Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using both documentary records (1914–87 and 1938–96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past several centuries. The two regions share similar fire–climate relationships and similar relationships of climatic anomalies to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Niño events coincide with above-average cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. Conversely, La Niña events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching from El Niño to La Niña conditions. El Niño conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when desiccated by La Niña conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence in both regions from c. 1780–1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO–fire relationships of the south-western USA and northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes.     

Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan

Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.     

Dynamics of the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil) during cold and warm ENSO episodes

In southern Brazil, cold ( La Niña ) and warm ( El Niño ) episodes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon cause drought and high rainfall, respectively. The low precipitation and freshwater outflow associated with La Niña during 1995–1996 were associated with an increase in the abundance of marine species in the Patos Lagoon estuary. During the 1997–1998 El Niño , high precipitation and river discharge were associated with low abundance of marine species in the estuary. ANOVA results showed a higher abundance during La Niña than El Niño for estuarine resident (RES) and estuarine dependent (DEP) fishes. During La Niña catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of RES increased from the marine to estuarine area, but during El Niño CPUE increased at the marine area and diminished during summer and autumn in some estuarine sites. DEP fishes had an opposite abundance pattern. During La Niña , these fishes were abundant at the coastal marine area and along some estuarine sites, but during El Niño , CPUE remained almost the same at the marine area but dropped along some estuarine sites. These different abundance patterns for dominant fish groups yielded a positive interaction between stations and climatic events. With higher river discharge and the consequent decline of dominant euryhaline fishes, such as Mugil platanus and Atherinella brasiliensis , freshwater species increased in abundance and richness in the shallow waters of the stuary. The ENSO phenomenon influences precipitation and estuarine salinity in southern Brazil and thereby seems to have a strong influence on recruitment, immigration, and emigration dynamics of fish species living within and adjacent to estuarine habitats.     

Population dynamics of a polychaete during three El Niño events: disentangling biotic and abiotic factors

The macrobenthic community in shallow soft-bottom areas in the Bay of Ancón, Peru, is characterised by low biodiversity due to low oxygen concentrations. During El Niño events, higher temperature and higher concentrations of dissolved oxygen induce a temporary increase in biodiversity. However, the structure and dynamics of the emerging communities vary strongly among events. The reasons for this variation are poorly understood, in particular the relative influence of abiotic vs biotic factors. To disentangle the roles of abiotic and biotic factors, population models based on detailed monitoring data of three El Niño events were developed focused on the population dynamics of one species in the community, the polychaete Sigambra bassi , which showed different responses in different El Niño events. Calculated and observed population dynamics are compared using root mean square deviation (RMSD). The results show that S. bassi abundance can be determined by abiotic environmental conditions. Besides, three biotic factors improved model performance in different El Niño events: negative density dependence in larval settlement, lower carrying capacity in the presence of other species and positive density dependence in adult survival. The results demonstrate how population models can be used to decode information hidden in long-term monitoring data of abiotic and biotic community parameters about factors driving population dynamics.     

Variation in a sparrow's reproductive success with rainfall: food and predator-mediated processes

From 1997 to 1999, we monitored the reproductive success of individual rufous-crowned sparrows (Aimophila ruficeps) in coastal sage scrub habitat of southern California, USA. Annual reproductive output of this ground-nesting species varied strongly with annual variation in rainfall, attributed to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Birds fledged 3.0 young per breeding pair in 1997, when rainfall was near the long-term mean, 5.1 offspring per pair in 1998, a wet El Niño year, and 0.8 fledglings per pair in 1999, a dry La Niña year. Variation in many components of reproductive output was consistent with the hypothesis that food availability was positively correlated with rainfall. However, the factor most responsible for the high reproductive output in 1998 was low early season nest predation which, combined with favorable nesting conditions, enabled more pairs to multiple-brood. Cool, rainy El Niño conditions may have altered the activity of snakes, the main predator of these nests, in the early season of 1998. Overall, more of the annual variation in fecundity was attributable to variation in within-season components of reproductive output (mean number of nests fledged per pair) than to within-nest components (mean brood size). Annual variation in rufous-crowned sparrow fecundity appears to be driven primarily by food resource-mediated processes in La Niña years and by predator-mediated processes in El Niño years.     

