Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modeled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modeled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modeled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modeled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques.     

Bayesian classification of vegetation types with Gaussian mixture density fitting to indicator values

Question: Is it possible to mathematically classify relevés into vegetation types on the basis of their average indicator values, including the uncertainty of the classification? Location: The Netherlands. Method: A large relevé database was used to develop a method for predicting vegetation types based on indicator values. First, each relevé was classified into a phytosociological association on the basis of its species composition. Additionally, mean indicator values for moisture, nutrients and acidity were computed for each relevé. Thus, the position of each classified relevé was obtained in a three‐dimensional space of indicator values. Fitting the data to so called Gaussian Mixture Models yielded densities of associations as a function of indicator values. Finally, these density functions were used to predict the Bayesian occurrence probabilities of associations for known indicator values. Validation of predictions was performed by using a randomly chosen half of the database for the calibration of densities and the other half for the validation of predicted associations. Results and Conclusions: With indicator values, most reléves were classified correctly into vegetation types at the association level. This was shown using confusion matrices that relate (1) the number of relevés classified into associations based on species composition to (2) those based on indicator values. Misclassified relevés belonged to ecologically similar associations. The method seems very suitable for predictive vegetation models.     

Syntaxonomic diversity as an indicator of ecological diversity — case study Vranica Mts in the Central Bosnia

Syntaxonomic diversity (SD) represents the number of plant communities (phytocoenoses) in certain area. Plant communities as organized systems of populations of various coexisting plant species inhabiting same or similar habitat in the function of time. SD is one of the best indicators of the state and potential carrying capacity of every ecosystem and an attribute of total ecological diversity. In general, level of syntaxonomic diversity indicates habitat heterogeneity and diversity. This could have significant importance in the categorization of habitat values in accordance with European Nature Information System (EUNIS) criteria. The results presented in this paper indicate without any doubt high natural values of mountain range Vranica in Bosnia and Herzegovina. One of the best proofs is an extremely high level of syntaxonomic diversity. In this area covering just 288 km², vegetation is differentiated into 9 formations, 28 classes, 44 orders, 73 alliances and 165 associations. This represents 85% of all classes, 73% of all orders, 65% of all alliances, and 53% of all associations of vegetation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or 35% of all classes in vegetation diversity in Europe. Going from the level of class to the level of order, the number of syntaxa increases for 61%, from order to alliance for 60%, and from alliance to association for 44.24% (average 55%). SD index is very high and it is 0.5729. This means that on each km² contains 0.5729 syntaxa.     

Bioclimatic analysis in a region of southern Italy (Calabria)

In this study, an analysis of precipitation and temperature data has been performed over 67 series observed in a region of southern Italy (Calabria). At first, to detect possible trends in the time series, an analysis was performed with the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test applied at monthly and seasonal scale. An additional investigation, useful for checking the climate change effects on vegetation, has also been included analysing bioclimatic indicators. In particular, Emberger, Rivas-Martinez and De Martonne indices were calculated by using monthly temperature and precipitation data in the period 1916–2010. The spatial pattern of the indices has been evaluated and, in order to link the vegetation and the indices, different indices maps have been intersected with the land cover data, given by the Corine Land Cover map. Moreover, the temporal evolution of the indices and of the vegetation has been analysed. Results suggest that climate change may be responsible for the forest cover change, but, given also the good relationship between the various types of bioclimate and forest formations, human activities must be considered.     

