Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.     

Two stochastic processes shape diverse senescence patterns in a single‐cell organism

Despite advances in aging research, a multitude of aging models, and empirical evidence for diverse senescence patterns, understanding of the biological processes that shape senescence is lacking. We show that senescence of an isogenic Escherichia coli bacterial population results from two stochastic processes. The first process is a random deterioration process within the cell, such as generated by random accumulation of damage. This primary process leads to an exponential increase in mortality early in life followed by a late age mortality plateau. The second process relates to the stochastic asymmetric transmission at cell fission of an unknown factor that influences mortality. This secondary process explains the difference between the classical mortality plateaus detected for young mothers’ offspring and the near nonsenescence of old mothers’ offspring as well as the lack of a mother–offspring correlation in age at death. We observed that lifespan is predominantly determined by underlying stochastic stage dynamics. Surprisingly, our findings support models developed for metazoans that base their arguments on stage‐specific actions of alleles to understand the evolution of senescence. We call for exploration of similar stochastic influences that shape aging patterns beyond simple organisms.     

Aging mechanisms in fruit flies

Genetic analysis of Drosophil has provided evidence in support of two proposed evolutionary genetic mechanisms of aging: mutation accumulation and antagonistic pleiotropy. Both mechanisms result from the lack of natural selection acting on old organisms. Analyses of large numbers of flies have revealed that mortality rates do not continue to rise with age as previously thought, but plateau at advanced ages. This phenomenon has implications both for models and for definitions of aging, and may be explained by the evolutionary theories. The physiological processes and genes most relevant to aging are being identified using Drosophila lines selected in the laboratory for postponed senescence. Oxidative stress and insufficient metabolic reserves/capacity may be particularly important factors in limiting the fruitfly lifespan. Genes which exhibit aging-related changes in expression are now being identified. Transgenic flies are being used to analyze the mechanisms of such aging-related gene expression, and to test the effects of specific genes on aging and aging-related deterioration.     

Biodemographic analysis of male honey bee mortality

Biodemographic studies of insects have significantly enhanced our understanding of the biology of aging. Eusocial insects have evolved to form different groups of colony members that are specialized for particular tasks and highly dependent on each other. These different groups (castes and sexes) also differ strongly in their life expectancy but relatively little is known about their mortality dynamics. In this study we present data on the age-specific flight activity and mortality of male honey bees from two different genetic lines that are exclusively dedicated to reproduction. We show that males initiating flight at a young age experience more flight events during their lifetime. No (negative) relation between the age at flight initiation and lifespan exists, as might be predicted on the basis of the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of aging. Furthermore, we fit our data to different aging models and conclude that overall a slight deceleration of the age-dependent mortality increase at advanced ages occurs. However, mortality risk increases according to the Gompertz-Makeham model when only days with flight activity (active days) are taken into account. Our interpretation of the latter is that two mortality components act on honey bee males during flight: increasing, age-dependent deaths (possibly from wear-and-tear), and age-independent deaths (possibly due to predation). The overall mortality curve is caused by the interaction of the distribution of age at foraging initiation and the mortality function during the active (flight) lifespan.     

Moving beyond abundance distributions: neutral theory and spatial patterns in a tropical forest

Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species–area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.     

The evolution of senescence through decelerating selection for system reliability

Senescence is a universal phenomenon in organisms, characterized by increasing mortality and decreasing fecundity with advancing chronological age. Most proximate agents of senescence, such as reactive oxygen species and UV radiation, are thought to operate by causing a gradual build-up of bodily damage. Yet most current evolutionary theories of senescence emphasize the deleterious effects of functioning genes in late life, leaving a gap between proximate and ultimate explanations. Here, we present an evolutionary model of senescence based on reliability theory, in which beneficial genes or gene products gradually get damaged and thereby fail, rather than actively cause harm. Specifically, the model allows organisms to evolve multiple redundant copies of a gene product (or gene) that performs a vital function, assuming that organisms can avoid condition-dependent death so long as at least one copy remains undamaged. We show that organisms with low levels of extrinsic mortality, and high levels of genetic damage, tend to evolve high levels of redundancy, and that mutation-selection balance results in a stable population distribution of the number of redundant elements. In contrast to previous evolutionary models of senescence, the mortality curves that emerge from such populations match empirical senescence patterns in three key respects: they exhibit: (1) an initially low, but rapidly increasing mortality rate at young ages, (2) a plateau in mortality at advanced ages and (3) 'mortality compensation', whereby the height of the mortality plateau is independent of the environmental conditions under which different populations evolved.     

