Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables.

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: Analysis of intermediate variables

Abstract

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One‐per‐Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In‐depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

The cultural evolution of fertility decline

Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline.     

Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns,determinants and implications

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.     

Greater than expected fertility decline in Ghana: untangling a puzzle

This study examines fertility decline that is larger than expected on the basis of recorded increases in contraceptive prevalence in Ghana. The primary sources of data are three Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in the country in 1988, 1993 and 1998. First, the trend in fertility and contraceptive prevalence in Ghana is considered and compared with the trend that would be expected on the basis of prior research. Next, an attempt is made to uncover the explanation behind this unexpected trend. Measures of the quality of the survey data are looked at, as well as trends in the proximate determinants of fertility: contraceptive use, marriage and sexual activity, postpartum insusceptibility and induced abortion. Finally, evidence is presented that couples adjust their coital frequency in accordance with their fertility preferences, behaviour that would influence fertility rates but would not be captured by conventional measures of the proximate determinants of fertility.     

Multivariate analysis of motherwort germplasm in Iran using morphological variables and essential oil content

The morphological variation and essential oil content of 150 individuals of motherwort (Leonurus cardiaca) from six natural regions of Iran were examined biometrically based on multivariate analysis. The highest variation was observed in plant height, length of main stems, main inflorescence length, floral cycles of main stem, lateral branches length, basal leaf length, floral leaf length width, flower length, and calyx color. Results of simple correlation analysis showed the existence of significant positive and negative correlations among some important parameters. The highest correlation was observed between plant height and length of main stems and between lateral branch length and lower surface color of leaf. Populations were clustered in two groups representing subspecies cardiaca and persicus. The subspecies cardiaca populations were closely related with each other and differentiated from the subspecies persicus by pubescence stems and leaves, more number of floral cycles, higher compaction of floral cycles, lower number of lateral branches, shorter length of petioles and leaves and smaller floral leaves. Essential oil yields varied from 0.02 (for Taleghan population) to 0.053 mg/100 g dry mater (for Kerman population). The conservation of the highly diverse native populations of Iranian motherwort germplasm is recommended.     

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased—indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual.     

The prevalence and fertility of hydatid cysts in buffaloes from Iran

Cystic echinococcosis caused by Echinococcus granulosus is considered to be an important parasitic infection in livestock. In the present study, which aimed to determine the epidemiology of hydatidosis in buffalo in Iran, slaughterhouses of West Azerbaijan (Urmia), East Azerbaijan (Tabriz), Ardabil (Ardabil), Gilan (Rasht and Hashtpar) and Khuzestan (Ahvaz) were inspected. Age, sex and infected organs were recorded separately, and the observed cysts were examined for fertility and viability. Our results showed that 344 (9%) of 3832 inspected buffaloes were infected with hydatid cysts. The maximum and minimum infection rates occurred in Khuzestan (9.9%) and Ardabil (8%) provinces, respectively. There was no significant difference in the rate of infection in all provinces. Of 344 infected buffaloes, the rate of fertility was 7.3% and the rate of viability in fertile cysts was 78.75%. Hydatid cysts were more prevalent in female compared with male buffaloes (P < 0.05). There was a positive correlation between the age and number of infected hosts in all provinces except East Azerbaijan. The prevalence of infection in lungs was significantly higher than that in the livers of buffaloes in the provinces studied (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the fertility of hydatid cysts in buffaloes was low, as previously demonstrated in cattle, and this animal may play a minor role in the epidemiology of hydatidosis in Iran.     

Variation in wealth and educational drivers of fertility decline across 45 countries

Fertility decline in human populations is an inherent evolutionary puzzle with major demographic, socio-cultural and evolutionary consequences. The individual level predictors of fertility decline are numerous, but the way these effects vary by country and how they are causally mediated by other factors has received relatively little attention. Here we take a multilevel approach to compare similarities and differences in the primary predictors of contemporary fertility declines—wealth and education—across 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected from 2003 to 2015. We use multilevel models to understand variation in the slopes of these predictors on fertility, and structural equation models to examine the causal pathways by which they take their effects, focusing on four mediating variables: local mortality and birth rates, women’s work status, and contraceptive use. We find that associations between wealth and fertility differ substantially across populations, while associations between education and fertility are consistently negative. The mediators also vary: community-level birth rates and women’s contraceptive use are important mediators between education, wealth and the number of children born across a wide variety of countries, but community-level mortality rates and women’s work status are not. We discuss our results in the context of different causal pathways that reflect cultural and biological evolutionary dynamics as simultaneous and interacting drivers of fertility decline.     

