Refuges and risks: Evaluating the benefits of an expanded MPA network for mobile apex predators

Aim

Concurrently, assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas and evaluating the degree of risk from humans to key species provide valuable information that can be integrated into conservation management planning. Tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) are a wide‐ranging ecologically important species subject to various threats. The aim of this study was to identify “hotspots” of tiger shark habitat use in relation to protected areas and potential risks from fishing.

Location

Southwest Indian Ocean, east coast of South Africa and Mozambique.

Methods

Satellite tags were fitted to 26 tiger sharks. A subset of 19 sharks with an average period at liberty of 197 (SD = 110) days were analysed using hotspot analysis to identify areas of core habitat use. The spatial and temporal overlap of significant hotspots with current and planned marine protected areas as well as risks from fishing and culling was then calculated.

Results

There was a 5.97% spatial overlap between tiger shark hotspots and marine protected areas, which would increase significantly (p < .05) to 24.36% with the expansion of planned protected areas in South Africa and could be as high as 41.43% if Mozambique similarly expanded neighbouring protected area boundaries. Tiger sharks remained largely coastal, but only showed a spatial overlap of 5.12% with shark culling nets in South Africa. Only three sharks undertook open ocean migrations during which they were more likely to interact with longline fisheries in the region.

Main conclusions

This study demonstrates how spatial information can be used to assess the overlap between marine protected areas and the core habitats of top marine predators and highlights how congruent transnational conservation management can improve the effectiveness of protected areas. Core habitat use of marine apex predators may also be indicative of productive habitats, and therefore, predators such as tiger sharks could act as surrogate species for identifying key habitats to prioritize for conservation planning.

     

Use of predictive habitat modelling to assess the distribution and extent of the current protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats

Aim

To demonstrate the application of predictive species distribution modelling methods to habitat mapping and assessment of percentage area‐based conservation targets.

Location

The NE Atlantic deep sea (UK and Irish extended continental shelf limits).

Methods

MaxEnt modelling of three listed habitats (Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus, 1758) reef (LpReef), Pheronema carpenteri (WyvilleThomson, 1869) aggregations (PcAggs) and Syringammina fragilissima (Brady, 1883) aggregations (SfAggs)), with some pre‐selection of variables by generalized additive modelling. Models are validated using repeated 70/30 build/test data splits using AUC and threshold‐dependent assessment methods. Predicted distribution maps are used to assess the adequacy of existing area closures for the protection of listed habitats and to assess percentage representation of each community within existing MPA networks.

Results

Model performances are rated as fair (LpReef), excellent (PcAggs) and good (SfAggs). Current closures are focused on the protection of cold‐water coral reef and incidentally capture some SfAggs suitable environments, but largely fail to protect PcAggs. Considering the wider network of MPAs in the study region, approximately 23% (LpReef), 2% (PcAggs) and 6% (SfAggs) of the area predicted as suitable for each habitat respectively is contained within an MPA.

Main conclusions

To date, decisions on area closures for the protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats have been based on maps of recorded presence of species that are taken as being indicative of that habitat. Predictive habitat modelling may provide a useful method of better estimating the extent of listed habitats, providing direction for future MPA establishment and a means of assessing MPA network effectiveness against politically set percentage targets. Given the coarse resolution of the model, percentages should be taken as maximal figures, with habitat occurrence likely to be less prevalent in reality.

     

Indirect effects of sea ice loss on summer‐fall habitat and behaviour for sympatric populations of an Arctic marine predator

Aim

Climate change is fundamentally altering habitats, with complex consequences for species across the globe. The Arctic has warmed 2–3 times faster than the global average, and unprecedented sea ice loss can have multiple outcomes for ice‐associated marine predators. Our goal was to assess impacts of sea ice loss on population‐specific habitat and behaviour of a migratory Arctic cetacean.

Location

Arctic Ocean.

Methods

Using satellite telemetry data collected during summer‐fall from sympatric beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) populations (“Chukchi” and “Beaufort” belugas), we applied generalized estimating equations to evaluate shifts in sea ice habitat associations and diving behaviour during two periods: 1993–2002 (“early”) and 2004–2012 (“late”). We used resource selection functions to assess changes in sea ice selection as well as predict trends in habitat selection and “optimal” habitat, based on satellite‐derived sea ice data from 1990 to 2014.

