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1.
John R. Williams Michel Alary Catherine M. Lowndes Luc Béhanzin Annie-Claude Labbé Séverin Anagonou Marguerite Ndour Isaac Minani Clément Ahoussinou Djimon Marcel Zannou Marie-Claude Boily 《PloS one》2014,9(7)
Background
A comprehensive, HIV prevention programme (Projet Sida1/2/3) was implemented among female sex workers (FSWs) in Cotonou, Benin, in 1993 following which condom use among FSWs increased threefold between 1993 and 2008 while FSW HIV prevalence declined from 53.3% to 30.4%.Objective
Estimate the potential impact of the intervention on HIV prevalence/incidence in FSWs, clients and the general population in Cotonou, Benin.Methods and Findings
A transmission dynamics model parameterised with setting-specific bio-behavioural data was used within a Bayesian framework to fit the model and simulate HIV transmission in the high and low-risk population of Cotonou and to estimate HIV incidence and infections averted by SIDA1/2/3. Our model results suggest that prior to SIDA1/2/3 commercial sex had contributed directly or indirectly to 93% (84–98%) of all cumulative infections and that the observed decline in FSWs HIV prevalence was more consistent with the self-reported post-intervention increase in condom use by FSWs than a counterfactual assuming no change in condom use after 1993 (CF-1). Compared to the counterfactual (CF-1), the increase in condom use may have prevented 62% (52–71%) of new HIV infections among FSWs between 1993 and 2008 and 33% (20–46%) in the overall population.Conclusions
Our analysis provides plausible evidence that the post-intervention increase in condom use during commercial sex significantly reduced HIV prevalence and incidence among FSWs and general population. Sex worker interventions can be effective even in medium HIV prevalence epidemics and need to be sustained over the long-term. 相似文献2.
Anna Vassall Sudhashree Chandrashekar Michael Pickles Tara S. Beattie Govindraj Shetty Parinita Bhattacharjee Marie-Claude Boily Peter Vickerman Janet Bradley Michel Alary Stephen Moses CHARME India Group Charlotte Watts 《PloS one》2014,9(10)
Background
Most HIV prevention for female sex workers (FSWs) focuses on individual behaviour change involving peer educators, condom promotion and the provision of sexual health services. However, there is a growing recognition of the need to address broader societal, contextual and structural factors contributing to FSW risk behaviour. We assess the cost-effectiveness of adding community mobilisation (CM) and empowerment interventions (eg. community mobilisation, community involvement in programme management and services, violence reduction, and addressing legal policies and police practices), to core HIV prevention services delivered as part of Avahan in two districts (Bellary and Belgaum) of Karnataka state, Southern India.Methods
An ingredients approach was used to estimate economic costs in US$ 2011 from an HIV programme perspective of CM and empowerment interventions over a seven year period (2004–2011). Incremental impact, in terms of HIV infections averted, was estimated using a two-stage process. An ‘exposure analysis’ explored whether exposure to CM was associated with FSW’s empowerment, risk behaviours and HIV/STI prevalence. Pathway analyses were then used to estimate the extent to which behaviour change may be attributable to CM and to inform a dynamic HIV transmission model.Findings
The incremental costs of CM and empowerment were US$ 307,711 in Belgaum and US$ 592,903 in Bellary over seven years (2004–2011). Over a 7-year period (2004–2011) the mean (standard deviation, sd.) number of HIV infections averted through CM and empowerment is estimated to be 1257 (308) in Belgaum and 2775 (1260) in Bellary. This translates in a mean (sd.) incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted of US$ 14.12 (3.68) in Belgaum and US$ 13.48 (6.80) for Bellary - well below the World Health Organisation recommended willingness to pay threshold for India. When savings from ART are taken into account, investments in CM and empowerment are cost saving.Conclusions
Our findings suggest that CM and empowerment is, at worst, highly cost-effective and, at best, a cost-saving investment from an HIV programme perspective. CM and empowerment interventions should therefore be considered as core components of HIV prevention programmes for FSWs. 相似文献3.
