Applying Behavioral Ecology and Behavioral Economics to Conservation and Development Planning: An Example from the Mikea Forest,Madagascar

Governments and non-govermental organizations (NGOs) that plan projects to conserve the environment and alleviate poverty often attempt to modify rural livelihoods by halting activities they judge to be destructive or inefficient and encouraging alternatives. Project planners typically do so without understanding how rural people themselves judge the value of their activities. When the alternatives planners recommend do not replace the value of banned activities, alternatives are unlikely to be adopted, and local people will refuse to participate. Human behavioral ecology and behavioral economics may provide useful tools for generating and evaluating hypotheses for how people value economic activities in their portfolios and potential alternatives. This is demonstrated with a case example from southwestern Madagascar, where plans to create a Mikea Forest National Park began with the elimination of slash-and-burn maize agriculture and the encouragement to plant labor-intensive manioc instead. Future park plans could restrict access to wild tuber patches, hunting small game, and fishing. The value of these activities is considered using observational data informed by optimal foraging theory, and experimental data describing people’s time preference and covariation perception. Analyses suggest that manioc is not a suitable replacement for maize for many Mikea because the two crops differ in terms of labor requirements, delay-to-reward, and covariation with rainfall. Park planners should promote wild tuber foraging and stewardship of tuber patches and the anthropogenic landscapes in which they are found. To conserve small game, planners must provide alternative sources of protein and cash. Little effort should be spent protecting lemurs, as they are rarely eaten and never sold.     

Machinery Risk Assessment for Risk Reduction

New avenues are reviewed and discussed for preventing industrial machine-related injury by means of realistic risk evaluation and reduction processes at the design and application stages of machinery development and use. U.S. guidelines and European standards on machinery risk assessment procedures are described. Applications of risk assessment for machine-related injury risk management and teaching machine-risk control are discussed.     

An Ethnoarchaeological Study of Mobility, Architectural Investment, and Food Sharing among Madagascar's Mikea

Ethnoarchaeology is a field of study that aims to provide the information needed to draw reliable behavioral inferences from archaeological data. In this study, data from four settlement types (permanent villages, forest hamlets, seasonal hamlets, and foraging camps) of a forager–farmer population in southwestern Madagascar are examined from an archaeological perspective. Doing so shows that house size, house post diameter variability, outdoor workspace, trash disposal, and feature diversity jointly sort out settlements of different lengths of occupation. However, the relationship between mobility and material culture is not simply a product of the length of stay; it is also affected by differences in the social environments of settlements of different occupational lengths. Using the behavioral ecology of food sharing, we show that certain architectural changes that ensure privacy are expected to occur as settlements become larger and more permanent. These observations from Madagascar should be applicable to other areas.     

Wind Speed Perception and Risk

Background

How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people''s ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks.

Method

We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt.

Results

Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms.

Conclusion

These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.     

Risk Perception and Energy Production

Mean risk magnitude judgments expressed by Belgian and French students on 107 items combining a particular energy domain (wood and biomass, coal, gas, oil, nuclear, water, wind, geothermal and solar) and a particular aspect of the energy production process (obtaining raw materials, storage of raw materials, transport of raw materials, energy production, waste products related to energy production, energy transport, waste products transport, waste products storage, utilization of energy) are reported, and analyzed. Questions were of the form: What is the level of risk (for health and the environment) associated with the item “Electrical energy production by thermodynamic conversion”? Concerning energy domains, nuclear energy received the highest ratings, almost regardless of the aspect of the energy production process considered (from the extraction of raw materials to the storage of production wastes). This was followed by oil, obtaining the next highest ratings after those for nuclear energy, then gas, considered more risky than biomass and coal. The brand image of these two latter energy sources would be almost as positive as that of water, solar, geothermal and wind energy if a solution could be found to the problem of atmospheric emission of carbon monoxide. Concerning production process aspects, waste products (as well as the transport and storage of waste) received the highest ratings. This is not unrelated to the fact that the vast majority of studies devoted to a particular area or particular aspect have concerned nuclear waste. In contrast, no very high degree of concern was found regarding the energy (electrical) transport aspect.     

