Climate change and marine life

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.     

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.     

Environmental response of upper trophic-level predators reveals a system change in an Antarctic marine ecosystem

Long-term changes in the physical environment in the Antarctic Peninsula region have significant potential for affecting populations of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a keystone food web species. In order to investigate this, we analysed data on krill-eating predators at South Georgia from 1980 to 2000. Indices of population size and reproductive performance showed declines in all species and an increase in the frequency of years of low reproductive output. Changes in the population structure of krill and its relationship with reproductive performance suggested that the biomass of krill within the largest size class was sufficient to support predator demand in the 1980s but not in the 1990s. We suggest that the effects of underlying changes in the system on the krill population structure have been amplified by predator-induced mortality, resulting in breeding predators now regularly operating close to the limit of krill availability. Understanding how krill demography is affected by changes in physical environmental factors and by predator consumption and how, in turn, this influences predator performance and survival, is one of the keys to predicting future change in Antarctic marine ecosystems.     

Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

Zooplankton biomass distribution patterns along the western Antarctic Peninsula (December 2002)

The phytoplankton [chlorophyll a (Chl a)], microzooplankton,mesozooplankton and macrozooplankton biomass and distributionwere studied as part of a multidisciplinary project (Tempano)along the Antarctic Peninsula during December 2002. Even thoughthe summer phytoplankton bloom was not yet developed in thearea, autotrophs dominated the plankton biomass. Phytoplanktonvertical distribution was, in general, homogeneous in the upper40–50 m of the water column, further decreasing with depth.Protozoans showed low biomass; their contribution to the totalplankton being one order of magnitude lower than that of autotrophs.The vertical distribution of protozoans was variable among stationswith marked peaks at depths ranging from 30 to 80 m. Mesozooplankton-integratedbiomass was generally low, although there was a notable increasesouthward near the ice marginal zone. Macrozooplankton distributionwas more variable without any clear zonal distribution pattern.The vertical distribution of meso- and macrozooplankton (>4mm) biomass showed clear peaks of abundance comprising differentspecies depending on the geographical area. Our biomass distributiondata suggest a food-web scenario in which macrozooplankton arepreying on mesozooplankton populations only in the northernerstations, and mesozooplankton are, in their turn, shaping theabundance of the emerging populations of microzooplankton. Phytoplankton,on the other hand, seem to be hardly controlled by grazing activity.     

Environmental information for a marine ecosystem research approach for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (RV Polarstern expedition PS81, ANT-XXIX/3)

During the austral summer expedition PS81, ANT-XXIX/3 with the German research ice breaker Polarstern in 2013, research was carried out to investigate the role of environmental factors on the distribution of benthic communities and marine mammal and krill densities around the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. For these studies collated in this special issue and studies in this area, we present a collection of environmental parameters with probable influence on the marine ecosystems around the Antarctic Peninsula.     

Egg and faecal pellet production rates of the marine copepod Metridia gerlachei northwest of the Antarctic Peninsula

Egg and faecal pellet production rates, and their functional response to food and temperature, were measured for the Antarctic copepod Metridia gerlachei during January 1996. The study area comprised the Gerlache and Bransfield Straits and Drake Passage. The highest rates of “in situ” egg and faecal pellet production were observed in Gerlache stations, coinciding with chlorophyll a concentrations approaching food saturation levels. In the Bransfield and Drake stations, with very low chlorophyll concentrations, the rates of egg production were either very low, or no eggs were produced. Egg production rates, although well correlated with “in situ” chlorophyll values, appeared to be independent of food concentration on a short time-scale (24-h incubations), while the production of faecal pellets was closely related to food abundance in the same experiments. In general, the rates of egg production were low, even at food saturation, with a very high individual variability. Although in the majority of Gerlache stations about 50% of total chlorophyll a corresponded to the phytoplankton size-fraction >10 μm, M. gerlachei feeds preferentially on the <10-μm fraction. Temperature had no clear effects on egg production rate but had a significant effect on pellet production rates, with maximum values at 2.5°C. These features appear to agree with the reproductive strategy attributed to the species, based on a relatively low rate of egg production extended over a long reproductive period. Received: 18 November 1996 / Accepted: 24 March 1997     

Population trends and reproductive success at a frequently visited penguin colony on the western Antarctic Peninsula

Petermann Island (65°10′S, 64°10′W), one of the Antarctic Peninsula’s most frequently visited locations, is at the epicenter of a rapid shift in which an Adélie penguin dominated fauna is becoming gentoo penguin dominated. Over the course of five seasons, the breeding productivity of Adélie and gentoo penguins breeding at Petermann Island were monitored to identify drivers of this rapid community change. The impact of tourist visitation on breeding success was also investigated. Consistent with larger trends in this region, the Adélie penguin population decreased by 29% and the gentoo penguin population increased by 27% between the 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 seasons. Reproductive success among Adélie penguins ranged from 1.09 to 1.32 crèched chicks/nest, which was higher than or comparable to other sites and is an unlikely explanation for the precipitous decline of Adélie penguins at Petermann Island. Whereas gentoo penguin reproductive success was lowest in colonies frequently visited by tourists, Adélie penguin colonies frequently visited by tourists had higher reproductive success than those visited only occasionally. These results are placed in the context of other studies on reproductive success and the impact of tourist visitation on breeding colonies of Adélie and gentoo penguins.     

Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula

Many studies in recent years have demonstrated long‐term temporal trends in biological parameters that can only be explained by climate change. Bird phenology has received great attention, as it studies one of the most conspicuous, popular, and easily observable phenomena in nature. There are many studies of long‐term changes in spring arrival dates, most of which concur with earlier records from the last few decades. However, few data are available for autumn departures or length of stays. Furthermore, existing data offer an equivocal picture. In this study, we analysed a huge database of about 44 000 records for five trans‐Saharan bird species (Ciconia ciconia, Cuculus canorus, Apus apus, Hirundo rustica and Luscinia megarhynchos). Data were collected from over 1300 sites around Spain during the period 1944–2004. Common spring arrival patterns were found in all species. Spring arrival dates have tended to advance since the mid‐1970s. Current dates are similar to those from the 1940s (except for C. ciconia). Thus, the advance of spring migration over the last three decades could be seen as a return to the initial timing of arrival dates, after abnormally delayed arrivals during the 1970s. A strong negative relationship with temperature in Spain at arrival time was observed in all species. A negative relationship with the Sahel Index (a measurement of precipitation in the African Sahel area during the rainy season) for the previous year was also found in C. canorus, A. apus and H. rustica. Regarding autumn departures, all species showed common interdecadal fluctuations, but only H. rustica is leaving earlier Spain at present. All species departed earlier in years that had higher temperatures during their reproductive period. However, only for H. rustica the relation between Spanish temperatures at departure time and the last sightings of individuals was significant. A heterogeneous temporal response for the length of stay was also found: C. ciconia increased, A. apus did not change and H. rustica decreased its stay. This is the first study, based on an extensive bird phenology observational network covering a large region, that shows the most complete and thorough analysis available for the Mediterranean region.     

Overview of the chemical ecology of benthic marine invertebrates along the western Antarctic peninsula

Thirteen years ago in a review that appeared in the American Zoologist, we presented the first survey of the chemical and ecological bioactivity of Antarctic shallow-water marine invertebrates. In essence, we reported that despite theoretical predictions to the contrary the incidence of chemical defenses among sessile and sluggish Antarctic marine invertebrates was widespread. Since that time we and others have significantly expanded upon the base of knowledge of Antarctic marine invertebrates' chemical ecology, both from the perspective of examining marine invertebrates in new, distinct geographic provinces, as well as broadening the evaluation of the ecological significance of secondary metabolites. Importantly, many of these studies have been framed within established theoretical constructs, particularly the Optimal Defense Theory. In the present article, we review the current knowledge of chemical ecology of benthic marine invertebrates comprising communities along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), a region of Antarctica that is both physically and biologically distinct from the rest of the continent. Our overview indicates that, similar to other regions of Antarctica, anti-predator chemical defenses are widespread among species occurring along the WAP. In some groups, such as the sponges, the incidence of chemical defenses against predation is comparable to, or even slightly higher than, that found in tropical marine systems. While there is substantial knowledge of the chemical defenses of benthic marine invertebrates against predators, much less is known about chemical anti-foulants. The sole survey conducted to date suggests that secondary metabolites in benthic sponges are likely to be important in the prevention of fouling by benthic diatoms, yet generally lack activity against marine bacteria. Our understanding of the sensory ecology of Antarctic benthic marine invertebrates, despite its great potential, remains in its infancy. For example, along the WAP, community-level non-consumptive effects occur when amphipods chemically sense fish predators and respond by seeking refuge in chemically-defended macroalgae. Such interactions may be important in releasing amphipods from predation pressure and facilitating their unusually high abundances along the WAP. Moreover, recent studies on the sensory biology of the Antarctic keystone sea star Odontaster validus indicate that chemotactile-mediated interactions between conspecifics and other sympatric predatory sea stars may have significant ramifications in structuring community dynamics. Finally, from a global environmental perspective, understanding how chemical ecology structures marine benthic communities along the WAP must increasingly be viewed in the context of the dramatic impacts of rapid climatic change now occurring in this biogeographic region.     

Climate change alters seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem

Background

Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO₂ regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species.

Conclusions

The observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors of seedling emergence and establishment in ecosystems under global change.     

California Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) and marine ecosystem dynamics

Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems with physical and biological processes operating on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present an operational regional indicator for California's continental shelf system and investigate its skill in predicting a variety of biological responses across trophic levels. This updated Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) version 2 includes data that are readily available from the Internet so the indicator can be automatically updated and shared regularly. MOCIv.2 is a simplified version of MOCIv.1, but it captures ocean-climate variability similarly. MOCIv.2 illustrates all major ENSO events that occurred over the past 25 years as well as the phasing and magnitude of the most recent North Pacific marine heat wave, dubbed ‘The Blob’. It also shows differences in the magnitude and timing of ocean-climate variability in different regions off California. MOCIv.2 has skill in nowcasting marine ecosystem dynamics, from zooplankton to top predators, and therefore may be useful in establishing bio-physical relationships important to ecosystem-based fisheries and wildlife management in California.     

Antarctic hairgrass expansion in the South Shetland archipelago and Antarctic Peninsula revisited

Populations of both native higher Antarctic plants, Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis, increased during the last decades. However, for D. antarctica, previous population studies on the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula have been too sporadic, patchy, and methodologically different to allow general conclusions. Our aim was to compare sites with D. antarctica along a north–south latitudinal transect with an integral census method to assess the possible impact of climatic change on grass population dynamics. During two summer seasons (2009–2010), plant populations were censed on Fildes and Coppermine Peninsula and several localities on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Largest plant populations were found on Fildes Peninsula with vegetation cover (VC) of 44–46%. Six out of eleven stands of D. antarctica on Coppermine Peninsula were new records, with increasing plant number and VC (0.1–22%). In the Antarctic Peninsula, contrarily to our expectation, only at Forbes Point, D. antarctica VC was relatively high (ca. 2%) and a new stand of C. quitensis was found. At three previously reported sites, plants had disappeared. Our monitoring confirms that northern D. antarctica populations are expanding, but that this expansion is not continuous along the Antarctic Peninsula and inconsistent with the gradient of relative temperature increase in north–south direction. We suggest that other abiotic and biotic factors are influencing the colonization and expansion of vascular plants in this particular ecosystem.     

Patterns of gammaridean amphipod abundance and species composition associated with dominant subtidal macroalgae from the western Antarctic Peninsula

The communities of gammaridean amphipods associated with eight dominant macroalgal species were examined near Palmer Station, Western Antarctic Peninsula. A total of 78,415 individuals belonging to 32 amphipod taxa were identified with mean densities ranging up to 20 individuals/g algal wet wt. The most abundant amphipod taxon, Metaleptamphopus pectinatus, was found to associate predominately with the brown alga Desmarestia menziesii, while the second most common taxon, Jassa spp. occurred primarily on the red alga Gigartina skottsbergii. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis demonstrated that the population densities of each amphipod species and amphipod species composition were similar on the same algal species but dissimilar on different species of algae. Comparisons of amphipod communities associated with a given algal species but from different sampling sites indicated that although the structure of species-specific macroalgal-associated amphipod communities can vary across spatial scales of 3 km, 50% of the macroalgal species examined showed no significant inter-site differences in associated amphipod community structure. Spearman rank correlation analyses showed that higher abundances of amphipods occurred on the macroalgae with the highest number of branches. As many Antarctic amphipods are known consumers of macroalgae, their remarkable abundances are likely to play a significant role in mediating energy and nutrient transfer in nearshore Antarctic Peninsular macroalgal communities.     

Modelling marine ecosystem response to climate change and trawling in the North Sea

The marine ecosystem response to climate change and demersal trawling was investigated using the coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical water column model GOTM-ERSEM-BFM for three contrasting sites in the North Sea. Climate change forcing was derived from the HadRM3-PPE-UK regional climate model for the UK for the period 1950–2100 using historical emissions and a medium emissions scenario (SRESA1B). Effects of demersal trawling were implemented as an additional mortality on benthic fauna, and changes in the benthic–pelagic nutrient and carbon fluxes. The main impacts of climate change were (i) a temperature-driven increase in pelagic metabolic rates and nutrient cycling, (ii) an increase in primary production fuelled by recycled nutrients, (iii) a decrease in benthic biomass due to increased benthic metabolic rates and decreased food supply as a result of the increased pelagic cycling, and (iv) a decrease in near-bed oxygen concentrations. The main impacts of trawling were (i) reduced benthic biomass due to the increased mortality, and (ii) the increased benthic–pelagic nutrient fluxes, with these effects counteracting each other, and relatively small changes in other variables. One important consequence was a large decrease in the de-nitrification flux predicted at the two summer-stratified sites because less benthic nitrate was available. The effects of trawling scaled linearly with fishing effort, with greatest sensitivity to fishing in summer compared to fishing in winter. The impacts of climate change and trawling were additive, suggesting little or no non-linear interactions between these disturbances.