IMPROVED BODY CONDITION OF WEANED HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL PUPS ASSOCIATED WITH EL Niño EVENTS: POTENTIAL BENEFITS TO AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

Efforts to enhance recovery of endangered Hawaiian monk seals ( Monachus schauinslandi ) require an understanding of factors influencing population dynamics. This study examines relationships between body condition and survival of monk seal pups at French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island and El Niño events. Girth measurements and mass estimates were used as indicators of pup body condition, and survival was evaluated from weaning to age 2. Linear models and logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate El Niño effects. Temporal trends in mean girth, mass, and survival were identified at both study sites. After accounting for temporal trends, girths were 3.7 cm and 2.7 cm greater during El Niño years at French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island, respectively. Average mass estimates were significantly greater during El Niño years at French Frigate Shoals (2.6 kg increase), but were not significantly different at Laysan Island (1.8 kg increase). Weaned pups born at French Frigate Shoals during El Niño years survived significantly better, but this effect was not detected at Laysan Island. El Niño events probably affect pup condition and survival, but these parameters need to be monitored during future El Niño events to clarify these relationships.     

Effects of large-scale climatic fluctuations on survival and production of young in a Neotropical migrant songbird, the yellow warbler Dendroica petechia

Migrant songbirds are vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions on both the breeding and wintering grounds. For North American Neotropical migrants, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), via its effects on global precipitation and temperature, modulates the productivity of their temperate and tropical terrestrial ecosystems used during the course of their annual cycle. We evaluated how a densely nesting population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia in a riparian forest in southern Manitoba, Canada, responded to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1992 and 2001. Standardized mist netting was used to estimate apparent annual survival of adults and production of young. Both adult survival and the production of young were positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). More specifically, values of both these demographic parameters were lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña years. These findings demonstrate the influence of climate on populations of Neotropical migrants in North America. The more frequent El Niños predicted to result from future global climate change could negatively affect populations of yellow warblers and other Neotropical migrants breeding in this region.     

Seasonal, El Niño and longer term changes in flower and seed production in a moist tropical forest

It has recently been reported that humid tropical forests are changing rapidly in response to global anthropogenic change and that these forests experience greater tree mortality and even fire during droughts associated with El Niño events. The former reports are controversial largely because a single method has been used – repeated censuses of tree plots. The latter reports focus on recent extreme El Niño events. Here, we show that flower and seed production both increase during El Niño events in an old-growth tropical forest in Panama. Flower production, but not seed production, has also increased over the past 18 years. The sustained increase in flower production was greater for 33 liana species than for 48 tree species. These results indicate that moderate El Niño events favour seed production, document long-term increases in flower production for the first time, and corroborate long-term increases in the importance of lianas using independent methods. Changes in levels of solar irradiance might contribute to all three patterns.     

Mass Coral Reef Bleaching: A Recent Outcome of Increased El Niño Activity?

Coral reefs are generally considered to be the most biologically productive of all marine ecosystems, but in recent times these vulnerable aquatic resources have been subject to unusual degradation. The general decline in reefs has been greatly accelerated by mass bleaching in which corals whiten en masse and often fail to recover. Empirical evidence indicates a coral reef bleaching cycle in which major bleaching episodes are synchronized with El Niño events that occur every 3–4 years on average. By heating vast areas of the Pacific Ocean, and affecting the Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well, El Niño causes widespread damage to reefs largely because corals are very sensitive to temperature changes. However, mass bleaching events were rarely observed before the 1970s and their abrupt appearance two decades ago remains an enigma. Here we propose a new explanation for the sudden occurrence of mass bleaching and show that it may be a response to the relative increase in El Niño experienced over the last two decades.     

Impacts of Interannual Ocean Circulation Variability on Japanese Eel Larval Migration in the Western North Pacific Ocean

The Japanese eel larvae hatch near the West Mariana Ridge seamount chain and travel through the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the Kuroshio, and the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) region during their shoreward migration toward East Asia. The interannual variability of circulation over the subtropical and tropical regions of the western North Pacific Ocean is affected by the Philippines–Taiwan Oscillation (PTO). This study examines the effect of the PTO on the Japanese eel larval migration routes using a three-dimensional (3D) particle tracking method, including vertical and horizontal swimming behavior. The 3D circulation and hydrography used for particle tracking are from the ocean circulation reanalysis produced by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2 (JCOPE2). Our results demonstrate that bifurcation of the NEC and the strength and spatial variation of the Kuroshio affect the distribution and migration of eel larvae. During the positive phase of PTO, more virtual eels (“v-eels”) can enter the Kuroshio to reach the south coast of Japan and more v-eels reach the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait; the stronger and more offshore swing of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea leads to fewer eels entering the East China Sea and the onshore movement of the Kuroshio to the south of Japan brings the eels closer to the Japanese coast. Significant differences in eel migration routes and distributions regulated by ocean circulation in different PTO phases can also affect the otolith increment. The estimated otolith increment suggests that eel age tends to be underestimated after six months of simulation due to the cooler lower layer temperature. Underestimation is more significant in the positive PTO years due to the wide distribution in higher latitudes than in the negative PTO years.     

