Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Introduction

Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.

Materials and Methods

We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.

Results

At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.

Discussion

Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda’s higher fertility rates.     

A Mathematical Model of the Tuberculosis Epidemic

Acta Biotheoretica - Tuberculosis has continued to retain its title as “the captain among these men of death”. This is evident as it is the leading cause of death globally from a single...     

Modeling Dynamic Introduction of Chikungunya Virus in the United States

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases.     

Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic

In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.     

Perceptions of Private Medical Practitioners on Tuberculosis Notification: A Study from Chennai,South India

Background

The Government of India declared TB as a notifiable disease in 2012. There is a paucity of information on the government''s mandatory TB notification order from the perspective of private medical practitioners (PPs).

Objective

To understand the awareness, perception and barriers on TB notification among PPs in Chennai, India.

Methods

Total of 190 PPs were approached in their clinics by trained field staff who collected data using a semi-structured and pre-coded questionnaire after getting informed consent. The data collected included PPs'' specialization, TB management practices, awareness about the TB notification order, barriers in its implementation and their suggestions to improve notification.

Results

Of 190 PPs from varied specializations, 138 (73%) had diagnosed TB cases in the prior three months, of whom 78% referred these patients to government facilities. Of 138 PPs, 73% were aware of the order on mandatory TB notification, of whom 46 (33%) had ever notified a TB case. Of 120 PPs, 63% reported reasons for not notifying TB cases. The main reasons reported for not notifying were lack of time (50%), concerns regarding patients'' confidentiality (24%) and fear of offending patients (11%). Of 145 PPs, 76% provided feedback about information they felt uncomfortable reporting during notification. PPs felt most uncomfortable reporting patient''s government-issued Aadhar number (77%), followed by patient''s phone number (37%) and residential address (26%). The preferred means of notification was through mobile phone communication (24%), SMS (18%) and e-mail (17%).

Conclusion

This study highlights that one-fourth of PPs were not aware of the TB notification order and not all those who were aware were notifying. While it is important to sensitize PPs on the importance of TB notification it is also important to understand the barriers faced by PPs and to make the process user-friendly in order to increase TB notification.     

Factors Associated with Tuberculosis and Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis amongst Symptomatic Patients in India: A Retrospective Analysis

Background

Tuberculosis remains a major public health challenge for India. Various studies have documented different levels of TB and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB among diverse groups of the population. In view of renewed targets set under the End TB strategy by 2035, there is an urgent need for TB diagnosis to be strengthened. Drawing on data from a recent, multisite study, we address key questions for TB diagnosis amongst symptomatics presenting for care: are there subgroups of patients that are more likely than others, to be positive for TB? In turn, amongst these positive cases, are there factors—apart from treatment history—that may be predictive for multi-drug resistance?

Methods

We used data from a multi-centric prospective demonstration study, conducted from March 2012 to December 2013 in 18 sub-district level TB programme units (TUs) in India and covering a population of 8.8 million. In place of standard diagnostic tests, upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing was offered to all presumptive TB symptomatics. Here, using data from this study, we used logistic regression to identify association between risk factors and TB and Rifampicin-Resistant TB among symptomatics enrolled in the study.

Results

We find that male gender; history of TB treatment; and adult age compared with either children or the elderly are risk factors associated with high TB detection amongst symptomatics, across the TUs. While treatment history is found be a significant risk factor for rifampicin-resistant TB, elderly (65+ yrs) people have significantly lower risk than other age groups. However, pediatric TB cases have no less risk of rifampicin resistance as compared with adults (OR 1.23 (95% C.I. 0.85–1.76)). Similarly, risk of rifampicin resistance among both the genders was the same. These patterns applied across the study sites involved. Notably in Mumbai, amongst those patients with microbiological confirmation of TB, female patients showed a higher risk of having MDR-TB than male patients.

Conclusion

Our results cast fresh light on the characteristics of symptomatics presenting for care who are most likely to be microbiologically positive for TB, and for rifampicin resistance. The challenges posed by TB control are complex and multifactorial: evidence from diverse sources, including retrospective studies such as that addressed here, can be invaluable in informing future strategies to accelerate declines in TB burden.     

Assessing the Impact of Advected African Dust on Air Quality and Health in the Eastern United States

Large quantities of African dust are carried into the southeastern United States each summer with concentrations typically in the range of 10 to 100?µg m^?3. Because approximately one-third to one-half of the dust mass is in the size range under 2.5?µm diameter, the advection of African dust has implications for the EPA's newly implemented standard for PM_2.5 particulate matter and for the assessment of human health effects. It will be difficult to assess the impact of African dust events on air quality because they occur during the summer (maximum in July) when photochemical pollution events are frequent and intense in the eastern United States. Indeed, the presence of dust could affect the evolution of photochemical dust events. In order to assess the role of African dust in air quality in the United States, it will be necessary to develop a set of diagnostic indicators; it appears that dust mineralogy and elemental composition might be useful for this purpose. Various satellite products can be used to characterize the spatial coverage of dust events and, when coupled with meteorological tools, to predict impact regions.     

