Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70 years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.     

The taxonomic distribution of rare and common species among families in the vascular plant flora of Fennoscandia

Many plant traits are not randomly distributed among families. The question considered here is ‘are rarity and commonness of vascular plants in Fennoscandia randomly distributed among families?’ If more rare or more common species are found within a family, this may give some initial indications about which traits may predict rarity and commonness of species. A species was defined as rare or common based on its abundance and on the number of grid squares it occupies. 1521 naturally occurring species in 229 75×75 km grid squares were used. Permutation tests were performed to assess statistically if rarity and commonness are randomly distributed among families. Several families can be identified as having more rare or more common species than would be expected under a random allocation model. However, there are little deviations from what would be expected if rarity and commonness were randomly distributed among families in the whole Fennoscandian flora. It is proposed that the arbitrary geographical limits of the study area may account for the lack of any clear patterns of rarity and commonness among and between families.     

Testing the effects of plant species loss on multiple ecosystem functions based on extinction scenarios

Ecosystem functions are threatened by continuing global loss of biodiversity. We simultaneously investigated three ecosystem functions and forage nutrient values following potential species extinction scenarios (dominant species removal, rare species removal, end-member species removal and random species removal) in a Mongolian grassland. ANPP, forage nutrient values, litter decomposition, and soil respiration were measured one and/or two years after plant removal. DNA samples of microorganisms extracted from the soil were subjected to metagenomics analysis. Finally, we calculated the multifunctionality, and examined the relationship of multifunctionality with plant and microorganism diversity. Among ecosystem functions, ANPP and litter decomposition rate decreased under random and rare species extinction scenarios, respectively, and forage quality increased when only dominant species had been removed. Diversity and species composition of soil microorganism were not affected by plant species richness or removal scenario. Only genus-level diversity of bacteria and ANPP were significantly and positively correlated with microbial diversity. Taken together, decreasing species richness of plants and soil organisms rarely impaired multifunctionality. Ecosystem functions were relatively robust to realistic disturbances and species extinction in natural grasslands. However, as each function responded differently to the different sets of species removed, the consequences of a realistic non-random extinction scenario for multiple ecosystem functions should be critical to the management of biodiversity loss caused by different disturbances.     

Potential consequences of climate warming for tropical plant species in high mountains of southern Ethiopia

Aim Species in the tropics respond to global warming by altitudinal distribution shifts. Consequences for biodiversity may be severe, resulting in lowland attrition, range‐shift gaps, range contractions and extinction risks. We aim to identify plant groups (growth forms, families, endemic status) with higher than average risks. Location South Ethiopian highlands. Methods Based on observational data from mainly unexplored and remote mountain regions, we applied a published model to project the consequences of an upward shift of thermal site conditions on the altitudinal distribution of 475 plant species. Annual average temperature increases of up to 5 °C were evaluated. Differences between groups of species were analysed by a permutation procedure and Generalized Linear Models. Results Because of a limited regional species pool, even mild warming is projected to create strong potential risks concerning lowland attrition, i.e. the net loss of species richness because of upward range shifts in the absence of new species arriving. Likewise, many species are expected to face range‐shift gaps, i.e. the absence of an overlap between future and current altitudinal ranges already under mild warming scenarios. Altitudinal contractions and mountain‐top extinctions will potentially become important when warming exceeds 3.5 °C. Mean area per species is projected to decline by 55% for the A2 emissions scenario (+4.2 °C until 2100) because of the physical shape of the mountains. Higher than average vulnerability is expected for endemic species as well as for herbs and ferns. Plant families that are especially threatened are identified. Main conclusions Lowland biotic attrition and range‐shift gaps as predicted by a simple model driven by shifts of isotherms will result in novel challenges for preserving mountain biodiversity in the inner tropics. Whereas contractions of occupied area are expected to threaten endemic and already endangered species in particular, we suggest that conservation priorities can be identified based on simple prognostic models even without precise regional warming scenarios.     

