Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

The influence of prey consumption and demographic stochasticity on population growth rate of Isle Royale wolves Canis lupus

The relationship between the rates of prey capture and predator population growth is a fundamental aspect of predation, yet it is rarely measured for vertebrate predators. For the isolated wolf population on Isle Royale, annual variation in kill rate explains 22% of the variation in wolf population growth rate. From the slope of this relationship, we estimate that the production efficiency (ratio of production to respiration) of wolves is between 0.5% and 1.5%. More generally, we assess the relative extent to which wolf population growth rate is affected by density dependence, prey availability (moose, Alces alces ), winter weather, and demographic stochasticity. Prey availability explains the most variation in wolf growth rate (42%), but this is only recognized after accounting for the influence of a disease-induced population crash and age structure of the prey population (i.e. number of vulnerable moose, >9 years of age). Demographic stochasticity accounts for approximately 30% of the variation in wolf growth rate. This recognition is important, but not surprising, given that the average population size of Isle Royale wolves is 22. Previous work indicates that the effect of winter climate, as mediated through prey vulnerability and kill rates, is substantial. This work indicates that the direct effect of winter climate is weak, and explains only about 4% of the variation in wolf growth rate (P=0.10).     

Interacting effect of wolves and climate on recruitment in a northern mountain caribou population

There is limited research on the influence of Pacific‐based climate in large herbivore populations. Additionally, much of our understanding on the effect of large‐scale climate on ungulate population dynamics has occurred on forage‐limited rather than predator‐limited populations. We compared the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index, and local weather on recruitment in a predator‐limited mountain‐dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou population in the Yukon Territory, Canada, across a range of wolf Canis lupus densities. A large‐scale wolf removal program allowed us to examine the role of Pacific climate and weather when wolves were reduced to ～15% of their pre‐removal levels. Recruitment was best explained by the interaction of wolf density and April‐PDO, with wolf density explaining the most deviance. Predicted recruitment during good springs was 0.45 (SE = 0.04) during wolf removal and 0.29 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. During poor springs (low PDO, increased snow depth) predicted recruitment was 0.55 (SE = 0.10) during wolf removal and 0.12 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. With non‐altered wolf densities, there was a positive relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment due to reduced snow depth at calving, allowing parturient females to disperse up in elevation away from predators. When wolf densities were substantially reduced there was a slight negative relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment, possibly due to a more rapid vegetation green‐up reducing the temporal availability of highly nutritious forage necessary for lactation and subsequent calf growth. Attempts to find general relationships between climate and ungulate population dynamics have proven difficult due to different ecological mechanisms by which climate affects individuals across populations. Temporally varying factors, such as predator density, may also play an important role in uncovering the mechanistic relationship between climate and population dynamics.     

Fences can support restoration in human‐dominated ecosystems when rewilding with large predators

The use of fences in conservation can be controversial, as artificial barriers constrain natural behavior and ecological dynamics. However, in the case of large predators inhabiting protected areas within a hostile human‐dominated landscape, predators may remain at low densities if they face high mortality upon leaving the reserve. In turn, this may compromise the potential for density‐dependent effects such as top‐down regulation of prey species abundance. We simulate the hypothetical reintroduction of gray wolves (Canis lupus) to reserves in their former range (Scottish Highlands), with the objectives of identifying parameters that allow a viable wolf population and the potential for direct top‐down forcing of red deer (Cervus elaphus) densities. We examine the extent to which the number of dispersing wolves leaving the protected area influences whether these objectives are achieved. Our simulations confirm that source‐sink population dynamics can result in a self‐perpetuating wolf population, but one that never achieves densities needed for strong top‐down forcing. When wolf density is weakly controlled by intraspecific competition, strong top‐down forcing occurs when 20% of dispersing wolves or less leave the population. When 20–35% of dispersing wolves leave, the strength of top‐down forcing is highly variable. The wolf population remained viable when 35–60% of dispersing wolves left, but then did not exert strong top‐down forcing. Wolves were vulnerable to extinction at greater than 60% disperser loss. Despite their negative connotations, fences (including semi‐permeable ones) could increase the potential for interspecific density‐dependent processes in some cases, thereby facilitating trophic rewilding.     

