Single-cell and population lag times as a function of cell age

After inoculation, the times to the first divisions are longer and more widely distributed for those Escherichia coli single cells that spent more time in the stationary phase prior to inoculation. The second generation times are still longer than the typical generation times in the exponential phase, and this extended the apparent lag time of the cell population. The greater the variability of the single-cell interdivision intervals, the shorter are both the lag time and the doubling time of the population.     

Extinction time and age of an allele in a large finite population

For a single locus with two alleles we study the expected extinction and fixation times of the alleles under the influence of selection and genetic drift. Using a diffusion model we derive asymptotic approximations for these expected exit times for large populations. We consider the case where the fitness of the heterozygote is in between the fitnesses of the homozygotes (incomplete dominance). The asymptotic analysis not only yields new quantitative results but also reveals interesting features that remain hidden in the exact solution. Some of the outcomes are extensions of results known in the literature. The asymptotic approximations also apply to the expected first arrival time of an allele at a specified frequency and to the expected age of an allele.     

Global disease spread: statistics and estimation of arrival times

We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows one to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on the computation of the arrival time of a disease as a function of the properties of the seed of the epidemics and of the characteristics of the network connecting the various subpopulations. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we introduce an easily computable quantity which approximates this average arrival time. We show on the example of a disease spread on the world-wide airport network that this quantity predicts with a good accuracy the order of arrival of the disease in the various subpopulations in each realization of epidemic scenario, and not only for an average over realizations. Finally, this quantity might be useful in the identification of the dominant paths of the disease spread.     

Frequency of phenotypes and genes of the polymorphic blood systems in a population as dependent on the age factor

The frequency of blood groups ABO, Rh, MNS, P, haptoglobin as well as distribution of phenotypic combinations of two different loci are compared in groups of children and adults. The frequency of phenotype O, Rh-negative and P-positive people is revealed to increase in adults, that testifies to the influence of the age factor on the distribution of the human polymorphic blood systems.     

Electrophoretically silent alleles in a finite population

Summary The expected number of silent alleles in an electromorph is computed for various values of population size (N), mutation rate (u), and sample size (s) under the assumption of no selection. The proportion of alleles undetectable by electrophoresis is higher when Nu is large than when this is small. It is shown that an electromorph of high population frequency has more silent alleles than an electromorph of low frequency if the sample size is the same.     

On the iterated prisoner's dilemma in a finite population

Two standard assumptions in analytical work on the iterated prisoner's dilemma are that the population is infinite, and that opponents—though randomly selected—are fixed for the duration of the game. This paper explores the consequences of relaxing both assumptions. It is shown in particular that if opponents are drawn at random throughout the game, then stable cooperation via reciprocity requires both that the probability of a further interaction be sufficiently high—higher than when opponents are fixed—and that the population not exceed a certain critical size, which depends on the probability of further interaction.     

Dopamine receptor genes are associated with age at first sexual intercourse

The dopaminergic system in the brain seems to play an important role in the regulation of sexual behaviour. The relationship between genes for the D1, D2 and D4 dopamine receptors and age at first sexual intercourse (AFSI) was examined in a sample of 414 non-Hispanic, European-American men and women. A significant association was observed between a DRD2 allele and AFSI and an even stronger association when the DRD2 allele was interacted with a DRD1 allele. A constrained regression model was constructed predicting AFSI using sex and a group of nine psychosocial variables as predictors. Adding the DRD2 and the DRD2-by-DRD1 predictors to this model increased the explained variance by 23 and 55%, respectively. Although these findings suggest a stronger association among males than among females, further research will be necessary to clarify this question, as well as to establish whether the observed association holds in other racial/ethnic groups.     

One-hit stochastic decline in a mechanochemical model of cytoskeleton-induced neuron death I: cell-fate arrival times

Much experimental evidence shows that the cytoskeleton is a downstream target and effector during cell death in numerous neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's diseases. However, recent evidence indicates that cytoskeletal dysfunction can also trigger neuronal death, by mechanisms as yet poorly understood. This is the first of two papers in which we study a mathematical model of cytoskeleton-induced neuron death. In our model, assembly control of the neuronal cytoskeleton interacts with both cellular stress levels and cytosolic free radical concentrations to trigger neurodegeneration. This trigger mechanism is further modulated by the presence of cell interactions in the form of a diffusible toxic factor released by dying neurons. We find that, consistent with empirical observations, our model produces one-hit exponential and sigmoid patterns of cell dropout. In all cases, cell dropout is exponential-tailed and described accurately by a gamma distribution. The transition between exponential and sigmoidal is gradual, and determined by a synergetic interaction between the magnitude of fluctuations in cytoskeleton assembly control and by the degree of cell coupling. We conclude that a single mechanism involving neuron interactions and fluctuations in cytoskeleton assembly control is compatible with the experimentally observed range of neuronal attrition kinetics.     

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities. We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice.     

Socioeconomic factors affecting first marriage and birth rates by sex and age in the total Japanese population.

