Assessing the climatic sensitivity of Douglas-fir at its northern range margins in British Columbia, Canada

Northern hemisphere tree species growing at their northern range margins may be particularly responsive to climate change and could provide important information regarding future broad-scale responses. We analyzed and compared tree-ring data between five Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Mirb.) Franco] populations growing at the species’ northernmost distribution in British Columbia, Canada, and five populations located 150 km to the southeast. We quantified climate–growth relationships using uni- and multivariate techniques at different temporal scales. Our data suggest that (1) even at its northernmost distributions, precipitation limits long-term mature Douglas-fir radial growth more than temperatures, (2) northernmost Douglas-fir populations are distinct from populations located further within the species’ range in terms of certain key short-term growth responses, and (3) northernmost Douglas-fir growth sensitivities to climate may be increasing over time. In the future, mature Douglas-fir productivity in the northern portion of its range may be primarily limited by precipitation, and responses may be strongest at the species’ range margins.     

Niche modelling and landscape genetics of Caryocar brasiliense (“Pequi” tree: Caryocaraceae) in Brazilian Cerrado: an integrative approach for evaluating central–peripheral population patterns

Complex and integrative approaches may be necessary to understand the abundant-centre model and the patterns in genetic diversity that may be explained by this model. Here we developed an integrated framework to study spatial patterns in genetic diversity within local populations, coupling genetic data, niche modelling and landscape genetics, and applied this framework to evaluate population structure of Caryocar brasiliense, an endemic tree from the Brazilian Cerrado. We showed different geographical patterns for genetic diversity, allelic richness and inbreeding levels, estimated using microsatellite data for ten local populations. Ecological suitability was estimating by combining five niche modelling techniques. Genetic diversity tend to follow a central-periphery model and is associated with ecological variables. On the other hand, inbreeding levels may be alternatively explained by isolation processes and habitat fragmentation more related to intense recent human occupation in the southern border of the biome, or by deeper historical patterns in the origin of the populations. Although still suffering from some of the problems of central-periphery analysis (small number of local populations), our analyses show how these patterns can be better investigated and offering a better understanding of the processes structuring genetic diversity within species’ geographic ranges.     

Unexpectedly low genetic divergences among populations of the threatened bog turtle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glyptemys muhlenbergii</Emphasis>)

We used mitochondrial DNA sequence comparisons to assess range-wide population structure and historical patterns of differentiation among populations of the bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii). This species is one of North America’s smallest and most endangered pond turtles, and is currently found in three largely disjunct groups of populations: in the southern U.S., in the northeast, and in the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario Plains region of western and central New York State. All the New York sites and most of the northeastern sites were glaciated during the Pleistocene. We surveyed 2793 bases pairs of mitochondrial DNA spanning three genes (cytb, nd4, and d-loop) in 41 individuals from 21 populations throughout most of the bog turtle’s distribution. We found surprisingly low levels of divergence among populations, even in southern populations that have been hypothesized as refugia during times of climate change. Our data suggest populations of bog turtle’s suffered a bottleneck, followed by a rapid post-Pleistocene expansion into northern segments of the species’ range. We discuss historical changes in habitat availability and climate that may have influenced the historical deployment of lineages in this species, and possible life history traits and habitat dynamics that might also contribute to the overall low genetic diversity across its range.     

Effects of past climate on Passiflora actinia (Passifloraceae) populations and insights into future species management in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest is one of the most diverse and threatened ecoregions on the planet and displays high levels of endemism. Despite several population analyses and phylogeographical studies, the origins of its species richness and the evolutionary processes that gave rise to this diversification remain poorly understood, especially at the southern edge of the Atlantic Forest. Passiflora actinia is an indigenous species from the southern Atlantic Forest and, as such, was influenced by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. In this study, we investigated the effects of past climate changes on the genetic diversity of P. actinia, using nuclear and plastid markers. We subsequently suggest strategies for the preservation of this species in particular and the whole ecoregion in general. We employed phylogeographical methods and combined these results with past, present and future ensemble niche models. Genetic variability in P. actinia was similar to that of other species with similar geographical distributions, and geographical structuring was not observed based on either type of genetic marker. Diversification in P. actinia was dated to the Pleistocene, suggesting that climate changes could have influenced the distribution of genetic diversity in this species. Our results predicted that suitable P. actinia habitat will persist in the highlands but will be reduced in the lowlands, especially with higher greenhouse gas concentrations. Conservation efforts should focus on populations with unique genetic units and populations from areas with greater climatic instability. Habitat loss due to deforestation in the Atlantic Forest constitutes a major risk to this species, especially to small populations or those with low diversity indices.     

