迁飞性害虫监测预警技术发展概况与应用展望

迁飞性害虫具有突发性、暴发性和毁灭性的发生特点,做好迁飞性害虫的监测预警在粮食安全生产方面具有重要意义.为加强迁飞性害虫监测预警技术手段的应用与推广,提高迁飞性害虫的监测预警水平,本文从常规和现代监测技术入手,综述了我国迁飞性害虫监测预警技术的发展、研究现状和取得的进展,分析了迁飞性害虫监测预警面临的瓶颈问题,展望了做好迁飞性害虫监测预警的努力方向,以期为提高我国迁飞性害虫的监测预警水平提供参考.     

郑州第三代稻纵卷叶螟成虫迁入和天气条件的关系

害虫迁飞规律的揭示为害虫的预测预报工作开拓了新的探索领域,许多昆虫学工作者和气象工作者致力于气象因素与迁飞关系的研究,进行害虫长期数量预报。赵圣菊(1984)建立了粘虫一代发生区的发生期、发生量的长期预报模式.宋祥燕(1983)分析了迁飞的气象条件,作了稻纵卷叶螟迁飞期、迁飞量的预报尝试。程极益等(1985)用PC-1500微型机以3—5月的气象资料作为参量预报稻纵卷叶螟的发生程度。我们为了预报郑州地区第三代稻纵卷叶螟成虫迁入数量,用IBM电子计算机分析了1978—1985年的气象资料和虫情资料,筛选了主要生态因素,组建了预报方程。材料和方法稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis)     

农业害虫跨越渤海的迁飞规律与控制策略

迁飞是农业害虫适应环境变化、保障种群繁衍的季节性转移为害策略。受东亚季风气候的影响,农业害虫在中国迁飞致灾问题十分严重。我们自2003年起,在农业昆虫自华北及其以南地区迁入东北地区的必经之地,位于渤海中间的山东省长岛县北隍城岛(38°24′N;120°55′E),系统监测研究了迁飞昆虫的种类组成、群落结构、种群动态、生理生化特征和季节性迁飞规律。研究表明,跨越渤海迁飞的昆虫种类有9目36科120余种,以棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner)、粘虫Mythimna separate (Walker)等鳞翅目害虫为优势种类。多数种类呈现迁飞性昆虫的生理生化特征,春季和夏初种群多数个体卵巢发育成熟、交配基本完成,显示迁飞末期的生殖特征,夏末和秋季种群卵巢尚未发育、交配率低,显示迁飞初期的生殖特点。对迁飞路径的分析表明,迁飞类型可分为以亚洲玉米螟Ostrinianubilalis(Hübner)和绿盲蝽Apolyguslucorum (Meyer-Dür)为代表的单个夜晚为主的近距离迁飞,其迁移距离多在200 km以内;以棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner)和二点委夜蛾Athetis lepigone (M?schler)为代表的1-2个夜晚为主的中距离迁飞,其迁移距离多在500km以内;以及以小地老虎Agrotisypsilon(Rottemberg)和粘虫Mythimna separate (Walker)为代表的多个夜晚的远距离迁飞,其迁移距离多远于500 km。文中基于这些害虫的迁飞生物学特征和迁飞规律,提出了以"阻断成虫迁飞过程"为核心的防控策略。     

监测害虫迁飞的全自动雷达

在过去30年里,专用昆虫雷达大大深化了我们对昆虫迁飞,尤其是在高达1km高度夜间迁飞的认识。早期的昆虫雷达无法开展长期监测,这种缺陷现已被一种新型的全自动雷达所克服。这种“昆虫监测雷达”（IMR）造价低廉,可自动采集并通过电话网远程传输观测数据。其ZLC制式使其能够获得高质量的迁飞个体的飞行参数从而提高目标鉴别能力。目前,在澳大利亚东部的半干旱内陆地区,即迁飞性鳞翅目害虫和澳大利亚疫hortoicetes terminifera)的虫源区,装置了两部IMR并连续监测其迁飞活动,本报告了这两部雷达的部分监测结果。IMR能提供构成昆虫迁飞系统所需的若干参数,即估测迁飞事件在特定季节,特定方向响应于特定环境条件和信号而发生的概率,为害虫治理机构和测报人员提供对主要迁入事件及其目标害虫可能在迁入区的预警,而且,IMR还可用于更广泛的生态监测,特别是空中生物流量年际变化的定量监测。     

