Evolution of pathogen virulence: the role of variation in host phenotype

Selection on pathogens tends to favour the evolution of growth and reproductive rates and a concomitant level of virulence (damage done to the host) that maximizes pathogen fitness. Yet, because hosts often pose varying selective environments to pathogens, one level of virulence may not be appropriate for all host types. Indeed, if a level of virulence confers high fitness to the pathogen in one host phenotype but low fitness in another host phenotype, alternative virulence strategies may be maintained in the pathogen population. Such strategies can occur either as polymorphism, where different strains of pathogen evolve specialized virulence strategies in different host phenotypes or as polyphenism, where pathogens facultatively express alternative virulence strategies depending on host phenotype. Polymorphism potentially leads to specialist pathogens capable of infecting a limited range of host phenotypes, whereas polyphenism potentially leads to generalist pathogens capable of infecting a wider range of hosts. Evaluating how variation among hosts affects virulence evolution can provide insight into pathogen diversity and is critical in determining how host pathogen interactions affect the phenotypic evolution of both hosts and pathogens.     

Local adaptation and effect of host genotype on the rate of pathogen evolution: an experimental test in a plant pathosystem

Abstract Virulence is thought to be a driving force in host–pathogen coevolution. Theoretical models suggest that virulence is an unavoidable consequence of pathogens evolving towards a high rate of intrahost reproduction. These models predict a positive correlation between the reproductive fitness of a pathogen and its level of virulence. Theoretical models also suggest that the demography and genetic structure of a host population can influence the evolution of virulence. If evolution occurs faster in pathogen populations than in host populations, the predicted result is local adaptation of the pathogen population. In our studies, we used a combination of molecular and physiological markers to test these hypotheses in an agricultural system. We isolated five strains of the fungal pathogen Mycosphaerella graminicola from each of two wheat cultivars that differed in their level of resistance to this pathogen. Each of the 10 fungal strains had distinct genotypes as indicated by different DNA fingerprints. These fungal strains were re‐inoculated onto the same two host cultivars in a field experiment and their genotype frequencies were monitored over several generations of asexual reproduction. We also measured the virulence of these 10 fungal strains and correlated it to the reproductive fitness of each fungal strain. We found that host genotypes had a strong impact on the dynamics of the pathogen populations. The pathogen population collected from the moderately resistant cultivar Madsen showed greater stability, higher genotype diversity, and smaller selection coefficients than the pathogen populations collected from the susceptible cultivar Stephens or a mixture of the two host cultivars. The pathogen collection from the mixed host population was midway between the two pure lines for most parameters measured. Our results also revealed that the measures of reproductive fitness and virulence of a pathogen strain were not always correlated. The pathogen strains varied in their patterns of local adaptation, ranging from locally adapted to locally maladapted.     

Pathogen evolution under host avoidance plasticity

Host resistance consists of defences that limit pathogen burden, and can be classified as either adaptations targeting recovery from infection or those focused upon infection avoidance. Conventional theory treats avoidance as a fixed strategy which does not vary from one interaction to the next. However, there is increasing empirical evidence that many avoidance strategies are triggered by external stimuli, and thus should be treated as phenotypically plastic responses. Here, we consider the implications of avoidance plasticity for host–pathogen coevolution. We uncover a number of predictions challenging current theory. First, in the absence of pathogen trade-offs, plasticity can restrain pathogen evolution; moreover, the pathogen exploits conditions in which the host would otherwise invest less in resistance, causing resistance escalation. Second, when transmission trades off with pathogen-induced mortality, plasticity encourages avirulence, resulting in a superior fitness outcome for both host and pathogen. Third, plasticity ensures the sterilizing effect of pathogens has consequences for pathogen evolution. When pathogens castrate hosts, selection forces them to minimize mortality virulence; moreover, when transmission trades off with sterility alone, resistance plasticity is sufficient to prevent pathogens from evolving to fully castrate.     

The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence

The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence.     

