Propagule pressure and land cover changes as main drivers of red and roe deer expansion in mainland Portugal

Aim

The management of the rapid expansion of wild ungulate populations is a challenging task and a societal priority. Using a progressive database of red (Cervus elaphus) and roe (Capreolus capreolus) deer colonization over the last three decades, we estimate the range expansion rates and the underlying mechanisms involved in the expansion patterns of red and roe deer populations at the south‐western edge of its European distribution.

Location

Mainland Portugal.

Methods

We compiled and grouped historical red and roe deer distribution data in three time periods (1981–1990, 1991–2000 and 2001–2010). We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how biotic and abiotic drivers determine the expansion patterns of red and roe deer.

Results

We reported a significant expansion of red and roe deer populations during the last three decades. The significant interaction between propagule pressure and land cover suggests that the effects of propagule pressure vary along environmental gradients. We found that the influence of livestock on red and roe deer expansion is idiosyncratic. Contrary to red deer, roe deer expansion was also influenced by climatic conditions. We did not detect any significant effect of human factors on the red and roe deer expansion.

Main conclusions

The synergistic effects between variables should be taken into account when studying the patterns of species expansion. Our study emphasize that policy makers should consider the spatial, temporal, ecological and societal nuances of species expansion in order to prioritize management measures and to allocate management budgets. Although concerted strategies to curtail species spread should mitigate red and roe deer economic and ecological impacts, these effects can be neutralized by a continuous rural exodus and the consequent forest and shrub encroachment.

     

Exploring invasibility with species distribution modeling: How does fire promote cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion within lower montane forests?

Aim

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is notorious for creating positive feedbacks that facilitate vegetation type conversion within sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the western United States. Similar dynamics may exist in adjacent lower montane forest. However, fire‐forest‐cheatgrass dynamics have not been examined. We used species distribution modeling to answer three questions about fire and invasibility in lower montane forests: (Q1) Does fire create more suitable habitat for cheatgrass? (Q2) If so, which site attributes are altered to increase site suitability? (Q3) Does fire increase connectivity among suitable habitat and enhance spread?

Location

Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming, USA.

Methods

We measured cheatgrass presence–absence in 93 plots within Interior Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forests. Random Forests predicted cheatgrass distribution with and without fire using nine site attributes: elevation, slope, aspect, solar radiation, annual precipitation, maximum temperature in July, minimum temperature in January, forest canopy cover and distance to nearest trail or road. Additionally, invasion pathways and spread were mapped using Circuitscape.

Results

Cheatgrass distribution was controlled by topographic and climate variables in the absence of fire. In particular, cheatgrass was most likely to occur at low elevation along dry, south‐ and east‐facing slopes. High‐severity fire increased potential cheatgrass distribution when forest canopy cover was reduced to below 30%. This process created new invasion pathways, which enhanced cheatgrass spread when modelled in Circuitscape.

Main conclusions

Our study showed that in the absence of fire, drier south‐ and east‐facing slopes at low elevation are most susceptible to cheatgrass invasion. However, high‐severity fire increased the total area susceptible to invasion—allowing cheatgrass to expand into previously unsuitable sites within lower montane forests in the western United States. These results are important for present day management and reflect that integrating responses to disturbance in species distribution models can be critical for making predictions about dynamically changing systems.

     

Limited dispersal prevents Quercus rubra invasion in a 14‐species common garden experiment

Aim

Information about the importance of propagule pressure and habitat invasibility in invasion success of dispersal‐limited species is scarce. We aimed to assess invasiveness of Quercus rubra within stands of 14 tree species, and the effects of distance from propagule source on invasion success, to highlight limiting factors for further application in nature conservation.

Location

Siemianice Experimental Forest—a common garden forest experiment with 14 tree species, western Poland.

Methods

We investigated aboveground biomass, leaf area index and density of Q. rubra natural regeneration within 53 experimental plots, as well as distance from the seed source. We also analysed light availability changes between 2005 and 2015 on plots of each tree species. We used multiple linear regression and variable importance to quantify the effect of each factor.

Results

All factors tested influenced ecological success of Q. rubra. Invasion success decreased with increasing distance from the seed source and decreasing light availability and was higher within stands of pioneer tree species. Leaf area index depended mostly on tree stand species, density depended on distance from the propagule source and biomass depended on both. Light availability explained 7.2%–30.2% of the variance; tree species—from 36.1% to 57.4%; and distance from the propagule source—from 12.4% to 56.7%.