Models of climate associations and distributions of amphibians in Italy

Analyzing the relationships between the distribution of animal species and climatic variables is not only important for understanding which factors govern species distribution but also for improving our ability to predict future ecological responses to climate change. In the context of global climate change, amphibians are of particular interest because of their extreme sensitivity to the variation of temperature and precipitation regimes. We analyzed species–climate relationships for 17 amphibian species occurring in Italy using species distribution data at the 10 × 10 km resolution. A machine learning method, Random Forests, was used to model the distribution of amphibians in relation to a set of 18 climatic variables. The results showed that the variables which had the highest importance were those related to precipitation, indicating that precipitation is an important factor in determining amphibian distribution. Future projections showed a complex response of species distributions, emphasizing the potential severity of climate change on the distributions of amphibians in Italy. The species that will decrease the most are those occurring in mountainous and Mediterranean areas. Our results provide some preliminary information that could be useful for amphibian conservation, indicating if future conservation priorities for some species should be enhanced.     

Relative contribution of vegetation types to regional biodiversity in Central Zagross forests of Iran

Managers in conservation biology are continually faced with the dilemma of needing to demonstrate which areas should receive conservation priority based on the diversity of species contained. Darenasab (Hashtadpahloo) forest catchment with dominated oak species in Mediterranean forests of Zagross in Iran was chosen as a case study. In order to estimate plant species richness in different vegetation types at landscape level, field method that sample both trees and herbs strata simultaneously (modified multi-scale Whittaker plots) was used to make species–area curves. Twenty-one modified multi-scale Whittaker plots (250 m² area) were located randomly in four vegetation types. Three species–area, species–log (area) and log (species)–log (area) curves models were constructed. The log (species)–log (area) model had the highest adjusted r² among others. Based on Jaccard’s coefficient, the pure oak vegetation type was the most heterogeneous (22% overlap), and the cushion plants vegetation type is the most homogeneous (29% overlap). The slope of species–area curves had the least range (0.05) and the slope of species–log (area) curves had the largest range (4.38). When the slopes of species–log (area) curves divided by mean Jaccard’s coefficient, the species–log (area) curves estimated values closest to those observed. The index of vegetation types contribution to regional diversity for determining conservation priority in off-reserve area, based on ranking of the observed mean species per plots, slopes of the species–log (area) curves, mean of Jaccard’s coefficient, mean unique species per plot, and the number of threatened species in each vegetation types were calculated. This composite index may provide a scientific method to rank vegetation types with high conservation value.     

Drainage-independent genetic structure and high genetic diversity of endangered freshwater pearl mussels (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Margaritifera margaritifera</Emphasis>) in northern Europe

Freshwater pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera) are among the most critically threatened bivalve molluscs worldwide. An understanding of spatial patterns of genetic diversity is crucial for the development of integrative conservation strategies. We used microsatellites to study the genetic diversity and differentiation of 14 populations of M. margaritifera in central Sweden, an area which was described as a major secondary contact zone in postglacial colonisation for other species. Genetic diversity of Swedish pearl mussel populations was much greater than in central and southern Europe but similar to the genetic diversity observed in the northeastern portion of their European range. Genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced but to a large extent independent from present-day drainage systems. The complex patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in pearl mussel seem to be strongly influenced by the species’ high degree of specialisation and extraordinary life history strategy which involves facultative hermaphrodism and an obligatory encystment stage on a host fish. Genetic drift effects and anthropogenic disturbances resulting in reduction of population size and loss of connectivity are less pronounced in northern pearl mussel populations compared to those in central and southern Europe.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on Australia's most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides

Aim  To predict how the bioclimatic envelope of the broad-headed snake (BHS) ( Hoplocephalus bungaroides ) may be redistributed under future climate warming scenarios.
Location  South-eastern New South Wales, Australia.
Methods  We used 159 independent locations for the species and 35 climatic variables to model the bioclimatic envelope for the BHS using two modelling approaches – B ioclim and M axent . Predictions were made under current climatic conditions and we also predicted the species distribution under low and high climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070.
Results  Broad-headed snakes currently encompass their entire bioclimatic envelope. Both modelling approaches predict that suitable climate space for BHS will be lost to varying degrees under both climate warming scenarios, and under the worst case, only 14% of known snake populations may persist.
Main conclusions  Areas of higher elevation within the current range will be most important for persistence of this species because they will remain relatively moist and cool even under climate change and will match the current climate envelope. Conservation efforts should focus on areas where suitable climate space may persist under climate warming scenarios. Long-term monitoring programs should be established both in these areas and where populations are predicted to become extirpated, so that we can accurately determine changes in the distribution of this species throughout its range.     

