Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity (Moran effect) can act to synchronize populations. In this study we used historical spatially referenced data on gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) outbreaks to document that density-dependent processes can vary substantially across geographical landscapes. This variation may be due in part to geographical variation in habitat (e.g., variation in forest composition). We then used a second-order log-linear stochastic model to explore how inter-population variation in density-dependent processes affects synchronization via either synchronous stochastic forcing or dispersal. We found that geographical variation in direct density-dependence (first order) greatly diminishes synchrony caused by stochasticity but only slightly decreases synchronization via dispersal. Variation in delayed density-dependence (second order) diluted synchrony caused by regional stochasticity to a lesser extent than first-order variation, but it did not have any influence on synchrony caused by dispersal. In general, synchronization caused by dispersal was primarily dependent upon the instability of populations and only weakly, if at all, affected by similarities in density-dependence among populations. We conclude that studies of synchrony should carefully consider both the nature of the synchronizing agents and the pattern of local density-dependent processes, including how these vary geographically.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Density-dependent dispersal and spatial population dynamics

The synchronization of the dynamics of spatially subdivided populations is of both fundamental and applied interest in population biology. Based on theoretical studies, dispersal movements have been inferred to be one of the most general causes of population synchrony, yet no empirical study has mapped distance-dependent estimates of movement rates on the actual pattern of synchrony in species that are known to exhibit population synchrony. Northern vole and lemming species are particularly well-known for their spatially synchronized population dynamics. Here, we use results from an experimental study to demonstrate that tundra vole dispersal movements did not act to synchronize population dynamics in fragmented habitats. In contrast to the constant dispersal rate assumed in earlier theoretical studies, the tundra vole, and many other species, exhibit negative density-dependent dispersal. Simulations of a simple mathematical model, parametrized on the basis of our experimental data, verify the empirical results, namely that the observed negative density-dependent dispersal did not have a significant synchronizing effect.     

Impact of dispersal on population growth: the role of inter-patch distance

Dispersal can play a key role in the dynamics of patchy populations through patch colonization, and generally this leads to distance-dependent colonization. Less recognised are the roles of dispersal and inter-patch distance on the growth of a population after colonization. We use a laboratory mite model system in which both juveniles and adults can disperse to explore the impact of dispersal, and particularly inter-patch distance, on population dynamics. We examine the dynamics of patches after colonization by manipulating the presence of a dispersal corridor to a source patch at two inter-patch distances. Consistent with many field studies, the results show colonization was slower in more distant patches. Following colonization, the effect of the dispersal corridor on dynamics was dependent on inter-patch distance. In patches near the source, the number of adults tended to increase at a faster rate, and juveniles at a slower rate when connected with a dispersal corridor. In contrast, adult numbers grew slower and juveniles tended to grow faster when connected with a corridor in more distant patches. In the long-term, equilibrium adult numbers were lower in patches connected to the source patch at both distances. These results are likely to be driven by the effects of inter-patch distance on dispersal mortality, and the effects of dispersal on patch abundance and within-patch competition. These results confirm that distance is important for patch colonization and also show that distance can affect population density after colonization. The effects of dispersal and distance on local dynamics could be important in the dynamics of patchy populations in increasingly fragmented landscapes.     

Effects of patch number and dispersal patterns on population dynamics and synchrony

In this paper, we examine the effects of patch number and different dispersal patterns on dynamics of local populations and on the level of synchrony between them. Local population renewal is governed by the Ricker model and we also consider asymmetrical dispersal as well as the presence of environmental heterogeneity. Our results show that both population dynamics and the level of synchrony differ markedly between two and a larger number of local populations. For two patches different dispersal rules give very versatile dynamics. However, for a larger number of local populations the dynamics are similar irrespective of the dispersal rule. For example, for the parameter values yielding stable or periodic dynamics in a single population, the dynamics do not change when the patches are coupled with dispersal. High intensity of dispersal does not guarantee synchrony between local populations. The level of synchrony depends also on dispersal rule, the number of local populations, and the intrinsic rate of increase. In our study, the effects of density-independent and density-dependent dispersal rules do not show any consistent difference. The results call for caution when drawing general conclusions from models of only two interacting populations and question the applicability of a large number of theoretical papers dealing with two local populations.     