生境丧失对具有似Allee效应集合种群的影响及对策——以江苏盐城为例

似Allee效应对物种续存是潜在的扰动因素,稀有物种更易受其影响,可能增加生存于破碎化栖息地中的珍稀物种的死亡风险;但似Allee效应对多物种集合种群续存的影响及其在珍稀物种保护中的应用未能引起足够重视。将似Allee效应引入集合种群动力模式,建立了生境丧失下具有似Allee效应的n-珍稀物种的集合种群模式,并以江苏盐城滩涂湿地中的29种珍稀物种为研究实例。研究结果表明:(1)似Allee效应导致n-物种集合种群多度作长期变周期振荡,原本竞争共存物种可能无法继续共存,甚至灭绝。(2)似Allee效应增强对次强种及劣势种的生存极为不利,导致次强物种由强至弱灭绝,劣势物种由弱至强依次灭绝。(3)盐城天然湿地丧失29%后,11种劣势物种的集合种群由弱到强将最终依次灭绝,灭绝迟豫时间为304～890a,这些物种即Hanski所指的"活死者"。(4)适度增加栖息地面积是保护珍稀物种多样性的有效方法之一,在盐城现存3200km2的天然湿地基础上适度增加1801～2064km2左右栖息地面积,可以有效保护29种濒危物种的多样性,同时应注意结合针对具体物种的保护措施来提高濒危物种多度。研究结果对物种多样性保护及自然保护区建设具有重要的理论指导意义。     

Species diversity preserved in different numbers of nature reserves of the same total area

The expected number of species occurring in different numbers of reserves of the same total area is examined on different assumptions of the spatial distribution and the probability of extinction. The advantage of one large reserve or several smaller ones of equal total area depends on the spatial distributions of species and the stage after the establishement of reserves. In general, several smaller reserves maintain more species immediately after the establishments unless the spatial distribution are uniform or random, whereas one large reserve excels several smaller ones after some rare species have gone extinct unless the spatial distributions are strongly contagious. Since the extinction of rare species must be facilitated as the size of each reserve reduces, the area of a reserve should be larger than the critical area that ensures the persistence of the species. Hence it is concluded that one or a few large reserves are a better strategy in order to maintain the species diversity.     

Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species

Global circulation models predict an increase in mean annual temperature between 2.1 and 4.6 °C by 2080 in the northern temperate zone. The associated changes in the ratio of extinctions and colonizations at the boundaries of species ranges are expected to result in northward range shifts for a lot of species. However, net species colonization at northern boundary ranges, necessary for a northward shift and for range conservation, may be hampered because of habitat fragmentation. We report the results of two forest plant colonization studies in two fragmented landscapes in central Belgium. Almost all forest plant species (85%) had an extremely low success of colonizing spatially segregated new suitable forest habitats after c . 40 years. In a landscape with higher forest connectivity, colonization success was higher but still insufficient to ensure large-scale colonization. Under the hypothesis of net extinction at southern range boundaries, forest plant species dispersal limitation will prevent net colonization at northern range boundaries required for range conservation.     

Stochastic geometry best explains spatial associations among species pairs and plant functional types in species‐rich shrublands

Some conceptual models seeking to explain the coexistence of multiple species in hyperdiverse settings predict that species will not be randomly distributed with respect to each other. In stark contrast the ‘stochastic geometry’ model assumes that a species fine‐scale spatial distribution is independent of that of other species in the community. Empirical tests in temperate and tropical forests have provided support for both perspectives. Using point pattern analyses we assessed the prevalence of heterospecific associations between > 10 500 pairs of species and > 3400 pairs of plant functional types (PFTs) in four biodiverse shrubland communities in southwestern Australia. After controlling for first‐order effects, spatial associations between species and PFTs were rare, but were most prevalent at the least species‐rich of the four sites considered. Individuals tended to have fewer species in their local neighbourhoods than expected under a null model of random relabelling, with this departure most pronounced at the site with fewest species. The consistency of neighbourhood composition experienced by individuals of the same species is, as a result, less than the average under random mixing. Our results demonstrate that the frequency of heterospecific spatial associations is both rare in speciose systems and declines with species richness, and provide further empirical support for the stochastic geometry assumption in species‐rich communities.     

Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats

We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.     

Taxon age,origination, and extinction through geologic time

Changes in the taxon ages of fossil marine families that are alive and those that become extinct in each stage of the Phanerozoic reflect changes in the origination rate, differences in the extinction rate of families with different taxon ages, and mass extinction events. Extinct families are generally much younger than the population from which they were drawn. Periods dominated by higher numbers of younger families are more susceptible to larger size extinctions and greater variation in extinction size. As a result the relative size of extinction peaks must be viewed with regard to the taxon age structure of the population. Mass extinctions cause little change in the taxon age of the fauna. However, adaptive radiations cause a large drop in the average age of the families that are alive at any given time. Families must be treated as dynamic entities in macroevolutionary studies because their probabilities of extinction change over time.     

Plant diversity in mediterranean-climate regions

The high plant diversity of mediterranean-climate regions has attracted much attention over the past few years. This review discusses patterns and determinants of local, differential and regional plant diversity in all five regions. Local diversity shows great variation within and between regions and explanations for these patterns invoke a wide range of hypotheses. Patterns of regional diversity are the result of differential speciation and extinction rates during the Quaternary. These rates have been influenced more by the incidence of fire and the severity of climate change than by environmental heterogeneity. All regions have a high number of rare and locally endemic taxa that survive as small populations, many of which are threatened by habitat transformation.     

Non‐random patterns of invasion and extinction reduce phylogenetic diversity in island bird assemblages

Anthropogenically driven changes in bird communities on oceanic islands exemplify the biotic upheaval experienced by island floras and faunas. While the influence of invasions and extinctions on species richness and beta‐diversity of island bird assemblages has been explored, little is known about the impact of these invasions and extinctions on phylogenetic diversity. Here we quantify phylogenetic diversity of island bird assemblages resulting from extinctions alone, invasions alone, and the combination of extinctions and invasions in the historic time period (1500 CE to the current), and compare it to the expected phylogenetic diversity that would result if these processes involved randomly selected island bird species. We assessed phylogenetic diversity and structure at the scale of the island (n = 152), the archipelago containing the islands (n = 22), and the four oceans containing the archipelagos using three measures. We found that extinction, invasion, and the combination of invasion and extinction generally resulted in lower phylogenetic diversity than expected, regardless of the spatial scale examined. We conclude that extinction and invasion of birds on islands are non‐random with respect to phylogeny and that these processes generally leave bird assemblages with lower phylogenetic diversity than we would expect under random invasion or extinction.     

How much evolutionary history in a 10 x 10 m plot?

We use a fully dated phylogenetic tree of the angiosperm families to calculate phylogenetic diversity (PD) in four South African vegetation types with distinct evolutionary histories. Since the branch length values are in this case represented by the ages of plant lineages, PD becomes the cumulative evolutionary age (CEA) of assemblages. Unsurprisingly, total CEA increases with family and with species diversity and observed values are the same as expected from random sampling of family lists. However, when random sampling is done from species lists, observed CEAs are generally lower than expected. In vegetation types which have undergone recent diversification-grassland, fynbos and Nama-karoo-co-occurring species are more closely related than expected, but in subtropical thicket the observed CEAs are well described by random sampling. The use of CEA has great potential for assessing the age of biotic assemblages, particularly as the dating of genus and species-level phylogenies become more accurate.     

