Rainfall,groundwater and refuges: Predicting extinctions of Australian tropical mammal species

Abstract A general decline in populations of some savanna mammal species has occurred since the mid-1980s in a fairly pristine national park environment in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Terrestrial native rodents have exhibited the greatest decline and marsupials the least. During the same period, waterholes have dried up and the previous strong association of mammals with riparian vegetation has diminished. A regional index of the level of groundwater was developed from 16 unexploited bores from across the northern half of the Northern Territory. Predicted mean groundwater values over 28 years showed a strong increase throughout the 1970s and a similar decrease throughout the 1980s. Using data since 1986, strong correlations between mammal numbers and groundwater levels for the preceding two years, and much weaker relationships with rainfall, were obtained. In turn, the groundwater levels were best correlated with an eight-year running mean of rainfall for both Darwin and Alice Springs and an eleven-year running mean for the Southern Oscillation Index. Extrapolating backward in time, cumulative pressure variation at Darwin showed two extended periods of predicted low ground-water values, 1900s–1920s and 1940s. Both periods were preceded by the last records of a number of now-extinct mammals from central Australia. A third trough in the early 1960s suggests another period of extinction in central Australia, previously unappreciated due to the lack of survey work in the 1950s. Further, by this analysis, the past 20 years has been the best period for mammals since weather records commenced. Analysis of continental-scale distributions of mammals showed evidence of fluctuations suggesting rocky areas are important refuges for some species during periods of low groundwater levels. In contrast to those in savanna habitats, the mammals of the extensive wetland areas fluctuated in harmony with rainfall on a short-term basis except where habitat is flooded. It is the species which occur only in savanna but not also in rocky or wetland habitats which are most at risk. A number of other species-vulnerability characteristics were identified: riparian vegetation specificity; the degree to which they fall within the critical size range (35 g-5. 5 kg); degree of semelparity; smallness of population size; and smallness of geographic range. Those savanna species with annual life histories strongly associated with riparian areas are likely to be in greatest jeopardy. The species which appear to be most vulnerable in northwestern Australia are Conilurus penicillatus, Mesembriomys gouldii, Mesembriomys macrurus, Antechinus bellus, Phascogale tapoatafa and Rattus tunneyi. Our recent benign climatic history has coincided with the great public environmental awakening and upsurge in environmental research and management efforts. This historical accident has probably led us to overstate the negative effects of human impact and also our ability to change the course of biological history by ameliorating human impact. Our distorted view of these factors has further led us to over-emphasize research of a spatial nature to the detriment of temporal studies. We must redress this balance.     

Phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks change the loss of evolutionary history during extinctions

If we are to plan conservation strategies that minimize the loss of evolutionary history through human-caused extinctions, we must understand how this loss is related to phylogenetic patterns in current extinction risks and past speciation rates. Nee & May (1997, Science 278, 692-694) showed that for a randomly evolving clade (i) a single round of random extinction removed relatively little evolutionary history, and (ii) extinction management (choosing which taxa to sacrifice) offered only marginal improvement. However, both speciation rates and extinction risks vary across lineages within real clades. We simulated evolutionary trees with phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks (closely related lineages having similar rates and risks) and then subjected them to several biologically informed models of extinction. Increasing speciation rate variation increases the extinction-management pay-off. When extinction risks vary among lineages but are uncorrelated with speciation rates, extinction removes more history (compared with random trees), but the difference is small. When extinction risks vary and are correlated with speciation rates, history loss can dramatically increase (negative correlation) or decrease (positive correlation) with speciation rate variation. The loss of evolutionary history via human-caused extinctions may therefore be more severe, yet more manageable, than first suggested.     

Losing history: how extinctions prune features from the tree of life

Biodiversity provides many valuable services to humanity; however, rapid expansion of the human population has placed increasing pressure on natural systems, and it has been suggested that we may be entering a sixth mass extinction. There is an urgent need, therefore, to prioritize conservation efforts if we are to maintain the provisioning of such service in the future. Phylogenetic diversity (PD), the summed branch lengths that connect species on the tree-of-life, might provide a valuable metric for conservation prioritization because it has been argued to capture feature diversity. Frequently, PD is estimated in millions of years, and therefore implicitly assumes an evolutionary model in which features diverge gradually over time. Here, I explore the expected loss of feature diversity when this assumption is violated. If evolution tends to slow down over time, as might be the case following adaptive radiations, losses of feature diversity might be relatively small. However, if evolution occurs in rapid bursts, following a punctuated model, impacts of extinctions might be much greater. PD captures many important properties, but if we use it as a proxy for feature diversity, we first need to ensure that we have the correct evolutionary model.     