An indirect gradient analysis of the ecological relationships between ancient and recent reiverine woodlands to the south of Bruges (Flanders,Belgium)

Summary Riverine forests to the south of Bruges were sampled according to the principles of the Braun-Blanquet approach. Cartographic data allowed a distinction between old (pre-1775) and recent (planted after 1775) woodland. Using a chi-square criterion and/or a Fisher exact probability test, the association of species with the two historical types of woodland was tested. Corylus avellana, Lamium galeobdolon, Primula elatior, Anemone nemorosa, Deschampsia cespitosa and Thamnium alopecurum are confined to ancient woodland. Glechoma hederacea, Prunus padus, Lysimachia nummularia, Ribes rubrum and Lychnis floscuculi have a significant affinity for recent woods.R-type prineipal components analysis produced an effective ordination of species and relevés. Interpretation of the scatter diagrams was performed using indicator values for the species and some environmental parameters for the relevés. Two major gradients were detected: the first one is the coenocline from wet, basic clay soils towards drier, more acidic, sandy soils. Anthropogenic dynamics, through the general management which effects the micro-climate in the wood, particularly the relative light intensity, has been recognized as the second ecological parameter.The potential natural vegetation of the valleys is thus determined primarily by soil texture and soil moisture, and secondarily by former land use (and age). It takes at least 200 years before old woodland species start to colonize recent woodland.We are much indebted to Prof. Dr. P. Van der Veken for his criticism of the manuscipt and to B. Kuziel en G. Dujardin for reviewing the English text.Nomenclature follows De Langhe et al. (1978) for vascular plants and Margadant (1973) & Margadant & During (1973) for bryophytes.Dedicated to the memory of Dr. Ir. G. Sissingh (1912–1979).This study was supported by a grant from the Instituut tot aanmoediging van het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek in Nijverheid en Landbouw and since 1 October 1979 from the Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.     

Methane indicator values for peatlands: a comparison of species and functional groups

Previous studies have shown a correspondence between the abundance of particular plant species and methane flux. Here, we apply multivariate analyses, and weighted averaging, to assess the suitability of vegetation composition as a predictor of methane flux. We developed a functional classification of the vegetation, in terms of a number of plant traits expected to influence methane production and transport, and compared this with a purely taxonomic classification at species level and higher. We applied weighted averaging and indirect and direct ordination approaches to six sites in the United Kingdom, and found good relationships between methane flux and vegetation composition (classified both taxonomically and functionally). Plant species and functional groups also showed meaningful responses to management and experimental treatments. In addition to the United Kingdom, we applied the functional group classification across different geographical regions (Canada and the Netherlands) to assess the generality of the method. Again, the relationship appeared good at the site level, suggesting some general applicability of the functional classification. The method seems to have the potential for incorporation into large‐scale (national) greenhouse gas accounting programmes (in relation to peatland condition/management) using vegetation mapping schemes. The results presented here strongly suggest that robust predictive models can be derived using plant species data (for use in national‐scale studies). For trans‐national‐scale studies, where the taxonomic assemblage of vegetation differs widely between study sites, a functional classification of plant species data provides an appropriate basis for predictive models of methane flux.     

An application of different bioindicators for assessing water quality: a case study in the rivers Alfeios and Pineios (Peloponnisos, Greece)

A number of bioindicators and biotic indices and scores based on benthic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, fishes, aquatic and riparian vegetation in relation to physicochemical parameters have been applied in assessing the water quality of the rivers Alfeios and Pineios (Peloponnisos, Greece). According to the findings, the water quality in both rivers varied from very poor to very good. Among the bioindicators used, the benthic macroinvertebrates seem to be the most reliable. The BBI and IBE were the most applicable indexes while the applicability of the IBMWP and IASPT in the Greek region can be enforced with the inclusion of the Diptreran family Rhagionidae and the Coleopteran family Elminthidae.     

An ecological validation of a taxonomic distinction: the ecology of Acanthocyclops vernalis and A. robustus (Crustacea: Gopepoda)

Long-standing taxonomic problems involving the vernalis complex of freshwater cyclopoid copepods of the genus Acanthocyclops have now been largely resolved, at least in Europe. Two species, A. vernalis and A. robustus , are recognizable on unambiguous morphological criteria, but each shows variation of a simular kind. Ecological data confirm this distinction. Ecological preferences are themselves reflected by the distribution patterns displayed in a restricted, but not small, area encompassing a diversity of environments. A. vernalis is eurytopic but displays a preference for acidic, calcium-poor waters, low in total ions, and is exclusively benthic. By contrast A. robustus does not colonize strongly acidic waters (min. pH 6.42) and is restricted to alkaline, or weakly acidic, nutrient-rich habitats. In some situations it becomes pelagic. While A. vernalis extends throughout the area frequented by A. robustus , the latter fails to colonize large tracts of upland country for which A. vernalis shows a definite preference and where it is common and widespread.     