Phylogenetic Autocorrelation Analysis of Extinction Risks and the Loss of Evolutionary History in Felidae (Carnivora: Mammalia)

Phylogeny provides a natural measurement of biodiversity by allowing the computation of indexes that express the amount of phylogenetic diversity that are, in principle, independent of species counts and provides an objective measurement to evaluate the amount of biodiversity lost under the ongoing extinction crisis. In this note, we analyzed patterns of phylogenetic autocorrelation in extinction risks in Felidae (Mammalia: Carnivora) and estimated, using simulation procedures, the amount of phylogenetic diversity loss if k species are preserved in this clade. The simulations showed that loss of phylogenetic diversity based on the IUCN list for extinction threats in Felidae is within the expected values based on the simulated random model, a result also confirmed by the absence of phylogenetic autocorrelation in extinction risks, indicating that extinction threats are randomly distributed across the phylogeny. So, we confirm that loosing species will not necessarily generate a direct proportional loss of phylogenetic information and, consequently, that alternative measures of biodiversity could be used to establish conservation priorities under the common restriction of resources.     

Ecological correlates of extinction risk in Chinese birds

China is one of the countries with the richest bird biodiversity in the world. Among the 1372 Chinese birds, 146 species are considered threatened and three species are regionally extinct according to the officially released China Biodiversity Red List in 2015. Here, we conducted the first extensive analysis to systematically investigate the patterns and processes of extinction and threat in Chinese birds. We addressed the following four questions. First, is extinction risk randomly distributed among avian families in Chinese birds? Second, which families contain more threatened species than would be expected by chance? Third, which species traits are important in determining the extinction risk in Chinese birds using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach? Finally, is the form of the relationship between traits additive or nonadditive (synergistic)? We found that the extinction risk of Chinese birds was not randomly distributed among taxonomic families. The families that contained significantly more threatened species than expected were the hornbills, cranes, pittas, pheasants and hawks and eagles. We obtained eleven species traits that are commonly hypothesized to influence extinction risk from the literature: body size, clutch size, trophic level, mobility, habitat specificity, geographical range size, nest type, nest site, flocking tendency, migrant status and hunting vulnerability. After phylogenetic correction, model selection based on Akaike's information criterion identified the synergistic interaction between body size and hunting vulnerability as the single best correlate of extinction risk in Chinese birds. Our results suggest that, in order to be effective, priority management efforts should be given both to certain extinction‐prone families, particularly the hornbills, pelicans, cranes, pittas, pheasants and hawks and eagles, and to bird species with large body size and high hunting vulnerability.     

Time-lags in insect response to plant productivity: significance for plant-insect interactions in deserts

Abstract.

• 1 The interactions between the univoltine mirid bug Cupsodes infuscatus and its food plant, the geophyte Asphodelus ramosus, were studied in the Negev desert for a 5 year period. The bug feeds mainly on Asphodelus inflorescence meristems, flowers and fruits, and in some years may destroy more than 95% of the plant population expected fruit production.
• 2 Asphodelus expected fruit production fluctuated widely during the study period, but was not related to precipitation. Cupsodes density was related to the plant expected fruit production, but with a 1 year time lag. In years of high inflorescence production, a high per-capita reproduction of the bug resulted in a dense bug population in the following year. This dense population then decimated the plant fruit production, became food limited and had a low per-capita reproduction.
• 3 This kind of time lag is expected to be common among desert insect herbivores that specialize in using ephemeral resources. The rare years of high plant production are in general preceded and followed by years of low plant production. Hence, in years which contribute most to plant reserves (seed, underground storage organs), insect herbivores are relatively rare as a result of food limitation in preceding low production years. But the insect populations which build up during years of high plant production decimate their food resources and become food limited in subsequent years with low plant production.
• 4 Thus, herbivorous insects seem to have a limited ability to affect plant population dynamics in desert ecosystems. In contrast, the potential appears to be much greater for herbivorous insects to be regulated by their food plants.

     

Assessment of Rarity Category for Higher Aquatic Plants

A spatiotemporal analysis of higher aquatic plant flora in the water bodies of the city of Kyiv (Ukraine) has been used to develop local protection criteria for 22 rare and protected species. These criteria differ considerably from the regional ones due to the significant transformation of the environment in an urban landscape. The rare component of macrophyte flora in the water bodies of the city have become poorer over the past 40–50 years; two species have disappeared from the urban flora, seven species are characterized as critically endangered, five species are endangered, four are vulnerable and at a high extinction risk, and four more species are characterized by a low risk of extinction.     