Martial L. Ndeffo Mbah Eric M. Poolman Katherine E. Atkins Evan W. Orenstein Lauren Ancel Meyers Jeffrey P. Townsend Alison P. Galvani 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2013,7(8)
Background
Epidemiological data from Zimbabwe suggests that genital infection with Schistosoma haematobium may increase the risk of HIV infection in young women. Therefore, the treatment of Schistosoma haematobium with praziquantel could be a potential strategy for reducing HIV infection. Here we assess the potential cost-effectiveness of praziquantel as a novel intervention strategy against HIV infection.Methods
We developed a mathematical model of female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) and HIV infections in Zimbabwe that we fitted to cross-sectional data of FGS and HIV prevalence of 1999. We validated our epidemic projections using antenatal clinic data on HIV prevalence. We simulated annual praziquantel administration to school-age children. We then used these model predictions to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of annual administration of praziquantel as a potential measure to reduce the burden of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.Findings
We showed that for a variation of efficacy between 30–70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the enhanced risk of HIV transmission per sexual act due to FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children in Zimbabwe could result in net savings of US$16–101 million compared with no mass treatment of schistosomiasis over a ten-year period. For a variation in efficacy between 30–70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the acquisition of FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children could result in net savings of US$36−92 million over a ten-year period.Conclusions
In addition to reducing schistosomiasis burden, mass praziquantel administration may be a highly cost-effective way of reducing HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Program costs per case of HIV averted are similar to, and under some conditions much better than, other interventions that are currently implemented in Africa to reduce HIV transmission. As a cost-saving strategy, mass praziquantel administration should be prioritized over other less cost-effective public health interventions. 相似文献4.
Kate M. Mitchell Andrew P. Cox David Mabey Joseph D. Tucker Rosanna W. Peeling Peter Vickerman 《PloS one》2013,8(1)
Background
In China, female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of syphilis infection, but are hard to reach for interventions. Point-of-care testing introduces opportunities for expanding syphilis control measures. Modelling is used to estimate the impact of using rapid tests to screen FSWs for syphilis. In other settings, modelling has predicted large rebounds in infectious syphilis following screening, which may undermine any impact achieved.Methods
A deterministic syphilis transmission model among FSWs and clients was fitted to data from Yunnan Province (FSW syphilis prevalence = 7.5%), and used to estimate the impact of rapid syphilis testing and treatment for FSWs. Impact projections were compared for different model structures that included risk heterogeneity amongst FSWs, incoming syphilis infections amongst new FSWs and clients and re-infection from FSWs'' regular non-commercial partners. The rebound in syphilis prevalence after screening ceased was explored.Results
All model structures suggest yearly syphilis screening could substantially reduce (by 72–88%) syphilis prevalence amongst FSWs in this setting over five years. However, incoming syphilis infections amongst new FSWs and clients or re-infections from regular non-commercial partners of FSWs can considerably reduce (>30%) the proportion of infections averted. Including heterogeneity in risk amongst FSWs had little effect upon the proportion of infections averted. In this setting, the rebound in syphilis prevalence after screening ceased is predicted to be slight, but it could be large in high prevalence settings.Conclusions
Rapid test screening could dramatically reduce syphilis prevalence amongst hard-to-reach groups, but strategies to reduce re-infection from regular non-commercial partners are needed to maximise impact. 相似文献5.