Symposium review: biology,ecology and life history of bluefish

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries -     

Differences in life history traits of relatedEpilobium species: Clonality, seed size and seed number

Small changes in morphology can affect the performance and functions of organisms and hence their ecological success. In modular constructed plants, contrasting growth strategies may be realized by differences in the spatial arrangement and size of shoots. Such differences change the way in which meristems and resources are assigned to various functions during the lifespan of a plant. If such changes include the capacity to spread clonally, sexual reproduction may also be affected. I compare patterns in vegetative growth and sexual reproductive traits in four allopatric species ofEpilobium which are sometimes considered as subspecies of a single polymorphic taxon. The four species differ in the location of the buds which annually renew the aerial shoot system.E. dodonaei andE. steveni do not spread clonally and are characterized by a shrub-like habit.E. fleischeri, a species occurring only in the Alps, andE. colchicum, which occurs in the upper region of the Caucasus mountains, both produce buds on horizontal roots or plagiotropic shoots. Both alpine species exhibiting clonal growth have smaller shoots, fewer fruits and smaller seeds than the lowland species. An intraspecific trade-off between seed number per fruit and seed mass is realized. Both alpine species produce more seeds per fruit at the expense of seed mass. The morphological relationship between the four species and their geographical distribution suggest that clonal growth inE. fleischeri (restricted to the Alps) andE. colchicum (restricted to the Caucasus) is adaptively associated with the stressful conditions of alpine habitats. Our results suggest that clonal growth is not necessarily correlated with reduced reproduction by seeds. The success of plants which are already established may largely depend on clonal spread, but the colonization of new habitats depends on the production of a large number of small seeds with high dispersability.     

Low dispersal ability and habitat specificity promote extinctions in rare but not in widespread species: the Orthoptera of Germany

Local extinctions are often non‐randomly associated with range size, dispersal ability and habitat specificity, as well as body size, sexual dimorphism and phylogeny. We used a large data set of the Orthoptera species (bush crickets, crickets, grasshoppers) occurring in Germany and compared the number of occupied grid cells before 1980 to those occupied after 1980, corrected for monitoring intensity. The number of grid cells in which a species went extinct was non‐linearly related to the number of occupied grid cells per species. Using generalized linear modelling we analysed extinction in relation to national distribution (the number of occupied grid cells before 1980), dispersal ability (derived from a large body of literature concerning wing development, colonization dynamics and within‐habitat mobility), habitat specificity (moisture specialists versus generalists), potential reproduction (the number of ovarioles), the degree of sexual size dimorphism and phylogeny (twelve clades). Species with a large global range size also had a large national range size. Species with a large range experienced more total extinction events than species with smaller ranges but relatively fewer compared to range size. The latter relationship was largely shaped by the dispersal ability of the species: the interactions of range size×dispersal ability and range size×habitat specificity explained almost one third of the variation in the number of extinction events. Species with high dispersal ability went extinct in a similar number of grid cells irrespective of their range size. By contrast, species with low dispersal ability went extinct in proportion to their range size. Therefore, comparing the speed of extinction across species in the conventional way of extinction rates (that is the percentage of range contraction) might be flawed because it only applies to species with low dispersal ability. Sexual size dimorphism was not a significant predictor of extinction. Extinction was not concentrated on particular clades.     

