Effects of demographic parameters on metapopulation size and persistence: an analytical stochastic model

An analytical stochastic metapopulation model is developed. It describes how individuals will be distributed among patches as a function of density-dependent birth, death and emigration rates, and the probability of successful dispersal. The model includes demographic stochasticity, but not catastrophes, environmental stochasticity or variation in patch size and suitability. All patches are equally likely to be colonized by migrants. The model predicts: (a) mean and variance of the number of individuals per patch; (b) probability distribution of individuals per patch; (c) mean number of individuals in transit; and (d) turn-over rate and expected persistence time of a single patch. The model shows that (a) dispersal rates must be intermediate in order to ensure metapopulation persistence; (b) the mean number of individuals per patch is often well below the carrying capacity; (c) long transit times and/or high mortality during dispersal reduce the mean number of individuals per patch; (d) density-dependent emigration responses will usually increase metapopulation size and persistence compared with density-independent dispersal; (e) an increase in the per capita net growth rate can both increase and decrease metapopulation size and persistence depending on whether dispersal rates are high or low; (f) density-independent birth, death, and emigration rates lead to a spatial pattern described by the negative binomial distribution.     

Dispersal and connectivity in metapopulations

This paper reviews characteristics of dispersal that influence metapopulation functioning, such as releasing factors, density dependence, timing and types and health of dispersers. Economic thresholds, intraspecific conflicts and avoidance of inbreeding arc often regarded as the key ultimate or proximate (or both) causes of dispersal, but there is no consensus about the most important mechanisms. Dispersing individuals arc often considered to differ genetically from the residents but good supporting evidence has only been presented for some insect species. Sex and age differences in dispersal rates are most common in polygamous species and in long-lived species with many litters per female. A bimodal distribution of dispersal distances, earlier thought to be a common pattern, is probably an artifact, caused by habitat heterogeneity and varying survival of settled individuals. Dispersal distances are longer in poor environments. Habitat specialists are more affected by boundaries during dispersal than generalists. Dispersal just before or during the early reproductive season is common in certain species occupying early successional habitats. Dispersal increased both population and metapopulation size and persistence in plants, insects and small mammals.     

Scent of a killer: How could killer yeast boost its dispersal?

Vector‐borne parasites often manipulate hosts to attract uninfected vectors. For example, parasites causing malaria alter host odor to attract mosquitoes. Here, we discuss the ecology and evolution of fruit‐colonizing yeast in a tripartite symbiosis—the so‐called “killer yeast” system. “Killer yeast” consists of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast hosting two double‐stranded RNA viruses (M satellite dsRNAs, L‐A dsRNA helper virus). When both dsRNA viruses occur in a yeast cell, the yeast converts to lethal toxin‑producing “killer yeast” phenotype that kills uninfected yeasts. Yeasts on ephemeral fruits attract insect vectors to colonize new habitats. As the viruses have no extracellular stage, they depend on the same insect vectors as yeast for their dispersal. Viruses also benefit from yeast dispersal as this promotes yeast to reproduce sexually, which is how viruses can transmit to uninfected yeast strains. We tested whether insect vectors are more attracted to killer yeasts than to non‑killer yeasts. In our field experiment, we found that killer yeasts were more attractive to Drosophila than non‐killer yeasts. This suggests that vectors foraging on yeast are more likely to transmit yeast with a killer phenotype, allowing the viruses to colonize those uninfected yeast strains that engage in sexual reproduction with the killer yeast. Beyond insights into the basic ecology of the killer yeast system, our results suggest that viruses could increase transmission success by manipulating the insect vectors of their host.     