Main conclusions

Tree stand species, light availability and distance from the propagule source influence ecological success of invasive Q. rubra, displaying their importance for spread of this species. These factors are controllable in forest/conservation management and may be used to prevent Q. rubra invasion. Planting late‐successional tree species that cast dense shade, maintaining canopy closure and removing fruiting trees from surrounding more invasible stands may prevent Q. rubra invasion.

     

Higher spring temperatures increase food scarcity and limit the current and future distributions of crossbills

Aim

Understanding how climate affects species distributions remains a major challenge, with the relative importance of direct physiological effects versus biotic interactions still poorly understood. We focus on three species of resource specialists (crossbill Loxia finches) to assess the role of climate in determining the seasonal availability of their food, the importance of climate and the occurrence of their food plants for explaining their current distributions, and to predict changes in their distributions under future climate change scenarios.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used datasets on the timing of seed fall in European Scots pine Pinus sylvestris forests (where different crossbill species occur) to estimate seed fall phenology and climate data to determine its influence on spatial and temporal variation in the timing of seed fall to provide a link between climate and seed scarcity for crossbills. We used large‐scale datasets on crossbill distribution, cover of the conifers relied on by the three crossbill species and climate variables associated with timing of seed fall, to assess their relative importance for predicting crossbill distributions. We used species distribution modelling to predict changes in their distributions under climate change projections for 2070.

Results

We found that seed fall occurred 1.5–2 months earlier in southern Europe than in Sweden and Scotland and was associated with variation in spring maximum temperatures and precipitation. These climate variables and area covered with conifers relied on by the crossbills explained much of their observed distributions. Projections under global change scenarios revealed reductions in potential crossbill distributions, especially for parrot crossbills.

Main conclusions

Ranges of resource specialists are directly influenced by the presence of their food plants, with climate conditions further affecting resource availability and the window of food scarcity indirectly. Future distributions will be determined by tree responses to changing climatic conditions and the impact of climate on seed fall phenology.

     

How to fit the distribution of apex scavengers into land‐abandonment scenarios? The Cinereous vulture in the Mediterranean biome

Aim

Farmland abandonment or “ecological rewilding” shapes species distribution and ecological process ultimately affecting the biodiversity and functionality of ecosystems. Land abandonment predictions based on alternative future socioeconomic scenarios allow foretell the future of biota in Europe. From here, we predict how these forecasts may affect large‐scale distribution of the Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), an apex scavenger closely linked to Mediterranean agro‐grazing systems.

Location

Iberian Peninsula.

Methods

Firstly, we modelled nest‐site and foraging habitat selection in relation to variables quantifying physiography, trophic resources and human disturbance. Secondly, we evaluate to what extent land abandonment may affect the life traits of the species and finally we determined how potential future distribution of the species would vary according to asymmetric socioeconomic land‐abandonment predictions for year 2040.

Results

Cinereous vultures selected breeding areas with steep slopes and low human presence whereas foraging areas are characterized by high abundance of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and wild ungulates. Liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could potentially transform positively 66% of the current nesting habitat, favouring the recovery of mature forest. Contrarily, land abandonment would negatively affect the 63% of the current foraging habitat reducing the availability of preferred food resources (wild European rabbit). On the other hand, the maintenance of the CAP would determine lower frequencies (24%–22%) of nesting and foraging habitat change.

Main conclusions

Land abandonment may result into opposite effects on the focal species because of the increase in nesting habitats and wild ungulates populations and, on the other hand, lower availability of open areas with poorer densities of European rabbits. Land‐abandonment models’ scenarios are still coarse‐grained; the apparition of new human uses in natural areas may take place at small‐sized and medium‐sized scales, ultimately adding complexity to the prediction on the future of biota and ecosystems.

     

Population structure of caribou in an ice‐bound archipelago

Aim

Archipelagos provide ideal natural systems for testing the effects of isolation and fragmentation of habitats on the genetic makeup of populations—an important consideration, given that many insular species are of conservation concern. Two theories predominate: Island Biogeography Theory (IBT) posits that proximity to the mainland drives the potential for migrants and gene flow. The Central Marginal Hypothesis (CMH) predicts that island populations at the periphery of a species range may experience low gene flow, small population size and high rates of genetic drift. We investigated population genetic structure, genetic diversity and key drivers of diversity for Arctic island‐dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Our aim was to inform intraspecific units for conservation and decipher how IBT and CMH could act in an archipelago where isolation is highly variable due to sea ice and open water.

