Recent population declines in Afro‐Palaearctic migratory birds: the influence of breeding and non‐breeding seasons

Aim

Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non‐breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology.

Location

Great Britain (England & Scotland).

Methods

Within‐ and between‐species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies.

Results

Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long‐distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short‐distance migrant species. Of the six long‐distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining.

Main conclusions

Population declines in long‐distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short‐distance migrants suggest an influence of non‐breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long‐distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non‐breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts.

     

Individual migratory patterns of two threatened seabirds revealed using stable isotope and geolocation analyses

Aim

Intraspecific variability in the migratory movements of seabirds is being revealed far more complex than hitherto recognized, and our lack of understanding undermines their effective protection. Our aim is to test whether the isotopic values of a single feather of two threatened seabirds, the Mediterranean (Puffinus yelkouan) and the Balearic (Puffinus mauretanicus) shearwaters allow the geographic assignment of birds to their non‐breeding areas.

Location

These two species are known to use three main non‐breeding areas: the NE Atlantic Ocean, the W Mediterranean and the Aegean‐Black seas.

Methods

We clustered in three groups the δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values of the first primary feather (P1), inferred to be grown during the non‐breeding period, of 34 Mediterranean and 56 Balearic shearwaters accidentally caught by longliners. To link the isotopic values of P1 to its corresponding non‐breeding area, we performed a discriminant function analysis (DFA) based on the three clusters and applied this function to feathers of known origin: P1 from seven Mediterranean shearwaters from Hyères Archipelago (France) tracked with geolocators and body feathers from six chicks from Balearic shearwaters. To link the moulting patterns to the areas where the feathers were grown, we applied the DFA to a sequence of primary feathers of eight Balearic and five Mediterranean shearwaters (caught by longliners).

Results

Isotopic and tracking data indicate that none of the Mediterranean shearwaters migrated to the Atlantic. The cluster and discriminant function analyses revealed that 8% of Balearic and 54% of Mediterranean shearwater moulted P1 in the Mediterranean Sea. Migratory movements were reflected in the changing isotopic values of the primary sequences.

Main conclusions

Stable isotope analyses (SIA) are a powerful approach to reveal the intraspecific variability in the migratory patterns of seabirds that use distinct isotopic areas over their annual cycle. The assignment of birds to their non‐breeding areas by means of SIA is a simple and effective tool that can help to evaluate the impact of human activities in remote areas not only at population but also at individual level, which is an essential knowledge for the management and conservation of threatened species.

     

The phylogenetic and functional diversity of regional breeding bird assemblages is reduced and constricted through urbanization

Aim

Urbanization broadly affects the phylogenetic and functional diversity of natural communities through a variety of processes including habitat loss and the introduction of non‐native species. Due to the challenge of acquiring direct measurements, these effects have been studied primarily using “space‐for‐time” substitution where spatial urbanization gradients are used to infer the consequences of urbanization occurring across time. The ability of alternative sampling designs to replicate the findings derived using space‐for‐time substitution has not been tested.

Location

Global.

Methods

We contrasted the phylogenetic and functional diversity of breeding bird assemblages in 58 cities worldwide with the corresponding regional breeding bird assemblages estimated using geographic range maps.

Results

Compared to regional assemblages, urban assemblages contained lower phylogenetic diversity, lower phylogenetic beta diversity, a reduction in the least evolutionary distinct species and the loss of the most evolutionarily distinct species. We found no evidence that these effects were related to the presence of non‐native species. Urban assemblages contained fewer aquatic species and fewer aquatic foraging species. The distribution of body size and range size narrowed for urban assemblages with the loss of species at both tails of the distribution, especially large bodied and broadly distributed species. Urban assemblages contained a greater proportion of species classified as passerines, doves or pigeons; species identified as granivores; species that forage within vegetation or in the air; and species with more generalized associations with foraging strata.

Main conclusions

Urbanization is associated with the overall reduction and constriction of phylogenetic and functional diversity, results that largely replicate those generated using space‐for‐time substitution, increasing our confidence in the quality of the combined inferences. When direct measurements are unavailable, our findings emphasize the value of developing independent sampling methods that broaden and reinforce our understanding of the ecological implications of urbanization.

