Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social–ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.     

Phylogeography of the widespread fern Lemmaphyllum in East Asia: species differentiation and population dynamics in response to change in climate and geography

Past climatic oscillations and complex geodynamic processes had tremendous effects on the current distributions of species in East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that spermatophytes experienced different demographic histories and survived in multiple refuges. However, very few studies involving ferns have been conducted over a large geographical area like East Asia. The monophyletic epiphytic fern genus Lemmaphyllum, which is composed of four species, is widespread in East Asia and offers a good model for exploring how geoclimatic oscillations influence the diversification and demographic history of fern species. We studied the phylogeography of Lemmaphyllum based on 115 populations using plastid sequences and ecological niche modeling. A total of 91 haplotypes were found in Lemmaphyllum. Molecular clock estimation revealed that speciation coincided with the three phases of the Qingzang Movement at beginning of the third uplift of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The “Tanaka-Kaiyong Line” demarcated lineages within L. carnosum. The split of the mainland and island lineages of L. rostratum and L. carnosum var. microphyllum may have resulted from ancestral isolation whereby land-bridges acted as a “barrier” rather than as a “corridor” between mainland and island lineages. Multiple glacial refuges such as Sichuan Basin, Jinggangshan region, YGG region, HDM region, and the islands of the China East Sea during the LGM were revealed. The entities of Lemmaphyllum experienced species-specific demographic histories in response to the Pleistocene climate change. The case study of epiphytic ferns may provide evidences for understanding the migration of evergreen broad-leaf forest under climate oscillation.     

Disentangling climate change from air pollution effects on epiphytic bryophytes

At the interface between atmosphere and vegetation, epiphytic floras have been largely used as indicators of air quality. The recovery of epiphytes from high levels of SO₂ pollution has resulted in major range changes, whose interpretation has, however, been challenged by concomitant variation in other pollutants as well as climate change. Here, we combine historical and contemporary information on epiphytic bryophyte species distributions, climatic conditions, and pollution loads since the 1980s in southern Belgium to disentangle the relative impact of climate change and air pollution on temporal shifts in species composition. The relationship between the temporal variation of species composition, climatic conditions, SO₂, NO₂, O₃, and fine particle concentrations, was analyzed by variation partitioning. The temporal shift in species composition was such, that it was, on average, more than twice larger than the change in species composition observed today among communities scattered across the study area. The main driver, contributing to 38% of this temporal shift in species composition, was the variation of air quality. Climate change alone did not contribute to the substantial compositional shifts in epiphytic bryophyte communities in the course of the last 40 years. As a consequence of the substantial drop of N and S loads over the last decades, present-day variations of epiphytic floras were, however, better explained by the spatial variation of climatic conditions than by extant pollution loads. The lack of any signature of recolonization delays of formerly polluted areas in the composition of modern floras suggests that epiphytic bryophytes efficiently disperse at the landscape scale. We suggest that a monitoring of epiphyte communities at 10-year intervals would be desirable to assess the impact of raising pollution sources, and especially pesticides, whose impact on bryophytes remains poorly documented.     

Nowhere to go: Potential distribution shifts of a widespread lizard under two climate change scenarios

Species range shifts under climate change scenarios are caused by many factors. An integrative approach combining demographic distribution models (DDMs) and correlative models can provide key information for making accurate predictions, especially for widespread species occupying diverse environments. Sceloporus grammicus is a lizard that occurs widely in North America and shows variation in its life history traits among environments. Here we assessed future changes in the distribution of S. grammicus in Mexico using mechanistic, correlative, and hybrid models, under two (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) contrasting climate change scenarios, based on two General Circulation Models (GCM: ACCESS 1.0 and MIROC5). We measured the snout-vent length (SVL) of individuals of S. grammicus from 11 populations from central Mexico and input this trait as an indicator of vital rates into integral projection models (IPMs). We used the IPMs to calculate the growth rate (λ) of each population; we then modeled λ as a function of temperature to project λ across a temperature raster layer of Mexico. The correlative models were built using occurrence records of S. grammicus and the key environmental variables. For each scenario and GCM, we first built a map that displayed λ values (> 0.9) across the country; we then built a map that showed habitat suitability probability. We then overlaid the results of these two maps to build a map displaying presence/absence. In general, the results revealed that sites with high habitat suitability probability and λ > 0.9 will decrease under both climate change scenarios, with the decrease being more severe in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. Outputs were similar for all projections. Our results predict a range contraction to higher and cooler places such as mountainous zones and were more restrictive under the hybrid approach. The use of this hybrid approach can overcome the weaknesses of correlative models and DDMs. This is the first study to project a range contraction for this species, and the results are consistent with previous observations of other species exhibiting distributional shifts towards the poles or upwards in elevation as the climate warms. However, S. grammicus may overcome the negative effects of climate change via its plasticity in habitat use, thermal preferences, and life history traits.     

