Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key “early warning signs” about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37‐year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate‐driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age‐structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70‐year time window (2015–2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., “thermoneutral”) summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%–86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate‐linked bottom‐up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.     

Predation by polyphagous carabid beetles on eggs of a pest slug: Potential implications of climate change

Harpalus rufipes and Poecilus cupreus are two widespread polyphagous carabids which are known to destroy eggs of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the laboratory. To examine the effect of temperature on the predation of the eggs of D. reticulatum by H. rufipes and P. cupreus, a laboratory experiment with different temperatures and a semi‐field experiment including simulated warming were performed. In both experiments, H. rufipes killed more eggs than P. cupreus, and the predatory activity of the former increased significantly with increasing temperature. To our knowledge, this is the first study on predatory activity of polyphagous carabids on the eggs of a pest slug performed under a climate warming scenario. Results suggest that biological pest control performed by polyphagous carabids such as H. rufipes upon pest slugs may be enhanced under predicted climate warming conditions.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.     

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.     

How shrub encroachment under climate change could threaten pollination services for alpine wildflowers: A case study using the alpine skypilot,Polemonium viscosum

Under climate change, shrubs encroaching into high altitude plant communities disrupt ecosystem processes. Yet effects of encroachment on pollination mutualisms are poorly understood. Here, we probe potential fitness impacts of interference from encroaching Salix (willows) on pollination quality of the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum. Overlap in flowering time of Salix and Polemonium is a precondition for interference and was surveyed in four extant and 25 historic contact zones. Pollinator sharing was ascertained from observations of willow pollen on bumble bees visiting Polemonium flowers and on Polemonium pistils. We probed fitness effects of pollinator sharing by measuring the correlation between Salix pollen contamination and seed set in naturally pollinated Polemonium. To ascertain whether Salix interference occurred during or after pollination, we compared seed set under natural pollination, conspecific pollen addition, and Salix pollen addition. In current and past contact zones Polemonium and Salix overlapped in flowering time. After accounting for variance in flowering date due to latitude, Salix and Polemonium showed similar advances in flowering under warmer summers. This trend supports the idea that sensitivity to temperature promotes reproductive synchrony in both species. Salix pollen is carried by bumble bees when visiting Polemonium flowers and accounts for up to 25% of the grains on Polemonium pistils. Salix contamination correlates with reduced seed set in nature and when applied experimentally. Postpollination processes likely mediate these deleterious effects as seed set in nature was not limited by pollen delivery. Synthesis: As willows move higher with climate change, we predict that they will drive postpollination interference, reducing the fitness benefits of pollinator visitation for Polemonium and selecting for traits that reduce pollinator sharing.     

Phenological change in a spring ephemeral: implications for pollination and plant reproduction

Climate change has had numerous ecological effects, including species range shifts and altered phenology. Altering flowering phenology often affects plant reproduction, but the mechanisms behind these changes are not well‐understood. To investigate why altering flowering phenology affects plant reproduction, we manipulated flowering phenology of the spring herb Claytonia lanceolata (Portulacaceae) using two methods: in 2011–2013 by altering snow pack (snow‐removal vs. control treatments), and in 2013 by inducing flowering in a greenhouse before placing plants in experimental outdoor arrays (early, control, and late treatments). We measured flowering phenology, pollinator visitation, plant reproduction (fruit and seed set), and pollen limitation. Flowering occurred approx. 10 days earlier in snow‐removal than control plots during all years of snow manipulation. Pollinator visitation patterns and strength of pollen limitation varied with snow treatments, and among years. Plants in the snow removal treatment were more likely to experience frost damage, and frost‐damaged plants suffered low reproduction despite lack of pollen limitation. Plants in the snow removal treatment that escaped frost damage had higher pollinator visitation rates and reproduction than controls. The results of the array experiment supported the results of the snow manipulations. Plants in the early and late treatments suffered very low reproduction due either to severe frost damage (early treatment) or low pollinator visitation (late treatment) relative to control plants. Thus, plants face tradeoffs with advanced flowering time. While early‐flowering plants can reap the benefits of enhanced pollination services, they do so at the cost of increased susceptibility to frost damage that can overwhelm any benefit of flowering early. In contrast, delayed flowering results in dramatic reductions in plant reproduction through reduced pollination. Our results suggest that climate change may constrain the success of early‐flowering plants not through plant‐pollinator mismatch but through the direct impacts of extreme environmental conditions.     

