Effective population size of natural populations of Drosophila buzzatii, with a comparative evaluation of nine methods of estimation

Allozyme and microsatellite data from numerous populations of Drosophila buzzatii have been used (i) to determine to what degree N(e) varies among generations within populations, and among populations, and (ii) to evaluate the congruence of four temporal and five single-sample estimators of N(e) . Effective size of different populations varied over two orders of magnitude, most populations are not temporally stable in genetic composition, and N(e) showed large variation over generations in some populations. Short-term N(e) estimates from the temporal methods were highly correlated, but the smallest estimates were the most precise for all four methods, and the most consistent across methods. Except for one population, N(e) estimates were lower when assuming gene flow than when assuming populations that were closed. However, attempts to jointly estimate N(e) and immigration rate were of little value because the source of migrants was unknown. Correlations among the estimates from the single-sample methods generally were not significant although, as for the temporal methods, estimates were most consistent when they were small. These single-sample estimates of current N(e) are generally smaller than the short-term temporal estimates. Nevertheless, population genetic variation is not being depleted, presumably because of past or ongoing migration. A clearer picture of current and short-term effective population sizes will only follow with better knowledge of migration rates between populations. Different methods are not necessarily estimating the same N(e) , they are subject to different bias, and the biology, demography and history of the population(s) may affect different estimators differently.     

Reconstructing recent divergence: evaluating nonequilibrium population structure in New Zealand chinook salmon

Newly established or perturbed populations are often the focus of conservation concerns but they pose special challenges for population genetics because drift?migration equilibrium is unlikely. To advance our understanding of the evolution of such populations, we investigated structure and gene flow among populations of chinook salmon that formed via natural straying following introduction to New Zealand in the early 1900s. We examined 11 microsatellite loci from samples collected in several sites and years to address two questions: (i) what population differentiation has arisen in the ≈ 30 generations since salmon were introduced to New Zealand, relative to temporal variation within populations; and (ii) what are the approximate effective population sizes and amounts of gene flow in these populations? These questions are routinely addressed in studies of indigenous populations, but less often in the case of new populations and rarely with consideration of equilibrium assumptions. We show that despite the recent introduction, continued gene flow and high temporal variability among samples, detectable population structure has arisen among the New Zealand populations, consistent with their colonization pattern and isolation by geographical distance. Furthermore, we use simple individual‐based simulations and estimates of effective population sizes to estimate the effective gene flow among drainages under likely nonequilibrium conditions. Similar methodology may be broadly applicable to other studies of population structure and phenotypic evolution under similar nonequilibrium, high gene flow conditions.     

Long-term temporal changes of genetic composition in brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations inhabiting an unstable environment

The genetic structure of brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations inhabiting rivers on the island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea was studied on a spatial and temporal scale. Low water levels in the rivers during the summer period are assumed to have a significant impact on the persistence of local populations, possibly resulting in a metapopulation structure. Extinctions may, however, also be buffered by a remnant strategy, whereby juveniles escape to river outlets during periods of drought. We compared polymorphism at seven microsatellite DNA loci in contemporary and past samples collected from 1944 to 1997. A principal component analysis, a hierarchical gene diversity analysis and assignment tests showed that the genetic composition of populations was not temporally stable, and that temporal genetic differentiation was much stronger than spatial differentiation. Genetic variability was high and stable over time. Effective population sizes (Ne) and migration rate (m) were estimated using a maximum-likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method. Ne estimates were low (ranging from 8.3 to 22.9) and estimates of m were high (between 0.23 and 0.99), in contrast to other Danish trout populations inhabiting larger and more environmentally stable rivers (Ne between 39.2 and 289.9 and m between 0.01 and 0.09). Thus, the observed spatio-temporal patterns of genetic differentiation can be explained by drift in small persisting populations, where levels of genetic variation are maintained by strong gene flow. However, observations of rivers devoid of trout suggested that population turnover also takes place. We suggest that Bornholm trout represent a metapopulation where the genetic structure primarily reflects strong drift and gene flow, combined with occasional extinction-recolonization events.     

