Predicting the epidemic sizes of influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: a statistical method

Background

The epidemic sizes of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B infections vary from year to year in the United States. We use publicly available US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) influenza surveillance data between 1997 and 2009 to study the temporal dynamics of influenza over this period.

Methods and Findings

Regional outpatient surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and virologic surveillance data were combined to define a weekly proxy for the incidence of each strain in the United States. All strains exhibited a negative association between their cumulative incidence proxy (CIP) for the whole season (from calendar week 40 of each year to calendar week 20 of the next year) and the CIP of the other two strains (the complementary CIP) from the start of the season up to calendar week 2 (or 3, 4, or 5) of the next year. We introduce a method to predict a particular strain''s CIP for the whole season by following the incidence of each strain from the start of the season until either the CIP of the chosen strain or its complementary CIP exceed certain thresholds. The method yielded accurate predictions, which generally occurred within a few weeks of the peak of incidence of the chosen strain, sometimes after that peak. For the largest seasons in the data, which were dominated by A/H3N2, prediction of A/H3N2 incidence always occurred at least several weeks in advance of the peak.

Conclusion

Early circulation of one influenza strain is associated with a reduced total incidence of the other strains, consistent with the presence of interference between subtypes. Routine ILI and virologic surveillance data can be combined using this new method to predict the relative size of each influenza strain''s epidemic by following the change in incidence of a given strain in the context of the incidence of cocirculating strains. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The laboratory epidemiological study of the joint circulation of the influenza virus A subtypes A/H1N1/ and A/H3N2/ in Bulgaria]

The National Influenza Center of Bulgaria made the epidemiological analysis of the spread of influenza virus, type A, for the period of 11 years on the basis of mass laboratory investigations. Subtype A (H1N1) was found to be the main factor of epidemics in 1978 and 1982, while the epidemics of 1980, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1988 were mainly caused by subtype A (H3N2). The data of laboratory and epidemiological studies indicated that after 20-year absence influenza virus A, subtype A (H1N1), was found again to circulate among the population of Bulgaria, and in 1978-1988 circulated simultaneously with the previous subtype A (H3N2). The simultaneous circulation of two subtypes of influenza virus was of great importance for the frequency, spread and duration of influenza epidemics.     

Comparative analyses of pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B infections depict distinct clinical pictures in ferrets

Influenza A and B infections are a worldwide health concern to both humans and animals. High genetic evolution rates of the influenza virus allow the constant emergence of new strains and cause illness variation. Since human influenza infections are often complicated by secondary factors such as age and underlying medical conditions, strain or subtype specific clinical features are difficult to assess. Here we infected ferrets with 13 currently circulating influenza strains (including strains of pandemic 2009 H1N1 [H1N1pdm] and seasonal A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses). The clinical parameters were measured daily for 14 days in stable environmental conditions to compare clinical characteristics. We found that H1N1pdm strains had a more severe physiological impact than all season strains where pandemic A/California/07/2009 was the most clinically pathogenic pandemic strain. The most serious illness among seasonal A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 groups was caused by A/Solomon Islands/03/2006 and A/Perth/16/2009, respectively. Among the 13 studied strains, B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 presented the mildest clinical symptoms. We have also discovered that disease severity (by clinical illness and histopathology) correlated with influenza specific antibody response but not viral replication in the upper respiratory tract. H1N1pdm induced the highest and most rapid antibody response followed by seasonal A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1 and seasonal influenza B (with B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 inducing the weakest response). Our study is the first to compare the clinical features of multiple circulating influenza strains in ferrets. These findings will help to characterize the clinical pictures of specific influenza strains as well as give insights into the development and administration of appropriate influenza therapeutics.     

