Whole-tree methods for detecting differential diversification rates

Prolific cladogenesis, adaptive radiation, species selection, key innovations, and mass extinctions are a few examples of biological phenomena that lead to differential diversification among lineages. Central to the study of differential diversification rates is the ability to distinguish chance variation from that which requires deterministic explanation. To detect diversification rate variation among lineages, we propose a number of methods that incorporate information on the topological distribution of species diversity from all internal nodes of a phylogenetic tree. These whole-tree methods (M(Pi), M(Sigma), and M(R)) are explicitly connected to a null model of random diversification--the equal-rates Markov (ERM) random branching model--and an alternative model of differential diversification: M(Pi) is based on the product of individual nodal ERM probabilities; M(Sigma) is based on the sum of individual nodal ERM probabilities, and M(R) is based on a transformation of ERM probabilities that corresponds to a formalized system that orders trees by their relative symmetry. These methods have been implemented in a freely available computer program, SYMMETREE, to detect clades with variable diversification rates, thereby allowing the study of biological processes correlated with and possibly causal to shifts in diversification rate. Application of these methods to several published phylogenies demonstrates their ability to contend with relatively large, incompletely resolved trees. These topology-based methods do not require estimates of relative branch lengths, which should facilitate the analysis of phylogenies, such as supertrees, for which such data are unreliable or unavailable.     

Global diversification rates of passerine birds

The distribution of species richness in families of passerine birds suggests that the net rate of diversification was significantly higher than average in as many as 7 out of 47 families. However, the absence of excess species richness among the 106 tribes within these families indicates that these high rates were transient, perhaps associated in some cases with tectonic movements or dispersal events that extended geographical ranges. Thus, large clade size among passerine birds need not represent intrinsic key innovations that influence the rate of diversification. Approximately 17 families and 30 tribes have too few species relative to other passerine taxa. Many of these are ecologically or geographically marginal, being especially overrepresented in the Australasian region. Observed intervals between lineage splitting suggest that extinction has occurred ca. 90% as frequently as speciation (waiting times of 1.03 and 0.93 Myr) and that the 47 modern families comprising 5712 species descended from approximately 430 passerine lineages extant 24 Myr ago. Speciation and extinction rates among small, marginal families might be 1-2 orders of magnitude lower.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

Detecting shifts in diversification rates without fossils

Studies of shifts in diversification rates and adaptive radiations are difficult when there are no fossils because past events cannot be inferred. The phylogenies of recent species, however, allow one to infer the patterns of past diversifications. I present a new method for estimating the diversification rate of a lineage, provided that a phylogeny of recent species, constructed, for instance, with molecular data, is available. This method was inspired by survival models and takes into account species that are not included in detailed phylogenetic data, provided that approximate dates of origin of these species are known. Likelihood ratio tests and Akaike Information Criterion make it possible to test for differences in diversification among lineages or groups of lineages and, thus, to evaluate adaptive radiation hypotheses. The present modeling approach can easily be extended to include temporal variations in diversification rates. A simulation study showed that the method is statistically consistent, avoiding Type I and Type II errors, and that it is robust to periodic or random fluctuations in the speciation rate. An example is presented with a composite phylogeny of primates.     

Evolutionary rates analysis of Leguminosae implicates a rapid diversification of lineages during the tertiary