Spatiotemporal fire occurrence in Borneo over a period of 10 years

South-east Asia's tropical rainforests are experiencing the highest rate of deforestation worldwide and fire is one of the most important drivers of forest loss and subsequent carbon dioxide emissions. In this study, we analyzed all fire events in Borneo recorded by satellites over a period of 10 years. About 16.2 Mha, which corresponds to 21% of the land surface, have been affected by fire at least once and 6% more than one time. During El Niño conditions, which cause prolonged droughts in the region, the fire-affected area was on average three times larger than during normal weather conditions. Similarly, fires in forests affected 0.3 Mha in normal years and 1 Mha during El Niño years. Carbon rich peat swamp forest ecosystems were most severely affected. There is a pronounced difference in fire occurrence between different countries and provinces in Borneo although ecosystem and land use are very similar across the island. Compared with Sarawak, Sabah (Malaysia) and Brunei the relative annual fire-affected area in Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, was on average five times larger. During El Niño conditions the fire-affected area increased only in Kalimantan and not in Brunei and the Malaysia. A similar pattern was observed in National Parks. This suggests, that El Niño related droughts are not the only cause of increased fire occurrence and do not necessarily lead to a higher number of fire events. These results improve our understanding of existing fire regimes and drivers of fire in SE Asian tropical ecosystems and may help to better protect the remaining rainforests.     

VARIATION IN TOXIN PRODUCTION OF SYNCHRONIZED CULTURES OF CHRYSOCHROMULINA POLYLEPIS (PRYMNESIOPHYTA)

We studied spatial variability in giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests at 84 sites along the west coast of North America in order to assess the impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño. Our sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northern Hemisphere and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than one year after, and nearly two years after the El Niño. Interspersion of sample units allowed us to compare the effects of this disturbance among spatial scales ranging from a few meters to more than a thousand kilometers. Variance components analyses revealed that El Niño shifted the relative importance of factors that regulate giant kelp communities from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating at hundreds of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in a near-to-complete loss of giant kelp populations throughout nearly two-thirds of the species' range. Evaluation of these effects along with oceanographic data (at the "appropriate" spatial scales), along with closer examination of giant kelp populations in the most severely impacted region (Baja) suggested that the among-region differences in giant kelp survival was due, at least in part, to El Niño-induced differences in ocean climate. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was also scale-dependent, but driven by factors different from those of the disturbance. Here, we present results for several species of macroalgae in an attempt to relate the importance of El Niño to that of other processes in creating scale-dependent patterns of variability.     

CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF GRAY WHALES (ESCHRICHTIUS ROBUSTUS) IN MAGDALENA BAY, MEXICO DURING AN EL NIÑO EVENT

The oceanographic changes during the El Niño and La Niña of 1998–1999 have provided an opportunity to document the effects of these events on the migratory patterns of gray whales ( Eschrichtius robustus ). Magdalena Bay is located at the southernmost point of the gray whale's annual breeding migration along the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Standardized surveys were conducted for three consecutive seasons (1997–1999) in Magdalena Bay, enabling an assessment of the changes in the relative abundance of gray whales with altered temperature. The average temperature of the bay in 1998 was 4.2°C higher than in 1997 and 5.8°C higher than in 1999. The number of whale sightings during that time period was inversely related to temperature, with nearly 15 times greater relative abundance observed in 1999 than in 1998. It is hypochesized that the decreasing temperatures associated with the La Niña event of 1999 may have induced more whales to travel farther south along their migration route. Alternative hypotheses are also expiored. Comparisons of the three years are discussed with consideration of the importance of environmental conditions versus area fidelity as determining factors in the location of gray whale calving and breeding activities.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Larval dynamics of the sand crab, Emerita analoga, off the central Oregon coast during a strong El Nino period

Populations of the sand crab, Emerita analoga, are well establishedon the California coast. However, populations in Oregon occursporadically and appear to be restocked by larvae drifting northfrom California. Due to increased northward transport in winterduring El Niño events, we would expect that larval recruitmentto northern populations should be higher during these periods.This hypothesis was tested by comparing larval abundances betweennon-El Niño and El Niño years, 1997 and 1998,respectively. In 1997, larval abundances and seasonality weresimilar to historical data from 1969–71. First zoeal (Z1)stage larvae were present during these summers, but in low numbers,indicating that E.analoga spawned off the coast of Oregon. In1998, strong larval recruitment from the south occurred, demonstratedby a large number of fifth zoeal stage (Z5) larvae collectedoff Oregon in April and May. The large numbers of Z1 found insummer 1998 indicate that the Z5, which arrived from Californiaearlier that spring, successfully recruited to adulthood andreproduced. These data indicate that Oregon E.analoga populationsare probably dependent on larvae travelling from Californiain the Davidson Current. It follows that this species couldbe used as an indicator of coastal current fluctuations suchas those seen during El Niño events.     

