Adaptation to host plants may prevent rapid insect responses to climate change

We must consider the role of multitrophic interactions when examining species' responses to climate change. Many plant species, particularly trees, are limited in their ability to shift their geographic ranges quickly under climate change. Consequently, for herbivorous insects, geographic mosaics of host plant specialization could prohibit range shifts and adaptation when insects become separated from suitable host plants. In this study, we examined larval growth and survival of an oak specialist butterfly (Erynnis propertius) on different oaks (Quercus spp.) that occur across its range to determine if individuals can switch host plants if they move into new areas under climate change. Individuals from Oregon and northern California, USA that feed on Q. garryana and Q. kelloggii in the field experienced increased mortality on Q. agrifolia, a southern species with low nutrient content. In contrast, populations from southern California that normally feed on Q. agrifolia performed well on Q. agrifolia and Q. garryana and poorly on the northern, high elevation Q. kelloggii. Therefore, colonization of southern E. propertius in higher elevations and some northern locales may be prohibited under climate change but latitudinal shifts to Q. garryana may be possible. Where shifts are precluded due to maladaptation to hosts, populations may not accrue warm‐adapted genotypes. Our study suggests that, when interacting species experience asynchronous range shifts, historical local adaptation may preclude populations from colonizing new locales under climate change.     

Response of nitrogen cycling to simulated climate change: differential responses along a subalpine ecotone

In situ nitrogen (N) transformations and N availability were examined over a four‐year period in two soil microclimates (xeric and mesic) under a climate‐warming treatment in a subalpine meadow/sagebrush scrub ecotone. Experimental plots that spanned the two soil microclimates were exposed to an in situ infrared (IR) climate change manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Although the two microclimates did not differ significantly in their rates of N transformations in the absence of heating, they differed significantly in their response to increased IR. Under a simulated warming in the sagebrush‐dominated xeric microclimate, gross N mineralization rates doubled and immobilization rates increased by up to 60% over the first 2 years of the study but declined to predisturbance rates by the fourth year. This temporal pattern of gross mineralization rates correlated with a decline in SOM. Concurrently, rates of net mineralization rates in the heated plots were 60% higher than the controls after the first year. There were no differences in gross or net nitrification rates with heating in the xeric soils. In contrast to the xeric microclimate, there were no significant effects of heating on any N transformation rates in the mesic microclimate. The differing responses in N cycling rates of the two microclimate to the increased IR is most certainly the result of differences in initial soil moisture conditions and vegetation type and cover.     

Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change

Population dynamics in the microbial food web are influenced by resource availability and predator/parasitism activities. Climatic changes, such as an increase in temperature and/or UV radiation, can also modify ecological systems in many ways. A series of enclosure experiments was conducted using natural microbial communities from a Mediterranean lagoon to assess the response of microbial communities to top-down control [grazing by heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF), viral lysis] and bottom-up control (nutrients) under various simulated climatic conditions (temperature and UV-B radiations). Different biological assemblages were obtained by separating bacteria and viruses from HNF by size fractionation which were then incubated in whirl-Pak bags exposed to an increase of 3°C and 20% UV-B above the control conditions for 96 h. The assemblages were also provided with an inorganic and organic nutrient supply. The data show (i) a clear nutrient limitation of bacterial growth under all simulated climatic conditions in the absence of HNF, (ii) a great impact of HNF grazing on bacteria irrespective of the nutrient conditions and the simulated climatic conditions, (iii) a significant decrease in burst size (BS) (number of intracellular lytic viruses per bacterium) and a significant increase of VBR (virus to bacterium ratio) in the presence of HNF, and (iv) a much larger temperature effect than UV-B radiation effect on the bacterial dynamics. These results show that top-down factors, essentially HNF grazing, control the dynamics of the lagoon bacterioplankton assemblage and that short-term simulated climate changes are only a secondary effect controlling microbial processes.     

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop‐growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop‐simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate‐change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate‐related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.     