Covariation among demographic and climate parameters in whiskered auklets Aethia pygmaea

Annual survival rate and other demographic parameters of whiskered auklets Aethia pygmaea , a small planktivorous seabird, were measured at Buldir Island Alaska during 1992–2003 to provide comparative information for auk life history studies and to test for links among climate, age, productivity and survival. Using two 9  m mistnets, we captured and recaptured 384 adult and 193 sub-adult (one year old, a known-age component of our sample) birds as they arrived at the colony after dark during May and June (1,730  capture events). The best fitting model indicated a lower initial survival rate over the first year following marking (0.708±0.036 SE), and subsequent survival (mean 0.835±0.029) covarying with the Aleutian Low Pressure climate Index, with higher auklet survival in years with weak low pressure over the Aleutian Islands. Annual survival rate varied from 0.726±0.127 in 1998–99 to 0.994±0.077 in 1994–95, rates similar to those previously reported for least A. pusilla and crested auklets A. cristatella . A model based only on recaptures of known-age birds indicated a lower local survival estimate over the first year following marking (age one to two years), with no other age-effects on survival. Breeding propensity by age inferred from recaptures of birds with fully-developed brood patches that were originally marked as sub-adults (one year olds) indicated 53% breeding at age two, 94% breeding at age 3, 97% breeding at age 4 and 100% breeding thereafter. The sex ratio of the sampled birds was significantly male biased (60/40), likely due to differences in behaviour between males and females during the incubation stage. Taken together, our data indicate that whiskered auklet survival and productivity covaried with continuous variation in large-scale climatic conditions, the mechanism being either negative effects of stormy North Pacific weather or indirect effects on food supplies.     

HIV Risk Perception and Behavior among Sex Workers in Three Major Urban Centers of Mozambique

HIV risk perceptions and behaviors of 236 commercial sex workers from three major Mozambican urban centers were studied using the International Rapid Assessment, Response and Evaluation (I-RARE) methodology. All were offered HIV testing and, in Maputo, syphilis testing was offered as well. Sixty-three of the 236 opted for HIV testing, with 30 (48%) testing positive for HIV. In Maputo, all 30 receiving HIV tests also had syphilis testing, with 6 (20%) found to be positive. Results include interview excerpts and qualitative results using I-RARE methodology and AnSWR-assisted analyses of the interviews and focus group sessions.     

Odor Perception and Beliefs about Risk

Although the perceptual response to environmental odors canbe quite variable, such variation has often been attributedto differences in individual sensitivity. An information-processinganalysis of odor perception, however, treats both the receptionand the subsequent evaluation of odor information as determinantsof the perceptual response. Two experiments investigated whethera factor that influenced the evaluation stage affected the judgementof odor quality and the degree of adaptation to the odor. Peoplewere surveyed in order to measure their tacit perceptions ofthe healthfulness or hazardousness of nine common olfactorystimuli, and the instructional context influenced quality perception.In a second experiment subjects were exposed to an ambient odorunder one of three different conditions, and odorant characterizationinfluenced the degree of adaptation to the odor. Subjects whowere led to believe the odor was a natural, healthy extractshowed adaptation; those told that the odor was potentiallyhazardous showed apparent sensitization; while those told thatthe odor was a common olfactory test odorant showed a mixedpattern: some exhibited adaptation, whereas others showed sensitization.However, detection thresholds obtained before and after exposureshowed adaptation effects that are characteristic of continuousexposure. These findings raise the possibility that cognitivefactors may be modulating the overall sensory perception ofodor exposure (i) for some individuals who exhibit extreme sensitivityto odors and (ii) in situations where adaptation to environmentalodors is expected but does not occur. Chem. Senses 21: 447–458,1996.     

Covariation of Mitochondrial Genome Size with Gene Lengths: Evidence for Gene Length Reduction During Mitochondrial Evolution

Reduction of genome size and gene shortening have been observed in a number of parasitic and mutualistic intracellular symbionts. Reduction of coding capacity is also a unifying principle in the evolutionary history of mitochondria, but little is known about the evolution of gene length in mitochondria. The genes for cytochrome c oxidase subunits I–III, cytochrome b, and the large and small subunit rRNAs are, with very few exceptions, always found on the mitochondrial genome. These resident mitochondrial genes can therefore be used to test whether the reduction in gene lengths observed in a number of intracellular symbionts is also seen in mitochondria. Here we show that resident mitochondrial gene products are shorter than their corresponding counterparts in -proteobacteria and, furthermore, that the reduction of mitochondrial genome size is correlated with a reduction in the length of the corresponding resident gene products. We show that relative genomic AT content, which has been identified as a factor influencing gene lengths in other systems, cannot explain gene length/genome size covariance observed in mitochondria. Our data are therefore in agreement with the idea that gene length evolves as a consequence of selection for smaller genomes, either to avoid accumulation of deleterious mutations or triggered by selection for a replication advantage.     