Tertiary macrofossils of the flowering plant family Leguminosae (legumes) were used as time constraints to estimate ages of the earliest branching clades identified in separate plastid matK and rbcL gene phylogenies. Penalized likelihood rate smoothing was performed on sets of Bayesian likelihood trees generated with the AIC-selected GTR+ Gamma +I substitution model. Unequivocal legume fossils dating from the Recent continuously back to about 56 million years ago were used to fix the family stem clade at 60 million years (Ma), and at 1-Ma intervals back to 70 Ma. Specific fossils that showed distinctive combinations of apomorphic traits were used to constrain the minimum age of 12 specific internal nodes. These constraints were placed on stem rather than respective crown clades in order to bias for younger age estimates. Regardless, the mean age of the legume crown clade differs by only 1.0 to 2.5 Ma from the fixed age of the legume stem clade. Additionally, the oldest caesalpinioid, mimosoid, and papilionoid crown clades show approximately the same age range of 39 to 59 Ma. These findings all point to a rapid family-wide diversification, and predict few if any legume fossils prior to the Cenozoic. The range of the matK substitution rate, 2.1-24.6 x 10(-10) substitutions per site per year, is higher than that of rbcL, 1.6- 8.6 x 10(-10), and is accompanied by more uniform rate variation among codon positions. The matK and rbcL substitution rates are highly correlated across the legume family. For example, both loci have the slowest substitution rates among the mimosoids and the fastest rates among the millettioid legumes. This explains why groups such as the millettioids are amenable to species-level phylogenetic analysis with these loci, whereas other legume groups are not.     

Pattern and timing of diversification in Yucca (Agavaceae): specialized pollination does not escalate rates of diversification

The yucca-yucca moth interaction is one of the most well-known and remarkable obligate pollination mutualisms, and is an important study system for understanding coevolution. Previous research suggests that specialist pollinators can promote rapid diversification in plants, and theoretical work has predicted that obligate pollination mutualism promotes cospeciation between plants and their pollinators, resulting in contemporaneous, parallel diversification. However, a lack of information about the age of Yucca has impeded efforts to test these hypotheses. We used analyses of 4322 AFLP markers and cpDNA sequence data representing six non-protein-coding regions (trnT-trnL, trnL, trnL intron, trnL-trnF, rps16 and clpP intron 2) from all 34 species to recover a consensus organismal phylogeny, and used penalized likelihood to estimate divergence times and speciation rates in Yucca. The results indicate that the pollination mutualism did not accelerate diversification, as Yucca diversity (34 species) is not significantly greater than that of its non-moth-pollinated sister group, Agave sensu latissimus (240 species). The new phylogenetic estimates also corroborate the suggestion that the plant-moth pollination mutualism has at least two origins within the Agavaceae. Finally, age estimates show significant discord between the age of Yucca (ca 6-10Myr) and the current best estimates for the age of their pollinators (32-40Myr).     

Self-sterility in flowering plants: preventing self-fertilization increases family diversification rates

Background and Scope

New data are presented on the distribution and frequency of self-sterility (SS) – predominantly pre-zygotic self-incompatibility (SI) systems – in flowering plants and the hypothesis is tested that families with self-sterile taxa have higher net diversification rates (DRs) than those with exclusively self-compatible taxa using both absolute and relative rate tests.

Key Results

Three major forms of SI systems (where pollen is rejected at the stigmatic, stylar or ovarian interface) are found to occur in the oldest families of flowering plants, with times of divergence >100 million years before the present (mybp), while post-fertilization SS and heterostyly appear in families with crown ages of 81 and 87 mybp, respectively. It is also founnd that many (22) angiosperm families exhibit >1 SI phenotype and that the distribution of different types of SS does not show strong phylogenetic clustering, collectively suggesting that SS and SI systems have evolved repeatedly de novo in angiosperm history. Families bearing self-sterile taxa have higher absolute DRs using all available calibrations of the angiosperm tree, and this affect is caused mostly by the high DR of families with homomorphic SI systems (in particular stigmatic SI) or those in which multiple SS/SI phenotypes have been observed (polymorphic). Lastly, using sister comparisons, it is further demonstrated that in 29 of 38 sister pairs (including 95 families), the self-sterile sister group had higher species richness and DR than its self-compatible sister based on either the total number of taxa in the clade with SS or only the estimated fraction to harbour SS based on literature surveys.

Conclusions

Collectively, these analyses point to the importance of SS, particularly pre-zygotic SI in the evolution of flowering plants.     

Latitude and rates of diversification in birds and butterflies

Central to many explanations of latitudinal diversity gradients is the idea that rates of species diversification increase towards the equator. However, there have been few explicit tests of whether or not this pattern exists. Using sister-group analyses to compare 48 clades of passerine birds and swallowtail butterflies from different latitudes, I found evidence that relative rates of diversification per unit time are indeed higher towards the equator. This pattern is explicable in terms of abiotic factors which vary continuously with latitude, and may be further enhanced by diversity-dependent speciation and extinction processes.     

