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1.
D. Philip Whitfield Alan H. Fielding David Anderson Stuart Benn Robin Reid Ruth Tingay Ewan Weston 《Ibis》2024,166(1):146-155
Natal dispersal distance (NDD) is critical in understanding and defining populations and their conservation. It is defined as the linear distance between the natal location and first reproductive (‘effective NDD’) or potential reproductive (‘gross NDD’) location. It is a measure of gene flow and the functional connectivity across generations between individuals breeding in the same or different geographies. NDD is difficult to record in large raptors. GPS-satellite telemetry has facilitated its recording. Previous Scottish studies showed that gross and effective NDD were apparently equivalent, and an algorithm based on telemetric data could identify the territory settlement timing and location of birds originally tagged as nestlings. We analysed natal dispersal data from 39 Golden Eagles GPS-tagged in Scotland to estimate NDD. Raw median estimates were 29.8 km for males (n = 22) and 58.6 km for females (n = 17), 38.1 km averaged across sexes. Males had significantly shorter NDD, as theoretically predicted. Our NDD estimates were shorter but not grossly dissimilar to those from the USA, where sex differences in NDD had not been confirmed. Respective sample sizes may underly the latter contrast in confirmation. We also showed that in the absence of data from sexed birds, NDD estimates can be different. Natal dispersal duration was not related to NDD, suggesting that time to prospect a territory opportunity was not associated with the selected territory's distance from the natal site. The previous status of the subsequent settled territory (occupied or vacant) was also not related to NDD. We conclude that sex differences in NDD are important in application to population demography and conservation. Although we found no support for two other potential drivers of NDD (natal dispersal duration and previous territory status), identifying additional influences on NDD is in its infancy in large raptors and deserves more study. 相似文献
2.
Exploratory movements and natal dispersal form essential processes during early life history stages of raptors, but identifying the factors shaping individual movement decisions is challenging. Global positioning system (GPS) telemetry thereby provides a promising technique to study movement patterns on adequate spatio-temporal scales. We analysed data of juvenile White-tailed Sea Eagles Haliaeetus albicilla (WTSE) in north-east Germany (n = 24) derived from GPS tracking to extensively analyse movements between fledging and emigration from the natal territory. Our goal was to determine the time point of fledging, characterize pre-emigration movements and the onset of natal dispersal while investigating the influence of the natal environment. WTSE fledged at an average age of 72 days and showed strong excursive behaviour during the post-fledging period regarding the number, distance and duration of excursions, yet with high individual variability. Excursive behaviour did not differ between sexes. On average, WTSE left the parental territory 93 days after fledging. The quantity of excursive behaviour delayed the timing of emigration and WTSE tended to postpone their emigration when foraging water was accessible within the boundaries of their parental territory. The overall results suggest that young WTSE assess the quality of the natal environment via pre-emigration movements and stay in their territory of origin for as long as internal and external conditions allow for it. Our study is one of the first to characterize post-fledging and natal dispersal movements of young WTSE to such an extent and applies modern techniques to understand related movements in relation to the natal environment. The results emphasize the urgent necessity for the extension of currently existing nest protection periods and guaranteeing sustainable management of potential breeding and foraging grounds for WTSE. Ultimately, the results are relevant for all large raptor species sensitive to human-related disturbance, as they support the increasing importance of regulations with spatio-temporal specifications for breeding populations of large raptors in densely human-inhabited areas with increasing alteration of land. 相似文献
3.
