Costs and Consequences of Using Interferon-γ Release Assays for the Diagnosis of Active Tuberculosis in India

Background

There is growing concern that interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) are being used off-label for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) disease in many high-burden settings, including India, where the background prevalence of latent TB infection is high. We analyzed the costs and consequences of using IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India from the perspective of the Indian TB control sector.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a decision analytic model to estimate the incremental cost and effectiveness of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India. We compared a reference scenario of clinical examination and non-microbiological tests against scenarios in which clinical diagnosis was augmented by the addition of either sputum smear microscopy, IGRA, or Xpert MTB/RIF. We examined costs (in 2013 US dollars) and consequences from the perspective of the Indian healthcare sector. Relative to sputum smear microscopy, use of IGRA for active TB resulted in 23,700 (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3,800 – 38,300) additional true-positive diagnoses, but at the expense of 315,700 (95% UR: 118,300 – 388,400) additional false-positive diagnoses and an incremental cost of US$49.3 million (95% UR: $34.9 – $58.0 million) (2.9 billion Indian Rupees). Relative to Xpert MTB/RIF (including the cost of treatment for drug resistant TB), use of IGRA led to 400 additional TB cases treated (95% UR: [-8,000] – 16,200), 370,600 (95% UR: 252,200 – 441,700) more false-positive diagnoses, 70,400 (95% UR: [-7,900] – 247,200) fewer disability-adjusted life years averted, and US$14.6 million (95%UR: [-$7.2] – $28.7 million) (854 million Indian Rupees) in additional costs.

Conclusion

Using IGRAs for diagnosis of active TB in a setting like India results in tremendous overtreatment of people without TB, and substantial incremental cost with little gain in health. These results support the policies by WHO and Standards for TB Care in India, which discourage the use of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India and similar settings.     

Population-Level Impact of Active Tuberculosis Case Finding in an Asian Megacity

Background

The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB) case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects.

Methods

We constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis), or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario). We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years.

Results

In the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30%) of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57%) of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17%) and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%), although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention.

Conclusions

Sustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact.     

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa

Background

A 4-month first-line treatment regimen for tuberculosis disease (TB) is expected to have a direct impact on patient outcomes and societal costs, as well as an indirect impact on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to estimate this combined impact in a high TB-burden country: South Africa.

Method

An individual based M. tb transmission model was fitted to the TB burden of South Africa using a standard TB natural history framework. We measured the impact on TB burden from 2015–2035 of introduction of a non-inferior 4-month regimen replacing the standard 6-month regimen as first-line therapy. Impact was measured with respect to three separate baselines (Guidelines, Policy and Current), reflecting differences in adherence to TB and HIV treatment guidelines. Further scenario analyses considered the variation in treatment-related parameters and resistance levels. Impact was measured in terms of differences in TB burden and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted. We also examined the highest cost at which the new regimen would be cost-effective for several willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Results

It was estimated that a 4-month regimen would avert less than 1% of the predicted 6 million person years with TB disease in South Africa between 2015 and 2035. A similarly small impact was seen on deaths and DALYs averted. Despite this small impact, with the health systems and patient cost savings from regimen shortening, the 4-month regimen could be cost-effective at $436 [NA, 5983] (mean [range]) per month at a willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP per capita ($6,618).

Conclusion

The introduction of a non-inferior 4-month first-line TB regimen into South Africa would have little impact on the TB burden. However, under several scenarios, it is likely that the averted societal costs would make such a regimen cost-effective in South Africa.     

Population-Level Impact of Same-Day Microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF for Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Africa

Objective

To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).

Methods

We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.

Findings

Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.

Conclusion

Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa.     

Projections of the Current and Future Disease Burden of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Malaysia

Background

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.

Methods

An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.

Results

In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.

Conclusions

The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.     

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Reduce HIV-1 and HSV-2 Incidence in HIV-Serodiscordant Couples in South Africa

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of daily oral tenofovir-based PrEP, with a protective effect against HSV-2 as well as HIV-1, among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.

