Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks

Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the duration of an outbreak. In reality, contact patterns may be quite fluid, with individuals frequently making and breaking social or sexual relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to predicting disease transmission on dynamic networks in which each individual has a characteristic behaviour (typical contact number), but the identities of their contacts change in time. We show that dynamic contact patterns shape epidemiological dynamics in ways that cannot be adequately captured in static network models or mass-action models. Our new model interpolates smoothly between static network models and mass-action models using a mixing parameter, thereby providing a bridge between disparate classes of epidemiological models. Using epidemiological and sexual contact data from an Atlanta high school, we demonstrate the application of this method for forecasting and controlling sexually transmitted disease outbreaks.     

Steady state analysis of influx and transbilayer distribution of ergosterol in the yeast plasma membrane

Mathematical modeling is now frequently used in outbreak investigations to understand underlying mechanisms of infectious disease dynamics, assess patterns in epidemiological data, and forecast the trajectory of epidemics. However, the successful application of mathematical models to guide public health interventions lies in the ability to reliably estimate model parameters and their corresponding uncertainty. Here, we present and illustrate a simple computational method for assessing parameter identifiability in compartmental epidemic models. We describe a parametric bootstrap approach to generate simulated data from dynamical systems to quantify parameter uncertainty and identifiability. We calculate confidence intervals and mean squared error of estimated parameter distributions to assess parameter identifiability. To demonstrate this approach, we begin with a low-complexity SEIR model and work through examples of increasingly more complex compartmental models that correspond with applications to pandemic influenza, Ebola, and Zika. Overall, parameter identifiability issues are more likely to arise with more complex models (based on number of equations/states and parameters). As the number of parameters being jointly estimated increases, the uncertainty surrounding estimated parameters tends to increase, on average, as well. We found that, in most cases, R0 is often robust to parameter identifiability issues affecting individual parameters in the model. Despite large confidence intervals and higher mean squared error of other individual model parameters, R0 can still be estimated with precision and accuracy. Because public health policies can be influenced by results of mathematical modeling studies, it is important to conduct parameter identifiability analyses prior to fitting the models to available data and to report parameter estimates with quantified uncertainty. The method described is helpful in these regards and enhances the essential toolkit for conducting model-based inferences using compartmental dynamic models.     

Phylodynamic Inference for Structured Epidemiological Models

Coalescent theory is routinely used to estimate past population dynamics and demographic parameters from genealogies. While early work in coalescent theory only considered simple demographic models, advances in theory have allowed for increasingly complex demographic scenarios to be considered. The success of this approach has lead to coalescent-based inference methods being applied to populations with rapidly changing population dynamics, including pathogens like RNA viruses. However, fitting epidemiological models to genealogies via coalescent models remains a challenging task, because pathogen populations often exhibit complex, nonlinear dynamics and are structured by multiple factors. Moreover, it often becomes necessary to consider stochastic variation in population dynamics when fitting such complex models to real data. Using recently developed structured coalescent models that accommodate complex population dynamics and population structure, we develop a statistical framework for fitting stochastic epidemiological models to genealogies. By combining particle filtering methods with Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we are able to fit a wide class of stochastic, nonlinear epidemiological models with different forms of population structure to genealogies. We demonstrate our framework using two structured epidemiological models: a model with disease progression between multiple stages of infection and a two-population model reflecting spatial structure. We apply the multi-stage model to HIV genealogies and show that the proposed method can be used to estimate the stage-specific transmission rates and prevalence of HIV. Finally, using the two-population model we explore how much information about population structure is contained in genealogies and what sample sizes are necessary to reliably infer parameters like migration rates.     