Adaptation to host plants may prevent rapid insect responses to climate change

We must consider the role of multitrophic interactions when examining species' responses to climate change. Many plant species, particularly trees, are limited in their ability to shift their geographic ranges quickly under climate change. Consequently, for herbivorous insects, geographic mosaics of host plant specialization could prohibit range shifts and adaptation when insects become separated from suitable host plants. In this study, we examined larval growth and survival of an oak specialist butterfly (Erynnis propertius) on different oaks (Quercus spp.) that occur across its range to determine if individuals can switch host plants if they move into new areas under climate change. Individuals from Oregon and northern California, USA that feed on Q. garryana and Q. kelloggii in the field experienced increased mortality on Q. agrifolia, a southern species with low nutrient content. In contrast, populations from southern California that normally feed on Q. agrifolia performed well on Q. agrifolia and Q. garryana and poorly on the northern, high elevation Q. kelloggii. Therefore, colonization of southern E. propertius in higher elevations and some northern locales may be prohibited under climate change but latitudinal shifts to Q. garryana may be possible. Where shifts are precluded due to maladaptation to hosts, populations may not accrue warm‐adapted genotypes. Our study suggests that, when interacting species experience asynchronous range shifts, historical local adaptation may preclude populations from colonizing new locales under climate change.     

Response of nitrogen cycling to simulated climate change: differential responses along a subalpine ecotone

In situ nitrogen (N) transformations and N availability were examined over a four‐year period in two soil microclimates (xeric and mesic) under a climate‐warming treatment in a subalpine meadow/sagebrush scrub ecotone. Experimental plots that spanned the two soil microclimates were exposed to an in situ infrared (IR) climate change manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Although the two microclimates did not differ significantly in their rates of N transformations in the absence of heating, they differed significantly in their response to increased IR. Under a simulated warming in the sagebrush‐dominated xeric microclimate, gross N mineralization rates doubled and immobilization rates increased by up to 60% over the first 2 years of the study but declined to predisturbance rates by the fourth year. This temporal pattern of gross mineralization rates correlated with a decline in SOM. Concurrently, rates of net mineralization rates in the heated plots were 60% higher than the controls after the first year. There were no differences in gross or net nitrification rates with heating in the xeric soils. In contrast to the xeric microclimate, there were no significant effects of heating on any N transformation rates in the mesic microclimate. The differing responses in N cycling rates of the two microclimate to the increased IR is most certainly the result of differences in initial soil moisture conditions and vegetation type and cover.     

Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change

Population dynamics in the microbial food web are influenced by resource availability and predator/parasitism activities. Climatic changes, such as an increase in temperature and/or UV radiation, can also modify ecological systems in many ways. A series of enclosure experiments was conducted using natural microbial communities from a Mediterranean lagoon to assess the response of microbial communities to top-down control [grazing by heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF), viral lysis] and bottom-up control (nutrients) under various simulated climatic conditions (temperature and UV-B radiations). Different biological assemblages were obtained by separating bacteria and viruses from HNF by size fractionation which were then incubated in whirl-Pak bags exposed to an increase of 3°C and 20% UV-B above the control conditions for 96 h. The assemblages were also provided with an inorganic and organic nutrient supply. The data show (i) a clear nutrient limitation of bacterial growth under all simulated climatic conditions in the absence of HNF, (ii) a great impact of HNF grazing on bacteria irrespective of the nutrient conditions and the simulated climatic conditions, (iii) a significant decrease in burst size (BS) (number of intracellular lytic viruses per bacterium) and a significant increase of VBR (virus to bacterium ratio) in the presence of HNF, and (iv) a much larger temperature effect than UV-B radiation effect on the bacterial dynamics. These results show that top-down factors, essentially HNF grazing, control the dynamics of the lagoon bacterioplankton assemblage and that short-term simulated climate changes are only a secondary effect controlling microbial processes.     

Simulating climate change: temperature extremes but not means diminish performance in a widespread butterfly

Climate-change induced shifts in species’ temporal and geographic niches have been well documented, while plastic and genetic responses to climatic change have received much less attention. Plastic responses to changes in temperature are generally well understood, though most experimental studies to date have used constant temperature regimes, the reliability of which is under debate. We here investigate plastic responses in the widespread butterfly Pieris napi to simulated climate change, using ecologically realistic diurnal temperature cycles and current and predicted temperature regimes including effects of a heat wave. Increasing the temperature mean by 3 °C predominantly affected developmental times, cold resistance and adult life span, while an increase in the diurnal temperature amplitude had very little effects. Immune function responded only weakly to different thermal regimes. The simulation of a prolonged heat wave severely impaired juvenile survival, body size and longevity, supporting the wide-held notion that extreme weather events will be much more important for species’ performance and local survival than moderate increases in temperature means. Given that the frequency of extreme weather events is predicted to increase with climate change, even widespread species may be negatively affected.     