Aidin Niamir Andrew K. Skidmore Albertus G. Toxopeus Antonio R. Muñoz Raimundo Real 《Diversity & distributions》2011,17(6):1173-1185
Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This study outlines the incorporation of existing knowledge into a conventional approach to predict the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) at a resolution 100 times finer than available atlas data. Location Malaga province, Andalusia, southern Spain. Methods A Bayesian expert system was proposed to utilize the knowledge from distribution models to yield the probability of a species being recorded at a finer resolution (1 × 1 km) than the original atlas data (10 × 10 km). The recorded probability was then used as a weight vector to generate a sampling scheme from the species atlas to enhance the accuracy of the modelling procedure. The maximum entropy for species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) was used as the species distribution model. A comparison was made between the results of the MaxEnt using the enhanced and, the random sampling scheme, based on four groups of environmental variables: topographic, climatic, biological and anthropogenic. Results The models with the sampling scheme enhanced by an expert system had a higher discriminative capacity than the baseline models. The downscaled (i.e. finer scale) species distribution maps using a hybrid MaxEnt/expert system approach were more specific to the nest locations and were more contrasted than those of the baseline model. Main conclusions The proposed method is a feasible substitute for comprehensive field work. The approach developed in this study is applicable for predicting the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle at a local scale from a national‐level occurrence data set; however, the usefulness of this approach may be limited to well‐known species. 相似文献
4.
Conservation management of species distributed across fragmented habitats requires consideration of population genetic structure and relative levels of genetic diversity throughout the relevant geographical range. The Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos is monitored within Scotland to ensure its survival in the face of land‐use pressure, persecution and future climate change. In this study we constructed DNA profiles for 271 individual birds using a collection of over 1600 moulted feathers collected from 148 territories, representing 34% of known Scottish territories in the largest population genetic study of Golden Eagles undertaken to date. The results, based on data from 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, revealed previously unreported genetic structure between the islands of the Outer Hebrides and the rest of Scotland (FST = 0.03), together with evidence of reduced genetic diversity in the Outer Hebridean population compared with mainland Scotland. Analysis of gene flow supports a hypothesis of limited, predominantly male‐mediated, dispersal from the Outer Hebrides to mainland Scotland. The persistence of this pattern is discussed with respect to variation in population density and persecution pressure across Scotland. A finding of non‐random mating within the Outer Hebrides is interpreted as evidence of natal philopatry that was revealed by more intensive sampling in these islands, and is likely to be accentuated by the apparent degree of isolation of the islands from the rest of Scotland. 相似文献
5.
Food chains culminating with temperate insectivorous passerines are well described, yet whether trophic webs can be site‐specific remains a largely unexplored question. In the case of site‐ or habitat‐specificity of food webs, stable isotope signatures of bird feathers may enable assignment of unmarked individuals to a site or a habitat of origin. We address this question in landscapes that include contrasting forest habitat patches with either deciduous Downy Oak Quercus humilis or evergreen Holm Oak Quercus ilex as dominant tree species. First, we examine the spatial variation across habitats and sites in the stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) along the oak leaf–Tortrix moth Tortrix viridana caterpillar–Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus food chain. Secondly, we assess whether the isotopic signatures allow for correct assignment of individual birds to their site or habitat of origin. At the scale of the landscape, stable isotope values enabled identification of the different components of the Blue Tit food chain: from oak leaves to Blue Tit nestlings and yearling birds. However, isotopic signatures were site‐specific (i.e. geographical) more than habitat‐specific (i.e. deciduous vs. evergreen oaks). Discriminant analyses correctly assigned 85% of nestlings and 83% of resident yearling birds, indicating a pronounced effect of site on Blue Tit feather isotopic signatures. We thereby demonstrate that isotopes reflect a stronger association of locally born birds to the local features of their habitat than that of un‐ringed yearling birds, whose plumage may have grown while in a wider geographical area. This study provides evidence of site‐specific isotopic signatures from oak leaves to Blue Tit feathers at a fine spatial scale. 相似文献
6.
This study is an initial survey of the genetic diversity and population structure of the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) in SW Europe (Iberia) and NW Africa, two locations where the species has undergone a severe decrease in numbers during the last decades. It is also the first study in which the mitochondrial control region (CR) has been used to study the genetic diversity and population structure of this species. Samples were obtained from 72 individuals from Spain, Portugal and Morocco, and a 253-bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region was amplified and sequenced. Only three polymorphisms were present, indicating low nucleotide and haplotype diversity. No evidence of genetic structure was found. Several hypotheses may explain these results, including a possible greater genetic diversity in other regions of the mitochondrial genome or the existence of a presumed ancient bottleneck (last glaciation), possibly followed by a human-induced more recent one (twentieth century). 相似文献
7.