Results

Sea ice cover declined substantially between periods, and Chukchi belugas specifically used significantly lower sea ice concentrations during the late than early period. Use of bathymetric features did not change between periods for either population. Population‐specific sea ice selection, predicted habitat and the amount of optimal habitat also generally did not change during 1990–2014. Chukchi belugas tracked during 2007–2012 made significantly more long‐duration and deeper dives than those tracked during 1998–2002.

Main conclusions

Taken together, our results suggest bathymetric parameters are consistent predictors of summer‐fall beluga habitat rather than selection for specific sea ice conditions during recent sea ice loss. Beluga whales were able to mediate habitat change despite their sea ice associations. However, trends towards prolonged and deeper diving possibly indicate shifting foraging opportunities associated with ecological changes that occur in concert with sea ice loss. Our results highlight that responses by some Arctic marine wildlife can be indirect and variable among populations, which could be included in predictions for the future.

     

In search of relevant predictors for marine species distribution modelling using the MarineSPEED benchmark dataset

Aim

Ideally, datasets for species distribution modelling (SDM) contain evenly sampled records covering the entire distribution of the species, confirmed absences and auxiliary ecophysiological data allowing informed decisions on relevant predictors. Unfortunately, these criteria are rarely met for marine organisms for which distributions are too often only scantly characterized and absences generally not recorded. Here, we investigate predictor relevance as a function of modelling algorithms and settings for a global dataset of marine species.

Location

Global marine.

Methods

We selected well‐studied and identifiable species from all major marine taxonomic groups. Distribution records were compiled from public sources (e.g., OBIS, GBIF, Reef Life Survey) and linked to environmental data from Bio‐ORACLE and MARSPEC. Using this dataset, predictor relevance was analysed under different variations of modelling algorithms, numbers of predictor variables, cross‐validation strategies, sampling bias mitigation methods, evaluation methods and ranking methods. SDMs for all combinations of predictors from eight correlation groups were fitted and ranked, from which the top five predictors were selected as the most relevant.

Results

We collected two million distribution records from 514 species across 18 phyla. Mean sea surface temperature and calcite are, respectively, the most relevant and irrelevant predictors. A less clear pattern was derived from the other predictors. The biggest differences in predictor relevance were induced by varying the number of predictors, the modelling algorithm and the sample selection bias correction. The distribution data and associated environmental data are made available through the R package marinespeed and at http://marinespeed.org .

Main conclusions

While temperature is a relevant predictor of global marine species distributions, considerable variation in predictor relevance is linked to the SDM set‐up. We promote the usage of a standardized benchmark dataset (MarineSPEED) for methodological SDM studies.

     

Integrating multiple data sources for assessing blue whale abundance and distribution in Chilean Northern Patagonia

Aim

Species distribution models are useful tools for depicting important habitat, assessing abundance and orienting conservation efforts. For small populations in poorly studied ecosystems, available data are often scarce and patchy. To overcome this limitation, we aim to evaluate the use of different data types within a hierarchical Bayesian framework with the goal of modelling the abundance and distribution of a small and highly migratory population of blue whale (BW, Balaenoptera musculus) summering in Chilean Northern Patagonian (CNP).

Location

CNP, Eastern South Pacific (ESP).

Methods

We constructed a Bayesian hierarchical species distribution Model (HSDM), combining a binomial N‐mixture model used to model BW groups counts in line‐transect data (2009, 2012 and 2014) with a logistic regression for modelling presence‐availability data (2009–2016), allowing both models to share covariate parameters for borrowing strength in estimations.

Results

Distance to areas of high chlorophyll‐a concentration during spring before summering season (AHCC‐s) was the most important and consistent explanatory variable for assessing BW abundance and distribution in CNP. Incorporating accessorial presence‐only data reduced uncertainty in parameters estimation when comparing with a model using only line‐transect data, although other covariates of secondary importance failed to be retained in this model.