Population Viability, Nature Reserves, and the Outlook for Gray Wolf Conservation in North America

Theoretical work on population viability and extinction probabilities, empirical data from Canis lupus (gray wolf) populations, and expert opinion provide only general and conflicting conclusions about the number of wolves and the size of areas needed for conservation of wolf populations. There is no threshold population size or proven reserve design that guarantees long-term (century or more) survival for a gray wolf population. Most theoretical analyses of population viability have assumed a single, isolated population and lack of management intervention, neither of which is likely for wolves. Data on survival of actual wolf populations suggest greater resiliency than is indicated by theory. In our view, the previous theoretical treatments of population viability have not been appropriate to wolves, have contributed little to their conservation, and have created unnecessary dilemmas for wolf recovery programs by overstating the required population size. Nonetheless, viability as commonly understood may be problematic for small populations at the fringe of or outside the contiguous species range, unless they are part of a metapopulation. The capability of existing nature reserves to support viable wolf populations appears related to a variety of in situ circumstances, including size, shape and topography of the reserve; productivity, numbers, dispersion, and seasonal movement of prey; extent of poaching inside; degree of persecution outside; exposure to enzootica; attitudes of local people; and proximity to other wolf populations. We estimate that a population of 100 or more wolves and a reserve of several thousand square kilometers may be necessary to maintain a viable population in complete isolation, although 3000 km² or even 500–1000 km² may be adequate under favorable circumstances. In most cases, management intervention is probably necessary to assure the viability of relatively small, isolated populations. Because most reserves may be inadequate by themselves to ensure the long-term survival of wolf populations, favorable human attitudes toward the species and its management must be recognized as paramount, and cooperation of neighboring management jurisdictions will be increasingly important.     

Density-dependent reproduction causes winter crashes in a common vole population

Common voles in western France exhibit three-year population cycles with winter crashes after large outbreaks. During the winter of 2011–2012, we monitored survival, reproduction, recruitment and population growth rate of common voles at different densities (from low to outbreak densities) in natura to better understand density dependence of demographic parameters. Between October and April, the number of animals decreased irrespective of initial density. However, the decline was more pronounced when October density was higher (loss of ≈54 % of individuals at low density and 95 % at high density). Using capture-mark-recapture models with Pradel's temporal symmetry approach, we found a negative effect of density on recruitment and reproduction. In contrast, density had a slightly positive effect on survival indicating that mortality did not drive the steeper declines in animal numbers at high density. We discuss these results in a population cycle framework, and suggest that crashes after outbreaks could reflect negative effects of density dependence on reproduction rather than changes in mortality rates.     

Variation in foraging success among predators and its implications for population dynamics

The effects of the expected predation rate on population dynamics have been studied intensively, but little is known about the effects of predation rate variability (i.e., predator individuals having variable foraging success) on population dynamics. In this study, variation in foraging success among predators was quantified by observing the predation of the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata on the cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the laboratory. A population model was then developed, and the effect of foraging variability on predator–prey dynamics was examined by incorporating levels of variation comparable to those quantified in the experiment. The variability in the foraging success among spiders was greater than would be expected by chance (i.e., the random allocation of prey to predators). The foraging variation was density‐dependent; it became higher as the predator density increased. A population model that incorporates foraging variation shows that the variation influences population dynamics by affecting the numerical response of predators. In particular, the variation induces negative density‐dependent effects among predators and stabilizes predator–prey dynamics.     

The influence of environmental factors on the dynamics of the size and spatial structure of the chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra caucasica) population on the Caucasian Reserve

The size and structure of the chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra caucasica) population as well as the influence of anthropogenic factors on it were studied on the Caucasian Reserve (Western Caucasus). The negative effect of the snow cover, the thickness of which differed from the usual level, is shown. The effect of winters with thick snow cover is confirmed by the relation between these factors and the proportion of yearlings in the population one year after the winter. An increased death rate of animals in winters with a deep snow cover is observed in the case when their density exceeds the optimal one. Wolf predation does not affect the chamois population on the reserve. The number of wolves increases with an increase in the chamois population density to 15–20 ind./1000 ha. The adverse impact of humans on the chamois population is manifested in the regions with motor roads. The chamois, as compared to the deer, suffers from poachers to a lesser degree because it inhabits inaccessible areas and its trophy value is low.     