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing.     

Impacts of dispersal on rapid adaptation and dynamic stability of Daphnia in fluctuating environments

Prior ecological research has shown that spatial processes can enhance the temporal stability of populations in fluctuating environments. Less explored is the effect of dispersal on rapid adaptation and its concomitant impact on population dynamics. For asexually reproducing populations, theory predicts that dispersal in fluctuating environments can facilitate asynchrony among clones and enhance stability by reducing temporal variability of total population abundance. This effect is predicted when clones exhibit heritable variation in environmental optima and when fluctuations occur asynchronously among patches. We tested this in the field using artificial ponds and metapopulations composed of a diverse assemblage of Daphnia pulex clones. We directly manipulated dispersal presence/absence and environmental fluctuations in the form of nutrient pulses. Consistent with predictions, dispersal enhanced temporal asynchrony among clones in the presence of nutrient pulses; this in turn stabilized population dynamics. This effect only emerged when patches experienced spatially asynchronous nutrient pulses (dispersal had no effect when patches were synchronously pulsed). Clonal asynchrony was driven by strong positive selection for a single clone that exhibited a performance advantage under conditions of low resource availability. Our work highlights the importance of dispersal as a driver of eco-evolutionary dynamics and population stability in variable environments.     

Dispersal and spatial scale affect synchrony in spatial population dynamics

A large body of theoretical studies has shown that synchrony among populations is critical for the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. Although the effects of dispersal and environmental factors on synchrony have been investigated theoretically, empirical studies of these relationships have been lacking. We explored the interplay between environmental and demographic factors (fecundity, survival, dispersal) on population synchrony for 53 species of birds. We show that the interspecific differences in mean synchrony were determined by global environmental factors whose action was probably mediated by the abundance of each species. After removing the effect of these global factors on synchrony, the residual synchrony was strongly correlated with dispersal distance. The relationship between dispersal and synchrony was stronger for the species nesting in wet habitats than for those nesting in dry habitats. Our results indicate that different factors synchronize bird populations at different spatial scales, thus highlighting the role of scale in understanding spatial population dynamics and extinction risks.     

The influence of stage-dependent dispersal on the population dynamics of three amphipod species

In metapopulations, the maintenance of local populations can depend on source–sink dynamics, where populations with positive growth rate seed populations with negative growth rate. The pattern and probability of successful dispersal among habitats can therefore be crucial in determining whether local populations will become rare or increase in abundance. We present here data on the dispersal strategy and population dynamics of three marine amphipods living in pen shells (Atrina rigida) in the Gulf of Mexico. The three amphipod species in this study disperse at different life stages. Neomegamphopus hiatus and Melita nitida disperse as adults, while Bemlos unicornis disperses as juveniles. The two species that disperse as adults have the highest initial population sizes when a new shell becomes available, likely caused by the arriving females releasing their brood into these recently occupied shells. This dispersal pattern results in initially higher population growth, but fewer occupied shells, as noted by their clumped distribution. In contrast, the species that disperses as juveniles accumulates more slowly and more evenly across habitats, eventually dominating the other two in terms of numerical abundance. The metapopulation dynamics of the three species seems to be highly dependent on the life history stage involved in dispersal. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Are numbers enough? Colonizer phenotype and abundance interact to affect population dynamics