Methods

We incorporated HSV-2 acquisition, transmission, and interaction with HIV-1 into a microsimulation model of heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa, with use of PrEP for the HIV-1 uninfected partner prior to ART initiation for the HIV-1 1infected partner, and for one year thereafter.

Results

We estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for two scenarios, one in which PrEP has no effect on reducing HSV-2 acquisition, and one in which there is a 33% reduction. After a twenty-year intervention, the cost per DALY averted is estimated to be $10,383 and $9,757, respectively – a 6% reduction, given the additional benefit of reduced HSV-2 acquisition. If all couples are discordant for both HIV-1 and HSV-2, the cost per DALY averted falls to $1,445, which shows that the impact is limited by HSV-2 concordance in couples.

Conclusion

After a 20-year PrEP intervention, the cost per DALY averted with a reduction in HSV-2 is estimated to be modestly lower than without any effect, providing an increase of health benefits in addition to HIV-1 prevention at no extra cost. The small degree of the effect is in part due to a high prevalence of HSV-2 infection in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.     

Prevalence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis among Prison Inmates in Ethiopia,a Cross-Sectional Study

Setting

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major health problems in prisons.

Objective

This study was done to assess the prevalence and determinants of active tuberculosis in Ethiopian prisons.

Design

A cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2013 to December 2013 in 13 zonal prisons. All incarcerated inmates underwent TB symptom screening according to WHO criteria. From identified TB-suspects two sputum samples were analyzed using smear microscopy and solid culture. A standardized questionnaire assessing TB risk factors was completed for each TB suspect.

Results

765 (4.9%) TB suspects were identified among 15,495 inmates. 51 suspects were already on anti-TB treatment (6.67%) and 20 (2.8%) new culture-confirmed TB cases were identified in the study, resulting in an overall TB prevalence of 458.1/100,000 (95%CI: 350-560/100,000). Risk factors for active TB were alcohol consumption, contact with a TB case before incarceration and no window in prison cell. HIV prevalence was not different between TB suspects and active TB cases. Further, the TB burden in prisons increased with advancing distance from the capital Addis Ababa.

Conclusions

The overall TB prevalence in Ethiopian prisons was high and extremely variable among different prisons. TB risk factors related to conditions of prison facilities and the impact of implemented TB control measures need to be further studied in order to improve TB control among inmates.     

Do We Need to Detect Isoniazid Resistance in Addition to Rifampicin Resistance in Diagnostic Tests for Tuberculosis?

Background

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is resistant to both rifampicin (RIF) and isoniazid (INH). Whereas many TB diagnostics detect RIF-resistance, few detect INH-monoresistance, which is common and may increase risk of acquired MDR-TB. Whether inclusion of INH-resistance in a first-line rapid test for TB would have an important impact on MDR-TB rates remains uncertain.

Methods

We developed a transmission model to evaluate three tests in a population similar to that of India: a rapid molecular test for TB, the same test plus RIF-resistance detection (“TB+RIF”), and detection of RIF and INH-resistance (“TB+RIF/INH”). Our primary outcome was the prevalence of INH-resistant and MDR-TB at ten years.

Results

Compared to the TB test alone and assuming treatment of all diagnosed MDR cases, the TB+RIF test reduced the prevalence of MDR-TB among all TB cases from 5.5% to 3.8% (30.6% reduction, 95% uncertainty range, UR: 17–54%). Despite using liberal assumptions about the impact of INH-monoresistance on treatment outcomes and MDR-TB acquisition, expansion from TB+RIF to TB+RIF/INH lowered this prevalence only from 3.8% to 3.6% further (4% reduction, 95% UR: 3–7%) and INH-monoresistant TB from 15.8% to 15.1% (4% reduction, 95% UR: (-8)-19%).

Conclusion

When added to a rapid test for TB plus RIF-resistance, detection of INH-resistance has minimal impact on transmission of TB, MDR-TB, and INH-monoresistant TB.     

