Marine pelagic ecosystems: the west Antarctic Peninsula

The marine ecosystem of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) extends from the Bellingshausen Sea to the northern tip of the peninsula and from the mostly glaciated coast across the continental shelf to the shelf break in the west. The glacially sculpted coastline along the peninsula is highly convoluted and characterized by deep embayments that are often interconnected by channels that facilitate transport of heat and nutrients into the shelf domain. The ecosystem is divided into three subregions, the continental slope, shelf and coastal regions, each with unique ocean dynamics, water mass and biological distributions. The WAP shelf lies within the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and like other SIZs, the WAP system is very productive, supporting large stocks of marine mammals, birds and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba. Ecosystem dynamics is dominated by the seasonal and interannual variation in sea ice extent and retreat. The Antarctic Peninsula is one among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, having experienced a 2 degrees C increase in the annual mean temperature and a 6 degrees C rise in the mean winter temperature since 1950. Delivery of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has increased significantly in the past decade, sufficient to drive to a 0.6 degrees C warming of the upper 300 m of shelf water. In the past 50 years and continuing in the twenty-first century, the warm, moist maritime climate of the northern WAP has been migrating south, displacing the once dominant cold, dry continental Antarctic climate and causing multi-level responses in the marine ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the regional warming include increased heat transport, decreased sea ice extent and duration, local declines in icedependent Adélie penguins, increase in ice-tolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins, alterations in phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition and changes in krill recruitment, abundance and availability to predators. The climate/ecological gradients extending along the WAP and the presence of monitoring systems, field stations and long-term research programmes make the region an invaluable observatory of climate change and marine ecosystem response.     

The timing of sea ice formation and exposure to photosynthetically active radiation along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Understanding the flow of solar energy into ecosystems is fundamental to understanding ecosystem productivity and dynamics. To gain a better understanding of this fundamental process in the Antarctic winter sea ice, we produced a model that estimates the time-integrated exposure of seasonal Antarctic sea ice to PAR through the use of remotely sensed sea ice concentrations, sea ice movement and spatially distributed PAR calculations that account for cloud cover and have applied this model over the past three decades. The resulting spatially distributed estimates of sea ice exposure to PAR by mid-winter are evaluated in context of changes in the timing of sea ice formation that have been documented along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region and its potential effects on the variation (seasonal and inter-annual) in the accumulation of sea ice algae in this region. The analysis shows the ice pack is likely to have large inter-annual variations (10–100 fold) in productivity throughout the autumn to winter transition in the sea ice along the WAP. Moreover, the pack ice is likely to have spatial structure in regards to biological processes that cannot be determined from analysis of sea ice concentration information alone. The resulting inter-annual variations in winter processes are likely to affect the dynamics of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba).     

Likely responses of the Antarctic benthos to climate-related changes in physical disturbance during the 21st century, based primarily on evidence from the West Antarctic Peninsula region

Disturbance has always shaped the evolution and ecology of organisms and nowhere is this more apparent that on the iceberg gouged continental shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). The vast majority of currently described polar biodiversity occurs on the Southern Ocean shelf but current and projected climate change is rapidly altering disturbance intensities in some regions. The AP is now amongst the fastest warming and changing regions on earth. Seasonal sea ice has decreased in time and extent, most glaciers in the region have retreated, a number of ice shelves have collapsed, and the surface waters of the seas west of the AP have warmed. Here, we review the influences of disturbance from ice, sedimentation, freshening events, wave action and humans on shallow water benthic assemblages, and suggest how disturbance pressures will change during the 21st century in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) and Scotia Arc region. We suggest that the intensity of ice scouring will increase in the region over the next few decades as a result of decreased winter sea ice periods and increased ice loading into coastal waters. Thus, the most frequently disturbed environment on earth will become more so, which will lead to considerable changes in community structure and species distributions. However, as ice fronts retreat past their respective grounding lines, sedimentation and freshening events will become relatively more important. Human presence in the region is increasing, through research, tourism, and resource exploitation, which represents a considerable threat to polar biodiversity over the next century. Adapting to or tolerating multiple, changing environmental stressors will be difficult for a fauna with typically slow generation turnovers that has evolved largely in isolation. We suggest that intensifying acute and chronic disturbances are likely to cause significant changes in ecosystem structure, and probably a considerable loss of polar marine biodiversity, over relatively short timescales.     