Mathematical modeling and optimization of cellulase protein production using Trichoderma reesei RL-P37

The enzyme cellulase, a multienzyme complex made up of several proteins, catalyzes the conversion of cellulose to glucose in an enzymatic hydrolysis-based biomass-to-ethanol process. Production of cellulase enzyme proteins in large quantities using the fungus Trichoderma reesei requires understanding the dynamics of growth and enzyme production. The method of neural network parameter function modeling, which combines the approximation capabilities of neural networks with fundamental process knowledge, is utilized to develop a mathematical model of this dynamic system. In addition, kinetic models are also developed. Laboratory data from bench-scale fermentations involving growth and protein production by T. reesei on lactose and xylose are used to estimate the parameters in these models. The relative performances of the various models and the results of optimizing these models on two different performance measures are presented. An approximately 33% lower root-mean-squared error (RMSE) in protein predictions and about 40% lower total RMSE is obtained with the neural network-based model as opposed to kinetic models. Using the neural network-based model, the RMSE in predicting optimal conditions for two performance indices, is about 67% and 40% lower, respectively, when compared with the kinetic models. Thus, both model predictions and optimization results from the neural network-based model are found to be closer to the experimental data than the kinetic models developed in this work. It is shown that the neural network parameter function modeling method can be useful as a "macromodeling" technique to rapidly develop dynamic models of a process.     

Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.     

Parkinsonian tremor and simplification in network dynamics

We explore the behavior of richly connected inhibitory neural networks under parameter changes that correspond to weakening of synaptic efficacies between network units, and show that transitions from irregular to periodic dynamics are common in such systems. The weakening of these connections leads to a reduction in the number of units that effectively drive the dynamics and thus to simpler behavior. We hypothesize that the multiple interconnecting loops of the brain’s motor circuitry, which involve many inhibitory connections, exhibit such transitions. Normal physiological tremor is irregular while other forms of tremor show more regular oscillations. Tremor in Parkinson’s disease, for example, stems from weakened synaptic efficacies of dopaminergic neurons in the nigro-striatal pathway, as in our general model. The multiplicity of structures involved in the production of symptoms in Parkinson’s disease and the reversibility of symptoms by pharmacological and surgical manipulation of connection parameters suggest that such a neural network model is appropriate. Furthermore, fixed points that can occur in the network models are suggestive of akinesia in Parkinson’s disease. This model is consistent with the view that normal physiological systems can be regulated by robust and richly connected feedback networks with complex dynamics, and that loss of complexity in the feedback structure due to disease leads to more orderly behavior.     

Variational data assimilation with epidemic models

Mathematical modelling is playing an increasing role in developing an understanding of the dynamics of communicable disease and assisting the construction and implementation of intervention strategies. The threat of novel emergent pathogens in human and animal hosts implies the requirement for methods that can robustly estimate epidemiological parameters and provide forecasts. Here, a technique called variational data assimilation is introduced as a means of optimally melding dynamic epidemic models with epidemiological observations and data to provide forecasts and parameter estimates. Using data from a simulated epidemic process the method is used to estimate the start time of an epidemic, to provide a forecast of future epidemic behaviour and estimate the basic reproductive ratio. A feature of the method is that it uses a basic continuous-time SIR model, which is often the first point of departure for epidemiological modelling during the early stages of an outbreak. The method is illustrated by application to data gathered during an outbreak of influenza in a school environment.     

Methods of modelling viral disease dynamics across the within- and between-host scales: the impact of virus dose on host population immunity

We study the epidemiology of a viral disease with dose-dependent replication and transmission by nesting a differential-equation model of the within-host viral dynamics inside a between-host epidemiological model. We use two complementary approaches for nesting the models: an agent-based (AB) simulation and a mean-field approximation called the growth-matrix (GM) model. We find that although infection rates and predicted case loads are somewhat different between the AB and GM models, several epidemiological parameters, e.g. mean immunity in the population and mean dose received, behave similarly across the methods. Further, through a comparison of our dose-dependent replication model against two control models that uncouple dose-dependent replication from transmission, we find that host immunity in a population after an epidemic is qualitatively different than when transmission depends on time-varying viral abundances within hosts. These results show that within-host dynamics and viral dose should not be neglected in epidemiological models, and that the simpler GM approach to model nesting provides a reasonable tradeoff between model complexity and accuracy of results.     