Response of Saxifraga oppositifolia L. to simulated climate change at three contrasting latitudes

Saxifraga oppositifolia, a widespread circum-arctic and alpine plant species, was exposed to increased temperature at three ITEX sites of different latitudes: Val Bercla in the Swiss Alps (46°N), Latnjajaure in mid-alpine Northern Sweden (68°N), and Alexandra Fjord, Ellesmere Island (79°N) in the Canadian High Arctic. Phenology, growth, and reproduction were monitored for 2 or 3 consecutive years. Increased temperature had little influence on the phenology of S. oppositifolia , although flowering period was somewhat longer and pollination earlier in the experimental plots. A decrease in the density of flowers on each plant was noted at two sites over 3 years, with a slightly larger decrease in the warmed plots. The few changes observed in reproductive variables (e.g. fruit : flower ratio) are mostly assigned to increased shading by taller growing neighbouring plants of other species, thus limiting performance of the shade-intolerant S. oppositifolia . It is assumed that survival of this species, especially at the lower limits of its altitudinal and latitudinal distribution, will depend on seed dispersal to new, open habitats.     

Adaptation to climate change: contrasting patterns of thermal-reaction-norm evolution in Pacific versus Atlantic silversides

How organisms may adapt to rising global temperatures is uncertain, but concepts can emerge from studying adaptive physiological trait variations across existing spatial climate gradients. Many ectotherms, particularly fish, have evolved increasing genetic growth capacities with latitude (i.e. countergradient variation (CnGV) in growth), which are thought to be an adaptation primarily to strong gradients in seasonality. In contrast, evolutionary responses to gradients in mean temperature are often assumed to involve an alternative mode, 'thermal adaptation'. We measured thermal growth reaction norms in Pacific silverside populations (Atherinops affinis) occurring across a weak latitudinal temperature gradient with invariant seasonality along the North American Pacific coast. Instead of thermal adaptation, we found novel evidence for CnGV in growth, suggesting that CnGV is a ubiquitous mode of reaction-norm evolution in ectotherms even in response to weak spatial and, by inference, temporal climate gradients. A novel, large-scale comparison between ecologically equivalent Pacific versus Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) revealed how closely growth CnGV patterns reflect their respective climate gradients. While steep growth reaction norms and increasing growth plasticity with latitude in M. menidia mimicked the strong, highly seasonal Atlantic coastal gradient, shallow reaction norms and much smaller, latitude-independent growth plasticity in A. affinis resembled the weak Pacific latitudinal temperature gradient.     

典型高寒植物生长繁殖特征对模拟气候变化的短期响应

高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对气候变化的响应十分敏感但研究较少。在青藏高原东北的祁连山南麓坡地,于2007年沿3200～3800m海拔进行了植被的等距双向移栽实验并研究了典型高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对模拟气候变化的响应。结果表明,移栽样线年平均气温随海拔升高的递减率为0.51℃/100m。高寒植物移栽到高海拔后,其株高、基叶数、最大(小)叶面积等生长性状指标均发生显著变化,呈现出在3400m海拔处最高,其余3海拔处较低的趋势;而生殖枝数、花数和有性繁殖投入等生殖策略的响应则不明显,但具有随海拔升高而降低,最后在3800m处升高的变化。结果印证了气候变化对高寒植物生长性状的影响比生殖策略快速的假说。     

Response of grassland biomass production to simulated climate change and clipping along an elevation gradient

Changes in rainfall and temperature regimes are altering plant productivity in grasslands worldwide, and these climate change factors are likely to interact with grassland disturbances, particularly grazing. Understanding how plant production responds to both climate change and defoliation, and how this response varies among grassland types, is important for the long-term sustainability of grasslands. For 4 years, we manipulated temperature [ambient and increased using open-top chambers (OTC)], water (ambient, reduced using rainout shelters and increased using hand watering) and defoliation (clipped, and unclipped) in three grassland types along an elevation gradient. We monitored plant cover and biomass and found that OTC reduced biomass by 15 %, but clipping and water treatments interacted with each other and their effects varied in different grassland types. For example, total biomass did not decline in the higher elevation grasslands due to clipping, and water addition mitigated the effects of clipping on subordinate grasses in the lower grasslands. The response of total biomass was driven by dominant plant species while subordinate grasses and forbs showed more variable responses. Overall, our results demonstrate that biomass in the highest elevation grassland was least effected by the treatments and the response of biomass tended to be dependent on interactions between climate change treatments and defoliation. Together, the results suggest that ecosystem function of these grasslands under altered climate patterns will be dependent on site-specific management.     

Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest

Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961–2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid–warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.     

Responses of the clonal sedge, Carex bigelowii, to two seasons of simulated climate change

The effect of enhanced temperature was studied in open-top chambers on the arctic clonal sedge Carex bigelowii Torr. ex Schwein. at Latnjajaure Field Station, Swedish Lapland for two growing seasons. The flowering phenology of C. bigelowii accelerated during the first field season that the open-top chambers were erected. After the second season of perturbation the sexual reproductive investment was higher in the open-top chambers than in the controls and flowering phenology was still accelerated. Leaf phenology and the growth of vegetative tillers followed the same pattern in the open-top chambers as in the controls, but the leaves were longer in the open-top chambers from the end of June until the end of August. The results suggest that relatively late flowering clonal graminoids may be favoured by warmer climate, at least in the short term.     

Floral color change: a widespread functional convergence

Ontogenetic color changes in fully turgid flowers are widespread throughout the angiosperms, and in many cases are known to provide signals for pollinators. A broad survey of flowering plants demonstrates that such color changes appear in at least 77 diverse families. Color-changing taxa occur commonly within what are considered derived lineages, and only rarely in early or primitive groups. The pattern of distribution of floral color change across orders, families, genera, and species demonstrates that the occurrence of the phenomenon within a group is not simply a result of phylogenetic history. Color changes can affect the whole flower or they can be localized, affecting at least nine floral parts or regions. The scale of color change (localized or whole-flower) is broadly correlated with the type of pollinator that characteristically visits the plant. Color changes can come about through seven distinct physiological mechanisms, involving anthocyanins, carotenoids, and betalains. Color changes due to appearance of anthocyanin are the most common, occurring in 68 families. Floral color change has clearly evolved independently many times, most likely in response to selection by visually oriented pollinators, and reflects a widespread functional convergence within the angiosperms.     

Soil carbon storage under simulated climate change is mediated by plant functional type

The stability of soil organic matter (SOM) pools exposed to elevated CO₂ and warming has not been evaluated adequately in long‐term experiments and represents a substantial source of uncertainty in predicting ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We conducted a 6‐year experiment combining free‐air CO₂ enrichment (FACE, 550 ppm) and warming (+2 °C) to evaluate changes in SOM accumulation in native Australian grassland. In this system, competitive interactions appear to favor C₄ over C₃ species under FACE and warming. We therefore investigated the role of plant functional type (FT) on biomass and SOM responses to the long‐term treatments by carefully sampling soil under patches of C₃‐ and C₄‐dominated vegetation. We used physical fractionation to quantify particulate organic matter (POM) and long‐term incubation to assess potential decomposition rates. Aboveground production of C₄ grasses increased in response to FACE, but total root biomass declined. Across treatments, C : N ratios were higher in leaves, roots and POM of C₄ vegetation. CO₂ and temperature treatments interacted with FT to influence SOM, and especially POM, such that soil carbon was increased by warming under C₄ vegetation, but not in combination with elevated CO₂. Potential decomposition rates increased in response to FACE and decreased with warming, possibly owing to treatment effects on soil moisture and microbial community composition. Decomposition was also inversely correlated with root N concentration, suggesting increased microbial demand for older, N‐rich SOM in treatments with low root N inputs. This research suggests that C₃–C₄ vegetation responses to future climate conditions will strongly influence SOM storage in temperate grasslands.     

Response of epiphytic bryophytes to simulated N deposition in a subtropical montane cloud forest in southwestern China

A field manipulation experiment was conducted in a subtropical montane cloud forest in southwestern China to determine the possible responses of epiphytic bryophytes to increasing nitrogen (N) deposition from community to physiology level, and to find sensitive epiphytic bryophytes that may be used as indicators for assessing the degree of N pollution. N addition had significantly negative effects on species richness and cover of the epiphytic bryophyte community. Harmful effects of high N loads were recorded for chlorophyll, growth, and vitality of the species tested. The decline of some epiphytic bryophytes may result from detrimental effects on degradation to photosynthetic pigments. Bazzania himalayana (Mitt.) Schiffn., Bazzania ovistipula (Steph.) Mizut., and Homaliodendron flabellatum (Sm.) Fleisch. are candidates in atmospheric nitrogen monitoring. Epiphytic bryophytes in the montane cloud forest are very sensitive to increasing N deposition and often difficult to recover once they have been destroyed, providing early detection of enhanced N pollution for trees or even the whole forest ecosystem. The inference that increasing N pollution may lead to loss of biodiversity is a concern to the developing economy in western China, and should alert the government to the adverse impacts caused by increased industrial pollution during the process of China’s West Development.     

