The phylogenetic and functional diversity of regional breeding bird assemblages is reduced and constricted through urbanization

Aim

Urbanization broadly affects the phylogenetic and functional diversity of natural communities through a variety of processes including habitat loss and the introduction of non‐native species. Due to the challenge of acquiring direct measurements, these effects have been studied primarily using “space‐for‐time” substitution where spatial urbanization gradients are used to infer the consequences of urbanization occurring across time. The ability of alternative sampling designs to replicate the findings derived using space‐for‐time substitution has not been tested.

Location

Global.

Methods

We contrasted the phylogenetic and functional diversity of breeding bird assemblages in 58 cities worldwide with the corresponding regional breeding bird assemblages estimated using geographic range maps.

Results

Compared to regional assemblages, urban assemblages contained lower phylogenetic diversity, lower phylogenetic beta diversity, a reduction in the least evolutionary distinct species and the loss of the most evolutionarily distinct species. We found no evidence that these effects were related to the presence of non‐native species. Urban assemblages contained fewer aquatic species and fewer aquatic foraging species. The distribution of body size and range size narrowed for urban assemblages with the loss of species at both tails of the distribution, especially large bodied and broadly distributed species. Urban assemblages contained a greater proportion of species classified as passerines, doves or pigeons; species identified as granivores; species that forage within vegetation or in the air; and species with more generalized associations with foraging strata.

Main conclusions

Urbanization is associated with the overall reduction and constriction of phylogenetic and functional diversity, results that largely replicate those generated using space‐for‐time substitution, increasing our confidence in the quality of the combined inferences. When direct measurements are unavailable, our findings emphasize the value of developing independent sampling methods that broaden and reinforce our understanding of the ecological implications of urbanization.

     

Multifaceted biodiversity modelling at macroecological scales using Gaussian processes

Aim

Modelling the response of β‐diversity (i.e., the turnover in species composition among sites) to environmental variation has wide‐ranging applications, including informing conservation planning, understanding community assembly and forecasting the impacts of climate change. However, modelling β‐diversity is challenging, especially for multiple diversity facets (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity), and current methods have important limitations. Here, we present a new approach for predicting the response of multifaceted β‐diversity to the environment, called Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling (MBM). We illustrate the approach using both a plant diversity dataset from the French Alps and a set of simulated data. We also provide an implementation via an R package.

Location

French Alps.

Methods

For both the French Alps and the simulated communities, we compute β‐diversity indices (e.g., Sørensen dissimilarity, mean functional/phylogenetic pairwise distance) among site pairs. We then apply Gaussian process regression, a flexible nonlinear modelling technique, to predict β‐diversity in response to environmental distance among site pairs. For comparison, we also perform similar analyses using Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM), a well‐established method for modelling β‐diversity in response to environmental distance.

Results

In the Alps, we observed a general increase in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) β‐diversity (i.e., site pairs were more different from each other) as the climatic distance between site pairs increased. GDM performed better for TD and FD when fitting to calibration data, whereas MBM performed better for both when predicting to a validation dataset. For phylogenetic β‐diversity, MBM outperformed GDM in predicting the observed decrease in phylogenetic β‐diversity with increasing climatic distance.

Main conclusions

Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling provides a flexible new approach that expands our capacity to model multiple facets of β‐diversity. Advantages of MBM over existing methods include simpler assumptions, more flexible modelling, potential to consider multiple facets of diversity across a range of diversity indices, and robust uncertainty estimation.

     

Ecological correlates of mammal β‐diversity in Amazonian land‐bridge islands: from small‐ to large‐bodied species

Aim

Mega hydroelectric dams have become one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss in the lowland tropics. In these reservoirs, vertebrate studies have focused on local (α) diversity measures, whereas between‐site (β) diversity remains poorly assessed despite its pivotal importance in understanding how species diversity is structured and maintained. Here, we unravel the patterns and ecological correlates of mammal β‐diversity, including both small (SM) and midsized to large mammal species (LM) across 23 islands and two continuous forest sites within a mega hydroelectric reservoir.