Anatomical, physiological, and epidemiological correlates of the aging process: a confirmation of multifactorial age determination in the Libben skeletal population

Paleodemographic analyses based on estimates of skeletal age at death consistently report high levels of young adult mortality with few individuals living in excess of 50 years. Critics assert these data indicate systematic underaging of adults and justifiably remark that criteria for estimating skeletal age at death may be unreliable, age determinations are too frequently based on one or two criteria alone, and adult paleodemographic age profiles often mimic the age distribution of the modern population from which an age indicator's standards were originally derived. This study reports a series of tests based on well-documented biological aging phenomena that can be used to investigate potential effects of systematic underaging in adults, assuming the skeletal population is of sufficient size to permit such tests. These include patterns of third decade sternal clavicular epiphyseal fusion, multiple age and sex criteria associated with cortical bone dynamics, and fractures known to occur throughout the entire adult ages range. These phenomena are examined here for the Libben site skeletal population where adult age at death was determined by the multifactorial summary age technique. None of the biological criteria reported here were used in the Libben summary age analysis and thus serve as an independent test of accuracy in age determination. In addition, the summary age method has recently been applied to a series of modern skeletons of known age (Todd samples 1 and 2). Age standards for criteria employed with Libben and Todd 1 were identical. Since Todd 1 displayed underaging in older adults, a second Libben age distribution adjusted for Todd 1 bias was generated for comparison. A third Libben adult survivorship profile based on a Coale and Demeny West level 3 mortality experience, considered by some to be a more realistic model for skeletal populations, was produced for comparison. For all criteria examined, original Libben summary ages provided superior concordance with known patterns of biological aging in human populations. While Libben ages adjusted for Todd 1 bias were slightly better in the third decade, both Todd 1 adjusted and Coale and Demeny West level 3 age distributions produced unrealistic patterns of biological aging for individuals greater than 35 years. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Patterns of physiological decline due to age and selection in Drosophila melanogaster

In outbred sexually reproducing populations, age‐specific mortality rates reach a plateau in late life following the exponential increase in mortality rates that marks aging. Little is known about what happens to physiology when cohorts transition from aging to late life. We measured age‐specific values for starvation resistance, desiccation resistance, time‐in‐motion, and geotaxis in ten Drosophila melanogaster populations: five populations selected for rapid development and five control populations. Adulthood was divided into two stages, the aging phase and the late‐life phase according to demographic data. Consistent with previous studies, we found that populations selected for rapid development entered the late‐life phase at an earlier age than the controls. Age‐specific rates of change for all physiological phenotypes showed differences between the aging phase and the late‐life phase. This result suggests that late life is physiologically distinct from aging. The ages of transitions in physiological characteristics from aging to late life statistically match the age at which the demographic transition from aging to late life occurs, in all cases but one. These experimental results support evolutionary theories of late life that depend on patterns of decline and stabilization in the forces of natural selection.     

The neglected tool in the Bayesian ecologist's shed: a case study testing informative priors' effect on model accuracy

Despite benefits for precision, ecologists rarely use informative priors. One reason that ecologists may prefer vague priors is the perception that informative priors reduce accuracy. To date, no ecological study has empirically evaluated data‐derived informative priors' effects on precision and accuracy. To determine the impacts of priors, we evaluated mortality models for tree species using data from a forest dynamics plot in Thailand. Half the models used vague priors, and the remaining half had informative priors. We found precision was greater when using informative priors, but effects on accuracy were more variable. In some cases, prior information improved accuracy, while in others, it was reduced. On average, models with informative priors were no more or less accurate than models without. Our analyses provide a detailed case study on the simultaneous effect of prior information on precision and accuracy and demonstrate that when priors are specified appropriately, they lead to greater precision without systematically reducing model accuracy.     

An analytical model of stand dynamics as a function of tree growth, mortality and recruitment: the shade tolerance-stand structure hypothesis revisited