A declarative constraint-based method for analyzing discrete genetic regulatory networks

Dynamical modeling has proven useful for understanding how complex biological processes emerge from the many components and interactions composing genetic regulatory networks (GRNs). However, the development of models is hampered by large uncertainties in both the network structure and parameter values. To remedy this problem, the models are usually developed through an iterative process based on numerous simulations, confronting model predictions with experimental data and refining the model structure and/or parameter values to repair the inconsistencies. In this paper, we propose an alternative to this generate-and-test approach. We present a four-step method for the systematic construction and analysis of discrete models of GRNs by means of a declarative approach. Instead of instantiating the models as in classical modeling approaches, the biological knowledge on the network structure and its dynamics is formulated in the form of constraints. The compatibility of the network structure with the constraints is queried and in case of inconsistencies, some constraints are relaxed. Common properties of the consistent models are then analyzed by means of dedicated languages. Two such languages are introduced in the paper. Removing questionable constraints or adding interesting ones allows to further analyze the models. This approach allows to identify the best experiments to be carried out, in order to discriminate sets of consistent models and refine our knowledge on the system functioning. We test the feasibility of our approach, by applying it to the re-examination of a model describing the nutritional stress response in the bacterium Escherichia coli.     

Revealing mechanisms of infectious disease spread through empirical contact networks

The spread of pathogens fundamentally depends on the underlying contacts between individuals. Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease spread through contact networks, however, can be challenging due to limited knowledge of how an infectious disease spreads and its transmission rate. We developed a novel statistical tool, INoDS (Identifying contact Networks of infectious Disease Spread) that estimates the transmission rate of an infectious disease outbreak, establishes epidemiological relevance of a contact network in explaining the observed pattern of infectious disease spread and enables model comparison between different contact network hypotheses. We show that our tool is robust to incomplete data and can be easily applied to datasets where infection timings of individuals are unknown. We tested the reliability of INoDS using simulation experiments of disease spread on a synthetic contact network and find that it is robust to incomplete data and is reliable under different settings of network dynamics and disease contagiousness compared with previous approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method in two host-pathogen systems: Crithidia bombi in bumblebee colonies and Salmonella in wild Australian sleepy lizard populations. INoDS thus provides a novel and reliable statistical tool for identifying transmission pathways of infectious disease spread. In addition, application of INoDS extends to understanding the spread of novel or emerging infectious disease, an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, and overcoming common data-collection constraints.     

Bifurcation analysis of a neural network model

This paper describes the analysis of the well known neural network model by Wilson and Cowan. The neural network is modeled by a system of two ordinary differential equations that describe the evolution of average activities of excitatory and inhibitory populations of neurons. We analyze the dependence of the model's behavior on two parameters. The parameter plane is partitioned into regions of equivalent behavior bounded by bifurcation curves, and the representative phase diagram is constructed for each region. This allows us to describe qualitatively the behavior of the model in each region and to predict changes in the model dynamics as parameters are varied. In particular, we show that for some parameter values the system can exhibit long-period oscillations. A new type of dynamical behavior is also found when the system settles down either to a stationary state or to a limit cycle depending on the initial point.     

Hybrid neural network modeling of a full-scale industrial wastewater treatment process

In recent years, hybrid neural network approaches, which combine mechanistic and neural network models, have received considerable attention. These approaches are potentially very efficient for obtaining more accurate predictions of process dynamics by combining mechanistic and neural network models in such a way that the neural network model properly accounts for unknown and nonlinear parts of the mechanistic model. In this work, a full-scale coke-plant wastewater treatment process was chosen as a model system. Initially, a process data analysis was performed on the actual operational data by using principal component analysis. Next, a simplified mechanistic model and a neural network model were developed based on the specific process knowledge and the operational data of the coke-plant wastewater treatment process, respectively. Finally, the neural network was incorporated into the mechanistic model in both parallel and serial configurations. Simulation results showed that the parallel hybrid modeling approach achieved much more accurate predictions with good extrapolation properties as compared with the other modeling approaches even in the case of process upset caused by, for example, shock loading of toxic compounds. These results indicate that the parallel hybrid neural modeling approach is a useful tool for accurate and cost-effective modeling of biochemical processes, in the absence of other reasonably accurate process models.     

