Species traits suggest European mammals facing the greatest climate change are also least able to colonize new locations

Aim

The risk climate change poses to biodiversity is often estimated by forecasting the areas that will be climatically suitable for species in the future and measuring the distance of the “range shifts” species would have to make to reach these areas. Species’ traits could indicate their capacity to undergo range shifts. However, it is not clear how range‐shift capacity influences risk. We used traits from a recent evidence review to measure the relative potential of species to track changing climatic conditions.

Location

Europe.

Time period

Baseline period (1961–1990) and forecast period (2035–2064).

Major taxa studied

62 mammal species.

Methods

We modelled species distributions using two general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to calculate three metrics of “exposure” to climate change: range area gained, range area lost and distance moved by the range margin. We identified traits that could inform species’ range‐shift capacity (i.e., potential to establish new populations and proliferate, and thus undertake range shifts), from a recent evidence‐based framework. The traits represent ecological generalization and reproductive strategy. We ranked species according to each metric of exposure and range‐shift capacity, calculating sensitivity to ranking methods, and synthesized both exposure and range‐shift capacity into “risk syndromes.”

Results

Many species studied whose survival depends on colonizing new areas were relatively unlikely to undergo range shifts. Under the worst‐case scenario, 62% of species studied were relatively highly exposed. 47% were highly exposed and had relatively low range‐shift capacity. Only 14% of species faced both low exposure and high range‐shift capacity. Both range‐shift and exposure metrics had a greater effect on risk assessments than climate models.

Main conclusions

The degree to which species’ potential ranges will be altered by climate change often does not correspond to species’ range‐shift capacities. Both exposure and range‐shift capacity should be considered when evaluating biodiversity risk from climate change.

     

Fishing pressure and species traits affect stream fish invasions both directly and indirectly

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.

     

Standardized genetic diversity‐life history correlates for improved genetic resource management of Neotropical trees

Aim

Life history traits and range size are key correlates of genetic diversity in trees. We used a standardized sampling protocol to explore how life history traits and range size relate to the magnitude, variance and structuring (both between‐ and within‐population) of genetic diversity in Neotropical tree species.

Location

The Neotropics

Methods

We present a meta‐analysis of new population genetic data generated for 23 Neotropical tree species (=2,966 trees, 86 populations) across a shared and broad geographic area. We compared established population genetic metrics across these species (e.g., genetic diversity, population structure, fine‐scale genetic structure), plus we estimated the rarely used variance in genetic diversity among populations. We used a multivariate, maximum likelihood, multimodel inference approach to explore the relative influence of life history traits and range size on patterns of neutral genetic diversity.

Results

We found that pioneer and narrow range species had lower levels but greater variance in genetic diversity—signs of founder effects and stronger genetic drift. Animal‐dispersed species had lower population differentiation, indicating extensive gene flow. Abiotically dispersed and pioneer species had stronger fine‐scale genetic structure, suggesting restricted seed dispersal and family cohort establishment.

Main conclusions

Our multivariable and multispecies approach allows ecologically relevant conclusions, since knowing whether one parameter has an effect, or one species shows a response in isolation, is dependent on the combination of traits expressed by a species. Our study demonstrates the influence of ecological processes on the distribution of genetic variation in tropical trees, and will help guide genetic resource management, and contribute to predicting the impacts of land use change.

     

The phylogenetic and functional diversity of regional breeding bird assemblages is reduced and constricted through urbanization

Aim

Urbanization broadly affects the phylogenetic and functional diversity of natural communities through a variety of processes including habitat loss and the introduction of non‐native species. Due to the challenge of acquiring direct measurements, these effects have been studied primarily using “space‐for‐time” substitution where spatial urbanization gradients are used to infer the consequences of urbanization occurring across time. The ability of alternative sampling designs to replicate the findings derived using space‐for‐time substitution has not been tested.

Location

Global.

Methods

We contrasted the phylogenetic and functional diversity of breeding bird assemblages in 58 cities worldwide with the corresponding regional breeding bird assemblages estimated using geographic range maps.

Results

Compared to regional assemblages, urban assemblages contained lower phylogenetic diversity, lower phylogenetic beta diversity, a reduction in the least evolutionary distinct species and the loss of the most evolutionarily distinct species. We found no evidence that these effects were related to the presence of non‐native species. Urban assemblages contained fewer aquatic species and fewer aquatic foraging species. The distribution of body size and range size narrowed for urban assemblages with the loss of species at both tails of the distribution, especially large bodied and broadly distributed species. Urban assemblages contained a greater proportion of species classified as passerines, doves or pigeons; species identified as granivores; species that forage within vegetation or in the air; and species with more generalized associations with foraging strata.