     

Identifying the factors that determine the severity and type of alien bird impacts

Aim

To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.

Location

Global.

Methods

Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.

Results

The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.

Main conclusions

Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.

     

Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.

     

Fishing pressure and species traits affect stream fish invasions both directly and indirectly

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.

     

Old‐growth forests buffer climate‐sensitive bird populations from warming

Aim

Habitat loss and climate change constitute two of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and theory predicts that these factors may act synergistically to affect population trajectories. Recent evidence indicates that structurally complex old‐growth forest can be cooler than other forest types during spring and summer months, thereby offering potential to buffer populations from negative effects of warming. Old growth may also have higher food and nest‐site availability for certain species, which could have disproportionate fitness benefits as species approach their thermal limits.

Location

Pacific Northwestern United States.

Methods

We predicted that negative effects of climate change on 30‐year population trends of old‐growth‐associated birds should be dampened in landscapes with high proportions of old‐growth forest. We modelled population trends from Breeding Bird Survey data for 13 species as a function of temperature change and proportion old‐growth forest.

Results

We found a significant negative effect of summer warming on only two species. However, in both of these species, this relationship between warming and population decline was not only reduced but reversed, in old‐growth‐dominated landscapes. Across all 13 species, evidence for a buffering effect of old‐growth forest increased with the degree to which species were negatively influenced by summer warming.

Main conclusions

These findings suggest that old‐growth forests may buffer the negative effects of climate change for those species that are most sensitive to temperature increases. Our study highlights a mechanism whereby management strategies to curb degradation and loss of old‐growth forests—in addition to protecting habitat—could enhance biodiversity persistence in the face of climate warming.

     

Phylogenetic dimension of tree communities reveals high conservation value of disturbed tropical rain forests

Aim

The conversion of old‐growth tropical forests into human‐modified landscapes threatens biodiversity worldwide, but its impact on the phylogenetic dimension of remaining communities is still poorly known. Negative and neutral responses of tree phylogenetic diversity to land use change have been reported at local and landscape scales. Here, we hypothesized that such variable responses to disturbance depend on the regional context, being stronger in more degraded rain forest regions with a longer history of land use.

Location

Six regions in Mexico and Brazil.

Methods

We used a large vegetation database (6,923 trees from 686 species) recorded in 98 50‐ha landscapes distributed across two Brazilian and four Mexican regions, which exhibit different degrees of disturbance. In each region, we assessed whether phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities were related to landscape‐scale forest loss, the percentage of shade‐intolerant species (a proxy of local disturbance) and/or the relatedness of decreasing (losers) and increasing (winners) taxa.

Results

Contrary to our expectations, the percentage of forest cover and shade‐intolerant species were weakly related to phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities in all but one region. Loser species were generally as dispersed across the phylogeny as winner species, allowing more degraded, deforested and species‐poorer forests to sustain relatively high levels of evolutionary (phylogenetic) diversity.

Main conclusion

Our findings support previous evidence indicating that traits related to high susceptibility to forest disturbances are convergent or have low phylogenetic signal. More importantly, they reveal that the evolutionary value of disturbed forests is (at least in a phylogenetic sense) much greater than previously thought.

     

Species richness and phylogenetic diversity of native and non‐native species respond differently to area and environmental factors

Aim

To test whether native and non‐native species have similar diversity–area relationships (species–area relationships [SARs] and phylogenetic diversity–area relationships [PDARs]) and whether they respond similarly to environmental variables.

Location

United States.

Methods

Using lists of native and non‐native species as well as environmental variables for >250 US national parks, we compared SARs and PDARs of native and non‐native species to test whether they respond similarly to environmental conditions. We then used multiple regressions involving climate, land cover and anthropogenic variables to further explore underlying predictors of diversity for plants and birds in US national parks.