新疆蝗虫及其监控技术研究进展

因蝗虫种群种类多、分布范围广,导致新疆是我国蝗虫灾害发生最突出、最典型的地区,也是遭受邻国蝗虫跨境危害最严重的地区。本文概述了几十年来新疆蝗虫基础理论研究及监测预警与防控技术进展,同时总结了中哈边境蝗虫跨境迁飞过程及雷达监测的最新研究结果,并就中亚迁飞场理论和实证研究、区域迁飞害虫监测网络平台建立和生物防治技术三个方面进行了展望,以期为监测和治理新疆本地蝗虫及西北边境迁飞害虫提供科学依据和技术支撑。     

迁飞昆虫的研究进展

昆虫迁飞是自然界普遍存在的一种现象,是昆虫在长期进化过程中形成的对环境的一种适应性,是为了减少竞争、躲避周围的不良环境或逃避天敌等而离开原来的生境,为了开拓新的资源而到达另一个生境的一种行为,它使该虫种得以繁衍。许多典型的迁飞昆虫都是重要的农业害虫,因此研究昆虫迁飞对掌握其灾变规律,提高人类控制害虫为害的能力有重大实践意义。本文拟从昆虫迁飞特点、影响迁飞昆虫的环境因子以及迁飞昆虫的生物学特性等方面对昆虫迁飞进行较系统的综述。１昆虫迁飞特点迁飞过去认为是主动地从一个地方飞到另一个地方,是较大范围内…     

昆虫迁飞轨迹的数值模拟(英文)

国内外目前应用的迁飞轨迹模型都是大气扩散模型,其时空分辨率难以满足昆虫迁飞轨迹分析的要求,且均未考虑迁飞昆虫自身的行为反应。本文通过将昆虫迁飞行为参数化,并选用一维ＴＫＥ模式,以国家气象局的常规气象资料为基础,以Ｅ－ε闭合求其数值解,模拟出边界层内任意迁飞高度上的风温要素值,从而建立起以边界层气象学和昆虫迁飞行为生态学为基础的昆虫迁飞轨迹分析的数值模型,为昆虫迁飞行为研究和迁飞性害虫的异地预测提供了一个有效的工具,并以国内粘虫、草地螟和小地老虎的标放回收试验结果,进行了个例分析和检验。     

褐飞虱迁飞参数的数值模拟

迁飞性害虫褐飞虱对中国和亚洲其它国家和地区的水稻有着十分严重的危害,其迁飞参数的时空变化是种群迁飞这一生态行为的重要体现。应用目前国际上先进的中尺度数值预报模式MM5 (V3.2 )对我国褐飞虱北迁、南返的过程进行了数值模拟,根据模拟结果对害虫的迁出虫源地、迁飞路径、降落区、空中迁飞速率、迁飞高度、迁飞历时和迁飞距离等迁飞参数进行了一系列的数值计算和客观分析,得到了与实际虫情普查和雷达观测资料相当吻合的结果,从而比较精确地阐明了褐飞虱迁出起飞、空中定向飞行、降落迁入等迁飞行为的动力学机制。     

