Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States

Effectively managing take of wildlife resulting from human activities poses a major challenge for applied conservation. Demographic data essential to decisions regarding take are often expensive to collect and are either not available or based on limited studies for many species. Therefore, modeling approaches that efficiently integrate available information are important to improving the scientific basis for sustainable take thresholds. We used the prescribed take level (PTL) framework to estimate allowable take for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) in the conterminous United States. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates multiple sources of information and then use the model output as the scientific basis for components of the PTL framework. Our IPM is structured to identify key parameters needed for the PTL and to quantify uncertainties in those parameters at the scale at which the United States Fish and Wildlife Service manages take. Our IPM indicated that mean survival of birds >1 year old was high and precise (0.91, 95% CI = 0.90–0.92), whereas mean survival of first-year eagles was lower and more variable (0.69, 95% CI = 0.62–0.78). We assumed that density dependence influenced recruitment by affecting the probability of breeding, which was highly imprecise and estimated to have declined from approximately 0.988 (95% CI = 0.985–0.993) to 0.66 (95% CI = 0.34–0.99) between 1994 and 2018. We sampled values from the posterior distributions of the IPM for use in the PTL and estimated that allowable take (e.g., permitted take for energy development, incidental collisions with human made structures, or removal of nests for development) ranged from approximately 12,000 to 20,000 individual eagles depending on risk tolerance and form of density dependence at the scale of the conterminous United States excluding the Southwest. Model-based thresholds for allowable take can be inaccurate if the assumptions of the underlying framework are not met, if the influence of permitted take is under-estimated, or if undetected population declines occur from other sources. Continued monitoring and use of the IPM and PTL frameworks to identify key uncertainties in bald eagle population dynamics and management of allowable take can mitigate this potential bias, especially where improved information could reduce the risk of permitting non-sustainable take.     

Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks

1. Monitoring programs can benefit from an adaptive monitoring approach, where key decisions about why, where, what, and how to monitor are revisited periodically in order to ensure programmatic relevancy.
2. The National Park Service (NPS) monitors status and trends of vital signs to evaluate compliance with the NPS mission. Although abundant, The Southwest Alaska Network (SWAN) monitors bald eagles because of their inherent importance to park visitors and role as an important ecological indicator. Our goal is to identify an optimal monitoring program that may be standardized among participating parks.
3. We gathered an expert panel of scientists and managers, and implemented a Delphi Process to gather information about the bald eagle monitoring program. Panelists generated a list of means objectives for the monitoring program: minimizing cost, minimizing effort, maximizing the ability to detect change in bald eagle populations, and maximizing the amount of accurate information collected about bald eagles.
4. We used a swing‐weighting technique to assign importance to each objective. Collecting accurate information about bald eagles was considered the most important means objective.
5. Combining panelist‐generated information with objective importance, we analyzed the scenarios and defined the optimal decision using linear value modeling. Through our analysis, we found that a “Comprehensive” monitoring scenario, comprised of all feasible monitoring metrics, is the optimal monitoring scenario. Even with greatly increased cost, the Comprehensive monitoring scenario remains the best solution.
6. We suggest further exploration of the cost and effort required for the Comprehensive scenario, to determine whether it is in the parks’ best interest to begin monitoring additional metrics.

     

Nest Turnover Rates and List-Frame Decay in Bald Eagles: Implications for the National Monitoring Plan

ABSTRACT In accordance with federal regulations, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service developed a postdelisting monitoring plan for the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) designed to detect a change in the number of occupied nests on a national scale. The plan employs a dual-frame approach to the survey design where a list frame (list of known nests) and an area frame (set of survey plots) are used in concert to estimate the number of occupied nests in 5-year intervals over a 20-year period. The plan offers no provisions for changes in list-frame integrity, nor does it contemplate the impact of such changes on survey performance. We used a long-term data set to quantify occupancy patterns for nests in Virginia, USA, and evaluated their influence on integrity of the list frame and performance of the proposed dual-frame monitoring approach. The average annual turnover rate for nests was 0.261, resulting in a rapid decay of the list frame. Decay of the list frame leads to a functional collapse of the dual-frame approach, down to the area-frame survey alone, early within the monitoring time horizon. This early decay of the list frame implies that the area-frame coverage needed to maintain the same statistical power as stated in the monitoring plan would have to be increased by a factor of 3 to 5 beyond that recommended in the current plan. Remedies for this deficiency undermine the cost benefit associated with inclusion of the list frame. We examined response of the dual-frame survey to variation in nest turnover rates and population growth rates and defined a state space where time to collapse is beyond the proposed 20-year time horizon. Because, under realistic estimates of turnover rates, the dual-frame approach collapses to the area frame within the proposed monitoring window, we recommend that the costs of list-frame maintenance be included in the procedure to optimize allocation of survey effort.     