A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate

There is compelling evidence from glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary of the utilization of microrefugia. Microrefugia are sites that support locally favorable climates amidst unfavorable regional climates, which allow populations of species to persist outside of their main distributions. Knowledge of the location of microrefugia has important implications for climate change research as it will influence our understanding of the spatial distribution of species through time, their patterns of genetic diversity, and potential dispersal rates in response to climate shifts. Indeed, the implications of microrefugia are profound and yet we know surprisingly little about their climatic basis; what climatic processes can support their subsistence, where they may occur, their climatic traits, and the relevance of these locations for climate change research. Here I examine the climatic basis for microrefugia and assert that the interaction between regional advective influences and local terrain influences will define the distribution and nature of microrefugia. I review the climatic processes that can support their subsistence and from this climatic basis: (1) infer traits of the spatial distribution of microrefugia and how this may change through time; (2) review assertions about their landscape position and what it can tell us about regional climates; and (3) demonstrate an approach to forecasting where microrefugia may occur in the future. This synthesis highlights the importance of landscape physiography in shaping the adaptive response of biota to climate change.     

Patterns of spatial genetic structure and diversity at the onset of a rapid range expansion: colonisation of the UK by the small red-eyed damselfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Erythromma viridulum</Emphasis>

Species’ geographic ranges may vary in size in response to a change in environmental conditions. The specific genetic consequences of range expansions are context dependent, largely depending upon the rate of colonisation as well as the origins and numbers of founders, and the time since colonisation. Like other “charismatic” taxa, such as birds and lepidopterans, the distributions of odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) are well-known through substantial monitoring programmes co-ordinated by various societies. The small red-eyed damselfly Erythromma viridulum (Odonata: Zygoptera) has undergone a substantial, northward range expansion in Europe in the last 30 years and has recently-colonised two distinct areas in the UK. We quantify the immediate genetic consequences of this rapid colonisation by genotyping more than 1,400 E. viridulum from 39 sites across the northwest margin of this species’ geographic range. Levels of genetic diversity and spatial structure are impacted by this species recent range expansion and non-equilibrium conditions that drive weak genetic divergence, even at regional spatial scales. Populations of E. viridulum become less diverse towards the edge of this species’ distribution, presumably as a consequence of colonisation through a series of founder events. Specifically, there is a significant reduction in genetic diversity in the smallest, most recent focus of colonisation in the UK; however, there are generally low levels of genetic diversity across this E. viridulum’s northern range margin. While most populations are generally poorly differentiated, E. viridulum nonetheless consists of two distinct lineages that broadly differentiate between eastern and western Europe. Genetic divergence between the two UK colonisation foci are indicative of distinct immigration events from separate sources; however a general lack of spatial structure prevents us from pinpointing the specific origins of these migrant damselflies.     

Population structure and landscape genetics in the endangered subterranean rodent Ctenomys porteousi

In order to devise adequate conservation and management strategies for endangered species, it is important to incorporate a reliable understanding of its spatial population structure, detecting the existence of demographic partitions throughout its geographical range and characterizing the distribution of its genetic diversity. Moreover, in species that occupy fragmented habitats it is essential to know how landscape characteristics may affect the genetic connectivity among populations. In this study we use eight microsatellite markers to analyze population structure and gene flow patterns in the complete geographic range of the endangered rodent Ctenomys porteousi. Also, we use landscape genetics approaches to evaluate the effects of landscape configuration on the genetic connectivity among populations. In spite of geographical proximity of the sampling sites (8–27 km between the nearest sites) and the absence of marked barriers to individual movement, strong population structure and low values of gene flow were observed. Genetic differentiation among sampling sites was consistent with a simple model of isolation by distance, where peripheral areas showed higher population differentiation than those sites located in the central area of the species’ distribution. Landscape genetics analysis suggested that habitat fragmentation at regional level has affected the distribution of genetic variation among populations. The distance of sampling sites to areas of the landscape having higher habitat connectivity was the environmental factor most strongly related to population genetic structure. In general, our results indicate strong genetic structure in C. porteousi, even at a small spatial scale, and suggest that habitat fragmentation could increase the population differentiation.     

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision‐making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = ?0.77; P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.     

Geographic evaluation of conservation status of African forest squirrels (Sciuridae) considering land use change and climate change: the importance of point data

Known occurrences based on natural history museum voucher specimens for three genera of African forest squirrels were used to develop a detailed, fine-scale distributional under- standing of each species. Considerations of species’ autecology, effects of land use change, and effects of global climate change were all included in our analyses, and negative effects of land use and climate change on species’ distributional areas were roughly equivalent across the species surveyed. We describe geographic patterns of distribution and endemism, and identify areas of potential occurrence of unknown species. Comparing with coarse grid-based approaches currently in vogue in African biodiversity conservation efforts, we suggest that the point-based method offers significant advantages in fine resolution and avoiding loss of information, and yet are feasibly implemented for many vertebrate groups.     