How fast is the carousel? Direct indices of species mobility with examples from an Oklahoma grassland

Abstract. Current interest in small‐scale species dynamics has led to a proliferation of mobility indices. We advocate the use of direct measures of mobility such as immigration rate, extinction rate, residence time, and carousel time. We also demonstrate that the null expectation of cumulative frequency under different null models can be calculated explicitly. Species can depart from the commonly‐used ‘random reassignment’ model simply because of longevity, and not mobility per se. We therefore prefer a random immigration null model, which assumes that immigration locations are randomized. We examined mobility patterns of selected plant species, studied in 256 quadrats of each of four grains (ranging from 1/64 m² to 1 m²) in an Oklahoma grassland. Residence times and carousel times can be centuries or even millennia for some species. We explore the numerical and biological reasons for relationships between mobility statistics. Mobility statistics are fairly consistent among grains and years, although the residence times of species exhibit some subtle scale dependence. Species depart from a random immigration model very slightly – but the departure is consistent: species tend to re‐occupy previously vacated space more often than expected due to chance. We believe that the use of direct indices will facilitate the study of how species characteristics influence mobility.     

Life history traits as predictors of plant rarity, with particular reference to hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae

We made a comparison between life history and reproductive characteristics of a group of Dutch rare (30) and common (105) plant species, all dicotyledonous and insect-visited forbs. The traits life span, clonality, breeding system, seed production, seed dispersal, and soil seed bank longevity are considered. All trait values have been ranked according to their possible effect on the vulnerability of a species for extinction, where low values indicate a low risk and high values a high risk for a species. Rare and common plants differed significantly in four traits: seed production, breeding system, seed bank longevity and clonality. The discriminant analysis showed that 79% of the 135 species was correctly classified in the group they presently belong to. Especially species that are rare now but were much more common 50–100 years ago were classified as being common species, pointing at the detrimental effect of habitat loss these species encountered at which they have not yet been able to adapted to. The data set include eight hemiparasitic plant species (familyOrobanchaceae), of which six are endangered in The Netherlands and two more common. Both rare and common hemiparasites scored high traits values, indicating that they are vulnerable for extinction. The hemiparasites had several characteristics in common: they are all annuals or biennials that have no means of clonal reproduction. They all have non-clustered, zygomorphic flowers that produce nectar and have a precise pollen presentation and are mainly visited by (bumble) bees. Mean life span was significantly shorter in the eight hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae than in the non-hemiparasiticScrophulariaceae used for comparison (4 species). Overall, we concluded that hemiparasitic plants have a special combination of life history traits which makes them vulnerable for local and regional extinction.     

Coral reefs as drivers of cladogenesis: expanding coral reefs, cryptic extinction events, and the development of biodiversity hotspots

Diversification rates within four conspicuous coral reef fish families (Labridae, Chaetodontidae, Pomacentridae and Apogonidae) were estimated using Bayesian inference. Lineage through time plots revealed a possible late Eocene/early Oligocene cryptic extinction event coinciding with the collapse of the ancestral Tethyan/Arabian hotspot. Rates of diversification analysis revealed elevated cladogenesis in all families in the Oligocene/Miocene. Throughout the Miocene, lineages with a high percentage of coral reef-associated taxa display significantly higher net diversification rates than expected. The development of a complex mosaic of reef habitats in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) during the Oligocene/Miocene appears to have been a significant driver of cladogenesis. Patterns of diversification suggest that coral reefs acted as a refuge from high extinction, as reef taxa are able to sustain diversification at high extinction rates. The IAA appears to support both cladogenesis and survival in associated lineages, laying the foundation for the recent IAA marine biodiversity hotspot.