Main conclusions

Urbanization is associated with the overall reduction and constriction of phylogenetic and functional diversity, results that largely replicate those generated using space‐for‐time substitution, increasing our confidence in the quality of the combined inferences. When direct measurements are unavailable, our findings emphasize the value of developing independent sampling methods that broaden and reinforce our understanding of the ecological implications of urbanization.

     

Identifying the factors that determine the severity and type of alien bird impacts

Aim

To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.

Location

Global.

Methods

Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.

Results

The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.

Main conclusions

Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.

     

Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.

     

Old‐growth forests buffer climate‐sensitive bird populations from warming

Aim

Habitat loss and climate change constitute two of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and theory predicts that these factors may act synergistically to affect population trajectories. Recent evidence indicates that structurally complex old‐growth forest can be cooler than other forest types during spring and summer months, thereby offering potential to buffer populations from negative effects of warming. Old growth may also have higher food and nest‐site availability for certain species, which could have disproportionate fitness benefits as species approach their thermal limits.

Location

Pacific Northwestern United States.

Methods

We predicted that negative effects of climate change on 30‐year population trends of old‐growth‐associated birds should be dampened in landscapes with high proportions of old‐growth forest. We modelled population trends from Breeding Bird Survey data for 13 species as a function of temperature change and proportion old‐growth forest.

Results

We found a significant negative effect of summer warming on only two species. However, in both of these species, this relationship between warming and population decline was not only reduced but reversed, in old‐growth‐dominated landscapes. Across all 13 species, evidence for a buffering effect of old‐growth forest increased with the degree to which species were negatively influenced by summer warming.

Main conclusions

These findings suggest that old‐growth forests may buffer the negative effects of climate change for those species that are most sensitive to temperature increases. Our study highlights a mechanism whereby management strategies to curb degradation and loss of old‐growth forests—in addition to protecting habitat—could enhance biodiversity persistence in the face of climate warming.

     

In search of relevant predictors for marine species distribution modelling using the MarineSPEED benchmark dataset

Aim

Ideally, datasets for species distribution modelling (SDM) contain evenly sampled records covering the entire distribution of the species, confirmed absences and auxiliary ecophysiological data allowing informed decisions on relevant predictors. Unfortunately, these criteria are rarely met for marine organisms for which distributions are too often only scantly characterized and absences generally not recorded. Here, we investigate predictor relevance as a function of modelling algorithms and settings for a global dataset of marine species.

Location

Global marine.

Methods

We selected well‐studied and identifiable species from all major marine taxonomic groups. Distribution records were compiled from public sources (e.g., OBIS, GBIF, Reef Life Survey) and linked to environmental data from Bio‐ORACLE and MARSPEC. Using this dataset, predictor relevance was analysed under different variations of modelling algorithms, numbers of predictor variables, cross‐validation strategies, sampling bias mitigation methods, evaluation methods and ranking methods. SDMs for all combinations of predictors from eight correlation groups were fitted and ranked, from which the top five predictors were selected as the most relevant.

Results

We collected two million distribution records from 514 species across 18 phyla. Mean sea surface temperature and calcite are, respectively, the most relevant and irrelevant predictors. A less clear pattern was derived from the other predictors. The biggest differences in predictor relevance were induced by varying the number of predictors, the modelling algorithm and the sample selection bias correction. The distribution data and associated environmental data are made available through the R package marinespeed and at http://marinespeed.org .

Main conclusions

While temperature is a relevant predictor of global marine species distributions, considerable variation in predictor relevance is linked to the SDM set‐up. We promote the usage of a standardized benchmark dataset (MarineSPEED) for methodological SDM studies.

     

Species’ thermal ranges predict changes in reef fish community structure during 8 years of extreme temperature variation

Aim

To assess whether observed thermal bounds in species’ latitudinal ranges (i.e., realized thermal niches) can be used to predict patterns of occurrence and abundance changes observed during a marine heatwave, relative to other important life history and functional traits.

Location

Rottnest Island, Western Australia.

Methods

A time series of standardized quantitative surveys of reef fishes spanning 8 years of pronounced ocean temperature change is used to test whether accurate predictions on shifts in species occupancy and abundance are possible using species traits.