Environmental lead reduces the resilience of bald eagle populations

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are considered a recovery success in the United States after rebounding from near extirpation due to widespread use of the insecticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in the twentieth century. Although abundances of bald eagles have increased since DDT was banned, other contaminants have remained in the environment with unknown influence on eagle population trends. Ingestion of spent lead (Pb) ammunition, the source of Pb most available to eagles and other scavengers in the United States, is known to kill individual eagles, but the influence of the contaminant on overall population dynamics remains unclear, resulting in longstanding controversy over the continued legality of the use of Pb in terrestrial hunting ammunition. We hypothesized that mortalities from the ingestion of Pb reduced the long-term growth rate and resiliency of bald eagles in the northeast United States over the last 3 decades. We used Holling's definition of resilience (the ability of a system to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters and still persist) to quantify how reduction in survival from Pb-associated mortalities reduced the likelihood of population persistence. We used a population matrix model and necropsy records gathered between 1990 and 2018 from a 7-state area to compare population dynamics under current versus hypothetical Pb-reduced and Pb-free scenarios. Despite a robust increase in eagle abundances in the northeast United States over that period, we estimated that deaths arising from ingestion of Pb was associated with a 4.2% (females) and 6.3% (males) reduction in the asymptotic long-term growth rate (lambda). Comparison between real (current) and counterfactual (Pb-reduced and Pb-free) population dynamics indicated that the deaths from acute Pb poisoning were additive because the mortality events were associated with marked reduction in annual survival performance of hatchlings and reproductive females. These shifts in survival performance were further associated with a reduction in resilience for hatchling (95.4%) and breeding (81.6%) female eagles. Counterintuitively, the current conditions produced an increase in resilience (68.9%) for immature and non-breeding female eagles over hypothetical Pb-free conditions, suggesting that the population of eagles in the northeast United States reorganized (in a population dynamics sense) to ensure population expansion despite additive mortalities associated with Pb. This study can be used by state and federal wildlife managers or non-governmental organizations to inform policy surrounding the use of lead ammunition or to educate hunters on the population-scale effects of their ammunition choices.     

Long‐term mark‐and‐recapture study of a freshwater mussel reveals patterns of habitat use and an association between survival and river discharge

相似文献   

Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population‐level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long‐term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population‐level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.     

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears (Ursus arctos), using three common data types for bear (U. spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.     

Relative influence of habitat structure,species interactions and rainfall on the post‐fire population dynamics of ground‐dwelling vertebrates

The long‐term impacts of wildfires on animal populations are largely unknown. We used time‐series data based on a tracking index, from coastal NSW spanning 28 years after a wildfire, to investigate the relative influence of habitat structure, species interactions and climate on post‐fire animal population dynamics. The fire had an immediate impact on habitat structure, reducing and simplifying vegetation cover, which then underwent post‐fire successional change including an increase and plateau in tree canopy cover; an increase, stabilization and then decline in shrub cover; and an increase in ground litter cover. Population changes of different animal species were influenced by different components of successional change, but there was also evidence that species interactions were important. For example, bandicoots (Isoodon obesulus and Perameles nasuta combined) increased concurrent with an increase in shrub cover then declined at a faster rate than a direct association with senescing shrub cover would suggest, while the feral cat (Felis catus) population changed with the bandicoot population, suggesting a link between these species. Potoroos (Potorous tridactylus) increased 10 years after the fire concurrent with the closing tree canopy, but there was also evidence of a negative association with feral foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Variation in rainfall did not have significant effects on the population dynamics of any species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat structure play a key role in the post‐fire dynamics of many ground‐dwelling animals and hence different fire regimes are likely to influence animal dynamics through their effects on habitat structure. However, the role of predator–prey interactions, particularly with feral predators, is less clear and further study will require manipulative experiments of predators in conjunction with fire treatments to determine whether feral predator control should be integrated with fire management to improve outcomes for some native species.     

Native insect herbivory overwhelms context dependence to limit complex invasion dynamics of exotic weeds

Understanding the role of consumers in density‐dependent plant population dynamics is a long‐standing goal in ecology. However, the generality of herbivory effects across heterogeneous landscapes is poorly understood due to the pervasive influence of context‐dependence. We tested effects of native insect herbivory on the population dynamics of an exotic thistle, Cirsium vulgare, in a field experiment replicated across eight sites in eastern Nebraska. Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and density‐dependent population models, we found potential for explosive low‐density population growth (λ > 5) and complex density fluctuations under herbivore exclusion. However, herbivore access drove population decline (λ < 1), suppressing complex fluctuations. While plant–herbivore interaction outcomes are famously context‐dependent, we demonstrated that herbivores suppress potentially invasive populations throughout our study region, and this qualitative outcome is insensitive to environmental context. Our novel use of Bayesian demographic modelling shows that native insect herbivores consistently prevent hard‐to‐predict fluctuations of weeds in environments otherwise susceptible to invasion.     

