were from local providers. We evaluated cost per year of life saved (YLS), including patient and caregiver costs, with a median of 21 months and maximum of 36 months of follow-up, and with costs and life expectancy discounted at 3% per annum. Between 2005 and 2008, 816 participants were enrolled and followed for a median of 21 months. Mean total costs per patient during the trial were US$1,381 for early ART and US$1,033 for standard ART. After excluding research-related laboratory tests without clinical benefit, costs were US$1,158 (early ART) and US$979 (standard ART). Early ART patients had higher mean costs for ART (US$398 versus US$81) but lower costs for non-ART medications, CD4 cell counts, clinically indicated tests, and radiographs (US$275 versus US$384). The cost-effectiveness ratio after a maximum of 3 years for early versus standard ART was US$3,975/YLS (95% CI US$2,129/YLS–US$9,979/YLS) including research-related tests, and US$2,050/YLS excluding research-related tests (95% CI US$722/YLS–US$5,537/YLS).

Conclusions

Initiating ART in HIV-infected adults with a CD4 cell count between 200 and 350 cells/mm³ in Haiti, consistent with World Health Organization advice, was cost-effective (US$/YLS <3 times gross domestic product per capita) after a maximum of 3 years, after excluding research-related laboratory tests.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00120510","term_id":"NCT00120510"}}NCT00120510 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Maternal Mortality in India: Causes and Healthcare Service Use Based on a Nationally Representative Survey

Background

Data on cause-specific mortality, skilled birth attendance, and emergency obstetric care access are essential to plan maternity services. We present the distribution of India''s 2001–2003 maternal mortality by cause and uptake of emergency obstetric care, in poorer and richer states.

Methods and Findings

The Registrar General of India surveyed all deaths occurring in 2001–2003 in 1.1 million nationally representative homes. Field staff interviewed household members about events that preceded the death. Two physicians independently assigned a cause of death. Narratives for all maternal deaths were coded for variables on healthcare uptake. Distribution of number of maternal deaths, cause-specific mortality and uptake of healthcare indicators were compared for poorer and richer states. There were 10 041 all-cause deaths in women age 15–49 years, of which 1096 (11.1%) were maternal deaths. Based on 2004–2006 SRS national MMR estimates of 254 deaths per 100 000 live births, we estimated rural areas of poorer states had the highest MMR (397, 95%CI 385–410) compared to the lowest MMR in urban areas of richer states (115, 95%CI 85–146). We estimated 69 400 maternal deaths in India in 2005. Three-quarters of maternal deaths were clustered in rural areas of poorer states, although these regions have only half the estimated live births in India. Most maternal deaths were attributed to direct obstetric causes (82%). There was no difference in the major causes of maternal deaths between poorer and richer states. Two-thirds of women died seeking some form of healthcare, most seeking care in a critical medical condition. Rural areas of poorer states had proportionately lower access and utilization to healthcare services than the urban areas; however this rural-urban difference was not seen in richer states.

Conclusions

Maternal mortality and poor access to healthcare is disproportionately higher in rural populations of the poorer states of India.     

Male Circumcision at Different Ages in Rwanda: A Cost-Effectiveness Study

Background

There is strong evidence showing that male circumcision (MC) reduces HIV infection and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In Rwanda, where adult HIV prevalence is 3%, MC is not a traditional practice. The Rwanda National AIDS Commission modelled cost and effects of MC at different ages to inform policy and programmatic decisions in relation to introducing MC. This study was necessary because the MC debate in Southern Africa has focused primarily on MC for adults. Further, this is the first time, to our knowledge, that a cost-effectiveness study on MC has been carried out in a country where HIV prevalence is below 5%.

Methods and Findings

A cost-effectiveness model was developed and applied to three hypothetical cohorts in Rwanda: newborns, adolescents, and adult men. Effectiveness was defined as the number of HIV infections averted, and was calculated as the product of the number of people susceptible to HIV infection in the cohort, the HIV incidence rate at different ages, and the protective effect of MC; discounted back to the year of circumcision and summed over the life expectancy of the circumcised person. Direct costs were based on interviews with experienced health care providers to determine inputs involved in the procedure (from consumables to staff time) and related prices. Other costs included training, patient counselling, treatment of adverse events, and promotion campaigns, and they were adjusted for the averted lifetime cost of health care (antiretroviral therapy [ART], opportunistic infection [OI], laboratory tests). One-way sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the main inputs of the model, and thresholds were calculated at which each intervention is no longer cost-saving and at which an intervention costs more than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per life-year gained. Results: Neonatal MC is less expensive than adolescent and adult MC (US$15 instead of US$59 per procedure) and is cost-saving (the cost-effectiveness ratio is negative), even though savings from infant circumcision will be realized later in time. The cost per infection averted is US$3,932 for adolescent MC and US$4,949 for adult MC. Results for infant MC appear robust. Infant MC remains highly cost-effective across a reasonable range of variation in the base case scenario. Adolescent MC is highly cost-effective for the base case scenario but this high cost-effectiveness is not robust to small changes in the input variables. Adult MC is neither cost-saving nor highly cost-effective when considering only the direct benefit for the circumcised man.