高山林线与气候变化关系研究进展

20世纪全球气候经历了异常的变化。20世纪是过去1000年中增暖最大的1个世纪,并且90年代是最暖的10年。作为两个生态系统的过渡地带,生态过渡带是监测全球变化的重要地点,而森林和苔原之间的高山林线是全球变化最为敏感的地点。从高山林线树木个体对气候变化的响应、气候变化下林线处树木的更新、林线格局变化以及高山林线与气候变化关系研究中所采用的研究方法等方面,综合论述了国内外的研究进展,最后提出了高山林线研究中需要注意的问题,并对今后的研究趋势作了展望。     

典型高寒植物生长繁殖特征对模拟气候变化的短期响应

高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对气候变化的响应十分敏感但研究较少。在青藏高原东北的祁连山南麓坡地,于2007年沿3200～3800m海拔进行了植被的等距双向移栽实验并研究了典型高寒植物的生长繁殖策略对模拟气候变化的响应。结果表明,移栽样线年平均气温随海拔升高的递减率为0.51℃/100m。高寒植物移栽到高海拔后,其株高、基叶数、最大(小)叶面积等生长性状指标均发生显著变化,呈现出在3400m海拔处最高,其余3海拔处较低的趋势;而生殖枝数、花数和有性繁殖投入等生殖策略的响应则不明显,但具有随海拔升高而降低,最后在3800m处升高的变化。结果印证了气候变化对高寒植物生长性状的影响比生殖策略快速的假说。     

Few changes in native Australian alpine plant morphology,despite substantial local climate change

Rapid evolution is likely to be an important mechanism allowing native species to adapt to changed environmental conditions. Many Northern Hemisphere species have undergone substantial recent changes in phenology and morphology. However, we have little information about how native species in the Southern Hemisphere are responding to climate change. We used herbarium specimens from 21 native alpine plant species in Kosciuszko National Park, Australia, to make over 1,500 measurements of plant size, leaf thickness, leaf mass per area, leaf shape, and leaf size across the last 126 years. Only two out of 21 species (9%) showed significant changes in any of the measured traits. The number of changes we observed was not significantly different to what we would expect by chance alone, based on the number of analyses performed. This lack of change is not attributable to methodology—an earlier study using the same methods found significant changes in 70% of species introduced to southeast Australia. Australia''s native alpine plants do not appear to be adapting to changed conditions, and because of the low elevation of Australia''s mountains, they do not have much scope for uphill migration. Thus, our findings suggest that Australia''s native alpine plants are at even greater risk in the face of future climate change than was previously understood.     

青藏高原气候变化与高寒草地

综述了近五十年来青藏高原气候和高寒草地的变化趋势,阐述了气候变化对高寒草地的可能影响。气候变化主要通过水、热过程及其诱导的环境变化对青藏高原高寒草地产生显著的影响。主要过程包括：气候变化对气候带、植被带、植物、植物群落、农业生产以及生态系统固碳潜力等的影响。从目前的观测和研究结果来看,有关青藏高原气候变化及其对高寒草地的可能影响都还很难得出一致的结论。因此,如何科学评价气候变化及其预测和评价对高寒草地结构和功能的潜在影响,以及如何将已经发生的变化纳入到全球变化模型或评价体系中,以便更加精确地评估气候变化的长期影响,将成为必须要回答的关键科学问题。     

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.     