Late Quaternary environmental and climate history of Rauer Group, East Antarctica

The Rauer Group is an archipelago in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. The ice-free islands and the surrounding shallow marine areas provide valuable archives for the reconstruction of the late Pleistocene and Holocene environmental and climatic history of the region. Two sediment records from two marine inlets of Rauer Group have been studied for their sedimentological, geochemical, and biological characteristics. Radiocarbon ages from one of the inlets indicate ice-free conditions within the last glacial cycle, probably during the second half of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Subsequent ice sheet coverage of Rauer Group during the Last Glacial Maxiumum (LGM) can be inferred from a till layer recovered in one of the basins. The inlets became ice-free prior to 11,200 cal yr BP, when biogenic sedimentation started. Deglacial processes in the catchments, however, influenced the inlets until ~ 9200 cal yr BP as evidenced by the input of minerogenic material. Marine productivity under relatively open water conditions indicates an early Holocene climate optimum until 8200 cal yr BP, which is followed by a cooler period with increased sea ice. Warmer conditions are inferred for the mid Holocene, when both basins experienced an input of freshwater between ~ 5700-3500 cal yr BP, probably due to ice-sheet melting and increased precipitation on the islands. Neoglacial cooling in the late Holocene since c. 3500 cal yr BP is reflected by an increase in sea ice in both inlets.     

Ecoimmunology and microbial ecology: Contributions to avian behavior,physiology, and life history

Bacteria have had a fundamental impact on vertebrate evolution not only by affecting the evolution of the immune system, but also generating complex interactions with behavior and physiology. Advances in molecular techniques have started to reveal the intricate ways in which bacteria and vertebrates have coevolved. Here, we focus on birds as an example system for understanding the fundamental impact bacteria have had on the evolution of avian immune defenses, behavior, physiology, reproduction and life histories. The avian egg has multiple characteristics that have evolved to enable effective defense against pathogenic attack. Microbial risk of pathogenic infection is hypothesized to vary with life stage, with early life risk being maximal at either hatching or fledging. For adult birds, microbial infection risk is also proposed to vary with habitat and life stage, with molt inducing a period of increased vulnerability. Bacteria not only play an important role in shaping the immune system as well as trade-offs with other physiological systems, but also for determining digestive efficiency and nutrient uptake. The relevance of avian microbiomes for avian ecology, physiology and behavior is highly topical and will likely impact on our understanding of avian welfare, conservation, captive breeding as well as for our understanding of the nature of host-microbe coevolution.     

Xmrks the spot: life history tradeoffs,sexual selection and the evolutionary ecology of oncogenesis

In a classic paper, George Williams (1957) argued that alleles promoting reproductive success early in life may be favoured by selection, even if they reduce the lifespan of individuals that bear the allele. A variety of evidence supports the theory that such ‘antagonistic pleiotropy’ is a major factor contributing to the evolution of senescence ( Ljubuncic & Reznick 2009 ), but examples of specific alleles known to fulfil Williams’ criteria remain rare, in both humans and other animals (e.g. Alexander et al. 2007 ; Kulminski et al. 2010 ). An intriguing example in this issue of Molecular Ecology ( Fernandez & Bowser 2010 ) demonstrates that both natural and sexual selection may favour melanoma‐promoting oncogene alleles in the fish genus Xiphophorus.     

The historical assembly of continental biotas: Late Quaternary range-shifting, areas of endemism, and bio-geographic structure in the North American mammal fauna

A controversial question in biogeography and ecology involves the extent to which vicariance and dispersal interact to determine the structure of continental biotic assemblages, Accumulating evidence of distributional changes during the past 40 000 yr (Late Quaternary) has suggested to ecologists that changes in geographic ranges during the Pleistocene were of sufficient magnitude to erode prior associations between earth and biotic evolution in continental biotas. This paper first argues that this question can only he addressed by examining the magnitude of Late Quaternary range-shifting at the spatial scale established within the framework of historical historical geography (e.g., areas of endemism) rather than that of ecology (e.g., local community assemblages); and second reassesses patterns of range-shifting in the FAUNMAP data base recording Late Quaternary distributions of North American mammals. At the scale of geo-morphological provinces. North American rodents have exhibited highly stable distributions during this time frame, suggesting that previous inferences drawn from analyses of stability at a local community scale are not relevant to questions of congruence between earth and biotic history at regional or continental scales, A comprehensive understanding of processes underlying the assembly of continental biotas still requires incorporation of biogeographic patterns developed well before episodes of Late Quaternary climatic turbulence.     

