Genetic Prediction: What are the Limits?

The spectre of determinism stalks many of the concerns surrounding the impact of genetic research into both disease and normal behaviour. The ability accurately to predict a person's actions would certainly have profound implications for notions of individuality and free will. But to what extent will the current explosion in genetic research provide more accurate predictors than have been available for millennia in the form of wealth, social status and perceived family resemblance? The genetic research program is at too early a stage to answer this question with confidence, but various indicators tend to point in the same direction: the predictive ability of genetic analysis will generally be low. This conclusion runs counter to widely perceived popular notions. The deconstruction of genetic determinism is an essential safeguard against the real concern that genetic information may be used for discrimination by unscrupulous powers.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Sea-Age Variation in Maiden Atlantic Salmon Spawners: Phenotypic Plasticity or Genetic Polymorphism?

Atlantic salmon exhibit a partially heritable polymorphism in which the morphs are distinguished by the duration and location of the sea-phase of their life-cycle. These morphs co-occur, albeit in characteristically different proportions, in most Scottish rivers and in both the spring and autumn spawner runs; early running fish being generally associated with upland spawning locations while late running fish are associated with lowland spawning. Thus, differences in riverine and marine environment appear to be linked to differences in the relative abundance of the morphs, rather than to the specific morph which is optimally adapted. In this paper, we report a model-based synthetic study aimed at understanding the key dynamic elements which determine the long-term stability of this polymorphism, and thus determine the relative abundance of the various sea-age morphs. Given the recent accumulation of evidence for a genetic basis for the polymorphism, we argue that the key dynamic mechanism which equalises the realized fitness of the sea-age morphs must be one or more morph-specific density dependencies in the riverine phase of the life-history. We explore a number of specific mechanisms, firmly based in known salmon biology, by which such morph-specific density dependence could occur and investigate the robustness of the co-existence which they imply. We conclude that the co-occurrence of multiple sea-age morphs of Atlantic salmon in Scottish rivers is a stable genetic polymorphism, maintained by some combination of physical separation and asymmetric competition between spawners of different morphs or the riverine stages of their offspring or both.     

Genetic Variation in Spatio-Temporal Confined USA300 Community-Associated MRSA Isolates: A Shift from Clonal Dispersion to Genetic Evolution?

Introduction

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) are increasingly isolated, with USA300-0114 being the predominant clone in the USA. Comparative whole genome sequencing of USA300 isolates collected in 2002, 2003 and 2005 showed a limited number of single nucleotide polymorphisms and regions of difference. This suggests that USA300 has undergone rapid clonal expansion without great genomic diversification. However, whole genome comparison of CA-MRSA has been limited to isolates belonging to USA300. The aim of this study was to compare the genetic repertoire of different CA-MRSA clones with that of HA-MRSA from the USA and Europe through comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) to identify genetic clues that may explain the successful and rapid emergence of CA-MRSA.

Materials and Methods

Hierarchical clustering based on CGH of 48 MRSA isolates from the community and nosocomial infections from Europe and the USA revealed dispersed clustering of the 19 CA-MRSA isolates. This means that these 19 CA-MRSA isolates do not share a unique genetic make-up. Only the PVL genes were commonly present in all CA-MRSA isolates. However, 10 genes were variably present among 14 USA300 isolates. Most of these genes were present on mobile elements.

Conclusion

The genetic variation present among the 14 USA300 isolates is remarkable considering the fact that the isolates were recovered within one month and originated from a confined geographic area, suggesting continuous evolution of this clone.     

The Sex Specific Genetic Variation of Energetics in Bank Voles,Consequences of Introgression?