Jewish Hearts: A Study of Dynamic Ethnicity in the United States and the Soviet Union

Jewish Hearts:. Study of Dynamic Ethnicity in the United States and the Soviet Union. Betty N. Hoffman. Albany: State University of New York Press, 2001. 282 pp.     

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Background

Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R ₀) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone.     

Projected Impact of Salt Restriction on Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in China: A Modeling Study

Objectives

To estimate the effects of achieving China’s national goals for dietary salt (NaCl) reduction or implementing culturally-tailored dietary salt restriction strategies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention.

Methods

The CVD Policy Model was used to project blood pressure lowering and subsequent downstream prevented CVD that could be achieved by population-wide salt restriction in China. Outcomes were annual CVD events prevented, relative reductions in rates of CVD incidence and mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and CVD treatment costs saved.

Results

Reducing mean dietary salt intake to 9.0 g/day gradually over 10 years could prevent approximately 197 000 incident annual CVD events [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 173 000–219 000], reduce annual CVD mortality by approximately 2.5% (2.2–2.8%), gain 303 000 annual QALYs (278 000–329 000), and save approximately 1.4 billion international dollars (Int$) in annual CVD costs (Int$; 1.2–1.6 billion). Reducing mean salt intake to 6.0 g/day could approximately double these benefits. Implementing cooking salt-restriction spoons could prevent 183 000 fewer incident CVD cases (153 000–215 000) and avoid Int$1.4 billion in CVD treatment costs annually (1.2–1.7 billion). Implementing a cooking salt substitute strategy could lead to approximately three times the health benefits of the salt-restriction spoon program. More than three-quarters of benefits from any dietary salt reduction strategy would be realized in hypertensive adults.

Conclusion

China could derive substantial health gains from implementation of population-wide dietary salt reduction policies. Most health benefits from any dietary salt reduction program would be realized in adults with hypertension.     

Dynamic Modeling of In‐Use Cement Stocks in the United States

A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.     

Impact of Financial Liberalization on Banking Sectors Performance from Central and Eastern European Countries

In this paper we analyse the impact of financial liberalization and reforms on the banking performance in 17 countries from CEE for the period 2004–2008 using a two-stage empirical model that involves estimating bank performance in the first stage and assessing its determinants in the second one. From our analysis it results that banks from CEE countries with higher level of liberalization and openness are able to increase cost efficiency and eventually to offer cheaper services to clients. Banks from non-member EU countries are less cost efficient but experienced much higher total productivity growth level, and large sized banks are much more cost efficient than medium and small banks, while small sized banks show the highest growth in terms of productivity.     

Perceptions of Tuberculosis Patients on Provider-Initiated HIV Testing and Counseling - A Study from South India

Background

The acceptability and feasibility of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling (PITC) in many settings across Asia with concentrated HIV epidemics is not known. A pilot study of the PITC policy undertaken within the public health care systems in two districts in India offered the opportunity to understand patient''s perspectives on the process of referral for HIV testing and linking to HIV treatment and care.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of randomly selected TB patients registered by the TB control program between July and November 2007 in two districts in south India. Trained interviewers met patients shortly after TB diagnosis and administered a structured questionnaire. Patients were assessed regarding their experience with HIV status assessment, referral for counseling and testing, and for HIV-infected patients the counseling itself and subsequent referral for HIV treatment and care.

Results

Of the 568 interviewed TB patients, 455 (80%) reported being referred for HIV testing after they presented to the health facility for investigations or treatment for TB. Over half the respondents reported having to travel long distances and incurred financial difficulties in reaching the Integrated Counselling and Testing Centre (ICTC) and two-thirds had to make more than two visits. Only 48% reported having been counseled before the test. Of the 110 HIV-infected patients interviewed, (including 43 with previously-known positive HIV status and 67 detected by PITC), 89 (81%) reported being referred for anti-retroviral treatment (ART); 82 patients reached the ART centre but only 44 had been initiated on ART.

Conclusions

This study provides the first evidence from India that routine, provider-initiated voluntary HIV testing of TB patients is acceptable, feasible and can be achieved with very high efficiency under programmatic conditions. While PITC is useful in identifying new HIV-infected patients so that they can be successfully linked to ART, the convenience and proximity of testing centres, quality of HIV counseling, and efficiency of ART services need attention.     