Locomotor behavior,body size,and comparative ecology of seven Surinam monkeys

The locomotor behavior, of seven sympatric species of New World monkeys—Saguinus midas midas, Saimiri sciureus, Pithecia pithecia, Chiropotes satanas chiropotes, Cebus apella apella, Alouatta seniculus, and Ateles paniscus panisus—was studied at the Raleighvallen-Voltzberg Nature Reserve in Central Surinam. This paper examines the way in which locomotor behavior is related to body size and to ecological parameters such as forest stratification, forest type, and diet. Locomotor behavior is clearly related to the size of the species; with increasing size, the amount of climbing increases and the amount of leaping decreases. In general, larger monkeys use larger arboreal supports; however, Saguinus midas midas uses relatively larger, and Ateles paniscus paniscus relatively smaller supports than expected from body size alone. Leaping is associated with use of the forest understory and with use of liane forest. Other types of locomotion are associated with main canopy use in a variety of forest types. There are no consistent associations between diet and either locomotor behavior or forest utilization; rather, monkeys with similar diets show locomotor and habitat differentiation.     

Determinants of gender in Jack-in-the-pulpit: the influence of plant size and reproductive history

Summary Jack-in-the-pulpit, Arisaema triphyllum, is a perennial forest herb with the ability to change sex. At two sites in upstate New York, plant sex was correlated with plant size: males were smaller than females, nonflowering plants were smaller than males. Changes in plant size were accompanied by changes in sex. Sex change occurred quite frequently; at one site, 8% of nonflowering plants, 64% of males, and 63% of females changed their sex from one season to the next. The probability that a plant will change size and sex between years was altered by artificial defoliation and by the production of seeds, but was not affected by supplementing plants with nutrient fertilizer. Discriminant analysis indicated that several historical factors significantly affected plant sex: a model including the variables of current plant size, previous year's plant size, and previous year's sex was significantly better at predicting the current sex of individuals than was a model containing only current plant size. However, even the consideration of these three variables left up to a third of the plants misclassified with respect to gender. This analysis explains in part why plants at the two sites changed sex at different sizes, but it is likely that other factors-e.g. genetic differences-are involved.     

Late Quaternary history of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Four radiolarian assemblages have been defined in recent seafloor sediments of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The distribution of these assemblages corresponds to the modern pattern of oceanic circulation and water mass structure in this region: the eastern Pacific shallow permanent thermocline and the Equatorial Undercurrent; Peru Current upwelling and the oxygen minimum; the subtropical water mass; warm western tropical water and the North Equatorial Countercurrent. In twelve cores chosen to transect the region both longitudinally and latitudinally, the distribution of these four assemblages has been reconstructed for six time-intervals during the last 127,000 years: 18,000 B.P. (glacial Stage 2); 36,000 B.P. and 52,000 B.P. (interstadial Stage 3); 65,000 B.P. (glacial Stage 4); 82,000 B.P. and 120,000 B.P. (interglacial Stage 5). Atmospheric and oceanic circulation changes through time have been inferred from the reconstructed microfossil assemblage distributions. Changes in assemblage distributions indicate that variations in intensity, direction and mean position of the tradewinds caused marked changes in the oceanic circulation patterns through the last glacial cycle.Near the end of interglacial Stage 5, the disappearance of the North Equatorial Countercurrent from the eastern Pacific suggests that the mean position of the tradewinds was shifted to the south approximately 5° of latitude relative to the modern position, so that the Northeast trades prevented the flow of the North Equatorial Countercurrent into the eastern Pacific. Near the end of interstadial Stage 3, a change in wind direction occurred from predominantly zonal winds, which enhance equatorial divergence and surfacing of the Equatorial Undercurrent, to more meridional winds, which enhance coastal upwelling associated with the Peru Current.In the tropical Pacific Ocean, late Quaternary changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation are linked with times of continental ice sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the interglacial-to-glacial transitions across oxygen isotope stage boundaries $\text{5}\text{4}$ and $\text{3}\text{2}$). The major changes in circulation seem to occur a few thousand years in advance of the glacial episodes, at or near periods of ice sheet growth. This relationship indicates that changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropics led and influenced the development of conditions suitable for polar and continental ice sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere.     