Comparative Meta-Analysis of Tuberculosis Contact Investigation Interventions in Eleven High Burden Countries

Background

Screening of household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) patients is a recommended strategy to improve early case detection. While it has been widely implemented in low prevalence countries, the most optimal protocols for contact investigation in high prevalence, low resource settings is yet to be determined. This study evaluated contact investigation interventions in eleven lower and middle income countries and reviewed the association between context or program-related factors and the yield of cases among contacts.

Methods

We reviewed data from nineteen first wave TB REACH funded projects piloting innovations to improve case detection. These nineteen had fulfilled the eligibility criteria: contact investigation implementation and complete data reporting. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the percentage yield and case notifications for each project. Implementation strategies were delineated and the association between independent variables and yield was analyzed by fitting a random effects logistic regression.

Findings

Overall, the nineteen interventions screened 139,052 household contacts, showing great heterogeneity in the percentage yield of microscopy confirmed cases (SS+), ranging from 0.1% to 6.2%). Compared to the most restrictive testing criteria (at least two weeks of cough) the aOR’s for lesser (any TB related symptom) and least (all contacts) restrictive testing criteria were 1.71 (95%CI 0.94−3.13) and 6.90 (95% CI 3.42−13.93) respectively. The aOR for inclusion of SS- and extra-pulmonary TB was 0.31 (95% CI 0.15−0.62) compared to restricting index cases to SS+ TB. Contact investigation contributed between <1% and 14% to all SS+ cases diagnosed in the intervention areas.

Conclusions

This study confirms that high numbers of active TB cases can be identified through contact investigation in a variety of contexts. However, design and program implementation factors appear to influence the yield of contact investigation and its concomitant contribution to TB case detection.     

Isoniazid Prophylactic Therapy for the Prevention of Tuberculosis in HIV Infected Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

Background

Infection with Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an important risk factor for Tuberculosis (TB). Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) has improved the prognosis of HIV and reduced the risk of TB infected patients. Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) aims to reduce the development of active TB in patients with latent TB.

Objective

Systematically review and synthesize effect estimates of IPT for TB prevention in adult HIV patients. Secondary objectives were to assess the effect of IPT on HIV disease progression, all-cause mortality and adverse drug reaction (ADR).

Search Strategy

Electronic databases were searched to identify relevant articles in English available by September 11^th 2015.

Selection Criteria

Research articles comparing IPT to placebo or no treatment in HIV infected adults using randomized clinical trials.

Data Analysis

A qualitative review included study-level information on randomization and treatment allocation. Effect estimates were pooled using random-effects models to account for between-study heterogeneity.

Main Results

This review assessed ten randomized clinical trials that assigned 7619 HIV patients to IPT or placebo. An overall 35% of TB risk reduction (RR = 0.65, 95% CI (0.51, 0.84)) was found in all participants, however, larger benefit of IPT was observed in Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) positive participants, with pooled relative risk reduction of 52% [RR = 0.48; 95% CI (0.29, 0.82)] and with a prediction interval ranging from 0.13 to 1.81. There was no statistically significant effect of IPT on TB occurrence in TST negative or unknown participants. IPT also reduced the risk of HIV disease progression in all participants (RR = 0.69; 95% CI (0.48, 0.99)) despite no benefits observed in TST strata. All-cause mortality was not affected by IPT although participants who had 12 months of IPT tend to have a reduced risk (RR = 0.65; 95% CI(0.47, 0.90)). IPT had an elevated, yet statistically non-significant, risk of adverse drug reaction [RR = 1.20; 95% CI (1.20, 1.71)]. Only a single study assessed the effect of IPT in combination with ART in preventing TB and occurrence of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis.

Conclusions

IPT use substantially contributes in preventing TB in persons with HIV in general and in TST positive individuals in particular. More evidence is needed to explain discrepancies in the protective effect of IPT in these individuals.     

TB Treatment Delays in Odisha,India: Is It Expected Even after These Many Years of RNTCP Implementation?