Armillaria mellea as a cause of oak decline in Hatam-baigh forest of Iran

A200 ha forest of "Hatam-baig" is located in Ardebil Province on the Northwest of Iran. Oak trees (Quercus macranthera Fisch & Mey) in this forest have been faced with declining and extinction since 1991, that has destructed about one third of the forest trees until now. This disorder was expressed in various symptoms including wilting, defoliation and decline. In order to identify factors causing decline, a study was managed from 1998 to 2001. Samples were taken from roots, trunks, crowns and soil beneath the canopy and were cultured on different culture media subsequently. Armillaria mellea (Vahl) P. Kumm., Phytophthora cryptogea Pethybr. & Laff., Dematophora sp., Pythium aphanidermatum (Edson) Fitzp. and Fusarium spp. were the most common isolated fungi. A. mellea appeared to be the essential causal agent of the decline according to the studies made on oak tress decline around the world and based on brown rot observed beneath mycelial fans in the cross section prepared from the trunk and characteristics of the isolated fungi. The fungus activity had been favored by physiological weakness and stresses in oak rootstocks caused by brown- tail moth (Euproctis chrysorhoea L.) and drought stress in infected trees. The biological species of this fungus was identified as Armillaria mellea, using hybridization tests and application of haploid test strains. The fungi such as Phytophthora sp., Pythium sp., and Dematophora sp. can not be infective in this forest due to being hydrophylous. In the southern part of the forest with remarked steepness, the severity of the decline appears to be more than that in the smoothly northern part. The decline of Q. macranthera is reported as matrix nova. The report of the isolated fungi from this oak species is also universally new.     

Bounds on direct effects in the presence of confounded intermediate variables

Summary .   This article considers the problem of estimating the average controlled direct effect (ACDE) of a treatment on an outcome, in the presence of unmeasured confounders between an intermediate variable and the outcome. Such confounders render the direct effect unidentifiable even in cases where the total effect is unconfounded (hence identifiable). Kaufman et al. (2005, Statistics in Medicine 24, 1683–1702) applied a linear programming software to find the minimum and maximum possible values of the ACDE for specific numerical data. In this article, we apply the symbolic Balke–Pearl (1997, Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1171–1176) linear programming method to derive closed-form formulas for the upper and lower bounds on the ACDE under various assumptions of monotonicity. These universal bounds enable clinical experimenters to assess the direct effect of treatment from observed data with minimum computational effort, and they further shed light on the sign of the direct effect and the accuracy of the assessments.     

Differential fertility in Bangladesh: A path analysis

Abstract

This study attempts to show both theoretically and empirically the causal links between selected background, socioeconomic, and demographic variables, on the one hand, and between these variables and cumulative fertility, on the other. Two distinct models, urban and rural, emerge as a result of a statistical test. In both models, neither wife's nor husband's childhood background is found to have any significant direct effects on fertility. Wife's age, religion, and age at marriage are the common variables which directly affect the number of children ever born. While age and religion bear positive direct effects, age at marriage exerts a negative direct effect. The indirect effect of religion is positive both in the rural and urban area. Both the direct and indirect effects of wife's education on fertility in urban Bangladesh are negative. Husband's education, in contrast, has a positive direct effect in the urban area and no effect at all in the rural area.     

Rapid loss of an ecosystem engineer: Sphagnum decline in an experimentally warmed bog

Sphagnum mosses are keystone components of peatland ecosystems. They facilitate the accumulation of carbon in peat deposits, but climate change is predicted to expose peatland ecosystem to sustained and unprecedented warming leading to a significant release of carbon to the atmosphere. Sphagnum responses to climate change, and their interaction with other components of the ecosystem, will determine the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. We measured the growth and productivity of Sphagnum in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, where ten 12.8‐m‐diameter plots were exposed to a range of whole‐ecosystem (air and soil) warming treatments (+0 to +9°C) in ambient or elevated (+500 ppm) CO₂. The experiment is unique in its spatial and temporal scale, a focus on response surface analysis encompassing the range of elevated temperature predicted to occur this century, and consideration of an effect of co‐occurring CO₂ altering the temperature response surface. In the second year of warming, dry matter increment of Sphagnum increased with modest warming to a maximum at 5°C above ambient and decreased with additional warming. Sphagnum cover declined from close to 100% of the ground area to <50% in the warmest enclosures. After three years of warming, annual Sphagnum productivity declined linearly with increasing temperature (13–29 g C/m² per °C warming) due to widespread desiccation and loss of Sphagnum. Productivity was less in elevated CO₂ enclosures, which we attribute to increased shading by shrubs. Sphagnum desiccation and growth responses were associated with the effects of warming on hydrology. The rapid decline of the Sphagnum community with sustained warming, which appears to be irreversible, can be expected to have many follow‐on consequences to the structure and function of this and similar ecosystems, with significant feedbacks to the global carbon cycle and climate change.     