1. Ecologists have long recognized that the number of colonizers entering a population can be a major driver of population dynamics, but still struggle to explain why the importance of colonizer supply varies so dramatically. While there are indications that differences in the phenotype among dispersing individuals could also be important to populations, the role of phenotypic variation relative to the number of individuals, and the extent to which they interact, remains unknown. 2. We simultaneously manipulated the phenotype (dispersal duration) and abundance of settlers of a marine bryozoan and measured subsequent population structure in the field. 3. Increases in the number of colonizing individuals increased the subsequent recruitment and biomass of populations, regardless of colonizer phenotype. However, the relationship between colonizer abundance and the subsequent reproductive yield of the population was strongly reduced in populations containing individuals that had long dispersal durations. 4. The interactive effects of colonizer phenotype and abundance on the reproductive yield of populations occurred because longer dispersal durations decreased the proportion of individuals that reproduced. In fact, populations established from a few individuals with short dispersal durations had similar reproductive yield to populations c. 30 times larger established from individuals with long dispersal durations. 5. Interactions between colonizer phenotype and abundance have important implications for predicting population dynamics beyond those previously provided by numerical abundance or recruit phenotype alone.     

Spatial and temporal scale of density-dependent body growth and its implications for recruitment, population dynamics and management of stream-dwelling salmonid populations

Density-dependent variations in body growth and size have important consequences for the population dynamics of stream-dwelling salmonid populations, since body size is related to a variety of ecologically relevant characteristics. These include survival and fecundity, competitive and predatory abilities, and foraging behavior. However, little work has been done to understand how density-dependent body growth varies across temporal and spatial scales and when this compensatory process is relevant for recruitment and population dynamics of stream-dwelling salmonids. Increased intra- or inter-cohort competition reduces growth rates of juveniles. Both within- and among-cohort differences at the juvenile stage are likely to be maintained through the lifetime. Limited movement or dispersal can lead to subdivision of a population into several local populations with independent dynamics. The spatial and temporal variation in movement and the patchy distribution of resources make fish likely to experience density-dependence across location, life-stage, and season. The relaxation of density-dependent suppression of body growth at low densities constitutes a potential mechanism for salmonids to persist in the face of environmental perturbation and may contribute to explaining the peculiar resilience to population collapses often showed by salmonids. The inclusion of density-dependent growth in population models may increase the usefulness of model predictions in management contexts. Models not accounting for density-dependent growth may underestimate the recovery potential of resident salmonid populations when they collapse to low densities.     

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.     

Density-dependent dispersal and relative dispersal affect the stability of predator-prey metacommunities

Although density-dependent dispersal and relative dispersal (the difference in dispersal rates between species) have been documented in natural systems, their effects on the stability of metacommunities are poorly understood. Here we investigate the effects of intra- and interspecific density-dependent dispersal on the regional stability in a predator-prey metacommunity model. We show that, when the dynamics of the populations reach equilibrium, the stability of the metacommunity is not affected by density-dependent dispersal. However, the regional stability, measured as the regional variability or the persistence, can be modified by density-dependent dispersal when local populations fluctuate over time. Moreover these effects depend on the relative dispersal of the predator and the prey. Regional stability is modified through changes in spatial synchrony. Interspecific density-dependent dispersal always desynchronizses local dynamics, whereas intraspecific density-dependent dispersal may either synchronize or desynchronize it depending on dispersal rates. Moreover, intra- and interspecific density-dependent dispersal strengthen the top-down control of the prey by the predator at intermediate dispersal rates. As a consequence the regional stability of the metacommunity is increased at intermediate dispersal rates. Our results show that density-dependent dispersal and relative dispersal of species are keys to understanding the response of ecosystems to fragmentation.     