Vaccination against Human Influenza A/H3N2 Virus Prevents the Induction of Heterosubtypic Immunity against Lethal Infection with Avian Influenza A/H5N1 Virus

Annual vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses is recommended for certain individuals that have a high risk for complications resulting from infection with these viruses. Recently it was recommended in a number of countries including the USA to vaccinate all healthy children between 6 and 59 months of age as well. However, vaccination of immunologically naïve subjects against seasonal influenza may prevent the induction of heterosubtypic immunity against potentially pandemic strains of an alternative subtype, otherwise induced by infection with the seasonal strains.Here we show in a mouse model that the induction of protective heterosubtypic immunity by infection with a human A/H3N2 influenza virus is prevented by effective vaccination against the A/H3N2 strain. Consequently, vaccinated mice were no longer protected against a lethal infection with an avian A/H5N1 influenza virus. As a result H3N2-vaccinated mice continued to loose body weight after A/H5N1 infection, had 100-fold higher lung virus titers on day 7 post infection and more severe histopathological changes than mice that were not protected by vaccination against A/H3N2 influenza.The lack of protection correlated with reduced virus-specific CD8+ T cell responses after A/H5N1 virus challenge infection. These findings may have implications for the general recommendation to vaccinate all healthy children against seasonal influenza in the light of the current pandemic threat caused by highly pathogenic avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses.     

Live bird markets of Bangladesh: H9N2 viruses and the near absence of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza

Avian influenza surveillance in Bangladesh has been passive, relying on poultry farmers to report suspected outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza. Here, the results of an active surveillance effort focusing on the live-bird markets are presented. Prevalence of influenza infection in the birds of the live bird markets is 23.0%, which is similar to that in poultry markets in other countries. Nearly all of the isolates (94%) were of the non-pathogenic H9N2 subtype, but viruses of the H1N2, H1N3, H3N6, H4N2, H5N1, and H10N7 subtypes were also observed. The highly pathogenic H5N1-subtype virus was observed at extremely low prevalence in the surveillance samples (0.08%), and we suggest that the current risk of infection for humans in the retail poultry markets in Bangladesh is negligible. However, the high prevalence of the H9 subtype and its potential for interaction with the highly pathogenic H5N1-subtype, i.e., reassortment and attenuation of host morbidity, highlight the importance of active surveillance of the poultry markets.     

Influenza activity in Czechoslovakia and the USSR, 1980-1985

Between 1980 and 1985, Czechoslovakia had experienced 4 and the USSR 3 major influenza outbreaks. Of the 3 epidemic outbreaks in the USSR, 2 were associated with influenza B virus (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) and 1 with influenza A virus of the H3N2 subtype. In the USSR, influenza A (H1N1) virus never predominated as a cause of epidemic during the 5 years period. In Czechoslovakia, 2 epidemics (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) were due to influenza A (H1N1) virus. The epidemic in the 1981/82 season had two waves of unequal heights and a mixed type B and subtype A (H3N2) etiology; a two-wave epidemic associated with isolates of influenza A (H1N1) and influenza B viruses was also recorded in the 1983/84 season. The influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 1983 was of explosive character. All influenza viruses circulating in the two countries between 1980 and 1985 were of the same antigenic profile, but were isolated from the epidemics that occurred in different influenza seasons. The virological surveillance revealed strains of virus closely related to drift variants detected from outbreaks in 1977-1979 and the new variants A/Chile 1/83, A/Philippines 2/82, A/Caen 1/84 and B/USSR 100/83.     

Vaccination against seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus reduces the induction of heterosubtypic immunity against influenza A/H5N1 virus infection in ferrets

Infection with seasonal influenza viruses induces a certain extent of protective immunity against potentially pandemic viruses of novel subtypes, also known as heterosubtypic immunity. Here we demonstrate that infection with a recent influenza A/H3N2 virus strain induces robust protection in ferrets against infection with a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype. Prior H3N2 virus infection reduced H5N1 virus replication in the upper respiratory tract, as well as clinical signs, mortality, and histopathological changes associated with virus replication in the brain. This protective immunity correlated with the induction of T cells that cross-reacted with H5N1 viral antigen. We also demonstrated that prior vaccination against influenza A/H3N2 virus reduced the induction of heterosubtypic immunity otherwise induced by infection with the influenza A/H3N2 virus. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of vaccination strategies and vaccine development aiming at the induction of immunity to pandemic influenza.     