Main conclusions

Our results remark the capability of HSDM for integrating different data types providing a potential powerful tool when data are limited and heterogeneous. Results indicate that AHCC‐s, and possibly thermal fronts, could modulate BW abundance and distribution patterns in CNP. Preliminary model‐based delimitations of possible priority conservation areas for BW in CNP overlap with highly used vessel navigation routes and areas destined to aquaculture.

     

Modelling the distribution and compositional variation of plant communities at the continental scale

Aim

We investigate whether (1) environmental predictors allow to delineate the distribution of discrete community types at the continental scale and (2) how data completeness influences model generalization in relation to the compositional variation of the modelled entities.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used comprehensive datasets of two community types of conservation concern in Europe: acidophilous beech forests and base‐rich fens. We computed community distribution models (CDMs) calibrated with environmental predictors to predict the occurrence of both community types, evaluating geographical transferability, interpolation and extrapolation under different scenarios of sampling bias. We used generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to assess the role of geographical and environmental drivers in compositional variation within the predicted distributions.

Results

For the two community types, CDMs computed for the whole study area provided good performance when evaluated by random cross‐validation and external validation. Geographical transferability provided lower but relatively good performance, while model extrapolation performed poorly when compared with interpolation. Generalized dissimilarity modelling showed a predominant effect of geographical distance on compositional variation, complemented with the environmental predictors that also influenced habitat suitability.

Main conclusions

Correlative approaches typically used for modelling the distribution of individual species are also useful for delineating the potential area of occupancy of community types at the continental scale, when using consistent definitions of the modelled entity and high data completeness. The combination of CDMs with GDM further improves the understanding of diversity patterns of plant communities, providing spatially explicit information for mapping vegetation diversity and related habitat types at large scales.

     

Zero‐sum landscape effects on acorn predation associated with shifts in granivore insect community in new holm oak (Quercus ilex) forests

Aim

Landscape attributes can determine plant–animal interactions via effects on the identity and abundance of the involved species. As most studies have been conducted in a context of habitat loss and fragmentation, we know very little about interaction assembly in new habitats from a landscape approach. This study aimed to test the effect of forest age and connectivity on acorn predation by a guild of predator insects differing in dispersal ability and resilience mechanisms: two weevils (Curculio elephas and C. glandium) and one moth (Cydia fagiglandana) in expanding Quercus ilex forests.

Location

Barcelona, Spain.

Methods

We assessed the proportion of infested acorns and identified the predator at the species level in five patches of connected old forests, connected new forests and isolated new forests. Effects of habitat age and connectivity at three scales (tree, patch and landscape) were analysed using generalized linear mixed‐effects models.

Results

Predation by weevils was positively associated with old connected forests, while moths, with better dispersal ability, were able to predate upon all patches equally. Moreover, C. elephas, the weevil with lower dispersal ability, exhibited colonization credits in the new isolated patches. In spite of these changes in the guild of seed predators, the proportion of infested acorns was non‐significantly different among forests.

Main conclusions

The guild of seed predators may vary depending on forest age and connectivity. However, because those with higher dispersal ability may replace less mobile species, this resulted in zero‐sum effects of landscape attributes on acorn predation (i.e., similar predation rates in well‐connected old forests vs. isolated new forests).

     

Predicting distributions,habitat preferences and associated conservation implications for a genus of rare fishes,seahorses (Hippocampus spp.)

Aim

To identify useful sources of species data and appropriate habitat variables for species distribution modelling on rare species, with seahorses as an example, deriving ecological knowledge and spatially explicit maps to advance global seahorse conservation.

Location

The shallow seas.

Methods

We applied a typical species distribution model (SDM), maximum entropy, to examine the utility of (1) two versions of habitat variables (habitat occurrences vs. proximity to habitats) and (2) three sources of species data: quality research‐grade (RG) data, quality‐unknown citizen science (CS) and museum‐collection (MC) data. We used the best combinations of species data and habitat variables to predict distributions and estimate species–habitat relations and threatened status for seahorse species.

Results

We demonstrated that using “proximity to habitats” and integrating all species datasets (RG, CS and MC) derived models with the highest accuracies among all dataset variations. Based on this finding, we derived reliable models for 33 species. Our models suggested that only 0.4% of potential seahorse range was suitable to more than three species together; seahorse biogeographic epicentres were mainly in the Philippines; and proximity to sponges was an important habitat variable. We found that 12 “Data Deficient” species might be threatened based on our predictions according to IUCN criteria.