Harbour porpoises respond to climate change

The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and in particular on marine top predators are difficult to assess due to, among other things, spatial variability, and lack of clear delineation of marine habitats. The banks of West Greenland are located in a climate sensitive area and are likely to elicit pronounced responses to oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic. The recent increase in sea temperatures on the banks of West Greenland has had cascading effects on sea ice coverage, residency of top predators, and abundance of important prey species like Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Here, we report on the response of one of the top predators in West Greenland; the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). The porpoises depend on locating high densities of prey species with high nutritive value and they have apparently responded to the general warming on the banks of West Greenland by longer residence times, increased consumption of Atlantic cod resulting in improved body condition in the form of larger fat deposits in blubber, compared to the situation during a cold period in the 1990s. This is one of the few examples of a measurable effect of climate change on a marine mammal population.     

Adaptation of ecoinvent database to Polish conditions

Background, aims and scope

This paper is based on the results of a project sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and carried out by the Wood Technology Institute in Poznan, Poland. The main purpose of the project was to assess the environmental impact generated during the entire life cycles of chosen wood products. Most of the data came from the Polish wood industry, but some of it was taken from the ecoinvent database, particularly data relating to forest processes. The data were not used as presented in the database but were properly adapted. The aim of the paper is to show how the ecoinvent’s initial assumptions have been changed and how the data were adapted. The influence of the adaptation on the characterization results is presented as well.

Materials and methods

The adaptation was performed in several steps: obtaining information about the principal assumptions of the ecoinvent database, gathering data appropriate to Polish conditions, changing the principal assumptions to include the Polish situation, calculating the new allocation and correction factors, forming the new inventory tables for round, industrial, and residual wood (softwood and hardwood), and calculating the characterization results to check the influence of the data adaptation on the life cycle assessment (LCA) final results. The following methods have been used: the economic allocation with the allocation correction to include mass, energy, and carbon dioxide uptake from nature and Ecoindicator99 method to assess the environmental impact.

Results

The study shows that differences exist between ecoinvent and Polish data for the wood production. Some of the differences are important and significantly impact the final results. The data differ in relation to many factors, for example: tree species, yield of forest, time from planting trees to final harvesting, length and width of forest roads or total area, and land use. The differences in the initial assumptions and further in the allocation factors result in changes of the inventory points and the characterization results. The relevant differences for round hardwood and residual hardwood are not observed. It is not, however, the case of the industrial hardwood where the visible difference exist. The results for all sorts of softwood are completely different and any similarities cannot be observed.

Discussion

At present, the total area of forest land in Poland is 9.0 million ha. This is equivalent to 28.8% of the country’s area. This means that the forest processes are important for the country. The study could be a part of a more general discussion about the suitability of data recognized by the database’s generators as representative for larger areas (Europe, Asia, the world).

Conclusions

The following conclusions could be formulated based on the results of the project: differences between countries always exist, and they can be a source of uncertainty, particularly if unspecific data are used. On the other hand, it is impossible to collect specific data for all inventory items included in the product system which is why LCA databases are needed. The following questions should be asked: how important is the discrepancy? What is its influence on the final results? Is it acceptable? There are some activities like electricity production where differences between countries can be crucial for the LCA final results.

Recommendations and perspectives

Two main recommendations could be formulated: the data taken from LCA databases should always be critically analyzed and reviewed to check if they are suitable for our case study, and, if possible, the adaptation to local or national conditions should be made.In Poland, the interest in LCA continues to grow; however, it is not easy for LCA practitioners to conduct LCAs because of companies’ skepticism and their reluctance to provide data. LCA databases are important sources of information. A review of the most popular LCA databases could be a good line of further improvement to make LCA studies more relevant and reliable.