127 Climate Variability and Phytoplankton Production in PNW Coast Estuaries

The west coast of North America receives strong forcing from climate modes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Estuaries are poised at a sensitive interface because estuarine biota and habitat will be affected by variability in properties and processes associated with the ocean, the watershed, and the local weather. Observations from the Washington coast and Willapa Bay illustrate these three arenas of influence. Variation in ocean upwelling and ocean thermocline depth associated with the 1997–98 El Niño versus the 1999 La Niña affected temperature and nutrient availability in Willapa Bay. Variation in river flow associated with the 2000–01 drought affected estuarine circulation and residence time. And, variation in prevailing wind direction and/or cloudiness was highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass. This situation is responsible for the complexity of understanding climate impacts on estuarine systems. In order to help evaluate which mechanisms, remote oceanic processes or local watershed/estuarine characteristics, most affected Willapa Bay's phytoplankton production, several phytoplankton species were used as indicators of water mass origin and compared with primary productivity data to assess whether phytoplankton blooms were dominated by endemic or imported species. Our analysis resolved that the highest primary production (and the appearance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) was associated with oceanic intrusions of phytoplankton biomass into Willapa Bay. This result underscores the dominant role that variation in ocean and climate play in controlling Pacific Northwest estuarine production. However, while the largest blooms were oceanic in origin, numerous medium-sized production events were from either oceanic or estuarine sources, indicating a complex picture.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

ENSO事件对中国森林火险天气的影响

ENSO事件影响中国的气候和森林火险天气,研究ENSO事件对中国各植被区火险天气的影响对于提高森林火险预报准确性有科学和实践意义。利用1951—2016年中国地面国际交换站气候资料的日值数据集(V3.0)数据计算每日的森林火险天气指数(FWI),根据MODIS过火区产品计算各植被区2001—2016年的森林过火面积,分别按事件情景(弱、中、强和超强厄尔尼诺事件以及弱、中和强拉尼娜事件)统计各植被区对应的火险期气温、降水、FWI和过火面积。结果表明: 1950—2016年,共发生19次厄尔尼诺事件和14次拉尼娜事件。受强或超强厄尔尼诺事件影响,西北地区春季火险期的日均最高气温明显升高,而中温带半干旱草原区春季火险期的日均最高气温在中厄尔尼诺年显著降低。厄尔尼诺年,南方和西南林区火险期的降水量一般会增加,中、低强度的拉尼娜事件会减少大部分区域的火险期降水量,但强拉尼娜事件导致大部分林区火险期的降水量增加。弱厄尔尼诺事件导致南方林区FWI降低;强或超强厄尔尼诺事件导致南方和西南林区的FWI有所降低,而北方林区的FWI有所升高。ENSO事件对各植被区FWI的影响存在显著的空间差异性。2001—2016年,当火险期的季节火险严重程度(SSR)显著变化时,暖温带湿润/半湿润地区落叶阔叶林区、中北亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区和热带南亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区的过火面积与SSR的变化一致,其他区域的过火面积受ENSO事件的影响不明显。     

Anguilla rostrata glass eel ingress into two, U.S. east coast estuaries: patterns, processes and implications for adult abundance

A time series of American eel Anguilla rostrata glass eel abundance, timing and size from Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey (16 years) and Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina (18 years) was used to provide a better understanding of ingress patterns at two, U.S. east coast estuaries. There was no evidence of synchronous declines in abundance between the two locations; however, at the Little Egg Inlet site, glass eels arrived later in the season and at significantly smaller sizes over the duration of the series. One significant linkage between sites was revealed: abundance was positively correlated with winter precipitation. Precipitation differed between sites annually and was correlated with El Niño at Beaufort Inlet and, to a lesser extent, the North Atlantic Oscillation at Little Egg Inlet. It is hypothesized that glass eels may use freshwater signals to enhance recruitment to local estuaries, thus influencing year-class strength, yet the relationship between year-class strength and adult abundance remains unresolved.     

Notes on the effects of E1 Niño on the seabirds of the Mollendo district, southwest Peru, in 1983

In the austral summer of 1982–83 the cool Peru Coastal Current Zone of the Pacific Coast of South America was affected by the strongest and most prolonged incursion of the warm El Niño Current in at least 58 years. An account is given of the visual effects of the disturbance on the seabirds of the Mollendo district on the coast of southwest Peru. With one exception, local numbers of the endemic cool water species were drastically reduced, with little evidence of recovery up to April 1984. During the period when El Niño was at its height, several warm water species of seabirds, previously either virtually or completely unknown at Mollendo, were recorded.