Results

Species‐level responses in occurrence and abundance were closely related to the mid‐point of their realized thermal niche, more so than body size, range size or trophic level. Most of the species that disappeared from survey counts during the heatwave were characterized by geographic ranges that did not extend to latitudes with temperatures equivalent to the ocean temperature peak during the heatwave. We thus find support for the hypothesis that current distribution limits are set directly or indirectly by temperature and are highly responsive to ocean temperature variability.

Main conclusions

Our study shows that reef fish community structure can change very quickly when exposed to extreme thermal anomalies, in directions predicted from the realized thermal niche of the species present. Such predictions can thus identify species that will be most responsive to changing ocean climate. Continued warming, coupled with periodic extreme heat events, may lead to the loss of ecosystem services and ecological functions, as mobile species relocate to more hospitable climes, while less mobile species may head towards extinction.

     

Phylogenetic dimension of tree communities reveals high conservation value of disturbed tropical rain forests

Aim

The conversion of old‐growth tropical forests into human‐modified landscapes threatens biodiversity worldwide, but its impact on the phylogenetic dimension of remaining communities is still poorly known. Negative and neutral responses of tree phylogenetic diversity to land use change have been reported at local and landscape scales. Here, we hypothesized that such variable responses to disturbance depend on the regional context, being stronger in more degraded rain forest regions with a longer history of land use.

Location

Six regions in Mexico and Brazil.

Methods

We used a large vegetation database (6,923 trees from 686 species) recorded in 98 50‐ha landscapes distributed across two Brazilian and four Mexican regions, which exhibit different degrees of disturbance. In each region, we assessed whether phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities were related to landscape‐scale forest loss, the percentage of shade‐intolerant species (a proxy of local disturbance) and/or the relatedness of decreasing (losers) and increasing (winners) taxa.

Results

Contrary to our expectations, the percentage of forest cover and shade‐intolerant species were weakly related to phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities in all but one region. Loser species were generally as dispersed across the phylogeny as winner species, allowing more degraded, deforested and species‐poorer forests to sustain relatively high levels of evolutionary (phylogenetic) diversity.

Main conclusion

Our findings support previous evidence indicating that traits related to high susceptibility to forest disturbances are convergent or have low phylogenetic signal. More importantly, they reveal that the evolutionary value of disturbed forests is (at least in a phylogenetic sense) much greater than previously thought.

     

Modelling the distribution and compositional variation of plant communities at the continental scale

Aim

We investigate whether (1) environmental predictors allow to delineate the distribution of discrete community types at the continental scale and (2) how data completeness influences model generalization in relation to the compositional variation of the modelled entities.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used comprehensive datasets of two community types of conservation concern in Europe: acidophilous beech forests and base‐rich fens. We computed community distribution models (CDMs) calibrated with environmental predictors to predict the occurrence of both community types, evaluating geographical transferability, interpolation and extrapolation under different scenarios of sampling bias. We used generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to assess the role of geographical and environmental drivers in compositional variation within the predicted distributions.

Results

For the two community types, CDMs computed for the whole study area provided good performance when evaluated by random cross‐validation and external validation. Geographical transferability provided lower but relatively good performance, while model extrapolation performed poorly when compared with interpolation. Generalized dissimilarity modelling showed a predominant effect of geographical distance on compositional variation, complemented with the environmental predictors that also influenced habitat suitability.

Main conclusions

Correlative approaches typically used for modelling the distribution of individual species are also useful for delineating the potential area of occupancy of community types at the continental scale, when using consistent definitions of the modelled entity and high data completeness. The combination of CDMs with GDM further improves the understanding of diversity patterns of plant communities, providing spatially explicit information for mapping vegetation diversity and related habitat types at large scales.

     

Ecological traits modulate bird species responses to forest fragmentation in an Amazonian anthropogenic archipelago

Aim

We assessed patterns of avian species loss and the role of morpho‐ecological traits in explaining species vulnerability to forest fragmentation in an anthropogenic island system. We also contrasted observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy, which are often used to infer species vulnerability.

Location

Tucuruí Hydroelectric Reservoir, eastern Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

We surveyed forest birds within 36 islands (3.4–2,551.5 ha) after 22 years of post‐isolation history. We applied species–area relationships to assess differential patterns of species loss among three data sets: all species, forest specialists and habitat generalists. After controlling for phylogenetic non‐independence, we used observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy separately to build competing models as a function of species traits. The magnitude of the difference between these estimates of island occupancy was contrasted against species detectability.