Hongyan Lu Yu Liu Kapil Dahiya Han-Zhu Qian Wensheng Fan Li Zhang Juntao Ma Yuhua Ruan Yiming Shao Sten H. Vermund Lu Yin 《PloS one》2013,8(8)
Objective
To evaluate the effect of risk reduction interventions on HIV knowledge, attitudes and behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China.Methods
We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV risk reduction intervention studies among Chinese MSM. The summary difference of standardized mean differences (SMD) between both study arms or between pre- and post-intervention assessments were defined as the effect size (ES); ES was calculated using standard meta-analysis in random effects models.Results
Thirty-four eligible studies were included in the analysis, including two randomized clinical trials (RCT), six quasi-experimental studies, six pre-and-post intervention studies, and twenty serial cross-sectional intervention studies. These studies showed an increase in consistent condom use with any male sexual partners (mean ES, 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35–0.56), with regular sexual partners (mean ES, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.18–0.63), and casual sexual partners (mean ES, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.24–0.79). The analysis of ten studies that measured the impact on uptake of HIV testing also showed a positive result (mean ES, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38–0.71). The risk reduction interventions also improved HIV/AIDS-related knowledge (mean ES, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60–0.94) and attitudes (mean ES, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.91–1.79), but did not reduce prevalence of HIV (mean ES, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.02–0.45) and syphilis infections (mean ES, −0.01; 95% CI, −0.19–0.17). There was significant heterogeneity among these studies.Conclusions
On aggregate, HIV risk reduction interventions were effective in reducing risky behaviors and improving knowledge and attitudes among Chinese MSM, but were not associated with a change in the prevalence of HIV and syphilis. Future studies should use incidence as definitive study outcome. 相似文献6.
Brooke E. Nichols Charles A. B. Boucher Janneke H. van Dijk Phil E. Thuma Jan L. Nouwen Rob Baltussen Janneke van de Wijgert Peter M. A. Sloot David A. M. C. van de Vijver 《PloS one》2013,8(3)
Background
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia.Methods
A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm3. We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5–15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40–60% of the total population on PrEP.Results
Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios.Conclusions
Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect. 相似文献7.
Background
Commercial sex workers within the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in China, known as ‘money boys’ (MBs), are perceived to be at higher risk for HIV and other sexually-transmissible infections (STIs).Methods
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses from peer-reviewed literature accessed in two English (PubMed and Embase) and three Chinese databases (CNKI, CQVIP, Wanfang data). A data synthesis exercise was carried out to determine the extent and patterns of behaviours and HIV/STI epidemics. Pooled estimates, with 95% confidence intervals, for each study variable were calculated.Results
Thirty-two eligible articles (9 in English and 23 in Chinese) were identified. Our analysis indicated that Chinese MBs are generally young, currently employed, at low literacy levels and highly mobile. The prevalence of HIV, syphilis and co-infection among MBs were estimated to be 6.0% (4.2–8.5%), 12.4% (9.9–15.3%) and 2.2% (1.1–4.1%) over the period of 2004–2011. Level of condom use among MBs is generally higher than the broader MSM population (69.2% at last act, and 48.5% consistently over the past 6 months). One-third of the Chinese MBs identified themselves as bisexual and 8.7% (5.6–13.5%) are currently married to a female. Further, 40.9% (34.5–47.7%) of MBs participated in group sex in the past 12 months and 14.8% (10.6–20.3%) concurrently use illicit drugs.Conclusions
HIV/STI epidemics have affected Chinese MBs but the evidence suggests that the extent of infections is not greater than among other MSM in China. 相似文献8.
Background
Female sex workers (FSWs) play an important role in transmitting HIV and syphilis from high-risk groups to the general population. However, the trends in HIV and syphilis epidemics in Chinese FSWs in the period after 2000 are unclear to date.Methods
The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Statement was followed. Seven databases were searched for published peer-reviewed articles. The incidence of HIV and syphilis in FSWs in different time periods, provinces and workplaces in China were separately pooled by meta-analysis. Correlation analysis was conducted between HIV and syphilis incidence and study time, respectively.Results
After 1,662 articles were screened, 190 published papers were included in the final analysis. Estimated HIV prevalence was 0.284% (95% CI: 0.080–0.488%) in the period 2000–2002, 0.211% (95% CI: 0.149–0.273%) in 2003–2005, 0.242% (95% CI: 0.190–0.294%) in 2006–2008 and 0.041% (95% CI: 0.024–0.058%) in 2009–2011. The corresponding syphilis prevalence was 9.669% (95% CI: 7.810–11.529%), 4.970% (95% CI: 4.384–5.556%), 4.404% (95% CI: 4.032–4.775%) and 3.169% (95% CI: 2.738–3.600%), respectively. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were −0.165 (p = 0.002) between HIV prevalence and study time, and −0.209 (p = 0.000) between syphilis prevalence and study time. The combined HIV prevalence was 0.318% (95% CI: 0.156–0.479%) in medium and high-tier workplaces and 0.393% (95% CI: 0.176–0.610%) in low-tier workplaces. The corresponding syphilis prevalence was 3.216% (95% CI: 2.192–4.240%) and 13.817% (95% CI: 10.589–17.044%), respectively.Conclusions
Our data suggested a decline in HIV and syphilis epidemics in FSWs in China on a national level during the study period (2000–2011). FSWs in low-tier workplaces should be given more attention in the future to ensure they are included in prevention programs for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. 相似文献9.