Effects of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on breeding success in a long lived seabird

There is growing concern over the impacts of climate change on animal species. Many studies have demonstrated impacts of climate change at the population level, and density dependent effects of climate are frequently reported. However, there is an increasing recognition of the differential impact of such factors on individuals since there is marked variation in individual performance. We investigated the relationships between breeding success and environmental conditions (winter NAO and one year lagged winter NAO) and intrinsic effects (colony size, pair bond duration, past breeding success rate) in the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis , using data from a long-term study commenced in 1950. There was a negative trend in breeding success over time, and a negative relationship with winter NAO and lagged winter NAO, which themselves had shown positive increases over the study period. The effects of lagged winter NAO remained after accounting for the linear trend. There was no evidence of density dependence, with breeding success positively related to colony size. We found strong evidence that breeding success was negatively related to pair bond duration but positively related to past breeding success rate. There was also an interaction between these two intrinsic effects such that those pairs that had historically been successful maintained success with increasing pair bond duration, whereas less successful pairs showed a decline. The prediction that there would be a differential impact of extrinsic factors among pairs was supported by an interaction between past breeding success rate and winter NAO, such that pairs with low past success rate exhibited a sharp decline in breeding success with increasing winter NAO, whereas more successful pairs did not. It is critically important to understand interactions between extrinsic factors and individual heterogeneity since a differential impact on individuals will affect population structure, and hence population dynamics.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

内蒙古赛罕乌拉自然保护区狼的数量分布和食物组成

2006年1月至2008年12月,在内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区运用样线法和粪便分析法,对狼(Canis lupus)的生态分布和食物组成开展了研究。研究结果:保护区狼的数量至少7只,密度为(4.18±2.88)只/100km2,主要分布于保护区的圣山和庆云山核心区。在圣山主要活动于山脊、道路和沟谷;在庆云山主要活动于山脊。草兔(Lepus capensis)和植物在狼的食物组成中出现率最高,其食物组成在年度间存在显著差异(P<0.01),冬春与夏秋季节间差异不显著(P>0.05)。     

Home range size variation in a recovering wolf population: evaluating the effect of environmental, demographic, and social factors

Home range size in mammals is a key ecological trait and an important parameter in conservation planning, and has been shown to be influenced by ecological, demographic and social factors in animal populations. Information on space requirements is especially important for carnivore species which range over very large areas and often come into direct conflict with human interest. We used long-term telemetry-location data from a recovering wolf population in Scandinavia to investigate variation in home range size in relation to environmental and social characteristics of the different packs. Wolves showed considerable variation in home range size, which ranged from 259 to 1,676 km². Although wolf density increased fourfold during the study period, we found no evidence that intraspecific competition influenced range size. Local variation in moose density, which was the main prey for most packs, did not influence wolf home range size. Home ranges increased with latitude and elevation and decreased with increased roe deer density. Although prey biomass alone did not influence range size, our data suggest that there is a correlation between habitat characteristics, choice of prey species and possible hunting success, which currently combine to shape home range size in Scandinavian wolves.     

Effects of density, climate, and supplementary forage on body mass and pregnancy rates of female red deer in Spain

The influence of short- and long-term (cohort) effects of climate and density on the life-histories of ungulates in temperate regions may vary with latitude, habitat, and management practices, but the life-histories of ungulates in the Mediterranean region are less well known. This study examined the short- and long-term effects of rainfall and absolute density on hinds in two of the southernmost populations of red deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) in Europe. One population received supplementary forage. Unlike more northerly latitudes, where red deer hinds lose body mass in winter as a result of adverse weather, in the Spanish populations, hinds did not lose body mass. Hinds in the population that received supplementary forage were heavier and more likely to become pregnant than were the hinds in the unsupplemented population. The likelihood of pregnancy occurring was strongly influenced by hind body mass; the proportion of yearlings that became pregnant was consequently lower in the unsupplemented population than in the population that received supplementary forage. Cohort effects on hind body mass (negative for density and positive for rainfall at birth) and on the probability of pregnancy (negative for density at birth) were apparent only in the unsupplemented population, which implies that supplemental feeding may partially compensate for negative density-dependent factors during early growth, and that supplemented deer hinds may experience reduced selection pressures. These results reflect the particular seasonal variation in the abundance and quality of food in Mediterranean habitats. The delayed effects of climate and density at birth on adult hind body mass and the prevalence of pregnancy probably affects population dynamics and constitutes a mechanism by which cohort effects affect the population dynamics in Iberian red deer. The management of Iberian red deer populations should take into account cohort effects and supplemental feeding practices, which can buffer density- and climate-dependent effects and reduce natural selection pressures.     