Dynamic patterns of circulating seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza viruses from 2007-2010 in and around Delhi, India

Influenza surveillance was carried out in a subset of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) presenting at an Employee Health Clinic (EHS) at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi (urban) and pediatric out patients department of civil hospital at Ballabhgarh (peri-urban), under the Comprehensive Rural Health Services Project (CRHSP) of AIIMS, in Delhi region from January 2007 to December 2010. Of the 3264 samples tested, 541 (17%) were positive for influenza viruses, of which 221 (41%) were pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 168 (31%) were seasonal influenza A, and 152 (28%) were influenza B. While the Influenza viruses were detected year-round, their types/subtypes varied remarkably. While there was an equal distribution of seasonal A(H1N1) and influenza B in 2007, predominance of influenza B was observed in 2008. At the beginning of 2009, circulation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses was observed, followed later by emergence of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with co-circulation of influenza B viruses. Influenza B was dominant subtype in early 2010, with second wave of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in August-September, 2010. With the exception of pandemic H1N1 emergence in 2009, the peaks of influenza activity coincided primarily with monsoon season, followed by minor peak in winter at both urban and rural sites. Age group analysis of influenza positivity revealed that the percent positivity of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus was highest in >5–18 years age groups (OR 2.5; CI = 1.2–5.0; p = 0.009) when compared to seasonal influenza. Phylogenetic analysis of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 from urban and rural sites did not reveal any major divergence from other Indian strains or viruses circulating worldwide. Continued surveillance globally will help define regional differences in influenza seasonality, as well as, to determine optimal periods to implement influenza vaccination programs among priority populations.     

Molecular epidemiology of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 influenza virus during a single epidemic season in the United States

To determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of influenza A virus during a single epidemic, we examined whole-genome sequences of 284 A/H1N1 and 69 A/H3N2 viruses collected across the continental United States during the 2006-2007 influenza season, representing the largest study of its kind undertaken to date. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that multiple clades of both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 entered and co-circulated in the United States during this season, even in localities that are distant from major metropolitan areas, and with no clear pattern of spatial spread. In addition, co-circulating clades of the same subtype exchanged genome segments through reassortment, producing both a minor clade of A/H3N2 viruses that appears to have re-acquired sensitivity to the adamantane class of antiviral drugs, as well as a likely antigenically distinct A/H1N1 clade that became globally dominant following this season. Overall, the co-circulation of multiple viral clades during the 2006-2007 epidemic season revealed patterns of spatial spread that are far more complex than observed previously, and suggests a major role for both migration and reassortment in shaping the epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus.     

Comparative study of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of influenza A virus H3N2, H9N2, and H5N1 subtypes using bioinformatics techniques

To investigate the genomic patterns of influenza A virus subtypes, such as H3N2, H9N2, and H5N1, we collected 1842 sequences of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes from the NCBI database and parsed them into 7 categories: accession number, host species, sampling year, country, subtype, gene name, and sequence. The sequences that were isolated from the human, avian, and swine populations were extracted and stored in a MySQL database for intensive analysis. The GC content and relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) values were calculated using JAVA codes. As a result, correspondence analysis of the RSCU values yielded the unique codon usage pattern (CUP) of each subtype and revealed no extreme differences among the human, avian, and swine isolates. H5N1 subtype viruses exhibited little variation in CUPs compared with other subtypes, suggesting that the H5N1 CUP has not yet undergone significant changes within each host species. Moreover, some observations may be relevant to CUP variation that has occurred over time among the H3N2 subtype viruses isolated from humans. All the sequences were divided into 3 groups over time, and each group seemed to have preferred synonymous codon patterns for each amino acid, especially for arginine, glycine, leucine, and valine. The bioinformatics technique we introduce in this study may be useful in predicting the evolutionary patterns of pandemic viruses.     