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage‐grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large‐scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short‐term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long‐term population index data available for Gunnison sage‐grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage‐grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.     

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30‐year experimental study on a rare orchid

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large‐scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among‐year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.     

Temporal and spatial dynamics of amphioxus population (Branchiostoma belcheri tsingtaneuse) and its influential factors in Luan River Estuary,China

Population distribution of amphioxus (Branchiostoma belcheri tsingtauense) was investigated in the Luan River Estuary from 1999 to 2011, to describe its trends and discover the factors that influence its decline. Amphioxus are distributed on the seabed at 5–10 m depth, between the Xinkai Estuary and the Dapu River Estuary, where the primary sand components of the sediment are medium and fine, with particle size ranging from 0.001 to 1 mm. In recent years, the population density and biomass of amphioxus have sharply decreased. Changes in sediment granularity composition may significantly influence amphioxus distribution. Our data showed that the highest density region of amphioxus occurred where >90% of the sediment particles were between 0.063 and 0.5 mm in size. A reduction in sediment discharge from Luan River and the expansion of raft‐breeding mariculture may be causing the decline in amphioxus through habitat destruction.     

Long‐term breeding demography and density dependence in an increasing population of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos

Few studies have quantified the dynamics of recovering populations of large raptors using long‐term, spatially explicit studies. Using data collected over 37 years in the western Italian Alps, we assessed the trends in distribution, abundance, fecundity and breeding population structure of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Using the spatial distribution of territory centroids in 2007, we found that the spatial distribution of eagle territories was over‐dispersed up to 3 km. Although population size and total productivity increased from 1972 to 2008, the proportion of pairs that laid eggs showed a strong decline, falling to no more than 50% after 2003. On average, 15% of successful nests produced two fledglings, and productivity also declined over time. No significant relationship between population growth rate and total population size was detected, but the percentage of pairs that bred and breeding success showed evidence of density dependence, as they declined significantly with increasing density. Our results suggest that density dependence, operating across heterogeneous habitats, is currently regulating this population, while the carrying capacity may still be increasing. This may explain the apparent paradox of reduced breeding effort despite increasing total productivity.     

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with “Short” and “Tall” ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat‐specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real‐time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real‐time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High‐quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low‐quality to high‐quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.     

Life history and population dynamics of southern Alaska resident killer whales (Orcinus orca)

Resident (fish eating) killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the North Pacific have been the subject of long‐term studies in several geographical regions. The current study examines population parameters in the southern Alaska resident population from 1984 to 2010 and develops a population model. The southern Alaska resident population ranges from southeastern Alaska through the Kodiak archipelago and contains over 700 individuals. We follow the life histories of 343 identifiable whales in 10 pods from two clans born before and during the study. Population parameters were comparable to those of the British Columbia northern resident population during the 1970s and 1980s, except that age of maturity was approximately one year earlier. The average annual rate of increase was slightly higher in Alaska (3.5%) than for the British Columbia northern residents (2.9%) and probably represents a population at r‐max (maximum rate of growth). Reasons for the high growth rate in Alaska could be a recovery following past anthropogenic mortalities, or more likely, a response to increasing salmon returns in recent decades, resulting in an increase in carrying capacity. The slow maturation and low rate of reproductive response makes these whales slow to recover from natural or anthropogenic catastrophes.     

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young‐of‐the‐year abundance and population dynamics

相似文献   

The influence of nest site selection on the population dynamics of Africanized honey bees in an urban landscape

Urban landscapes provide habitat for many species, including domesticated and feral honey bees, Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae). With recent losses of managed honey bee colonies, there is increasing interest in feral honey bee colonies and their potential contribution to pollination services in agricultural, natural, and urban settings. However, in some regions the feral honey bee population consists primarily of Africanized honey bees. Africanized honey bees (AHB) are hybrids between European honey bees and the African honey bee, Apis mellifera scutellataLepeletier, and have generated economic, ecological, and human health concerns because of their aggressive behavior. In this study, we used two long‐term datasets (7–10 years) detailing the spatial and temporal distribution of AHB colonies in Tucson, AZ, USA, where feral colonies occupy a variety of cavities including water meter boxes. A stage‐structured matrix model was used to elucidate the implications of nest site selection and the effects of colony terminations on the structure and dynamics of the AHB population. Our results suggest that Tucson's AHB population is driven by a relatively small number of ‘source’ colonies that escape termination (ca. 0.165 colonies per km² or 125 colonies in total), although immigrating swarms and absconding colonies from the surrounding area may have also contributed to the stability of the Tucson AHB population. Furthermore, the structure of the population has likely been impacted by the number and spatial distribution of water meter boxes across the city. The study provides an example of how urban wildlife populations are driven by interactions among landscape structure, human management, and behavioral traits conferred by an invasive genotype.