Comparative rates of lower jaw diversification in cichlid adaptive radiations

The lower jaw (LJ) provides an ideal trophic phenotype to compare rates and patterns of macroevolution among cichlid radiations. Using a novel phylogeny of four genes (ND2, dlx2, mitfb, and s7), we examined the evolutionary relationships among two of the most phylogenetically disparate cichlid radiations: (i) the Central America Heroines; and (ii) the East African Lake Malawi flock. To quantify jaw morphology, we measured two LJ lever systems in approximately 40 species from each lineage. Using geologic calibrations, we generated a chronogram for both groups and examined the rates of jaw evolution in the two radiations. The most rapidly evolving components of the LJ differed between the two radiations. However, the Lake Malawi flock exhibited a much faster rate of evolution in several components of the LJ. This rapid rate of divergence is consistent with natural selection, promoting unparalleled trophic diversification in Lake Malawi cichlids.     

Assessing temporal variations in diversification rates from phylogenies: estimation and hypothesis testing

A new method to estimate the diversification rate of a lineage from a phylogeny of recent species is presented. This uses survival models to analyse the ages of the species as derived from the phylogeny. Survival models can analyse missing data where the exact date of death is unknown (censoring). This approach allows us to include missing data (species not included in a detailed phylogenetic study) in the analysis, provided a minimum age is known for these species. Three models are presented, with emphasis on temporal variation in diversification rates. The maximum likelihood method and Akaike information criteria are used to derive estimators and tests of hypotheses. A simulation study demonstrates that the method is able to detect a temporal variation in diversification rate only when it is present, avoiding type I and type II errors. A lineage with ten species may be sufficient to detect a temporal variation in diversification rate even with 50 per cent of missing data. An application is presented with data from a phylogeny of birds of the genus Ramphocelus.     

Correlations of life-history and distributional-range variation with salamander diversification rates: evidence for species selection

Evolutionary biologists have long debated the relative influence of species selection on evolutionary patterns. As a test, we apply a statistical phylogenetic approach to evaluate the influence of traits related to species distribution and life-history characteristics on patterns of diversification in salamanders. We use independent contrasts to test trait-mediated diversification while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty in relationships among all salamander families. Using a neontological data set, we find several species-level traits to be variable, heritable, and associated with differential success (i.e., higher diversification rates) at higher taxonomic categories. Specifically, the macroecological trait of small geographic-range size is strongly correlated with a higher rate of net diversification. We further consider the role that plasticity in life-history traits appears to fulfill in macroevolutionary processes of lineage divergence and durability. We find that pedotypy--wherein some, but not all, organisms of a species mature in the gilled form without metamorphosing-is also associated with higher net diversification rate than is the absence of developmental plasticity. Often dismissed as an insignificant process in evolution, we provide direct evidence for the role of species selection in lineage diversification of salamanders.     

Rapid lineage accumulation in a non-adaptive radiation: phylogenetic analysis of diversification rates in eastern North American woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae: Plethodon)

Adaptive radiations have served as model systems for quantifying the build-up of species richness. Few studies have quantified the tempo of diversification in species-rich clades that contain negligible adaptive disparity, making the macroevolutionary consequences of different modes of evolutionary radiation difficult to assess. We use mitochondrial-DNA sequence data and recently developed phylogenetic methodologies to explore the tempo of diversification of eastern North American Plethodon, a species-rich clade of woodland salamanders exhibiting only limited phenotypic disparity. Lineage-through-time analysis reveals a high rate of lineage accumulation, 0.8 species per million years, occurring 11-8 million years ago in the P. glutinosus species group, followed by decreasing rates. This high rate of lineage accumulation is exceptional, comparable to the most rapid of adaptive radiations. In contrast to classic models of adaptive radiation where ecological niche divergence is linked to the origin of species, we propose that phylogenetic niche conservatism contributes to the rapid accumulation of P. glutinosus-group lineages by promoting vicariant isolation and multiplication of species across a spatially and temporally fluctuating environment. These closely related and ecologically similar lineages persist through long-periods of evolutionary time and form strong barriers to the geographic spread of their neighbours, producing a subsequent decline in lineage accumulation. Rapid diversification among lineages exhibiting long-term maintenance of their bioclimatic niche requirements is an under-appreciated phenomenon driving the build-up of species richness.     