'SEEDY' (Simulation of Evolutionary and Epidemiological Dynamics): An R Package to Follow Accumulation of Within-Host Mutation in Pathogens

Genome sequencing is an increasingly common component of infectious disease outbreak investigations. However, the relationship between pathogen transmission and observed genetic data is complex, and dependent on several uncertain factors. As such, simulation of pathogen dynamics is an important tool for interpreting observed genomic data in an infectious disease outbreak setting, in order to test hypotheses and to explore the range of outcomes consistent with a given set of parameters. We introduce ‘seedy’, an R package for the simulation of evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/seedy/). Our software implements stochastic models for the accumulation of mutations within hosts, as well as individual-level disease transmission. By allowing variables such as the transmission bottleneck size, within-host effective population size and population mixing rates to be specified by the user, our package offers a flexible framework to investigate evolutionary dynamics during disease outbreaks. Furthermore, our software provides theoretical pairwise genetic distance distributions to provide a likelihood of person-to-person transmission based on genomic observations, and using this framework, implements transmission route assessment for genomic data collected during an outbreak. Our open source software provides an accessible platform for users to explore pathogen evolution and outbreak dynamics via simulation, and offers tools to assess observed genomic data in this context.     

Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations

The paper presents a method for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak due to an emerging disease, formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a stochastic compartmental epidemiological model with inhomogeneous mixing. The syndromic (typically non-medical) observations of the number of infected people (e.g. visits to pharmacies, sale of certain products, absenteeism from work/study, etc.) are assumed available for monitoring and prediction of the epidemic. The state of the epidemic, including the number of infected people and the unknown parameters of the model, are estimated via a particle filter. The numerical results indicate that the proposed framework can provide useful early prediction of the epidemic peak if the uncertainty in prior knowledge of model parameters is not excessive.     

Novel recurrent neural network for modelling biological networks: Oscillatory p53 interaction dynamics

Understanding the control of cellular networks consisting of gene and protein interactions and their emergent properties is a central activity of Systems Biology research. For this, continuous, discrete, hybrid, and stochastic methods have been proposed. Currently, the most common approach to modelling accurate temporal dynamics of networks is ordinary differential equations (ODE). However, critical limitations of ODE models are difficulty in kinetic parameter estimation and numerical solution of a large number of equations, making them more suited to smaller systems. In this article, we introduce a novel recurrent artificial neural network (RNN) that addresses above limitations and produces a continuous model that easily estimates parameters from data, can handle a large number of molecular interactions and quantifies temporal dynamics and emergent systems properties. This RNN is based on a system of ODEs representing molecular interactions in a signalling network. Each neuron represents concentration change of one molecule represented by an ODE. Weights of the RNN correspond to kinetic parameters in the system and can be adjusted incrementally during network training. The method is applied to the p53-Mdm2 oscillation system – a crucial component of the DNA damage response pathways activated by a damage signal. Simulation results indicate that the proposed RNN can successfully represent the behaviour of the p53-Mdm2 oscillation system and solve the parameter estimation problem with high accuracy. Furthermore, we presented a modified form of the RNN that estimates parameters and captures systems dynamics from sparse data collected over relatively large time steps. We also investigate the robustness of the p53-Mdm2 system using the trained RNN under various levels of parameter perturbation to gain a greater understanding of the control of the p53-Mdm2 system. Its outcomes on robustness are consistent with the current biological knowledge of this system. As more quantitative data become available on individual proteins, the RNN would be able to refine parameter estimation and mapping of temporal dynamics of individual signalling molecules as well as signalling networks as a system. Moreover, RNN can be used to modularise large signalling networks.     

Relating Phylogenetic Trees to Transmission Trees of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.     

Estimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approach

Fitting models with Bayesian likelihood-based parameter inference is becoming increasingly important in infectious disease epidemiology. Detailed datasets present the opportunity to identify subsets of these data that capture important characteristics of the underlying epidemiology. One such dataset describes the epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle, which is also an important exemplar of a disease with a wildlife reservoir (the Eurasian badger). Here, we evaluate a set of nested dynamic models of bTB transmission, including individual- and herd-level transmission heterogeneity and assuming minimal prior knowledge of the transmission and diagnostic test parameters. We performed a likelihood-based bootstrapping operation on the model to infer parameters based only on the recorded numbers of cattle testing positive for bTB at the start of each herd outbreak considering high- and low-risk areas separately. Models without herd heterogeneity are preferred in both areas though there is some evidence for super-spreading cattle. Similar to previous studies, we found low test sensitivities and high within-herd basic reproduction numbers (R₀), suggesting that there may be many unobserved infections in cattle, even though the current testing regime is sufficient to control within-herd epidemics in most cases. Compared with other, more data-heavy approaches, the summary data used in our approach are easily collected, making our approach attractive for other systems.     