Large-scale climatic fluctuation and population dynamics of moose and white-tailed deer

1. Mech et al . (1987) documented cumulative, negative effects of previous winters' snow on rates of population increase in moose ( Alces alces ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), but noted no effect of predation by wolves ( Canis lupus ). Those results were contested by Messier (1991), who analysed smoothed versions of the original abundance data and reported no effect of snow accumulation on population dynamics of either species, but strong effects of wolf predation and food competition.
2. McRoberts, Mech & Peterson (1995) contended that the conclusions reached by Messier (1991) were an artefact of the use of smoothed data. In a subsequent re-analysis of the smoothed data, Messier (1995) argued that the lack of an effect of snow after one year precluded the potential for a cumulative effect beyond one year.
3. We re-analysed original and smoothed data on dynamics of moose and white-tailed deer densities using the same methods as Mech et al . (1987) and Messier (1991), but we used a measure of global climatic fluctuation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The NAO is the atmospheric process determining most interannual variation in snowfall and winter temperatures in northern latitudes, and its phases drive decadal trends in wintertime precipitation.
4. We observed that rates of increase of moose and white-tailed deer in both the original and smoothed data were influenced by global climatic fluctuation at 2- and 3-year lags, as well as by delayed density-dependent feedback and wolf predation.     

Synergistic Population Density and Environmental Effects on Deer Body Condition

The ability to predict energy and protein allocation to different body condition parameters according to environmental constraints is a key component in understanding the processes underlying population dynamics. We investigated the influence of a proxy of population density and environmental factors on individual body condition parameters of female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) based on long-term monitoring (2002–2013) of autumn harvest on Anticosti Island, Québec, Canada. We used dressed body mass, peroneus muscle mass, and rump fat thickness to evaluate the nutritional status of 3,123 adult females. Density index and winter precipitation negatively affected fat reserves in autumn. We detected the negative effect of winter precipitation on fat reserves only at low density likely because individuals at high density were already in bad condition. High normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in spring (May–Jun) reduced body mass, and this influence was more pronounced under high population density, probably because individuals at high densities were less likely to be buffered against environmental fluctuations when resources were scarcer than resources at low population density. Using different body condition parameters, our results provide additional insights on how northern ungulates influenced by food limitation may respond to future environmental changes. We recommend managers to collect long-term data on multiple physiological indicators of body condition. These data could be used as an index of ecological changes and provide a quantitative basis to help setting harvest objectives or supporting adaptive management. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Social and demographic effects of anthropogenic mortality: a test of the compensatory mortality hypothesis in the red wolf

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation.     

Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate

1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses.     

Patterns of density dependence in growth,reproduction and survival in the invasive freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata in Japanese rice fields

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Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km², with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.     

Range-body mass interactions of a northern ungulate – a test of hypothesis

Summer diet, summer temperature, length of the growth season and animal density appeared to best explain annual and regional differences in calf and yearling body mass in moose from southeastern Norway. In general animals inhabiting steep, alpine landscapes had less body mass than animals using flat, low-altitude habitats. Autumn body mass of calves and yearlings decreased with increasing snow depth during the preceding winter and spring. However, calf body mass was more influenced by the summer range and less by the winter range than was body mass of yearlings. There was no indication that the effect of snow depth on autumn body mass was greater in moose living on poor than on good summer ranges. Body mass decreased with increasing competition for summer forage, while the winter range mainly had an density-independent effect. Habitat quality, expressed as regression lines between calf and yearling body mass and animal density (hunting yield), differed between regions. On ranges of medium and high altitude where birch (Betula spp.) rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) dominated moose summer diet, body mass decreased at a rapid rate with increasing animal density. Body mass decreased at a slower rate at low-altitude ranges and at high-altitude ranges where willow (Salix spp.) and forbs dominated the diet. Body mass of lactating cows decreased with increasing animal density, but animal density did not affect body mass of non-lactating cows. There was no indication that the decrease in autumn body mass with increasing moose density over the last 25 years has caused a decrease in animal condition (ability to survive the winter). The results are discussed in relation to the effect of summer and winter range on population regulation in moose. It is concluded that a density-dependent effect is apparent on the summer range even at low and intermediate population densities. On the winter range, on the other hand, density-dependence is likely to occur only at high levels of population density. Received: 4 February 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1999