Retrospective investigation of an influenza A/H1N1pdm outbreak in an Italian military ship cruising in the Mediterranean Sea, May-September 2009

Background

Clinical surveillance may have underestimated the real extent of the spread of the new strain of influenza A/H1N1, which surfaced in April 2009 originating the first influenza pandemic of the 21^st century. Here we report a serological investigation on an influenza A/H1N1pdm outbreak in an Italian military ship while cruising in the Mediterranean Sea (May 24-September 6, 2009).

Methods

The contemporary presence of HAI and CF antibodies was used to retrospectively estimate the extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread across the crew members (median age: 29 years).

Findings

During the cruise, 2 crew members fulfilled the surveillance case definition for influenza, but only one was laboratory confirmed by influenza A/H1N1pdm-specific RT-PCR; 52 reported acute respiratory illness (ARI) episodes, and 183 reported no ARI episodes. Overall, among the 211 crew member for whom a valid serological result was available, 39.3% tested seropositive for influenza A/H1N1pdm. The proportion of seropositives was significantly associated with more crowded living quarters and tended to be higher in those aged <40 and in those reporting ARI or suspected/confirmed influenza A/H1N1pdm compared to the asymptomatic individuals. No association was found with previous seasonal influenza vaccination.

Conclusions

These findings underline the risk for rapid spread of novel strains of influenza A in confined environment, such as military ships, where crowding, rigorous working environment, physiologic stress occur. The high proportion of asymptomatic infections in this ship-borne outbreak supports the concept that serological surveillance in such semi-closed communities is essential to appreciate the real extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread and can constitute, since the early stage of a pandemic, an useful model to predict the public health impact of pandemic influenza and to establish proportionate and effective countermeasures.     

Isolation and identification of swine influenza recombinant A/Swine/Shandong/1/2003(H9N2) virus

Ten influenza virus isolates were obtained from infected pigs from different places in Shandong province showing clinical symptoms from October 2002 to January 2003. All 10 isolates were identified in China's National Influenza Research Center as influenza A virus of H9N2 subtype. The complete genome of one isolate, designated A/Swine/Shandong/1/2003(H9N2), was sequenced and compared with sequences available in GenBank. The results of analyses indicated that the sequence of A/Swine/Shandong/1/2003(H9N2) was similar to those of several chicken influenza viruses and duck influenza viruses recently prevalent in South China. According to phylogenetic analysis of the complete gene sequences, A/Swine/Shandong/1/2003(H9N2) possibly originated from the reassortment of chicken influenza viruses and duck influenza viruses. It was found that the amino acid sequence at the HA cleavage site in Sw/SD/1/2003 is R-S-L-R-G, differing clearly from that of other H9N2 subtype isolates of swine influenza and avian influenza, which is R-S-S-R-G.     

Assessing Antigenic Drift of Seasonal Influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses

Under selective pressure from the host immune system, antigenic epitopes of influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) have continually evolved to escape antibody recognition, termed antigenic drift. We analyzed the genomes of influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains circulating in Thailand between 2010 and 2014 and assessed how well the yearly vaccine strains recommended for the southern hemisphere matched them. We amplified and sequenced the HA gene of 120 A(H3N2) and 81 A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus samples obtained from respiratory specimens and calculated the perfect-match vaccine efficacy using the p _epitope model, which quantitated the antigenic drift in the dominant epitope of HA. Phylogenetic analysis of the A(H3N2) HA1 genes classified most strains into genetic clades 1, 3A, 3B, and 3C. The A(H3N2) strains from the 2013 and 2014 seasons showed very low to moderate vaccine efficacy and demonstrated antigenic drift from epitopes C and A to epitope B. Meanwhile, most A(H1N1)pdm09 strains from the 2012–2014 seasons belonged to genetic clades 6A, 6B, and 6C and displayed the dominant epitope mutations at epitopes B and E. Finally, the vaccine efficacy for A(H1N1)pdm09 (79.6–93.4%) was generally higher than that of A(H3N2). These findings further confirmed the accelerating antigenic drift of the circulating influenza A(H3N2) in recent years.     