Main conclusions

We highlight that using proper habitat variables (e.g., proximity to habitats) is critical to determine distributions and key habitats for low‐mobility animals; collating and integrating quality‐unknown occurrences (e.g., CS and MC) with quality research data are meaningful for building SDMs for rare species. We encourage the application of SDMs to estimate area of occupancy for rare organisms to facilitate their conservation status assessment.

     

Gone with the forest: Assessing global woodpecker conservation from land use patterns

Aim

As a result of their ecological traits, woodpeckers (Picidae, Aves) are highly sensitive to forest cover change. We explored the current land cover in areas of high species richness of woodpeckers to determinate regions where urgent conservation actions are needed. In addition, we identified woodpecker species that are sensitive to forest loss and that have high levels of human habitat modification and low levels of protection (through protected areas) in their distribution ranges.

Location

Global.

Methods

We joined available range maps for all extant 254 woodpecker species with information of their conservation status and tolerances to human habitat modifications and generated a richness map of woodpecker species worldwide. Then, we associated this information (the richness pattern and individual species’ maps) with land cover and protected areas (PAs) maps.

Result

We found that the foremost woodpecker species richness hotspot is in Southeast Asia and is highly modified. At the second species richness hotspot in the eastern Andes, we observed a front of deforestation at its southern extreme and a greater deforested area in its northern extreme but most of its area remains with forest coverage. At the species level, 17 species that are sensitive to forest modification experience extensive deforestation and have low extents of PAs in their ranges.

Main conclusions

The most diverse woodpecker hotspots are mostly occupied by human‐modified landscapes, and a large portion of the species there avoids anthropogenic environments. The level of representation of woodpecker species in PAs is low as a global general pattern, although slightly better in Asia. Our global analysis of threats to woodpecker from land use patterns reiterates the urgent conservation needs for Southeast Asian forests. Finally, based on our results, we recommend a re‐evaluation for inclusion in the Red List of five woodpecker species.

     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Assessing habitat loss and fragmentation and their effects on population viability of forest specialist birds: Linking biogeographical and population approaches

Aim

Biogeographic approaches usually have been developed apart from population ecology, resulting in predictive models without key parameters needed to account for reproductive and behavioural limitations on dispersal. Our aim was to incorporate fully spatially explicit population traits into a classic species distribution model (SDM) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), aiming at conservation purposes.

Location

Southern South America.

Methods

Our analysis incorporates the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population viability and therefore provides insights into how much spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM prediction of habitable habitat. We utilized a well‐studied focal endemic bird of South American temperate rainforests (Scelorchilus rubecula). First, at a large scale, we assessed the historical extent habitat based on climate envelopes in an SDM. Second, we used a land cover change analysis at a regional scale to account for recent habitat loss and fragmentation. Third, we used empirically derived criteria to predict population responses to fragmented forest landscapes to identify actual losses of habitat and population. Then we selected three sites of high conservation value in southern Chile and applied our population model. Finally, we discuss the degree to which spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM output without intervening in the modelling process itself.

Results

We found a historical habitat loss of 39.12% and an additional forest cover loss of 3.03% during 2000–2014; the latter occurred with a high degree of fragmentation, reducing the overall estimation of (1) carrying capacity by ?82.4%, ?33.1% and ?45.1% and (2) estimated number of pairs on viable populations by ?84.1%, ?33.0% and ?54.6% on the three selected sites.

Main conclusion

We conclude that our approach sharpened the SDM prediction on environmental suitability by 54.4%, adjusting the habitable area by adding population parameters through GIS, and allowing to incorporate other phenomena as fragmentation and habitat loss.

     

Identifying the factors that determine the severity and type of alien bird impacts

Aim

To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.

Location

Global.

Methods

Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.

Results

The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.

Main conclusions

Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.