Background

In India, the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) envisages initiation of TB treatment within seven days of diagnosis among smear-positive patients. After nearly two decades of RNTCP implementation, treatment delays are usually not expected.

Objectives

To determine the proportion of sputum smear-positive TB patients who were initiated on treatment after seven days and their associated risk factors.

Methods

The study was conducted in Cuttack and Rayagada districts of Odisha. It was a retrospective cohort study that involves review of TB treatment registers and laboratory registers for 2013.

Results

Among 1,800 pulmonary TB (PTB) patients, 1,074 (60%) had been initiated on treatment within seven days of diagnosis, 721 (40%) had been initiated on treatment more than seven days, and 354 (20%) had delays of more than 15 days. The mean duration between TB diagnosis and treatment initiation was 21 days with a range of 8–207 days (median = 14 days). Odds of treatment delay of more than seven days were 4.9 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.3-6.6) among those who had been previously treated, 6.2 times (95% CI 1.3-29.7) among those infected with HIV, and 1.8 times (95% CI 1.1-2.9) among those diagnosed outside district DMC.

Conclusion

Delay in initiation of TB treatment occurred in majority of the smear-positive patients. The RNTCP should focus on core areas of providing quality TB services with time-tested strategies. To have real-time monitoring mechanisms for diagnosed smear-positive TB patients is expected to be the way forward.     

Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases: How Much Health Will Be Gained?

Background

The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs).

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated.

Principle Findings/Conclusions

Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts.     

Comparing the Factors Correlated with Tuberculosis-Specific and Non-Tuberculosis-Specific Deaths in Different Age Groups among Tuberculosis-Related Deaths in Taiwan

Background

Nearly 20% of tuberculosis (TB) patients die within one year, and TB-related mortality rates remain high in Taiwan. The study aimed to identify factors correlated with TB-specific deaths versus non-TB-specific deaths in different age groups among TB-related mortalities.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2006-2008 with newly registered TB patients receiving follow-up for 1 year. The national TB database from the Taiwan-CDC was linked with the National Vital Registry System and the National Health Insurance database. A chi-squared test and logistic regression were used to analyse the correlated factors related to TB-specific and non-TB-specific deaths in different age groups.

Results

Elderly age (odds ratio [OR] 2.68-8.09), Eastern residence (OR 2.01), positive sputum bacteriology (OR 2.54), abnormal chest X-ray (OR 2.28), and comorbidity with chronic kidney disease (OR 2.35), stroke (OR 1.74) or chronic liver disease (OR 1.29) were most likely to be the cause of TB-specific deaths, whereas cancer (OR 0.79) was less likely to be implicated. For non-TB-specific deaths in patients younger than 65 years of age, male sex (OR 2.04) and comorbidity with HIV (OR 5.92), chronic kidney disease (OR 8.02), stroke (OR 3.75), cancer (OR 9.79), chronic liver disease (OR 2.71) or diabetes mellitus (OR 1.38) were risk factors.

Conclusions

Different factors correlated with TB-specific deaths compared with non-TB-specific deaths, and the impact of comorbidities gradually decreased as age increased. To reduce TB-specific mortality, special consideration for TB patients with old age, Eastern residence, positive sputum bacteriology and comorbidity with chronic kidney disease or stroke is crucial. In particular, Eastern residence increased the risk of TB-specific death in all age groups. In terms of TB deaths among patients younger than 65 years of age, patients with HIV, chronic kidney disease or cancer had a 6-10 times increased risk of non-TB-specific deaths.     

Do Instructional Videos on Sputum Submission Result in Increased Tuberculosis Case Detection? A Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective

We examined the effect of an instructional video about the production of diagnostic sputum on case detection of tuberculosis (TB), and evaluated the acceptance of the video.

Trial Design

Randomized controlled trial.

