Enhanced shrub growth in the Arctic increases habitat connectivity for browsing herbivores

Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate–shrub–moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall‐shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems.     

Tundra be dammed: Beaver colonization of the Arctic

Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293 km²) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.     

Hierarchical habitat selection by barren-ground grizzly bears in the central Canadian Arctic

Using resource selection functions, we examined habitat selection patterns of barren-ground grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the central Canadian Arctic among and within home ranges. There was no difference between the sexes with regard to habitat selection patterns at the home range level (Wilks' 5, approx. F_11,11=1.27, P=0.37). Bear home ranges contain more esker habitat, tussock/hummock successional tundra, lichen veneer, birch seep, and tall shrub riparian areas relative to the proportional availability of habitats in the study area. We observed differences in habitat selection within home ranges among levels of sex/reproductive status (Wilks' 5, approx. F_20,412=3.32, P<0.001) and by season (Wilks' 5, approx. F_30,605=2.71, P<0.001). Eskers and tall shrub riparian zones were the habitats most preferred by bears throughout the year. Tussock/hummock successional tundra was also favored by males at varying times during the year and lichen veneers were favored in spring and autumn by most bears. Females with cubs tended to avoid the highest ranked habitat for males throughout the year. This pattern of habitat selection was not observed for females without accompanying young. Results of this study underline the importance of scale dependence in habitat selection. Failure to view habitat selection as a hierarchical process may result in a narrow and possibly misleading notion of habitat selection patterns.     

Novel wildlife in the Arctic: the influence of changing riparian ecosystems and shrub habitat expansion on snowshoe hares

Warming during the 20th century has changed the arctic landscape, including aspects of the hydrology, vegetation, permafrost, and glaciers, but effects on wildlife have been difficult to detect. The primary aim of this study is to examine the physical and biological processes contributing to the expanded riparian habitat and range of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) in northern Alaska. We explore linkages between components of the riparian ecosystem in Arctic Alaska since the 1960s, including seasonality of stream flow, air temperature, floodplain shrub habitat, and snowshoe hare distributions. Our analyses show that the peak discharge during spring snowmelt has occurred on average 3.4 days per decade earlier over the last 30 years and has contributed to a longer growing season in floodplain ecosystems. We use empirical correlations between cumulative summer warmth and riparian shrub height to reconstruct annual changes in shrub height from the 1960s to the present. The effects of longer and warmer growing seasons are estimated to have stimulated a 78% increase in the height of riparian shrubs. Earlier spring discharge and the estimated increase in riparian shrub height are consistent with observed riparian shrub expansion in the region. Our browsing measurements show that snowshoe hares require a mean riparian shrub height of at least 1.24–1.36 m, a threshold which our hindcasting indicates was met between 1964 and 1989. This generally coincides with observational evidence we present suggesting that snowshoe hares became established in 1977 or 1978. Warming and expanded shrub habitat is the most plausible reason for recent snowshoe hare establishment in Arctic Alaska. The establishment of snowshoe hares and other shrub herbivores in the Arctic in response to increasing shrub habitat is a contrasting terrestrial counterpart to the decline in marine mammals reliant on decreasing sea ice.     

Representation of tundra vegetation by pollen in lake sediments of northern Alaska

Aim To understand better the representation of arctic tundra vegetation by pollen data, we analysed pollen assemblages and pollen accumulation rates (PARs) in the surface sediments of lakes. Location Modern sediment samples were collected from seventy‐eight lakes located in the Arctic Foothills and Arctic Coastal Plain regions of northern Alaska. Methods For seventy of the lakes, we analysed pollen and spores in the upper 2 cm of the sediment and calculated the relative abundance of each taxon (pollen percentages). For eleven of the lakes, we used ²¹⁰Pb analysis to determine sediment accumulation rates, and analysed pollen in the upper 10–15 cm of the sediment to estimate modern PARs. Using a detailed land‐cover map of northern Alaska, we assigned each study site to one of five tundra types: moist dwarf‐shrub tussock‐graminoid tundra (DST), moist graminoid prostrate‐shrub tundra (PST) (coastal and inland types), low‐shrub tundra (LST) and wet graminoid tundra (WGT). Results Mapped pollen percentages and multivariate comparison of the pollen data using discriminant analysis show that pollen assemblages vary along the main north–south vegetational and climatic gradients. On the Arctic Coastal Plain where climate is cold and dry, graminoid‐dominated PST and WGT sites were characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Poaceae pollen. In the Arctic Foothills where climate is warmer and wetter, shrub‐dominated DST, PST and LST were characterized by high percentages of Alnus and Betula pollen. Small‐scale variations in tundra vegetation related to edaphic variability are also represented by the pollen data. Discriminant analysis demonstrated that DST sites could be distinguished from foothills PST sites based on their higher percentages of Ericales and Rubus chamaemorus pollen, and coastal PST sites could be distinguished from WGT sites based on their higher percentages of Artemisia. PARs appear to reflect variations in overall vegetation cover, although the small number of samples limits our understanding of these patterns. For coastal sites, PARs were higher for PST than WGT, whereas in the Arctic Foothills, PARs were highest in LST, intermediate in DST, and lowest in PST. Main conclusion Modern pollen data from northern Alaska reflect patterns of tundra vegetation related to both regional‐scale climatic gradients and landscape‐scale edaphic heterogeneity.     