     

Effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation depends on guild

Aim

Protected areas are key conservation tools intended to increase biodiversity and reduce extinction risks of species and populations. However, the degree to which protected areas achieve their conservation goals is generally unknown for many protected areas worldwide. We assess the effect of protected areas on the abundance of 196 common, resident bird species. If protected areas were beneficial to avian biodiversity, we expect landscapes with a higher proportion of protected areas will have higher densities of species compared to landscapes with no protection.

Location

Greater Gauteng region, South Africa.

Methods

We analysed bird survey data collected over regular grid cells across the study area. We estimated bird abundance in relation to the proportion of a grid cell that was protected with the Royle–Nichols model and fitted the model once for each of the species. We examined variation in estimated abundance as a function of avian guild (defined by the type of food a species preferentially ate and its foraging mode) with a regression tree analysis.

Results

Abundance was significantly positively related to the proportion of protected areas in grid cells for 26% of the species, significantly negatively related in 15%, and not significantly related in 59% species. We found three distinct guild groups which differed in their average abundance, after accounting for associated variance. Group 1 consisted of guilds frugivores, ground‐feeders, hawkers, predators, and vegivores and average abundance was strongly positively related to the proportion of protected areas. Group 2 included granivores, and average abundance was strongly negatively related to proportion of protected areas. Group 3 included gleaners only, and average abundance was not related to proportion of protected areas.

Main conclusion

We conclude that the network of protected areas within the greater Gauteng region sustained relatively higher abundances of common birds and thus perform an important conservation role.

     

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

Aim

This study formally evaluates the ability of three models to use geographical data on species distribution to predict the habitat use patterns of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Location

Species and habitats in the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest were investigated.

Methods

Based on empirical data on harvestmen and scorpions, we estimated the strength of species association with preferred habitat and classified them as habitat generalists or habitat specialists. We compared these empirical results with predictions made using data on species range size (model 1), species occurrence in biomes (model 2) and species occurrence in habitats within the biomes (model 3).

Results

We used 1,278 records of eight harvestman and two scorpion species that had specific determination and enough sampling numbers to allow safe identification of habitat specialization. We observed the following: (1) the extension of species occurrence did not influence the strength of species–habitat association (estimated by IndVal), which led us to reject model 1; (2) species habitat specialization derived from occurrences in biomes was 60% coincident with the classification derived from empirical data. This value is not different enough from the value expected by chance for these data, which also led us to reject model 2; and (3) species classification derived from secondary data about the habitats used had a significant coincidence of 80% with the empirical classification, which led us to accept model 3.

Main conclusions

For correct classification of species habitat specialization using secondary distributional data, we recommend that future studies consider using the most accurate information available on the habitats used by species. Especially for megadiverse and understudied groups, information about habitats used is not easy to obtain, so it is important for researchers and institutions to register and disseminate this information, which could support many other studies.

     

Multispecies assessment of core areas and connectivity of desert carnivores in central Iran

Aim

Central Iran is a priority area for biodiversity conservation, which is threatened by encroachment on core habitats and fragmentation by roads. The goal of this study was to identify core areas and connectivity corridors for a set of desert carnivores by predicting habitat suitability and calculating resistant kernel, factorial least‐cost path modelling and graph network indices.

Location

Iran.

Methods

We used an ensemble model (EM) of habitat suitability methods to predict the potential habitats of leopard, cheetah, caracal, wild cat, sand cat and grey wolf and used resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path modelling to identify important core habitats and corridors between patches. We also used a graph network analysis to quantify the importance of each core patch to landscape connectivity.

Results

Potential habitats of the studied carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by prey density, annual precipitation, topographical roughness, shrubland density and anthropogenic factors. Most of the core patches were covered by protected areas and no‐hunting areas. This may be attributed to the relatively high resistance outside protected areas leading to isolated occupied patches. Patch importance to connectivity was significantly correlated with patch extent, density of dispersing individuals and probability of occurrence in the core patch.

Main conclusions

Our findings revealed that prey abundance in core habitat is critically important, and has higher influence than habitat area per se. In addition, our analysis provided the first map of landscape connectivity for multiple species in Iran and revealed that conserving these species requires integrated landscape‐level management to reduce mortality risk and protect core areas and linkages among them. These results will assist the development of multispecies conservation strategies to protect core areas for carnivores.