Yongze Li Junjie Xu Kathleen H. Reilly Jianming Zhang Hongyi Wei Yongjun Jiang Wenqing Geng Weiming Tang Hong Shang 《PloS one》2013,8(7)
Objectives
The aim of this study is to systematically review the published studies and summarize the estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalences among high school and college student MSM in China in order to provide information for conducting targeted interventions.Methods
Pubmed, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang and Google Scholar databases were searched in January 2013 to identify relevant articles. Data of eligible citations were extracted by two reviewers. All analyses were performed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis V2.0 and SPSS V17.0.Results
Twenty-four eligible studies (6 in English and 18 in Chinese), published between 2006 and 2012, with a total of 3083 student MSM participants, were included. The meta-analyses showed that the prevalences of HIV and syphilis among studied student MSM were 4.4% (95% CI: 3.0%, 6.4%) and 5.7% (95% CI: 4.8%, 6.7%), respectively. HIV prevalence increased over the study period (3.0% in 2003–2006; 4.5% in 2007–2008, and 6.8% in 2009–2010, trend test chi-square = 11.3, p = 0.001).Conclusions
Student MSM have become high-risk populations for HIV infection in China. The high prevalence of syphilis and the increasing HIV prevalence trend indicate the potential for a more severe HIV epidemic. Comprehensive intervention strategies that address condom promotion, syphilis detection and treatment, and health education need to be tailored to this vulnerable population to prevent HIV and syphilis infections. 相似文献10.
Background
Uganda has one of the highest total fertility rates (TFR) worldwide. We compared the effects of antiretroviral (ARV) prophylaxis for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) to that of existing family planning (FP) use and estimated the burden of pediatric HIV disease due to unwanted fertility.Methodology/Principal Findings
Using the demographic software Spectrum, a baseline mathematical projection to estimate the current pediatric HIV burden in Uganda was compared to three hypothetical projections: 1) without ARV-PMTCT (to estimate the effect of ARV-PMTCT), 2) without contraception (effect of existing FP use), 3) without unwanted fertility (effect of unmet FP needs). Key input parameters included HIV prevalence, ARV-PMTCT uptake, MTCT probabilities, and TFR. We estimate that in 2007, an estimated 25,000 vertical infections and 17,000 pediatric AIDS deaths occurred (baseline projection). Existing ARV-PMTCT likely averted 8.1% of infections and 8.5% of deaths. FP use likely averted 19.7% of infections and 13.1% of deaths. Unwanted fertility accounted for 21.3% of infections and 13.4% of deaths. During 2008–2012, an estimated 131,000 vertical infections and 71,000 pediatric AIDS deaths will occur. The projected scale up of ARV-PMTCT (from 39%–57%) may avert 18.1% of infections and 24.5% of deaths. Projected FP use may avert 21.6% of infections and 18.5% of deaths. Unwanted fertility will account for 24.5% of infections and 19.8% of deaths.Conclusions
Existing FP use contributes as much or more than ARV-PMTCT in mitigating pediatric HIV in Uganda. Expanding FP services can substantially contribute towards PMTCT. 相似文献11.