Marine mites (Halacaroidea: Acari): a geographical and ecological survey

Halacarid mites (Acari), with almost 700 species described, inhabit marine and freshwater habitats. The majority of genera are recorded from at least two ocean basins or continents. There is no evidence of endemic genera, in either littoral faunal provinces or in deep-sea regions. Copidognathus, a genus comprising 1/4 of all species described, is found in almost all geographic regions, depths and habitats. Other genera dominate or are restricted to cold waters, to warm waters or to distinct habitats.Corresponding habitats on either side of the boreal Atlantic Ocean harbour congeneric, identical, sibling or morphologically similar species. The fauna in the western Atlantic is less diverse than that in the eastern. Amphiatlantics are restricted to certain genera. Transatlantic distribution is independent of the niche inhabited.Of the marine halacarid species recorded from the boreal western Atlantic, 41% are amphiatlantics, while only one species is recorded from both the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. The Caribbean and the Mediterranean faunas are dominated by genera in which amphiatlantics are unknown.Most of the Black Sea species of the genus Halacarellus also occur in the Baltic, North Sea or North Atlantic, whereas the Copidognathus fauna of the Black Sea is similar to that of the Mediterranean.Halacarids are thought to be an ancient taxon, with most genera probably having been present since the Mesozoic and with several species having an age of at least 50 million years. Evidence for their antiquity is found in the distributional pattern of marine and limnic genera and species, in the lack of endemic genera despite low fecundity and lack of dispersal stages, and in the fact that amphiatlantics are restricted to certain genera without relationships to the niches inhabited.     

道路网络理论在景观破碎化效应研究中的运用——以浙江省公路网络为例

随着道路的不断建设,道路网络对自然生态环境的影响效应日益显著,众多生态学家开始从道路网络与自然景观的空间位置入手,研究不同组织形式的道路网络对自然生态系统产生的不同影响,从而探讨生态最优化的道路网络组织模式.旨在研究浙江省的干线公路网络对自然生态环境造成的影响,从而探讨生态最优化的道路网络组织模式.总结了道路网路理论的最新研究进展,介绍了由R. T. T. Forman和J. A. G. Jaeger提出的两个道路网络影响模型;随后运用Forman教授的道路网络理论分析了浙江省干线公路网络对森林景观的破碎化影响,并运用公路影响阈值分析方法对破坏较为严重的森林景观斑块进行了更为深入的分析,结果表明:国道、省道网络侵占的森林面积较大,对森林生态服务功能的发挥有着较大的影响;高速公路网络则使得森林景观斑块严重降级和破碎,极大地影响着生物多样性的保护.若按照目前的公路规划,到2020年底,由国道、省道和高速公路共同形成的道路网络将对浙江省的森林景观系统造成严重破坏;最后,对浙江省公路网络的布局提出了5点调整建议.     

Microhabitat preference of sympatric Hydraena Kugelann, 1794 species (Coleoptera: Hydraenidae) in a low-order forest stream

Aim of this study was to investigate the presence and distribution of Hydraenidae in relation to selected abiotic parameters in a single, uniform riffle of the Caramagna Stream (northwestern Italy). Six species belonging to the genus of Hydraena Kugelann, 1794 were found (H. andreinii D'Orchymont, 1934, H. subimpressa Rey, 1885, H. assimilis Rey, 1885, H. heterogyna Bedel, 1898, H. truncata Rey, 1884 and H. devillei Ganglbauer, 1901), with evident niche preferences. Our study provided interesting information about ecological requirements of minute moss beetles at small-scale and evidenced that maintaining elevate habitat diversity is essential to preserve high species abundance at local scale.     