Light competition and interspecific differences in shade tolerance are considered key determinants of forest stand structure and dynamics. Specifically two main stand diameter distribution types as a function of shade tolerance have been proposed based on empirical observations. All-aged stands of shade tolerant species tend to have steeply descending, monotonic diameter distributions (inverse J-shaped curves). Shade intolerant species in contrast typically exhibit normal (unimodal) tree diameter distributions due to high mortality rates of smaller suppressed trees. In this study we explore the generality of this hypothesis which implies a causal relationship between light competition or shade tolerance and stand structure. For this purpose we formulate a partial differential equation system of stand dynamics as a function of individual tree growth, recruitment and mortality which allows us to explore possible individual-based mechanisms--e.g. light competition-underlying observed patterns of stand structure--e.g. unimodal or inverse J-shaped equilibrium diameter curves. We find that contrary to expectations interspecific differences in growth patterns can result alone in any of the two diameter distributions types observed in the field. In particular, slow growing species can present unimodal equilibrium curves even in the absence of light competition. Moreover, light competition and shade intolerance evaluated both at the tree growth and mortality stages did not have a significant impact on stand structure that tended to converge systematically towards an inverse J-shaped curves for most tree growth scenarios. Realistic transient stand dynamics for even aged stands of shade intolerant species (unimodal curves) were only obtained when recruitment was completely suppressed, providing further evidence on the critical role played by juvenile stages of tree development (e.g. the sampling stage) on final forest structure and composition. The results also point out the relevance of partial differential equations systems as a tool for exploring the individual-level mechanisms underpinning forest structure, particularly in relation to more complex forest simulation models that are more difficult to analyze and to interpret from a biological point of view.     

Influences of the biophysical environment on blister rust and mountain pine beetle,and their interactions,in whitebark pine forests

Aim To understand how the biophysical environment influences patterns of infection by non‐native blister rust (caused by Cronartium ribicola) and mortality caused by native mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) communities, to determine how these disturbances interact, and to gain insight into how climate change may influence these patterns in the future. Location High‐elevation forests in south‐west Montana, central Idaho, eastern and western Oregon, USA. Methods Stand inventory and dendroecological methods were used to assess stand structure and composition and to reconstruct forest history at sixty 0.1‐ha plots. Patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality in whitebark pine trees were examined using nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis ANOVA, Mann–Whitney U‐tests, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov two‐sample tests. Stepwise regression was used to build models of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐related mortality rates based on a suite of biophysical site variables. Results Occurrence of blister rust infections was significantly different among the mountain ranges, with a general gradient of decreasing blister rust occurrence from east to west. Evidence of mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality was identified on 83% of all dead whitebark pine trees and was relatively homogenous across the study area. Blister rust infected trees of all ages and sizes uniformly, while mountain pine beetles infested older, larger trees at all sites. Stepwise regressions explained 64% and 58% of the variance in blister rust infection and beetle‐caused mortality, respectively, indicating that these processes are strongly influenced by the biophysical environment. More open stand structures produced by beetle outbreaks may increase the exposure of surviving whitebark pine trees to blister rust infection. Main conclusions Variability in the patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality elucidated the fundamental dynamics of these disturbance agents and suggests that the effects of climate change will be complex in whitebark pine communities and vary across the species’ range. Interactions between blister rust and beetle outbreaks may accelerate declines or facilitate the rise of rust resistance in whitebark pine depending on forest conditions at the time of the outbreak.     

Tracking Human Disturbance in Mangroves: Estimating Harvest Rates on a Micronesian Island

Disturbance is an integral component in mangrove forest dynamics, influencing forest structure, composition, and function. The impacts of human disturbance, however, threaten mangrove forests throughout the world. Small-scale wood harvesting on the small Pacific island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, provided an instructive scenario for exploring the dynamics of human disturbance. Natural disturbances on the island are rare, but the growing island population harvests mangrove trees for firewood and construction materials, placing pressure on the forest. In order to determine recent harvest rates, we estimated gap ages by developing a time scale for mangrove wood decomposition and by quantifying growth rates for Rhizophora apiculata and Bruguiera gymnorhiza seedlings. Stump and log decomposition patterns were useful in aging gaps, although some patterns were more reliable than others. Seedlings of both species added approximately 5 nodes/year depending on light conditions. The island-wide harvest rate was 10% over the last 10 years, but the rates varied widely among different parts of the island. Rhizophora apiculata has been harvested preferentially, and a dearth of young trees where harvesting has been heaviest portends a decline of this highly desired species in the forest. Socio-economic data substantiated some but not all of the trends we observed. Even on a small island, local differences in both natural and anthropogenic factors are important to understanding forest dynamics.     

Causes and implications of the correlation between forest productivity and tree mortality rates