不同干扰类型对高寒草甸群落结构和植物多样性的影响

对高寒草甸天然草地进行了施肥、围栏和放牧 中牧和重牧 处理,研究不同干扰类型对草地植物多样性的影响.结果表明,施肥使草地植物群落物种组成贫乏,群落结构趋于简单,物种多样性减少;中等程度放牧增加了群落结构的复杂性,丰富度指数和多样性指数均最高,支持 中度干扰理论 ;重度放牧,由于干扰过于剧烈而减少了物种优势度和多样性;而轻度干扰的围栏草地,群落由少数优势种所统治,多样性也不高.物种数 S 、丰富度指数 Ma 、Shannon-Wiener指数 H' 、Simpson指数 D 的排列顺序均为:施肥草地<围栏草地<重牧草地<中牧草地;均匀度指数 Jsw 的变化趋势与上述各指数相同;优势度指数的变化趋势则相反,为施肥草地>围栏草地>重牧草地>中牧草地.4种干扰类型草地群落的生活型功能群基本一致,均由多年生禾草、多年生杂类草和莎草类组成,但各功能群在群落中所占比重及各功能群内所含物种数则大不相同.说明不同干扰类型对草地植物群落的物种组成、多样性格局及系统功能等方面产生不同的影响.     

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors

The metamorphosis of planktonic larvae of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) underpins their complex life‐history strategy by switching on the molecular machinery required for sessile life and building calcite shells. Metamorphosis becomes a survival bottleneck, which will be pressured by different anthropogenically induced climate change‐related variables. Therefore, it is important to understand how metamorphosing larvae interact with emerging climate change stressors. To predict how larvae might be affected in a future ocean, we examined changes in the proteome of metamorphosing larvae under multiple stressors: decreased pH (pH 7.4), increased temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu). Quantitative protein expression profiling using iTRAQ‐LC‐MS/MS identified more than 1300 proteins. Decreased pH had a negative effect on metamorphosis by down‐regulating several proteins involved in energy production, metabolism, and protein synthesis. However, warming switched on these down‐regulated pathways at pH 7.4. Under multiple stressors, cell signaling, energy production, growth, and developmental pathways were up‐regulated, although metamorphosis was still reduced. Despite the lack of lethal effects, significant physiological responses to both individual and interacting climate change related stressors were observed at proteome level. The metamorphosing larvae of the C. gigas population in the Yellow Sea appear to have adequate phenotypic plasticity at the proteome level to survive in future coastal oceans, but with developmental and physiological costs.     

基于MaxEnt模型西南地区高山植被对气候变化的响应评估

采用1∶100万的中国植被类型图以及19个气候环境变量数据,基于最大熵(MaxEnt)算法和ArcGIS空间分析模块构建西南地区高山植被地理分布的气候适宜性预测模型,模拟其在基准期(1960—2000年)和不同气候情景下(A2、A1B和B1)的气候适宜性分布格局,并评价其对气候变化的适应性。结果表明:MaxEnt模型分析研究区高山植被地理分布气候适宜性的适用性非常高(AUC=0.93);最暖月均温、最湿季均温、最冷月均温等温度变量是限制其地理分布的主要气候因子;研究区高山植被地理分布的气候适宜区主要集中在西藏自治区、青海省、四川省西部及云南省西北部的部分地区;完全适宜、中度适宜、轻度适宜、不适宜的面积所占总面积比例约为1∶1∶2∶5;1960—2050年研究区高山植被潜在地理分布的气候适宜性面积有不同定程度的减少;未来3种气候变化情景下高山植被地理分布对气候变化的适应性分布格局基本一致,均为不适应区所占总面积比例较大;伴随气候变化,研究区高山植被的适应性减弱,体现在其潜在地理分布对气候变化的适应区分布范围减少;海拔5000—5500m适应性较强,适应区所占面积比例最大(53%左右);3500—4500m适应性最弱,适应区所占面积比例最小(5%左右)。     

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate‐population processes, along with improved long‐term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best‐studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time‐lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate‐dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC‐class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.