中国主要鳞翅目农业害虫迁飞致灾机制研究与展望

害虫迁飞是长期适应不稳定的农田环境进化形成的通过飞行开拓新生境、调节种群结构和维持种群繁衍的重要生活史对策,也是其经常暴发成灾的主要原因.迁飞害虫暴发是由其本身生物学习性与外部环境相协调的结果,特别是进化出一系列有利于种群生存、繁衍和增长的适应性生活史策略.对黏虫(Mythimna seperata)、草地螟(Loxostege sticticalis)、甜菜夜蛾(Spodoptera exigua)和稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis)等主要农业害虫的迁飞致灾机制研究表明,这些害虫迁飞已不仅是简单地通过扩大危害区域或增加危害发生频次而加剧灾害,而且进化形成了一系列适应性促进种群暴发的新机制,包括:(ⅰ)适宜的迁飞行为不仅不会以生殖力下降为代价,而且还会促进种群同步生殖,从而加剧后代集中危害;(ⅱ)迁飞型不仅可通过成虫远距离迁飞逃避天敌攻击和病原物侵染,而且在幼虫期还形成了比居留型更强的防御能力,从而有效抵抗天敌和病原物,有利于种群生存、增长与迁飞危害;(ⅲ)黏虫和草地螟进化出了在极端环境下迁飞行为"二次调控"的弹性策略,从而由迁飞型转化为居留型而在本地快速产卵危害;(ⅳ)甜菜夜蛾缺乏"卵子发生-飞行拮抗"综合症,边生殖边迁飞导致危害扩大,且对低剂量毒物显示促进迁飞危害效应.本文根据目前害虫迁飞致灾机制研究现状,提出加强昆虫迁飞行为调控的遗传基础研究,完善迁飞行为的导航与降落机制研究以及开拓害虫迁飞与免互作研究等.     

我国农作物重大迁飞性害虫发生为害及监测预报技术

文章概述了我国一类农作物病虫害中7种(类)迁飞性害虫发生为害概况,即是我国三大粮食作物上为害最为严重的害虫,发生区域涵盖我国粮食作物种植区,且存在国内外虫源交流;概述了成虫种群监测、雌蛾卵巢发育分级、翅型调查、异地预报等迁飞性害虫监测预报技术;提出了需要对迁飞性害虫成灾机理、智能化监测工具和迁飞关键路径进行研究,努力建成全国空天地一体化监测网络,实现迁飞性害虫的精准预报的建议.     

FORECASTING AND MANAGEMENT OF MIGRATORY PESTS IN AUSTRALIA

Abstract  The Decision Support System (DSS) used by the Australian Plague Locust Commission for management of several important migratory insect pests in Australia is described. The DSS is based on a Geographic Information System that integrates data on weather and habitat condition with the migration, development and distribution of the pest to prepare forecasts and aid decisions for control. The GIS is module based with the number and nature of the modules easily modified depending on the detail of data required to manage the pest concerned.     

Decision support systems for aquaculture licensing

Models used to assess the environmental impacts of aquaculture are becoming increasingly numerous and complicated. It is therefore becoming more and more difficult to present these moiels to non-scientists, even though the ultimate clients of research on aquaculture impacts are administrators and producers who have to deal with ractical considerations and have little time or inclination to deal with the complexities of scientific morfels. The Aquaculture Research Group within the Habitat Ecology Division has therefore been exploring the development of a decision support system (DSS) as a tool for communicating scientific advice to managers, specifically addressing the use of models to evaluate environmental impacts in order to assess whether the licensing of finfish aquaculture sites is likely to lead to degradation of natural marine habitat. The proposed DSS will incorporate simplified versions of several models along with a geographical data base of relevant hydrographic and other environmental information. The user will be able to enter various scenarios in a simple fashion (for example, a mouse can be used to specify site locations) and see an evaluation of the proposal based on several scientific models. Although a computer program cannot be expected to represent more than a fraction of the expertise of real scientists, the DSS approach appears to have several advantages; these include the ability to deliver a degree of expertise in remote and isolated regions, and, perhaps most important, a chance for managers to access scientific resources in a private environment which lets them explore various options without having to justify their eventual actions to scientists who may not fully appreciate all the pressures which bear on their decisions. The material developed so far includes a prototype of the proposed DSS in form of a computer program which demonstrates what the user interface for a working DSf would look like. The program has only a crude graphical user interface and does not actually interact with a real database, but the models are realistic and the output offers a simplified representation of what a real Decision Support System might provide.     

