Obesity persistence and duration dependence: Evidence from a cohort of US adults (1985–2010)

This study investigates dynamic patterns of obesity persistence and identifies the determinants of obesity-spell exits and re-entries. We utilize longitudinal data from the NLSY79 covering the period 1985–2010. Non-parametric techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between exit from obesity and spell duration. Multivariate discrete hazard models are also estimated, taking into account duration dependence and observed and time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. In all cases, the probability of exiting obesity is inversely related to the duration of the obesity spell. Without controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the probability of exit after one wave in obesity is 31.5 per cent; it is reduced to 3.8 per cent after seven or more waves. When time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated probabilities are slightly larger and broadly similar (36.8 and 10.3, respectively), which suggests that the identified negative duration dependence is not primarily due to composition effects. The obtained results indicate that public health interventions targeting the newly obese may be particularly effective at reducing incidence of long durations of obesity.     

Comparisons of egg incubation and hatchling traits among captive cohorts of the Chinese three-keeled pond turtle, Chinemys reevesii

Freshly-laid eggs of the Chinese three-keeled pond turtle (Chinemys reevesii) from captive cohorts in Hunan, Shanghai and Jiangxi were incubated at four constant temperatures of 24, 26, 28 and 30 °C to assess the effects of incubation temperature and cohort origin on incubation duration and hatchling phenotypes. Eggs from the three cohorts differed in size and shape. Egg mass and width were greatest in the Hunan cohort, smallest in the Jiangxi cohort, with the Shanghai cohort in between. Incubation duration decreased with increasing temperature and differed among the cohorts, with longer incubation duration for eggs from the Jiangxi cohort than those from the Hunan or Shanghai cohorts. Incubation temperatures significantly affected hatchling size and hatchlings from 30 °C were smaller than those from the lower temperatures in terms of carapace size and body mass. When incubated at a common temperature, hatchlings from the Hunan and Shanghai cohorts were larger than those from the Jiangxi cohort. The swimming capacity of hatchlings was affected by incubation temperature, but did not differ among the cohorts. The characteristics of eggs and hatchlings were similar among the Hunan and Shanghai cohorts, but they differed significantly from the Jiangxi cohort.     

Comparisons of egg incubation and hatchling traits among captive cohorts of the Chinese three-keeled pond turtle, Chinemys reevesii

Freshly-laid eggs of the Chinese three-keeled pond turtle (Chinemys reevesii) from captive cohorts in Hunan, Shanghai and Jiangxi were incubated at four constant temperatures of 24, 26, 28 and 30 °C to assess the effects of incubation temperature and cohort origin on incubation duration and hatchling phenotypes. Eggs from the three cohorts differed in size and shape. Egg mass and width were greatest in the Hunan cohort, smallest in the Jiangxi cohort, with the Shanghai cohort in between. Incubation duration decreased with increasing temperature and differed among the cohorts, with longer incubation duration for eggs from the Jiangxi cohort than those from the Hunan or Shanghai cohorts. Incubation temperatures significantly affected hatchling size and hatchlings from 30 °C were smaller than those from the lower temperatures in terms of carapace size and body mass. When incubated at a common temperature, hatchlings from the Hunan and Shanghai cohorts were larger than those from the Jiangxi cohort. The swimming capacity of hatchlings was affected by incubation temperature, but did not differ among the cohorts. The characteristics of eggs and hatchlings were similar among the Hunan and Shanghai cohorts, but they differed significantly from the Jiangxi cohort.     

Socioeconomic and seasonal variations in births: A replication

Many studies, but not all, suggest that immigrant health worsens with duration of residence in the United States. Cohort effects may explain the inconsistent findings; not only are cohort effects confounded with duration, but the timing of entry into the United States may also create qualitatively different migration experiences. The present study tests for duration and cohort patterns among Asian immigrants to the United States across six year-of-entry cohorts (pre-1980, 1981–85, 1986–90, 1991–95, 1996–2000, 2001–05). Data come from the Asian American sample (n = 44,002) of the 1994–2009 waves of the National Health Interview Survey. The data show cohort differences for self-rated health, such that more recent cohorts showed improved baseline health compared to older cohorts. After accounting for cohorts, there was no significant change in self-rated health by duration of residence. Older cohorts actually showed improving self-rated health with longer duration. Obesity showed the opposite pattern; there were no differences across cohorts, but duration in the United States correlated with higher obesity. These results imply that immigrant health is not simply an issue of duration and adaptation; instead, they underscore the utility of considering cohorts as broader contexts of migration. Collectively, the results encourage future research that more carefully examines the etiological mechanisms that drive immigrant health.     