Results

The rate of species loss as a function of island area reduction was higher for forest specialists than for habitat generalists. Accounting for the area effect, forest fragmentation did not affect the overall number of species regardless of the data set. Only the interactive model including natural abundance, habitat breadth and geographic range size was strongly supported for both estimates of island occupancy. For 30 species with detection probabilities below 30%, detectability‐corrected estimates were at least tenfold higher than those observed. Conversely, differences between estimates were negligible or non‐existent for all 31 species with detection probabilities exceeding 45.5%.

Main conclusions

Predicted decay of avian species richness induced by forest loss is affected by the degree of habitat specialisation of the species under consideration, and may be unrelated to forest fragmentation per se. Natural abundance was the main predictor of species island occupancy, although habitat breadth and geographic range size also played a role. We caution against using occupancy models for low‐detectability species, because overestimates of island occupancy reduce the power of species‐level predictions of vulnerability.

     

The importance of water‐retaining features for biodiversity on artificial intertidal coastal defence structures

Aim

Artificial coastal defence structures are proliferating in response to rising and stormier seas. These structures provide habitat for many species but generally support lower biodiversity than natural habitats. This is primarily due to the absence of environmental heterogeneity and water‐retaining features on artificial structures. We compared the epibiotic communities associated with artificial coastal defence structures and natural habitats to ask the following questions: (1) is species richness on emergent substrata greater in natural than artificial habitats and is the magnitude of this difference greater at mid than upper tidal levels; (2) is species richness greater in rock pools than emergent substrata and is the magnitude of this difference greater in artificial than natural habitats; and (3) in artificial habitats, is species richness in rock pools greater at mid than upper tidal levels?

Location

British Isles.

Methods

Standard non‐destructive random sampling compared the effect of habitat type and tidal height on epibiota on natural rocky shores and artificial coastal defence structures.

Results

Natural emergent substrata supported greater species richness than artificial substrata. Species richness was greater at mid than upper tidal levels, particularly in artificial habitats. Rock pools supported greater species richness than emergent substrata, and this difference was more pronounced in artificial than natural habitats. Rock pools in artificial habitats supported greater species richness at mid than upper tidal levels.

Main conclusions

Artificial structures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats. This is primarily due to the lack of habitat heterogeneity in artificial habitats. Artificial structures can be modified to provide rock pools that promote biodiversity. The effect of rock pool creation will be more pronounced at mid than upper tidal levels. The challenge now is to establish at what tidal height the effect of pools becomes negligible and to determine the rock pool dimensions for optimum habitat enhancement.

     

Contrasting responses in community structure and phenology of migratory and non‐migratory pollinators to urbanization

Aim

Anthropogenic landscape change, such as urbanization, can affect community structure and ecological interactions. Furthermore, changes in ambient temperature and resource availability due to urbanization may affect migratory and non‐migratory species differently. However, the response of migratory species to urbanization is poorly investigated, and knowledge for invertebrates in particular is lacking. Our aim was to investigate whether there was a shift in community structure and phenology of hoverflies in urban landscapes, depending on migratory status.

Location

Switzerland.

Methods

Using a paired design, we compared urban and rural landscapes to investigate the impact of urbanization on the abundance, diversity and phenology of hoverflies. Furthermore, we tested whether migratory and non‐migratory species responded differently to urbanization.

Results

We observed a difference in the response of migratory and non‐migratory hoverfly communities. Although the abundance of hoverflies was higher in the rural ecosystem, driven by a high abundance of migratory species, there was no difference in species richness between the land use types. However, the community structure of non‐migratory species was significantly different between urban and rural ecosystems. The phenology of hoverflies differed between the two ecosystems, with an earlier appearance in the year of migratory species in urban landscapes.

Main conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the response of migratory insect communities to urbanization. We demonstrated that migratory and non‐migratory hoverflies respond differently to urbanization. This highlights the importance of differentiating between trait and mobility groups to understand community assemblage patterns in anthropogenic landscapes. The differences in phenology supports the growing evidence that urbanization not only affects the phenology of vegetation, but also affects the higher trophic levels. Changes in the phenology and community composition of species as a result of anthropogenic landscape change may have important implications for the maintenance of key ecosystem functions, such as pollination.

     

Unravelling the evolutionary origins of biogeographic assemblages

Aim

Floristic and faunal diversity fall within species assemblages that can be grouped into distinct biomes or ecoregions. Understanding the origins of such biogeographic assemblages helps illuminate the processes shaping present‐day diversity patterns and identifies regions with unique or distinct histories. While the fossil record is often sparse, dated phylogenies can provide a window into the evolutionary past of these regions. Here, we present a novel phylogenetic approach to investigate the evolutionary origins of present‐day biogeographic assemblages and highlight their conservation value.

Location

Southern Africa.

Methods

We evaluate the evolutionary turnover separating species clusters in space at different time slices to determine the phylogenetic depth at which the signal for their present‐day structure emerges. We suggest present‐day assemblages with distinct evolutionary histories might represent important units for conservation. We apply our method to the vegetation of southern Africa using a dated phylogeny of the woody flora of the region and explore how the evolutionary history of vegetation types compares to common conservation currencies, including species richness, endemism and threat.

Results

We show the differentiation of most present‐day vegetation types can be traced back to evolutionary splits in the Miocene. The woody flora of the Fynbos is the most evolutionarily distinct, and thus has deeper evolutionary roots, whereas the Savanna and Miombo Woodland show close phylogenetic affinities and likely represent a more recent separation. However, evolutionarily distinct phyloregions do not necessarily capture the most unique phylogenetic diversity, nor are they the most species‐rich or threatened.

Main conclusions

Our approach complements analyses of the fossil record and serves as a link to the history of diversification, migration and extinction of lineages within biogeographic assemblages that is separate from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our analysis reveals how phyloregions capture conservation value not represented by traditional biodiversity metrics.

     

Transport pathways shape the biogeography of alien freshwater fishes in Australia

Aim

Changing preferences regarding which species humans have transported to new regions can have major consequences for the potential distribution of alien taxa, but the mechanisms shaping these patterns are poorly understood. We assessed the extent to which changes in human preferences for transporting and introducing alien freshwater fishes have altered their biogeography.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We compiled an up‐to‐date database of alien freshwater fishes established in drainages in Australia before and after the number of established alien fish species doubled (pre‐1970 and post‐1970, respectively). Using metacommunity models, we analysed the influence of species traits and drainage features on the distribution of alien fishes that established pre‐ and post‐1970.

Results

Alien fishes in Australia were introduced via four main transport pathways: acclimatization, aquaculture, biocontrol and ornamental trade. The relative importance of each pathway changed substantially between the two periods, accompanied by changes in the distribution of alien fishes and the variables predicting their distribution. Pre‐1970, most species (64%) were introduced by acclimatization societies for purposes such as angling and biocontrol, and these fish have established in inland drainages more heavily impacted by human activities. In contrast, most of the post‐1970 introductions (69%) were ornamental fishes, with most species established in small, north‐eastern, tropical and subtropical coastal drainages.

Main conclusions

Substantial changes in introduction preferences and transport pathways over time have altered both the patterns and underlying processes shaping the biogeography of alien fishes in Australia. Our findings highlight the need for caution when using historical data to infer potential future distributions of alien species. The continuing spread of alien species means traditional biogeographical units may no longer be identifiable in the foreseeable future.

     

Moving from representation to persistence: The capacity of Australia's National Reserve System to support viable populations of mammals

Aim

Species require sufficiently large and connected areas of suitable habitat to support populations that can persist through change. With extensive alteration of unprotected natural habitat, there is increasing risk that protected areas (PAs) will be too small and isolated to support viable populations in the long term. Consequently, this study addresses the urgent need to assess the capacity of PA estates to facilitate species persistence.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We undertake the first assessment of the capacity of the Australian National Reserve System (NRS) to protect 90 mammal species in the long term, given the size and distribution of individual PAs across the landscape relative to species’ habitat and minimum viable area (MVA) requirements and dispersal capabilities.

Results

While all mammal ranges are represented within the NRS, the conservation capacity declined notably when we refined measures of representation within PAs to include species’ habitat and area requirements. The NRS could not support any viable populations for between three and seven species, depending on the MVA threshold used, and could support less than 10 viable populations for up to a third of the species. Planning and managing PAs for persistence emerged as most important for species with large MVA requirements and limited dispersal capabilities.

Main conclusions

The key species characteristics we identify can help managers recognize species at risk within the current PA estate and guide the types of strategies that would best reduce this risk. We reveal that current representation‐based assessments of PA progress are likely to overestimate the long‐term success of PA estates, obscuring vulnerabilities for many species. It is important that conservation planners and managers are realistic and explicit regarding the role played by different sizes and distributions of PAs, and careful in assuming that the representation of a species within a PA equates to its long‐term conservation.