A Stochastic Tick-Borne Disease Model: Exploring the Probability of Pathogen Persistence

We formulate and analyse a stochastic epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of a tick-borne disease in a single population using a continuous-time Markov chain approach. The stochastic model is based on an existing deterministic metapopulation tick-borne disease model. We compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in tick-borne disease dynamics. The probability of disease extinction and that of a major outbreak are computed and approximated using the multitype Galton–Watson branching process and numerical simulations, respectively. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that a disease outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected deer as opposed to infected ticks. These insights demonstrate the importance of host movement in the expansion of tick-borne diseases into new geographic areas.     

Computational neurogenetic modelling: a pathway to new discoveries in genetic neuroscience

The paper presents a methodology for using computational neurogenetic modelling (CNGM) to bring new original insights into how genes influence the dynamics of brain neural networks. CNGM is a novel computational approach to brain neural network modelling that integrates dynamic gene networks with artificial neural network model (ANN). Interaction of genes in neurons affects the dynamics of the whole ANN model through neuronal parameters, which are no longer constant but change as a function of gene expression. Through optimization of interactions within the internal gene regulatory network (GRN), initial gene/protein expression values and ANN parameters, particular target states of the neural network behaviour can be achieved, and statistics about gene interactions can be extracted. In such a way, we have obtained an abstract GRN that contains predictions about particular gene interactions in neurons for subunit genes of AMPA, GABAA and NMDA neuro-receptors. The extent of sequence conservation for 20 subunit proteins of all these receptors was analysed using standard bioinformatics multiple alignment procedures. We have observed abundance of conserved residues but the most interesting observation has been the consistent conservation of phenylalanine (F at position 269) and leucine (L at position 353) in all 20 proteins with no mutations. We hypothesise that these regions can be the basis for mutual interactions. Existing knowledge on evolutionary linkage of their protein families and analysis at molecular level indicate that the expression of these individual subunits should be coordinated, which provides the biological justification for our optimized GRN.     

Computational Modeling of Seizure Dynamics Using Coupled Neuronal Networks: Factors Shaping Epileptiform Activity

Epileptic seizure dynamics span multiple scales in space and time. Understanding seizure mechanisms requires identifying the relations between seizure components within and across these scales, together with the analysis of their dynamical repertoire. Mathematical models have been developed to reproduce seizure dynamics across scales ranging from the single neuron to the neural population. In this study, we develop a network model of spiking neurons and systematically investigate the conditions, under which the network displays the emergent dynamic behaviors known from the Epileptor, which is a well-investigated abstract model of epileptic neural activity. This approach allows us to study the biophysical parameters and variables leading to epileptiform discharges at cellular and network levels. Our network model is composed of two neuronal populations, characterized by fast excitatory bursting neurons and regular spiking inhibitory neurons, embedded in a common extracellular environment represented by a slow variable. By systematically analyzing the parameter landscape offered by the simulation framework, we reproduce typical sequences of neural activity observed during status epilepticus. We find that exogenous fluctuations from extracellular environment and electro-tonic couplings play a major role in the progression of the seizure, which supports previous studies and further validates our model. We also investigate the influence of chemical synaptic coupling in the generation of spontaneous seizure-like events. Our results argue towards a temporal shift of typical spike waves with fast discharges as synaptic strengths are varied. We demonstrate that spike waves, including interictal spikes, are generated primarily by inhibitory neurons, whereas fast discharges during the wave part are due to excitatory neurons. Simulated traces are compared with in vivo experimental data from rodents at different stages of the disorder. We draw the conclusion that slow variations of global excitability, due to exogenous fluctuations from extracellular environment, and gap junction communication push the system into paroxysmal regimes. We discuss potential mechanisms underlying such machinery and the relevance of our approach, supporting previous detailed modeling studies and reflecting on the limitations of our methodology.