Relative importance of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity for butterfly population dynamics

The relative contribution of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity to the temporal dynamics of animal populations is one of the central issues of ecology. In insects, the primary role of the latter factor, typically represented by weather patterns, is widely accepted. We have evaluated the impact of density dependence as well as density-independent factors, including weather and mowing regime, on annual fluctuations of butterfly populations. As model species, we used Maculinea alcon and M. teleius living in sympatry and, consequently, we also analysed the effect of their potential competition. Density dependence alone explained 62 and 42% of the variation in the year-to-year trends of M. alcon and M. teleius, respectively. The cumulative Akaike weight of models with density dependence, which can be interpreted as the probability that this factor should be contained in the most appropriate population dynamics model, exceeded 0.97 for both species. In contrast, the impacts of inter-specific competition, mowing regime and weather were much weaker, with their cumulative weights being in the range of 0.08–0.21; in addition, each of these factors explained only 2–5% of additional variation in Maculinea population trends. Our results provide strong evidence for density-dependent regulation in Maculinea, while the influence of environmental stochasticity is rather minor. In the light of several recent studies on other butterflies that detected significant density-dependent effects, it would appear that density-dependent regulation may be more widespread in this group than previously thought, while the role of environmental stochasticity has probably been overestimated. We suggest that this misconception is the result of deficiencies in the design of most butterfly population studies in the past, including (1) a strong focus on adults and a neglect of the larval stage in which density-dependent effects are most likely to occur; (2) an almost exclusive reliance on transect count results that may confound the impact of environmental stochasticity on butterfly numbers with its impact on adult longevity. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Spatial ecology of large herbivore populations

Models of the dynamics of large herbivore populations represent density feedbacks on the population growth rate either directly or indirectly through interactions with vegetation resources. Neither approach incorporates the spatial heterogeneity that is an essential feature of most natural environments, and modifies the population dynamics generated. This is especially true for large herbivores exploiting food resources that are rooted in space but temporally variable in quantity and quality both seasonally and annually. In this review I explore how environmental variation at different spatiotemporal scales influences the abundance of herbivore populations controlled via resources, predators or social mechanisms. Changes in abundance can be spatially disparate and dependent on different resource components at different stages of the seasonal cycle, including buffer resources restricting population crashes in extremely adverse years. GPS telemetry enables movement responses generating spatial patterns to be documented in fine spatiotemporal detail, including migration and dispersal. Models incorporating spatial heterogeneity either implicitly or explicitly are outlined, exemplifying how herbivores cope with temporal variability by exploiting spatial variability in resources and conditions. Global human dominance is generating widened climatic variation while opportunities for herbivore movements are becoming constricted. Theoretical population ecologists need to shift their focus from the workings of demographic structure towards effects of changing environmental contexts, in order to project the likely trajectories of large herbivore populations through the Anthropocene.     

The role of density-dependent dispersal in source-sink dynamics

I investigate two aspects of source-sink theory that have hitherto received little attention: density-dependent dispersal and the cost of dispersal to sources. The cost arises because emigration reduces the per capita growth rate of sources, thus predisposing them to extinction. I show that source-sink persistence depends critically on the interplay between these two factors. When the emigration rate increases with abundance at an accelerating rate, dispersal costs to sources is the lowest and risk of source-sink extinction the least. When the emigration rate increases with abundance at a decelerating rate, dispersal costs to sources is the highest and the risk of source-sink extinction the greatest. Density-independent emigration has an intermediate effect. Thus, density-dependent dispersal per se does not increase or decrease source-sink persistence relative to density-independent dispersal. The exact mode of dispersal is crucial. A key point to appreciate is that these effects of dispersal on source-sink extinction arise from the temporal density-dependence that dispersal induces in the per capita growth rates of source and sink populations. Temporal density-dependence due to dispersal is beneficial at low abundances because it rescues sinks from extinction, and detrimental at high abundances because it drives otherwise viable sources to extinction. These results are robust to the nature of population dynamics in the sink, whether exponential or logistic. They provide a means of assessing the relative costs and benefits of preserving sink habitats given three biological parameters.     