Short-term genetic changes: evaluating effective population size estimates in a comprehensively described brown trout (Salmo trutta) population

The effective population size (N(e)) is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate in wild populations as it is influenced by a number of parameters that are difficult to delineate in natural systems. The different methods that are used to estimate N(e) are affected variously by different processes at the population level, such as the life-history characteristics of the organism, gene flow, and population substructure, as well as by the frequency patterns of genetic markers used and the sampling design. Here, we compare N(e) estimates obtained by different genetic methods and from demographic data and elucidate how the estimates are affected by various factors in an exhaustively sampled and comprehensively described natural brown trout (Salmo trutta) system. In general, the methods yielded rather congruent estimates, and we ascribe that to the adequate genotyping and exhaustive sampling. Effects of violating the assumptions of the different methods were nevertheless apparent. In accordance with theoretical studies, skewed allele frequencies would underestimate temporal allele frequency changes and thereby upwardly bias N(e) if not accounted for. Overlapping generations and iteroparity would also upwardly bias N(e) when applied to temporal samples taken over short time spans. Gene flow from a genetically not very dissimilar source population decreases temporal allele frequency changes and thereby acts to increase estimates of N(e). Our study reiterates the importance of adequate sampling, quantification of life-history parameters and gene flow, and incorporating these data into the N(e) estimation.     

Population structure and gene flow reversals in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over contemporary and long-term temporal scales: effects of population size and life history

Metapopulation dynamics are increasingly invoked in management and conservation of endangered species. In this context, asymmetrical gene flow patterns can be density dependent, with migration occurring mainly from larger into smaller populations, which may depend on it for their persistence. Using genetic markers, such patterns have recently been documented for various organisms including salmonids, suggesting this may be a more general pattern. However, metapopulation theory does not restrict gene flow asymmetry to 'source-sink' structures, nor need these patterns be constant over longer evolutionary timescales. In anadromous salmonids, gene flow can be expected to be shaped by various selective pressures underlying homing and dispersal ('straying') behaviours. The relative importance of these selective forces will vary spatially and for populations of different census size. Furthermore, the consequences of life-history variation among populations for dispersal and hence gene flow remain poorly quantified. We examine population structure and connectivity in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from Newfoundland and Labrador, a region where populations of this species are relatively pristine. Using genetic variation at 13 microsatellite loci from samples (N=1346) collected from a total of 20 rivers, we examine connectivity at several regional and temporal scales and test the hypothesis that the predominant direction of gene flow is from large into small populations. We reject this hypothesis and find that the directionality of migration is affected by the temporal scale over which gene flow is assessed. Whereas large populations tend to function as sources of dispersal over contemporary timescales, such patterns are often changed and even reversed over evolutionary, coalescent-derived timescales. These patterns of population structure furthermore vary between different regions and are compatible with demographic and life-history attributes. We find no evidence for sex-biased dispersal underlying gene flow asymmetry. Our findings caution against generalizations concerning the directionality of gene flow in Atlantic salmon and emphasize the need for detailed regional study, if such information is to be meaningfully applied in conservation and management of salmonids.     

Stability of genetic structure and effective population size inferred from temporal changes of microsatellite DNA polymorphisms in the land snail Helix aspersa (Gastropoda: Helicidae)

Temporal evolution of genetic variability may have far-reaching consequences for a diverse array of evolutionary processes. Within the polders of the Bay of Mont-Saint-Michel (France), populations of the land snail Helix aspersa are characterized by a metapopulation structure with occasional extinction processes resulting from farming practices. A temporal survey of genetic structure in H . aspersa was carried out using variability at four microsatellite loci, in ten populations sampled two years apart. Levels of within-population genetic variation, as measured by allelic richness, H _e or F _is , did not change over time and similar levels of population differentiation were demonstrated for both sampling years. The extent of genetic differentiation between temporal samples of the same population established (i) a stable structure for six populations, and (ii) substantial genetic changes for four populations. Using classical F -statistics and a maximum likelihood method, estimates of the effective population size ( N _e) illustrated a mixture of stable populations with high N _e, and unstable populations characterized by very small N _e estimates (of 5–11 individuals). Owing to human disturbances, intermittent gene flow and genetic drift are likely to be the predominant evolutionary processes shaping the observed genetic structure. However, the practice of multiple matings and sperm storage is likely to provide a reservoir of variability, minimizing the eroding genetic effects of population size reduction and increasing the effective population size.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2004, 82 , 89–102.     