At global and regional scales, tree mortality rates are positively correlated with forest net primary productivity (NPP). Yet causes of the correlation are unknown, in spite of potentially profound implications for our understanding of environmental controls of forest structure and dynamics and, more generally, our understanding of broad-scale environmental controls of population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Here we seek to shed light on the causes of geographic patterns in tree mortality rates, and we consider some implications of the positive correlation between mortality rates and NPP. To reach these ends, we present seven hypotheses potentially explaining the correlation, develop an approach to help distinguish among the hypotheses, and apply the approach in a case study comparing a tropical and temperate forest. Based on our case study and literature synthesis, we conclude that no single mechanism controls geographic patterns of tree mortality rates. At least four different mechanisms may be at play, with the dominant mechanisms depending on whether the underlying productivity gradients are caused by climate or soil fertility. Two of the mechanisms are consequences of environmental selection for certain combinations of life-history traits, reflecting trade-offs between growth and defense (along edaphic productivity gradients) and between reproduction and persistence (as manifested in the adult tree stature continuum along climatic and edaphic gradients). The remaining two mechanisms are consequences of environmental influences on the nature and strength of ecological interactions: competition (along edaphic gradients) and pressure from plant enemies (along climatic gradients). For only one of these four mechanisms, competition, can high mortality rates be considered to be a relatively direct consequence of high NPP. The remaining mechanisms force us to adopt a different view of causality, in which tree growth rates and probability of mortality can vary with at least a degree of independence along productivity gradients. In many cases, rather than being a direct cause of high mortality rates, NPP may remain high in spite of high mortality rates. The independent influence of plant enemies and other factors helps explain why forest biomass can show little correlation, or even negative correlation, with forest NPP.     

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging‐related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging‐related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging‐related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging‐related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging‐related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging‐related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.     

Characteristics of Old-Growth and Secondary Forests in Relation to Age and Typhoon Disturbance

Many properties of forest ecosystems, such as species composition and forest structure, naturally vary with forest age. However, in regions prone to cyclone disturbances, both forest age and cyclone severities can play a role shaping these properties. To evaluate potential effects of an altered cyclone regime on forest ecosystems, it is necessary to disentangle the roles of cyclones and forest age on different forest characteristics. In this study, we compared species composition and forest structure at plot level across sites with similar climate and topographic backgrounds, yet differing in age and typhoon severities in northeastern Taiwan. We found shorter tree stature, higher wood density, higher tree species diversity, and lower typhoon-induced tree mortality in the sites with more severe typhoon disturbances. On the other hand, regardless of typhoon severity, the sites of younger ages had a considerably smaller amount of woody debris, suggesting that it takes time for the accumulation of woody debris. More typhoon-induced canopy gaps at sites with more severe typhoon influences highlights a role of typhoons in canopy dynamics. However, the lack of gaps prior to typhoon disturbances in the less severely affected forest is likely related to the low background mortality associated with the relative young age of the forest. Our results indicate that frequent or severe typhoon disturbances can homogenize some of the structural differences among forests of different ages. If the frequency or severity of cyclones increase in the future, many forests, including old-growth forests, may gradually lose large trees.     

Coefficient of variation of lifespan across the tree of life: Is it a signature of programmed aging?

Measurements of variation are of great importance for studying the stability of pathological phenomena and processes. For the biology of aging, it is very important not only to determine average mortality, but also to study its stability in time and the size of fluctuations that are indicated by the variation coefficient of lifespan (CV_LS). It is believed that a relatively small (～20%) value of CV_LS in humans, comparable to the coefficients of variation of other events programmed in ontogenesis (for example, menarche and menopause), indicates a relatively rigid determinism (N. S. Gavrilova et al. (2012) Biochemistry (Moscow), 77, 754-760). To assess the prevalence of this phenomenon, we studied the magnitude of CV_LS, as well as the coefficients of skewness and kurtosis in diverse representatives of the animal kingdom using data provided by the Institute for Demographic Research (O. R. Jones et al. (2014) Nature, 505, 169-173). We found that, unlike humans and laboratory animals, in most examined species the values of CV_LS are rather high, indicating heterogeneity of the lifespan in the cohorts studied. This is probably due to the large influence of background mortality, as well as the non-monotonicity of total mortality in the wild, especially at the earliest ages. One way to account for this influence is to “truncate” the data (removing the earliest and latest ages from consideration). To reveal the effect of this procedure, we proposed a new indicator, the stability coefficient of mortality dynamics, which indicates how quickly CV_LS is reduced to values that characterize a relatively homogeneous population (33%) when the data are “truncated”. Such indicators facilitate the use of the parameters of survival curves for analysis of the effects of geroprotectors, lifestyle, and other factors on lifespan, and for the quantification of relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to the dynamics of aging in human and animal populations, including those living in the wild.     