Determinants of condom use among youth in Madagascar

The objective of this study was to identify the key determinants of condom use with regular and casual partners among youth in Madagascar.Data stem from a reproductive health survey conducted in October-December 2000 among a representative sample of 2440 youth aged 15-24 living in Toamasina province. Following theoretical models of behaviour change, logistic regression was used to assess the effect of AIDS awareness,personal risk perception, condom access, perceived condom effectiveness,self-efficacy and social support on condom use. Among sexually experienced youth, only about four in ten males and two in ten females have ever used condoms. Fewer than 15% of youth used a condom in last intercourse with their regular partner. Whether youth will try condoms appears to depend largely on the perceived effectiveness of condoms for family planning, access to a nearby condom source, parental support for condom use, and patterns of risky sexual behaviour. Young males' likelihood of using a condom with a regular partner increases significantly if they perceive condoms to be effective for family planning (OR=11.4; p=0.019). For females, it increases with level of self-efficacy (OR=2 1; p=0.042) and having discussed HIV prevention with someone in the last year (OR=2.8; p=0.022). Among males,condom use with casual partners is significantly higher among those who perceive themselves to be at high risk of sexually transmitted infections(OR=2.3; p=0.014), who believe condoms are effective for family planning(OR=2.8; p=0.048), who have good access to condoms (OR=2.9; p=0.002)and who perceive their parents support condom use (OR=1-7; p=0.048). In conclusion, very few youth in Toamasina are using condoms, highlighting the need to continue and expand adolescent reproductive health interventions. In this low HIV prevalence setting, it is important for these programmes to emphasize that condoms are effective for both pregnancy prevention and STI/HIV prevention.     

Interactions Between Carnivores in Madagascar and the Risk of Disease Transmission

Introduced carnivores exert considerable pressure on native predators through predation, competition and disease transmission. Recent research shows that exotic carnivores negatively affect the distribution and abundance of the native and endangered carnivores of Madagascar. In this study, we provide information about the frequency and distribution of interactions between exotic (dogs and cats) and native carnivores (Eupleridae) in the Betampona Natural Reserve (BNR), Madagascar, using noninvasive camera trap surveys. Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) were the most frequently detected carnivore species within the BNR, and we found that indirect interactions between exotic and native carnivores were frequent (n = 236). Indirect interactions were more likely to occur near the research station (incidence rate ratio = 0.91), which may constitute a disease transmission hot spot for carnivores at BNR. The intervals between capture of native and exotic carnivores suggest that there is potential for pathogen transmission between species in BNR. These capture intervals were significantly shorter near the edge of the reserve (P = 0.04). These data could be used to implement biosecurity measures to monitor interactions and prevent disease transmission between species at the domestic animal and wildlife interface.     

Higher Risk Perception of HIV than of Chlamydia and HPV among Secondary School Students in Two German Cities

Background

Chlamydia and genital human papillomavirus (HPV) are the two most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among teens and young adults in industrialised countries. The majority of adolescents, however, have limited or no knowledge of these infections. Within the context of a cross-sectional survey on awareness and knowledge of sexually transmitted infections, secondary school students attending the 8th grade and above in Bremen and Bremerhaven, two cities in northern Germany, were asked to rate the risk of peers to get infected with HIV, HPV or chlamydia.

Methods

Between October and December 2011, students aged 12–20 years completed an anonymous, self-administered questionnaire at their school. In addition to answering questions on awareness and knowledge of sexually transmitted infections, all students were also asked to rate the risk of peers to get infected with HIV, HPV or chlamydia. Furthermore, those reporting ever having sexual intercourse were asked to rate their own risk of getting infected with each of the three infections.

Results

1,148 students, 55% female, completed the questionnaire. 27% of the students reported having had sexual intercourse. 68% of all students rated the risk of same-aged students to get infected with HIV/AIDS as high/medium. The corresponding proportions for HPV and chlamydia were 19 and 25% respectively. Those reporting ever having sexual intercourse generally perceived their own risk of getting infected with HIV, chlamydia or HPV as lower than that of their peers.

Conclusion

Generally, the risk of getting infected with HIV was perceived as being higher than that of getting infected with HPV or chlamydia, most likely due to the fact that the students were more aware of HIV than of the other two infections. Efforts should be made to improve awareness and knowledge of HPV and chlamydia among school going adolescents, and to make them realize that these are common infections that are preventable.     