Gene flow, effective population size and selection at major histocompatibility complex genes: brown trout in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway

Brown trout populations in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway, have declined drastically due to increased exposure to salmon lice from salmonid aquaculture. We studied contemporary samples from seven populations and historical samples (1972 and 1983) from the two largest populations, one of which has declined drastically whereas the other remains stable. We analysed 11 microsatellite loci, including one tightly linked to the UBA gene of the major histocompatibility class I complex (MHC) and another locus linked to the TAP2A gene, also associated with MHC. The results revealed asymmetric gene flow from the two largest populations to the other, smaller populations. This has important conservation implications, and we predict that possible future population recoveries will be mediated primarily by the remaining large population. Tests for selection suggested diversifying selection at UBA, whereas evidence was inconclusive for TAP2A. There was no evidence for temporally fluctuating selection. We assessed the distribution of adaptive divergence among populations. The results showed the most pronounced footprints of selection between the two largest populations subject to the least immigration. We suggest that asymmetric gene flow has an important influence on adaptive divergence and constrains local adaptive responses in the smaller populations. Even though UBA alleles may not affect salmon louse resistance, the results bear evidence of adaptive divergence among populations at immune system genes. This suggests that similar genetic differences could exist at salmon louse resistance loci, thus rendering it a realistic scenario that differential population declines could reflect differences in adaptive variation.     

Spatial population structure in a patchily distributed beetle

The dynamics and evolution of populations will critically depend on their spatial structure. Hence, a recent emphasis on one particular type of structure--the metapopulation concept of Levins--can only be justified by empirical assessment of spatial population structures in a wide range of organisms. This paper focuses on Aphodius fossor, a dung beetle specialized on cattle pastures. An agricultural database was used to locate nearly 50 000 local populations of A. fossor in Finland. Several independent methods were then used to quantify key processes in this vast population system. Allozyme markers and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences were applied to examine genetic differentiation of local populations and to derive indirect estimates of gene flow. These estimates were compared to values expected on the basis of direct observations of dispersing individuals and assessments of local effective population size. Molecular markers revealed striking genetic homogeneity in A. fossor. Differentiation was only evident in mtDNA haplotype frequencies between the isolated Aland islands and the Finnish mainland. Thus, indirect estimates of gene flow agreed with direct observations that local effective population size in A. fossor is large (hundreds of individuals), and that in each generation, a substantial fraction (approximately one-fifth) of the individuals move between populations. Large local population size, extreme haplotype diversity and a high regional incidence of A. fossor all testify against recurrent population turnover. Taken together, these results provide strong evidence that the whole mainland population of A. fossor is better described as one large 'patchy population', with substantial movement between relatively persistent local populations, than as a classical metapopulation.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of gene flow in Chesapeake Bay Diamondback Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

There is widespread concern regarding the impacts of anthropogenic activities on connectivity among populations of plants and animals, and understanding how contemporary and historical processes shape metapopulation dynamics is crucial for setting appropriate conservation targets. We used genetic data to identify population clusters and quantify gene flow over historical and contemporary time frames in the Diamondback Terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin). This species has a long and complicated history with humans, including commercial overharvesting and subsequent translocation events during the early twentieth century. Today, terrapins face threats from habitat loss and mortality in fisheries bycatch. To evaluate population structure and gene flow among Diamondback Terrapin populations in the Chesapeake Bay region, we sampled 617 individuals from 15 localities and screened individuals at 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Our goals were to demarcate metapopulation structure, quantify genetic diversity, estimate effective population sizes, and document temporal changes in gene flow. We found that terrapins in the Chesapeake Bay region harbour high levels of genetic diversity and form four populations. Effective population sizes were variable. Among most population comparisons, estimates of historical and contemporary terrapin gene flow were generally low (m ≈ 0.01). However, we detected a substantial increase in contemporary gene flow into Chesapeake Bay from populations outside the bay, as well as between two populations within Chesapeake Bay, possibly as a consequence of translocations during the early twentieth century. Our study shows that inferences across multiple time scales are needed to evaluate population connectivity, especially as recent changes may identify threats to population persistence.     

Long-term effective population sizes, temporal stability of genetic composition and potential for local adaptation in anadromous brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations

We examined the long-term temporal (1910s to 1990s) genetic variation at eight microsatellite DNA loci in brown trout (Salmo trutta L) collected from five anadromous populations in Denmark to assess the long-term stability of genetic composition and to estimate effective population sizes (Ne). Contemporary and historical samples consisted of tissue and archived scales, respectively. Pairwise thetaST estimates, a hierarchical analysis of molecular variance (amova) and multidimensional scaling analysis of pairwise genetic distances between samples revealed much closer genetic relationships among temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of Ne, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed Ne >or= 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small (3 km) river showed Ne >or= 300. Assuming a stepping-stone model of gene flow we considered the relative roles of gene flow, random genetic drift and selection to assess the possibilities for local adaptation. The requirements for local adaptation were fulfilled, but only adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. Ne appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied populations, and the documented recent declines of many other anadromous brown trout populations may affect the persistence of local adaptation.     