Nord‐ und Südpolarmeer im Klimawandel. Ein biologischer Vergleich

Impacts of climate change on polar seas The polar seas in the Arctic and Antarctic are characterized by extreme cold and the prevalence of sea ice, which provides a unique polar habitat but also strongly affects the pelagic and benthic biota beneath. Life conditions for the marine fauna and flora differ considerably between the Arctic and Southern Oceans, as a result of contrasts in geography, geological history, as well as seasonal dynamics in light regime, sea ice cover and, hence, biological production. Climate change is particularly obvious in the Arctic Ocean and off the Antarctic Peninsula where warming results in a rapid shrinkage of the summer sea ice cover. Such decline threatens the sea‐ice communities and their associated fauna and will also have far reaching effects for the plankton and benthos of the polar seas.     

Overview of the chemical ecology of benthic marine invertebrates along the western Antarctic peninsula

Thirteen years ago in a review that appeared in the American Zoologist, we presented the first survey of the chemical and ecological bioactivity of Antarctic shallow-water marine invertebrates. In essence, we reported that despite theoretical predictions to the contrary the incidence of chemical defenses among sessile and sluggish Antarctic marine invertebrates was widespread. Since that time we and others have significantly expanded upon the base of knowledge of Antarctic marine invertebrates' chemical ecology, both from the perspective of examining marine invertebrates in new, distinct geographic provinces, as well as broadening the evaluation of the ecological significance of secondary metabolites. Importantly, many of these studies have been framed within established theoretical constructs, particularly the Optimal Defense Theory. In the present article, we review the current knowledge of chemical ecology of benthic marine invertebrates comprising communities along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), a region of Antarctica that is both physically and biologically distinct from the rest of the continent. Our overview indicates that, similar to other regions of Antarctica, anti-predator chemical defenses are widespread among species occurring along the WAP. In some groups, such as the sponges, the incidence of chemical defenses against predation is comparable to, or even slightly higher than, that found in tropical marine systems. While there is substantial knowledge of the chemical defenses of benthic marine invertebrates against predators, much less is known about chemical anti-foulants. The sole survey conducted to date suggests that secondary metabolites in benthic sponges are likely to be important in the prevention of fouling by benthic diatoms, yet generally lack activity against marine bacteria. Our understanding of the sensory ecology of Antarctic benthic marine invertebrates, despite its great potential, remains in its infancy. For example, along the WAP, community-level non-consumptive effects occur when amphipods chemically sense fish predators and respond by seeking refuge in chemically-defended macroalgae. Such interactions may be important in releasing amphipods from predation pressure and facilitating their unusually high abundances along the WAP. Moreover, recent studies on the sensory biology of the Antarctic keystone sea star Odontaster validus indicate that chemotactile-mediated interactions between conspecifics and other sympatric predatory sea stars may have significant ramifications in structuring community dynamics. Finally, from a global environmental perspective, understanding how chemical ecology structures marine benthic communities along the WAP must increasingly be viewed in the context of the dramatic impacts of rapid climatic change now occurring in this biogeographic region.     

北极浮冰生态学研究进展

近年来随着北极地区的开放和全球变化对北极地区生态环境和海冰现存量的影响日益显现,北极浮冰生态学研究得到了广泛的重视和实质性的进展.最新研究结果显示,浮冰本身包含了一个复杂的生物群落,高纬度浮冰生物群落的初级产量远高于原先的估算,浮冰生物群落在北极海洋生态系统中的作用被进一步确认.但由于对浮冰生物群落的研究受后勤保障条件的制约,目前尚有大量科学问题有待今后进一步深入研究,预期我国科学家将在其中做出贡献.     

Spatial and temporal operation of the Scotia Sea ecosystem: a review of large-scale links in a krill centred food web

The Scotia Sea ecosystem is a major component of the circumpolar Southern Ocean system, where productivity and predator demand for prey are high. The eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and waters from the Weddell-Scotia Confluence dominate the physics of the Scotia Sea, leading to a strong advective flow, intense eddy activity and mixing. There is also strong seasonality, manifest by the changing irradiance and sea ice cover, which leads to shorter summers in the south. Summer phytoplankton blooms, which at times can cover an area of more than 0.5 million km2, probably result from the mixing of micronutrients into surface waters through the flow of the ACC over the Scotia Arc. This production is consumed by a range of species including Antarctic krill, which are the major prey item of large seabird and marine mammal populations. The flow of the ACC is steered north by the Scotia Arc, pushing polar water to lower latitudes, carrying with it krill during spring and summer, which subsidize food webs around South Georgia and the northern Scotia Arc. There is also marked interannual variability in winter sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures that is linked to southern hemisphere-scale climate processes such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. This variation affects regional primary and secondary production and influences biogeochemical cycles. It also affects krill population dynamics and dispersal, which in turn impacts higher trophic level predator foraging, breeding performance and population dynamics. The ecosystem has also been highly perturbed as a result of harvesting over the last two centuries and significant ecological changes have also occurred in response to rapid regional warming during the second half of the twentieth century. This combination of historical perturbation and rapid regional change highlights that the Scotia Sea ecosystem is likely to show significant change over the next two to three decades, which may result in major ecological shifts.     

