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Correlative ecological niche models are increasingly used to estimate potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for biogeographical research. In the case of presence‐background/pseudoabsences techniques, cold environments that are poorly represented in existing geography can complicate the process of model calibration and transfer into more extreme cold environments that were very common during the LGM (non‐analog conditions). This may lead to biologically unrealistic estimations. Using one cold‐adapted North American mammal, we explore a real scenario to better understand the effect of restricting the range of environmental conditions over which niche models are calibrated and then transferred to LGM conditions. We performed two sets of experiments in Maxent: 1) we calibrated models in the context of only present‐day climate conditions, which is the most common practice, and compared predictions under LGM conditions based on two extrapolation methods (clamping versus unconstrained); 2) we calibrated single models using both present‐day and LGM conditions as part of the same background in order to include more extreme environments in the model calibration. Our experiments led to dramatically different estimates of species’ potential distributions, showing notable differences with respect to latitudinal and elevational shifts during the LGM. Models calibrated using present‐day climates yielded biologically unrealistic estimations, suggesting that species survived in the glaciers during the LGM. Even more unrealistic estimations were achieved when clamping was enforced as the method to extrapolate. Models calibrated in the context of both modern and past climates reduced the required degree of extrapolation and allowed more realistic potential distributions, suggesting that the species avoided extremely cold conditions during the LGM. This study alerts to the possibility of obtaining implausible potential distributions during the LGM due to restricted background datasets and offers recommendations that should promote better strategies to estimate distributional changes during glaciations. 相似文献
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Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion. 相似文献
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Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia. 相似文献
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Stefan Prost Robert P. Guralnick Eric Waltari Vadim B. Fedorov Elena Kuzmina Nickolay Smirnov Thijs van Kolfschoten Klaas Vrieling 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(6):1854-1864
According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so‐far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow‐skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model‐testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow‐skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. 相似文献
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Angela Nava‐Bolaos Rosa A. Snchez‐Guilln Maren Wellenreuther Jesús Muoz Mnica Torres‐Pachn Rodolfo Novelo‐Gutirrez Alex Crdoba‐Aguilar 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2019,12(5):427-436
- Climate change is a key stressor for species. Two major consequences of climate‐induced range shifts are the formation of new areas of geographic overlap (i.e. sympatry) and an increased probability of hybridisation in the de novo created contact zones.
- One method to effectively quantify the potential of hybridisation is to integrate ecological niche modelling and the propensity to hybridisation based on genetic divergence. In this paper, we have applied this methodology to predict hybridisation outcomes following different scenarios of climate change in 30 species of Argia damselflies.
- We (i) investigated how climate change may affect species’ distributions; (ii) quantified if changed distributions generate new areas of sympatry between species; (iii) calculated the propensity to hybridise based on genetic divergence between species; and (iv) integrated these data to predict the future potential of species to hybridise.
- We found that the distribution of 29 of the 30 species was affected by a change in climate which led to a general increase in sympatric overlap among species. The degree of genetic divergence among the 108 species’ combinations ranged from 0.06% to 0.36%. Based on the sympatric overlap and genetic divergence, it can be predicted that 97 of the species pairs are likely to hybridise in the future.
- Our results are useful to forecast how highly diverse and closely related groups, such as Argia damselflies, may respond to a change in climate and how this can impact the potential of species mixing under a scenario of increased global warming.
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The volcanic island of Grand Comoro, Malagasy biogeographic region, is inhabited by three species of Phelsuma day geckos; two island‐endemic taxa (Phelsuma comorensis and Phelsuma v‐nigra comoraegrandensis) and the introduced Phelsuma dubia. Phelsuma comorensis is restricted to elevations of greater than 150 m above sea level on the northern of the island's two volcanoes and is the only Phelsuma above 300 m. The other species are widespread at low elevations but also reach levels above 900 m at the southern volcano. To investigate these divergent distribution patterns, we used environmental niche models based on climate and habitat data and tested whether predicted climate change may influence species distributions. Analyses of niche overlap did not show significant differences between present‐day and predicted future potential distributions of any Phelsuma species studied, which could be seen as an indicator of resilience towards climate change. Climate models reflected the restricted distribution of P. comorensis with precipitation of the wettest month detected as most important variable, whereas habitat models predicted an island‐wide distribution. While climate appears to determine the distribution of P. comorensis, we propose isolation by migration barriers as an alternative and discuss the detection of causal versus spurious relationships in ecological niche models. 相似文献
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Hannah E. Aichelman Joseph E. Townsend Travis A. Courtney Justin H. Baumann Sarah W. Davies Karl D. Castillo 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(18):6758-6769