Demographic and genetic factors shaping contemporary metapopulation effective size and its empirical estimation in salmonid fish

The preservation of biodiversity requires an understanding of the maintenance of its components, including genetic diversity. Effective population size determines the amount of genetic variance maintained in populations, but its estimation can be complex, especially when populations are interconnected in a metapopulation. Theory predicts that the effective size of a metapopulation (meta-N(e)) can be decreased or increased by population subdivision, but little empirical work has evaluated these predictions. Here, we use neutral genetic markers and simulations to estimate the effective size of a putative metapopulation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). For a weakly structured set of rivers, we find that meta-N(e) is similar to the sum of local deme sizes, whereas higher genetic differentiation among demes dramatically reduces meta-N(e) estimates. Interdemic demographic processes, such as asymmetrical gene flow, may explain this pattern. However, simulations also suggest that unrecognized population subdivision can also introduce downward bias into empirical estimation, emphasizing the importance of identifying the proper scale of distinct demographic and genetic processes. Under natural patterns of connectivity, evolutionary potential may generally be maintained at higher levels than the local population, with implications for conservation given ongoing species declines and habitat fragmentation.     

Spatial and temporal genetic differentiation and effective population size of brown trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo trutta</Emphasis>, L.) in small Danish rivers

The spatial and temporal genetic structure of brown trout populations from three small tributaries of Lake Hald, Denmark, was studied using analysis of variation at eight microsatellite loci. From two of the populations temporal samples were available, separated by up to 13 years (3.7 generations). Significant genetic differentiation was observed among all samples, however, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that differentiation among populations accounted for a non-significant amount of the genetic differentiation, whereas differentiation among temporal samples within populations was highly significant (0.0244, P<0.001). Estimates of effective population size (N _e) using a maximum-likelihood based implementation of the temporal method, yielded small values (N _e ranging from 33 to 79). When a model was applied that allows for migration among populations, N _e estimates were even lower (24–54), and migration rates were suggested to be high (0.13–0.36). All samples displayed a clear signal of a recent bottleneck, probably stemming from a period of unfavourable conditions due to organic pollution in the 1970–1980’s. By comparison to other estimates of N _e in brown trout, Lake Hald trout represent a system of small populations linked by extensive gene flow, whereas other populations in larger rivers exhibit much higher N _e values and experience lower levels of immigration. We suggest that management considerations for systems like Lake Hald brown trout should focus both on a regional scale and at the level of individual populations, as the future persistence of populations depends both on maintaining individual populations and ensuring sufficient migration links among these populations.     

Founding events influence genetic population structure of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Lake Clark, Alaska

Bottlenecks can have lasting effects on genetic population structure that obscure patterns of contemporary gene flow and drift. Sockeye salmon are vulnerable to bottleneck effects because they are a highly structured species with excellent colonizing abilities and often occupy geologically young habitats. We describe genetic divergence among and genetic variation within spawning populations of sockeye salmon throughout the Lake Clark area of Alaska. Fin tissue was collected from sockeye salmon representing 15 spawning populations of Lake Clark, Six-mile Lake, and Lake Iliamna. Allele frequencies differed significantly at 11 microsatellite loci in 96 of 105 pairwise population comparisons. Pairwise estimates of FST ranged from zero to 0.089. Six-mile Lake and Lake Clark populations have historically been grouped together for management purposes and are geographically proximate. However, Six-mile Lake populations are genetically similar to Lake Iliamna populations and are divergent from Lake Clark populations. The reduced allelic diversity and strong divergence of Lake Clark populations relative to Six-mile Lake and Lake Iliamna populations suggest a bottleneck associated with the colonization of Lake Clark by sockeye salmon. Geographic distance and spawning habitat differences apparently do not contribute to isolation and divergence among populations. However, temporal isolation based on spawning time and founder effects associated with ongoing glacial retreat and colonization of new spawning habitats contribute to the genetic population structure of Lake Clark sockeye salmon. Nonequilibrium conditions and the strong influence of genetic drift caution against using estimates of divergence to estimate gene flow among populations of Lake Clark sockeye salmon.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation and genetic population structure of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta around the Pacific Rim

A survey of mtDNA variation among populations of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta around the Pacific Rim revealed four large population groups: Rim of the Sea of Japan, the Rim of the Okhotsk Sea and West Bering Sea, North‐west Alaska and Gulf of Alaska. The observed population structure appears to reflect isolation by distance with limited gene flow between regions and larger amounts of gene flow between populations within these four regions.     