The effects of a wide variety of social, economic and demographic factors on age-specific first marriage and live birth rates in 46 Japanese prefectures were analyzed using stepwise regression analysis for 1970 and again for 1975 after classification of those twenty-two factors by factor analysis. The principal results were as follows: (1) high employment (high income) and social mobility caused by industrialization had a strongly positive influence on the first marriage and birth rates for young females, (2) rural and urban residence factors had positive effects on the marriage and birth rates for young males and females, respectively, (3) old age factor had an inverse effect on the marriage rates for both males and females over a wide range of ages, and (4) young age factor promoted the birth rate for young and middle-aged females. The characteristics of the first marriage and live birth rates in Japan were discussed in the light of these findings.     

Linkage and inbreeding coefficients in a finite random mating population

The notion of inbreeding coefficient associated with one single locus introduced by G. Malecot can be extended to two loci. For a panmictic model with separate generation the recurrence equations are given therein allowing to calculate the coefficients in the event of migration and mutation, or loss of kinship.Hence it is derived particularly that the limit genetic distance of two groups associated with two loci is, under specific hypotheses, little different from the sum of marginal genetic distances.For an isolat this paper studies, in terms of crossing over, mutations, and population size, the evolution of the inbreading coefficients of order 2 and especially the difference of this evolution from the evolution to independence of the two loci.     

Disequilibrium among several linked neutral genes in finite population 1. mean changes in disequilibrium

Formulae are developed for computing changes in expected values in a finite population of linkage disequilibrium among neutral genes from more than two loci, although the exact analysis is taken up to only six loci. An essentially haploid model is used. As with two loci, the three-locus disequilibrium declines exponentially at all generations, but for m > 3 loci a matrix has to be constructed to give joint changes in the m-locus disequilibrium and products of disequilibria with fewer loci, for example of two $\text{m}\text{2}\text{-}\text{locus}$ disequilibria. The asymptotic rates of change in multilocus disequilibria depend on the arrangement of genes on the chromosome as well as its total length, but the initial rate of breakdown of disequilibrium from a line cross base is less dependent on the arrangement. With equally spaced loci the asymptotic rate of breakdown of m locus disequilibrium is roughly proportional to m. Although mutation and interference are excluded from the main analysis, it is shown how they can be incorporated.     

Disequilibrium among several linked neutral genes in finite population I. Mean changes in disequilibrium

Formulae are developed for computing changes in expected values in a finite population of linkage disequilibrium among neutral genes from more than two loci, although the exact analysis is taken up to only six loci. An essentially haploid model is used. As with two loci, the three-locus disequilibrium declines exponentially at all generations, but for m > 3 loci a matrix has to be constructed to give joint changes in the m-locus disequilibrium and products of disequilibria with fewer loci, for example of two m/2-locus disequilibria. The asymptotic rates of change in multilocus disequilibria depend on the arrangement of genes on the chromosome as well as its total length, but the initial rate of breakdown of disequilibrium from a line cross base is less dependent on the arrangement. With equally spaced loci the asymptotic rate of breakdown of m locus disequilibrium is roughly proportional to m. Although mutation and interference are excluded from the main analysis, it is shown how they can be incorporated.     

Frequency spectra of neutral and deleterious alleles in a finite population

Summary One of the major goals of population genetics is to discover the nature and amount of genetic variation in natural populations. Various measures, including the population heterozygosity at any locus and the number of alleles extant at the locus, have been used for this purpose. An important task of theoretical population genetics is thus to provide expressions for the mean values of these two quantities (when calculated from a sample of genes) for various models of selection, mutation and random drift. This aim has been achieved for the selectively neutral case, where all alleles at the locus are assumed to be selectively equivalent. It is, however, generally agreed that classes of (evolutionarily unimportant) selectively deleterious alleles exist, so that the neutral theory calculations should be extended to cover this case. This has previously been done only for extremely weak selection. In this paper we obtain, via the confluent hypergeometric function and three allied functions, concise and simple exact and approximate formulae for the means of the above measures of population variation for arbitrary selective values. These all derive from the allelic frequency spectrum, which is of independent interest in assessing likely models of population variation.     

Advancement of spring arrival in a long-term study of a passerine bird: sex,age and environmental effects

In migratory birds, mistimed arrival might have negative consequences for individual fitness, causing population declines. This may happen if arrival time is not synchronized with breeding time, especially when earlier springs favour earlier reproduction. We studied spring arrival time to the breeding areas in a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in southern Norway during a 30-year period (1985–2014). We investigated trends in arrival both for the entire population and for different population fractions (e.g. early vs. late arrivals). We also studied sex and age class differences, along with repeatability of arrival. Finally, we explored how arrival is influenced by environmental conditions at the areas birds use throughout the year, using mixed-effects models and quantile regressions with individual-based data. Spring arrival advanced over five days, at a similar rate through the entire population. Males and adult birds arrived earlier than females and yearlings. Arrival was significantly repeatable for males and females. Birds arrived earlier in years with high temperature and rainfall at the breeding grounds, and low NDVI both on the Iberian Peninsula and in central Europe. Later fractions of the population showed a steeper response to these environmental variables. This intra-population heterogeneity in the responses to the environment probably stems from a combination between the different selection pressures individuals are subject to and their age-related experience. Our results highlight the importance of studying how migration phenology is affected by the environment not only on the breeding grounds but also on the other areas birds use throughout the year.