Terrestrialization, miniaturization and rates of diversification in African puddle frogs (Anura: Phrynobatrachidae)

Terrestrialization, the evolution of non-aquatic oviposition, and miniaturization, the evolution of tiny adult body size, are recurring trends in amphibian evolution, but the relationships among the traits that characterize these phenomena are not well understood. Furthermore, these traits have been identified as possible "key innovations" that are predicted to increase rates of speciation in those lineages in which they evolve. We examine terrestrialization and miniaturization in sub-Saharan puddle frogs (Phrynobatrachidae) in a phylogenetic context to investigate the relationship between adaptation and diversification through time. We use relative dating techniques to ascertain if character trait shifts are associated with increased diversification rates, and we evaluate the likelihood that a single temporal event can explain the evolution of those traits. Results indicate alternate reproductive modes evolved independently in Phrynobatrachus at least seven times, including terrestrial deposition of eggs and terrestrial, non-feeding larvae. These shifts towards alternate reproductive modes are not linked to a common temporal event. Contrary to the "key innovations" hypothesis, clades that exhibit alternate reproductive modes have lower diversification rates than those that deposit eggs aquatically. Adult habitat, pedal webbing and body size have no effect on diversification rates. Though these traits putatively identified as key innovations for Phrynobatrachus do not seem to be associated with increased speciation rates, they may still provide opportunities to extend into new niches, thus increasing overall diversity.     

Evolutionary rates of mitochondrial genomes correspond to diversification rates and to contemporary species richness in birds and reptiles

Rates of biological diversification should ultimately correspond to rates of genome evolution. Recent studies have compared diversification rates with phylogenetic branch lengths, but incomplete phylogenies hamper such analyses for many taxa. Herein, we use pairwise comparisons of confamilial sauropsid (bird and reptile) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome sequences to estimate substitution rates. These molecular evolutionary rates are considered in light of the age and species richness of each taxonomic family, using a random-walk speciation–extinction process to estimate rates of diversification. We find the molecular clock ticks at disparate rates in different families and at different genes. For example, evolutionary rates are relatively fast in snakes and lizards, intermediate in crocodilians and slow in turtles and birds. There was also rate variation across genes, where non-synonymous substitution rates were fastest at ATP8 and slowest at CO3. Family-by-gene interactions were significant, indicating that local clocks vary substantially among sauropsids. Most importantly, we find evidence that mitochondrial genome evolutionary rates are positively correlated with speciation rates and with contemporary species richness. Nuclear sequences are poorly represented among reptiles, but the correlation between rates of molecular evolution and species diversification also extends to 18 avian nuclear genes we tested. Thus, the nuclear data buttress our mtDNA findings.     

How diversification rates and diversity limits combine to create large-scale species-area relationships

Species-area relationships (SARs) have mostly been treated from an ecological perspective, focusing on immigration, local extinction and resource-based limits to species coexistence. However, a full understanding across large regions is impossible without also considering speciation and global extinction. Rates of both speciation and extinction are known to be strongly affected by area and thus should contribute to spatial patterns of diversity. Here, we explore how variation in diversification rates and ecologically mediated diversity limits among regions of different sizes can result in the formation of SARs. We explain how this area-related variation in diversification can be caused by either the direct effects of area or the effects of factors that are highly correlated with area, such as habitat diversity and population size. We also review environmental, clade-specific and historical factors that affect diversification and diversity limits but are not highly correlated with region area, and thus are likely to cause scatter in observed SARs. We present new analyses using data on the distributions, ages and traits of mammalian species to illustrate these mechanisms; in doing so we provide an integrated perspective on the evolutionary processes shaping SARs.