THE INFLUENCE OF POPULATION SIZE AND ISOLATION ON GENE FLOW BY POLLEN IN SILENE ALBA

In a series of experiments conducted over two seasons, we used arrays of experimental populations to examine the effects of flower number and distance between patches on gene flow by pollen. For this study we used the dioecious, short-lived perennial plant Silene alba (Caryophyllaceae). This species lives in disturbed roadside and agricultural habitats and displays a weedy population dynamic with high colonization and extinction rates. The motivation for the study was to understand what factors may be influencing genetic connectedness among newly colonized populations within a regional metapopulation. By using experimental populations composed of genotypes homozygous at a diagnostic locus, it was possible to identify explicitly pollen movement into a focal patch as a function of flower number and distance to the nearest neighboring patch. Overall, the mean immigration rate (measured as the fraction of seeds sired by males outside the focal patch) at 20 m was just over 47%, whereas at 80 m immigration rates were less than 6%. In addition, by knowing the context in which each of these gene-flow events occurred, it was possible to understand some of the factors that influenced the exchange of genes. Both the number of flowers in the focal population (target) and in the neighboring populations (source) had a significant effect on the frequency of gene flow. Our experimental data also demonstrate that factors that influence gene flow at one spatial scale may not act in the same way at another. Specifically, the influence of target size and the relative size of the target and source patches on rates of gene flow depended on whether the patches were separated by 20 m or 80 m. These data suggest that the patterns of gene flow within a metapopulation system can be complex and may vary within a growing season.     

Species diversity and population density affect genetic structure and gene dispersal in a subtropical understory shrub

Aims The dispersal of pollen and seeds is spatially restricted and may vary among plant populations because of varying biotic interactions, population histories or abiotic conditions. Because gene dispersal is spatially restricted, it will eventually result in the development of spatial genetic structure (SGS), which in turn can allow insights into gene dispersal processes. Here, we assessed the effect of habitat characteristics like population density and community structure on small-scale SGS and estimate historical gene dispersal at different spatial scales.Methods In a set of 12 populations of the subtropical understory shrub Ardisia crenata, we assessed genetic variation at 7 microsatellite loci within and among populations. We investigated small-scale genetic structure with spatial genetic autocorrelation statistics and heterogeneity tests and estimated gene dispersal distances based on population differentiation and on within-population SGS. SGS was related to habitat characteristics by multiple regression.Important findings The populations showed high genetic diversity (H e = 0.64) within populations and rather strong genetic differentiation (F ′ ST = 0.208) among populations, following an isolation-by-distance pattern, which suggests that populations are in gene flow–drift equilibrium. Significant SGS was present within populations (mean Sp = 0.027). Population density and species diversity had a joint effect on SGS with low population density and high species diversity leading to stronger small-scale SGS. Estimates of historical gene dispersal from between-population differentiation and from within-population SGS resulted in similar values between 4.8 and 22.9 m. The results indicate that local-ranged pollen dispersal and inefficient long-distance seed dispersal, both affected by population density and species diversity, contributed to the genetic population structure of the species. We suggest that SGS in shrubs is more similar to that of herbs than to trees and that in communities with high species diversity gene flow is more restricted than at low species diversity. This may represent a process that retards the development of a positive species diversity–genetic diversity relationship.     

Fluctuating sex ratios,but no sex-biased dispersal,in a promiscuous fish

Dispersal in birds and mammals tends to be female-biased in monogamous species and male-biased in polygamous species. However results for other taxa, most notably fish, are equivocal. We employed molecular markers and physical tags to test the hypothesis that Atlantic salmon, a promiscuous species with intense male-male competition for access to females, displays male-biased dispersal. We found significant variation in sex ratios and in asymmetric gene flow between neighbouring salmon populations, but little or no evidence for sex-biased dispersal. We show that conditions favouring male dispersal will often be offset by those favouring female dispersal, and that spatial and temporal variation in sex ratios within a metapopulation may favour the dispersal of different sexes in source and sink habitats. Thus, our results reconcile previous discrepancies on salmonid dispersal and highlight the need to consider metapopulation dynamics and sex ratios in the study of natal dispersal of highly fecund species.     