Opinion Formation and the Collective Dynamics of Risk Perception

The formation of collective opinion is a complex phenomenon that results from the combined effects of mass media exposure and social influence between individuals. The present work introduces a model of opinion formation specifically designed to address risk judgments, such as attitudes towards climate change, terrorist threats, or children vaccination. The model assumes that people collect risk information from the media environment and exchange them locally with other individuals. Even though individuals are initially exposed to the same sample of information, the model predicts the emergence of opinion polarization and clustering. In particular, numerical simulations highlight two crucial factors that determine the collective outcome: the propensity of individuals to search for independent information, and the strength of social influence. This work provides a quantitative framework to anticipate and manage how the public responds to a given risk, and could help understanding the systemic amplification of fears and worries, or the underestimation of real dangers.     

Affect-Laden Imagery and Risk Taking: The Mediating Role of Stress and Risk Perception

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process.     

Covariation of flower traits and bird pollinator assemblages among populations of Kniphofia linearifolia (Asphodelaceae)

Globally, bird-pollinated plants can be separated into two groups, one consisting of species pollinated by specialist nectarivores, and the other of plants pollinated by occasional nectarivores. There are marked differences in nectar properties among the two groups, implying that there has been pollinator-mediated selection on these traits. This raises the possibility that variation in bird assemblages among populations of a plant species could lead to the evolution of intraspecific variation in floral traits. We examined this hypothesis in Kniphofia linearifolia, a common and widespread plant in southern Africa. Although bees are common visitors to flowers of this species, exclusion of birds from inflorescences led to significant reductions in seed set, indicating that the species is primarily bird-pollinated. We showed that bird pollinator assemblages differ markedly between five different populations of K. linearifolia, and that variation in flower morphology and nectar properties between these populations are associated with the dominant guild of bird visitors at each population. We identified two distinct morphotypes, based on corolla length, nectar volume and nectar concentration, which reflect the bird assemblages found in each type. Further work is needed to establish if a natural geographic mosaic of bird assemblages are the ultimate cause of differentiation in floral traits in this species.     

Perception of Suicide Risk in Mental Health Professionals

This study employed an independent-groups design (4 conditions) to investigate possible biases in the suicide risk perception of mental health professionals. Four hundred participants comprising doctors, nurses and social workers viewed a vignette describing a fictitious patient with a long-term mental illness. The case was presented as being drawn from a sample of twenty similar clinical case reports, of which 10 were associated with an outcome of suicide. The participant tasks were (i) to decide whether the presented vignette was one of those cases or not, and (ii) to provide an assessment of confidence in that decision. The 4 conditions were used to investigate whether the presence of an associated face, and the nature of the emotional state expressed by that face, affected the response profile. In fact, there were no significant differences between conditions, but there was a significant bias across all conditions towards associating the vignette with suicide, despite the base rate being pre-determined at 50%. The bias was more pronounced in doctors and in male respondents. Moreover, many participants indicated substantial confidence in their decisions. The results are discussed in terms of availability bias and over-confidence bias.     

Missionization among the Coastal Chumash of Central California: A Study of Risk Minimization Strategies

Anthropologists have long been interested in missionization, acculturation, and political subjugation of traditional peoples. In recent years scholars have generated voluminous amounts of data on Spanish colonialism and its effects on the native population of the Americas. This article specifically examines the missionization of the Chumash occupying the coastal region of central California. Although the abandonment of Chumash villages occurred over a 40-year period, the vast majority of the Chumash people—over 85 percent—migrated to the missions between 1786 and 1803. We suggest that the decision to move to the missions may have been based on a desire to minimize risk and was considered an acceptable alternative under the pressures of several interrelated catastrophic events: the period between 1780 and 1830 was characterized by high climatic variability, several years of droughts, and significantly elevated sea surface temperatures. This was a particularly difficult period of high subsistence risk, and the traditional Chumash buffers of trade and political alliances failed under intense pressures of missionization. Compounding these conditions were European diseases that decimated the Chumash people. Primary sources used for this research include mission documents and registers produced by Franciscan missionaries between 1786 and 1834. Information on paleoenvironmental conditions is derived from high-resolution dendrochronological and marine sedimentary records.     

People of the Sea: Identity and Descent among the Vezo of Madagascar

People of the Sea: Identity and Descent among the Vezo of Madagascar Rita Astuti. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 188 pp.