The evolution of phenotypic plasticity in spatially structured environments: implications of intraspecific competition, plasticity costs and environmental characteristics

We model the evolution of reaction norms focusing on three aspects: frequency-dependent selection arising from resource competition, maintenance and production costs of phenotypic plasticity, and three characteristics of environmental heterogeneity (frequency of environments, their intrinsic carrying capacity and the sensitivity to phenotypic maladaptation in these environments). We show that (i) reaction norms evolve so as to trade adaptation for acquiring resources against cost avoidance; (ii) maintenance costs cause reaction norms to better adapt to frequent rather than to infrequent environments, whereas production costs do not; and (iii) evolved reaction norms confer better adaptation to environments with low rather than with high intrinsic carrying capacity. The two previous findings contradict earlier theoretical results and originate from two previously unexplored features that are included in our model. First, production costs of phenotypic plasticity are only incurred when a given phenotype is actually produced. Therefore, they are proportional to the frequency of environments, and these frequencies thus affect the selection pressure to avoid costs just as much as the selection pressure to improve adaptation. This prevents the frequency of environments from affecting the evolving reaction norm. Secondly, our model describes the evolution of plasticity for a phenotype determining an individual's capability to acquire resources, and thus its realized carrying capacity. When individuals are distributed randomly across environments, they cannot avoid experiencing environments with intrinsically low carrying capacity. As selection pressures arising from the need to improve adaptation are stronger under such extreme conditions than under mild ones, better adaptation to environments with low rather than with high intrinsic carrying capacity results.     

A polygenic model for the evolution and maintenance of conditional strategies

We develop a genetic model for conditional strategies which places such strategies in the context of phenotypic plasticity. The model, which treats conditional strategies as polygenic threshold traits, indicates that, given requisite genetic variation in reaction norms, conditional strategies will evolve to their optimum level and be maintained by stabilizing selection, provided environmental variation results in a fitness trade-off for the alternative conditional phenotypes. The precise value for the evolutionary optimum is found to depend primarily on the probability density function of the environmental variation that influences the production of the conditional phenotypes and the magnitude of the fitness trade-offs of the conditional phenotypes across such environmental variation. The model is tested by application to three well-studied conditional strategies. In each case the predictions of the model are in good agreement with the results of these studies.     

Fitness of indirectly transmitted pathogens: restraint and constraint

Many pathogens of medical and veterinary importance have obligatory multihost life cycles. Yet, theoretical models aiming to predict patterns of pathogen reproductive success and the limited empirical data available with which to evaluate them, focus on directly transmitted microparasites. Patterns of host exploitation and the relative fitness of individual pathogen genotypes throughout the different host stages of multihost life cycles have thus remained ignored. We examined correlated responses to artificial selection of Schistosoma mansoni lines selected for high or low infection intensity in the intermediate host. Pathogen fitness in the intermediate host was strongly inversely correlated with pathogen fitness in the definitive host. Moreover, high pathogen infection intensity was associated with decreased, rather than increased, virulence to its intermediate host. These results raise important implications regarding the impact of genetic constraints on the maintenance of genetic and phenotypic polymorphisms in natural populations, the evolution and coevolution of parasite virulence and host specialization, as well as the success of host-directed control programs.     

Quantitative genetics of behavioural reaction norms: genetic correlations between personality and behavioural plasticity vary across stickleback populations

Behavioural ecologists have proposed various evolutionary mechanisms as to why different personality types coexist. Our ability to understand the evolutionary trajectories of personality traits requires insights from the quantitative genetics of behavioural reaction norms. We assayed > 1000 pedigreed stickleback for initial exploration behaviour of a novel environment, and subsequent changes in exploration over a few hours, representing their capacity to adjust their behaviour to changes in perceived novelty and risk. We found heritable variation in both the average level of exploration and behavioural plasticity, and population differences in the sign of the genetic correlation between these two reaction norm components. The phenotypic correlation was not a good indicator of the genetic correlation, implying that quantitative genetics are necessary to appropriately evaluate evolutionary hypotheses in cases such as these. Our findings therefore have important implications for future studies concerning the evolution of personality and plasticity.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. VII. Evolution in a spatially-structured environment

Previous models of the evolution of phenotypic plasticity have, for the most part, not considered the effects of genetic architecture and spatial structure. I examine those factors with an individual-based simulation model. With regard to genetic architecture, I considered how the presence of different types of loci would affect medium-term evolutionary outcomes. The types of loci differed in how the environment determined phenotypic expression and included loci that were insensitive to the environment (non-plastic loci), sensitive in a linear fashion, and sensitive in a quadratic fashion (both plastic loci). With regard to spatial structure, I investigated the affects of migration patterns. These simulations demonstrated that two general conditions are necessary for phenotypic plasticity to be selected. (1) The environment must have a strong influence on genotypic expression. (2) The between-generation changes in the environment must be large and predictable, in the current instance because of migration in a spatially-structured (clinal) environment. Responses to selection were not simple, however. Rarely were pure strategies — genetic specialization or phenotypic plasticity — selected for. Instead, the existence of multiple types of loci led to mixed genetic outcomes. The result of this mixed outcome were individuals with reaction norms that were less steep than the optimal reaction norm (when non-plastic and linear-plastic loci were present) or individuals with curved reaction norms when the optimal reaction norms was linear (when all three types of loci were present). A pure plasticity strategy had the highest global fitness because plastic individuals would match the optimal phenotype everywhere. The reason that the metapopulation did not achieve this global fitness optimum is that local selection is stronger than global selection. Each deme is driven to a local fitness peak based on the combined, locally additive effects of the non-plastic and plastic loci. Plasticity is only selected globally, so plasticity becomes more highly favored with high migration rates. This effect was greatest in parts of the cline where the plasticity loci were not being expressed and, thus, not locally selected upon. That is, in these demes local selection was weak or absent allowing global fitness effects to predominate.     