Results

Native and non‐native species had different slopes for SARs and PDARs, with significantly higher slopes for native species. Corroborating this pattern, multiple regressions showed that native and non‐native diversity of plants and birds responded differently to a greater number of environmental variables than expected by chance. For native species richness, park area and longitude were the most important variables while the number of park visitors, temperature and the percentage of natural area were among the most important ones for non‐native species richness. Interestingly, the most important predictor of native and non‐native plant phylogenetic diversity, temperature, had positive effects on non‐native plants but negative effects on natives.

Main conclusions

SARs, PDARs and multiple regressions all suggest that native and non‐native plants and birds responded differently to environmental factors that influence their diversity. The agreement between diversity–area relationships and multiple regressions with environmental variables suggests that SARs and PDARs can be both used as quick proxies of overall responses of species to environmental conditions. However, more importantly, our results suggest that global change will have different effects on native and non‐native species, making it inappropriate to apply the large body of knowledge on native species to understand patterns of community assembly of non‐native species.

     

Higher spring temperatures increase food scarcity and limit the current and future distributions of crossbills

Aim

Understanding how climate affects species distributions remains a major challenge, with the relative importance of direct physiological effects versus biotic interactions still poorly understood. We focus on three species of resource specialists (crossbill Loxia finches) to assess the role of climate in determining the seasonal availability of their food, the importance of climate and the occurrence of their food plants for explaining their current distributions, and to predict changes in their distributions under future climate change scenarios.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used datasets on the timing of seed fall in European Scots pine Pinus sylvestris forests (where different crossbill species occur) to estimate seed fall phenology and climate data to determine its influence on spatial and temporal variation in the timing of seed fall to provide a link between climate and seed scarcity for crossbills. We used large‐scale datasets on crossbill distribution, cover of the conifers relied on by the three crossbill species and climate variables associated with timing of seed fall, to assess their relative importance for predicting crossbill distributions. We used species distribution modelling to predict changes in their distributions under climate change projections for 2070.

Results

We found that seed fall occurred 1.5–2 months earlier in southern Europe than in Sweden and Scotland and was associated with variation in spring maximum temperatures and precipitation. These climate variables and area covered with conifers relied on by the crossbills explained much of their observed distributions. Projections under global change scenarios revealed reductions in potential crossbill distributions, especially for parrot crossbills.

Main conclusions

Ranges of resource specialists are directly influenced by the presence of their food plants, with climate conditions further affecting resource availability and the window of food scarcity indirectly. Future distributions will be determined by tree responses to changing climatic conditions and the impact of climate on seed fall phenology.

     

Land use legacy effects on woody vegetation in agricultural landscapes of south‐western Ethiopia

Aim

Past land use legacy effects—extinction debts and immigration credits—might be particularly pronounced in regions characterized by complex and dynamic landscape change. The aim of this study was to evaluate how current woody plant species distribution, composition and richness related to historical and present land uses.

Location

A smallholder farming landscape in south‐western Ethiopia.

Methods

We surveyed woody plants in 72 randomly selected 1‐ha sites in farmland and grouped them into forest specialist, generalist and pioneer species. First, we investigated woody plant composition and distribution using non‐metric multidimensional scaling. Second, we modelled species richness in response to historical and current distance from the forest edge. Third, we examined diameter class distributions of trees in recently converted vs. permanent farmland.

Results

Historical distance was a primary driver of woody plant composition and distribution. Generalist and pioneer species richness increased with historical distance. Forest specialists, however, did not respond to historical distance. Only few old individuals of forest specialist species remained in both recently converted and permanent farmlands.

Main conclusions

Our findings suggest that any possible extinction debt for forest specialist species in farmland at the landscape scale was rapidly paid off, possibly because farmers cleared large remnant trees. In contrast, we found substantial evidence of immigration credits in farmland for generalist and pioneer species. This suggests that long‐established farmland may have unrecognized conservation values, although apparently not for forest specialist species. We suggest that conservation policies in south‐western Ethiopia should recognize not only forests, but also the complementary value of the agricultural mosaic—similar to the case of European cultural landscapes. A possible future priority could be to better reintegrate forest species in the farmland mosaic.

     

Mountaintop removal mining alters stream salamander population dynamics

Aim

Population dynamics are often tightly linked to the condition of the landscape. Focusing on a landscape impacted by mountaintop removal coal mining (MTR), we ask the following questions: (1) How does MTR influence vital rates including occupancy, colonization and persistence probabilities, and conditional abundance of stream salamander species and life stages? (2) Do species and life stages respond similar to MTR mining or is there significant variation among species and life stages?