Connectivity of Marine Protected Areas and Its Relation with Total Kinetic Energy

The East Continental Shelf (ECS) of Brazil is a hotspot of endemism and biodiversity of reef biota in the South Atlantic, hosting a number of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Connectivity of MPAs through larval dispersal influences recruitment, population dynamics, genetic structure and biogeography in coral reef ecosystems. Connectivity of protected reef ecosystem in the ECS was investigated with a hydrodynamic model (ROMS) forcing an Individual Based Model (IBM—Ichthyop), and used groupers (genus Mycteroperca) as functional group. The hydrodynamic output from ROMS was compared with satellite data and showed good agreement with observed surface fields. Eggs were released, in IBM experiments, from April to September along six years (2002–2007) in five MPAs along the ECS. Intrannual variability in recruitment and self-recruitment of grouper larvae was observed, as well as a negative correlation of these population parameters with total Kinetic Energy (KE) used as a metric of the physical environment. Higher KE leads to increased offshore advection of larvae, reduced total recruitment and connectivity of MPAs. Our results indicate high and uni-directional connectivity between MPAs from north to south influenced by the Brazil Current flowing in the same direction. Results also showed that some MPAs act predominantly as “sink” while others are mainly “source” areas.     

Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance

Species associated with transient habitats need efficient dispersal strategies to ensure their regional survival. Using a spatially explicit metapopulation model, we studied the effect of the dispersal range on the persistence of a metapopulation as a function of the local population and landscape dynamics (including habitat patch destruction and subsequent regeneration). Our results show that the impact of the dispersal range depends on both the local population and patch growth. This is due to interactions between dispersal and the dynamics of patches and populations via the number of potential dispersers. In general, long-range dispersal had a positive effect on persistence in a dynamic landscape compared to short-range dispersal. Long-range dispersal increases the number of couplings between the patches and thus the colonisation of regenerated patches. However, long-range dispersal lost its advantage for long-term persistence when the number of potential dispersers was low due to small population growth rates and/or small patch growth rates. Its advantage also disappeared with complex local population dynamics and in a landscape with clumped patch distribution.     

Spatial Heterogeneity in Habitat Quality and Cross-Scale Interactions in Metapopulations

Abstract Integration of habitat heterogeneity into spatially realistic metapopulation approaches reveals the potential for key cross-scale interactions. Broad-scale environmental gradients and land-use practices can create autocorrelation of habitat quality of suitable patches at intermediate spatial scales. Patch occupancy then depends not only on habitat quality at the patch scale but also on feedbacks from surrounding neighborhoods of autocorrelated patches. Metapopulation dynamics emerge from how demographic and dispersal processes interact with relevant habitat heterogeneity. We provide an empirical example from a metapopulation of round-tailed muskrats (Neofiber alleni) in which habitat quality of suitable patches was spatially autocorrelated most strongly within 1,000 m, which was within the expected dispersal range of the species. After controlling for factors typically considered in metapopulation studies—patch size, local patch quality, patch connectivity—we use a cross-variogram analysis to demonstrate that patch occupancy by muskrats was correlated with habitat quality across scales ≤1,171 m. We also discuss general consequences of spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality for metapopulations related to potential cross-scale interactions. We focus on spatially correlated extinctions and metapopulation persistence, hierarchical scaling of source–sink dynamics, and dispersal decisions by individuals in relation to information constraints.     

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks. Using numerical studies of a population with discrete generations (buttressed by analytic results), we show that temporal variation and moderate dispersal can jointly permit indefinite persistence of the metapopulation and that positive autocorrelation both lowers the magnitude of variation required for persistence and increases the average abundance of persisting metapopulations. These effects are weakened--but not destroyed--if variation in local growth rates is spatially synchronized and dispersal is localized. We show that the inflationary effect is robust to a number of extensions of the basic model, including demographic stochasticity and density dependence. Because ecological and environmental processes contributing to temporally variable growth rates in natural populations are typically autocorrelated, these observations may have important implications for species persistence.     

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes: significant interactions between genetic and demographic processes

We formulated a mathematical model in order to study the joint influence of demographic and genetic processes on metapopulation viability. Moreover, we explored the influence of habitat structure, matrix quality and disturbance on the interplay of these processes. We showed that the conditions that allow metapopulation persistence under the synergistic action of genetic and demographic processes depart significantly from predictions based on a mere superposition of the effects of each process separately. Moreover, an optimal dispersal rate exists that maximizes the range of survival rates of dispersers under which metapopulation persists and at the same time allows the largest sustainable patch removal and patch‐size reduction. The relative impact of patch removal and patch‐size reduction depends both on matrix quality and the dispersal strategy of the species: metapopulation persistence is more affected by patch‐size reduction (patch removal) for low (high)‐dispersing species, in presence of a low (high) quality matrix. Avoidance of inbreeding, through increased dispersal when the rate of inbreeding in a population is large, has positive effects on low‐dispersing species, but impairs the persistence of high‐dispersing species. Finally, size heterogeneity between patches largely influences metapopulation dynamics; the presence of large patches, even at the expense of other patches being smaller, can have positive effects on persistence in particular for species of low dispersing ability.     