     

Conservation management and sustainable harvest quotas are sensitive to choice of climate modelling approach for two marine gastropods

Aim

To establish the robustness of two alternative methods for predicting the future ranges and abundances for two wild‐harvested abalone species (Haliotis rubra Donovan 1808 and H. laevigata Leach 1814): single atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) or ensemble‐averaged GCM forecasts.

Location

South Australia.

Methods

We assessed the ability of 20 GCMs to simulate observed seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) between 1980–1999, globally, and regionally for the Indian and Pacific Oceans south of the Equator. We used model rankings to characterize a set of representative climate futures, using three different‐sized GCM ensembles and two individual GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model and the Community Climate System Model, version 3.0). Ecological niche models were then coupled to physiological information to compare forecast changes in area of occupancy, population size and harvest area based on forecasts using the various GCM selection methods, as well as different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and climate sensitivities.

Results

We show that: (1) the skill with which climate models reproduce recent SST records varies considerably amongst GCMs, with multimodel ensemble averages showing closer agreement to observations than single models; (2) choice of GCM, and the decision on whether or not to use ensemble‐averaged climate forecasts, can strongly influence spatiotemporal predictions of range, abundance and fishing potential; and (3) comparable hindcasting skill does not necessarily guarantee that GCM forecasts and ecological and evolutionary responses to these forecast changes, will be similar amongst closely ranked models.

Conclusion

By averaging across an ensemble of seven highly ranked skilful GCMs, inherent uncertainties stemming from GCM differences are incorporated into forecasts of change in species range, abundance and sustainable fishing area. Our results highlight the need to make informed and explicit decisions on GCM choice, model sensitivity and emission scenarios when exploring conservation options for marine species and the sustainability of future harvests using ecological niche models.

     

Congruent phylogeographic patterns in a young radiation of live‐bearing marine snakes: Pleistocene vicariance and the conservation implications of cryptic genetic diversity

Aim

To investigate phylogeographic patterns among and within co‐occurring sea snake species from Australia's endemic viviparous Aipysurus lineage, which includes critically endangered species, and evaluate the conservation implications of geographically structured patterns of genetic divergence and diversity.

Location

Australia's tropical shallow water marine environments spanning four regions: Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), Timor Sea (TS) and coastal WA (WAC).

Methods

Samples from >550 snakes representing all nine nominal Aipysurus group species were obtained from throughout their known Australian ranges. Coalescent phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian molecular dating of mitochondrial DNA, combined with Bayesian and traditional population genetic analyses of 11 microsatellite loci, were used to evaluate genetic divergence and diversity.

Results

Mitochondrial DNA revealed highly congruent phylogeographic breaks among co‐occurring species, largely supported by nuclear microsatellites. For each species, each region was characterized by a unique suite of haplotypes (phylogroups). Divergences between the TS, GoC and/or GBR were invariably shallow and dated as occurring 50,000–130,000 years ago, coinciding with the cyclic Pleistocene emergence of the Torres Strait land bridge. By contrast, sea snakes from coastal WA were consistently highly divergent from other regions and dated as diverging 178,000–526,000 years ago, which was not associated with any known vicariant events.

Main Conclusions

Previously unappreciated highly divergent sea snake lineages in coastal WA potentially represent cryptic species, highlighting this region as a high‐priority area for conservation. The cyclic emergence of the Torres Strait land bridge is consisted with observed divergences between the TS, GoC and/or GBR; however, processes involved in the earlier divergences involving the WAC remain to be determined. The observed strong population genetic structures (as surrogates for dispersal) indicate that sea snakes have limited potential to reverse population declines via replenishment from other sources over time frames relevant to conservation.

     

Interglacial refugia on tropical mountains: Novel insights from the summit rat (Rattus baluensis), a Borneo mountain endemic

Aim

The genetics of organisms currently isolated in refugia has received little attention compared to post‐glacial expansions. We study the population history and connectivity of a rat endemic to montane habitat in Borneo to better understand the history and potential of populations in interglacial mountain refugia.

Location

Sabah, Borneo, Malaysia.