Interaction between mitochondrial and nuclear genomes is expected to affect energetic phenotypes of traits linked to mitochondrial physiology, further influencing the fitness. A rodent, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), has a population structure completely or partially introgressed with mitochondria from its relative, the red vole (M. r utilus). Females that carried either bank vole mitochondria or mitochondria from the introgressed species were repeatedly mated with males of both mtDNA types. We found that in males, but not in females, morpho-physiological phenotypes are affected by sire type, causing decreases in body mass (BM) and basal metabolic rate (BMR; including BM corrected, rBMR) in individuals sired by fathers carrying introgressed mitochondria. Higher effect sizes for the proportion of additive genetic variation (and 5.6, 1.9 and 3.6 times higher narrow sense heritability for BM, BMR and rBMR, respectively), and lower for proportion of environmental variation were detected in progeny of non-introgressed males. Our data indicate that co-adapted and possibly co-introgressed nuclear genes related to energetic physiology have an important role in adaptation to the northern conditions in bank voles, and that sex linked nuclear genes are a potential source for variation in basal metabolic rate.     

Dynamics of House Sparrow Biparental Care: What Contexts Trigger Partial Compensation?

Nest attendance during incubation is characterized by an inequitable division of labor in house sparrows, Passer domesticus, with females spending more time at the nest than males. Previous research has shown that if male contributions are reduced experimentally via testosterone (T) implants, females compensate partially for those reductions, consistent with predictions from most models of negotiated biparental care. In this study, we attempted to identify the cues and contexts generating partial compensation, using data from both unmanipulated parents and pairs with T‐males. Both males and females of this species sometimes leave the nest before their mate returns to relieve them, and we found that these unrelieved departures by unmanipulated individuals occur when partners are on lengthy recesses. Females compensated partially for long male recesses by marginally extending their bouts; most females also slightly reduced their next recess. By contrast, when males left before their mate returned, they left earlier than when they waited for the female. Neither males nor females adjusted their recess lengths after returning to the nest and discovering that their partner was absent. More pronounced changes in nest attendance of unmanipulated parents occurred in the context of ‘visits’, when individuals returned to the nest but then left without relieving their mate. Such visits effectively prolonged the bout of the on‐duty partner and extended the visitor’s recess. Analyses of behavior of T‐males and their mates revealed that T‐males had significantly longer recesses than control males, and that their mates, in turn, had elevated rates of unrelieved departures. T‐males also visited their on‐duty mates more often than control males, whereas female visits to T‐males were rare. Collectively, the predicted changes in female nest attendance associated with lengthy male recesses and male and female visits account reasonably well for the compensatory response of females paired to T‐males. The majority of female compensation was attributable to changes in visit behavior, however, suggesting that much of the negotiation over nest attendance in this species occurs during direct interactions between mates.     

What Maintains the Central North Pacific Genetic Discontinuity in Pacific Herring?

Pacific herring show an abrupt genetic discontinuity in the central North Pacific that represents secondary contact between refuge populations previously isolated during Pleistocene glaciations. Paradoxically, high levels of gene flow produce genetic homogeneity among ocean-type populations within each group. Here, we surveyed variability in mtDNA control-region sequences (463 bp) and nine microsatellite loci in Pacific herring from sites across the North Pacific to further explore the nature of the genetic discontinuity around the Alaska Peninsula. Consistent with previous studies, little divergence (Φ_ST  = 0.011) was detected between ocean-type populations of Pacific herring in the North West Pacific, except for a population in the Yellow Sea (Φ_ST  = 0.065). A moderate reduction in genetic diversity for both mtDNA and microsatellites in the Yellow Sea likely reflects founder effects during the last colonization of this sea. Reciprocal monophyly between divergent mtDNA lineages (Φ_ST  = 0.391) across the Alaska Peninsula defines the discontinuity across the North Pacific. However, microsatellites did not show a strong break, as eastern Bering Sea (EBS) herring were more closely related to NE Pacific than to NW Pacific herring. This discordance between mtDNA and microsatellites may be due to microsatellite allelic convergence or to sex-biased dispersal across the secondary contact zone. The sharp discontinuity between Pacific herring populations may be maintained by high-density blocking, competitive exclusion or hybrid inferiority.     