Understanding the germination of bulbils from an ecological perspective: a case study on Chinese yam (Dioscorea polystachya)

Background and Aims

Bulbils serve as a means of vegetative reproduction and of dispersal for many plants; this latter aspect making them analogous to seeds. However, germination of bulbils may differ considerably from seeds due to dissimilar anatomical structures and perhaps environmental cue perception. The few laboratory studies done on bulbils suggest that their germination is similar to that of seeds in the same habitats and to vegetative buds of winter-dormant plants. The present study is the first to examine how bulbil germination is controlled in nature in relation to dispersal (before vs. after winter of the same cohort) and to ambient temperatures.

Methods

Under laboratory conditions, temperature and light requirements for root and shoot emergences from bulbils of Dioscorea polystachya collected in September, 2005, February, 2006 (produced in 2005) and July, 2006 were determined. Effects of cold stratification and dry storage for releasing dormancy were tested on September and July bulbils. The phenology of dormancy release and of root and shoot emergences and the persistence of bulbils in soil were followed over time under field conditions.

Key Results

Although a low percentage of bulbils collected in July or in September produced roots, but no shoots, in the laboratory and field, these roots died within approx. 1 month. Regardless of collection date, cold stratification markedly increased root and shoot emergences. Bulbils sown outdoors in October produced roots and shoots the following March and April, respectively. The soil bulbil bank is short lived.

Conclusions

Bulbils of D. polystachya are similar to seeds of many temperate plants being mostly dormant when dispersed in summer or autumn and overcoming dormancy with cold stratification during winter. Adaptively, bulbil germination primarily occurs in spring at the beginning of a favourable period for survivorship and growth.     

Relationships between macrophytic vegetation and physical features of river habitats: the need for a morphological approach

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the physical features of rivers and the distribution of macrophyte vegetation. Field work was undertaken at 207 stations along the Scorff River and its tributaries, a salmon river system in southern Brittany (western France). The physical features were considered using a principal component analysis (PCA). Stepwise multiple regression models made it possible to assess their relationships with the botanical data. The first five axes of the physical PCA (used as explicative variables) were initially linked to the most frequently surveyed species, then to their eco-morphological types, and, finally to Arber’s (1920. Water Plants. A Study of Aquatic Angiosperms. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 414 pp) morphological classification. It was concluded that plant morphology was closely related to these environmental factors. This could contribute to the development of predictive models for plant distribution and could increase the knowledge of reference vegetation related to bioindication systems.     

An inter-regional approach to intraspecific variation in habitat association: Rock Buntings Emberiza cia as a case study

The habitat association approach has been increasingly used in ecology to resolve problems in wildlife conservation and management. One problem related to habitat association studies is that they are restricted to small geographical areas within a species' range, and thus they are applicable to only a limited set of environmental conditions utilized by the species. In addition, very few studies address why the preference for specific habitat components may be adaptive for the species in question. The objective of this study was to examine how consideration of populations of a species from two dramatically different environments affects the results of habitat association modelling for a ground-nesting passerine, the Rock Bunting Emberiza cia . At a regional scale, a trend to defending breeding habitat patches with relatively higher stone cover was confined to birds from a temperate region in Slovakia. In contrast, in a semi-arid region in southeastern Spain, Rock Buntings preferred to use breeding habitat patches that had relatively higher grass cover. Combining data from both regions, breeding Rock Buntings showed a general pattern of using habitat patches close to hedges, with low bush cover, high ditch density and a steep slope. Whereas regional habitat association models appear to be sensitive to the particularities of the breeding environment, our study suggests that Rock Bunting breeding habitat association is constrained by the adults' tactics to protect themselves against predators. Although the birds prefer to nest in patches of low vegetation, the better to see nearby predators, these patches are ideally close to taller vegetation that can be used to provide cover when evading predators, and they are also of a rugged profile that helps the birds to approach and leave the nest stealthily.     