Neuroendocrine control of life histories: what do we need to know to understand the evolution of phenotypic plasticity?

Almost all life histories are phenotypically plastic: that is, life-history traits such as timing of breeding, family size or the investment in individual offspring vary with some aspect of the environment, such as temperature or food availability. One approach to understanding this phenotypic plasticity from an evolutionary point of view is to extend the optimality approach to the range of environments experienced by the organism. This approach attempts to understand the value of particular traits in terms of the selection pressures that act on them either directly or owing to trade-offs due to resource allocation and other factors such as predation risk. Because these selection pressures will between environments, the predicted optimal phenotype will too. The relationship expressing the optimal phenotype for different environments is the optimal reaction norm and describes the optimal phenotypic plasticity. However, this view of phenotypic plasticity ignores the fact that the reaction norm must be underlain by some sort of control system: cues about the environment must be collected by sense organs, integrated into a decision about the appropriate life history, and a message sent to the relevant organs to implement that decision. In multicellular animals, this control mechanism is the neuroendocrine system. The central question that this paper addresses is whether the control system affects the reaction norm that evolves. This might happen in two different ways: first, the control system will create constraints on the evolution of reaction norms if it cannot be configured to produce the optimal reaction norm and second, the control system will create additional selection pressures on reaction norms if the neuroendocrine system is costly. If either of these happens, a full understanding of the way in which selection shapes reaction norms must include details of the neuroendocrine control system. This paper presents the conceptual framework needed to explain what is meant by a constraint or cost being created by the neuroendocrine system and discusses the extent to which this occurs and some possible examples. The purpose of doing this is to encourage endocrinologists to take a fresh look at neuroendocrine mechanisms and help identify the properties of the system and situations in which these generate constraints and costs that impinge on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.     

Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogens causing acute infections in vertebrates

A study by Gandon et al. (2001) considered the potential ways pathogens may evolve in response to vaccination with imperfect vaccines. In this paper, by focusing on acute infections of vertebrate hosts, we examine whether imperfect vaccines that do not completely block a pathogen's replication (antigrowth) or transmission (antitransmission) may lead to evolution of more or less virulent pathogen strains. To address this question, we use models of the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and the host's immune responses. One advantage of the use of this within-host approach is that vaccination can be easily incorporated in the models and the trade-offs between pathogen transmissibility, host recovery, and virulence that drive evolution of pathogens in these models can be easily estimated. We find that the use of either antigrowth or antitransmission vaccines leads to the evolution of pathogens with an increased within-host growth rate; infection of unvaccinated hosts with such evolved pathogens results in high host mortality and low pathogen transmission. Vaccination of only a fraction of hosts with antigrowth vaccines may prevent pathogens from evolving high virulence due to pathogen adaptation to unvaccinated hosts and thus protection of vaccinated hosts from pathogen-induced disease. In contrast, antitransmission vaccines may be beneficial only if they are effective enough to cause pathogen extinction. Our results suggest that particular mechanisms of action of vaccines and their efficacy are crucial in predicting longterm evolutionary consequences of the use of imperfect vaccines.     

Higher disease prevalence can induce greater sociality: a game theoretic coevolutionary model

There is growing evidence that communicable diseases constitute a strong selective force on the evolution of social systems. It has been suggested that infectious diseases may determine upper limits of host sociality by, for example, inducing territoriality or early juvenile dispersal. Here we use game theory to model the evolution of host sociality in the context of communicable diseases. Our model is then augmented with the evolution of virulence to determine coevolutionarily stable strategies of host sociality and pathogen virulence. In contrast to a controversial hypothesis by Ewald (1994), our analysis indicates that pathogens may become more virulent when contact rates are low, and their prevalence can ultimately induce greater sociality.     