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration have caused global average sea surface temperature (SST) to increase by approximately 0.11°C per decade between 1971 and 2010 – a trend that is projected to continue through the 21st century. A multitude of research studies have demonstrated that increased SSTs compromise the coral holobiont (cnidarian host and its symbiotic algae) by reducing both host calcification and symbiont density, among other variables. However, we still do not fully understand the role of heterotrophy in the response of the coral holobiont to elevated temperature, particularly for temperate corals. Here, we conducted a pair of independent experiments to investigate the influence of heterotrophy on the response of the temperate scleractinian coral Oculina arbuscula to thermal stress. Colonies of O. arbuscula from Radio Island, North Carolina, were exposed to four feeding treatments (zero, low, moderate, and high concentrations of newly hatched Artemia sp. nauplii) across two independent temperature experiments (average annual SST (20°C) and average summer temperature (28°C) for the interval 2005–2012) to quantify the effects of heterotrophy on coral skeletal growth and symbiont density. Results suggest that heterotrophy mitigated both reduced skeletal growth and decreased symbiont density observed for unfed corals reared at 28°C. This study highlights the importance of heterotrophy in maintaining coral holobiont fitness under thermal stress and has important implications for the interpretation of coral response to climate change. 相似文献
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Robert D. Hollister Jeremy L. May Kelseyann S. Kremers Craig E. Tweedie Steven F. Oberbauer Jennifer A. Liebig Timothy F. Botting Robert T. Barrett Jessica L. Gregory 《Ecology and evolution》2015,5(9):1881-1895
Few studies have clearly linked long‐term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long‐term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. 相似文献
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Lázaro Guevara Beth E. Gerstner Jamie M. Kass Robert P. Anderson 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(4):1511-1522
There is an urgent need for more ecologically realistic models for better predicting the effects of climate change on species’ potential geographic distributions. Here we build ecological niche models using MAXENT and test whether selecting predictor variables based on biological knowledge and selecting ecologically realistic response curves can improve cross‐time distributional predictions. We also evaluate how the method chosen for extrapolation into nonanalog conditions affects the prediction. We do so by estimating the potential distribution of a montane shrew (Mammalia, Soricidae, Cryptotis mexicanus) at present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Because it is tightly associated with cloud forests (with climatically determined upper and lower limits) whose distributional shifts are well characterized, this species provides clear expectations of plausible vs. implausible results. Response curves for the MAXENT model made using variables selected via biological justification were ecologically more realistic compared with those of the model made using many potential predictors. This strategy also led to much more plausible geographic predictions for upper and lower elevational limits of the species both for the present and during the LGM. By inspecting the modeled response curves, we also determined the most appropriate way to extrapolate into nonanalog environments, a previously overlooked factor in studies involving model transfer. This study provides intuitive context for recommendations that should promote more realistic ecological niche models for transfer across space and time. 相似文献
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Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process‐oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km2 of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km2 is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands. 相似文献
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Lzaro Guevara Juan J. Morrone Livia Len‐Paniagua 《Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research》2019,57(1):113-126
Ecological niche models (ENM) have been used to reconstruct potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)—or other time periods—and this use is increasingly common in zoological studies. For this reason, we urgently need understanding factors affecting these predictions. Here, we examine how the use of different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) affects the variability in species' potential distributions during the LGM and how the degree of model extrapolation and its associated uncertainty depends on the GCM used. We develop these issues using two North American shrews, Notiosorex crawfordi and Cryptotis alticola, inhabiting two environmentally different regions. First, we compared paleoclimates in these two regions simulated by three GCMs: Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), and the Max‐Planck‐Institute für Meteorologie model (MPI). Then, we used maxent to estimate the LGM potential distribution of these two mammals under the three GCMs to assess the spatial variability and extrapolation uncertainty associated with idiosyncrasies of GCM. MIROC estimated noticeably more different climatic conditions than CCSM and MPI in the study areas during the LGM, and its pattern of environmental conditions was distributed differently. The MIROC scenario suggested a remarkable different prediction of potential distribution for both species, being more dramatic for the high mountain shrew, C. alticola. In particular, climatic differences among GCMs resulted in differences in the factors that limit and drive the potential distribution of the species during the LGM. Equally dramatic was the disagreement of extrapolation areas among GCMs. MIROC showed a greater number of pixels where extrapolation is required in both regions. Our findings should be taken into consideration when identifying areas of endemism, dynamic geographic barriers, and glacial refugia. When projecting into alternative scenarios of LGM climate, the idiosyncrasies of each GCM should be explicitly taken into account. 相似文献