Herbivores Influence the Growth,Reproduction, and Morphology of a Widespread Arctic Willow

Shrubs have expanded in Arctic ecosystems over the past century, resulting in significant changes to albedo, ecosystem function, and plant community composition. Willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus, L. muta) and moose (Alces alces) extensively browse Arctic shrubs, and may influence their architecture, growth, and reproduction. Furthermore, these herbivores may alter forage plants in such a way as to increase the quantity and accessibility of their own food source. We estimated the effect of winter browsing by ptarmigan and moose on an abundant, early-successional willow (Salix alaxensis) in northern Alaska by comparing browsed to unbrowsed branches. Ptarmigan browsed 82–89% of willows and removed 30–39% of buds, depending on study area and year. Moose browsed 17–44% of willows and browsed 39–55% of shoots. Browsing inhibited apical dominance and activated axillary and adventitious buds to produce new vegetative shoots. Ptarmigan- and moose-browsed willow branches produced twice the volume of shoot growth but significantly fewer catkins the following summer compared with unbrowsed willow branches. Shoots on browsed willows were larger and produced 40–60% more buds compared to unbrowsed shoots. This process of shoot production at basal parts of the branch is the mechanism by which willows develop a highly complex “broomed” architecture after several years of browsing. Broomed willows were shorter and more likely to be re-browsed by ptarmigan, but not moose. Ptarmigan likely benefit from the greater quantity and accessibility of buds on previously browsed willows and may increase the carrying capacity of their own habitat. Despite the observed tolerance of willows to browsing, their vertical growth and reproduction were strongly inhibited by moose and ptarmigan. Browsing by these herbivores therefore needs to be considered in future models of shrub expansion in the Arctic.     

Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s

Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest‐tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in 11, widely distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very high‐resolution photography from the Cold War‐era ‘Gambit’ and ‘Corona’ satellite surveillance systems (1965–1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within‐landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of 11 ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder (Alnus) shrubland cover increased 5.3–25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch (Larix) cover increased 3.0–6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice‐rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine (Pinus) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned‐ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid‐1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub‐dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch‐dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia.     

Arctic arthropod assemblages in habitats of differing shrub dominance

Recent climate warming in the Arctic has caused advancement in the timing of snowmelt and expansion of shrubs into open tundra. Such an altered climate may directly and indirectly (via effects on vegetation) affect arctic arthropod abundance, diversity and assemblage taxonomic composition. To allow better predictions about how climate changes may affect these organisms, we compared arthropod assemblages between open and shrub‐dominated tundra at three field sites in northern Alaska that encompass a range of shrub communities. Over ten weeks of sampling in 2011, pitfall traps captured significantly more arthropods in shrub plots than open tundra plots at two of the three sites. Furthermore, taxonomic richness and diversity were significantly greater in shrub plots than open tundra plots, although this pattern was site‐specific as well. Patterns of abundance within the five most abundant arthropod orders differed, with spiders (Order: Araneae) more abundant in open tundra habitats and true bugs (Order: Hemiptera), flies (Order: Diptera), and wasps and bees (Order: Hymenoptera) more abundant in shrub‐dominated habitats. Few strong relationships were found between vegetation and environmental variables and arthropod abundance; however, lichen cover seemed to be important for the overall abundance of arthropods. Some arthropod orders showed significant relationships with other vegetation variables, including maximum shrub height (Coleoptera) and foliar canopy cover (Diptera). As climate warming continues over the coming decades, and with further shrub expansion likely to occur, changes in arthropod abundance, richness, and diversity associated with shrub‐dominated habitat may have important ecological effects on arctic food webs since arthropods play important ecological roles in the tundra, including in decomposition and trophic interactions.     

Frequent fires in ancient shrub tundra: implications of paleorecords for arctic environmental change

Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal that ancient birch-dominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 years on average (+/- 90 s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical role in facilitating the paleofires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21(st) century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as well as on land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to the atmosphere.     

Pathways of tundra encroachment by trees and tall shrubs in the western Brooks Range of Alaska

Climate change is expected to increase woody vegetation abundance in the Arctic, yet the magnitude, spatial pattern and pathways of change remain uncertain. We compared historical orthophotos photos (1952 and 1979) with high-resolution satellite imagery (2015) to examine six decades of change in abundance of white spruce Picea glauca and tall shrubs (Salix spp., Alnus spp.) near the Agashashok River in northwest Alaska. We established ~3000 random points within our ~5500 ha study area for classification into nine cover types. To examine physiographic controls on tree abundance, we fit multinomial log-linear models with predictors derived from a digital elevation model and with arctic tundra, alpine tundra and ‘tree’ as levels of a categorical response variable. Between 1952 and 2015, points classified as arctic and alpine tundra decreased by 31% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, tall shrubs increased by 86%, trees mixed with tall shrubs increased by 385% and forest increased by 84%. Tundra with tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. The best multinomial model explained 71% of variation in cover and included elevation, slope and an interaction between slope and ‘northness’. Treeline was defined as the elevation where the probability of tree presence equaled that of tundra. Mean treeline elevation in 2015 was 202 m, corresponding with a June–August mean air temperature > 11°C, which is > 4°C warmer than the 6–7°C isotherm associated with global treeline elevations. Our results show dramatic increases in the abundance of trees and tall shrubs, question the universality of air temperature as a predictor of treeline elevation and suggest two mutually exclusive pathways of vegetation change, because tundra that gained tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. Conversion of tundra to tall shrubs and forest has important and potentially contrasting implications for carbon cycling, surface energy exchange and wildlife habitat in the Arctic.