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop‐growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop‐simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate‐change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate‐related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.     

Response of Saxifraga oppositifolia L. to simulated climate change at three contrasting latitudes

Saxifraga oppositifolia, a widespread circum-arctic and alpine plant species, was exposed to increased temperature at three ITEX sites of different latitudes: Val Bercla in the Swiss Alps (46°N), Latnjajaure in mid-alpine Northern Sweden (68°N), and Alexandra Fjord, Ellesmere Island (79°N) in the Canadian High Arctic. Phenology, growth, and reproduction were monitored for 2 or 3 consecutive years. Increased temperature had little influence on the phenology of S. oppositifolia , although flowering period was somewhat longer and pollination earlier in the experimental plots. A decrease in the density of flowers on each plant was noted at two sites over 3 years, with a slightly larger decrease in the warmed plots. The few changes observed in reproductive variables (e.g. fruit : flower ratio) are mostly assigned to increased shading by taller growing neighbouring plants of other species, thus limiting performance of the shade-intolerant S. oppositifolia . It is assumed that survival of this species, especially at the lower limits of its altitudinal and latitudinal distribution, will depend on seed dispersal to new, open habitats.     

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.     

Adaptation to climate change: contrasting patterns of thermal-reaction-norm evolution in Pacific versus Atlantic silversides

How organisms may adapt to rising global temperatures is uncertain, but concepts can emerge from studying adaptive physiological trait variations across existing spatial climate gradients. Many ectotherms, particularly fish, have evolved increasing genetic growth capacities with latitude (i.e. countergradient variation (CnGV) in growth), which are thought to be an adaptation primarily to strong gradients in seasonality. In contrast, evolutionary responses to gradients in mean temperature are often assumed to involve an alternative mode, 'thermal adaptation'. We measured thermal growth reaction norms in Pacific silverside populations (Atherinops affinis) occurring across a weak latitudinal temperature gradient with invariant seasonality along the North American Pacific coast. Instead of thermal adaptation, we found novel evidence for CnGV in growth, suggesting that CnGV is a ubiquitous mode of reaction-norm evolution in ectotherms even in response to weak spatial and, by inference, temporal climate gradients. A novel, large-scale comparison between ecologically equivalent Pacific versus Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) revealed how closely growth CnGV patterns reflect their respective climate gradients. While steep growth reaction norms and increasing growth plasticity with latitude in M. menidia mimicked the strong, highly seasonal Atlantic coastal gradient, shallow reaction norms and much smaller, latitude-independent growth plasticity in A. affinis resembled the weak Pacific latitudinal temperature gradient.     

Response of grassland biomass production to simulated climate change and clipping along an elevation gradient

Changes in rainfall and temperature regimes are altering plant productivity in grasslands worldwide, and these climate change factors are likely to interact with grassland disturbances, particularly grazing. Understanding how plant production responds to both climate change and defoliation, and how this response varies among grassland types, is important for the long-term sustainability of grasslands. For 4 years, we manipulated temperature [ambient and increased using open-top chambers (OTC)], water (ambient, reduced using rainout shelters and increased using hand watering) and defoliation (clipped, and unclipped) in three grassland types along an elevation gradient. We monitored plant cover and biomass and found that OTC reduced biomass by 15 %, but clipping and water treatments interacted with each other and their effects varied in different grassland types. For example, total biomass did not decline in the higher elevation grasslands due to clipping, and water addition mitigated the effects of clipping on subordinate grasses in the lower grasslands. The response of total biomass was driven by dominant plant species while subordinate grasses and forbs showed more variable responses. Overall, our results demonstrate that biomass in the highest elevation grassland was least effected by the treatments and the response of biomass tended to be dependent on interactions between climate change treatments and defoliation. Together, the results suggest that ecosystem function of these grasslands under altered climate patterns will be dependent on site-specific management.     

典型高寒植物生长繁殖特征对模拟气候变化的短期响应

高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对气候变化的响应十分敏感但研究较少。在青藏高原东北的祁连山南麓坡地,于2007年沿3200～3800m海拔进行了植被的等距双向移栽实验并研究了典型高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对模拟气候变化的响应。结果表明,移栽样线年平均气温随海拔升高的递减率为0.51℃/100m。高寒植物移栽到高海拔后,其株高、基叶数、最大(小)叶面积等生长性状指标均发生显著变化,呈现出在3400m海拔处最高,其余3海拔处较低的趋势;而生殖枝数、花数和有性繁殖投入等生殖策略的响应则不明显,但具有随海拔升高而降低,最后在3800m处升高的变化。结果印证了气候变化对高寒植物生长性状的影响比生殖策略快速的假说。     

Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest

Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961–2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid–warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.