Genetic Association Studies of Copy-Number Variation: Should Assignment of Copy Number States Precede Testing?

Recently, structural variation in the genome has been implicated in many complex diseases. Using genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays, researchers are able to investigate the impact not only of SNP variation, but also of copy-number variants (CNVs) on the phenotype. The most common analytic approach involves estimating, at the level of the individual genome, the underlying number of copies present at each location. Once this is completed, tests are performed to determine the association between copy number state and phenotype. An alternative approach is to carry out association testing first, between phenotype and raw intensities from the SNP array at the level of the individual marker, and then aggregate neighboring test results to identify CNVs associated with the phenotype. Here, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches using both simulations and real data from a pharmacogenomic study of the chemotherapeutic agent gemcitabine. Our results indicate that pooled marker-level testing is capable of offering a dramatic increase in power (> 12-fold) over CNV-level testing, particularly for small CNVs. However, CNV-level testing is superior when CNVs are large and rare; understanding these tradeoffs is an important consideration in conducting association studies of structural variation.     

Revisiting an Old Riddle: What Determines Genetic Diversity Levels within Species?

Understanding why some species have more genetic diversity than others is central to the study of ecology and evolution, and carries potentially important implications for conservation biology. Yet not only does this question remain unresolved, it has largely fallen into disregard. With the rapid decrease in sequencing costs, we argue that it is time to revive it.What evolutionary forces maintain genetic diversity in natural populations? How do diversity levels relate to census population sizes (Box 1)? Do low levels of diversity limit adaptation to novel selective pressures? Efforts to address such questions spurred the rise of modern population genetics and contributed to the development of the neutral theory of molecular evolution—the null hypothesis for much of evolutionary genetics and comparative genomics [1]–[3]. Yet these questions remain wide open and, for close to two decades, have been neglected [4]. Most notably, little progress has been made to resolve a riddle first pointed out 40 years ago on the basis of allozyme data: the mysteriously narrow range of genetic diversity levels seen across taxa that vary markedly in their census population sizes [5]. This gap in our understanding is glaring, and may hamper efforts at conservation (e.g., [6]).

Box 1. Glossary

Allozymes: Allelic variants of a protein, often detected by differences in gel electrophoresis. Balancing selection: Natural selection that maintains variation longer than expected from genetic drift alone. Census population size: The actual number of individuals in a population; methods to estimate this number vary depending on the species and may involve aerial, transect, or capture/recapture counts. Diversity levels: The measure used here is the probability that a pair of randomly chosen haplotypes differ at a site. Effective population size: The size of an idealized population with some of the same properties as the actual one, e.g., the same rate of genetic drift. Under simplifying assumptions, notably a constant population size and no population structure, this parameter can be estimated from observed diversity levels, given an independent estimate of the mutation rate. Fluctuating selection: When the fitness of an allele changes over time or over space. Genetic draft: A dramatic loss of genetic variation due to strong, frequent selection at nearby sites [8]. Genetic drift: In a finite population, the loss of genetic variation due to the random sampling of gametes at each generation. Local adaptation: Adaptation to a particular environment that is not shared by the entire species. Nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution: A modification of the neutral theory, in which many mutations are slightly deleterious, rather than strictly neutral or strongly deleterious [75]. Neutral theory of molecular evolution: The theory that most genetic variation seen within populations and between species is neutral, and most mutations are either neutral or strongly deleterious [11]. Panmixia: Random mating among individuals, and hence no population structure. Phylogenetically independent contrasts: A statistical method that allows one to compare properties of species controlling for their evolutionary relationship. Purifying (negative) selection: Natural selection that favors the common, fitter allele against rare, deleterious alleles. Selection at linked sites: Selection at sites linked to the locus under consideration, which can affect the population dynamics of alleles at that locus. Silent sites: A general term for synonymous, intronic, and intergenic sites—all sites at which mutations do not change an amino acid. Variation-reducing selection: Selection that leads to a decrease in diversity at linked sites.With the recent technological revolution in sequencing, the data needed to address questions about the determinants of genetic diversity levels are now within reach. As a first step towards reviving these questions, we compile existing estimates of nuclear sequence diversity. These data are highly preliminary, but they underscore how little is known about the narrow span of diversity levels across species or why some species maintain more genetic variation than others [5],[7],[8], and they offer a glimpse of trends that may be worth pursuing.     