An AHP-weighted aggregated data quality indicator (AWADQI) approach for estimating embodied energy of building materials

Purpose

Aggregated data quality indicator (ADQI) method has been used to estimate probability distributions of the input data in a life cycle assessment (LCA) to compensate for insufficient data in a statistical analysis. In a traditional ADQI, a multicriteria evaluation process, the impacts of various quality indicators under investigation are often equally weighted or unweighted despite the fact that some of them may weight more than the others on contributing to the overall data uncertainty. An unweighted ADQI (UWADQI) approach, though simple, may lead to incorrect conclusions. This paper aims to develop a weighted ADQI to overcome the deficiency of the unweighted ADQI to make it more reliable for LCA uncertainty analysis.

Method

To improve the UWADQI approach, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced in this research for estimating weighting factors in the ADQI aggregation process. An AHP??s pairwise comparison function is used to determine the weighting of each data quality indicator. Three common building materials of concrete, steel, and glass were chosen to validate the presented method.

Results and discussion

Using the published results from the statistical method as the benchmarks, it was found that the proposed AHP-weighted ADQI (AWADQI) method lead to better estimated probabilistic values of embodied energy intensity than the traditional UWADQI approach for the three building materials.

Conclusions and recommendations

In conclusion, using AHP to incorporate weighing factors into an ADQI process can improve the uncertainty estimate of embodied energy of building materials, and consequently, the method can improve the reliability of a building LCA.     

An approach to evaluating ecological status of populations in forest-nesting birds (Passeriformes and Piciformes)

A 13-year study of forest-nesting birds (orders Passeriformes and Piciformes) has been conducted at five constant census areas in European Russia, Caucasus, and the mountains of Southern Siberia. The nesting individuals are mapped at each census area for two or more nesting periods. The nesting densities for each species are estimated. Raster maps of spatial allocation (MSA) at the scale of the raster grid of 50 × 50 m are obtained for each species. The degree of spatial conservatism (DSC) for each local population is inferred from the pairwise comparisons of the specific MSAs obtained at the same area in different years with the use of the Gamma rank correlation method. This index characterizes the connection of population with the habitat. Based on 5-year observations at that particular census area, the areas of habitats are estimated (Y) and mean DSC values (X) are obtained for all 18 model species. Using the regression model (Y = 117–103.5X; R = 0.84; p < 0.01), it is demonstrated that, under conditions of almost complete saturation, when a population uses almost the entire area of available habitats and maximum carrying capacity of habitat is almost achieved, the total area occupied by the individual nesting home ranges of the particular species is in an inverse linear relationship with the DSC estimates. Based on this model, it is possible to calculate the maximum carrying capacity of habitat for each species from its DSC value. Maximum nesting density for each species at a particular census area is calculated based on its DSC values and mean size of its nesting home range. The ratio between observed and maximum nesting densities allows estimating the degree of saturation of carrying capacity of habitat and the population status of a particular species under different environmental conditions.     

Assessing the ecological values of rivers: an application of a multi-criteria approach to rivers of the South Coast Region,Western Australia

There is a growing awareness that in the light of increased threats, Australia’s freshwater ecosystems of highest value need to be protected. This implies that a consistent and comprehensive system for the classification of freshwater systems in terms of their ecological values is required for conservation planning. Despite earlier steps taken to develop appropriate methodologies for prioritising Australian waterways for protection, there is, as yet, no nationally agreed method for prioritising waterways in Australia based on their ecological values. Using the core criteria of naturalness, representativeness, diversity, rarity and special features, this paper describes the development of a framework of criteria, indicators and measures for the identification of high conservation value aquatic ecosystems, and trials this system by undertaking a comparative assessment of the ecological values of river systems in the South Coast region, Western Australia. A total of 33 river systems located in two aquatic bioregions were successfully ranked according to their ecological value, confirming that the development and implementation of a relatively simple system for assessing ecological values of Australian rivers shows promise, and that core criteria identified previously in the literature provide a good starting point for assessing ecological values of Australian aquatic ecosystems.