Accurate identification of taxon-specific molecular markers in plants based on DNA signature sequence

Accurate identification of plants remains a significant challenge for taxonomists and is the basis for plant diversity conservation. Although DNA barcoding methods are commonly used for plant identification, these are limited by the low amplification success and low discriminative power of selected genomic regions. In this study, we developed a k-mer–based approach, the DNA signature sequence (DSS), to accurately identify plant taxon-specific markers, especially at the species level. DSS is a constant-length nucleotide sequence capable of identifying a taxon and distinguishing it from other taxa. In this study, we performed the first large-scale study of DSS markers in plants. DSS candidates of 3899 angiosperm plant species were calculated based on a chloroplast data set with 4356 assemblies. Using Sanger sequencing of PCR amplicons and high-throughput sequencing, DSSs were validated in four and 165 species, respectively. Based on this, the universality of the DSSs was over 79.38%. Several indicators influencing DSS marker identification and detection have also been evaluated, and common criteria for DSS application in plant identification have been proposed.     

Differentials of fertility between polygynous and monogamous marriages in rural Bangladesh

This paper discusses polygynous marriages in rural Bangladesh, using marital status and birth registration data from the Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, for the period 1975-79. Of all the marriages recorded during this period about 5% were polygynous. To identify the women polygynously married, 1974 census data of the DSS area were used. The difference in age at marriage between the polygynous groom and his subsequent wife was 15 years on average. The socioeconomic indicators studied were education, occupation and area of dwelling space. In general, these indicators between women in monogamous marriages were significantly higher than between the women in polygynous unions. During the period 1976-79, 863 polygynous marriages were recorded (4.9% of all marriages in the study area). Polygynous marriages were found to be less frequent among men with 2ndary and higher levels of education. The highest proportion of polygynous marriages occurred among husbands with no schooling or Koranic education. The general fertility rate of women in monogamous marriages was significantly higher than for women in polygynous marriages, overall and in all age groups except 20-24. During the period 1975-79, the mean number of liveborn children for monogamous women was higher than that of polygynous women.     

973项目“重大农业害虫猖獗危害的机制及可持续控制的基础研究”简介

2006年9月,国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)农业领域2006年度项目“重大农业害虫猖獗危害的机制及可持续控制的基础研究”经科技部批准正式立项启动。该项目以全系统管理思想为指导,在基因、个体、种群、生态系统等不同层次,阐明我国重大农业害虫种群分化与暴发的分子基础,解析害虫与寄主作物及天敌间的相互作用机制,建立害虫监测与预警系统,提出重大农业害虫可持续控制的新途径和新方法,为我国农业减灾、经济的可持续发展奠定科学基础。项目的主要研究内容包括:害虫生长发育与生殖调控的分子机制;害虫对环境胁迫的适应机制;杀虫药剂诱导害虫再猖獗的机制;害虫与寄主植物的协同进化;天敌与害虫的互作及控害机制;作物-害虫-天敌食物网关系及其调控机理;重大害虫区域性暴发监测与预警。项目的总体目标为:阐明害虫生长发育、种群分化的分子基础,揭示害虫种群调节的内在机制;解析作物、害虫及天敌间的互作机制,丰富和发展植物-害虫-天敌协同进化理论;阐明主要害虫区域性灾变机理,发展害虫预警新技术;发展与环境相容的、增强自然控害功能的新技术,提出重大农业害虫可持续控制的新途径和新方法;凝炼一支害虫控制基础研究的创新团队,丰富和发展我国害虫管理的科学理论与实践,提升我国有害生物防控的原始创新和集成创新能力,扩大国际影响。     

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment

This paper demonstrates the use of phenology models mapped over the landscape as a tool in support of risk assessments for nonindigenous plant pests. Drawing on the relationship between pest development and temperature, the approach uses gridded sequential interpolated temperatures at a resolution of 1 km, linked with phenology models, to predict the potential for a pest to develop throughout the landscape. The potential for establishment of Colorado beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) in England and Wales was used as an illustration. The likelihood of the pest completing a single generation during a 30‐year period (1961–90) was computed. Summaries of phenology, based firstly upon point temperature series from weather stations and secondly upon temperatures interpolated across the landscape, were compared. The results revealed that the use of point data led to a 70% likelihood of over‐estimating the area at risk from year to year. In the case of average long‐term risk however, the point‐based and landscape‐wide distributions of establishment potential were similar. We demonstrate how the use of phenology models running on a daily time scale provides date based results, so allowing outputs to be tied in with periods in the cropping cycle. The application of daily data in computing the phenological results, unlike the main body of published work on pest risk assessment which uses averaged monthly data, reflects more fully the underlying variability and degrees of sensitivity of the pest to changes in weather.     