Establishment of influenza A virus (H6N1) in minor poultry species in southern China

An H6N1 virus, A/teal/Hong Kong/W312/97 (W312), was isolated during the "bird flu" incident in Hong Kong in 1997. Genetic analysis suggested that this virus might be the progenitor of the A/Hong Kong/156/97 (HK/97) H5N1 virus, as seven of eight gene segments of those viruses had a common source. Continuing surveillance in Hong Kong showed that a W312-like virus was prevalent in quail and pheasants in 1999; however, the further development of H6N1 viruses has not been investigated since 2001. Here we report influenza virus surveillance data collected in southern China from 2000 to 2005 that show that H6N1 viruses have become established and endemic in minor poultry species and replicate mainly in the respiratory tract. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that all H6N1 isolates had W312-like hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes. However, reassortment of internal genes between different subtype virus lineages, including H5N1, H9N2, and other avian viruses, generated multiple novel H6N1 genotypes in different types of poultry. These novel H6N1/N2 viruses are double, triple, or even quadruple reassortants. Reassortment between a W312-like H6N1 virus and an A/quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 (HK/97)-like H9N2 virus simultaneously generated novel H6N2 subtype viruses that were persistent in poultry. Molecular analyses suggest that W312-like viruses may not be the precursors of HK/97 virus but reassortants from an HK/97-like virus and another unidentified H6 subtype virus. These results provide further evidence of the pivotal role of the live poultry market system of southern China in generating increased genetic diversity in influenza viruses in this region.     

Diagnostic Approach for the Differentiation of the Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)v Virus from Recent Human Influenza Viruses by Real-Time PCR

Background

The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1)v virus.

Principal Findings

The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza) and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays), respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material.

Conclusions

We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses.     

Evolution and molecular epidemiology of H9N2 influenza A viruses from quail in southern China, 2000 to 2005

H9N2 influenza viruses have become established and maintain long-term endemicity in terrestrial poultry in Asian countries. Occasionally these viruses transmit to other mammals, including humans. Increasing epidemiological and laboratory findings suggest that quail may be an important host, as they are susceptible to different subtypes of influenza viruses. To better understand the role of quail in influenza virus ecology and evolution, H9N2 viruses isolated from quail during 2000 to 2005 were antigenically and genetically characterized. Our results showed that H9N2 viruses are prevalent year-round in southern China and replicate mainly asymptomatically in the respiratory tract of quail. Genetic analysis revealed that both the G1-like and Ck/Bei-like H9N2 lineages were cocirculating in quail since 2000. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that most of the isolates tested were double- or multiple-reassortant variants, with four G1-like and 16 Ck/Bei-like genotypes recognized. A novel genotype of G1-like virus became predominant in quail since 2003, while multiple Ck/Bei-like genotypes were introduced into quail, wherein they incorporated G1-like gene segments, but none of them became established in this host. Those Ck/Bei-like reassortants generated in quail have then been introduced into other poultry. These complex interactions form a two-way transmission system between quail and other types of poultry. The present study provides evidence that H9N2 and H5N1 subtype viruses have also exchanged gene segments to generate currently circulating reassortants of both subtypes that have pandemic potential. Continuing influenza virus surveillance in poultry is critical to understanding the genesis and emergence of potentially pandemic strains in this region.     

A/H1N1流感—世界关注的焦点

2009年4月,A/H1N1流感在墨西哥和美国暴发。随后,疫情迅速蔓延到美洲、欧洲、亚洲多个国家。A/H1N1流感病毒是一种以前在人或动物身上从未观测到的新病毒。遗传进化和抗原特性分析表明该病毒和猪流感病毒密切相关,与人类的季节性流感病毒有明显区别。但是流行病学信息表明A/H1N1流感病毒只攻击人类,并在人与人之间传播,尚未发现动物向人类传播的情况。本文从A/H1N1流感病毒的生物学特性、临床特征、公共卫生意义等方面全面阐述了A/H1N1流感的最新研究进展,为正确认识和科学防控A/H1N1流感提供参考。