Methods

We prepared a culturally adapted instructional video for sputum submission. We analyzed 200 presumptive TB cases coughing for more than two weeks who attended the outpatient department of the governmental Municipal Hospital in Mwananyamala (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania). They were randomly assigned to either receive instructions on sputum submission using the video before submission (intervention group, n = 100) or standard of care (control group, n = 100). Sputum samples were examined for volume, quality and presence of acid-fast bacilli by experienced laboratory technicians blinded to study groups.

Results

Median age was 39.1 years (interquartile range 37.0–50.0); 94 (47%) were females, 106 (53%) were males, and 49 (24.5%) were HIV-infected. We found that the instructional video intervention was associated with detection of a higher proportion of microscopically confirmed cases (56%, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 45.7–65.9%, sputum smear positive patients in the intervention group versus 23%, 95% CI 15.2–32.5%, in the control group, p <0.0001), an increase in volume of specimen defined as a volume ≥3ml (78%, 95% CI 68.6–85.7%, versus 45%, 95% CI 35.0–55.3%, p <0.0001), and specimens less likely to be salivary (14%, 95% CI 7.9–22.4%, versus 39%, 95% CI 29.4–49.3%, p = 0.0001). Older age, but not the HIV status or sex, modified the effectiveness of the intervention by improving it positively. When asked how well the video instructions were understood, the majority of patients in the intervention group reported to have understood the video instructions well (97%). Most of the patients thought the video would be useful in the cultural setting of Tanzania (92%).

Conclusions

Sputum submission instructional videos increased the yield of tuberculosis cases through better quality of sputum samples. If confirmed in larger studies, instructional videos may have a substantial effect on the case yield using sputum microscopy and also molecular tests. This low-cost strategy should be considered as part of the efforts to control TB in resource-limited settings.

Trial Registration

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201504001098231     

Half of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Cases Were Left Undiagnosed in Prisons of the Tigray Region of Ethiopia: Implications for Tuberculosis Control

Introduction

Prison settings have been often identified as important but neglected reservoirs for TB. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of undiagnosed pulmonary TB and assess the potential risk factors for such TB cases in prisons of the Tigray region.

Method

A cross-sectional study was conducted between August 2013 and February 2014 in nine prisons. A standardized symptom-based questionnaire was initially used to identify presumptive TB cases. From each, three consecutive sputum samples were collected for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy and culture. Blood samples were collected from consented participants for HIV testing.

Result

Out of 809 presumptive TB cases with culture result, 4.0% (95% CI: 2.65–5.35) were confirmed to have undiagnosed TB. The overall estimated point prevalence of undiagnosed TB was found to be 505/100,000 prisoners (95% CI: 360–640). Together with the 27 patients who were already on treatment, the overall estimated point prevalence of TB would be 793/100,000 prisoners (95% CI: 610–970), about four times higher than in the general population. The ratio of active to passive case detection was 1.18:1. The prevalence of HIV was 4.4% (36/809) among presumptive TB cases and 6.3% (2/32) among undiagnosed TB cases. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, chewing Khat (adjusted OR = 2.81; 95% CI: 1.02–7.75) and having had a close contact with a TB patient (adjusted OR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.05–4.51) were found to be predictors of undiagnosed TB among presumptive TB cases.

Conclusions

This study revealed that at least half of symptomatic pulmonary TB cases in Northern Ethiopian prisons remain undiagnosed and hence untreated. The prevalence of undiagnosed TB in the study prisons was more than two folds higher than in the general population of Tigray. This may indicate the need for more investment and commitment to improving TB case detection in the study prisons.     

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi,Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings

Introduction

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region.

Methods

In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries.

Results

The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243 ~ 9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi.

Conclusion

Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.     

Simulation as a New Tool to Establish Benchmark Outcome Measures in Obstetrics

Background

There are not enough clinical data from rare critical events to calculate statistics to decide if the management of actual events might be below what could reasonably be expected (i.e. was an outlier).

Objectives

In this project we used simulation to describe the distribution of management times as an approach to decide if the management of a simulated obstetrical crisis scenario could be considered an outlier.