Hierarchical genetic structure and gene flow in three sympatric species of Amazonian rodents

The population genetic structure of three species of Amazonian rodents ( Oligoryzomys microtis, Oryzomys capito , and Mesomys hispidus ) is examined for mtDNA sequence haplotypes of the cytochrome b gene by hierarchical analysis of variance and gene flow estimates based on fixation indices ( N _ST) and coalescence methods. Species samples are from the same localities along 1000 km of the Rio Juruá in western Amazonian Brazil, but each species differs in important life history traits such as population size and reproductive rate. Average haplotype differentiation, hierarchical haplotype apportionment, and gene flow estimates are contrasted in discussing the current and past population structure. Two species exhibit isolation by distance patterns wherein gene flow is largely limited to geographically adjacent localities. Mesomys exhibits this pattern throughout its range along the river. More than 75% of haplotype variation is apportioned among localities and regions, and estimates of Nm for pair-wise comparisons are nearly always less than 1. Oligoryzomys shows weak isolation by distance, but only over the largest geographical distances. Nm values for this species are nearly always above 1 and most (about 80%) of haplotype variation is contained within local populations. In contrast, Oryzomys exhibits no genetic structure throughout its entire distribution; Nm values average 17 and nearly 90% of the total haplotype variance is contained within local populations. Although gene flow estimates are high, the pattern of Nm as a function of geographical distance suggests that this species experienced a more recent invasion of the region and is still in genetic disequilibrium under its current demographic conditions.     

A standardized method for quantifying unidirectional genetic introgression

Genetic introgression of domesticated to wild conspecifics is of great concern to the genetic integrity and viability of the wild populations. Therefore, we need tools that can be used for monitoring unidirectional gene flow from domesticated to wild populations. A challenge to quantitation of unidirectional gene flow is that both the donor and the recipient population may be genetically substructured and that the subpopulations are subjected to genetic drift and may exchange migrants between one another. We develop a standardized method for quantifying and monitoring domesticated to wild gene flow and demonstrate its usefulness to farm and wild Atlantic salmon as a model species. The challenge of having several wild and farm populations was circumvented by in silico generating one analytical center point for farm and wild salmon, respectively. Distributions for the probability that an individual is wild were generated from individual‐based analyses of observed wild and farm genotypes using STRUCTURE. We show that estimates of proportions of the genome being of domesticated origin in a particular wild population can be obtained without having a historical reference sample for the same population. The main advantages of the method presented are the standardized way in which genetic processes within and between populations are taken into account, and the individual‐based analyses giving estimates for each individual independent of other individuals. The method makes use of established software, and as long as genetic markers showing generic genetic differences between domesticated and wild populations are available, it can be applied to all species with unidirectional gene flow. Results from our method are easy to interpret and understand, and will serve as a powerful tool for management, especially because there is no need for a specific historical wild reference sample.     

Temporal changes in allele frequencies but stable genetic diversity over the past 40 years in the Irish Sea population of thornback ray, Raja clavata

Rays and skates are an unavoidable part of the by-catch in demersal fisheries. Over the past 40 years, the thornback ray (Raja clavata) has decreased in numbers and even disappeared in some areas, leading to concerns about genetic risk. For this reason, the effective population size (N(e)), the migration rate (m) and temporal changes in the genetic diversity were estimated for the population of thornback rays in the Irish Sea and Bristol Channel. Using genotyped, archived and contemporary samples (1965 and 2003-2004), N(e) was estimated at 283 individuals (95% CI=145-857), m at 0.1 (95% CI=0.03-0.25) and the N(e)/N ratio between 9 x 10(-5) and 6 x 10(-4). Although these results must be treated with caution, due to the small sample sizes, this is the first attempt to estimate N(e) in an elasmobranch species. The low N(e)/N ratio suggests that relatively few individuals contribute to the next generation. The combined effect of sex bias, inbreeding, fluctuations in population size and, perhaps most important, the variance in reproductive success may explain the low N(e)/N ratio. In addition, the relatively high gene flow between Irish Sea population and other source populations is likely to have had an impact on our estimate, which may be more relevant at the metapopulation scale. No significant loss of genetic diversity was found over the 40-year timeframe and long-term maintenance of the genetic diversity could be due to gene flow.