Location

Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Canada (Latitude, 55–82°N; Longitude, 61–123°W).

Methods

We genotyped 447 caribou at 16 microsatellite loci; these caribou represented two subspecies (R. t. groenlandicus, R. t. pearyi) and three designatable units. We used hierarchical Bayesian clustering and ordination to determine genetic groups. We evaluated the influence of ecological and geographic variables on genetic diversity using linear mixed‐effects models and compared diversity among mainland and island herds.

Results

Bayesian clustering revealed nine genetic clusters with differentiation among and within caribou subspecies. Genetic differentiation was explained predominantly by isolation‐by‐distance across all caribou, even at the scale of subspecies. Island caribou were less genetically diverse than mainland herds; individual heterozygosity was negatively correlated with distance‐to‐mainland and the extent of autumn ice‐free coastline and positively correlated with unglaciated island size.

Main conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of hierarchical analysis when investigating genetic population structure. Genetic diversity and its key drivers lend support to both IBT and CMH and highlight the pending threat of climate change for Arctic island caribou.

     

Fishing pressure and species traits affect stream fish invasions both directly and indirectly

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.

     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Predicting effects of large‐scale reforestation on native and exotic birds

Aim

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non‐native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human‐dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes?

Location

We explore this question in a >20‐year‐old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large‐scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest.

Methods

We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area.

Results

We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested.

Main conclusions

Our results demonstrate that large‐scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.

     

Underestimated ranges and overlooked refuges from amphibian chytridiomycosis

Aim

Accurately documenting and predicting declines and shifts in species’ distributions is fundamental for implementing effective conservation strategies and directing future research; species distribution models (SDM) have become a powerful tool for such work. Nevertheless, much of the data used to create these models are opportunistic and often violate some of their basic assumptions. We use amphibian declines and extinctions linked to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) to examine how sampling biases in data collection can affect what we know of this disease and its effect on amphibians in the wild.

Location

Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed a distribution model for Bd incorporating known locality records for Bd and a subset of climatic variables that should correctly characterize its distribution. We tested this (original) model with additional surveys, recorded new Bd observations in novel environments and reran the distribution model. We then investigated the difference between the original and new models, and used frog abundance and infection status data from two of these new localities to look at the susceptibility of the torrent frog Litoria nannotis to chytridiomycosis.

Results

While largely correct, the original SDM underestimated the distribution of Bd; sampling in ‘unsuitable’ drier environments discovered abundant populations of susceptible frogs with pathogen prevalences of up to 100%. The validation surveys further uncovered a new population of the frog Litoria lorica coexisting with the pathogen; this species was previously believed to be an extinct rain forest endemic.

Main conclusion

Our results indicate that SDMs constructed using opportunistically collected data can be biased if species are not at equilibrium with their environment or because environmental gradients have not been adequately sampled. For disease ecology, the better estimations of pathogen distribution may lead to the discovery of new populations persisting at the edge of their range, which has important implications for the conservation of species threatened by chytridiomycosis.

     

Are all data types and connectivity models created equal? Validating common connectivity approaches with dispersal data

Aim

There is enormous interest in applying connectivity modelling to resistance surfaces for identifying corridors for conservation action. However, the multiple analytical approaches used to estimate resistance surfaces and predict connectivity across resistance surfaces have not been rigorously compared, and it is unclear what methods provide the best inferences about population connectivity. Using a large empirical data set on puma (Puma concolor), we are the first to compare several of the most common approaches for estimating resistance and modelling connectivity and validate them with dispersal data.

Location

Southern California, USA.

Methods

We estimate resistance using presence‐only data, GPS telemetry data from puma home ranges and genetic data using a variety of analytical methods. We model connectivity with cost distance and circuit theory algorithms. We then measure the ability of each data type and connectivity algorithm to capture GPS telemetry points of dispersing pumas.

Results

We found that resource selection functions based on GPS telemetry points and paths outperformed species distribution models when applied using cost distance connectivity algorithms. Point and path selection functions were not statistically different in their performance, but point selection functions were more sensitive to the transformation used to convert relative probability of use to resistance. Point and path selection functions and landscape genetics outperformed other methods when applied with cost distance; no methods outperformed one another with circuit theory.

Main conclusions

We conclude that path or point selection functions, or landscape genetic models, should be used to estimate landscape resistance for wildlife. In cases where resource limitations prohibit the collection of GPS collar or genetic data, our results suggest that species distribution models, while weaker, may still be sufficient for resistance estimation. We recommend the use of cost distance‐based approaches, such as least‐cost corridors and resistant kernels, for estimating connectivity and identifying functional corridors for terrestrial wildlife.

     

Indirect effects of sea ice loss on summer‐fall habitat and behaviour for sympatric populations of an Arctic marine predator

Aim

Climate change is fundamentally altering habitats, with complex consequences for species across the globe. The Arctic has warmed 2–3 times faster than the global average, and unprecedented sea ice loss can have multiple outcomes for ice‐associated marine predators. Our goal was to assess impacts of sea ice loss on population‐specific habitat and behaviour of a migratory Arctic cetacean.

Location

Arctic Ocean.

Methods

Using satellite telemetry data collected during summer‐fall from sympatric beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) populations (“Chukchi” and “Beaufort” belugas), we applied generalized estimating equations to evaluate shifts in sea ice habitat associations and diving behaviour during two periods: 1993–2002 (“early”) and 2004–2012 (“late”). We used resource selection functions to assess changes in sea ice selection as well as predict trends in habitat selection and “optimal” habitat, based on satellite‐derived sea ice data from 1990 to 2014.

Results

Sea ice cover declined substantially between periods, and Chukchi belugas specifically used significantly lower sea ice concentrations during the late than early period. Use of bathymetric features did not change between periods for either population. Population‐specific sea ice selection, predicted habitat and the amount of optimal habitat also generally did not change during 1990–2014. Chukchi belugas tracked during 2007–2012 made significantly more long‐duration and deeper dives than those tracked during 1998–2002.

Main conclusions

Taken together, our results suggest bathymetric parameters are consistent predictors of summer‐fall beluga habitat rather than selection for specific sea ice conditions during recent sea ice loss. Beluga whales were able to mediate habitat change despite their sea ice associations. However, trends towards prolonged and deeper diving possibly indicate shifting foraging opportunities associated with ecological changes that occur in concert with sea ice loss. Our results highlight that responses by some Arctic marine wildlife can be indirect and variable among populations, which could be included in predictions for the future.

     

Divergent introduction histories among invasive populations of the delicate skink ( Lampropholis delicata): has the importance of genetic admixture in the success of biological invasions been overemphasized?

Aim

Invasive species are predicted to experience a reduction in genetic diversity during the introduction process because of founder effects, yet they are able to successfully establish in new regions and outcompete the native biota. Admixture has been proposed as a potential solution to this genetic paradox. We adopted a phylogeographic approach to investigate the invasion history of the delicate skink ( Lampropholis delicata) in the Pacific region and test the hypothesis that admixture is important for the success of biological invasions.

Location

Eastern Australia and the Pacific region (Lord Howe Island, New Zealand, Hawaii).

Methods

We obtained mitochondrial DNA sequence data ( ND2, ND4) from across the native Australian range (238 samples, 120 populations) and 371 samples from the introduced range of L. delicata. Genetic distances and Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) were used to examine the level of genetic variation across the native and introduced ranges.

Results

Fourteen haplotypes were evident in the introduced range (1 in Hawaii, 7 in New Zealand, 7 in Lord Howe Island), with a shared haplotype present in both New Zealand and Lord Howe Island. Five source regions were identified (Brisbane, Tenterfield, Border Ranges, Yamba‐Coffs Harbour, Sydney) from across four distinct native‐range genetic lineages. The Hawaiian population stems from a single introduction from Brisbane, whereas one or more introductions from the Tenterfield region led to the New Zealand populations. Multiple introductions from across all five source regions have resulted in extreme admixture (up to 8.3% sequence divergence) within Lord Howe Island.

Main Conclusions

L. delicata introductions are capable of being successful both in the presence and absence of admixture. Contrary to the predictions of the sequential two‐step model, the presence of admixture was not related to the time since initial introduction. We suggest that the importance of admixture in determining the success of biological invasions has been overemphasized.

     

Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.

     

Landscape correlates of forest plant invasions: A high‐resolution analysis across the eastern United States

Aim

Invasive species occurrence is often related to the anthropogenic context of a given area. Quantifying the effects of roads is of particular interest as roads are a major vector for invasion. Our objective was to further quantify the effects of roads on forest plant invasion through a macroscale, high‐resolution investigation to assist effective invasion control and mitigation.

Location

Eastern United States.

Methods

Using invasive plant data from 23,039 forest inventory plots in 13 ecological provinces, we employed logistic regression to relate the odds of invasion to distance from a road, with adjustments for broadscale differences attributable to ecological provinces, and local scale differences in productivity, forest fragmentation and land use.

Results

The overall proportion (P) of invaded plots was 0.58 (0.65 for plots within 50 m of a road), and the highest odds (P/1 ? P) of invasion were found in relatively more productive, fragmented forest in landscapes with more than 10% agriculture or developed land cover. Wald chi‐square statistics indicated the best predictor of the odds of invasion was ecological province, followed by land use, productivity, forest fragmentation and distance from a road. Depending on the province, the adjusted odds of invasion decreased by up to 23% (typically 4%–10%) per 100 m distance from a road. The adjusted probability of invasion approached zero in only three provinces, for the least productive, least fragmented forest that was at least 2,000 m from a road in landscapes with less than 10% agricultural or developed land cover.

Main conclusions

In the eastern United States, the existence of a nearby road is less important than the landscape context associated with the road. A purely road‐mediated effect has little practical meaning because anthropogenic activities and roads are pervasive and confounded.

     

Multispecies assessment of core areas and connectivity of desert carnivores in central Iran

Aim

Central Iran is a priority area for biodiversity conservation, which is threatened by encroachment on core habitats and fragmentation by roads. The goal of this study was to identify core areas and connectivity corridors for a set of desert carnivores by predicting habitat suitability and calculating resistant kernel, factorial least‐cost path modelling and graph network indices.

Location

Iran.

Methods

We used an ensemble model (EM) of habitat suitability methods to predict the potential habitats of leopard, cheetah, caracal, wild cat, sand cat and grey wolf and used resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path modelling to identify important core habitats and corridors between patches. We also used a graph network analysis to quantify the importance of each core patch to landscape connectivity.

Results

Potential habitats of the studied carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by prey density, annual precipitation, topographical roughness, shrubland density and anthropogenic factors. Most of the core patches were covered by protected areas and no‐hunting areas. This may be attributed to the relatively high resistance outside protected areas leading to isolated occupied patches. Patch importance to connectivity was significantly correlated with patch extent, density of dispersing individuals and probability of occurrence in the core patch.

Main conclusions

Our findings revealed that prey abundance in core habitat is critically important, and has higher influence than habitat area per se. In addition, our analysis provided the first map of landscape connectivity for multiple species in Iran and revealed that conserving these species requires integrated landscape‐level management to reduce mortality risk and protect core areas and linkages among them. These results will assist the development of multispecies conservation strategies to protect core areas for carnivores.

     

Consistent life history shifts along invasion routes? An examination of round goby populations invading on two continents

Aim

Many invasive populations exhibit dynamic life history shifts along their invasion route. We investigated whether these shifts represent consistent biological responses of a given species to range expansion, even in systems located in different geographic regions.

Location

North‐eastern France, Central Ontario (Canada).

Method

We investigated population density, life history traits and age‐specific reproductive investment in expanding populations of round goby at three invasion stages (expansion front, area colonized one year earlier and area colonized for ~five years) along the invasive routes in two river systems differing in climate and system productivity. Interindividual variability, shown to affect range expansion rates, was also investigated along the invasion routes. The study was based on female round gobies collected in three locations within each invasion stage twice monthly throughout the reproductive season (March/May to July).

Results

In both systems, reproductive investment was highest in the newly colonized area and decreased with time since colonization. A faster decrease in reproductive investment was found in the warmer, more productive system behind the invasion front, potentially associated with faster population growth and increased intraspecific competition. In both systems, individual variability in growth and reproductive traits increased from the newly colonized area to the areas of earlier colonization.

Main conclusions

The patterns observed in the two systems suggest a common invasion strategy independent of environmental conditions and highlight the dynamic nature of invasive populations’ life history behind the invasion front. Common energetic allocation strategies can be expected at the invasion front. Range expansion may be associated with population growth induced by rapid acclimation to biotic conditions associated with range shift.

     

Predicting global ascidian invasions

Aim

Many species of ascidians are invasive and can cause both ecological and economic losses. Here, we describe risk assessment for nineteen ascidian species and predict coastal regions that are more vulnerable to arrival and expansion.

Location

Global.

Methods

We used ensemble niche modelling with three algorithms (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and MaxEnt) to predict ecologically suitable areas and evaluated our predictions using independent (area under the curve—AUC) and dependent thresholds (true skill statistics—TSS). Environmental variables were maximum and the range of sea surface temperature, mean salinity and maximum chlorophyll. We used our niche modelling results and a modified invasibility index to compare invasion risk among 15 coastal regions.

Results

Currently, the most invaded regions are in temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Temperate Australasia, which are regions most prone for new invasions. In the tropics, the West and Central Indo‐Pacific are two regions of strong concern, the former with high risk of primary invasion by Botryllus schlosseri and Didemnum perlucidum. In the Southern Hemisphere, the Southwest and Southeast Atlantic are most at risk, both subject to invasion by Botrylloides violaceus, Didemnum vexillum, Molgula manhattensis and Styela clava among others. Regions most at risk of expansion of established invasive species are the Central Indo‐Pacific, Northwest Pacific, Mediterranean and West Indo‐Pacific.

Main conclusions

All regions studied have areas that are suitable and connected to receive new ascidian introductions or that may permit the spread of already established species. Risk comparison of primary introductions and expansion of established introduced ascidians among regions will allow managers to prioritize species of concern for each region both for monitoring future introductions or to enforce control actions towards established species to decrease the risk of regional expansion.

     

Species traits suggest European mammals facing the greatest climate change are also least able to colonize new locations

Aim

The risk climate change poses to biodiversity is often estimated by forecasting the areas that will be climatically suitable for species in the future and measuring the distance of the “range shifts” species would have to make to reach these areas. Species’ traits could indicate their capacity to undergo range shifts. However, it is not clear how range‐shift capacity influences risk. We used traits from a recent evidence review to measure the relative potential of species to track changing climatic conditions.

Location

Europe.

Time period

Baseline period (1961–1990) and forecast period (2035–2064).

Major taxa studied

62 mammal species.

Methods

We modelled species distributions using two general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to calculate three metrics of “exposure” to climate change: range area gained, range area lost and distance moved by the range margin. We identified traits that could inform species’ range‐shift capacity (i.e., potential to establish new populations and proliferate, and thus undertake range shifts), from a recent evidence‐based framework. The traits represent ecological generalization and reproductive strategy. We ranked species according to each metric of exposure and range‐shift capacity, calculating sensitivity to ranking methods, and synthesized both exposure and range‐shift capacity into “risk syndromes.”

Results

Many species studied whose survival depends on colonizing new areas were relatively unlikely to undergo range shifts. Under the worst‐case scenario, 62% of species studied were relatively highly exposed. 47% were highly exposed and had relatively low range‐shift capacity. Only 14% of species faced both low exposure and high range‐shift capacity. Both range‐shift and exposure metrics had a greater effect on risk assessments than climate models.

Main conclusions

The degree to which species’ potential ranges will be altered by climate change often does not correspond to species’ range‐shift capacities. Both exposure and range‐shift capacity should be considered when evaluating biodiversity risk from climate change.

     

Integrating multiple data sources for assessing blue whale abundance and distribution in Chilean Northern Patagonia

Aim

Species distribution models are useful tools for depicting important habitat, assessing abundance and orienting conservation efforts. For small populations in poorly studied ecosystems, available data are often scarce and patchy. To overcome this limitation, we aim to evaluate the use of different data types within a hierarchical Bayesian framework with the goal of modelling the abundance and distribution of a small and highly migratory population of blue whale (BW, Balaenoptera musculus) summering in Chilean Northern Patagonian (CNP).

Location

CNP, Eastern South Pacific (ESP).

Methods

We constructed a Bayesian hierarchical species distribution Model (HSDM), combining a binomial N‐mixture model used to model BW groups counts in line‐transect data (2009, 2012 and 2014) with a logistic regression for modelling presence‐availability data (2009–2016), allowing both models to share covariate parameters for borrowing strength in estimations.

Results

Distance to areas of high chlorophyll‐a concentration during spring before summering season (AHCC‐s) was the most important and consistent explanatory variable for assessing BW abundance and distribution in CNP. Incorporating accessorial presence‐only data reduced uncertainty in parameters estimation when comparing with a model using only line‐transect data, although other covariates of secondary importance failed to be retained in this model.

Main conclusions

Our results remark the capability of HSDM for integrating different data types providing a potential powerful tool when data are limited and heterogeneous. Results indicate that AHCC‐s, and possibly thermal fronts, could modulate BW abundance and distribution patterns in CNP. Preliminary model‐based delimitations of possible priority conservation areas for BW in CNP overlap with highly used vessel navigation routes and areas destined to aquaculture.