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Little is known about direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under field conditions. In a field experiment, we investigated the response of mycorrhization to drought and heavy rain in grassland communities. We quantified AMF biomass in soil, mycorrhization of roots of the grass Holcus lanatus and the forb Plantago lanceolata, as well as plant performance. Plants were grown in four‐species communities with or without a legume. We hypothesised that drought increases and heavy rain decreases mycorrhization, and that higher mycorrhization will be linked to improved stress resistance and higher biomass production. Soil AMF biomass increased under both weather extremes. Heavy rain generally benefitted plants and increased arbuscules in P. lanceolata. Drought neither reduced plant performance nor root mycorrhization. Arbuscules increased in H. lanatus several weeks after drought, and in P. lanceolata several weeks after heavy rain spells. These long‐lasting effects of weather events on mycorrhization highlight the indirect influence of climate on AMF via their host plant. Legume presence increased plant community biomass, but had only minor effects on mycorrhization. Arbuscule colonisation was negatively correlated with senescence during the dry summer. Mycorrhization and biomass production in P. lanceolata were positively related. However, increased mycorrhization was related to less biomass in the grass. AMF mycelium in soil might generally increase under extreme events, root colonisation, however, is host species specific. This might amplify community shifts in grassland under climate change by further increasing stress resistance of species that already benefit from changed precipitation. 相似文献
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Sean M. P. Cahoon Patrick F. Sullivan Gaius R. Shaver Jeffrey M. Welker Eric Post 《Ecology letters》2012,15(12):1415-1422
Arctic and Boreal terrestrial ecosystems are important components of the climate system because they contain vast amounts of soil carbon (C). Evidence suggests that deciduous shrubs are increasing in abundance, but the implications for ecosystem C budgets remain uncertain. Using midsummer CO2 flux data from 21 sites spanning 16° of latitude in the Arctic and Boreal biomes, we show that air temperature explains c. one‐half of the variation in ecosystem respiration (ER) and that ER drives the pattern in net ecosystem CO2 exchange across ecosystems. Woody sites were slightly stronger C sinks compared with herbaceous communities. However, woody sites with warm soils (> 10 °C) were net sources of CO2, whereas woody sites with cold soils (< 10 °C) were strong sinks. Our results indicate that transition to a shrub‐dominated Arctic will increase the rate of C cycling, and may lead to net C loss if soil temperatures rise. 相似文献
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Sheng‐Hong Wang Lei Bao Tian‐Ming Wang Hong‐Fang Wang Jian‐Ping Ge 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(10):3311-3324
Climate oscillations are the key factors to understand the patterns in modern biodiversity. East Asia harbors the most diverse temperate flora, largely because an extensive terrestrial ice cap was absent during repeated Pleistocene glaciation–interglacial cycles. Comparing the demographic histories of species that are codistributed and are close relatives may provide insight into how the process of climate change influences species ranges. In this study, we compared the spatial genetic structure and demographic histories of two coexisting Eleutherococcus species, Eleutherococcus senticosus and E. sessiliflorus. Both species are distributed in northern China, regions that are generally considered to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. These regions once hosted temperate forest, but this temperate forest was replaced by tundra and taiga forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), according to pollen records. Using three chloroplast DNA fragments, we assessed the genetic structure of 20 and 9 natural populations of E. senticosus and E. sessiliflorus, respectively. Extremely contrasting genetic patterns were found between the two species; E. sessiliflorus had little genetic variation, whereas E. senticosus had considerably higher levels of genetic variation (15 haplotypes). We speculated that a recent severe bottleneck may have resulted in the extremely low genetic diversity in E. sessiliflorus. In E. senticosus, populations in Northeast China (NEC) harbored all of the haplotypes found in this species and included private haplotypes. The populations in NEC had higher levels of genetic diversity than did those from North China (NC). Therefore, we suggest that both the NC and NEC regions can sustain LGM refugia and that lineage admixture from multiple refugia took place after the LGM elevated the local genetic diversity in NEC. In NEC, multiple genetic hot spots were found in the Changbai Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Range, which implied that multiple locations in NEC may sustain LGM refugia, even in the Xiaoxing'an Range. 相似文献
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Luis E. Escobar Huijie Qiao Javier Cabello A. Townsend Peterson 《Ecology and evolution》2018,8(10):4757-4770
Many previous studies have attempted to assess ecological niche modeling performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approaches, even though diverse problems with this metric have been pointed out in the literature. We explored different evaluation metrics based on independent testing data using the Darwin's Fox (Lycalopex fulvipes) as a detailed case in point. Six ecological niche models (ENMs; generalized linear models, boosted regression trees, Maxent, GARP, multivariable kernel density estimation, and NicheA) were explored and tested using six evaluation metrics (partial ROC, Akaike information criterion, omission rate, cumulative binomial probability), including two novel metrics to quantify model extrapolation versus interpolation (E‐space index I) and extent of extrapolation versus Jaccard similarity (E‐space index II). Different ENMs showed diverse and mixed performance, depending on the evaluation metric used. Because ENMs performed differently according to the evaluation metric employed, model selection should be based on the data available, assumptions necessary, and the particular research question. The typical ROC AUC evaluation approach should be discontinued when only presence data are available, and evaluations in environmental dimensions should be adopted as part of the toolkit of ENM researchers. Our results suggest that selecting Maxent ENM based solely on previous reports of its performance is a questionable practice. Instead, model comparisons, including diverse algorithms and parameterizations, should be the sine qua non for every study using ecological niche modeling. ENM evaluations should be developed using metrics that assess desired model characteristics instead of single measurement of fit between model and data. The metrics proposed herein that assess model performance in environmental space (i.e., E‐space indices I and II) may complement current methods for ENM evaluation. 相似文献