The association of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with the under-ice habitat

The association of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with the under-ice habitat was investigated in the Lazarev Sea (Southern Ocean) during austral summer, autumn and winter. Data were obtained using novel Surface and Under Ice Trawls (SUIT), which sampled the 0-2 m surface layer both under sea ice and in open water. Average surface layer densities ranged between 0.8 individuals m(-2) in summer and autumn, and 2.7 individuals m(-2) in winter. In summer, under-ice densities of Antarctic krill were significantly higher than in open waters. In autumn, the opposite pattern was observed. Under winter sea ice, densities were often low, but repeatedly far exceeded summer and autumn maxima. Statistical models showed that during summer high densities of Antarctic krill in the 0-2 m layer were associated with high ice coverage and shallow mixed layer depths, among other factors. In autumn and winter, density was related to hydrographical parameters. Average under-ice densities from the 0-2 m layer were higher than corresponding values from the 0-200 m layer collected with Rectangular Midwater Trawls (RMT) in summer. In winter, under-ice densities far surpassed maximum 0-200 m densities on several occasions. This indicates that the importance of the ice-water interface layer may be under-estimated by the pelagic nets and sonars commonly used to estimate the population size of Antarctic krill for management purposes, due to their limited ability to sample this habitat. Our results provide evidence for an almost year-round association of Antarctic krill with the under-ice habitat, hundreds of kilometres into the ice-covered area of the Lazarev Sea. Local concentrations of postlarval Antarctic krill under winter sea ice suggest that sea ice biota are important for their winter survival. These findings emphasise the susceptibility of an ecological key species to changing sea ice habitats, suggesting potential ramifications on Antarctic ecosystems induced by climate change.     

Important marine habitat off east Antarctica revealed by two decades of multi‐species predator tracking

Satellite telemetry data are a key source of animal distribution information for marine ecosystem management and conservation activities. We used two decades of telemetry data from the East Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean. Habitat utilization models for the spring/summer period were developed for six highly abundant, wide‐ranging meso‐ and top‐predator species: Adélie Pygoscelis adeliae and emperor Aptenodytes forsteri penguins, light‐mantled albatross Phoebetria palpebrata, Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, and Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddellii. The regional predictions from these models were combined to identify areas utilized by multiple species, and therefore likely to be of particular ecological significance. These areas were distributed across the longitudinal breadth of the East Antarctic sector, and were characterized by proximity to breeding colonies, both on the Antarctic continent and on subantarctic islands to the north, and by sea‐ice dynamics, particularly locations of winter polynyas. These areas of important habitat were also congruent with many of the areas reported to be showing the strongest regional trends in sea ice seasonality. The results emphasize the importance of on‐shore and sea‐ice processes to Antarctic marine ecosystems. Our study provides ocean‐basin‐scale predictions of predator habitat utilization, an assessment of contemporary habitat use against which future changes can be assessed, and is of direct relevance to current conservation planning and spatial management efforts.     

Pinguine – Überlebenskünstler in der Antarktis. Klimawandel

The future of penguin population development in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (= WAP) is largely depending on ecological factors like food availability (mostly krill) due to primary production of algae which itself depends on sea ice conditions, water‐ and air temperature and salinity. The extraordinary rise in temperature in the WAP area seems to cause a change in population numbers of Adelie and Gentoo Penguins: Adelies are declining in the north and Gentoos were occupying these sites instead. Gentoos have already reached the southern polar circle. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long‐term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. There is a lack of available information for penguin populations breeding possibly more south in the WAP area. We still have large gaps in our present knowledge in Adelies and Emperor Penguins southernmost breeding distribution.     