Methods

We performed a field survey of the summit rat (Rattus baluensis) on two mountains, Mt. Kinabalu and Mt. Tambuyukon, its entire known distribution. We sequenced mitogenomes and 27 introns (19 of which were polymorphic) in 49 individuals from both populations. We analysed their current genetic structure and diversity, and inferred their demographic history with approximate Bayesian computation.

Results

Summit rats were tightly associated with mountain mossy forest and scrubland above 2,000 m, facilitating the prediction of their past and future distributions. The genetic analysis supports a Holocene fragmentation of a larger population into smaller ones that are now isolated in interglacial refugia on mountaintops. These findings are consistent with climatic reconstructions and the retreat of upland forest to higher elevations after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), ~21 kya.

Main conclusions

The two isolated populations of summit rats formed through the upland shift of their habitat after the LGM. The current trend of global warming will likely lead to diminishing suitable upland habitat and result in the extinction of the population on Mt. Tambuyukon. The population on Mt. Kinabalu, the higher peak, could persist at higher elevations, highlighting the singular value of high tropical mountains as reservoirs of biodiversity during past and ongoing climate change.

     

Moving from representation to persistence: The capacity of Australia's National Reserve System to support viable populations of mammals

Aim

Species require sufficiently large and connected areas of suitable habitat to support populations that can persist through change. With extensive alteration of unprotected natural habitat, there is increasing risk that protected areas (PAs) will be too small and isolated to support viable populations in the long term. Consequently, this study addresses the urgent need to assess the capacity of PA estates to facilitate species persistence.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We undertake the first assessment of the capacity of the Australian National Reserve System (NRS) to protect 90 mammal species in the long term, given the size and distribution of individual PAs across the landscape relative to species’ habitat and minimum viable area (MVA) requirements and dispersal capabilities.

Results

While all mammal ranges are represented within the NRS, the conservation capacity declined notably when we refined measures of representation within PAs to include species’ habitat and area requirements. The NRS could not support any viable populations for between three and seven species, depending on the MVA threshold used, and could support less than 10 viable populations for up to a third of the species. Planning and managing PAs for persistence emerged as most important for species with large MVA requirements and limited dispersal capabilities.

Main conclusions

The key species characteristics we identify can help managers recognize species at risk within the current PA estate and guide the types of strategies that would best reduce this risk. We reveal that current representation‐based assessments of PA progress are likely to overestimate the long‐term success of PA estates, obscuring vulnerabilities for many species. It is important that conservation planners and managers are realistic and explicit regarding the role played by different sizes and distributions of PAs, and careful in assuming that the representation of a species within a PA equates to its long‐term conservation.

     

Predicting global ascidian invasions

Aim

Many species of ascidians are invasive and can cause both ecological and economic losses. Here, we describe risk assessment for nineteen ascidian species and predict coastal regions that are more vulnerable to arrival and expansion.

Location

Global.

Methods

We used ensemble niche modelling with three algorithms (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and MaxEnt) to predict ecologically suitable areas and evaluated our predictions using independent (area under the curve—AUC) and dependent thresholds (true skill statistics—TSS). Environmental variables were maximum and the range of sea surface temperature, mean salinity and maximum chlorophyll. We used our niche modelling results and a modified invasibility index to compare invasion risk among 15 coastal regions.

Results

Currently, the most invaded regions are in temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Temperate Australasia, which are regions most prone for new invasions. In the tropics, the West and Central Indo‐Pacific are two regions of strong concern, the former with high risk of primary invasion by Botryllus schlosseri and Didemnum perlucidum. In the Southern Hemisphere, the Southwest and Southeast Atlantic are most at risk, both subject to invasion by Botrylloides violaceus, Didemnum vexillum, Molgula manhattensis and Styela clava among others. Regions most at risk of expansion of established invasive species are the Central Indo‐Pacific, Northwest Pacific, Mediterranean and West Indo‐Pacific.

Main conclusions

All regions studied have areas that are suitable and connected to receive new ascidian introductions or that may permit the spread of already established species. Risk comparison of primary introductions and expansion of established introduced ascidians among regions will allow managers to prioritize species of concern for each region both for monitoring future introductions or to enforce control actions towards established species to decrease the risk of regional expansion.