A triangular relationship between leaf size and seed size among woody species: allometry, ontogeny, ecology and taxonomy

 A hypothesized relationship between seed weight and leaf size was investigated for 58 diverse British (semi-)woody species. Interspecific variation in leaf size of adult plants corresponded allometrically with interspecific variation in the weight of an infructescence (seed-bearing inflorescence). The relationship between seed size and leaf size of adult plants was triangular. The corners of the triangle were interpreted in terms of ecological strategy. Medium-sized infructescences, small seeds and large leaves were seen among medium-sized, fast-growing, earlier-successional, mostly deciduous shrubs and trees; small infructescences, small seeds and small leaves mostly among low, slow-growing evergreens from stress-prone, proclimax habitats; and large infructescences, large seeds and large leaves among slow-growing, later-successional trees of potential competitive vigour. The hypothesis that the combination of large seeds and small leaves is allometrically unlikely was supported by the data. The roles of ontogeny and taxonomic relatedness in the seed size-leaf size relationship were examined by correlative and taxonomic analyses of seed, plant and leaf size during the unfolding of the life history from seed through two seedling phases to adulthood. Deciduous versus evergreen leaf habit was a source of deviation from the otherwise linear allometric relationships during ontogenetic development, none of which were, individually, confounded significantly with taxonomy. Received: 2 March 1998 / Accepted: 15 October 1998     

Insights into life history theory: a brood size manipulation on a southern hemisphere species,Tachycineta leucorrhoa,reveals a fast pace of life

Life history traits exhibit substantial geographical variation associated with the pace of life. Species with a slow pace are expected to invest more in their future/residual reproductive value and are more common at tropical latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes, with a faster pace, are expected to prioritize the current reproductive effort. Most evidence supporting this pattern comes from studies conducted in tropical and north temperate species; very little is known about patterns in southern South American species. Here, we describe the life history of a southern swallow Tachycineta leucorrhoa and use an experimental approach to test their breeding strategy over four breeding seasons. We manipulated brood size for 105 nests of white‐rumped swallows to measure whether costs of reproduction were borne by adults or nestlings as alternative selection strategies towards maintaining residual or current reproductive value. Adults increased their feeding effort in enlarged broods, at least enough to maintain nestlings’ development/growth. In addition, adults decreased the number of visits to the nest (without having a negative effect on nestlings) in reduced broods. We did not detect differences in fledging success among treatments, suggesting there were no differences in nestlings’ survival. However, enlarged broods more frequently incurred in complete nest failure, suggesting only some adults were able to cope with increased costs of reproduction. We conclude this species is characterized by a fast pace of life similar to their northern congeners and less like its tropical ones. This is one of the first studies to use an experimental approach to test a life history hypothesis of pace of life using data from a southern South American species. We encourage researches to include southern species when evaluating latitudinal variations as we still do not have enough evidence to assume all southern subtropical species are indeed similar to tropical ones.     

Scaling of growth and life history traits relative to body size, brain size, and metabolic rate in lorises and galagos (Lorisidae, primates)

A broad range of variation in body size, brain size, and metabolic rate occurs within the primate family Lorisidae, thus providing an opportunity to examine the relationship of these three parameters to variation in growth and life history traits. Data on adult body weight, gestation length, lactation length, age at first estrus, litter size, and growth parameters were collected from a captive colony of four lorisid species, Loris tardigradus, Nycticebus coucang, Galago crassicaudatus, and G. senegalensis. The data presented here constitute the most complete life history information available for these poorly understood prosimian species. Correlation and allometric analyses were performed to determine the relationships between variables. Among the lorisids studied, adult body weight, adult cranial capacity, and relative cranial capacity did not predict variation in life history traits. Adult basal metabolic rate predicted most of the variability in gestation length, lactation length, and growth parameters. Lorisines differ from similarly sized galagines in having lower basal metabolic rates, slower growth rates, slower developmental rates, and smaller litter sizes, resulting in reduced reproductive potential. This may be a consequence of lorisine adaptation to a diet of toxic insects. Metabolic rate and diet may be among the most important parameters to examine in any study of life history evolution.