Location

Freshwater and terrestrial habitats in Central Appalachia (South‐eastern Kentucky, USA).

Methods

We conducted salamander counts for three consecutive years in 23 headwater stream reaches in forested or previously mined landscapes. We used a hierarchical, N‐mixture model with dynamic occupancy to calculate species‐ and life stage‐specific occupancy, colonization and persistence rates, and abundance given occupancy. We examined the coefficients of the hierarchical priors to determine population variation among species and life stages.

Results

Over 3 years, reference sites had greater salamander abundances and were occupied at a much higher rate than streams impacted by MTR. At sites impacted by MTR mining, most salamander species and life stages exhibited reduced initial occupancy, colonization rates, persistence rates and conditional abundance relative to reference stream reaches. Furthermore, the rates in MTR sites showed low variance, reinforcing that species and life stages were responding similar to MTR.

Main conclusions

Salamander populations in landscapes modified by MTR mining exhibited significantly reduced vital rates compared to reference sites. Yet, similarity in responses across species suggests that management or restoration may benefit the entire salamander assemblage. For example, reforestation could reduce landscape resistance, repair altered hydrologic regimes and allow for higher rates of colonization and persistence in streams impacted by MTR.

     

Effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation depends on guild

Aim

Protected areas are key conservation tools intended to increase biodiversity and reduce extinction risks of species and populations. However, the degree to which protected areas achieve their conservation goals is generally unknown for many protected areas worldwide. We assess the effect of protected areas on the abundance of 196 common, resident bird species. If protected areas were beneficial to avian biodiversity, we expect landscapes with a higher proportion of protected areas will have higher densities of species compared to landscapes with no protection.

Location

Greater Gauteng region, South Africa.

Methods

We analysed bird survey data collected over regular grid cells across the study area. We estimated bird abundance in relation to the proportion of a grid cell that was protected with the Royle–Nichols model and fitted the model once for each of the species. We examined variation in estimated abundance as a function of avian guild (defined by the type of food a species preferentially ate and its foraging mode) with a regression tree analysis.

Results

Abundance was significantly positively related to the proportion of protected areas in grid cells for 26% of the species, significantly negatively related in 15%, and not significantly related in 59% species. We found three distinct guild groups which differed in their average abundance, after accounting for associated variance. Group 1 consisted of guilds frugivores, ground‐feeders, hawkers, predators, and vegivores and average abundance was strongly positively related to the proportion of protected areas. Group 2 included granivores, and average abundance was strongly negatively related to proportion of protected areas. Group 3 included gleaners only, and average abundance was not related to proportion of protected areas.

Main conclusion

We conclude that the network of protected areas within the greater Gauteng region sustained relatively higher abundances of common birds and thus perform an important conservation role.

     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Gone with the forest: Assessing global woodpecker conservation from land use patterns

Aim

As a result of their ecological traits, woodpeckers (Picidae, Aves) are highly sensitive to forest cover change. We explored the current land cover in areas of high species richness of woodpeckers to determinate regions where urgent conservation actions are needed. In addition, we identified woodpecker species that are sensitive to forest loss and that have high levels of human habitat modification and low levels of protection (through protected areas) in their distribution ranges.

Location

Global.

Methods

We joined available range maps for all extant 254 woodpecker species with information of their conservation status and tolerances to human habitat modifications and generated a richness map of woodpecker species worldwide. Then, we associated this information (the richness pattern and individual species’ maps) with land cover and protected areas (PAs) maps.

Result

We found that the foremost woodpecker species richness hotspot is in Southeast Asia and is highly modified. At the second species richness hotspot in the eastern Andes, we observed a front of deforestation at its southern extreme and a greater deforested area in its northern extreme but most of its area remains with forest coverage. At the species level, 17 species that are sensitive to forest modification experience extensive deforestation and have low extents of PAs in their ranges.