     

Small variations in climate and soil conditions may have greater influence on multitaxon species occurrences than past and present human activities in temperate mountain forests

Aim

Human activity is known to greatly influence species occurrences. In forest ecosystems, biodiversity is often believed to be influenced by two habitat characteristics: (1) forest continuity, related to a minimum length of time in a wooded state since a threshold date; and (2) stand maturity, related to the availability of late‐developmental‐forest attributes. In a context of ongoing global biodiversity loss, qualifying the effect of past and present human activity on forest ecosystems while taking into account variations in abiotic factors is of primary importance for conservation.

Location

Temperate mountain forests in the Northern Alps.

Method

Based upon a sampling design crossing forest continuity (ancient vs. Recent) and stand maturity (mature vs. overmature), and while controlling for the effect of two major environmental factors, soil and climate, we explored the individual response of saproxylic beetle, springtail, herbaceous plant and epiphytic macrolichen species to past and present human activity.

Results

Forest continuity influenced the occurrence of relatively few species, indicating that past land use had almost no legacy effect on the species occurring in the study forests today. In contrast, stand maturity had an overall positive effect on species occurrences. However, our results showed that species occurrences were more obviously influenced by abiotic conditions. Indeed, beyond the effect of continuity and maturity factors, the probability of presence of numerous species was best explained by climate and soil.

Main conclusions

Overall, we show that species occurrence was more influenced by stand maturity than by forest continuity, but also that site‐specific characteristics were of great importance in explaining the probability of presence for numerous species. In the ecological context of alpine forests, these findings emphasize the need to better control for climatic and edaphic conditions in order to (1) improve accuracy in predicting species occurrence and (2) better design areas of conservation interest.

     

Combined exposure to hydroelectric expansion,climate change and forest loss jeopardies amphibians in the Brazilian Amazon

Aim

Human‐driven impacts constantly threat amphibians, even in largely protected regions such as the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon is home to a great diversity of amphibians, several of them currently threatened with extinction. We investigated how climate change, deforestation and establishment of hydroelectric dams could affect the geographic distribution of Amazonian amphibians by 2030 and midcentury.

Location

The Brazilian Amazon.

Methods

We overlapped the geographic distribution of 255 species with the location of hydroelectric dams, models of deforestation and climate change scenarios for the future.

Results

We found that nearly 67% of all species and 54% of species with high degree of endemism within the Legal Brazilian Amazon would lose habitats due to the hydroelectric overlapping. In addition, deforestation is also a potential threat to amphibians, but had a smaller impact compared to the likely changes in climate. The largest potential range loss would be caused by the likely increase in temperature. We found that five amphibian families would have at least half of the species with over 50% of potential distribution range within the Legal Brazilian Amazon limits threatened by climate change between 2030 and 2050.

Main conclusions

Amphibians in the Amazon are highly vulnerable to climate change, which may cause, directly or indirectly, deleterious biological changes for the group. Under modelled scenarios, the Brazilian Government needs to plan for the development of the Amazon prioritizing landscape changes of low environmental impact and economic development to ensure that such changes do not cause major impacts on amphibian species while reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.

     

Predicting distributions,habitat preferences and associated conservation implications for a genus of rare fishes,seahorses (Hippocampus spp.)

Aim

To identify useful sources of species data and appropriate habitat variables for species distribution modelling on rare species, with seahorses as an example, deriving ecological knowledge and spatially explicit maps to advance global seahorse conservation.

Location

The shallow seas.

Methods

We applied a typical species distribution model (SDM), maximum entropy, to examine the utility of (1) two versions of habitat variables (habitat occurrences vs. proximity to habitats) and (2) three sources of species data: quality research‐grade (RG) data, quality‐unknown citizen science (CS) and museum‐collection (MC) data. We used the best combinations of species data and habitat variables to predict distributions and estimate species–habitat relations and threatened status for seahorse species.

Results

We demonstrated that using “proximity to habitats” and integrating all species datasets (RG, CS and MC) derived models with the highest accuracies among all dataset variations. Based on this finding, we derived reliable models for 33 species. Our models suggested that only 0.4% of potential seahorse range was suitable to more than three species together; seahorse biogeographic epicentres were mainly in the Philippines; and proximity to sponges was an important habitat variable. We found that 12 “Data Deficient” species might be threatened based on our predictions according to IUCN criteria.

Main conclusions

We highlight that using proper habitat variables (e.g., proximity to habitats) is critical to determine distributions and key habitats for low‐mobility animals; collating and integrating quality‐unknown occurrences (e.g., CS and MC) with quality research data are meaningful for building SDMs for rare species. We encourage the application of SDMs to estimate area of occupancy for rare organisms to facilitate their conservation status assessment.