In flying insects, there is frequently a lack of congruence between empirical estimates of local demographic parameters and the prediction that differentiation between populations should decrease with increasing dispersal, a puzzling phenomenon known as Slatkin’s Paradox. Here, we generalize Slatkin’s Paradox to other taxa, drawing from available information on dispersal to predict the relative importance of pollen vs. seed migration in structuring broad‐scale patterns of genetic variation in Ficus hirta, a dioecious fig whose pollen is dispersed by minute, species‐specific fig wasps and whose seeds are disseminated by a variety of vagile vertebrates (especially bats and birds). Local‐scale observational and genetic studies of dioecious understory figs suggest comparable rates of pollen and seed migration. In contrast, we found unusually low nuclear differentiation (FST = 0.037, RST = 0.074) and high chloroplast differentiation (GST = 0.729, NST = 0.798) among populations separated by up to 2850 km, leading us to reject the hypothesis of equal pollen and seed migration rates and to obtain an equilibrium estimate of the ratio of pollen to seed migration of r = 16.2–36.3. We reconcile this example of Slatkin’s Paradox with previously published data for dioecious figs and relate it to the picture of exceptionally long‐distance wasp‐mediated pollen dispersal that is emerging for large monoecious fig trees. More generally, we argue that Slatkin’s Paradox is a general phenomenon and suggest it may be common in plants and animals. 相似文献
8.
Larval dispersal can connect distant subpopulations, with important implications for marine population dynamics and persistence, biodiversity conservation and fisheries management. However, different dispersal pathways may affect the final phenotypes, and thus the performance and fitness of individuals that settle into subpopulations. Using otolith microchemical signatures that are indicative of ‘dispersive’ larvae (oceanic signatures) and ‘non-dispersive’ larvae (coastal signatures), we explore the population-level consequences of dispersal-induced variability in phenotypic mixtures for the common triplefin (a small reef fish). We evaluate lipid concentration and otolith microstructure and find that ‘non-dispersive’ larvae (i) have greater and less variable lipid reserves at settlement (and this variability attenuates at a slower rate), (ii) grow faster after settlement, and (iii) experience similar carry-over benefits of lipid reserves on post-settlement growth relative to ‘dispersive’ larvae. We then explore the consequences of phenotypic mixtures in a metapopulation model with two identical subpopulations replenished by variable contributions of ‘dispersive’ and ‘non-dispersive’ larvae and find that the resulting phenotypic mixtures can have profound effects on the size of the metapopulation. We show that, depending upon the patterns of connectivity, phenotypic mixtures can lead to larger metapopulations, suggesting dispersal-induced demographic heterogeneity may facilitate metapopulation persistence. 相似文献
9.
Abstract: Body size is a common focus of macroevolutionary, macroecological and palaeontological investigations. Here, we document body‐size evolution in 19 species‐level ostracod lineages from the deep Indian Ocean (Deep Sea Drilling Program Site 253) over the past 40 myr. Body‐size trajectories vary across taxa and time intervals, but most lineages (16/19) show net gains in body size. Because many modern ostracod taxa are larger in colder parts of their geographical range, we compared the timing and magnitude of these size changes to established Cenozoic deep‐water cooling patterns confirmed through δ18O measurements of benthic foraminifera in the samples studied. These data show a significant negative correlation between size changes and temperature changes (ostracods get larger as temperatures get colder), and that systematic size increases only occur during intervals of sustained cooling. In addition, statistical support for an explicit temperature‐tracking model exceeds that of purely directional evolution. We argue that this Cope’s Rule pattern is driven by secular changes in the environment, rather than any universal or intrinsic advantages to larger body sizes, and we note some difficulties in the attempts to link Cope’s Rule to observations made within a single generation. 相似文献
10.