ARIMA与SVM组合模型在害虫预测中的应用

害虫发生是一种复杂、 动态时间序列数据, 单一预测模型都是基于线性或非线性数据, 不能同时捕捉害虫发生的线性和非线性规律, 很难达到理想的预测精度。本研究首先采用差分自回归移动平均模型对昆虫发生时间序列进行线性建模, 然后采用支持向量机对非线性部分进行建模, 最后得到两种模型的组合预测结果。将组合模型应用到松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus发生面积的预测, 实验结果表明组合模型的预测精度明显优于单一模型, 发挥了两种模型各自的优势。组合模型是一种切实可行的害虫预测预报方法。     

Estimating the economic cost of one of the world's major insect pests, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): just how long is a piece of string?

Since 1993, the annual worldwide cost of diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), control has been routinely quoted to be US$1 billion. This estimate requires updating and incorporation of yield losses to reflect current total costs of the pest to the world economy. We present an analysis that estimates what the present costs are likely to be based on a set of necessary, but reasoned, assumptions. We use an existing climate driven model for diamondback moth distribution and abundance, the Food and Agriculture Organization country Brassica crop production data and various management scenarios to bracket the cost estimates. The "length of the string" is somewhere between US$1.3 billion and US$2.3 billion based on management costs. However, if residual pest damage is included then the cost estimates will be even higher; a conservative estimate of 5% diamondback moth-induced yield loss to all crops adds another US$2.7 billion to the total costs associated with the pest. A conservative estimate of total costs associated with diamondback moth management is thus US$4 billion-US$5 billion. The lower bound represents rational decision making by pest managers based on diamondback moth abundance driven by climate only. The upper estimate is due to the more normal practice of weekly insecticide application to vegetable crops and the assumption that canola (Brassica napus L.) is treated with insecticide at least once during the crop cycle. Readers can decide for themselves what the real cost is likely to be because we provide country data for further interpretation. Our analysis suggests that greater efforts at implementation of even basic integrated pest management would reduce insecticide inputs considerably, reducing negative environmental impacts and saving many hundreds of millions of dollars annually.     

Insect distribution in response to climate change based on a model: Review of function and use of CLIMEX

The significant dependence of agricultural productivity on pest control requires pest distribution predictions at an early stage of pest invasion. Because pest cycles are critically affected by climate, climate is one of the most important factors for predicting an invasive pest. CLIMEX is a highly effective tool that can predict potential geographical species distributions, and test the regional suitability for a target species' habitat based on data including climate change scenarios. CLIMEX has been recently used in Europe, North America, China and Australia, among others. However, for modeling species distributions in Korea, the use of the model has been limited to date. This study aimed to first introduce the function and application of CLIMEX by reviewing important studies using this model. Second, we investigated previous studies using the model simulation to demonstrate the practical applicability of CLIMEX for the agricultural sector, and its use in forecasting.     

The need for validation of large administrative databases: Veterans Health Administration ICD-9CM coding of exudative age-related macular degeneration and ranibizumab usage

We performed a validation study by chart review of data for exudative age-related macular degeneration (eAMD) and, because of the Veterans Administration (VA) therapy policy, ranibizumab usage in the largest electronic medical record system in the USA. We reviewed 5,854 distinct patients who visited an ophthalmology clinic within VA Connecticut from January 2006-December 2008. We randomly selected 98 of 138 distinct eAMD patients and 265 of 5,588 non-eAMD patients who did not receive ranibizumab. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification coding of eAMD had an excellent positive predictive value of 97.8% (95% confidence interval (CI), 93.5-99.4%). The national Decision Support System (DSS) had an excellent positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 79.9-100%) for ranibizumab. However, the negative predictive value of the DSS dispensed ranibizumab decreased to 67.5 (95% CI, 62.1-72.4) because of a change in the way local values were stored that led to errors. Therefore, validation of clinical information over time in large databases is necessary.