Demography in relation to population density in two herbivorous marsupials: testing for source–sink dynamics versus independent regulation of population size

We compared demography of populations along gradients of population density in two medium-sized herbivorous marsupials, the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula and the rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens, to test for net dispersal from high density populations (acting as sources) to low density populations (sinks). In both species, population density was positively related to soil fertility, and variation in soil fertility produced large differences in population density of contiguous populations. We predicted that if source–sink dynamics were operating over this density gradient, we should find higher immigration rates in low-density populations, and positive relationships of measures of individual fitness—body condition, reproductive output, juvenile growth rates and survivorship—to population density. This was predicted because under source–sink dynamics, immigration from high-density sites would hold population density above carrying capacity in low-density sites. The study included 13 populations of these two species, representing a more than 50-fold range of density for each species, but we found that individual fitness, immigration rates and population turnover were similar in all populations. We conclude that net dispersal from high to low density populations had little influence on population dynamics in these species; rather, all populations appeared to be independently regulated at carrying capacity, with a balanced exchange of dispersers among populations. These two species have suffered recent reductions in range, and they are ecologically similar to other species that have declined to extinction in inland Australia. It has been argued that part of the cause of the vulnerability of species like these is that they exhibit source–sink dynamics, and disturbance to source habitats can therefore cause large-scale population collapses. The results of our study argue against this interpretation.     

Spatiotemporal allozyme variation in the damselfly, Lestes viridis (Odonata: Zygoptera): gene flow among permanent and temporary ponds

Several insect species seem to persist not only in permanent but also in temporary ponds where they face particularly harsh conditions and frequent extinctions. Under such conditions, gene flow may prevent local adaptation to temporary ponds and may promote phenotypic plasticity, or maintain apparent population persistence. The few empirical studies on insects suggest the latter mechanism, but no studies so far quantified gene flow including both pond types. We investigated the effects of pond type and temporal variation on population genetic differentiation and gene flow in the damselfly Lestes viridis in northern Belgium. We report a survey of two allozyme loci (Gpi, Pgm) with polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis in 14 populations from permanent and temporary ponds, and compared these results with similar data from the same permanent populations one year before. The data suggested that neither pond-drying regime, nor temporal variation have a substantial effect on population genetic structuring and did not provide evidence for stable population differentiation in L. viridis in northern Belgium. Gene flow estimates were high within permanent and temporary ponds, and between pond types. Our data are consistent with a source-sink metapopulation system where temporary ponds act as sinks in dry years, and are quickly recolonized after local population extinction. This may create a pattern of apparent population persistence of this species in permanent and temporary ponds without clear local adaptation.     

Spatiotemporal allozyme variation in the damselfly, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Lestes viridis</Emphasis> (Odonata: Zygoptera): gene flow among permanent and temporary ponds

Several insect species seem to persist not only in permanent but also in temporary ponds where they face particularly harsh conditions and frequent extinctions. Under such conditions, gene flow may prevent local adaptation to temporary ponds and may promote phenotypic plasticity, or maintain apparent population persistence. The few empirical studies on insects suggest the latter mechanism, but no studies so far quantified gene flow including both pond types. We investigated the effects of pond type and temporal variation on population genetic differentiation and gene flow in the damselfly Lestes viridis in northern Belgium. We report a survey of two allozyme loci (Gpi, Pgm) with polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis in 14 populations from permanent and temporary ponds, and compared these results with similar data from the same permanent populations one year before. The data suggested that neither pond-drying regime, nor temporal variation have a substantial effect on population genetic structuring and did not provide evidence for stable population differentiation in L. viridis in northern Belgium. Gene flow estimates were high within permanent and temporary ponds, and between pond types. Our data are consistent with a source-sink metapopulation system where temporary ponds act as sinks in dry years, and are quickly recolonized after local population extinction. This may create a pattern of apparent population persistence of this species in permanent and temporary ponds without clear local adaptation.     