What Has Natural Variation Taught Us about Plant Development,Physiology, and Adaptation?

Nearly 100 genes and functional polymorphisms underlying natural variation in plant development and physiology have been identified. In crop plants, these include genes involved in domestication traits, such as those related to plant architecture, fruit and seed structure and morphology, as well as yield and quality traits improved by subsequent crop breeding. In wild plants, comparable traits have been dissected mainly in Arabidopsis thaliana. In this review, we discuss the major contributions of the analysis of natural variation to our understanding of plant development and physiology, focusing in particular on the timing of germination and flowering, plant growth and morphology, primary metabolism, and mineral accumulation. Overall, functional polymorphisms appear in all types of genes and gene regions, and they may have multiple mutational causes. However, understanding this diversity in relation to adaptation and environmental variation is a challenge for which tools are now available.     

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine‐learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree‐based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.     

Genetic versus phenotypic models of selection: can genetics be neglected in a long-term perspective?

Game theoretical concepts in evolutionary biology have been criticized by populations geneticists, because they neglect such crucial aspects as the mating system or the mode of inheritance. In fact, the dynamics of natural selection does not necessarily lead to a fitness maximum or an ESS if genetic constraints are taken into account. Yet, it may be premature to conclude that game theoretical concepts do not have a dynamical justification. The new paradigm of long-term evolution postulates that genetic constraints, which may be dominant in a short-term perspective, will in the long run disappera in the face of the ongoing influx of mutations. Two basic results (see Hammerstein; this issue) seem to reconcile the dynamical approach of long-term population genetics with the static approach of evolutionary game theory: (1) only populations at local fitness optima (Nash strategies) can be long-term stable; and (2) in monomorphic populations, evolutionary stability is necessary and sufficient to ensure long-term dynamic stability. The present paper has a double purpose. On the one hand, it is demonstrated by fairly general arguments that the scope of the results mentioned above extends to non-linear frequency dependent selection, to multiple loci, and to quite general mating systems. On the other hand, some limitations of the theory of long-term evolution will also be stressed: (1) there is little hope for a game theoretical characterization of stability in polymorphic populations; (2) many interesting systems do not admit long-term stable equilibria; and (3) even if a long-term stable equilibrium exists, it is not at all clear whether and how it is attainable by a series of gene substition events.     

The Genetic Code: What Is It Good For? An Analysis of the Effects of Selection Pressures on Genetic Codes

How did the ``universal' genetic code arise? Several hypotheses have been put forward, and the code has been analyzed extensively by authors looking for clues to selection pressures that might have acted during its evolution. But this approach has been ineffective. Although an impressive number of properties has been attributed to the universal code, it has been impossible to determine whether selection on any of these properties was important in the code's evolution or whether the observed properties arose as a consequence of selection on some other characteristic. Therefore we turned the question around and asked, what would a genetic code look like if it had evolved in response to various different selection pressures? To address this question, we constructed a genetic algorithm. We found first that selecting on a particular measure yields codes that are similar to each other. Second, we found that the universal code is far from minimized with respect to the effects of mutations (or translation errors) on the amino acid compositions of proteins. Finally, we found that the codes that most closely resembled real codes were those generated by selecting on aspects of the code's structure, not those generated by selecting to minimize the effects of amino acid substitutions on proteins. This suggests that the universal genetic code has been selected for a particular structure—a structure that confers an important flexibility on the evolution of genes and proteins—and that the particular assignments of amino acids to codons are secondary. Received: 29 December 1998 / Accepted: 8 July 1999