Objective
Men who have sex with men (MSM) practice role segregation – insertive or receptive only sex positions instead of a versatile role - in several international settings where candidate biomedical HIV prevention interventions (e.g., circumcision, anal microbicide) will be tested. The effects of these position-specific interventions on HIV incidence are modeled.Materials and Methods
We developed a deterministic compartmental model to predict HIV incidence among Indian MSM using data from 2003–2010. The model’s sex mixing matrix was derived from network data of Indian MSM (n = 4604). Our model captures changing distribution of sex roles over time. We modeled microbicide and circumcision efficacy on trials with heterosexuals.Results
Increasing numbers of versatile MSM resulted in little change in HIV incidence over 20 years. Anal microbicides and circumcision would decrease the HIV prevalence at 10 years from 15.6% to 12.9% and 12.7% respectively. Anal microbicides would provide similar protection to circumcision at the population level despite lower modeled efficacy (54% and 60% risk reduction, respectively). Combination of the interventions were additive: in 5 years, the reduction in HIV prevalence of the combination (−3.2%) is almost the sum of their individual reductions in HIV prevalence (−1.8% and −1.7%).Conclusions
MSM sex role segregation and mixing, unlike changes in the sex role distribution, may be important for evaluating HIV prevention interventions in international settings. Synergies between some position-specific prevention interventions such as circumcision and anal microbicides warrant further study. 相似文献12.
Ramzi A. Alsallaq Jared M. Baeten Connie L. Celum James P. Hughes Laith J. Abu-Raddad Ruanne V. Barnabas Timothy B. Hallett 《PloS one》2013,8(1)
Objectives
Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.Methods
We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.Results
Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10–15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.Conclusion
High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations. 相似文献13.
Thomas M. Rehle Timothy B. Hallett Olive Shisana Victoria Pillay-van Wyk Khangelani Zuma Henri Carrara Sean Jooste 《PloS one》2010,5(6)
Background
Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.Methods and Principal Findings
We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated “excess” HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002–2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15–49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2–3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15–24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5–6.5). In the period 2005–2008, incidence among men and women aged 15–49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6–2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002–2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15–24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.Conclusions
Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence. 相似文献14.
Steven M. Goodreau Nicole B. Carnegie Eric Vittinghoff Javier R. Lama Jonathan D. Fuchs Jorge Sanchez Susan P. Buchbinder 《PloS one》2014,9(7)
Background
Three trials have demonstrated the prophylactic effect of male circumcision (MC) for HIV acquisition among heterosexuals, and MC interventions are underway throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Similar efforts for men who have sex with men (MSM) are stymied by the potential for circumcised MSM to acquire HIV easily through receptive sex and transmit easily through insertive sex. Existing work suggests that MC for MSM should reach its maximum potential in settings where sexual role segregation is historically high and relatively stable across the lifecourse; HIV incidence among MSM is high; reported willingness for prophylactic circumcision is high; and pre-existing circumcision rates are low. We aim to identify the likely public health impact that MC interventions among MSM would have in one setting that fulfills these conditions—Peru—as a theoretical upper bound for their effectiveness among MSM generally.Methods and Findings
We use a dynamic, stochastic sexual network model based in exponential-family random graph modeling and parameterized from multiple behavioral surveys of Peruvian MSM. We consider three enrollment criteria (insertive during 100%, >80% or >60% of UAI) and two levels of uptake (25% and 50% of eligible men); we explore sexual role proportions from two studies and different frequencies of switching among role categories. Each scenario is simulated 10 times. We estimate that efficiency could reach one case averted per 6 circumcisions. However, the population-level impact of an optimistic MSM-MC intervention in this setting would likely be at most ∼5–10% incidence and prevalence reductions over 25 years.Conclusions
Roll-out of MC for MSM in Peru would not result in a substantial reduction in new HIV infections, despite characteristics in this population that could maximize such effects. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results for other MSM populations, and providers may consider the individual health benefits of offering MC to their MSM patients. 相似文献15.