Giulia Bombieri Vincenzo Penteriani Juan Carlos Illera Dan Chamberlain María del Mar Delgado 《Ethology : formerly Zeitschrift fur Tierpsychologie》2018,124(3):139-148
Individual variability in animal movement behaviour is well documented for many species. However, it remains unclear whether this variability reflects genetic variation, environmental variation or a combination of the two. Here, we conduct a cross‐fostering experiment with the aim of investigating the role of these two components in movement patterns during the post‐fledging dependence period and early natal dispersal of 21 eagle owls Bubo bubo. Our experiment showed that cross‐fostering did not influence any of the movement parameters considered. Movement parameters were, however, affected by the age and sex of the owlets. We therefore suggest that individual variability and family resemblance in movement behaviour during the post‐fledging dependence period and early natal dispersal might not be due to the common genetic origin of siblings, but rather that it originates from factors related to the rearing environment. 相似文献
11.
Lieven Therry Andrzej Zawal Dries Bonte Robby Stoks 《Biological journal of the Linnean Society. Linnean Society of London》2014,112(3):556-568
Individuals at the expansion front during a climate‐driven range expansion are expected to differ phenotypically from those individuals in core populations. Little information is known about the joint, potentially opposing, effects of stressful conditions at the range edge versus evolutionary changes that take place during range expansion in shaping the phenotypes at the range front. We investigated the effect of range expansion on immune function, body condition and flight‐related morphology (flight muscle ratio, wing loading, and wing aspect ratio) of field‐collected females of the poleward‐moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum. Individuals at the expansion front had a lower body condition, which indicated more stressful conditions at the range edge. Despite the counteracting effect of the shorter growth season, the higher flight muscle ratios at the expansion front indicated a strong selection for dispersal ability during range expansion. The current study suggests that models need to incorporate the interplay of stressful conditions and evolutionary processes at the expansion front to arrive at robust predictions of future species distributions under global warming. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 112 , 556–568. 相似文献
12.
We analyzed the environmental determinants of the regional distribution of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) in Spain (ca. 500,000 km2), taking into account its frequency of occurrence on UTM blocks of 50 × 50 km. We found that the distribution pattern of
Bonelli’s eagle was a highly predictable phenomenon based on climate, vegetation and interspecific relationships. The proportion
of sunny, anticyclonic days, per year (i.e., high levels of solar radiation) was the main environmental predictor explaining
the distribution and abundance pattern of the Bonelli’s eagle. Sparse plant formations (mainly shrublands) had also a positive
effect, while altitude, agricultural land and deciduous forests had a negative influence. The relative abundance of one of
its main preys, the Red Partridge (Alectoris rufa), favored the probability of occurrence of Bonelli’s eagle, but only in the less sunny areas located in the north of Spain.
The relative abundance of its main competitor, the Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), was slightly but positively correlated with both the distribution and the abundance of the Bonelli’s eagle in the Spanish
portion of the Iberian Peninsula, probably due to similarities in their habitat preferences. Finally, we did not find further
regional effects of the variables describing the degree of human pressure (density of roads, urban cover, and length of power
lines). 相似文献
13.
Mar Rodríguez‐Girondo Jacobo de Uña‐Álvarez 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2012,54(2):163-180
The three‐state progressive model is a special multi‐state model with important applications in Survival Analysis. It provides a suitable representation of the individual’s history when an intermediate event (with a possible influence on the survival prognosis) is experienced before the main event of interest. Estimation of transition probabilities in this and other multi‐state models is usually performed through the Aalen–Johansen estimator. However, Aalen–Johansen may be biased when the underlying process is not Markov. In this paper, we provide a new approach for testing Markovianity in the three‐state progressive model. The new method is based on measuring the future‐past association along time. This results in a deep inspection of the process that often reveals a non‐Markovian behaviour with different trends in the association measure. A test of significance for zero future‐past association at each time point is introduced, and a significance trace is proposed accordingly. The finite sample performance of the test is investigated through simulations. We illustrate the new method through real data analysis. 相似文献
14.
《Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience》2012,6(7):1086-1095
A total of 190 rabbit females were used to evaluate five feeding programmes from 9 weeks of age to the first parturition: CAL, fed ad libitum with a control diet (C: 11.0 MJ digestible energy (DE) and 114 g digestible protein (DP)/kg dry matter (DM)) until first parturition; CR, fed ad libitum with C diet until 12 weeks of age and then C diet restricted (140 g/day) until first parturition; F, fed ad libitum with a low-energy, high-fibre diet (F: 8.7 MJ DE and 88 g DP/kg DM) until first parturition; FC, fed with F diet ad libitum until 16 weeks of age, and C diet ad libitum until first parturition; FCF, fed with F diet ad libitum until 16 weeks of age, then C diet ad libitum until 20 weeks and then F diet ad libitum until first parturition. The rabbits were artificially inseminated at 18 weeks of age. CAL group had a higher mortality rate compared with the other groups between 9 and 12 weeks of age (34% v. 3%; P < 0.05) and during the last 3 weeks of first pregnancy (14% v. 3%; P < 0.05). The CAL and FC females presented higher BW and perirenal fat thickness (PFT) than CR females at 11 days of pregnancy (+0.41 kg and +0.6 mm; P < 0.05), with F females showing medium values. The type of feeding procedure did not affect the fertility rate of young females at first artificial insemination. Differences in BW disappeared at parturition, when only CAL females presented a greater PFT than CR and FC females (+0.3 mm; P < 0.05). In comparison with FCF, CAL females had smaller and thinner live born litters (−2.5 kits and −139 g, respectively; P < 0.05), with CR, F and FC females showing medium values. The low number of kits born alive for CAL females was because of their lesser total number of kits born (−1.7 kits; P < 0.05) and the greater mortality of their litters at birth (+13.9%; P < 0.05) compared with FCF females. Non-esterified fatty acid was higher in the blood of females fed C diet (CAL and CR) than in others at partum day (on average +0.15 mmol/l; P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ad libitum use of diets for lactating rabbit does throughout the rearing period could lead young rabbit females to present a higher risk of early death and smaller litter size at first parturition. Feed restriction or earlier use of suitably fibrous diets led females to achieve the critical BW and fat mass at first mating to ensure reproduction. 相似文献
15.
Aim We explore geographic variation in body size within the wingless grasshopper, Phaulacridium vittatum, along a latitudinal gradient, and ask whether melanism can help explain the existence of clinal variation. We test the hypotheses that both male and female grasshoppers will be larger and lighter in colour at lower latitudes, and that reflectance and size will be positively correlated, as predicted by biophysical theory. We then test the hypothesis that variability in size and reflectance is thermally driven, by assessing correlations with temperature and other climatic variables. Location Sixty‐one populations were sampled along the east coast of Australia between latitudes 27.63° S and 43.10° S, at elevations ranging from 10 to 2000 m a.s.l. Methods Average reflectance was used as a measure of melanism and femur length as an index of body size for 198 adult grasshoppers. Climate variables were generated by BIOCLIM for each collection locality. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify those variables with the most independent influence on grasshopper size and reflectance. Results Overall, there was no simple relationship between size and latitude in P. vittatum. Female body size decreased significantly with latitude, while male body size was largest at intermediate latitudes. Rainfall was the most important climatic variable associated with body size of both males and females. Female body size was also associated with radiation seasonality and male body size with reflectance. The reflectance of females was not correlated with latitude or body size, while male reflectance was significantly higher at intermediate latitudes and positively correlated with body size. Analyses of climate variables showed no significant association with male reflectance, while female reflectance was significantly related to the mean temperature of the driest quarter. Main conclusions Geographic variation in the body size of the wingless grasshopper is best explained in terms of rainfall and radiation seasonality, rather than temperature. However, melanism is also a significant influence on body size in male grasshoppers, suggesting that thermal fitness does play a role in determining adaptive responses to local conditions in this sex. 相似文献
16.