The influence of stage-dependent dispersal on the population dynamics of three amphipod species

In metapopulations, the maintenance of local populations can depend on source–sink dynamics, where populations with positive growth rate seed populations with negative growth rate. The pattern and probability of successful dispersal among habitats can therefore be crucial in determining whether local populations will become rare or increase in abundance. We present here data on the dispersal strategy and population dynamics of three marine amphipods living in pen shells (Atrina rigida) in the Gulf of Mexico. The three amphipod species in this study disperse at different life stages. Neomegamphopus hiatus and Melita nitida disperse as adults, while Bemlos unicornis disperses as juveniles. The two species that disperse as adults have the highest initial population sizes when a new shell becomes available, likely caused by the arriving females releasing their brood into these recently occupied shells. This dispersal pattern results in initially higher population growth, but fewer occupied shells, as noted by their clumped distribution. In contrast, the species that disperses as juveniles accumulates more slowly and more evenly across habitats, eventually dominating the other two in terms of numerical abundance. The metapopulation dynamics of the three species seems to be highly dependent on the life history stage involved in dispersal. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Seed bank dynamics govern persistence of Brassica hybrids in crop and natural habitats

Background and Aims Gene flow from crops to their wild relatives has the potential to alter population growth rates and demography of hybrid populations, especially when a new crop has been genetically modified (GM). This study introduces a comprehensive approach to assess this potential for altered population fitness, and uses a combination of demographic data in two habitat types and mathematical (matrix) models that include crop rotations and outcrossing between parental species.Methods Full life-cycle demographic rates, including seed bank survival, of non-GM Brassica rapa × B. napus F₁ hybrids and their parent species were estimated from experiments in both agricultural and semi-natural habitats. Altered fitness potential was modelled using periodic matrices including crop rotations and outcrossing between parent species.Key Results The demographic vital rates (i.e. for major stage transitions) of the hybrid population were intermediate between or lower than both parental species. The population growth rate (λ) of hybrids indicated decreases in both habitat types, and in a semi-natural habitat hybrids became extinct at two sites. Elasticity analyses indicated that seed bank survival was the greatest contributor to λ. In agricultural habitats, hybrid populations were projected to decline, but with persistence times up to 20 years. The seed bank survival rate was the main driver determining persistence. It was found that λ of the hybrids was largely determined by parental seed bank survival and subsequent replenishment of the hybrid population through outcrossing of B. rapa with B. napus.Conclusions Hybrid persistence was found to be highly dependent on the seed bank, suggesting that targeting hybrid seed survival could be an important management option in controlling hybrid persistence. For local risk mitigation, an increased focus on the wild parent is suggested. Management actions, such as control of B. rapa, could indirectly reduce hybrid populations by blocking hybrid replenishment.     

Living with Aliens: Effects of Invasive Shrub Honeysuckles on Avian Nesting

Invasive species have come to the forefront of conservation biology as a major threat to native biodiversity. Habitats dominated by shrub honeysuckles (Lonicera spp.) in the United States have been characterized as “ecological traps” by ecologists. Here we tested this hypothesis by investigating the effects of shrub honeysuckles on the nesting ecology of native birds in seven study sites in central Pennsylvania, USA. We examined how the abundance of shrub honeysuckles influenced the selection of nesting substrates and habitat for a community of common songbirds, and the parental-care behavior and nestling development of gray catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis). We found that birds had a strong bias towards nesting in honeysuckle shrubs, but not necessarily for nesting in honeysuckle-dominated habitats. Nest predation rates were affected by the density of nests in a habitat, but not by the overall abundance of honeysuckles in such habitats. Honeysuckle abundance in the habitat did show significant effects on some parental-care behavioral parameters: catbirds had higher nest visitation rates and shorter visit lengths in areas of high honeysuckle density. On average, Gray catbirds fed fruit 12%±0.31 s.e. of their nestling-feeding bouts, mostly fruits of shrub honeysuckles. Nestlings in sites with high honeysuckle density also showed higher mass:tarsus ratios, suggesting a good (possibly better) physiological condition of catbird nestlings at the time of fledging. Our study shows that honeysuckle-dominated habitats could have equivocal effects on nesting parameters of common species of native birds. We advise more caution in the widespread denomination of novel plant communities with high densities of honeysuckle as “ecological traps” as effects can be null or positive on native birds in certain localities.     