Strong density-dependent survival and recruitment regulate the abundance of a coral reef fish

Debate on the control of population dynamics in reef fishes has centred on whether patterns in abundance are determined by the supply of planktonic recruits, or by post-recruitment processes. Recruitment limitation implies little or no regulation of the reef-associated population, and is supported by several experimental studies that failed to detect density dependence. Previous manipulations of population density have, however, focused on juveniles, and there have been no tests for density-dependent interactions among adult reef fishes. I tested for population regulation in Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, a small, short-lived goby that is common in the Caribbean. Adult density was manipulated on artificial reefs and adults were also monitored on reefs where they varied in density naturally. Survival of adult gobies showed a strong inverse relationship with their initial density across a realistic range of densities. Individually marked gobies, however, grew at similar rates across all densities, suggesting that density-dependent survival was not associated with depressed growth, and so may result from predation or parasitism rather than from food shortage. Like adult survival, the accumulation of new recruits on reefs was also much lower at high adult densities than at low densities. Suppression of recruitment by adults may occur because adults cause either reduced larval settlement or reduced early post-settlement survival. In summary, this study has documented a previously unrecorded regulatory mechanism for reef fish populations (density-dependent adult mortality) and provided a particularly strong example of a well-established mechanism (density-dependent recruitment). In combination, these two compensatory mechanisms have the potential to strongly regulate the abundance of this species, and rule out the control of abundance by the supply of recruits.     

The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co-fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log-linear density-dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large-scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal-scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a ‘generalized Moran effect’, i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log-linear density-dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food-webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large-scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management.     

Disease propagation in connected host populations with density-dependent dynamics: the case of the Feline Leukemia Virus

Spatial heterogeneity is a strong determinant of host-parasite relationships, however local-scale mechanisms are often not elucidated. Generally speaking, in many circumstances dispersal is expected to increase disease persistence. We consider the case when host populations show density-dependent dynamics and are connected through the dispersal of individuals. Taking the domestic cats (Felis catus)--Feline Leukemia Virus (FeLV) as a toy model of host-microparasite system, we predict the disease dynamics when two host populations with distinct or similar structures are connected together and to the surrounding environment by dispersal. Our model brings qualitatively different predictions from one-population models. First, as expected, biologically realistic rates of dispersal may allow FeLV to persist in sets of populations where the virus would have gone extinct otherwise, but a reverse outcome is also possible: eradication of FeLV from a small population by connexion to a larger population where it is not persistent. Second, overall prevalence as well as depression of host population size due to infection are both enhanced by dispersal, even at low dispersal rates when disease persistence is not achieved in the two populations. This unexpected prediction is probably due to the combination of dispersal with density-dependent population dynamics. Third, the dispersal of non-infectious cats has more influence on virus prevalence than the dispersal of infectious. Finally, prevalence and depression of host population size are both related to the rate of dispersion, to the health status of individuals dispersing and to the dynamics of host populations.     

Evaluation of alternate harvesting strategies using experimental microcosms

Experimental evidence to evaluate alternate conservation policies for harvested populations is currently meager. We used populations of the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila growing in test tube microcosms to experimentally evaluate the effects of alternate harvesting policies in a controlled, replicable setting. Simple density-dependent models were effective in predicting patterns of ciliate population growth in the microcosms. We evaluated several univariate models, finding that a Ricker logistic model was a better predictor of ciliate population dynamics than Gompertz logistic, non-linear logistic, or random walk models. Using the Ricker logistic model as a demographic skeleton, we modeled ciliate population dynamics with respect to three alternate harvesting policies (fixed quota, fixed proportion, and fixed escapement), each conducted at four comparable levels of harvest intensity. The parameterized demographic models predicted that fixed quota harvesting would lead to lower mean ciliate abundance and higher temporal variability in ciliate abundance than fixed proportion or fixed escapement policies, with an appreciable risk of extinction, even under the controlled environmental conditions of our experimental system. For each harvesting policy, the intensity of harvest had demonstrable effects on population density. Population variability was higher for fixed quota harvesting than the other policies. The stochastic demographic model successfully predicted heightened extinction risk in the fixed quota system, relative to the other management treatments. Our experimental evidence lends support to the theoretical prediction that fixed quota harvesting is riskier than fixed proportion or fixed escapement policies.