Design

Twelve obstetrical teams managed 4 scenarios that were previously developed. Relevant outcome variables were defined by expert consensus. The distribution of the response times from the teams who performed the respective intervention was graphically displayed and median and quartiles calculated using rank order statistics.

Results

Only 7 of the 12 teams performed chest compressions during the arrest following the ‘cannot intubate/cannot ventilate’ scenario. All other outcome measures were performed by at least 11 of the 12 teams. Calculation of medians and quartiles with 95% CI was possible for all outcomes. Confidence intervals, given the small sample size, were large.

Conclusion

We demonstrated the use of simulation to calculate quantiles for management times of critical event. This approach could assist in deciding if a given performance could be considered normal and also point to aspects of care that seem to pose particular challenges as evidenced by a large number of teams not performing the expected maneuver. However sufficiently large sample sizes (i.e. from a national data base) will be required to calculate acceptable confidence intervals and to establish actual tolerance limits.     

Impact on Patients’ Treatment Outcomes of XpertMTB/RIF Implementation for the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis: Follow-Up of a Stepped-Wedge Randomized Clinical Trial

Introduction

The impact on treatment outcomes of XpertMTB/RIF, a molecular-based test that provides rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance with high accuracy, has not been reported despite its adoption in a few countries. We here report treatment outcomes in a step-wedged cluster randomized trial for patients diagnosed with XpertMTB/RIF compared to patients diagnosed with sputum smear examination in public health facilities in Brazil.

Methods

Treatment outcome data were added to the trial database of patients diagnosed from 4 February to 4 October 2012, and crosschecked with data from the national mortality and the drug-resistant TB registers. Treatment outcomes in the intervention (n=2232) and baseline (n=1856) arms were compared using a multilevel regression model.

Results

Unfavourable outcomes were frequent in both arms, mainly due to loss to follow-up (16%). Overall unfavourable outcomes were not reduced in the intervention arm (29.6% versus 31.7%, OR=0.93; 95%CI=0.79-1.08). However, the overall TB-attributed death rate was lower in the intervention arm (2.3% vs. 3.8%). Adjusted for HIV status, age group and city, the intervention resulted in a 35% decrease in TB-attributed deaths (OR=0.65, 95%CI=0.44-0.97).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients successfully treated did not increase with Xpert MTB/RIF implementation, with high loss to follow-up rates in both arms. We did observe a 35% reduction in TB-related mortality, which we hypothesize may be explained by less advanced disease among the smear-negative patients diagnosed by Xpert. In conclusion, XpertMTB/RIF introduction did not improve TB treatment outcomes in Brazil.

Trial Registration

clinicaltrials.gov NCT01363765     

Prevalence and Associated Factors of Diabetes Mellitus among Tuberculosis Patients in South-Eastern Amhara Region,Ethiopia: A Cross Sectional Study

Background

The association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and tuberculosis (TB) is re-emerging worldwide. Recently, the prevalence of DM is increasing in resource poor countries where TB is of high burden. The objective of the current study was to determine the prevalence and analyze associated factors of TB and DM comorbidity in South-Eastern Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Methods

This was a facility based cross-sectional study. All newly diagnosed TB patients attending selected health facilities in the study area were consecutively screened for DM. DM was diagnosed based on the World Health Organization diagnostic criteria. A pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic, lifestyles and clinical data. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with TB and DM comorbidity.

Result

Among a total of 1314 patients who participated in the study, the prevalence of DM was estimated at 109 (8.3%). Being female [odds ratio (OR) 1.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.10–2.62)], patients age [41–64 years (OR 3.35; 95% CI (2.01–5.57), 65–89 years (OR 3.18; 95% CI (1.52–6.64)], being a pulmonary TB case [(OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.09–2.63)] and having a family history of DM [(OR 4.54; 95% CI (2.36–8.73)] were associated factors identified with TB and DM comorbidity.

Conclusion

The prevalence of DM among TB patients in South-Eastern Amahra Region is high. Routine screening of TB patients for DM is recommended in the study area.