Cladogenesis of the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778)

A substantial portion of today’s biodiversity is attributed to the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. Gradual but dramatic climate changes were accompanied by expansion, contraction, and isolation of populations, promoting the accumulation of genome differences and adaptations in refugial populations and resulting in allopatric differentiation in a variety of taxa. In the present study, partial mitochondrial DNA sequences of the widely distributed European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) were analyzed to test whether the species’ present genetic structure is the result of postglacial re-colonization of Europe from Asia Minor (clade A) and the Balkans (clade B) only, as suggested previously, or if additional refugia are likely. Analyses indicated the presence of an additional refugium (Italy, clade I). The genealogic network of Italian hares displayed the tree-like structure expected from refugial populations, whereas central European brown hare haplotypes revealed a clear star-phylogeny indicative of past-bottleneck population growth. This population size expansion, which was confirmed by mismatch analysis, was estimated to have occurred ∼50–55 thousand years ago (kya). The divergence of clade A* from the remaining matrilines is estimated at 239 kya, whereas the divergence of the ancestors of clades B* and I from A* occurred about 128 kya. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.     

Epiphyte sensitivity to a cross-scale interaction between habitat quality and macroclimate: an opportunity for range-edge conservation

Bioclimatic envelope models are frequently used to project the species response to climate change scenarios. Development and improvement of bioclimatic models has focussed on data properties and statistical tools, while significant criticism continues to challenge the ecological framework of model assumptions. We hypothesised that a potential for model improvement emerges from linkage across scales, between macroclimate and variation in local habitat quality: i.e. a species’ habitat specificity may shift along macroclimatic gradients. We first sampled two test-case epiphytic lichen species across a steep climatic gradient, and second developed standard bioclimatic models accompanied by a threshold likelihood value for discriminating presences and absences. We used the difference between predicted model values and the threshold as a response variable (D _thr): we show that values for D _thr are explained by an interaction between the climatic setting and habitat quality. A potential error in bioclimatic models is then quantified as the region of false absences or presences, which would be incurred as a consequence of sensitivity to variable habitat. This signature habitat effect occurs at a species’ range-edge, and, as a corollary, provides quantification in support of conservation: i.e. information is provided on how a habitat may be managed in marginal climatic regions (leading or trailing range-edge boundaries) in order to promote species protection.     

Genetic diversity and structure of western white pine (Pinus monticola) in North America: a baseline study for conservation, restoration, and addressing impacts of climate change

Western white pine (Pinus monticola) is an economically and ecologically important species in western North America that has declined in prominence over the past several decades, mainly due to the introduction of Cronartium ribicola (cause of white pine blister rust) and reduced opportunities for regeneration. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers were used to assess the genetic diversity and structure among populations at 15 sites (e.g., provenances) across the native range of western white pine. The level of genetic diversity was different among 15 populations tested using 66 polymorphic AFLP loci. Nei’s gene diversity (H _E) at the population level ranged from 0.187 to 0.316. Genetic differentiation (G _ST) indicated that 20.1% of detected genetic variation was explained by differences among populations. In general, populations below 45^oN latitude exhibited a higher level of genetic diversity than higher latitude populations. Genetic distance analysis revealed two major clades between northern and southern populations, but other well-supported relationships are also apparent within each of the two clades. The complex relationships among populations are likely derived from multiple factors including migration, adaptation, and multiple glacial refugia, especially in higher latitudes. Genetic diversity and structure revealed by this study will aid recognition and selection of western white pine populations for species management and conservation programs, especially in consideration of current and future climate changes.     

AFLP markers reveal high clonal diversity and extreme longevity in four key arctic-alpine species

We investigated clonal diversity, genet size structure and genet longevity in populations of four arctic‐alpine plants (Carex curvula, Dryas octopetala, Salix herbacea and Vaccinium uliginosum) to evaluate their persistence under past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change. The size and number of genets were determined by an analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphisms and a standardized sampling design in several European arctic‐alpine populations, where these species are dominant in the vegetation. Genet age was estimated by dividing the size by the annual horizontal size increment from in situ growth measurements. Clonal diversity was generally high but differed among species, and the frequency distribution of genet size was strongly left‐skewed. The largest C. curvula genet had an estimated minimum age of c. 4100 years and a maximum age of c. 5000 years, although 84.8% of the genets in this species were <200 years old. The oldest genets of D. octopetala, S. herbacea and V. uliginosum were found to be at least 500, 450 and 1400 years old, respectively. These results indicate that individuals in the studied populations have survived pronounced climatic oscillations, including the Little Ice Age and the postindustrial warming. The presence of genets in all size classes and the dominance of presumably young individuals suggest repeated recruitment over time, a precondition for adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Together, persistence and continuous genet turnover may ensure maximum ecosystem resilience. Thus, our results indicate that long‐lived clonal plants in arctic‐alpine ecosystems can persist, despite considerable climatic change.     

Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.