Playing by different rules: the evolution of virulence in sterilizing pathogens

We investigate the evolution of virulence of pathogens that reduce their hosts' fitness primarily by affecting host fecundity. We show that, under many conditions, such sterilizing pathogens evolve high rather than intermediate levels of virulence, and this pushes the pathogen population and sometimes the host population toward extinction. We also show that spatial population structure can reverse this evolutionary result and allow the persistence of intermediate-virulence pathogens. Thus, spatial population structure may be vital to the persistence of sterilizing pathogens in nature.     

Evolution of parasite virulence when host responses cause disease

The trade-off hypothesis of virulence evolution rests on the assumption that infection-induced mortality is a consequence of host exploitation by parasites. This hypothesis lies at the heart of many empirical and theoretical studies of virulence evolution, despite growing evidence that infection-induced mortality is very often a by-product of host immune responses. We extend the theoretical framework of the trade-off hypothesis to incorporate such immunopathology and explore how this detrimental aspect of host defence mechanisms affects the evolution of pathogen exploitation and hence infection-induced mortality. We argue that there are qualitatively different ways in which immunopathology can arise and suggest ways in which empirical studies can tease apart these effects. We show that immunopathology can cause infection-induced mortality to increase or decrease as a result of pathogen evolution, depending on how it covaries with pathogen exploitation strategies and with parasite killing by hosts. Immunopathology is thus an important determinant of whether public and animal health programmes will drive evolution in a clinically beneficial or detrimental direction. Immunopathology complicates our understanding of disease evolution, but can nevertheless be readily accounted for within the framework of the trade-off hypothesis.     

Multiple infections,kin selection and the evolutionary epidemiology of parasite traits

The coinfection of a host by several parasite strains is known to affect selective pressures on parasite strategies of host exploitation. I present a general model of coinfections that ties together kin selection models of virulence evolution and epidemiological models of multiple infections. I derive an analytical expression for the invasion fitness of a rare mutant in a population with an arbitrary distribution of the multiplicity of infection (MOI) across hosts. When a single mutation affects parasite strategies in all MOI classes, I show that the evolutionarily stable level of virulence depends on a demographic average of within‐host relatedness across all host classes. This generalization of previous kin selection results requires that within‐host parasite densities do not vary between hosts. When host exploitation strategies are allowed to vary across classes, I show that the strategy of host exploitation in a focal MOI class depends on the relative magnitudes of parasite reproductive values in the focal class and in the next. Thus, in contrast to previous findings, lower within‐host relatedness in competitive parasite interactions can potentially correspond to either higher or lower levels of virulence.     

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.     

Optimality models of phage life history and parallels in disease evolution

Optimality models constitute one of the simplest approaches to understanding phenotypic evolution. Yet they have shortcomings that are not easily evaluated in most organisms. Most importantly, the genetic basis of phenotype evolution is almost never understood, and phenotypic selection experiments are rarely possible. Both limitations can be overcome with bacteriophages. However, phages have such elementary life histories that few phenotypes seem appropriate for optimality approaches. Here we develop optimality models of two phage life history traits, lysis time and host range. The lysis time models show that the optimum is less sensitive to differences in host density than suggested by earlier analytical work. Host range evolution is approached from the perspective of whether the virus should avoid particular hosts, and the results match optimal foraging theory: there is an optimal "diet" in which host types are either strictly included or excluded, depending on their infection qualities. Experimental tests of both models are feasible, and phages provide concrete illustrations of many ways that optimality models can guide understanding and explanation. Phage genetic systems already support the perspective that lysis time and host range can evolve readily and evolve without greatly affecting other traits, one of the main tenets of optimality theory. The models can be extended to more general properties of infection, such as the evolution of virulence and tissue tropism.     

Association between Virulence and Triazole Tolerance in the Phytopathogenic Fungus Mycosphaerella graminicola

Host resistance and synthetic antimicrobials such as fungicides are two of the main approaches used to control plant diseases in conventional agriculture. Although pathogens often evolve to overcome host resistance and antimicrobials, the majority of reports have involved qualitative host – pathogen interactions or antimicrobials targeting a single pathogen protein or metabolic pathway. Studies that consider jointly the evolution of virulence, defined as the degree of damage caused to a host by parasite infection, and antimicrobial resistance are rare. Here we compared virulence and fungicide tolerance in the fungal pathogen Mycosphaerella graminicola sampled from wheat fields across three continents and found a positive correlation between virulence and tolerance to a triazole fungicide. We also found that quantitative host resistance selected for higher pathogen virulence. The possible mechanisms responsible for these observations and their consequences for sustainable disease management are discussed.