Pyric tree spatial patterning interactions in historical and contemporary mixed conifer forests,California, USA

Tree spatial patterns in dry coniferous forests of the western United States, and analogous ecosystems globally, were historically aggregated, comprising a mixture of single trees and groups of trees. Modern forests, in contrast, are generally more homogeneous and overstocked than their historical counterparts. As these modern forests lack regular fire, pattern formation and maintenance is generally attributed to fire. Accordingly, fires in modern forests may not yield historically analogous patterns. However, direct observations on how selective tree mortality among pre‐existing forest structure shapes tree spatial patterns is limited. In this study, we (a) simulated fires in historical and contemporary counterpart plots in a Sierra Nevadan mixed‐conifer forest, (b) estimated tree mortality, and (c) examined tree spatial patterns of live trees before and after fire, and of fire‐killed trees. Tree mortality in the historical period was clustered and density‐dependent, because trees were aggregated and segregated by tree size before fire. Thus, fires maintained an aggregated distribution of tree groups. Tree mortality in the contemporary period was widespread, except for dispersed large trees, because most trees were a part of large, interconnected tree groups. Thus, postfire tree patterns were more uniform and devoid of moderately sized tree groups. Postfire tree patterns in the historical period, unlike the contemporary period, were within the historical range of variability identified for the western United States. This divergence suggests that decades of forest dynamics without significant disturbances have altered the historical means of pyric pattern formation. Our results suggest that ecological silvicultural treatments, such as forest restoration thinnings, which emulate qualities of historical forests may facilitate the reintroduction of fire as a means to reinforce forest structural heterogeneity.     

Quantitative genetic tests of recent senescence theory: age-specific mortality and male fertility in Drosophila melanogaster

Quantitative genetic models of aging predict that additive genetic variance for fitness components should increase with age. However, recent studies have found that at very late ages, the genetic variance components decline. This decline may be due to an age-related drop in reproductive effort. If genetic variance in reproductive effort affects the genetic variance in mortality, the decline in reproductive effort at late ages should lead to a decrease in the genetic variance in mortality. To test this, we carried out a large-scale quantitative genetic analysis of age-specific mortality and fertility in virgin male Drosophila melanogaster. As in earlier studies, we found that the additive variance for age-specific mortality and fertility declined at late ages. Also, recent theoretical developments provide new predictions to distinguish between the mutation accumulation (MA) and antagonistic pleiotropy (AP) models of senescence. The deleterious effects of inbreeding are expected to increase with age under MA, but not under AP. This prediction was supported for both age-specific mortality and male fertility. Under AP, the ratio of dominance to additive variance is expected to decline with age. This predicition, too, was supported by the data analyzed here. Taken together, these analyses provide support for both the models playing a role in the aging process. We argue that the time has come to move beyond a simple comparison of these genetic models, and to think more deeply about the evolutionary causes and consequences of senescence.     

Influences of forest structure, climate and species composition on tree mortality across the eastern US

Few studies have quantified regional variation in tree mortality, or explored whether species compositional changes or within-species variation are responsible for regional patterns, despite the fact that mortality has direct effects on the dynamics of woody biomass, species composition, stand structure, wood production and forest response to climate change. Using bayesian analysis of over 430,000 tree records from a large eastern US forest database we characterised tree mortality as a function of climate, soils, species and size (stem diameter). We found (1) mortality is U-shaped vs. stem diameter for all 21 species examined; (2) mortality is hump-shaped vs. plot basal area for most species; (3) geographical variation in mortality is substantial, and correlated with several environmental factors; and (4) individual species vary substantially from the combined average in the nature and magnitude of their mortality responses to environmental variation. Regional variation in mortality is therefore the product of variation in species composition combined with highly varied mortality-environment correlations within species. The results imply that variation in mortality is a crucial part of variation in the forest carbon cycle, such that including this variation in models of the global carbon cycle could significantly narrow uncertainty in climate change predictions.     

Drought-induced forest decline: causes, scope and implications

A large number of episodes of forest mortality associated with drought and heat stress have been detected worldwide in recent decades, suggesting that some of the world's forested ecosystems may be already responding to climate change. Here, we summarize a special session titled 'Drought-induced forest decline: causes, scope and implications' within the 12th European Ecological Federation Congress, held in ávila (Spain) from 25 to 29 September 2011. The session focused on the interacting causes and impacts of die-off episodes at the community and ecosystem levels, and highlighted recent events of drought- and heat-related tree decline, advances in understanding mechanisms and in predicting mortality events, and diverse consequences of forest decline. Talks and subsequent discussion noted a potentially important role of carbon that may be interrelated with plant hydraulics in the multi-faceted process leading to drought-induced mortality; a substantial and yet understudied capacity of many forests to cope with extreme climatic events; and the difficulty of separating climate effects from other anthropogenic changes currently shaping forest dynamics in many regions of the Earth. The need for standard protocols and multi-level monitoring programmes to track the spatio-temporal scope of forest decline globally was emphasized as critical for addressing this emerging environmental issue.