Location

Balbina Hydroelectric Dam, Central Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

Small mammals were sampled using live and pitfall traps (48,350 trap‐nights), and larger mammals using camera traps (8,160 trap‐nights). β‐diversity was examined for each group using multiplicative diversity decomposition of Hill numbers, which considers the importance of rare, common and dominant species, and tested to what extent those were related to a set of environmental characteristics measured at different spatial scales.

Results

β‐diversity for both mammal groups was higher when considering species presence–absence. When considering species abundance, β‐diversity was significantly higher for SM than for LM assemblages. Habitat variables, such as differences in tree species richness and percentage of old‐growth trees, were strong correlates of β‐diversity for both SMs and LMs. Conversely, β‐diversity was weakly related to patch and landscape characteristics, except for LMs, for which β‐diversity was correlated with differences in island sizes.

Main conclusions

The lower β‐diversity of LMs between smaller islands suggests subtractive homogenization of this group. Although island size plays a major role in structuring mammal α‐diversity in several land‐bridge islands, local vegetation characteristics were additional key factors determining β‐diversity for both mammal groups. Maintaining the integrity of vegetation characteristics and preventing the formation of a large set of small islands within reservoirs should be considered in long‐term management plans in both existing and planned hydropower development in lowland tropical forests.

     

Environmental gradients shift the direction of the relationship between native and alien plant species richness

Aim

To assess how environmental, biotic and anthropogenic factors shape native–alien plant species richness relationships across a heterogeneous landscape.

Location

Banks Peninsula, New Zealand.

Methods

We integrated a comprehensive floristic survey of over 1200 systematically located 6 × 6 m plots, with corresponding climate, environmental and anthropogenic data. General linear models examined variation in native and alien plant species richness across the entire landscape, between native‐ and alien‐dominated plots, and within separate elevational bands.

Results

Across all plots, there was a significant negative correlation between native and alien species richness, but this relationship differed within subsets of the data: the correlation was positive in alien‐dominated plots but negative in native‐dominated plots. Within separate elevational bands, native and alien species richness were positively correlated at lower elevations, but negatively correlated at higher elevations. Alien species richness tended to be high across the elevation gradient but peaked in warmer, mid‐ to low‐elevation sites, while native species richness increased linearly with elevation. The negative relationship between native and alien species richness in native‐dominated communities reflected a land‐use gradient with low native and high alien richness in more heavily modified native‐dominated vegetation. In contrast, native and alien richness were positively correlated in very heavily modified alien‐dominated plots, most likely due to covariation along a gradient of management intensity.

Main conclusions

Both positive and negative native–alien richness relationships can occur across the same landscape, depending on the plant community and the underlying human and environmental gradients examined. Human habitat modification, which is often confounded with environmental variation, can result in high alien and low native species richness in areas still dominated by native species. In the most heavily human modified areas, dominated by alien species, both native and alien species may be responding to similar underlying gradients.

     

Unravelling the evolutionary origins of biogeographic assemblages

Aim

Floristic and faunal diversity fall within species assemblages that can be grouped into distinct biomes or ecoregions. Understanding the origins of such biogeographic assemblages helps illuminate the processes shaping present‐day diversity patterns and identifies regions with unique or distinct histories. While the fossil record is often sparse, dated phylogenies can provide a window into the evolutionary past of these regions. Here, we present a novel phylogenetic approach to investigate the evolutionary origins of present‐day biogeographic assemblages and highlight their conservation value.

Location

Southern Africa.

Methods

We evaluate the evolutionary turnover separating species clusters in space at different time slices to determine the phylogenetic depth at which the signal for their present‐day structure emerges. We suggest present‐day assemblages with distinct evolutionary histories might represent important units for conservation. We apply our method to the vegetation of southern Africa using a dated phylogeny of the woody flora of the region and explore how the evolutionary history of vegetation types compares to common conservation currencies, including species richness, endemism and threat.

Results

We show the differentiation of most present‐day vegetation types can be traced back to evolutionary splits in the Miocene. The woody flora of the Fynbos is the most evolutionarily distinct, and thus has deeper evolutionary roots, whereas the Savanna and Miombo Woodland show close phylogenetic affinities and likely represent a more recent separation. However, evolutionarily distinct phyloregions do not necessarily capture the most unique phylogenetic diversity, nor are they the most species‐rich or threatened.

Main conclusions

Our approach complements analyses of the fossil record and serves as a link to the history of diversification, migration and extinction of lineages within biogeographic assemblages that is separate from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our analysis reveals how phyloregions capture conservation value not represented by traditional biodiversity metrics.

     

Enough space in a warmer world? Microhabitat diversity and small‐scale distribution of alpine plants on mountain summits

Aim

Global warming is predicted to shift distributions of mountain species upwards, driven by a release from climatic restrictions at their upper distribution limit and increased biotic pressure at their lower distribution limit. In alpine ecosystems, which are characterized by large microclimatic diversity and sparse vegetation cover, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic drivers for species distribution is poorly understood. To disentangle abiotic and biotic mechanisms affecting distributions of alpine species, we investigated how alpine plant species with differing elevational ranges and frequency trends over the past century differ in their microhabitat distribution, and how they respond to neighbouring vegetation.

Location

A total of 11 summits (2635—3410 m a.s.l.) in SE‐Switzerland.

Methods

We quantified the microscale abundance of 12 species in relation to biogeographic (frequency trend, i.e., change in occurrences over the past century, and elevational range on summits) and local microhabitat characteristics (temperature, substrate type). We assessed species size traits in relation to neighbouring vegetation characteristics to investigate possible neighbour interactions.

Results

Species with increasing frequency on summits over the past century were most abundant on scree and warmer slopes. Species with negative or stable frequency trends on summits were more abundant on organic soil and colder slopes. The preferred microhabitats of the latter were rarest overall, decreased with increasing elevation, and had the most competitive neighbours. Size of one high‐alpine specialist, Ranunculus glacialis was negatively related to cover of neighbouring vegetation, whereas other species showed no response to neighbours.

Main conclusions

Long‐term frequency trends of species correlate with their microhabitat association. Species with most negative frequency trends show preferences for the rarest microhabitat conditions, where they likely experience higher competitive pressure in a warming climate. This finding emphasizes the importance of characterizing microhabitat associations and microclimatic diversity to assess present and future distributions of alpine plant species.

     

Non‐interacting impacts of fertilization and habitat area on plant diversity via contrasting assembly mechanisms

Aim

The local‐ and regional‐based forms of anthropogenic change reducing grassland diversity are generally identified, but these scale‐dependent processes tend to co‐occur with unclear interactive effects. Here, we explicitly test how common local and regional perturbations simultaneously affect plant alpha and beta diversity in a multiyear community assembly experiment using fragments of grassland habitat of various sizes. We hypothesized that local disturbances and decreasing patch size would interact, suppressing local diversity while homogenizing composition among patches.

Location

North America.

Methods

We conducted a three‐year grassland assembly experiment, factorially manipulating local perturbation (nitrogen addition and mowing) and patch area for 36 patches over 13 ha. We quantified the individual and interactive effects of these local and regional factors on plant alpha and beta diversity within (quadrat scale) and among patches (patch scale). We also used a null model approach to disentangle between stochastic‐ and niche‐based assembly mechanisms.

Results

We detected a gradient of assembly outcomes driven by two non‐interacting factors—the effects of N fertilization on alpha (negative) and beta (positive) diversity regardless of spatial scale and the scale‐dependant effect of increasing patch size on alpha (positive) and beta (positive) diversity. These effects unfolded over time, with the constraints on richness and composition shifting from dispersal‐based during the first sampling year to perturbation‐and size‐based factors at year two and three. Fertilization effects were driven by a mixture of deterministic (i.e., selection at the species level) and stochastic (i.e., random extinctions) processes resulting in a decline in local richness but an increase in spatial heterogeneity in species composition. Area appeared to influence alpha diversity mainly via stochastic “sampling effect”—larger patches represented a larger sample of the regional pool. Niche‐based processes, however, led to convergence in beta diversity among smaller patches driving a positive overall effect of area on beta diversity.

Main conclusion

Our results illustrate how diversity regulation in contemporary grasslands can be simultaneously shaped by local and regional factors acting additively but via contrasting assembly mechanisms that operate at different spatial and temporal scales.

     

Species richness and phylogenetic diversity of native and non‐native species respond differently to area and environmental factors

Aim

To test whether native and non‐native species have similar diversity–area relationships (species–area relationships [SARs] and phylogenetic diversity–area relationships [PDARs]) and whether they respond similarly to environmental variables.

Location

United States.

Methods

Using lists of native and non‐native species as well as environmental variables for >250 US national parks, we compared SARs and PDARs of native and non‐native species to test whether they respond similarly to environmental conditions. We then used multiple regressions involving climate, land cover and anthropogenic variables to further explore underlying predictors of diversity for plants and birds in US national parks.

Results

Native and non‐native species had different slopes for SARs and PDARs, with significantly higher slopes for native species. Corroborating this pattern, multiple regressions showed that native and non‐native diversity of plants and birds responded differently to a greater number of environmental variables than expected by chance. For native species richness, park area and longitude were the most important variables while the number of park visitors, temperature and the percentage of natural area were among the most important ones for non‐native species richness. Interestingly, the most important predictor of native and non‐native plant phylogenetic diversity, temperature, had positive effects on non‐native plants but negative effects on natives.

Main conclusions

SARs, PDARs and multiple regressions all suggest that native and non‐native plants and birds responded differently to environmental factors that influence their diversity. The agreement between diversity–area relationships and multiple regressions with environmental variables suggests that SARs and PDARs can be both used as quick proxies of overall responses of species to environmental conditions. However, more importantly, our results suggest that global change will have different effects on native and non‐native species, making it inappropriate to apply the large body of knowledge on native species to understand patterns of community assembly of non‐native species.

     

Climate change‐driven extinctions of tree species affect forest functioning more than random extinctions

Aim

Climate change affects forest functioning not only through direct physiological effects such as modifying photosynthesis and growing season lengths, but also through indirect effects on community composition related to species extinctions and colonizations. Such indirect effects remain poorly explored in comparison with the direct ones. Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies commonly examine the effects of species loss by eliminating species randomly. However, species extinctions caused by climate change will depend on the species’ vulnerability to the new environmental conditions, thus occurring in a specific, non‐random order. Here, we evaluated whether successive tree species extinctions, according to their vulnerability to climate change, impact forest functions differently than random species losses.

Location

Eleven temperate forests across a gradient of climatic conditions in central Europe.

Methods

We simulated tree community dynamics with a forest succession model to study the impact of species loss on the communities’ aboveground biomass, productivity and temporal stability. Tree species were removed from the local pool (1) randomly, and according to (2) their inability to be recruited under a warmer climate or (3) their increased mortality under drier conditions.

Results

Results showed that non‐random species loss (i.e., based on their vulnerability to warmer or drier conditions) changed forest functioning at a different rate, and sometimes direction, than random species loss. Furthermore, directed extinctions, unlike random, triggered tipping points along the species loss process where forest functions were strongly impacted. These tipping points occurred after fewer extinctions in forests located in the coldest areas, where ecosystem functioning relies on fewer species.

Main conclusions

We showed that the extinction of species in a deterministic and mechanistically motivated order, in this case the species vulnerability to climate change, strengthens the selection effect of diversity on ecosystem functioning. BEF studies exploring the impact of species loss on ecosystem functioning using random extinctions thus possibly underestimate the potential effect of biodiversity loss when driven by a directional force, such as climate change.

     

Species traits suggest European mammals facing the greatest climate change are also least able to colonize new locations

Aim

The risk climate change poses to biodiversity is often estimated by forecasting the areas that will be climatically suitable for species in the future and measuring the distance of the “range shifts” species would have to make to reach these areas. Species’ traits could indicate their capacity to undergo range shifts. However, it is not clear how range‐shift capacity influences risk. We used traits from a recent evidence review to measure the relative potential of species to track changing climatic conditions.

Location

Europe.

Time period

Baseline period (1961–1990) and forecast period (2035–2064).

Major taxa studied

62 mammal species.

Methods

We modelled species distributions using two general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to calculate three metrics of “exposure” to climate change: range area gained, range area lost and distance moved by the range margin. We identified traits that could inform species’ range‐shift capacity (i.e., potential to establish new populations and proliferate, and thus undertake range shifts), from a recent evidence‐based framework. The traits represent ecological generalization and reproductive strategy. We ranked species according to each metric of exposure and range‐shift capacity, calculating sensitivity to ranking methods, and synthesized both exposure and range‐shift capacity into “risk syndromes.”

Results

Many species studied whose survival depends on colonizing new areas were relatively unlikely to undergo range shifts. Under the worst‐case scenario, 62% of species studied were relatively highly exposed. 47% were highly exposed and had relatively low range‐shift capacity. Only 14% of species faced both low exposure and high range‐shift capacity. Both range‐shift and exposure metrics had a greater effect on risk assessments than climate models.

Main conclusions

The degree to which species’ potential ranges will be altered by climate change often does not correspond to species’ range‐shift capacities. Both exposure and range‐shift capacity should be considered when evaluating biodiversity risk from climate change.

     

Systematic,large‐scale national biodiversity surveys: NeoMaps as a model for tropical regions

Aim

To test a method for rapidly and reliably collecting species distribution and abundance data over large tropical areas [known as Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps)], explicitly seeking to improve cost‐ and time‐efficiencies over existing methods (i.e. museum collections, literature), while strengthening local capacity for data collection.

Location

Venezuela.

Methods

We placed a grid over Venezuela (0.5 × 0.5 degree cells) and applied a stratified sampling design to select a minimum set of 25 cells spanning environmental and biogeographical variation. We implemented standardized field sampling protocols for birds, butterflies and dung beetles, along transects on environmental gradients (‘gradsects’). We compared species richness estimates from our field surveys at national, bioregional and cell scales to those calculated from data compiled from museum collections and the literature. We estimated the variance in richness, composition, relative abundance and diversity between gradsects that could be explained by environmental and biogeographical variables. We also estimated total survey effort and cost.

Results

In one field season, we covered 8% of the country and recorded 66% of all known Venezuelan dung beetles, 52% of Pierid butterflies and 37% of birds. Environmental variables explained 27–60% of variation in richness for all groups and 13–43% of variation in abundance and diversity in dung beetles and birds. Bioregional and environmental variables explained 43–58% of the variation in the dissimilarity matrix between transects for all groups.

Main conclusions

NeoMaps provides reliable estimates of richness, composition and relative abundance, required for rigorous monitoring and spatial prediction. NeoMaps requires a substantial investment, but is highly efficient, achieving survey goals for each group with 1‐month fieldwork and about US$ 1–8 per km². Future work should focus on other advantages of this type of survey, including the ability to monitor the changes in relative abundance and turnover in species composition, and thus overall diversity patterns.

     

Identifying the factors that determine the severity and type of alien bird impacts

Aim

To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.

Location

Global.

Methods

Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.

Results

The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.

Main conclusions

Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.

     

Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.

     

Fishing pressure and species traits affect stream fish invasions both directly and indirectly

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.

     

Climate versus weather extremes: Temporal predictor resolution matters for future rather than current regional species distribution models

Aim

Climate is considered a major driver of species distributions. Long‐term climatic means are commonly used as predictors in correlative species distribution models (SDMs). However, this coarse temporal resolution does not reflect local conditions that populations experience, such as short‐term weather extremes, which may have a strong impact on population dynamics and local distributions. We here compare the performance of climate‐ and weather‐based predictors in regional SDMs and their influence on future predictions, which are increasingly used in conservation planning.

Location

South‐western Germany.

Methods

We built different SDMs for 20 Orthoptera species based on three predictor sets at a regional scale for current and future climate scenarios. We calculated standard bioclimatic variables and yearly and seasonal sets of climate change indicating variables of weather extremes. As the impact of extreme events may be stronger for habitat specialists than for generalists, we distinguished species’ degrees of specialization. We computed linear mixed‐effects models to identify significant effects of algorithm, predictor set and specialization on model performance and calculated correlations and geographical niche overlap between spatial predictions.

Results

Current predictions were rather similar among all predictor sets, but highly variable for future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic and seasonal weather predictors performed slightly better than yearly weather predictors, though performance differences were minor. We found no evidence that specialists are more sensitive to weather extremes than generalists.

Main conclusions

For future projections of species distributions, SDM predictor selection should not solely be based on current performances and predictions. As long‐term climate and short‐term weather predictors represent different environmental drivers of a species’ distribution, we argue to interpret diverging future projections as complements. Even if similar current performances and predictions might imply their equivalency, favouring one predictor set neglects important aspects of future distributions and might mislead conservation decisions based on them.

     

An integrated,spatio‐temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions

Aim

We develop a novel modelling framework for analysing the spatio‐temporal spread of biological invasions. The framework integrates different invasion drivers and disentangles their roles in determining observed invasion patterns by fitting models to historical distribution data. As a case study application, we analyse the spread of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia).

Location

Central Europe.

Methods

A lattice system represents actual landscapes with environmental heterogeneity. Modelling covers the spatio‐temporal invasion sequence in this grid and integrates the effects of environmental conditions on local invasion suitability, the role of invaded cells and spatially implicit “background” introductions as propagule sources, within‐cell invasion level bulk‐up and multiple dispersal means. A modular framework design facilitates flexible numerical representation of the modelled invasion processes and customization of the model complexity. We used the framework to build and contrast increasingly complex models, and fitted them using a Bayesian inference approach with parameters estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).

Results

All modelled invasion drivers codetermined the A. artemisiifolia invasion pattern. Inferences about individual drivers depended on which processes were modelled concurrently, and hence changed both quantitatively and qualitatively between models. Among others, the roles of environmental variables were assessed substantially differently subject to whether models included explicit source‐recipient cell relationships, spatio‐temporal variability in source cell strength and human‐mediated dispersal means. The largest fit improvements were found by integrating filtering effects of the environment and spatio‐temporal availability of propagule sources.

Main conclusions

Our modelling framework provides a straightforward means to build integrated invasion models and address hypotheses about the roles and mutual relationships of different putative invasion drivers. Its statistical nature and generic design make it suitable for studying many observed invasions. For efficient invasion modelling, it is important to represent changes in spatio‐temporal propagule supply by explicitly tracking the species’ colonization sequence and establishment of new populations.

     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Standardized genetic diversity‐life history correlates for improved genetic resource management of Neotropical trees

Aim

Life history traits and range size are key correlates of genetic diversity in trees. We used a standardized sampling protocol to explore how life history traits and range size relate to the magnitude, variance and structuring (both between‐ and within‐population) of genetic diversity in Neotropical tree species.

Location

The Neotropics

Methods

We present a meta‐analysis of new population genetic data generated for 23 Neotropical tree species (=2,966 trees, 86 populations) across a shared and broad geographic area. We compared established population genetic metrics across these species (e.g., genetic diversity, population structure, fine‐scale genetic structure), plus we estimated the rarely used variance in genetic diversity among populations. We used a multivariate, maximum likelihood, multimodel inference approach to explore the relative influence of life history traits and range size on patterns of neutral genetic diversity.

Results

We found that pioneer and narrow range species had lower levels but greater variance in genetic diversity—signs of founder effects and stronger genetic drift. Animal‐dispersed species had lower population differentiation, indicating extensive gene flow. Abiotically dispersed and pioneer species had stronger fine‐scale genetic structure, suggesting restricted seed dispersal and family cohort establishment.

Main conclusions

Our multivariable and multispecies approach allows ecologically relevant conclusions, since knowing whether one parameter has an effect, or one species shows a response in isolation, is dependent on the combination of traits expressed by a species. Our study demonstrates the influence of ecological processes on the distribution of genetic variation in tropical trees, and will help guide genetic resource management, and contribute to predicting the impacts of land use change.

     

Population structure of caribou in an ice‐bound archipelago

Aim

Archipelagos provide ideal natural systems for testing the effects of isolation and fragmentation of habitats on the genetic makeup of populations—an important consideration, given that many insular species are of conservation concern. Two theories predominate: Island Biogeography Theory (IBT) posits that proximity to the mainland drives the potential for migrants and gene flow. The Central Marginal Hypothesis (CMH) predicts that island populations at the periphery of a species range may experience low gene flow, small population size and high rates of genetic drift. We investigated population genetic structure, genetic diversity and key drivers of diversity for Arctic island‐dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Our aim was to inform intraspecific units for conservation and decipher how IBT and CMH could act in an archipelago where isolation is highly variable due to sea ice and open water.

Location

Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Canada (Latitude, 55–82°N; Longitude, 61–123°W).

Methods

We genotyped 447 caribou at 16 microsatellite loci; these caribou represented two subspecies (R. t. groenlandicus, R. t. pearyi) and three designatable units. We used hierarchical Bayesian clustering and ordination to determine genetic groups. We evaluated the influence of ecological and geographic variables on genetic diversity using linear mixed‐effects models and compared diversity among mainland and island herds.

Results

Bayesian clustering revealed nine genetic clusters with differentiation among and within caribou subspecies. Genetic differentiation was explained predominantly by isolation‐by‐distance across all caribou, even at the scale of subspecies. Island caribou were less genetically diverse than mainland herds; individual heterozygosity was negatively correlated with distance‐to‐mainland and the extent of autumn ice‐free coastline and positively correlated with unglaciated island size.

Main conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of hierarchical analysis when investigating genetic population structure. Genetic diversity and its key drivers lend support to both IBT and CMH and highlight the pending threat of climate change for Arctic island caribou.

     

Species‐poor and low‐lying sites are more ecologically unique in a hyperdiverse Amazon region: Evidence from multiple taxonomic groups

Aim

We analysed beta‐diversity patterns of various biological groups simultaneously, from the perspective of site ecological uniqueness. We also investigated whether ecological uniqueness variation could be explained by variations in environmental conditions and spatial variables.

Data

Central Amazonia.

Methods

We estimated the total beta diversity and ecological uniqueness for 14 biological groups, including plants and animals, sampled at the same sites on a mesoscale in central Amazonia, Brazil. The uniqueness values for all biological groups were combined in a single matrix (multi‐taxa matrix of site uniqueness), which was then used as a response variable matrix in a partial redundancy analysis. We also investigated differences in the uniqueness patterns between plant and animal groups.

Results

In general, plants showed higher total beta diversity than animals. For plants, uniqueness was explained mainly by environmental conditions, while for animals, uniqueness was also related to spatial variables. Although variation in uniqueness was mainly related to soil clay content, it is difficult to determine a single major environmental variable underlying the variation in uniqueness because the topographical gradient influences many of them, including soil clay content.

Main Conclusion

The uniqueness values were higher in low‐lying areas, indicating that near‐stream sites were more ecologically unique. Despite the lower number of species in the lowlands, their unique biota contributed strongly to the maintenance of the total beta diversity of the area. This finding should be considered in conservation plans that aim to represent and preserve the regional biota. Our approach proved to be useful to analyse and compare the ecological uniqueness of multiple taxa.