Ghina R. Mumtaz Helen A. Weiss Sara L. Thomas Suzanne Riome Hamidreza Setayesh Gabriele Riedner Iris Semini Oussama Tawil Francisca Ayodeji Akala David Wilson Laith J. Abu-Raddad 《PLoS medicine》2014,11(6)
Background
It is perceived that little is known about the epidemiology of HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The primary objective of this study was to assess the status of the HIV epidemic among PWID in MENA by describing HIV prevalence and incidence. Secondary objectives were to describe the risk behavior environment and the HIV epidemic potential among PWID, and to estimate the prevalence of injecting drug use in MENA.Methods and Findings
This was a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines and covering 23 MENA countries. PubMed, Embase, regional and international databases, as well as country-level reports were searched up to December 16, 2013. Primary studies reporting (1) the prevalence/incidence of HIV, other sexually transmitted infections, or hepatitis C virus (HCV) among PWIDs; or (2) the prevalence of injecting or sexual risk behaviors, or HIV knowledge among PWID; or (3) the number/proportion of PWID in MENA countries, were eligible for inclusion. The quality, quantity, and geographic coverage of the data were assessed at country level. Risk of bias in predefined quality domains was described to assess the quality of available HIV prevalence measures. After multiple level screening, 192 eligible reports were included in the review. There were 197 HIV prevalence measures on a total of 58,241 PWID extracted from reports, and an additional 226 HIV prevalence measures extracted from the databases.We estimated that there are 626,000 PWID in MENA (range: 335,000–1,635,000, prevalence of 0.24 per 100 adults). We found evidence of HIV epidemics among PWID in at least one-third of MENA countries, most of which are emerging concentrated epidemics and with HIV prevalence overall in the range of 10%–15%. Some of the epidemics have however already reached considerable levels including some of the highest HIV prevalence among PWID globally (87.1% in Tripoli, Libya). The relatively high prevalence of sharing needles/syringes (18%–28% in the last injection), the low levels of condom use (20%–54% ever condom use), the high levels of having sex with sex workers and of men having sex with men (15%–30% and 2%–10% in the last year, respectively), and of selling sex (5%–29% in the last year), indicate a high injecting and sexual risk environment. The prevalence of HCV (31%–64%) and of sexually transmitted infections suggest high levels of risk behavior indicative of the potential for more and larger HIV epidemics.Conclusions
Our study identified a large volume of HIV-related biological and behavioral data among PWID in the MENA region. The coverage and quality of the data varied between countries. There is robust evidence for HIV epidemics among PWID in multiple countries, most of which have emerged within the last decade and continue to grow. The lack of sufficient evidence in some MENA countries does not preclude the possibility of hidden epidemics among PWID in these settings. With the HIV epidemic among PWID in overall a relatively early phase, there is a window of opportunity for prevention that should not be missed through the provision of comprehensive programs, including scale-up of harm reduction services and expansion of surveillance systems. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献16.
Michal Czerwinski Louise-Anne McNutt Jack A. DeHovitz Andrzej Zielinski Magdalena Rosinska 《PloS one》2013,8(7)
Objective
The goal of this study was to examine specific factors placing young (aged <30) women who inject drugs at higher risk for HIV, and to establish the need for targeted interventions within this population.Methods
A national cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted in 2004–2005 in six regions in Poland. A snowball sample of ever-injectors was recruited from drug treatment facilities and the surrounding community. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs).Results
A total of 491 injection drug users younger than 30 were recruited, of whom 159 were women and 332 were men. The prevalence of HIV was 16.4% and 9.6% among women and men, respectively. In multivariate analysis, young female injectors whose education terminated at the primary level were more likely to be HIV-positive compared to males with a similar level of education (PR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.86–6.00) and more highly educated women (PR = 4.16, 95% CI = 2.21–7.82).Conclusions
This study confirms an elevated risk of HIV among under-educated young women. Suggestions for specific interventions to reduce HIV transmission are presented. Additional research is needed to quantify the differential distribution of risk behaviors which amplify their likelihood of transmission. 相似文献17.