Main conclusions

The most diverse woodpecker hotspots are mostly occupied by human‐modified landscapes, and a large portion of the species there avoids anthropogenic environments. The level of representation of woodpecker species in PAs is low as a global general pattern, although slightly better in Asia. Our global analysis of threats to woodpecker from land use patterns reiterates the urgent conservation needs for Southeast Asian forests. Finally, based on our results, we recommend a re‐evaluation for inclusion in the Red List of five woodpecker species.

     

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

Aim

This study formally evaluates the ability of three models to use geographical data on species distribution to predict the habitat use patterns of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Location

Species and habitats in the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest were investigated.

Methods

Based on empirical data on harvestmen and scorpions, we estimated the strength of species association with preferred habitat and classified them as habitat generalists or habitat specialists. We compared these empirical results with predictions made using data on species range size (model 1), species occurrence in biomes (model 2) and species occurrence in habitats within the biomes (model 3).

Results

We used 1,278 records of eight harvestman and two scorpion species that had specific determination and enough sampling numbers to allow safe identification of habitat specialization. We observed the following: (1) the extension of species occurrence did not influence the strength of species–habitat association (estimated by IndVal), which led us to reject model 1; (2) species habitat specialization derived from occurrences in biomes was 60% coincident with the classification derived from empirical data. This value is not different enough from the value expected by chance for these data, which also led us to reject model 2; and (3) species classification derived from secondary data about the habitats used had a significant coincidence of 80% with the empirical classification, which led us to accept model 3.

Main conclusions

For correct classification of species habitat specialization using secondary distributional data, we recommend that future studies consider using the most accurate information available on the habitats used by species. Especially for megadiverse and understudied groups, information about habitats used is not easy to obtain, so it is important for researchers and institutions to register and disseminate this information, which could support many other studies.

     

Species traits suggest European mammals facing the greatest climate change are also least able to colonize new locations

Aim

The risk climate change poses to biodiversity is often estimated by forecasting the areas that will be climatically suitable for species in the future and measuring the distance of the “range shifts” species would have to make to reach these areas. Species’ traits could indicate their capacity to undergo range shifts. However, it is not clear how range‐shift capacity influences risk. We used traits from a recent evidence review to measure the relative potential of species to track changing climatic conditions.

Location

Europe.

Time period

Baseline period (1961–1990) and forecast period (2035–2064).

Major taxa studied

62 mammal species.

Methods

We modelled species distributions using two general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to calculate three metrics of “exposure” to climate change: range area gained, range area lost and distance moved by the range margin. We identified traits that could inform species’ range‐shift capacity (i.e., potential to establish new populations and proliferate, and thus undertake range shifts), from a recent evidence‐based framework. The traits represent ecological generalization and reproductive strategy. We ranked species according to each metric of exposure and range‐shift capacity, calculating sensitivity to ranking methods, and synthesized both exposure and range‐shift capacity into “risk syndromes.”

Results

Many species studied whose survival depends on colonizing new areas were relatively unlikely to undergo range shifts. Under the worst‐case scenario, 62% of species studied were relatively highly exposed. 47% were highly exposed and had relatively low range‐shift capacity. Only 14% of species faced both low exposure and high range‐shift capacity. Both range‐shift and exposure metrics had a greater effect on risk assessments than climate models.

Main conclusions

The degree to which species’ potential ranges will be altered by climate change often does not correspond to species’ range‐shift capacities. Both exposure and range‐shift capacity should be considered when evaluating biodiversity risk from climate change.

     

Ecological traits modulate bird species responses to forest fragmentation in an Amazonian anthropogenic archipelago

Aim

We assessed patterns of avian species loss and the role of morpho‐ecological traits in explaining species vulnerability to forest fragmentation in an anthropogenic island system. We also contrasted observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy, which are often used to infer species vulnerability.

Location

Tucuruí Hydroelectric Reservoir, eastern Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

We surveyed forest birds within 36 islands (3.4–2,551.5 ha) after 22 years of post‐isolation history. We applied species–area relationships to assess differential patterns of species loss among three data sets: all species, forest specialists and habitat generalists. After controlling for phylogenetic non‐independence, we used observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy separately to build competing models as a function of species traits. The magnitude of the difference between these estimates of island occupancy was contrasted against species detectability.

Results

The rate of species loss as a function of island area reduction was higher for forest specialists than for habitat generalists. Accounting for the area effect, forest fragmentation did not affect the overall number of species regardless of the data set. Only the interactive model including natural abundance, habitat breadth and geographic range size was strongly supported for both estimates of island occupancy. For 30 species with detection probabilities below 30%, detectability‐corrected estimates were at least tenfold higher than those observed. Conversely, differences between estimates were negligible or non‐existent for all 31 species with detection probabilities exceeding 45.5%.

Main conclusions

Predicted decay of avian species richness induced by forest loss is affected by the degree of habitat specialisation of the species under consideration, and may be unrelated to forest fragmentation per se. Natural abundance was the main predictor of species island occupancy, although habitat breadth and geographic range size also played a role. We caution against using occupancy models for low‐detectability species, because overestimates of island occupancy reduce the power of species‐level predictions of vulnerability.

     

Predicted effects of climate change on potential sources of non‐indigenous marine species

Aim

We compare the present‐day global ocean climate with future climatologies based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and examine whether changes in global ocean climate will affect the environmental similarity of New Zealand's (NZ) coastal environments to those of the rest of the world. Our underlying rationale is that environmental changes to source and recipient regions may result in changes to the risk of non‐indigenous species survival and establishment.

Location

Coastlines of global continents and islands.

Methods

We determined the environmental similarity (Euclidean distance) between global coastlines and north‐east NZ for 2005 and 2050 using data on coastal seawater surface temperature and salinity. Anticipated climate models from the SRES A1B scenario family were used to derive coastal climatologies for 2050.

Results

During the next decades, most global regions will experience an increase in coastal seawater surface temperatures and a decline or increase in salinity. This will result in changes in the similarity of other coastal environments to north‐east NZ's coastal areas. Global regions that presently have high environmental similarity to north‐east NZ will variously retain this level of similarity, become more similar or decrease in environmental similarity. Some regions that presently have a low level of similarity will become more similar to NZ. Our models predict a widespread decrease in the seasonal variation in environmental similarity to NZ.

Main conclusions

Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate have the potential to change the risk of survival and establishment of non‐indigenous marine species arriving to NZ from some global regions. Predicted changes to global human transport networks over the coming decades highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into conservation planning and modelling.

     

Independent introductions and sequential founder events shape genetic differentiation and diversity of the invasive green anole (Anolis carolinensis) on Pacific Islands

Aim

Natural range expansions and human‐mediated colonizations usually involve a small number of individuals that establish new populations in novel habitats. In both cases, founders carry only a fraction of the total genetic variation of the source populations. Here, we used native and non‐native populations of the green anole, Anolis carolinensis, to compare the current distribution of genetic variation in populations shaped by natural range expansion and human‐mediated colonization.

Location

North America, Hawaiian Islands, Western Pacific Islands.

Methods

We analysed 401 mtDNA haplotypes to infer the colonization history of A. carolinensis on nine islands in the Pacific Ocean. We then genotyped 576 individuals at seven microsatellite loci to assess the levels of genetic diversity and population genetic differentiation for both the native and non‐native ranges.

Results

Our findings support two separate introductions to the Hawaiian Islands and several western Pacific islands, with subsequent colonizations within each region following a stepping‐stone model. Genetic diversity at neutral markers was significantly lower in the non‐native range because of founder effects, which also contributed to the increased population genetic differentiation among the non‐native regions. In contrast, a steady reduction in genetic diversity with increasing distance from the ancestral population was observed in the native range following range expansion.

Main conclusions

Range expansions cause serial founder events that are the spatial analogue of genetic drift, producing a pattern of isolation‐by‐distance in the native range of the species. In human‐mediated colonizations, after an initial loss of genetic diversity, founder effects appear to persist, resulting in overall high genetic differentiation among non‐native regions but an absence of isolation‐by‐distance. Contrasting the processes influencing the amount and structuring of genetic variability during natural range expansion and human‐mediated biological invasions can shed new light on the fate of natural populations exposed to novel and changing environments.