Impact of Urbanization on House Sparrow Distribution: A Case Study from Greater Kolkata,India

House Sparrow was the most abundant bird species near human habitat until few years back. But from the mid of twentieth century, the declining trend of House Sparrow has been reported from various countries. It has already been red listed in Netherlands and UK. Researches indicate the declining trend of House Sparrow in different cities of India like Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru. A 3-month wide survey has been conducted to get a preliminary idea about the distributional trend of House Sparrow in greater Kolkata. Depending on nature of urbanization and human habitat, greater Kolkata, has been subdivided into four regions (Planned City, Highly dense city, Medium dense city and Low dense city regions). In high density urban region the avian density recoded was highest, although avian diversity was maximum in medium and low dense city regions and minimum in planned city. Among 20 observational units of planned city region, House Sparrow has been noticed in 6 units and crow in all units. Among 115 observational units of rest of the regions of greater Kolkata, House Sparrow was observed in 79 units and crow in 98 units. The preliminary information revealed from this survey indicates towards negative relationship between urbanization and House Sparrow population in greater Kolkata and this negative influence is maximum in planned urban region. The presence of sufficient number of House Sparrow in any region indicates environmental stability of that region. So the declining trend of House Sparrow population in greater Kolkata, particularly in planned city region, indirectly gives the evidence of serious environmental degradation.     

Impact of Universal Health Insurance Coverage on Hypertension Management: A Cross-National Study in the United States and England

Background

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) galvanised debate in the United States (US) over universal health coverage. Comparison with countries providing universal coverage may illustrate whether the ACA can improve health outcomes and reduce disparities. We aimed to compare quality and disparities in hypertension management by socio-economic position in the US and England, the latter of which has universal health care.

Method

We used data from the Health and Retirement Survey in the US, and the English Longitudinal Study for Aging from England, including non-Hispanic White respondents aged 50–64 years (US market-based v NHS) and >65 years (US-Medicare v NHS) with diagnosed hypertension. We compared blood pressure control to clinical guideline (140/90 mmHg) and audit (150/90 mmHg) targets; mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure and antihypertensive prescribing, and disparities in each by educational attainment, income and wealth, using regression models.

Results

There were no significant differences in aggregate achievement of clinical targets aged 50 to 65 years (US market-based vs. NHS- 62.3% vs. 61.3% [p = 0.835]). There was, however, greater control in the US in patients aged 65 years and over (US Medicare vs. NHS- 53.5% vs. 58.2% [p = 0.043]). England had no significant socioeconomic disparity in blood pressure control (60.9% vs. 63.5% [p = 0.588], high and low wealth aged ≥65 years). The US had socioeconomic differences in the 50–64 years group (71.7% vs. 55.2% [p = 0.003], high and low wealth); these were attenuated but not abolished in Medicare beneficiaries.

Conclusion

Moves towards universal health coverage in the US may reduce disparities in hypertension management. The current situation, providing universal coverage for residents aged 65 years and over, may not be sufficient for equality in care.     

Estimating the Impact of State Budget Cuts and Redirection of Prevention Resources on the HIV Epidemic in 59 California Local Health Departments

Background

In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009–2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs.

Methods and Findings

We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts.

Conclusions

Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.     

Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.     

Nutritional Status of Adult Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Rural Central India and Its Association with Mortality

Under-nutrition is a known risk factor for TB and can adversely affect treatment outcomes. However, data from India are sparse, despite the high burden of TB as well as malnutrition in India. We assessed the nutritional status at the time of diagnosis and completion of therapy, and its association with deaths during TB treatment, in a consecutive cohort of 1695 adult patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in rural India during 2004 - 2009.Multivariable logistic regression was used to obtain adjusted estimates of the association of nutritional status with deaths during treatment. At the time of diagnosis, median BMI and body weights were 16.0 kg/m²and 42.1 kg in men, and 15.0 kg/m²and 34.1 kg in women, indicating that 80% of women and 67% of men had moderate to severe under-nutrition (BMI<17.0 kg/m²). Fifty two percent of the patients (57% of men and 48% of women) had stunting indicating chronic under-nutrition. Half of women and one third of men remained moderately to severely underweight at the end of treatment. 60 deaths occurred in 1179 patients (5%) in whom treatment was initiated. Severe under-nutrition at diagnosis was associated with a 2 fold higher risk of death. Overall, a majority of patients had evidence of chronic severe under-nutrition at diagnosis, which persisted even after successful treatment in a significant proportion of them. These findings suggest the need for nutritional support during treatment of pulmonary TB in this rural population.