Conclusions

The study suggests that Rwanda should be simultaneously scaling up circumcision across a broad range of age groups, with high priority to the very young. Infant MC can be integrated into existing health services (i.e., neonatal visits and vaccination sessions) and over time has better potential than adolescent and adult circumcision to achieve the very high coverage of the population required for maximal reduction of HIV incidence. In the presence of infant MC, adolescent and adult MC would evolve into a “catch-up” campaign that would be needed at the start of the program but would eventually become superfluous. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Population Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: A Dynamic Simulation and Economic Evaluation

Background

The Xpert MTB/RIF test enables rapid detection of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance. The World Health Organization recommends Xpert for initial diagnosis in individuals suspected of having multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) or HIV-associated TB, and many countries are moving quickly toward adopting Xpert. As roll-out proceeds, it is essential to understand the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies based on Xpert.

Methods and Findings

We evaluated potential health and economic consequences of implementing Xpert in five southern African countries—Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland—where drug resistance and TB-HIV coinfection are prevalent. Using a calibrated, dynamic mathematical model, we compared the status quo diagnostic algorithm, emphasizing sputum smear, against an algorithm incorporating Xpert for initial diagnosis. Results were projected over 10- and 20-y time periods starting from 2012. Compared to status quo, implementation of Xpert would avert 132,000 (95% CI: 55,000–284,000) TB cases and 182,000 (97,000–302,000) TB deaths in southern Africa over the 10 y following introduction, and would reduce prevalence by 28% (14%–40%) by 2022, with more modest reductions in incidence. Health system costs are projected to increase substantially with Xpert, by US$460 million (294–699 million) over 10 y. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV represents a substantial fraction of these additional costs, because of improved survival in TB/HIV-infected populations through better TB case-finding and treatment. Costs for treating MDR-TB are also expected to rise significantly with Xpert scale-up. Relative to status quo, Xpert has an estimated cost-effectiveness of US$959 (633–1,485) per disability-adjusted life-year averted over 10 y. Across countries, cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US$792 (482–1,785) in Swaziland to US$1,257 (767–2,276) in Botswana. Assessing outcomes over a 10-y period focuses on the near-term consequences of Xpert adoption, but the cost-effectiveness results are conservative, with cost-effectiveness ratios assessed over a 20-y time horizon approximately 20% lower than the 10-y values.

Conclusions

Introduction of Xpert could substantially change TB morbidity and mortality through improved case-finding and treatment, with more limited impact on long-term transmission dynamics. Despite extant uncertainty about TB natural history and intervention impact in southern Africa, adoption of Xpert evidently offers reasonable value for its cost, based on conventional benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. However, the additional financial burden would be substantial, including significant increases in costs for treating HIV and MDR-TB. Given the fundamental influence of HIV on TB dynamics and intervention costs, care should be taken when interpreting the results of this analysis outside of settings with high HIV prevalence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Contribution of Family Planning towards the Prevention of Vertical HIV Transmission in Uganda

Background

Uganda has one of the highest total fertility rates (TFR) worldwide. We compared the effects of antiretroviral (ARV) prophylaxis for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) to that of existing family planning (FP) use and estimated the burden of pediatric HIV disease due to unwanted fertility.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using the demographic software Spectrum, a baseline mathematical projection to estimate the current pediatric HIV burden in Uganda was compared to three hypothetical projections: 1) without ARV-PMTCT (to estimate the effect of ARV-PMTCT), 2) without contraception (effect of existing FP use), 3) without unwanted fertility (effect of unmet FP needs). Key input parameters included HIV prevalence, ARV-PMTCT uptake, MTCT probabilities, and TFR. We estimate that in 2007, an estimated 25,000 vertical infections and 17,000 pediatric AIDS deaths occurred (baseline projection). Existing ARV-PMTCT likely averted 8.1% of infections and 8.5% of deaths. FP use likely averted 19.7% of infections and 13.1% of deaths. Unwanted fertility accounted for 21.3% of infections and 13.4% of deaths. During 2008–2012, an estimated 131,000 vertical infections and 71,000 pediatric AIDS deaths will occur. The projected scale up of ARV-PMTCT (from 39%–57%) may avert 18.1% of infections and 24.5% of deaths. Projected FP use may avert 21.6% of infections and 18.5% of deaths. Unwanted fertility will account for 24.5% of infections and 19.8% of deaths.

Conclusions

Existing FP use contributes as much or more than ARV-PMTCT in mitigating pediatric HIV in Uganda. Expanding FP services can substantially contribute towards PMTCT.     

Measuring Unsafe Abortion-Related Mortality: A Systematic Review of the Existing Methods

Background

The WHO estimates that 13% of maternal mortality is due to unsafe abortion, but challenges with measurement and data quality persist. To our knowledge, no systematic assessment of the validity of studies reporting estimates of abortion-related mortality exists.

Study Design

To be included in this study, articles had to meet the following criteria: (1) published between September 1^st, 2000-December 1^st, 2011; (2) utilized data from a country where abortion is “considered unsafe”; (3) specified and enumerated causes of maternal death including “abortion”; (4) enumerated ≥100 maternal deaths; (5) a quantitative research study; (6) published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Results

7,438 articles were initially identified. Thirty-six studies were ultimately included. Overall, studies rated “Very Good” found the highest estimates of abortion related mortality (median 16%, range 1–27.4%). Studies rated “Very Poor” found the lowest overall proportion of abortion related deaths (median: 2%, range 1.3–9.4%).

Conclusions

Improvements in the quality of data collection would facilitate better understanding global abortion-related mortality. Until improved data exist, better reporting of study procedures and standardization of the definition of abortion and abortion-related mortality should be encouraged.     

Effect of investment in malaria control on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002-2008

Background

Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined.

Methods and Findings

We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births.

Conclusions

Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources.