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1.

Aim

To assess how environmental, biotic and anthropogenic factors shape native–alien plant species richness relationships across a heterogeneous landscape.

Location

Banks Peninsula, New Zealand.

Methods

We integrated a comprehensive floristic survey of over 1200 systematically located 6 × 6 m plots, with corresponding climate, environmental and anthropogenic data. General linear models examined variation in native and alien plant species richness across the entire landscape, between native‐ and alien‐dominated plots, and within separate elevational bands.

Results

Across all plots, there was a significant negative correlation between native and alien species richness, but this relationship differed within subsets of the data: the correlation was positive in alien‐dominated plots but negative in native‐dominated plots. Within separate elevational bands, native and alien species richness were positively correlated at lower elevations, but negatively correlated at higher elevations. Alien species richness tended to be high across the elevation gradient but peaked in warmer, mid‐ to low‐elevation sites, while native species richness increased linearly with elevation. The negative relationship between native and alien species richness in native‐dominated communities reflected a land‐use gradient with low native and high alien richness in more heavily modified native‐dominated vegetation. In contrast, native and alien richness were positively correlated in very heavily modified alien‐dominated plots, most likely due to covariation along a gradient of management intensity.

Main conclusions

Both positive and negative native–alien richness relationships can occur across the same landscape, depending on the plant community and the underlying human and environmental gradients examined. Human habitat modification, which is often confounded with environmental variation, can result in high alien and low native species richness in areas still dominated by native species. In the most heavily human modified areas, dominated by alien species, both native and alien species may be responding to similar underlying gradients.
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2.

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.
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3.

Aim

Natural range expansions and human‐mediated colonizations usually involve a small number of individuals that establish new populations in novel habitats. In both cases, founders carry only a fraction of the total genetic variation of the source populations. Here, we used native and non‐native populations of the green anole, Anolis carolinensis, to compare the current distribution of genetic variation in populations shaped by natural range expansion and human‐mediated colonization.

Location

North America, Hawaiian Islands, Western Pacific Islands.

Methods

We analysed 401 mtDNA haplotypes to infer the colonization history of A. carolinensis on nine islands in the Pacific Ocean. We then genotyped 576 individuals at seven microsatellite loci to assess the levels of genetic diversity and population genetic differentiation for both the native and non‐native ranges.

Results

Our findings support two separate introductions to the Hawaiian Islands and several western Pacific islands, with subsequent colonizations within each region following a stepping‐stone model. Genetic diversity at neutral markers was significantly lower in the non‐native range because of founder effects, which also contributed to the increased population genetic differentiation among the non‐native regions. In contrast, a steady reduction in genetic diversity with increasing distance from the ancestral population was observed in the native range following range expansion.

Main conclusions

Range expansions cause serial founder events that are the spatial analogue of genetic drift, producing a pattern of isolation‐by‐distance in the native range of the species. In human‐mediated colonizations, after an initial loss of genetic diversity, founder effects appear to persist, resulting in overall high genetic differentiation among non‐native regions but an absence of isolation‐by‐distance. Contrasting the processes influencing the amount and structuring of genetic variability during natural range expansion and human‐mediated biological invasions can shed new light on the fate of natural populations exposed to novel and changing environments.
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4.

Aim

Urbanization broadly affects the phylogenetic and functional diversity of natural communities through a variety of processes including habitat loss and the introduction of non‐native species. Due to the challenge of acquiring direct measurements, these effects have been studied primarily using “space‐for‐time” substitution where spatial urbanization gradients are used to infer the consequences of urbanization occurring across time. The ability of alternative sampling designs to replicate the findings derived using space‐for‐time substitution has not been tested.

Location

Global.

Methods

We contrasted the phylogenetic and functional diversity of breeding bird assemblages in 58 cities worldwide with the corresponding regional breeding bird assemblages estimated using geographic range maps.

Results

Compared to regional assemblages, urban assemblages contained lower phylogenetic diversity, lower phylogenetic beta diversity, a reduction in the least evolutionary distinct species and the loss of the most evolutionarily distinct species. We found no evidence that these effects were related to the presence of non‐native species. Urban assemblages contained fewer aquatic species and fewer aquatic foraging species. The distribution of body size and range size narrowed for urban assemblages with the loss of species at both tails of the distribution, especially large bodied and broadly distributed species. Urban assemblages contained a greater proportion of species classified as passerines, doves or pigeons; species identified as granivores; species that forage within vegetation or in the air; and species with more generalized associations with foraging strata.

Main conclusions

Urbanization is associated with the overall reduction and constriction of phylogenetic and functional diversity, results that largely replicate those generated using space‐for‐time substitution, increasing our confidence in the quality of the combined inferences. When direct measurements are unavailable, our findings emphasize the value of developing independent sampling methods that broaden and reinforce our understanding of the ecological implications of urbanization.
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5.

Aim

The conversion of old‐growth tropical forests into human‐modified landscapes threatens biodiversity worldwide, but its impact on the phylogenetic dimension of remaining communities is still poorly known. Negative and neutral responses of tree phylogenetic diversity to land use change have been reported at local and landscape scales. Here, we hypothesized that such variable responses to disturbance depend on the regional context, being stronger in more degraded rain forest regions with a longer history of land use.

Location

Six regions in Mexico and Brazil.

Methods

We used a large vegetation database (6,923 trees from 686 species) recorded in 98 50‐ha landscapes distributed across two Brazilian and four Mexican regions, which exhibit different degrees of disturbance. In each region, we assessed whether phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities were related to landscape‐scale forest loss, the percentage of shade‐intolerant species (a proxy of local disturbance) and/or the relatedness of decreasing (losers) and increasing (winners) taxa.

Results

Contrary to our expectations, the percentage of forest cover and shade‐intolerant species were weakly related to phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities in all but one region. Loser species were generally as dispersed across the phylogeny as winner species, allowing more degraded, deforested and species‐poorer forests to sustain relatively high levels of evolutionary (phylogenetic) diversity.

Main conclusion

Our findings support previous evidence indicating that traits related to high susceptibility to forest disturbances are convergent or have low phylogenetic signal. More importantly, they reveal that the evolutionary value of disturbed forests is (at least in a phylogenetic sense) much greater than previously thought.
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6.

Aim

We assessed patterns of avian species loss and the role of morpho‐ecological traits in explaining species vulnerability to forest fragmentation in an anthropogenic island system. We also contrasted observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy, which are often used to infer species vulnerability.

Location

Tucuruí Hydroelectric Reservoir, eastern Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

We surveyed forest birds within 36 islands (3.4–2,551.5 ha) after 22 years of post‐isolation history. We applied species–area relationships to assess differential patterns of species loss among three data sets: all species, forest specialists and habitat generalists. After controlling for phylogenetic non‐independence, we used observed and detectability‐corrected estimates of island occupancy separately to build competing models as a function of species traits. The magnitude of the difference between these estimates of island occupancy was contrasted against species detectability.

Results

The rate of species loss as a function of island area reduction was higher for forest specialists than for habitat generalists. Accounting for the area effect, forest fragmentation did not affect the overall number of species regardless of the data set. Only the interactive model including natural abundance, habitat breadth and geographic range size was strongly supported for both estimates of island occupancy. For 30 species with detection probabilities below 30%, detectability‐corrected estimates were at least tenfold higher than those observed. Conversely, differences between estimates were negligible or non‐existent for all 31 species with detection probabilities exceeding 45.5%.

Main conclusions

Predicted decay of avian species richness induced by forest loss is affected by the degree of habitat specialisation of the species under consideration, and may be unrelated to forest fragmentation per se. Natural abundance was the main predictor of species island occupancy, although habitat breadth and geographic range size also played a role. We caution against using occupancy models for low‐detectability species, because overestimates of island occupancy reduce the power of species‐level predictions of vulnerability.
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7.

Aim

Floristic and faunal diversity fall within species assemblages that can be grouped into distinct biomes or ecoregions. Understanding the origins of such biogeographic assemblages helps illuminate the processes shaping present‐day diversity patterns and identifies regions with unique or distinct histories. While the fossil record is often sparse, dated phylogenies can provide a window into the evolutionary past of these regions. Here, we present a novel phylogenetic approach to investigate the evolutionary origins of present‐day biogeographic assemblages and highlight their conservation value.

Location

Southern Africa.

Methods

We evaluate the evolutionary turnover separating species clusters in space at different time slices to determine the phylogenetic depth at which the signal for their present‐day structure emerges. We suggest present‐day assemblages with distinct evolutionary histories might represent important units for conservation. We apply our method to the vegetation of southern Africa using a dated phylogeny of the woody flora of the region and explore how the evolutionary history of vegetation types compares to common conservation currencies, including species richness, endemism and threat.

Results

We show the differentiation of most present‐day vegetation types can be traced back to evolutionary splits in the Miocene. The woody flora of the Fynbos is the most evolutionarily distinct, and thus has deeper evolutionary roots, whereas the Savanna and Miombo Woodland show close phylogenetic affinities and likely represent a more recent separation. However, evolutionarily distinct phyloregions do not necessarily capture the most unique phylogenetic diversity, nor are they the most species‐rich or threatened.

Main conclusions

Our approach complements analyses of the fossil record and serves as a link to the history of diversification, migration and extinction of lineages within biogeographic assemblages that is separate from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our analysis reveals how phyloregions capture conservation value not represented by traditional biodiversity metrics.
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8.

Aim

Large ‐ scale diversity patterns are generated by different but not mutually exclusive mechanisms. However, understanding of multiple facets of diversity and their determinants in the freshwater realm remains limited. Here, we characterized the geographical gradients, hotspots and spatial congruence of three facets of freshwater molluscan diversity and evaluated the relative importance of three different underlying mechanisms related to the energy, area/environmental heterogeneity and dispersal/historical hypotheses.

Location

China.

Methods

Species richness (SR), functional richness (FR) and taxonomic distinctness (TD, a proxy of phylogenetic diversity) were calculated for 212 drainage basins with a total of 313 molluscan species. Spatial congruence between the diversity facets was evaluated with Pearson correlation coefficient and overlap among hotspots. Multiple linear regression models and variation partitioning were used to assess the relative importance of different mechanisms.

Results

Hotspots of SR and FR were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River and Huai River basins, while high TD values were patchily distributed across China. We found extremely low spatial congruence between TD and both SR and FR, while there was relatively high concordance between SR and FR. All diversity facets were best explained by the dispersal/historical hypothesis with strong unique effects, followed by the factors related to the energy hypothesis. The area/ environmental heterogeneity hypothesis was only weakly supported.

Main conclusions

We found a potentially strong influence of dispersal limitation and evolutionary history on the geographical diversity gradients of Chinese molluscs. This finding contrasts with the general finding that energy‐related factors are the strongest correlates of diversity patterns at large spatial scales. Moreover, our results do not support the idea that using any one diversity component as a surrogate of the others in developing conservation strategies. Instead, an integrative approach embracing multiple facets of diversity should be adopted in the conservation of freshwater biodiversity.
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9.

Aim

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non‐native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human‐dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes?

Location

We explore this question in a >20‐year‐old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large‐scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest.

Methods

We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area.

Results

We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested.

Main conclusions

Our results demonstrate that large‐scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.
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10.

Aim

Darwin's naturalization hypothesis states that dissimilarity to native species may benefit alien species establishment due to empty niches and reduced competition. We here add a new dimension to large‐scale tests of community invasibility, investigating the role that previously established alien species play in facilitating or hindering new invasions in plant communities.

Location

Permanent grasslands across France (including mainland and Corsica), as a receding ecosystem of great conservation importance.

Methods

Focusing on 121 alien plant species occurring in 7,215 vegetation plots, we quantified biotic similarity between new invaders and resident alien species (i.e., alien species with longer residence times) based on phylogenetic and trait distances. Additionally, we calculated distances to native species for each alien species and plot. Using multispecies distribution models, we analysed the influence of these biotic similarity measures and additional covariates on establishment success (presence/absence) of new invaders.

Results

We found that biotic similarity to resident alien species consistently increased establishment success of more recently introduced species. Phylogenetic relatedness to previous invaders had an equally strong positive effect as relatedness to native species. Conversely, trait similarity to natives hindered alien establishment as predicted by Darwin's naturalization hypothesis. These results highlight that various mechanisms may act simultaneously to determine alien establishment success.

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that, with greater similarity among alien species, invasion success increases. Such a pattern may arise either due to actual facilitation among invaders or as a result of weaker competitive interactions among invaders than between native and alien species, leading to an indirect facilitative effect. Alternatively, recent environmental changes (e.g., eutrophication, climate change) may have added new environmental filters. Determining how initial invasions might pave the road for subsequent invasions is crucial for effective multispecies management decisions and contributes a new aspect to our understanding of community assembly.
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11.

Aim

Mega hydroelectric dams have become one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss in the lowland tropics. In these reservoirs, vertebrate studies have focused on local (α) diversity measures, whereas between‐site (β) diversity remains poorly assessed despite its pivotal importance in understanding how species diversity is structured and maintained. Here, we unravel the patterns and ecological correlates of mammal β‐diversity, including both small (SM) and midsized to large mammal species (LM) across 23 islands and two continuous forest sites within a mega hydroelectric reservoir.

Location

Balbina Hydroelectric Dam, Central Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

Small mammals were sampled using live and pitfall traps (48,350 trap‐nights), and larger mammals using camera traps (8,160 trap‐nights). β‐diversity was examined for each group using multiplicative diversity decomposition of Hill numbers, which considers the importance of rare, common and dominant species, and tested to what extent those were related to a set of environmental characteristics measured at different spatial scales.

Results

β‐diversity for both mammal groups was higher when considering species presence–absence. When considering species abundance, β‐diversity was significantly higher for SM than for LM assemblages. Habitat variables, such as differences in tree species richness and percentage of old‐growth trees, were strong correlates of β‐diversity for both SMs and LMs. Conversely, β‐diversity was weakly related to patch and landscape characteristics, except for LMs, for which β‐diversity was correlated with differences in island sizes.

Main conclusions

The lower β‐diversity of LMs between smaller islands suggests subtractive homogenization of this group. Although island size plays a major role in structuring mammal α‐diversity in several land‐bridge islands, local vegetation characteristics were additional key factors determining β‐diversity for both mammal groups. Maintaining the integrity of vegetation characteristics and preventing the formation of a large set of small islands within reservoirs should be considered in long‐term management plans in both existing and planned hydropower development in lowland tropical forests.
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12.

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.
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13.

Aim

Anthropogenic landscape change, such as urbanization, can affect community structure and ecological interactions. Furthermore, changes in ambient temperature and resource availability due to urbanization may affect migratory and non‐migratory species differently. However, the response of migratory species to urbanization is poorly investigated, and knowledge for invertebrates in particular is lacking. Our aim was to investigate whether there was a shift in community structure and phenology of hoverflies in urban landscapes, depending on migratory status.

Location

Switzerland.

Methods

Using a paired design, we compared urban and rural landscapes to investigate the impact of urbanization on the abundance, diversity and phenology of hoverflies. Furthermore, we tested whether migratory and non‐migratory species responded differently to urbanization.

Results

We observed a difference in the response of migratory and non‐migratory hoverfly communities. Although the abundance of hoverflies was higher in the rural ecosystem, driven by a high abundance of migratory species, there was no difference in species richness between the land use types. However, the community structure of non‐migratory species was significantly different between urban and rural ecosystems. The phenology of hoverflies differed between the two ecosystems, with an earlier appearance in the year of migratory species in urban landscapes.

Main conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the response of migratory insect communities to urbanization. We demonstrated that migratory and non‐migratory hoverflies respond differently to urbanization. This highlights the importance of differentiating between trait and mobility groups to understand community assemblage patterns in anthropogenic landscapes. The differences in phenology supports the growing evidence that urbanization not only affects the phenology of vegetation, but also affects the higher trophic levels. Changes in the phenology and community composition of species as a result of anthropogenic landscape change may have important implications for the maintenance of key ecosystem functions, such as pollination.
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14.

Aim

When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps.

Location

The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps).

Methods

We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables.

Results

Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (?20% in species occupancy).

Main conclusions

Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.
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15.

Aim

Modelling the response of β‐diversity (i.e., the turnover in species composition among sites) to environmental variation has wide‐ranging applications, including informing conservation planning, understanding community assembly and forecasting the impacts of climate change. However, modelling β‐diversity is challenging, especially for multiple diversity facets (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity), and current methods have important limitations. Here, we present a new approach for predicting the response of multifaceted β‐diversity to the environment, called Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling (MBM). We illustrate the approach using both a plant diversity dataset from the French Alps and a set of simulated data. We also provide an implementation via an R package.

Location

French Alps.

Methods

For both the French Alps and the simulated communities, we compute β‐diversity indices (e.g., Sørensen dissimilarity, mean functional/phylogenetic pairwise distance) among site pairs. We then apply Gaussian process regression, a flexible nonlinear modelling technique, to predict β‐diversity in response to environmental distance among site pairs. For comparison, we also perform similar analyses using Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM), a well‐established method for modelling β‐diversity in response to environmental distance.

Results

In the Alps, we observed a general increase in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) β‐diversity (i.e., site pairs were more different from each other) as the climatic distance between site pairs increased. GDM performed better for TD and FD when fitting to calibration data, whereas MBM performed better for both when predicting to a validation dataset. For phylogenetic β‐diversity, MBM outperformed GDM in predicting the observed decrease in phylogenetic β‐diversity with increasing climatic distance.

Main conclusions

Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling provides a flexible new approach that expands our capacity to model multiple facets of β‐diversity. Advantages of MBM over existing methods include simpler assumptions, more flexible modelling, potential to consider multiple facets of diversity across a range of diversity indices, and robust uncertainty estimation.
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16.

Aim

Life history traits and range size are key correlates of genetic diversity in trees. We used a standardized sampling protocol to explore how life history traits and range size relate to the magnitude, variance and structuring (both between‐ and within‐population) of genetic diversity in Neotropical tree species.

Location

The Neotropics

Methods

We present a meta‐analysis of new population genetic data generated for 23 Neotropical tree species (=2,966 trees, 86 populations) across a shared and broad geographic area. We compared established population genetic metrics across these species (e.g., genetic diversity, population structure, fine‐scale genetic structure), plus we estimated the rarely used variance in genetic diversity among populations. We used a multivariate, maximum likelihood, multimodel inference approach to explore the relative influence of life history traits and range size on patterns of neutral genetic diversity.

Results

We found that pioneer and narrow range species had lower levels but greater variance in genetic diversity—signs of founder effects and stronger genetic drift. Animal‐dispersed species had lower population differentiation, indicating extensive gene flow. Abiotically dispersed and pioneer species had stronger fine‐scale genetic structure, suggesting restricted seed dispersal and family cohort establishment.

Main conclusions

Our multivariable and multispecies approach allows ecologically relevant conclusions, since knowing whether one parameter has an effect, or one species shows a response in isolation, is dependent on the combination of traits expressed by a species. Our study demonstrates the influence of ecological processes on the distribution of genetic variation in tropical trees, and will help guide genetic resource management, and contribute to predicting the impacts of land use change.
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17.

Aim

Although the negative effects of habitat fragmentation have been widely documented at the landscape scale, much less is known about its impacts on species distributions at the biogeographical scale. We hypothesize that fragmentation influences the large‐scale distribution of area‐ and edge‐sensitive species by limiting their occurrence in regions with fragmented habitats , despite otherwise favourable environmental conditions. We test this hypothesis by assessing the interplay of climate and landscape factors influencing the distribution of the calandra lark, a grassland specialist that is highly sensitive to habitat fragmentation.

Location

Iberia Peninsula, Europe.

Methods

Ecological niche modelling was used to investigate the relative influence of climate/topography, landscape fragmentation and spatial structure on calandra lark distribution. Modelling assumed explicitly a hierarchically structured effect among explanatory variables, with climate/topography operating at broader spatial scales than landscape variables. An eigenvector‐based spatial filtering approach was used to cancel bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation. The information theoretic approach was used in model selection, and variation partitioning was used to isolate the unique and shared effects of sets of explanatory variables.

Results

Climate and topography were the most influential variables shaping the distribution of calandra lark, but incorporating landscape metrics contributed significantly to model improvement. The probability of calandra lark occurrence increased with total habitat area and declined with the number of patches and edge density. Variation partitioning showed a strong overlap between variation explained by climate/topography and landscape variables. After accounting for spatial structure in species distribution, the explanatory power of environmental variables remained largely unchanged.

Main conclusions

We have shown here that landscape fragmentation can influence species distributions at the biogeographical scale. Incorporating fragmentation metrics into large‐scale ecological niche models may contribute for a better understanding of mechanism driving species distributions and for improving predictive modelling of range shifts associated with land use and climate changes.
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18.

Aim

Invasive species are of increasing global concern. Nevertheless, the mechanisms driving further distribution after the initial establishment of non‐native species remain largely unresolved, especially in marine systems. Ocean currents can be a major driver governing range occupancy, but this has not been accounted for in most invasion ecology studies so far. We investigate how well initial establishment areas are interconnected to later occupancy regions to test for the potential role of ocean currents driving secondary spread dynamics in order to infer invasion corridors and the source–sink dynamics of a non‐native holoplanktonic biological probe species on a continental scale.

Location

Western Eurasia.

Time period

1980s–2016.

Major taxa studied

‘Comb jelly’ Mnemiopsis leidyi.

Methods

Based on 12,400 geo‐referenced occurrence data, we reconstruct the invasion history of M. leidyi in western Eurasia. We model ocean currents and calculate their stability to match the temporal and spatial spread dynamics with large‐scale connectivity patterns via ocean currents. Additionally, genetic markers are used to test the predicted connectivity between subpopulations.

Results

Ocean currents can explain secondary spread dynamics, matching observed range expansions and the timing of first occurrence of our holoplanktonic non‐native biological probe species, leading to invasion corridors in western Eurasia. In northern Europe, regional extinctions after cold winters were followed by rapid recolonizations at a speed of up to 2,000 km per season. Source areas hosting year‐round populations in highly interconnected regions can re‐seed genotypes over large distances after local extinctions.

Main conclusions

Although the release of ballast water from container ships may contribute to the dispersal of non‐native species, our results highlight the importance of ocean currents driving secondary spread dynamics. Highly interconnected areas hosting invasive species are crucial for secondary spread dynamics on a continental scale. Invasion risk assessments should consider large‐scale connectivity patterns and the potential source regions of non‐native marine species.
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19.

Aim

Knowledge of expanding and contracting ranges is critical for monitoring invasions and assessing conservation status, yet reliable data on distributional trends are lacking for most freshwater species. We developed a quantitative technique to detect the sign (expansion or contraction) and functional form of range‐size changes for freshwater species based on collections data, while accounting for possible biases due to variable collection effort. We applied this technique to quantify stream‐fish range expansions and contractions in a highly invaded river system.

Location

Upper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Methods

We compiled a 77‐year stream‐fish collections dataset partitioned into ten time periods. To account for variable collection effort among time periods, we aggregated the collections into 100 watersheds and expressed a species’ range size as detections per watershed (HUC) sampled (DPHS). We regressed DPHS against time by species and used an information‐theoretic approach to compare linear and nonlinear functional forms fitted to the data points and to classify each species as spreader, stable or decliner.

Results

We analysed changes in range size for 74 UMNR fishes, including 35 native and 39 established introduced species. We classified the majority (51%) of introduced species as spreaders, compared to 31% of natives. An exponential functional form fits best for 84% of spreaders. Three natives were among the most rapid spreaders. All four decliners were New River natives.

Main conclusions

Our DPHS‐based approach facilitated quantitative analyses of distributional trends for stream fishes based on collections data. Partitioning the dataset into multiple time periods allowed us to distinguish long‐term trends from population fluctuations and to examine nonlinear forms of spread. Our framework sets the stage for further study of drivers of stream‐fish invasions and declines in the UMNR and is widely transferable to other freshwater taxa and geographic regions.
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20.

Aim

To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.

Location

Global.

Methods

Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.

Results

The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.

Main conclusions

Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.
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