Geofrey Musinguzi Denis Bwayo Noah Kiwanuka Sheila Coutinho Aggrey Mukose Joseph Kabanda Lilian Sekabembe Fred Nuwaha 《PloS one》2014,9(1)
Introduction
HIV epidemics are sustained and propagated by new cases of infection which result from transmission from infected persons to uninfected susceptible individuals. People living with HIV (PLHIV) play a critical role in prevention if they adopt safer sexual behaviors. This study estimated the prevalence of and factors associated with safer sexual behaviors among PLHIV seeking care from civil society organizations (CSOs).Methods
In a cross sectional study PLHIV were interviewed about their sexual practices, use of alcohol, HIV status of their regular sexual partners, desire for more children and about their socio-demographic characteristics. We calculated the proportion of PLHIV who abstained and consistently used condoms in the previous twelve months. Independent associations between safer sex and other variables were estimated using adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results
Of the 939 PLHIV, 54% (508) were either abstaining or using condoms consistently and 291 (31%) desired more children. The prevalence of consistent condom use among the sexually active was 41.3% (300/731). Consistent condom use was higher among PLHIV who: didn''t use alcohol (aPR 1.30, CI 1.03–1.63); were educated about re-infection with a new strain of HIV (aPR 1.84, CI 1.08–3.12) and had regular sexual partner who was HIV negative (aPR 1.29, CI 1.05–1.57). Prevalence of abstinence was 22.2% (208/939). Abstinence increased with age from 9.4% among PLHIV <25 years to 40.5% among those >50 years. Abstinence was extremely low (2.5%) among PLHIV who were married.Conclusions
Effective interventions that reduce alcohol consumption among PLHIV are needed to avert HIV transmission, prevent acquisition of new HIV strains and STIs. In addition, strategies are needed to address needs of PLHIV who desire more children. 相似文献18.
Rand Stoneburner Eline Korenromp Mark Lazenby Jean-Michel Tassie Judith Letebele Diemo Motlapele Reuben Granich Ties Boerma Daniel Low-Beer 《PloS one》2014,9(7)
Introduction
Botswana''s AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD4<350 cells/µl by 2009–10. We explored impact on mortality and HIV prevalence, analyzing surveillance and civil registration data.Methods
Hospital natural cause admissions and deaths from the Health Statistics Unit (HSU) over 1990–2009, all-cause deaths from Midnight Bed Census (MNC) over 1990–2011, institutional and non-institutional deaths recorded in the Registry of Birth and Deaths (RBD) over 2003–2010, and antenatal sentinel surveillance (ANC) over 1992–2011 were compared to numbers of persons receiving ART. Mortality was adjusted for differential coverage and completeness of institutional and non-institutional deaths, and compared to WHO and UNAIDS Spectrum projections.Results
HSU deaths per 1000 admissions declined 49% in adults 15–64 years over 2003–2009. RBD mortality declined 44% (807 to 452/100,000 population in adults 15–64 years) over 2003–2010, similarly in males and females. Generally, death rates were higher in males; declines were greater and earlier in younger adults, and in females. In contrast, death rates in adults 65+, particularly females increased over 2003–2006. MNC all-age post-neonatal mortality declined 46% and 63% in primary and secondary level hospitals, over 2003–2011. We estimated RBD captured 80% of adult deaths over 2006–2011. Comparing empirical, completeness-adjusted deaths to Spectrum estimates, declines over 2003–2009 were similar overall (47% vs. 54%); however, Spectrum projected larger and earlier declines particularly in women. Following stabilization and modest decreases over 1998–2002, HIV prevalence in pregnant women 15–24 and 25–29-years declined by >50% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women.Conclusions
Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes. 相似文献19.
David W. Dowdy J. Lucian Davis Saskia den Boon Nicholas D. Walter Achilles Katamba Adithya Cattamanchi 《PloS one》2013,8(8)
Objective
To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).Methods
We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.Findings
Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.Conclusion
Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa. 相似文献20.
Lynn Ramirez-Avila Kristy Nixon Farzad Noubary Janet Giddy Elena Losina Rochelle P. Walensky Ingrid V. Bassett 《PloS one》2012,7(9)