Intermediate variables in the explanation of differential fertility: Results of a village study in rural Java

A tendency for fertility to be higher among middle-class women than among lower-class women has been found in all the recent sources of data on fertility levels and patterns in Indonesia. After briefly reviewing these findings, this article presents the results of a community study in rural Java which systematically investigates the positive relation between fertility and socioeconomic status, focusing on the so- called intermediate variables (first inventoried by Davis and Blake in 1956) which directly determine fertility. Differential patterns of marital stability, secondary sterility, and the practice of postpartum abstinence in particular were found to contribute to the contrasts in fertility levels observed. The use of modern contraceptives, a recent innovation at the time of the study, was found to a greater extent among middle-class women, and may prove to be an important determinant of future patterns of fertility and fertility differentials.This article is based on a study of fertility patterns undertaken in Yogyakarta during 1972–1973. The research was funded by the Australian National University. A complete account of the research findings is contained in Hull (1975), and a detailed analysis of the topics discussed here can be found in Hull (1976).     

Morphogenesis in Volvox: analysis of critical variables.

Inversion, the process by which Volvox embryos turn inside out, was analyzed by a combination of geometrical and experimental techniques. It was shown that simple geometric figures are adequate to represent cell shapes during inversion and that cell volumes remain constant as cell shapes change and the embryo inverts. The first stage of inversion, phialopore opening, results from the release of compressive forces as the embryo withdraws from its surrounding vesicle during a two-stage contraction of each cell around its radial axis. Premature phialopore opening occurs when withdrawal of the embryo from the vesicle is elicited artificially by exposure to either calcium ionophore or hypertonic solutions. The major event of inversion, generation of negative curvature, requires both microtubule-driven elongation of cells (to produce a classical "flask" shape) and cytochalasin-sensitive active migration of cytoplasmic bridges to the outermost ends of flask cells. Colchicine, cyclic GMP and isobutyl methyl xanthine (individually) block both normal elongation and bridge migration; cytochalasin D blocks bridge migration selectively. Flask cell formation and bridge migration are adequate to account for the negative curvature observed. An asymmetric bending of flask cell stalks along the ring of maximum curvature accounts for the fact that the embryo is not constricted in a "purse-string" fashion as negative curvature is generated. Inversion of the posterior hemisphere involves an elastic snap-through resulting from a combination of compressive stresses generated by inversion of the anterior hemisphere and the circumferential restraint imposed by cells at the equator. We conclude that the observed changes in cell shape and the migration of cytoplasmic bridges are the result of an ordered process of membrane-cytoskeletal interactions, and both necessary and sufficient to account for the morphogenetic process of inversion in Volvox.     

基于环境辅助变量的拔山茶园土壤肥力空间预测

以地形因子、植被覆盖度等为辅助变量,利用回归克里格法预测低山丘陵区茶园土壤肥力,分析了富阳市拔山茶园土壤肥力的空间变异规律.结果表明:相对高程、平/纵向曲率等结构性因素是引起研究区土壤肥力空间变异的主要原因,研究区土壤肥力沿海拔高度呈垂直变化,随着海拔高度的降低土壤肥力水平也逐渐降低;拔山茶园土壤肥力总体较高,肥力较低的区域面积仅占研究区总面积的5%.回归克里格法所得土壤肥力的预测精度明显高于普通克里格,其平均预测误差和预测均方根误差分别为0.028和0.108.该方法能充分反映环境变量对土壤肥力的影响,提高土壤肥力的空间预测精度,可为茶园的精准管理提供依据.     

Biotic and abiotic factors associated with citrus progressive decline in Fars Province,Iran

Citrus decline has become a devastating problem in citrus-growing regions of southern Iran. The affected trees show progressive yellowing of leaves, thinning of the canopy, dieback and total collapse. Despite a number of attempts, the aetiology of the decline has remained uncertain. In the present study, we evaluated the potential association of various biotic and abiotic factors with the decline in the Fars Province of Iran. Biotic agents surveyed included Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus, Spiroplasma citri, phytoplasmas, Tylenchulus semipenetrans and root infecting fungi and oomycetes. Abiotic factors studied were soil and water salinity, changes in prevailing temperature and other environmental conditions. In our surveys, Ca. L. asiaticus, either alone or in combination with other factors, had the highest frequency of association (92%) with the decline, followed by S. citri (75%). Ca. L. asiaticus was not detected in any of the non-decline trees examined. Pythium or Phytophthora species and a fungus of theFusarium solani species complex were also isolated from roots of many declining trees. Phytoplasmas were found only in few cases, and populations of citrus nematode were often below the threshold of economic loss. Soil/water salinity were in the suitable range for citrus cultivation in most cases. It is suggested that the decline is initiated by Ca. L. asiaticus infection, which is known to weaken the root system and make it vulnerable to infection by opportunistic soil fungi and oomycetes. S. citri, summer temperatures, low air humidity and overbearing of the trees seem to be other potential factors contributing to the intensity of the disease.