Evolution of reproductive effort in a metapopulation with local extinctions and ecological succession

Abstract Using a metapopulation model, we study how local extinctions, limited population life span, and local demographic disequilibrium affect the evolution of the reproductive effort in a species with overlapping generations but no senescence. We show that in a metapopulation with saturation of all sites and an infinite deme maximal life span (no succession), local extinctions simply constitute an additional source of extrinsic mortality. When either the hypothesis of an infinite deme maximal life span or the saturation hypothesis is relaxed, nontrivial predictions arise. in particular, we find interactions between the evolutionarily stable reproductive effort strategy and the demographic dynamics in the metapopulation. We predict that larger reproductive effort may be selected for in habitats of poorer productivity, contrary to what would be predicted in a single population. Also, we predict that higher dispersal rates should favor selection for lower reproductive efforts. However, metapopulation parameters that favor high dispersal rates also favor larger reproductive efforts. Conflicting selection pressures in the metapopulation also allow maintaining evolutionarily stable polymorphism between a low and high reproductive effort for particular trade-offs between survival and fecundity.     

Trait flexibility of generalist invertebrates exposed to contrasting predation and drying stressors

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Assessment of Survival and Body Size Variation of Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as Functions of “Candidatus Cardinium” (Bacteroidetes) Infection Status

“Candidatus Cardinium hertigii” (Bacteroidetes) is a maternally inherited endosymbiont known from several arthropods. Its mechanisms for persistence in host populations are mostly reproductive manipulation, though it has been occasionally reported to improve fitness parameters in several hosts. In Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, the prevalence of “Candidatus Cardinium” infection was documented as moderate, with no detectable sex bias. We therefore investigated whether “Candidatus Cardinium” affects important fitness parameters, such as survival and body size, in Culicoides imicola, a dominant vector species. Field-collected midges were trapped and analyzed for survival under different environmental conditions and antibiotic treatment, taking into account “Candidatus Cardinium” infection status and parity status (i.e., parous or nulliparous). Additionally, wing lengths were measured as a proxy parameter for body size and analyzed together with “Candidatus Cardinium” infection data. The findings revealed no difference in survival of Culicoides infected with “Candidatus Cardinium” and that of uninfected midges in both parity states and under all tested conditions: optimal, starvation, heat, and antibiotic treatment. Beyond survival, no wing length difference was found for “Candidatus Cardinium”-infected versus uninfected midges. In aggregate, these findings support our conclusion that “Candidatus Cardinium” does not have an overt effect on the survival and size of adult C. imicola midges. “Candidatus Cardinium” may affect immature stages or may alter adult reproductive performance.     

Regeneration of Cyperaceae, with particular reference to seed ecology and seed banks