Effects of hydrographic variability on the spatial, seasonal and diel diving patterns of southern elephant seals in the eastern Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea hydrography and circulation is driven by influx of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at its eastern margin. Entrainment and upwelling of this high-nutrient, oxygen-depleted water mass within the Weddell Gyre also supports the mesopelagic ecosystem within the gyre and the rich benthic community along the Antarctic shelf. We used Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Satellite Relay Data Loggers (CTD-SRDLs) to examine the importance of hydrographic variability, ice cover and season on the movements and diving behavior of southern elephant seals in the eastern Weddell Sea region during their overwinter feeding trips from Bouvetøya. We developed a model describing diving depth as a function of local time of day to account for diel variation in diving behavior. Seals feeding in pelagic ice-free waters during the summer months displayed clear diel variation, with daytime dives reaching 500-1500 m and night-time targeting of the subsurface temperature and salinity maxima characteristic of CDW around 150–300 meters. This pattern was especially clear in the Weddell Cold and Warm Regimes within the gyre, occurred in the ACC, but was absent at the Dronning Maud Land shelf region where seals fed benthically. Diel variation was almost absent in pelagic feeding areas covered by winter sea ice, where seals targeted deep layers around 500–700 meters. Thus, elephant seals appear to switch between feeding strategies when moving between oceanic regimes or in response to seasonal environmental conditions. While they are on the shelf, they exploit the locally-rich benthic ecosystem, while diel patterns in pelagic waters in summer are probably a response to strong vertical migration patterns within the copepod-based pelagic food web. Behavioral flexibility that permits such switching between different feeding strategies may have important consequences regarding the potential for southern elephant seals to adapt to variability or systematic changes in their environment resulting from climate change.     

Antarctic Sea Ice Biota

The sea ice surrounding Antarctica provides an extensive habitatfor organisms ranging in size from bacteria to marine birdsand mammals. Historically, most of the ecological work on theice biota has focused in the nearshore land-fast ice. Only inthe last decade have there been comparable studies in the deep-waterpack ice regions. These studies have indicated that there arefundamental differences in structural and physical characteristicsof fast and pack ice thatare a result of differing physicalregimes in nearshore and oceanic regions. Other physical processesact to create heterogeneity within the ice habitat that canrange from geographic and regional scales of patchiness to apronounced vertical gradient within ice floes. The conspicuouspatternsin the distribution of the ice biota can be explained largelyby these physical processes. Over 200 species have been reported living on, in, or in associationwith Antarctic sea ice.The ice biota includes bacteria, a varietyof algae, heterotrophic protozoans and small metazoans. Thediatom assemblages are the only taxonomic group that is knownwell enough to make comparisons among the various habitats.Studies by a number of workers suggest some specific diatomassemblages along with occurrence of species that are widelydistributedin both ice and plankton. Ice may also serve as a temporaryhabitat for species that also comprise planktonic communities,so that providing a "seed population" for ice edge planktonblooms may be an important role of the ice biota. Trophic interactionsamong organisms in ice suggest that the ice assemblage is atrue community with a welldeveloped microbial food web. Theice microbial community may be an important part of the Antarcticmarine food web because large consumers from the adjacent planktonicand benthic communities appear to feed on the ice biota.     

Environmental determinants of top predator distribution within the dynamic winter pack ice zone of the northern Antarctic Peninsula

Global warming is predicted to reduce the amount of sea ice concentration in polar environments, thus presenting profound changes for populations of seabirds and marine mammals dependent on sea ice. Using data from a shipboard survey during August 2012, I test the hypothesis that relative abundance of seabird and marine mammals reflects environmental variability associated with the dynamic pack ice zone. Using environmental data and observations of sea ice concentration, I quantified an environmental gradient that describes the spatial organization of the dynamic pack ice zone. The relationship of top predators to this environmental gradient revealed three important aspects: (1) an open water and pack ice community is present with some top predator species exhibiting higher abundance associated with moderate sea ice concentration (40–60 %) as opposed to the pack ice edge (10 %), (2) Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) were the most abundant pinniped and they were observed resting on ice floes and foraging within leads and polynyas, and (3) for the most abundant species, spatial regression models indicate that latitude and sea ice concentration (a principal north/south gradient) are the most important environmental determinants. Winter ocean conditions may strongly influence population dynamics of top predators; therefore, information regarding their habitat use during winter is needed for understanding ecosystem dynamics.     