José Alexandre Felizola Diniz‐Filho Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Luis Mauricio Bini Miguel Ángel Olalla‐Tarraga Marcel Cardillo João Carlos Nabout Joaquín Hortal Bradford A. Hawkins 《Journal of Biogeography》2009,36(12):2222-2236
Aim One of the longest recognized patterns in macroecology, Bergmann’s rule, describes the tendency for homeothermic animals to have larger body sizes in cooler climates than their phylogenetic relatives in warmer climates. Here we provide an integrative process‐based explanation for Bergmann’s rule at the global scale for the mammal order Carnivora. Location Global. Methods Our database comprises the body sizes of 209 species of extant terrestrial Carnivora, which were analysed using phylogenetic autocorrelation and phylogenetic eigenvector regression. The interspecific variation in body size was partitioned into phylogenetic (P) and specific (S) components, and mean P‐ and S‐components across species were correlated with environmental variables and human occupation both globally and for regions glaciated or not during the last Ice Age. Results Three‐quarters of the variation in body size can be explained by phylogenetic relationships among species, and the geographical pattern of mean values of the P‐component is the opposite of the pattern predicted by Bergmann’s rule. Partial regression revealed that at least 43% of global variation in the mean phylogenetic component is explained by current environmental factors. In contrast, the mean S‐component of body size shows large positive deviations from ancestors across the Holarctic, and negative deviations in southern South America, the Sahara Desert, and tropical Asia. There is a moderately strong relationship between the human footprint and body size in glaciated regions, explaining 19% of the variance of the mean P‐component. The relationship with the human footprint and the P‐component is much weaker in the rest of the world, and there is no relationship between human footprint and S‐component in any region. Main conclusions Bergmannian clines are stronger at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because of the continuous alternation of glacial–interglacial cycles throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, which generated increased species turnover, differential colonization and more intense adaptive processes soon after glaciated areas became exposed. Our analyses provide a unified explanation for an adaptive Bergmann’s rule within species and for an interspecific trend towards larger body sizes in assemblages resulting from historical changes in climate and contemporary human impacts. 相似文献
17.
18.
Spatial variation in the pattern of natural selection can promote local adaptation and genetic differentiation between populations. Because heritable melanin‐based ornaments can signal resistance to environmentally mediated elevation in glucocorticoids, to oxidative stress and parasites, populations may vary in the mean degree of melanic coloration if selection on these phenotypic aspects varies geographically. Within a population of Swiss barn owls (Tyto alba), the size of eumelanic spots is positively associated with survival, immunity and resistance to stress, but it is yet unknown whether Tyto species that face stressful environments evolved towards a darker eumelanic plumage. Because selection regimes vary along environmental gradients, we examined whether melanin‐based traits vary clinally and are expressed to a larger extent in the tropics where parasites are more abundant than in temperate zones. To this end, we considered 39 barn owl species distributed worldwide. Barn owl species living in the tropics displayed larger eumelanic spots than those found in temperate zones. This was, however, verified in the northern hemisphere only. Parasites being particularly abundant in the tropics, they may promote the evolution of darker eumelanic ornaments. 相似文献
19.
We present genetic and demographic data documenting juveniledispersal in the cooperatively breeding stripe-backed wren (Campylorhynchusnuchalis) of Venezuela. Parentage and DNA fragment-sharing analysesrevealed 12 cases in which juveniles were unrelated to othergroup members. Of these 12 foreign juveniles, (1) all were males,(2) eight of 12 had been found with breeding pairs lacking helpersrather than with groups containing helpers, and (3) four outof seven of those observed as adults courted or sired offspringwith the dominant females in their new groups despite the strongincest avoidance of this species. Furthermore, juvenile maleshad a significant tendency to disappear from natal groups intheir first year, and singleton juveniles observed with pairsafter the breeding season were mostly males. These data supportthe hypothesis that foreign juveniles were dispersers from intactgroups and not products of conspecific brood parasitism or adoptionfollowing group dissolution. We suggest that unassisted pairsmight accept juvenile males into their groups as helpers toincrease their future reproductive success and that dispersersthemselves might leave large natal groups in which their helpingis superfluous to join small groups of nonrelatives in whichthey might soon reproduce. 相似文献
20.
The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison (Bison bison). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and 14C decay. We estimated body mass (M) as M = (DstL/11.49)3. Average annual temperature was estimated from δ18O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of Bison declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24–18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short‐term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention. 相似文献