Consequences of heterogeneity in survival probability in a population of Florida scrub-jays

1. Using data on breeding birds from a 35-year study of Florida scrub-jays Aphelocoma coerulescens (Bosc 1795), we show that survival probabilities are structured by age, birth cohort, and maternal family, but not by sex. Using both accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models, the data are best described by models incorporating variation among birth cohorts and greater mortality hazard with increasing age. AFT models using Weibull distributions with the shape parameter > 1 were always the best-fitting models. 2. Shared frailty models allowing for family structure greatly reduce model deviance. The best-fitting models included a term for frailty shared by maternal families. 3. To ask how long a data set must be to reach qualitatively the same conclusions, we repeated the analyses for all possible truncated data sets of 2 years in length or greater. Length of the data set affects the parameter estimates, but not the qualitative conclusions. In all but three of 337 truncated data sets the best-fitting models pointed to same conclusions as the full data set. Shared frailty models appear to be quite robust. 4. The data are not adequate for testing hypotheses as to whether variation in frailty is heritable. 5. Substantial structured heterogeneity for survival exists in this population. Such structured heterogeneity has been shown to have substantial effects in reducing demographic stochasticity.     

The EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in the mover-stayer model

The discrete-time mover-stayer model (Blumen, Kogan, and McCarthy, 1955, The Industrial Mobility of Labor as a Probability Process, Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press) is a useful model for studying changes over time in heterogeneous populations. Using the EM algorithm, we present an alternative method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the mover-stayer model, and consider an extension of the basic model to the problem of incomplete follow-up in panel studies. The models and the methods are illustrated with data from a community-based survey of changes in mental health status over a 1-year period.     

Fecundability and husband's age

The effect of husband's age on the probability of conception is evaluated from World Fertility Survey data in five developing countries: the Ivory Coast, Ghana Kenya, the Sudan, and Syria. Proportional hazards models, which include wife's age, husband's age, marriage duration, union type, and post-partum exposure as covariates, are used to describe the monthly conception rate for second and higher-order birth intervals in which no contraception was used. With the exception of Syria, the resulting models indicate that the effects of male age are generally small in relation to the influences of marital duration and the age of the woman.     

Height and marital outcomes in the Netherlands,birth years 1841-1900

Adult body height appears to be significantly associated with marital outcomes: taller men across contexts have been found to be more likely to be married, and more likely to be married at younger ages. We are interested in exploring both outcomes individually and simultaneously, while using an unique, individual-level dataset of Dutch men and their brothers born between 1841 and 1900. To do so, we exploit survival models and cure models. While survival models yield a single estimate for the hazard (or age at) marriage, cure models yield two: one for the likelihood of marriage, and one for the hazard of first marriage. Cure models thus account for selection into marriage, while survival models do not. We find that, in the survival analyses, being in the shortest 20 % of heights is associated with later ages of marriage, relative to being average height. However, when we account for selection into marriage with cure models, we find that height is no longer associated with age at marriage. Instead, we see that height is associated with the likelihood of being married, with being in the bottom 20 % of heights associated with a 56.1 % decreased likelihood of being married, relative to being average height. We therefore conclude that height may be a gatekeeper for access to marriage, but it appears that other factors – likely related to the ability to set up an independent household – are more important in determining the timing of marriage for our research population.     

Divorce in Ethiopia: the impact of early marriage and childlessness

Forty-five per cent of first marriages in Ethiopia end in divorce within 30 years, and two-thirds of women who divorce do so within the first 5 years of marriage. This paper looks at two factors that may have an impact on the risk of divorce in Ethiopia: early age of first marriage, and childlessness within the first marriage. Data used were from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey conducted by the Government of Ethiopia. A total of 8757 women of reproductive age (15-49) were analysed. Life table analysis was used to determine the median age at first marriage, first birth and the median duration of marriage. Cox models were analysed to determine the differentials of divorce. The results of this analysis showed that both early age at marriage and childlessness have a significant impact on the risk of divorce. An inverse relationship was found between age at marriage and risk of divorce. Having a child within the first marriage also significantly reduced the risk of divorce. In addition, several cultural and socioeconomic variables were significant predictors of divorce.     

On the Distribution of the Menstruating Interval

This article is concerned with the development of some stochastic models better suited to describe the observed distributions of the menstruating interval relating to last closed-birth interval of two types of females. In this context, two models suited for couples using or not using contraception have been proposed. In the first case, the model assumes a constant conception rate (analogous to the constant hazard rate in the life-testing problem) over time whereas the second case assumes a time-dependent form of the conception rate. The models have been applied to the data collected in a survey conducted in Lucknow, and estimates of conception rate for the two types of females have also been obtained.     

Cessation of childbearing in the absence of contraception in Sri Lanka

In data from the Sri Lanka Fertility Survey, 1975, the cessation of childbearing is examined among women who have never used contraception. The sample consisted of 6810 currently or previously married women, 57% of whom reported that they had never used contraception. Cessation of childbearing is studied according to age and marriage duration. The variables analyzed are age at last birth, proportions infertile during the last 5 or 7 years, and the infertile open interval. The duration of breastfeeding is taken into account where necessary, and the contraceptive users and nonusers are compared where appropriate. Non-users tend to cease childbearing early, and therefore are infertile for longer periods during their marriages. It is probably age of the 1st child that influences decisions on future fertility. Among women aged 45-49 who married before age 20 and continued in their 1st marriage, mean age at last live birth in non-users, was 34.5 years, about 2 years earlier than in those who had used contraception. Non-users who married at any age below 30 years cease childbearing well below age 40. The proportion not currently pregnant and infertile over the past 5 years increases with marriage duration among the fertile non-users in each age group. When age at last birth and the duration of breastfeeding in the open interval are taken into account and the reference period is increased to 7 years, the period of infertility increases with marriage duration among nonpregnant non-users below age 45. The proportion of women who were currently not pregnant and had remained infertile over the past 7 years is higher among the older non-users whose 1st child was born more than 10 years ago.     

Determinants of territorial exogamy in Friuli (north-east Italy) in the second half of the nineteenth century

The aim of this study was to identify the characteristics of individuals who formed exogamic marriages in the Friuli region (north-east Italy) during the second half of the 19th century. Logistic regression models were devised to measure the influence of the determinants of exogamic marriage, taking into account not only variables related to context but also spouses' economic, social and cultural characteristics. The determinants of exogamic marriage differ for men and women, and also vary by region due to differences in geographical mobility and size of the marriage market. The majority of exogamic spouses belong to one of two categories: either older individuals, often, especially in the case of men, with a previous marriage; or the upper social classes.     

1961-2017年环渤海地区气象干旱时空特征及致灾危险性评估

基于1961-2017年环渤海地区60个地面气象站点的逐日气温和降水资料,计算了各站点逐日气象干旱综合指数（Meteorological drought Composite Index,MCI）,统计近57年各站点的气象干旱过程,并进一步分析了环渤海地区各季节气象干旱的时空变化特征及致灾危险性等级分布。结果表明：（1）环渤海地区春季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈下降趋势,但干旱强度有所增加,夏、秋两季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈上升趋势,而干旱强度有所减少,冬季干旱覆盖范围和干旱强度均呈增加状态,干旱持续日数有所下降。（2）春季干旱覆盖范围、干旱持续日数、干旱强度以及干旱发生频率均居四季之首,干旱状况最严重,夏、秋季次之,冬季最轻。（3）各季节干旱强度和干旱发生频率的高值区主要分布在辽宁西北部、河北中南部以及山东大部分地区,低值区主要位于辽宁东部地区。（4）各季节干旱致灾危险性等级总体呈西高东低、南高北低的分布特征,其中,河北中南部气象干旱的致灾危险性较高,辽宁东部的较低;春旱致灾危险性总体较高,夏、秋季次之,冬季最低。     

HAS ACTUARIAL AGING “SLOWED” OVER THE PAST 250 YEARS? A COMPARISON OF SMALL‐SCALE SUBSISTENCE POPULATIONS AND EUROPEAN COHORTS

G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's ω, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60–70, m '_60–70, and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz–Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.     

A population-based age-period-cohort study of colorectal cancer incidence comparing Asia against the West

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide but incidence varied widely. Despite the role of genetics, CRC is also sensitive to macro-environmental factors. Few studies have ever compared across different countries/regions to suggest possible macro-environmental risk factors of CRC. We estimated the effects of age, period and cohort on the changes of incidence of colorectal cancer across different countries/regions.MethodsPoisson regression age-period-cohort (APC) models were conducted to estimate the age, period and cohorts effects on CRC incidence across the West (i.e., the UK, the US and Australia) and Asia (i.e. Japan, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and India). We maximized the length of the study period according to each country’s data availability.ResultsWestern populations show upward inflections for their 1950s–1960s cohorts, while Asian populations (except India) show downward inflections for their 1950s cohorts. Japanese population also shows upward inflections for its 1960s cohorts, similar to the Western populations. There are apparent upward inflections towards the more recent cohorts for Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore; nevertheless, the confidence intervals are wider towards the more recent cohorts.ConclusionOur findings imply an increasing risk of CRC in both Western and Asian populations as their younger cohorts reach older ages. These findings are consistent with the life course argument that macro-environmental changes associated with socio-economic development have specific effects that extend over the life course. Actions that pertain to altering lifestyle-related exposures over the life course are of great importance in combating young CRC risks in the future.     

Mercury free operation of the Coulter counter MultiSizer II sampling stand

Electronic particle counters have gained widespread acceptance as a means to measure osmotic properties of cell membranes. Because most current instruments do not allow for the collection of true volume as a function of time data, investigators use older models such as the MultiSizer II sampling stand. A significant drawback to this and other older models is that they rely on mercury to maintain a constant pressure and to connect electrodes. The presence of mercury is a human health hazard that is exacerbated by the sometimes irregular vacuum pressures that cause mercury spills inside of the machine. To eliminate this hazard, we have determined that the MultiSizer II model can be simply and easily modified to function and collect temporal volume data without the use of mercury.     

Influence of trial duration on the bias of the estimated treatment effect in clinical trials when individual heterogeneity is ignored

In randomized clinical trials where the times to event of two treatment groups are compared under a proportional hazards assumption, it has been established that omitting prognostic factors from the model entails an underestimation of the hazards ratio. Heterogeneity due to unobserved covariates in cancer patient populations is a concern since genomic investigations have revealed molecular and clinical heterogeneity in these populations. In HIV prevention trials, heterogeneity is unavoidable and has been shown to decrease the treatment effect over time. This article assesses the influence of trial duration on the bias of the estimated hazards ratio resulting from omitting covariates from the Cox analysis. The true model is defined by including an unobserved random frailty term in the individual hazard that reflects the omitted covariate. Three frailty distributions are investigated: gamma, log‐normal, and binary, and the asymptotic bias of the hazards ratio estimator is calculated. We show that the attenuation of the treatment effect resulting from unobserved heterogeneity strongly increases with trial duration, especially for continuous frailties that are likely to reflect omitted covariates, as they are often encountered in practice. The possibility of interpreting the long‐term decrease in treatment effects as a bias induced by heterogeneity and trial duration is illustrated by a trial in oncology where adjuvant chemotherapy in stage 1B NSCLC was investigated.     

Duration between marriage and first birth and marital instability

This paper considers whether marital instability varies by the duration between marriage and 1st birth among ever-married white and black American women. Analysis of data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey suggests that the duration between marriage and 1st birth has a generally monotonic relationship with the probability of white women separating or divorcing from their 1st marriage; the relationship has remained relatively constant over time. For blacks, no consistent association is found between marital dissolution and the duration between marriage and 1st birth. Black women having a premarital conception and postmarital birth and those having their 1st birth during their 2nd year of marriage have a similarly high risk of dissolution. Conversely, blacks having their 1st birth 8-12 or 25-42 months after marrying have a low probability of dissolution. Childless women and those with premarital births generally has the greatest probability of marital disruption for whites. Racial differences may occur because blacks view the 1st birth and marriage differently than whites. That is, because blacks are much more likely to have premarital births and to have a shorter duration between marriage and 1st birth, blacks and whites in the same 1st birth interval category may be dissimilar and have different values resulting in a differential effect of the timing of the 1st birth on marital instability by race. Caution is needed when interpreting the pattern of association between delayed childbearing (and to a lesser extent, births occuring a few years after marriage) and marital instability. Results for whites were similar at each marriage duration and it is assumed delayed childbearing was not a result of marital instability. Marital instability was expected to have its strongest effect on the timing of the 1st birth during the 1st years of marriage. Marital instability may be partially responsible for the delaying of childbearing among blacks. However, blacks who delay but are married at 1st birth have a relatively low risk of separating or divorcing.     

Rethinking the Taiwanese minor marriage data: evidence the mind uses multiple kinship cues to regulate inbreeding avoidance

Natural experiments such as the Israeli Kibbutzim and Taiwanese minor marriages provide unique opportunities for testing the effects of childhood association on adult sexual attraction. Within these populations, early childhood association leads to the development of a sexual aversion, an effect first proposed by Edward Westermarck. However, recent analysis of Taiwanese minor marriages indicates that only the age at first association (an inverse index of childhood association) of the younger partner predicts marital fertility rates; the age at first association of the older partner does not. Although considered a puzzle, a recent model of human inbreeding avoidance can explain this pattern. This model suggests that the mind uses at least two kinship cues to regulate the development of sibling sexual aversions: (i) childhood coresidence duration, a default cue used mainly by younger siblings in detecting probable older siblings, and (ii) exposure to one's mother caring for a newborn, a cue only available to older siblings and reliable regardless of coresidence duration and, hence, age at first association. Thus, one reason that the age at first association of only the younger partner in minor marriages predicts fertility is that coresidence duration serves as a cue to siblingship mainly for younger partners; older partners use a different kinship cue not influenced by durations of association. When compared to data from psychological investigations of the effects of coresidence duration on opposition to sibling incest, the minor marriage data reveal an identical pattern providing converging lines of evidence that multiple kinship cues mediate sibling detection and inbreeding avoidance in humans.