Recurrent seascape units identify key ecological processes along the western Antarctic Peninsula

The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a bellwether of global climate change and natural laboratory for identifying interactions between climate and ecosystems. The Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) project has collected data on key ecological and environmental processes along the WAP since 1993. To better understand how key ecological parameters are changing across space and time, we developed a novel seascape classification approach based on in situ temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, nitrate + nitrite, phosphate, and silicate. We anticipate that this approach will be broadly applicable to other geographical areas. Through the application of self‐organizing maps (SOMs), we identified eight recurrent seascape units (SUs) in these data. These SUs have strong fidelity to known regional water masses but with an additional layer of biogeochemical detail, allowing us to identify multiple distinct nutrient profiles in several water masses. To identify the temporal and spatial distribution of these SUs, we mapped them across the Palmer LTER sampling grid via objective mapping of the original parameters. Analysis of the abundance and distribution of SUs since 1993 suggests two year types characterized by the partitioning of chlorophyll a into SUs with different spatial characteristics. By developing generalized linear models for correlated, time‐lagged external drivers, we conclude that early spring sea ice conditions exert a strong influence on the distribution of chlorophyll a and nutrients along the WAP, but not necessarily the total chlorophyll a inventory. Because the distribution and density of phytoplankton biomass can have an impact on biomass transfer to the upper trophic levels, these results highlight anticipated links between the WAP marine ecosystem and climate.     

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.     

The overwintering strategy of Antarctic krill under the pack-ice of the Weddell Sea

Summary Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba Dana) occurs in enormous swarms in Antarctic waters during the ice-free summer months. The winter whereabouts of this stock were hitherto unknown. Evidence collected during the Winter Weddell Sea Project 1986 (WWSP'86, G. Hempel 1988) covering a large area of the eastern and southern Weddell Sea indicates that the seasonal sea ice cover sustains the bulk of the krill population. Results presented here, show that known aspects of krill morphology and behavior are actually adaptations to the ice habitat, suggesting that the dominance of krill in the Antarctic marine ecosystem is a result of its capacity to grow and reproduce in the water column in summer, and find both food and shelter in the ice cover during the rest of the year. This conclusion has far-reaching implications for our understanding of Southern Ocean biology and ecology.     

Seasonal time bombs: dominant temperate viruses affect Southern Ocean microbial dynamics

Rapid warming in the highly productive western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region of the Southern Ocean has affected multiple trophic levels, yet viral influences on microbial processes and ecosystem function remain understudied in the Southern Ocean. Here we use cultivation-independent quantitative ecological and metagenomic assays, combined with new comparative bioinformatic techniques, to investigate double-stranded DNA viruses during the WAP spring–summer transition. This study demonstrates that (i) temperate viruses dominate this region, switching from lysogeny to lytic replication as bacterial production increases, and (ii) Southern Ocean viral assemblages are genetically distinct from lower-latitude assemblages, primarily driven by this temperate viral dominance. This new information suggests fundamentally different virus–host interactions in polar environments, where intense seasonal changes in bacterial production select for temperate viruses because of increased fitness imparted by the ability to switch replication strategies in response to resource availability. Further, temperate viral dominance may provide mechanisms (for example, bacterial mortality resulting from prophage induction) that help explain observed temporal delays between, and lower ratios of, bacterial and primary production in polar versus lower-latitude marine ecosystems. Together these results suggest that temperate virus–host interactions are critical to predicting changes in microbial dynamics brought on by warming in polar marine systems.     

Behavioral and Physiological Characteristics of the Antarctic Krill, Euphausia superba

The antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is considered a successin the intensely seasonal environment of the Southern Oceanbecause of its abundance and central role as an important fooditem for many of the larger carnivores in the ecosystem. Thebehavioral and physiological characteristics that foster thissuccess are: (1) the ability to find concentrations of foodin several types of habitat and efficiently exploit whateverfood is available; (2) the close correspondence of the lifecycle with seasonal cycles of food availability; and (3) a combinationof physiological mechanisms that enable krill to survive thelong winter period of low food availability. We evaluated therelative importance of the following four major winter-overmechanisms that have been proposed for adult krill west of theAntarctic Peninsula. The three-fold reduction in metabolic rateis the most important winter-over mechanism for these adults,although lipid utilization and shrinkage also help satisfy energyrequirements in the winter. Alternate food sources did not appearto contribute significantly as a winter energy source. However,the extent, predictability and complexity of the ice cover ina region during winter may have a great influence on the relativeimportance of these winter-over mechanisms for different populations.Ice cover in the waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula is unpredictableand smooth surfaced when it occurs, providing the krill withlittle refuge from predation. In multi-year pack ice of theWeddell Sea, however, ice cover is predictable and extensive,and there is a complex undersurface that provides hiding places.In this multi-year ice, adult krill have been observed underthe ice feeding, whereas west of the Antarctic Peninsula mostadult krill are in the water column in the winter and are notfeeding. The balance between acquiring energy and avoiding predationmay be different in these two regions in the winter becauseof differences in predictability and complexity of the ice cover.     

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub‐Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co‐variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub‐Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer‐term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (?1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long‐term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.     

Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields.