Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Agriculture erases climate‐driven β‐diversity in Neotropical bird communities

Earth is experiencing multiple global changes that will, together, determine the fate of many species. Yet, how biological communities respond to concurrent stressors at local‐to‐regional scales remains largely unknown. In particular, understanding how local habitat conversion interacts with regional climate change to shape patterns in β‐diversity—differences among sites in their species compositions—is critical to forecast communities in the Anthropocene. Here, we study patterns in bird β‐diversity across land‐use and precipitation gradients in Costa Rica. We mapped forest cover, modeled regional precipitation, and collected data on bird community composition, vegetation structure, and tree diversity across 120 sites on 20 farms to answer three questions. First, do bird communities respond more strongly to changes in land use or climate in northwest Costa Rica? Second, does habitat conversion eliminate β‐diversity across climate gradients? Third, does regional climate control how communities respond to habitat conversion and, if so, how? After correcting for imperfect detection, we found that local land‐use determined community shifts along the climate gradient. In forests, bird communities were distinct between sites that differed in vegetation structure or precipitation. In agriculture, however, vegetation structure was more uniform, contributing to 7%–11% less bird turnover than in forests. In addition, bird responses to agriculture and climate were linked: agricultural communities across the precipitation gradient shared more species with dry than wet forest communities. These findings suggest that habitat conversion and anticipated climate drying will act together to exacerbate biotic homogenization.     

Influence of within‐patch habitat quality on high‐Andean Polylepis bird abundance

Habitat restoration strategies for fragmented high Andean forest landscapes must consider the influence of within‐patch habitat quality on bird abundance. I examined vegetation and bird abundance at three locations within a highly fragmented Polylepis forest landscape in the Cordillera Vilcanota, southern Peru. Across the landscape, there was significant variation in the vegetation structure of Polylepis forest patches of different size categories, especially in terms of tree girth, tree height, tree density, and canopy vegetation structure. Principal Component Analysis extracted five factors of habitat quality, which together accounted for 74.2% of the variability within 15 habitat variables. Polylepis bird species differed in their responses to habitat quality but, overall, variation in Polylepis bird abundance was not fully captured by the range of habitat quality variables. Tall, dense vegetation cover was clearly important for 11 conservation‐important species, a high density of large trees was important for 10 species and primary forest ground cover was important for eight species. Habitat quality exhibited no significant influence on the abundance of only one species –Asthenes urubambensis. The abundance of seven species was associated with lower elevation forest, but only one species was associated with higher elevation forest. Management of habitat quality in large and medium remnant forest patches throughout the Cordillera Vilcanota, particularly in the 3800–4200 m elevation range, will be a cornerstone in ensuring the persistence of the majority of conservation‐important bird species populations.     

Spatial and temporal changes in bird assemblages in forest fragments in an eastern Amazonian savannah

We investigated the effects of forest fragmentation on bird assemblages in an Amazonian savannah landscape with forest fragments that have been isolated for more than 100 years. The study was conducted in areas surrounding the village of Alter do Chão (2°31′S, 55°00′W), Santarém, Brazil. Bird surveys and measurements of tree density were undertaken in 25 areas, with 19 plots in forest fragments of different sizes and six in an area of continuous forest. Data on forest‐fragment size, perimeter, and isolation were obtained from a georeferenced satellite image. Variation in number of bird species recorded per plot was not related to vegetation structure (tree density). The number of bird species recorded per plot increased significantly only with fragment area, but was not influenced by fragment shape or degree of isolation, even when considering species from the savannah matrix in the analysis. Fragments had fewer rare species. Multivariate ordination analyses (multiple dimensional scaling, [MDS]) indicated that bird species composition changed along a gradient from small to large forest fragments and continuous‐forest areas. In the Amazonian savannah landscapes of Alter do Chão, the organization and composition of bird assemblages in forest fragments are affected by local long‐term forest‐fragmentation processes. Differences in the number of bird species recorded per plot and assemblage composition between forest fragments and continuous forest were not influenced by forest structure, suggesting that the observed patterns in species composition result from the effects of fragmentation per se rather than from preexisting differences in vegetation structure between sites. Nevertheless, despite their long history of isolation, the forest fragments still preserve a large proportion (on average 80%) of the avifauna found in continuous‐forest areas. The fragments at Alter do Chão are surrounded by natural (rather than planted) grassland, with many trees in the savannah matrix and the landscape has vast areas covered by forest, which may have helped to ameliorate the influences of forest fragmentation.     

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi‐arid forests of Inner Asia

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi‐arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi‐arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi‐arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming‐induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi‐arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree‐ring widths. These ring‐width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi‐arid sites than at semi‐humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007–2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi‐arid forests.     

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate‐driven species migrations

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1‐ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70–2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate‐driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr^?1 (95% CI = 0.0005–0.0132 °C yr^?1). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr^?1, migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction.     

Accelerating regrowth of temperate‐maritime forests due to environmental change

To understand how environmental changes have influenced forest productivity, stemwood biomass (B) dynamics were analyzed at 1267 permanent inventory plots, covering a combined 209 ha area of unmanaged temperate‐maritime forest in southwest British Columbia, Canada. Net stemwood production (ΔB) was derived from periodic remeasurements of B collected over a 40‐year measurement period (1959–1998) in stands ranging from 20 to 150 years old. Comparison between the integrated age response of net stemwood production, ΔB(A), and the age response of stemwood biomass, B(A), suggested a 58 ± 11% increase in ΔB between the first 40 years of the chronosequence period (1859–1898) and the measurement period. To estimate extrinsic forcing on ΔB, several different candidate models were developed to remove variation explained by intrinsic factors. All models exhibited temporal bias, with positive trends in (observed minus predicted) residual ΔB ranging between of 0.40 and 0.64% yr^?1. Applying the same methods to stemwood growth (G) indicated residual increases ranging from 0.43 and 0.67% yr^?1. Higher trend estimates corresponded with models that included site index (SI) as a predictor, which may reflect exaggeration of the age‐decline in SI tables. Choosing a model that excluded SI, suggested that ΔB increased by 0.40 ± 0.18% yr^?1, while G increased by 0.43 ± 0.12% yr^?1 over the measurement period. Residual G was significantly correlated with atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), temperature (T), and climate moisture index (CMI). However, models driven with climate and CO₂, alone, could not simultaneously explain long‐term and measurement‐period trends without additional representation of indirect effects, perhaps reflecting compound interest on direct physiological responses to environmental change. Evidence of accelerating forest regrowth highlights the value of permanent inventories to detect and understand systematic changes in forest productivity caused by environmental change.     

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species‐specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species‐specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate forest response to climate–wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium–high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate‐specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought‐tolerant species over less drought‐tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid‐elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape‐level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome‐based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century.     

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.     

Temperature‐induced water stress in high‐latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming

The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration (pCO₂) and temperature on high‐latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree‐ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth‐century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ¹³C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high‐latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth‐Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ¹³C in response to twentieth century pCO₂ rise, a significant negative relationship (r = ?0.53, P < 0.0001) between the average, annual Δ¹³C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ¹³C value of trees growing at high latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water‐use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO₂. We conclude that annual tree‐ring records from northern high‐latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO₂ rise across the twentieth century.     

Linking radial growth patterns and moderate‐severity disturbance dynamics in boreal old‐growth forests driven by recurrent insect outbreaks: A tale of opportunities,successes, and failures

In boreal landscapes, emphasis is currently placed on close‐to‐nature management strategies, which aim to maintain the biodiversity and ecosystem services related to old‐growth forests. The success of these strategies, however, depends on an accurate understanding of the dynamics within these forests. While moderate‐severity disturbances have recently been recognized as important drivers of boreal forests, little is known about their effects on stand structure and growth. This study therefore aimed to reconstruct the disturbance and postdisturbance dynamics in boreal old‐growth forests that are driven by recurrent moderate‐severity disturbances. We studied eight primary old‐growth forests in Québec, Canada, that have recorded recurrent and moderately severe spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreaks over the 20th century. We applied an innovative dendrochronological approach based on the combined study of growth patterns and releases to reconstruct stand disturbance and postdisturbance dynamics. We identified nine growth patterns; they represented trees differing in age, size, and canopy layer. These patterns highlighted the ability of suppressed trees to rapidly fill gaps created by moderate‐severity disturbances through a single and significant increase in radial growth and height. Trees that are unable to attain the canopy following the disturbance tend to remain in the lower canopy layers, even if subsequent disturbances create new gaps. This combination of a low stand height typical of boreal forests, periodic disturbances, and rapid canopy closure often resulted in stands constituted mainly of dominant and codominant trees, similar to even‐aged forests. Overall, this study underscored the resistance of boreal old‐growth forests owing to their capacity to withstand repeated moderate‐severity disturbances. Moreover, the combined study of growth patterns and growth release demonstrated the efficacy of such an approach for improving the understanding of the fine‐scale dynamics of natural forests. The results of this research will thus help develop silvicultural practices that approximate the moderate‐severity disturbance dynamics observed in primary and old‐growth boreal forests.     

Evaluation of climate‐related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests

Turnover concepts in state‐of‐the‐art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation‐based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation‐based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation‐based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large‐scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models.     

Responses of soil carbon sequestration to climate‐smart agriculture practices: A meta‐analysis

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) management practices (e.g., conservation tillage, cover crops, and biochar applications) have been widely adopted to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring crop productivity. However, current measurements regarding the influences of CSA management practices on SOC sequestration diverge widely, making it difficult to derive conclusions about individual and combined CSA management effects and bringing large uncertainties in quantifying the potential of the agricultural sector to mitigate climate change. We conducted a meta‐analysis of 3,049 paired measurements from 417 peer‐reviewed articles to examine the effects of three common CSA management practices on SOC sequestration as well as the environmental controlling factors. We found that, on average, biochar applications represented the most effective approach for increasing SOC content (39%), followed by cover crops (6%) and conservation tillage (5%). Further analysis suggested that the effects of CSA management practices were more pronounced in areas with relatively warmer climates or lower nitrogen fertilizer inputs. Our meta‐analysis demonstrated that, through adopting CSA practices, cropland could be an improved carbon sink. We also highlight the importance of considering local environmental factors (e.g., climate and soil conditions and their combination with other management practices) in identifying appropriate CSA practices for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring crop productivity.     

Tree rings provide no evidence of a CO2 fertilization effect in old‐growth subalpine forests of western Canada

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are now 1.7 times higher than the preindustrial values. Although photosynthetic rates are hypothesized to increase in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, results from in situ experiments are inconsistent in supporting a CO₂ fertilization effect of tree growth. Tree‐ring data provide a historical record of tree‐level productivity that can be used to evaluate long‐term responses of tree growth. We use tree‐ring data from old‐growth, subalpine forests of western Canada that have not had a stand‐replacing disturbance for hundreds of years to determine if growth has increased over 19th and 20th centuries. Our sample consisted of 5,858 trees belonging to five species distributed over two sites in the coastal zone and two in the continental climate of the interior. We calculated annual increments in tree basal area, adjusted these increments for tree size and age, and tested whether there was a detectable temporal trend in tree growth over the 19th and 20th centuries. We found a similar pattern in 20th century growth trends among all species at all sites. Growth during the 19th century was mostly stable or increasing, with the exception of one of the coastal sites, where tree growth was slightly decreasing; whereas growth during the 20th century consistently decreased. The unexpected decrease in growth during the 20th century indicates that there was no CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis. We compared the growth trends from our four sites to the trends simulated by seven Earth System Models, and saw that most of the models did not predict these growth declines. Overall, our results indicate that these old‐growth forests are unlikely to increase their carbon storage capacity in response to rising atmospheric CO₂, and thus are unlikely to contribute substantially to offsetting future carbon emissions.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Quantifying climate–growth relationships at the stand level in a mature mixed‐species conifer forest

A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year‐to‐year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree‐ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year‐to‐year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand‐level (as opposed to species‐level) growth. We argue that stand‐level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed‐species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand‐level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year‐to‐year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand‐level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species‐ and canopy‐position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand‐level biomass increment than to species‐level or canopy‐position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand‐level growth varies less from to year‐to‐year than species‐level or canopy‐position growth responses. By assessing stand‐level growth response to climate, we provide an alternative perspective on climate–growth relationships of forests, improving our understanding of forest growth dynamics under a fluctuating climate.