Cyperaceae (sedges) are an important component of many ecosystems. To understand better their regeneration, we examined seed ecology, including dispersal, seed characteristics, and germination behavior that relate to seed bank development and persistence. We also evaluated sedge seed banks from 104 studies, representing a wide array of habitats. Sedge seed bank development and persistence were associated with germination and dormancy traits, namely: dormancy level, seasonal dormancy patterns, and requirement for light, alternating temperatures, and aerobic conditions. Interplay of traits appears to have resulted in low-risk germination strategies adapted to exploit infrequent occurrence of gaps and facilitate formation of persistent seed banks. A variety of dispersal modes and morphological adaptations occurred, but many species had no apparent specialized structures. The main dispersal vectors were water and then animals. About 216 species, in 21 genera, were recorded in the seed bank survey. High densities (>50,000 m⁻²) occurred occasionally in wet habitats, but generally values were low (<500 m⁻² in 70% of entries). Species richness was also generally low (mean 4.8 species study⁻¹), but ranged from 10 to 33 species in certain wetlands. Our studies showed varied reproductive strategies within habitats, persistence, and ability of many species to colonize disturbed habitats. Overall, seed banks tended to be persistent (>1 year). Maximum longevity ranged between 10 and 295 years, but for certain species viability was lost in <3 years. Seeds of many sedges occurred in deeper soil layers to depths >1 m. Seed production, low in rhizomatous species, ranged between 0 and 345,000 seeds m⁻² year⁻¹. Amphicarpy or pseudo-viviparous plantlets occurred in limited numbers of species. The relation between seed production, seed rain, and seed bank is largely obscure and awaits further investigation. For successful restoration and species conservation projects, seed banks (or a source of seeds) are necessary, combined with suitable germination and establishment conditions. Future seed bank studies are considered.     

Dormancy, dispersal and the survival of cyclopoid copepods (Cyclopoida, Copepoda) in a lowland floodplain

1. The survival of cyclopoid copepods was investigated in a floodplain for 2 years where flooding occurred during the cold season. The cyclopoid community was studied in three waterbodies with distinct hydroperiods: a permanent pond connected to the flooded area during inundation, a temporary pool that is part of the flooded area and an isolated temporary pool.
2. Field studies, including data obtained from samples of water, sediment and soil, showed the overall predominance of species with a summer diapause over those with a winter diapause or without diapause. Emergence of cyclopoid copepods at the onset of flooding, examined using emergence traps and data from recently filled or still isolated temporary pools, showed that some species can survive several months of drying.
3. The ability of the diapausing fourth copepodid stages of Cyclops strenuus and C. insignis , the two cyclopoids most abundant during winter and spring flooding, to survive terrestrial conditions was tested in laboratory experiments. Both species survived for several months, but rates differed among the species. A higher percentage of C. strenuus survived for a longer period, possibly explaining why this species was relatively more abundant in more temporary habitats.
4. Both dormancy and dispersal facilitated survival of cyclopoid copepods in transient habitats connected to each other during flood periods. Dormancy was the most important survival strategy, whereas dispersal could be more important following prolonged periods without flooding.     

Characteristics and Drivers of High-Altitude Ladybird Flight: Insights from Vertical-Looking Entomological Radar

Understanding the characteristics and drivers of dispersal is crucial for predicting population dynamics, particularly in range-shifting species. Studying long-distance dispersal in insects is challenging, but recent advances in entomological radar offer unique insights. We analysed 10 years of radar data collected at Rothamsted Research, U.K., to investigate characteristics (altitude, speed, seasonal and annual trends) and drivers (aphid abundance, air temperature, wind speed and rainfall) of high-altitude flight of the two most abundant U.K. ladybird species (native Coccinella septempunctata and invasive Harmonia axyridis). These species cannot be distinguished in the radar data since their reflectivity signals overlap, and they were therefore analysed together. However, their signals do not overlap with other, abundant insects so we are confident they constitute the overwhelming majority of the analysed data. The target species were detected up to ∼1100 m above ground level, where displacement speeds of up to ∼60 km/h were recorded, however most ladybirds were found between ∼150 and 500 m, and had a mean displacement of 30 km/h. Average flight time was estimated, using tethered flight experiments, to be 36.5 minutes, but flights of up to two hours were observed. Ladybirds are therefore potentially able to travel 18 km in a “typical” high-altitude flight, but up to 120 km if flying at higher altitudes, indicating a high capacity for long-distance dispersal. There were strong seasonal trends in ladybird abundance, with peaks corresponding to the highest temperatures of mid-summer, and warm air temperature was the key driver of ladybird flight. Climatic warming may therefore increase the potential for long-distance dispersal in these species. Low aphid abundance was a second significant factor, highlighting the important role of aphid population dynamics in ladybird dispersal. This research illustrates the utility of radar for studying high-altitude insect flight and has important implications for predicting long-distance dispersal.